Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 150201 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1001 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Very warm weather continues into Friday before a cold front arrives later in the day. Scattered showers and even an isolated thunderstorm are expected Friday afternoon into the early overnight hours. Temperatures will be slightly cooler, but still above-normal for the weekend with dry conditions. A secondary cold front will push through Sunday night bringing in cooler air for the start of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 1000 PM EDT Thursday... Upper level ridging remains over the Mid-Atlantic region this evening, with a surface high pressure off the Southeast coast. Cirrus gradually moves into the area from the W overnight due to convection W of the mountains. Temps as of 1000 PM ranged from the upper 50s (where winds diminished) to the mid 60s. SW winds remain 5-10 mph tonight which, combined with SCT cloud cover late, should keep temps up overnight with lows in the 50s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 230 PM EDT Thursday... The cold front will approach the state from the west on Friday. Dewpoints will rise into the mid to upper 50s with PWAT values increasing to ~1.25", which isn`t overly impressive, but enough to bring us some rain showers. Expect rain chances to increase around mid-day, with the best chances coming in the mid/late afternoon and into the evening hours. There will be a bit of instability present, so a few rumbles of thunder will be possible in these showers. SPC does have us outlooked in a general thunder risk. Rainfall totals won`t amount to much as this is not looking like a wash out in any sense of the word. Models are generally showing a few hundredths to a tenth or two of an inch across a majority of the area. There may be localized higher amounts if any shower does show convective features. The front will push through from west to east after 00Z/8pm; there could be another area of showers that form along or just ahead of the front. Rain chances end overnight Friday into early Saturday. Slightly drier air will filter in giving way to benign conditions. Temperatures will still be above-normal but not quite as warm as we`ve been seeing lately. Expect highs this weekend to be in the upper 60s to around 70 inland with low to mid 60s along the coast. A second cold front will move through later Sunday. Cloud cover will increase throughout the day ahead of it. The front looks to be mainly dry, though there may be some showers along of just off the coast overnight into early Monday as a weak shortwave also moves offshore to our south. Cooler air will begin to fill in behind the boundary, so low temperatures Sunday night will be in the upper 30s to the west and mid to upper 40s to the east/near the coast. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 230 PM EDT Thursday... An area of low pressure moves into Quebec later Sunday into Monday with a weak shortwave forming along the broad troughiness well back to the west/southwest. There may be a shower or two across the southeast Monday afternoon as this shortwave slides through. Additionally, cooler air will arrive behind the front, so high temperatures on Monday will be closer to normal, topping out in the mid to upper 50s for most locations. Tuesday looks to be the coolest day of the period as northwest flow increases on the backside of the trough. Surface high pressure will also build into the region. Winds will become breezy on Tuesday, with highs only getting into the upper 40s across the north/Eastern Shore and in the lower 50s elsewhere. Overnight temps Monday night and Tuesday night will be chilly, dipping down into the upper 20s across the west Monday night, and around freezing for everyone else. Temperatures will gradually warm back up by mid-week along zonal flow. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 755 PM EDT Thursday... SCT cirrus have moved across much of the area N of ORF/ECG early this evening (due to decaying storms in WV). This cirrus is expected to push E later this evening with additional cirrus moving in from W to E later tonight. Expect VFR conditions with mostly clear skies across SE VA/NE NC into Fri afternoon. However, a cold front approaches the area late Fri into Fri night with scattered showers and isolated storms moving into the area mainly after 18z. This activity is expected to continue into the early overnight hours before tapering off from NW to SE. Temporary VIS restrictions may be possible within the scattered activity. Clouds from the convection spread SE Fri afternoon into Fri night with BKN/OVC conditions (mainly VFR CIGs). MVFR and brief IFR CIGs are possible Fri evening into early Fri night with the convection. SW winds 5-10 kt tonight increase to 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt (highest at ORF/ECG) Fri afternoon, diminishing to 5-10 kt in the evening before becoming N overnight behind the cold front. Outlook: Dry and VFR Saturday through Monday, with a dry cold front crossing the region Sunday night. && .MARINE... As of 230 PM EDT Thursday... Sfc high pressure was centered along the SE CONUS coast this afternoon, ridging NNE toward the local waters. Winds were light with 1 ft waves and 1-2 ft seas. Benign, sub-SCA conditions will prevail through this evening, as high pressure will eventually slide well off the SE coast. S-SW winds will increase to 15-17 kt by late tonight as the high slides offshore. Will likely see gusts to 20 kt for a few hours late tonight on the bay (especially N of New Pt Comfort), but will hold off on SCAs attm. Winds over the open water decrease by a few knots on Fri but it will become a bit gusty on the Rivers, Currituck Sound, and near the land/water interface on the south/west side of the bay during the aftn (when mixing over land is maximized). A few gusts to 20 kt are likely during the aftn-early evening in these areas. Winds become W then NW or N Fri night into Sat morning, with the frontal passage. Prevailing speeds are forecast to remain a few knots below SCA criteria, although there is the potential for a brief period of ~20 kt gusts between 4-10 AM Sat on the bay. Sub-SCA conditions are expected Sat aftn through the rest of the weekend. Widespread SCAs are likely late Mon-Tue in the wake of a much stronger cold FROPA. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JKP NEAR TERM...JKP/RMM SHORT TERM...JKP LONG TERM...JKP AVIATION...RMM MARINE...ERI/TMG

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