Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KAKQ 210240
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1040 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016
A weak frontal boundary will lift north across the area tonight.
A stronger cold front crosses the region late Sunday into Sunday
night...with high pressure building in for much of the upcoming
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Weak frontal boundary that has been stalled to the south for the
last few days is finally lifting northward ahead of the
approaching upper trough and surface cold front. This feature has
had showers associated with it across west central VA, but the nam
showed that the lift with this area of pcpn would weaken as it
reaches the northwestern piedmont counties. The radar trend is
confirming that the intensity and coverage of the showers is
weakening...but can`t rule out a few hundredths as this wave
passes the area so added a small chance pop from 3z to 6z for this
small area of showers. Once this wave moves through...should see
southwest flow aloft and moisture on the increase, but without a
lifting mechanism to focus on, not expecting much in the way of
rain overnight. Clouds will slowly be on the increase, but much of
the clouds will be cirrus overnight but the clouds should thicken
towards sun morning. Did adjust temperatures down a few degrees,
especially in the east where the sky will remain clear longest and
the winds are light. Expect readings in the low to mid 70s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The remnant/weak boundary will continue to lift NNE through the
area Sun morning. At the same time...a trough digs into the Great
Lakes/OH valley...a stronger cold front pushes to the mountains.
The more significant cold front will approach from the NW Sun
aftn as the upper trough continues to sharpen across the Great
Lakes and OH Valley. POPs of 40-60% (shras/tstms) have been
maintained across the area for mid-late Sun afternoon (highest
inland across VA). Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy Sun w/ highs
in the u80s to l90s.
The cold front will push off the coast Sun night...w/ any lingering
shras/tstms (mainly E of I 95) quickly pushing off the coast
during the late evening hours. Sfc hi pres builds into the region
late Sun night into Mon bringing drier and much more comfortable
wx. Lows Sun night range from the l-m60s nw to the l70s se.
Mostly sunny Mon...a bit breezy near the coast into the
afternoon...w/ highs in the m80s.
Sfc hi pres settles over the fa Mon night through Tue providing
continued dry and pleasant wx. Winds turn more NE during the day.
Lows Mon night in the u50s-l60s inland to the m-u60s at the coast.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure/dry comfortable weather prevails over the local
area Tue ngt thru Wed ngt. Lows in the upr 50s to mid 60s Tue ngt,
and ranging thru the 60s Wed ngt. Highs in the lower to mid 80s
Wed. Upper/surface high pressure locates over the nrn/mid Atlc Thu
into Fri, as the next nrn stream trough digs over the upr Midwest
and Great Lakes region. An associated cold front pushes into/thru
the OH Valley Thu/Thu ngt. Dry and a little more humid on Thu with
Highs in the mid to upr 80s. Lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s Thu
ngt. The front drops into/thru the Mid Atlc region late Fri thru
Sat. Warmer temps and more humidity both days with a slgt chc for
pcpn late Fri thru Sat. Highs in the upr 80s to lower 90s both
days. Lows 70 to 75 Fri ngt.
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions to start off the 00z taf period with light e/se
winds and a mstly clear sky across the area. Main issue again tngt
will be the potential for fog formation...with a weak gradient
and dewpts mainly in the 70s. Included mvfr fog at all terminals
except korf, and a tempo group for ifr at ksby where the potential
is greatest. Otherwise, dry whether for the first half of the TAF
period with chances for shras/tstms increasing through the day Sun
as clouds increase ahead of an approaching cold front. A much
drier airmass arrives behind the cold front Mon and continues
through Wed as high pressure builds over the region.
Late this aftn, winds were ENE 10 kt or less acrs the marine
waters, as frontal boundary was laying ovr NC. Flow becomes SE
then S arnd 10 knots or less tngt, then S 10 to 15 kt on Sun, as
a cold front approaches fm the W. The front pushes acrs the waters
Sun evening/ngt, and the combination of low level cold air
advection and warm waters will likely result in a period of SCA
conditions late Sun ngt thru Mon morning, especially ovr the Ches
Bay. NW or N winds are forecast to become 15 to 20 kt during this
time period. Waves may briefly bld to 3-4 feet in the lower Ches
Bay, with seas mainly 3 to 4 ft, but could briefly reach 5 feet in
the nrn cstl waters. SCA conditions will be short lived as northerly
winds diminish to 10-15 kt during Mon. Waves will subside to 1-2 ft
and seas to 2-4 ft. High pressure blds over the region Mon and Tue,
and remaining over the waters thru Thu. Flow becomes onshore, but
light at or below 10 kts. The next front approaches the region
Due to an azimuth motor failure, the KAKQ 88D will be out of
service through the weekend. The replacement part will arrive on