Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 180724 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 324 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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LATEST MSAS SHOWING HIGH PRES OVR THE REGION WITH THE OLD FRONTAL BNDRY STALLED ALONG THE GULF COAST EXTENDING NE TO A LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. A SCNDRY COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN STATES. LEANED TOWARD THE SREF SOLN ONCE AGAIN. MODELS AGREE IN MOVG THE HIGH OFF THE COAST TDY. UPR LOW OVR ERN CANADA BEGINS TO FILL AND MOVE EAST ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH AND CROSS THE FA THIS AFTRN & EVENING. A WEAK MID LVL S/W PROGGED TO TRACK ALONG THE MTS WITH THIS FRNT. THIS FEATURE PROVIDES JUST ENUF SUPPORT FOR SOME SHWR ACTIVITY ACROSS WRN HALF OF FA WITH THE BEST SPRT OVER THE NWRN MOST CNTYS. KEPT 20 POP WRN HALF OF FA XCPT 30 POP ACROSS NW PIEDMONT. ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE MINIMAL...A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. SOME PTCHY FOG TO START OUT THE DAY WILL YIELD TO PT SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS 75-80.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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FRNT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. MAINLY DRY...XCPT FOR A FEW LINGERING SHWRS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT EARLY. LOWS M50S-L60S. TSCTNS CONT TO SHOW SOME MID & UPR LVL MSTR ACROSS THE AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT ALONG WITH A E-NE WND. DRY AS MODELS DON`T SPRT ANY PCPN. HIGHS M-U70S. LOWS IN THE M50S-L60S. DATA SHOWING MSTR INCRG A BIT ALONG SERN COASTAL SCTNS SAT AS A WEAK TROF PROGGED TO ROTATE WEST AND APPRCH THE COAST SAT MORNING. THIS CUD BE ENUF OF A TRIGGER FOR SOME LGHT SHWRS ACROSS THE SERN COASTAL AREAS. CONFIDENCE RATHER LOW THAT THIS OCCURS...SO KEPT ISLTD POPS ALONG THE SERN CSTL AREAS FOR NOW. TMPS MODERATE TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS. HIGHS U70S-L80S.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MAINLY GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE CNTR OF HI PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN ATLC SAT NGT. WEAK LO PRES WILL LIFT NE OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CST SAT NGT INTO MON MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST DURING THIS PERIOD WITH A MSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. LOWS SAT NGT IN THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS ON SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE SUN NGT AND MON...BRINGING A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD FM THE LWR GRT LKS EWRD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND TUE THRU WED. LOWS WILL RANGE THRU THE 60S SUN NGT...RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S MON NGT...AND RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S TUE NGT. HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S MON...AND MAINLY IN THE LWR TO MID 70S TUE AND WED. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING THROUGH AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BRING THREAT OF SHOWERS/PSBL TSTMS. HWVR...TIMING AND EXPECTED COVERAGE TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND THRU SAT...WITH A SOMEWHAT BREEZY 10-20 KT NE FLOW CONTINUING AT KORF/KECG. OVERALL...STILL EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN THIS PATTERN BUT LIKELY TOO MUCH MIXING AND OVERNIGHT CLOUDINESS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT. && .MARINE...
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SCA FOR SEAS AROUND 5 FT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE VA BORDER THROUGH 10Z (6AM). NE OR E WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS THRU SAT...DUE TO HI PRES BLDNG FM THE GRT LKS EWD AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ARND 15 KT OR LESS THRU THE PERIOD. WAVES WILL BE 1 TO 3 FT AND SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FT THRU FRIDAY. SOME LONGER PERIOD SWELLS (12-15 SEC) WILL CONTINUE TODAY DUE TO DISTANT TC EDOUARD. A LITTLE STRONGER NE OR E WINDS EXPECTED FRI AND FRI NGT DUE TO STRONG HI PRES TO THE NNE. THIS WILL RESULT IN WAVES 2 TO 3 FT (POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR 4 FT MOUTH OF THE BAY)...AND SEAS BLDNG TO 4 TO 5 FT BY LATE FRI INTO SAT.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...JDM MARINE...JDM

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