Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 230241 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 941 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure over the Tennessee Valley tonight will slowly track east across the Carolinas Monday, then turn northeast and move offshore Monday night. The low moves away from the New England coast Tuesday. High pressure builds into the area for the mid week period. A cold front crosses the area early Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Another evening w/ plentiful low level moisture. Only spotty -RA far nrn areas and -DZ elsewhere so far. Occluding lo pres tracking slowly into the srn mountains this evening...w/ area of widespread RA beginning to approach from the SSW. Will have PoPs increasing to 100% SW-NE through the overnight hours. Some MDT/HVY rainfall possible. Temperatures remaining mainly steady in the u40s-l50s...through across far srn/SE VA and NE NC...readings may rise by late tonight. Wind advisory remains in effect for the Lower MD eastern shore and Accomack county VA late tonight for wind ENE gusts over 40 mph. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Models still have different solutions of where the stacked low tracks Monday. GFS tracks it across southern VA then lifts it NE late in the day allowing the warm front to lift north into VA, NAM/SREF/ECMWF keeps the track across NC then slowly turns NE toward sern VA late keeping the warm front just south of the fa. This is important because a large portion of the forecast will all depend on the track of the low and location of the warm front. A GFS solution would favor more dry slotting but run a higher risk for tstms as part of the area would be warm sectored. What the more southern track does is limit any dry slot from cutting off the pcpn Monday as well as limiting thunder chcs. However, it keeps the threat of heavy overrunning rainfall across the north going longer then anticipated. Have gone with more of a southern track keeping the morning wet with likely to categorical pops across VA and high chc pops across NC. As the low pulls toward the coast after 18Z, expect the pops to taper off across the east but continue over the west. Will keep slght chc thunder in mainly east of the I95 corridor given the strong dynamics. Highs range from the low-mid 40s NW zones due to insitu-wedge to the low-mid 60s along the se coast. The low progged to move out into the VACAPES then just off the Delmarva Monday night with lingering spokes of energy rotating around the system. Enough moisture and support for shwrs to continue. Chc to likely pops during the evening will taper off to chc pops after midnight except likely pops continuing across the lower Maryland eastern shore. Lows in the upr 30s NW zones to the mid 40s SE. Low pressure moves slowly NNE off the New England coast Tuesday. The last spoke of energy to rotate around it continues the chc for sct morning showers along the Delmarva. Otw, H5 ridge over the SERN states builds into the area for the mid week period. W to SW flow dries out the column resulting in pt to mostly sunny skies Tuesday and Wednesday with temps remaining above normal. Highs Tuesday in the 50s. Lows mid 30s to lwr 40s. Highs Wednesday in the upr 50s to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A broad trough of low pressure will enter the region Wed night into Thursday as a sfc cold front slides into the area. The front is expected to cross the local area Thursday morning but just how much moisture it has to work with is still up in the air. The GFS is more bullish with pcpn compared to the ECMWF and would provide a better opportunity for meaningful rain areawide. The ECMWF is drier with any pcpn limited to far SE locations. Consensus is to lean closer to the drier ECMWF solution and therefore will have no higher than 30% PoPs Wed night/Thu morning. Lows Wed night in the 40s to near 50. Highs Thursday in the 50s. For Thursday night into next Saturday, the region will be dominated by strong NW flow which will drop temperatures back down into the 40s for highs and lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. The forecast looks to remain dry. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 00Z...A Strong low pressure system near Atlanta GA along with a complex frontal system will move slowly northeast into North Carolina Monday and then off the coast Monday night...impacting the region through Monday night. Widespread LIFR conditions continue across the area. Ceilings are generally below 5 hundred feet but visibilities vary with time and location. Rain moves in later after Midnight into Monday morning. During Monday...improvement to VFR or MVFR can be expected southeast portions as drier air temporarily moves in to that area. Winds increase from the northeast and east late tonight and Monday morning especially SBY and ORF with gusts over 30 knots at SBY. OUTLOOK...The low moves to the northeast of the area with rain continuing on the Lower Maryland Eastern Shore Tuesday morning. High pressure builds in from the southwest to the northeast. There will be a chance for showers Wednesday night and Thursday with broad high pressure building in for late Thursday through Friday. && .MARINE... Low visibility will remain a concern across the marine area into tonight (near zero at times). Weak low pressure currently off the mid-Atlantic coast is providing for NE-N winds between 5-15 kt, except 15-20 knots off the lower MD coast. This increase in NE winds off MD has allowed seas to build to 5 ft already. Instead of issuing a ramp-up SCA, just opted to go ahead and begin the Gale Warning this afternoon. Another wave of low pressure will track across the area late tonight through midday Monday. A strong pressure gradient and modest pressure falls develop late tonight through midday Monday and will be strongest N of Cape Charles, and especially for the ocean N of Parramore Island. Gale warning north of Parramore Island is for E-NE winds of 25-35kt with gusts to around 40kt, with the SCA to the S extending through Tuesday as seas remain aob 5ft. Seas build to 8- 13ft N to 5-7ft S Monday morning in response to the period of strongest wind. SCA flags remain in effect for the Bay/Lower James/York/Rappahannock. The wind will be strongest in the Bay N of New Point Comfort, and low-end gale gusts are possible N of Windmill Point. The low stalls in vicinity of the NJ coast Monday night into Tuesday as high pressure builds in from the NW. The wind should by NW 10-15kt/15-20kt ocean. High pressure gradually builds into the region Tuesday night and slides offshore Wednesday ahead of a cold front. This cold front crosses the coast late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A high surf advisory has been issued for the Maryland beaches for Monday. Some minor beach erosion is expected. Low pressure pushes off the Delmarva coast late tonight through midday Monday resulting in a brief but modestly strong onshore wind. This has the potential to push tidal anomalies to 1.5-2.5ft above normal Monday into Monday night/Tue morn. Some locations including the Atlantic coast from Chincoteague to Ocean City and portions of the middle and upper Bay may come within 0.5ft of minor flooding thresholds during high tide. The most likely location to exceed minor flooding thresholds is Ocean City Monday afternoon. Water levels will come close to the 4.0 ft minor flooding threshold at Ocean City early Monday morning and thus have issued a Coastal Flood Statement to address this possibility. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...High Surf Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM EST Monday for MDZ025. Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Monday for MDZ021>025. NC...None. VA...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Monday for VAZ099. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for ANZ630>638-650- 652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ635- 636. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ630- 631-634. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ632. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Monday to 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ654-656-658. Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR/TMG NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...MPR/TMG LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...LSA MARINE...JDM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.