Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KAKQ 230650
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA
250 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017
Canadian high pressure builds into the Mid Atlantic States
through Thursday. A gradual warming trend begins Friday into
the upcoming weekend. A more active weather pattern is
anticipated Sunday night into the first half of next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Winds continue to diminish late this evening under a clear sky.
Expecting winds to become calm away from the water overnight
which will set the stage for chilly readings. Still
anticipating lows of 22-25F north of Interstate 64 (including
interior MD Lower Eastern Shore), 26-28F inland VA/NE NC, and
29-33 far SE VA/NE NC coastal areas.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Canadian high pressure continues to settle over the Mid Atlantic
Region on Thu and then slowly slides offshore Thu night.
Slightly cooler with continued dry conditions Thu/Thu night.
Highs in the upper 40s to around 50F inland/low-mid 40s
immediate coast and MD/VA Eastern Shore. Lows in the upper 20s
to 32F inland /low-mid 30s beaches.
Dry with a gradual warming trend Fri through Sat as high
pressure shifts well offshore, and a warm front lifts northwest
of the area... allowing warm air advection to commence with
winds becoming more S-SW. Temperatures are expected to rebound
to 60-65F most inland areas (mid 50s to lower 60s beaches and
MD/VA Eastern Shore) due to breezy southwest winds gusting to
around 20 mph inland and up to 25 mph MD/VA Eastern Shore.
Overall conditions will be dry as mid-upper level ridging and
decent subsidence aloft dominates (i.e. best shower chances are
well north along the warm front). Otherwise, mid-high clouds
should stream across the region (especially north) in relatively
flat, upper level flow through Fri night. Lows around 50F.
Meanwhile, low pressure exits the Intermountain West into the
Central Plains Fri into Fri night. As the low tracks into the
wrn Midwest on Sat, a secondary warm front is expected to lift
through the area. This will allow for additional warming in
continued southwest sfc winds and a noticeable influx of
moisture as dewpoints increase to around 50F. Although clouds
should clear out across the SE half of the area during the day
(as is typical with a warm frontal passage), aftn cumulus
development and increasing cirrus from the west will keep partly
sunny wording in the forecast. Taking all of the above into
account as well as improved daytime heating with an increasing
sun angle, went with a blend of WPC/MOSGuide for highs on Sat
and bumped up the Eastern Shore due to the southwest winds
present. Expect highs in the mid 70s inland/low- mid 70s beaches).
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Medium range of the forecast period characterized by near to
above normal temperatures, courtesy of arriving mid-level
ridging aloft, and surface high pressure oriented just off the
Mid Atlantic/Southeast Coast. Main weather features of note will
be a series of mid/upper level troughs...bringing a few periods
of scattered light precipitation over the weekend/early next
week. The first of these disturbances traverses across the
central/southern Plains on Saturday, dampening as it crosses
E-NE into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes on Sunday and into the
northeast on Monday. This feature will allow for some isolated
to scattered showers Sunday afternoon into early on Monday. QPF
will be limited with this feature. Instability and weakening
dynamics/forcing remain maximized well off to our N-NW, and will
therefore maintain 40-60% POP over our western/NW tier for some
sct to numerous showers Sunday evening into Monday morning, with
lesser pops for more isolated showers across the SE coastal
plain. Mild southerly flow will keep temps mild, with forecast
highs in the upper 50s to 60s Northern Neck and Lower MD Eastern
Shore...with upper 60s to low 70s inland for the weekend into
early next week.
For the middle of next week...attention turns to a pair of
shortwaves. A second southern stream disturbance is expected to
track east/northeastward from the CA coast...across the Plains
and Mid-South Late Sat to early Monday. This system will
continue to weaken as it pushes across the eastern third of the
CONUS Monday through early Tuesday. Meanwhile, a northern stream
system will drop from the PAC NW toward the northern plains
early Monday, eventually reaching the Great Lakes by the middle
of next week. Models are still split on the evolution of these
systems. The 12z/22 ECMWF and 00z EC Ensembles remains quicker
to dampen these features with the GFS/GEFS a bit stronger/more
amplified. Taking a middle of the road approach remains the
preference at this point, with the resultant blended solution
allowing for continued mild weather Mon to Wed with at least a
small chance for showers on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Shortwave
ridging rebuilds behind this system for Wednesday. Highs remain
mild through the period, with 50s and 60s over the Northern
Neck of VA into MD, with highs well into the 60s to Mid 70s
inland. Early morning lows mainly in the 40s to low 50s southern
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure/fair weather prevails over the region this
morning. A few high clouds at or above 25k feet AGL are
streaming over the region, with little aviation impact. Surface
winds generally north to northeast at or below 10 knots. SKC
conditions expected today as high pressure settles over the
region. Winds become south to southeast this afternoon,
remaining at or below 10 knots.
OUTLOOK...High pressure/fair weather prevails through Saturday.
A storm system approaches from the west on Sunday, with a good
chance of showers late Sunday through Monday.
-- Changed Discussion --Sfc hi pres remains situated from interior New England S into
the mid-Atlantic states. Continuing low end SCAs into the
early/mid morning hours. The high is slow to drift E and off the
coast by this eve. Expecting NNE winds to gradually wane after
through 12-15Z/23...then become more E by late today at ligher
Sfc hi pres remains off the coast tonight...w/ winds becoming SW
Fri and lingering through Sat. Speeds increase to 15-20 knots
by Fri afternoon as a storm system develops over the Midwest.
The next front crosses the waters early next week...w/ relatively
benign marine conditions expected over the weekend in SSW winds
mainly aob 15 kt. Seas averaging 2-3 ft...waves 1-2 ft.
-- End Changed Discussion --
Radar KDOX remains inoperable due to a bad spectrum filter.
Maintenance is expected to begin overnight with an estimated
(though possibly unstable) return to service is now Friday,
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ656-