Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KAKQ 300241
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1041 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016
A frontal boundary will settle into the region from the north
tonight...then dissipate on Tuesday. Meanwhile, a weak tropical
depression will linger off the Carolina coast through Wednesday
morning, before pushing farther out to sea. A cold front will
cross the area Thursday and Thursday night.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Latest surface analysis depicts a weak cold front over the
northern Mid Atlantic region, with still tropical depression 8
southeast 125 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras. Scattered mid
level clouds and a wind shift will accompany the front as it
nudges into the northern local area tonight. Otherwise, quiet
conditions expected and no major changes made to ongoing forecast.
Skies avg mostly clear this evening except partly/variably cloudy
over the SE. Added some patchy fog for interior ne NC overnight in
areas that received rain, closer to the immediate coast think
there will be too much mixing for any fog (could also see some
patchy fog along/west of i-95 but doubt it will be widespread so
did not put into the gridded forecast at this time. Lows avg 70-75
along the coast and 65-70 F inland.
Still not much change to the pattern on Tue, as TD #8 is progged
to strengthen slightly (to become TS Hermine) while drifting W
closer to the coast. Still too weak and with local area remaining
in western side of storm track, little to no impact other than
local beach/rip currents are expected. Will carry just 20-30% POPS
SE, mainly dry elsewhere. Highs around 90 F inland to mid 80s near
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.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tropical Storm Hermine is progged to lift off the NC Outer Banks
Wed...posing little threat to the local area.
Very little change to conditions expected Wed, will have a little
greater chance that some outer rain bands clip the NC coast (will
have a 40% POP there, 20% or less elsewhere). Highs will average
in the u80s- l90s Wed (m80s at the immediate coast)...w/ lows in
the u60s- l70s. A stronger cold front progged to push through the
area Thu, will have ~40% POPS most areas by late Thu am through
Thu aftn. highs near 90 F S to mid 80s N.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A sfc front exits the coast late Thu night as an upper level
trough swings through the region late Thu night into Fri. The
upper level trough could possibly stall overhead as the remnants
of Tropical Depression Nine move up the the Southeast and Carolina
coasts and sfc high pressure builds over the Great Lakes into the
NE CONUS through the weekend. There remains a certain level of
uncertainty regarding the exact track of tropical moisture moving
up the coast (i.e. how far inland or offshore will it be), however
the general consensus is for the Mid Atlantic Region to receive a
very weak glancing blow from this system. The end result will be a
slight chance for showers/thunderstorms across far SE VA and NE NC
for Fri/Sat (both days due to timing/track uncertainty). The ECMWF
model solution takes the tropical moisture out to sea for Sun
while the GFS solution hooks the moisture slightly westward...
hugging the Mid Atlantic/New England coastline. Tried to split the
difference and have carried a slight chance for showers/storms
along the coast on Mon.
High temps will start out slightly below normal Fri/Sat with
readings in the lower 80s (upper 70s beaches due to persistent
onshore winds). Temps gradually moderate twd more seasonal normal
values by Sun/Mon. Low temps running close to normal Thu night as
precip/front exit the coast. Overnight temps then experience a
slight dip with lows in the lower 60s Fri-Sat nights.
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions prevail across the region early this evening. Only
scattered to broken high clouds persist over the southern local
area out ahead of Tropical Depression 8. Surface winds generally
less than 10 knots. A weak frontal boundary drops into the area
tonight. Expect some patchy fog overnight, mainly over the
Piedmont and far south, but not enough to include in TAF sites.
Model soundings suggest less potential for low clouds into the
area overnight than what has occurred over the past 2 days.
Mainly dry weather is expected to continue through Wed other than
isolated to scattered shras/tstms are possible each afternoon/evening
across far SE VA/NE NC (mainly impacting KORF and KECG). A
somewhat higher chance for showers/tstms arrives Thu aftn/early
evening as a cold front pushes through the area. Dry/VFR Fri-Sat.
SCA flags extended for srn coastal waters through 700 PM Wed. Also
added the nrn coastal waters beginning Tue morning through 700 PM
Persistent onshore/NE-E winds (15-20kt south/10-15kt north) and
long period swell occurring from TS Gaston and TD Eight will cause
nearshore seas to build to 5-6ft south/4-5ft north Tue morning
through early Wed evening. Wind speeds in Ches Bay, Currituck
Sound and Ern VA rivers should stay aob 15kt during this
timeframe. However, waves should build to 4ft in the mouth of the
Bay by early Tue aftn through Wed aftn due to the persistent NE-E
and long period swell moving into the Bay from the ocean. Have
issued SCA for 4ft waves in the Bay during the aforementioned
As TD Eight tracks NE and away from the Mid Atlantic coast on Wed,
wind speeds will really start to drop off below 10kt by Wed aftn
and SCA conditions (winds/waves/seas) will drop below criteria.
Wed evening through Thu night, winds remain sub-sca with wind
directions s Wed night, w-nw Thu morning, and n Thu night. Seas
average 2-3ft/1-2ft waves Bay. A frontal boundary is expected to
exit the coast by Fri morning and speeds are expected to increase
to 15-20kt early Fri morning...primarily over the coastal waters
but the Bay may touch these speeds as well (a solid 15kt is
anticipated currently). Seas may build up to 4-5ft south of the
VA/NC border Fri night. Otherwise, seas should average 3-ft
Fri/Fri night...waves 2-3ft.
-- Changed Discussion --Have upgraded to high risk for rip currents Virginia Beach
southward due to long period swell, 4-5 ft nearshore waves, and
favorable swell direction. Moderate risk for rip currents exist
for the northern beaches. Low tide Tuesday occurs between
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Has been a rather hot and dry month of August over much of the
area (quite a contrast to a summer that began very wet). Based on
forecast temperatures for the rest of the month, Richmond and
Norfolk are both going to rank in the top 10 warmest (with a good
chance at being among the top 5 warmest). Richmond has only
received 0.53" of rain for the month (if this were to stand, it
would rank as the 3rd driest on record).
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Tuesday to 1 PM EDT Wednesday
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 7 PM EDT Wednesday
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ656-658.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 7 PM EDT Wednesday