Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 210240 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1040 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary will lift north across the area tonight. A stronger cold front crosses the region late Sunday into Sunday night...with high pressure building in for much of the upcoming week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Weak frontal boundary that has been stalled to the south for the last few days is finally lifting northward ahead of the approaching upper trough and surface cold front. This feature has had showers associated with it across west central VA, but the nam showed that the lift with this area of pcpn would weaken as it reaches the northwestern piedmont counties. The radar trend is confirming that the intensity and coverage of the showers is weakening...but can`t rule out a few hundredths as this wave passes the area so added a small chance pop from 3z to 6z for this small area of showers. Once this wave moves through...should see southwest flow aloft and moisture on the increase, but without a lifting mechanism to focus on, not expecting much in the way of rain overnight. Clouds will slowly be on the increase, but much of the clouds will be cirrus overnight but the clouds should thicken towards sun morning. Did adjust temperatures down a few degrees, especially in the east where the sky will remain clear longest and the winds are light. Expect readings in the low to mid 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... The remnant/weak boundary will continue to lift NNE through the area Sun morning. At the same time...a trough digs into the Great Lakes/OH valley...a stronger cold front pushes to the mountains. The more significant cold front will approach from the NW Sun aftn as the upper trough continues to sharpen across the Great Lakes and OH Valley. POPs of 40-60% (shras/tstms) have been maintained across the area for mid-late Sun afternoon (highest inland across VA). Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy Sun w/ highs in the u80s to l90s. The cold front will push off the coast Sun night...w/ any lingering shras/tstms (mainly E of I 95) quickly pushing off the coast during the late evening hours. Sfc hi pres builds into the region late Sun night into Mon bringing drier and much more comfortable wx. Lows Sun night range from the l-m60s nw to the l70s se. Mostly sunny Mon...a bit breezy near the coast into the afternoon...w/ highs in the m80s. Sfc hi pres settles over the fa Mon night through Tue providing continued dry and pleasant wx. Winds turn more NE during the day. Lows Mon night in the u50s-l60s inland to the m-u60s at the coast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure/dry comfortable weather prevails over the local area Tue ngt thru Wed ngt. Lows in the upr 50s to mid 60s Tue ngt, and ranging thru the 60s Wed ngt. Highs in the lower to mid 80s Wed. Upper/surface high pressure locates over the nrn/mid Atlc Thu into Fri, as the next nrn stream trough digs over the upr Midwest and Great Lakes region. An associated cold front pushes into/thru the OH Valley Thu/Thu ngt. Dry and a little more humid on Thu with Highs in the mid to upr 80s. Lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s Thu ngt. The front drops into/thru the Mid Atlc region late Fri thru Sat. Warmer temps and more humidity both days with a slgt chc for pcpn late Fri thru Sat. Highs in the upr 80s to lower 90s both days. Lows 70 to 75 Fri ngt. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions to start off the 00z taf period with light e/se winds and a mstly clear sky across the area. Main issue again tngt will be the potential for fog formation...with a weak gradient and dewpts mainly in the 70s. Included mvfr fog at all terminals except korf, and a tempo group for ifr at ksby where the potential is greatest. Otherwise, dry whether for the first half of the TAF period with chances for shras/tstms increasing through the day Sun as clouds increase ahead of an approaching cold front. A much drier airmass arrives behind the cold front Mon and continues through Wed as high pressure builds over the region. && .MARINE... Late this aftn, winds were ENE 10 kt or less acrs the marine waters, as frontal boundary was laying ovr NC. Flow becomes SE then S arnd 10 knots or less tngt, then S 10 to 15 kt on Sun, as a cold front approaches fm the W. The front pushes acrs the waters Sun evening/ngt, and the combination of low level cold air advection and warm waters will likely result in a period of SCA conditions late Sun ngt thru Mon morning, especially ovr the Ches Bay. NW or N winds are forecast to become 15 to 20 kt during this time period. Waves may briefly bld to 3-4 feet in the lower Ches Bay, with seas mainly 3 to 4 ft, but could briefly reach 5 feet in the nrn cstl waters. SCA conditions will be short lived as northerly winds diminish to 10-15 kt during Mon. Waves will subside to 1-2 ft and seas to 2-4 ft. High pressure blds over the region Mon and Tue, and remaining over the waters thru Thu. Flow becomes onshore, but light at or below 10 kts. The next front approaches the region late Fri. && .EQUIPMENT... Due to an azimuth motor failure, the KAKQ 88D will be out of service through the weekend. The replacement part will arrive on Monday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB NEAR TERM...ESS SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...MAS MARINE...TMG EQUIPMENT...

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