Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 261433 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1033 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE...ADJUSTED PRECIP FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WITH ONE BATCH EXITING THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE AND THE NEXT BATCH MOVING ACROSS NE NC AND ERN VA (PRIMARILY EAST OF RICHMOND) ATTM. FOLLOWED A NAM/RUC BLEND WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...WHICH WORKED WELL. MAINTAINED ISOLATED THUNDER FOR MOST OF TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR SCATTERED THUNDER WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF NE NC AND FAR SE VA DURING THE AFTN. ONCE THE SECOND BATCH TO THE SOUTH PUSHES EWD...CLOUDY SKIES WILL BEGIN TO BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST AND BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY/SUNNY DURING THE AFTN. WINDS ON TRACK TO BECOME MORE SLY AND BREEZY BY THIS AFTN WITH HIGHS GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM MFV-AKQ- AVC AND ON INTO CENTRAL NC. N-NW OF THE BOUNDARY GENERALLY COOL/STABLE CONDITIONS EXIST. ALONG/SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WARM/MOIST CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE WITH TEMPS INTO THE 60S. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTH/WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE ENTIRE FA BECOMING "WARM-SECTORED" BY LATE MORNING. SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND HAVE ALSO SEEN SOME ISOLD TSTM ACTIVITY AS WELL WITH LIGHTNING. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS ALONG THE WARM FRONT THROUGH 12Z...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS OVER SW AREAS. EXPECTING SHOWERS (ISOLD TSTMS) TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH 16-18Z AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...THEN ANY LINGERING SHOWERS (ISOLD TSTMS) WILL FAVOR FAR EASTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR ALOFT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST IN A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WARM W/ BREAKS OF SUN THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S MOST LOCATIONS. S-SW WINDS BECOME GUSTY BY AFTN WITH GUSTS AVERAGING 20-25 MPH WITH UP TO 30 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. POPS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 00Z AS THE FRONT ARRIVES...THEN BECOME WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW TO THE LOW 50S NORTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE NW ON FRI AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE AREA...USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF LIFT/MOISTURE TO KEEP PRECIP OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. UPPER TROUGHING OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS AND THE FILLING IN OF ANY CLOUD BREAKS DURING THE AFTN. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 40S TO LOW 50S. SHOWERS PRIMARILY COME TO AN END FRIDAY EVENING...BUT ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHWRS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL ARRIVES. LOWS IN THE LOW 30S NW TO AROUND 40 VA BEACH. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. CONTINUED COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 (OR ROUGHLY NEGATIVE 1.5 STD DEV). NOT EXPECTING ANY TRAVEL IMPACTS FROM THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPS AOA FREEZING. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LOW PRES CONTS TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA SAT NGT...W/ HI PRES AND DRYING/COOL WX SUN. A CDFNT WILL PUSH ACRS THE RGN SUN NGT ACCOMPANIED BY VRB CLDS/LO CHC SHRAS (ESP N PORTION). HI PRES BUILDS ACRS INTO THE RGN MON INTO WED PROVIDING NR SEASONABLE CONDS. LOWS SAT NGT IN THE U20S-M30S. HIGHS SUN U40S-M50S. LOWS SUN NGT 35-40F. HI TEMPS MON/TUE FM THE M50S TO 60S. HIGHS WED FM THE L60S TO ARND 70F. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS. SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA ARE EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL NC/S-CENTRAL VA AND TRACKING NNE. THIS WILL INITIALLY IMPACT RIC PRIOR TO 12Z...AND THEN SLOWLY REACH THE ERN TAF SITES THROUGH THE MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTER 15Z AS ANY IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT AND SCATTER. A SSW WIND OF 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 25-30KT IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURS. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH RA DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF RA BETWEEN 06-15Z FRIDAY. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO 1-2KFT. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO NNE AT 10-20KT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT ORF/PHF/ECG. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE WIND SHIFTS TO N/NW. DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY TRACKS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ACROSS PA AND INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A GENERALLY LOW-END SCA SSW WIND OF 15-25KT PRIMARILY OVER THE MOUTH OF THE BAY...OCEAN...AND CURRITUCK SOUND. THE WIND WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE OCEAN WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT POSSIBLE. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 5-7FT OVER THE OCEAN (HIGHEST N)...WITH 3FT WAVES IN THE BAY. A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL ABRUPTLY TURN TO NNE AT 10-15KT...AND THEN INCREASE TO 20-25KT AS LOW-LEVEL CAA COMMENCES. AN SCA WAS HOISTED FOR THE BAY/LOWER JAMES FOR THE POST-FRONTAL SURGE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO RAISE THIS SCA FOR THE PRE-FRONTAL WIND TODAY. THE REMAINING FLAGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE POST-FRONTAL WIND AS ANY PERIOD OF SUB- SCA CONDITIONS APPEARS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF ~6HR. WIND/WAVES/SEAS SUBSIDE FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-634-650- 652-654. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632-638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...BMD/JDM SHORT TERM...BMD/JDM LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...AJZ

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