Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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621 FXUS61 KAKQ 251905 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 305 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled conditions will continue through this evening as an upper level trough crosses the local area from the west. Conditions improve on Friday. Warmer temperatures and chance for showers and thunderstorms will return over the weekend. A cold front will approach from the west on Memorial Day. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Dry slot continuing to fill up w/ BKN CU and developing (SCT) tstms as an upper level trough enters the region...steepening lapse rates. FA remains under marginal risk svr from SPC...main threats from any stms will be gusty winds/hail. Otherwise...VRB clouds/partly sunny into this evening. For the overnight...becoming partly cloudy S w/ any lingering SHRAS waning...mostly cloudy N w/ possible additional ISOLD-SCT SHRAS. Lows from the m50s W to l60s at the immediate coast. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Other than possible ISOLD SHRAs and VRB clouds far NNE locations early Fri as upper level low is slow to reach New England...drying out w/ deep layered WNW flow. Expecting a return of temperatures back to or above normal w/ partly-mostly sunny conditions. Highs mainly 80 to 85F...except u70s at (most of) the beaches. Weak ridge aloft nudges into the region from the WSW Fri night into Sat. Models in a bit better consensus w/ the arrival of weak S/W tracking into the FA by Sat afternoon. Combination of daytime heating and that S/W in WNW flow aloft will likely result in at least SCT convective development. Will have PoPs increasing to 30-50% over most of the FA. SPC has outlooked wrn/central areas of FA SLGT risk svr...other areas marginal svr. Otherwise...partly cloudy Fri night- Sat morning...then becoming mostly cloudy Sat afternoon. Lows from the u50s NW to the low 60s SE. Highs Sat from the m-u70s- around 80F on the eastern shore to the m-u80s inland. Nearly zonal flow aloft remains Sat night into Sun. Another S/W aloft expected to arrive during Sun...which again combined w/ daytime heating likely results in SCT convective development. Lows Sat night ranging through the 60s. Partly sunny Sun w/ highs mainly in the l-m80s (70s at the beaches). Will highlight possible strong to severe tstms in HWO for the weekend. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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The somewhat unsettled weather will continue into Monday with the baroclinic zone nearby and a strong upper jet just north of the area. Expect additional showers and thunderstorms once again on Monday in the cyclonic flow. It will be a warm day with highs in the mid-upper 80s. The front will stall out over North Carolina on Tuesday and may allow for additional showers and storms Tuesday across NE NC and south VA. High presssure builds across the region for Tue Night-Thursday with dry and seasonable conditions expected.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A line of showers and thunderstorms over the piedmont will move eastward late this afternoon, affecting RIC btwn 20-22z. The storms may affect PHF and ORF after 21z, and SBY around 22z. Some gusty winds and small hail are possible with these storms, as well as brief IFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions should dominate as the associated cold front passes through this evening allowing for drying conditions under westerly flow. Friday should be dry with VFR conditions, then sct showers and storms return for Saturday into early next week as the pattern remains somewhat unsettled. && .MARINE... Latest MSAS has the frontal boundary stalled just south of the Albemarle Sound westward to a cold front crossing the mts. The boundary is still progged to lift north as a warm front this morning before the cold front crosses the waters this afternoon and evening. Once again, a challenging forecast as the models continue to show different solutions with respect to the frontal movements. Thus, will basically keep the current forecast going with some minor changes made to the grids and headlines. Consensus suggests several bouts of SCA level winds over the next 24- 36 hours. Thus, elected to keep just one headline through Friday to cover the winds but tweaked directions a bit based off the frontal movements. SW winds 15-20 KTs through this evening become west at the same speeds late tonight and Friday as the cold front moves offshore. Went ahead and added SCA to the Currituck Sound. Data also supports 15-20 kts today across the lower James River so added a SCA headline there. Current sea obs in line with WNA forecast in keeping 4-5 ft seas through Friday across the coastal waters (highest out near 20 NM). Weak high pres builds in for late Fri leading to improving marine conditions. Sub-sca conditions expected Fri night into the weekend. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... The continued onshore flow combined with high astro tides will result in elevated water levels through Friday. The SSE winds continue to pile up the water across the middle Ches Bay so based off the latest data, went ahead and extended the coastal flood advisory for the bay side of the lower Md eastern shore for the next high tide cycle. Also issued coastal flood statements for the Va northern neck and Atlantic coastal waters from OXB-Cape Charles for levels approaching minor flood levels. See CFWAKQ for more details. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ021>023. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for ANZ630>634. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...MRD MARINE...MPR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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