Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 170216 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1016 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary remains over the region tonight and Thursday as high pressure builds over the Northeast states. The next cold front affects the area Friday into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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A surface trough is located from the PA/NJ border to the VA Piedmont this evening, with another trough near the Carolina Coast. Meanwhile, Gert is quickly departing to the NE well off the coast. A few lingering isolated showers will drop into nrn tier of the area late this evening, but should dissipate around midnight. Warm and humid this evening with temperatures in the mid/upper 70s. Patchy fog is possible tonight, primarily over S-central VA/NE NC and the Ern Shore, although mid-clouds arriving from the W overnight could inhibit coverage and duration of any fog. Lows tonight will generally be in the low/mid 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Moisture pooling along a trof over the mts Thursday morning results in sct convection developing with the activity progged to drift into the Piedmont into the aftern hours. Will carry chc pops for now (highest nwrn most zones). Dry sern zones. Otw, partly to mstly sunny. Highs in the upr 80s to near 90 except 80-85 at the beaches. Frontal boundary begins to sag south across the Mid Atlantic region Thursday night. Enough moisture and support noted to keep chc pops across the area. Lows in the low to mid 70s. Plenty of moisture around the region Friday with a sfc trof providing the trigger for convection to develop. Not expecting a washout, but do think the chc for pcpn will be around all day. Some sun in between individual cells will make it rather humid. Nothing severe expected at this time, but gusty winds and locally heavy downpours possible. Highs upr 80s to lwr 90s. Frontal boundary slowly drifts se across the region Friday night and Saturday keeping the chc for pcpn going. Drier air behind the front will likely cut off any convection across nwrn most zones Sat. Lows Fri night 70-75. Highs Sat 85-90.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Cold front remains stalled near the Mid Atlantic Coast Sat night into Sun morning before sagging well south of the area by Sun aftn. Any showers/storms invof the front will diminish as the front moves farther south of the region. For the rest of Sun into Sun night, sfc high pressure builds north of the area, and although temperatures should experience little to no change, dewpoints will drop around 5 degrees thus feeling a tad cooler. High pressure slides off the coast on Mon... bringing a return to warm air advection and increasingly more humid conditions. Sfc features rather diffuse during the early part of next week, however seabreeze boundaries with plenty of moisture present will keep a chance for thunderstorms in the forecast during this time. Highs generally mid-upper 80s to lower 90s; low-mid 80s beaches. Lows Sat/Sun nights generally upper 60s NW to around 75F SE. Lows Mon/Tue nights generally 70-75F. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Widespread VFR conditions to start the forecast period with only a few scattered showers associated mainly with the sea breeze. Any shower activity quickly diminishes after sunset. The story tonight will once again be the development of sub-VFR aviation conditions due to patchy fog and some stratus. Current thinking is that all sites see a period of MVFR visibility restrictions mainly after 06Z tonight. Also added a period of IFR fog at SBY where high-res models continue to hint at lower visibilities. All fog dissipates quickly after sunrise tomorrow with VFR conditions returning to the region. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms may once again develop tomorrow afternoon, particularly across the piedmont. Generally light and variable winds are anticipated tonight with winds becoming southerly and increasing to 5-10 knots tomorrow afternoon. Outlook: A cold front approaches the region Friday into Saturday bringing another chance for showers, thunderstorms, and sub-VFR conditions. High pressure builds back into the region for the second half of the weekend. && .MARINE... A boundary stalled just south of the Mason-Dixon line will drift nwd tonight into Thu as Hurricane Gert continues to move well away from the Mid Atlantic Coast. Seas average 3ft all waters by this evening...dropping to 2ft in srn waters by Thu morning. Winds generally E-SE 10kt or less this evening through Thu morning. Pressure gradient begins to tighten as a slow-moving cold front tracks into the Ohio Valley Thu, crosses the mountains Fri, and moves over the waters late Fri night into Sat. Winds speeds increase to an average of 10-15kt Thu aftn...initially SE and then becoming more S early Fri morning into Fri evening. Seas average 2-3ft during this time span but may touch 4ft out near 20NM as the front crosses the waters. Winds become more SW-W with speeds aob 10kt early Sat morning into Sun morning as the front stalls near the Mid Atlantic Coast, and then become more onshore Sun aftn into Mon as the front sags well south of the area. SCA flags not anticipated with the wind speed increase Thu/Fri except with thunderstorms associated with the front. If any headlines are necessary, they can be handled with short-fused MWS or SMW products. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...AJZ/MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...AJB MARINE...BMD

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