Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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275 FXUS61 KAKQ 111100 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 600 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY MORNING...THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS AND OUT TO SEA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPR LVL LO PRES WILL LIFT FM THE ERN GRT LKS ENE INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND DURING TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SFC HI PRES TO BLD IN FM THE UPR MIDWEST. SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY AND COLD TODAY WITH HI TEMPS RANGING FM THE LWR TO MID 30S N...TO THE MID TO UPR 30S S. BUT...W TO NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH...WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES RANGING FM THE UPR TEENS TO THE UPR 20S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... SFC HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE REGION TNGT INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS UPR LVL ENERGY DIGS ESE FM THE UPR MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND THE CAROLINAS. DRY/COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TNGT INTO AT LEAST EARLY FRI MORNG. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK SFC LO PRES ALONG THE SE CST FRI MORNG...WHICH THEN TRACKS ENE OUT TO SEA FRI AFTN/NGT. 00Z/11 ECMWF REMAINS THE MODEL THAT KEEPS DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH THAT SYSTEM S OF THE FA. BUT...WILL CONTINUE TO BLEND THE 00Z/11 NAM/GFS AND CURRENT FCST...WHICH HAS A PERIOD OF LGT SNOW POSSIBLE ACRS FAR SRN AND SE PORTIONS OF VA AND ACRS NE NC (STARTING BETWEEN 15-18Z/12). MODEL SOUNDINGS QUITE DRY BLO 5KFT AND EXPECTING SNOW RATIOS UPWARDS OF 15:1. QPF ATTM AOB .10" ON AVERAGE. SOME SCT -SN WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...AS THE TROF ALOFT SHARPENS INTO THE REGION FM THE WNW. POPS WILL RANGE FM 40-60% SE...TO 15-25% ELSEWHERE. SNOW ACCUMS AT THIS TIME ARE FCST TO BE AN INCH OR LESS...WITH THE ONE INCH AMT CLOSER TO THE ALBEMARLE SND. DUE TO CLOUDS AND A COLD START...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LWR TO MID 30S. VRBL CLUODS/POSSIBLE ISLTD -SNSH FRI EVENG...THEN STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FA LATE FRI NGT/SAT MORNG...USHERING IN ADDITIONAL ARCTIC AIR. POTENTIAL FOR BAY/OCEAN INDUCED SNSH...OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SAT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS (TO 25-30 MPH). HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 20S NW TO 30-35F ELSEWHERE (WIND CHILLS AVERAGING IN THE TEENS TO LWR 20S). && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... STRONG CAA WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. 850MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO AROUND -20 TO - 22C ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIRMASS SO FAR THIS WINTER...AND IT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015- 16 WINTER LOCALLY BASED ON THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE MID- FEBRUARY AND THE 8-14 DAY CPC OUTLOOK INDICATES ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER PORTION OF THE MONTH. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH MID TEENS SE. A NW WIND (STRONGEST E) WILL DROP WIND CHILLS BELOW 0F FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY. THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 20S NE...TO MID/UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...ALTHOUGH BAY STREAMERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS. HOWEVER...A TROUGH DOES DIG ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE COLD AIR WILL SHALLOW AND RETREAT DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT WILL LIKELY BE STUBBORN TO RETREAT TOO FAST. THE AMOUNT OF WINTRY PCPN WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK...WITH THE 10/12Z GFS/CMC SHOWING A COLDER MORE SRN AND OFFSHORE TRACK...WITH TH3 10/12Z ECMWF DEPICTING AN INLAND AND WARMER TRACK. DRYING OCCURS MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE CLIPPING THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM THE W RESULTING IN MAINLY SKC. SCT "BAY STREAMER" SC ARE PSBL. TIGHT PRS GRDNT FROM THE HIGH RESULTS IN BREEZY CNDTNS WITH W WNDS BTWN 15-25 KTS THRU 22Z. WNDS QUICKLY DMNSH BY SUNSET. OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ORF/ECG AREA LATE FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH GUSTY NW WINDS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW MONDAY AS SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS BRING A WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. && .MARINE... STRNG SCA`S REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA DUE TO MODEST CAA FROM A TIGHT PRS GRDNT BTWN DEPARTING S/W AND BLDG SFC HIGH TO THE W. CAPPED WIND GUSTS AT 30 KTS. ADDED LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY OVER THE CHES BAY AND COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING GIVEN TMPS AOB 30 DEGREES COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS 4-5 FT GIVEN THE OFFSHORE FLOW...HIGHEST OUT NR 20 NM. WNDS / WAVES / SEAS DMNSH THIS EVE SO HAVE HEADLINES ENDG BTWN 23-06Z. HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE FRI AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BRING SOME REDUCED VSBY IN SN FOR THE SRN COASTAL ZONES. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE COAST SATURDAY...WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG CAA IS EXPECTED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY (GUSTS BTWN 35-40 KTS)...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BAY AND OCEAN. ADDED FREEZING SPRAY SAT NIGHT TO THE CHES BAY AND CSTL WTRS AS TMPS FCSTD TO PLUMMENT THRU THE 20S AND INTO THE TEENS. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. && .HYDROLOGY... FLOOD WARNING FOR THE NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE LEVEL FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LAST NITE. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... THE WNW FLOW WILL ALLOW ANOMALIES TO FURTHER FALL. STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE BLOW-OUT TIDES THIS WEEKEND. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633- 635>638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ634-650-652- 654-656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630>632. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB/TMG LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...MPR MARINE...MPR HYDROLOGY...MPR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MPR

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