Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 210636 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 236 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... SFC HI PRES EXITING E OF NEW ENG THIS EVE...WHILE SFC LO PRES SLOLY DEVELOPING SE OF CHS. RA FM ECNTRL NC CONTS TO HAVE DIFFICULTY MOVING INTO CSTL NE NC SO FAR THIS EVE. 00Z/21 RUC BRINGS AT LEAST SCT SHRAS NWD ACRS CSTL NE NC...MNLY E OF THE CHOWAN RIVER...AND INTO EXTREME SE VA AFT 04-06Z/21. HAVE INCRSD POPS A LITTLE OVR THOSE AREAS FOR THE REST OF THE NGT...WHILE LWRG POPS TO THE N OVR THE ERN SHORES OF VA/MD. WIDESPREAD CLDNS WILL COVER MOST OF ERN INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE FA OVRNGT...THOUGH LOWEST CIGS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF HAMPTON RDS ON S OVR (CSTL) NE NC. ONLY MADE VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS FOR THE OVRNGT HRS BASED ON TRENDS AND LATEST NEAR TERM GUID. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHT ABOVE THIS MORNINGS TEMPS AWAY FROM THE BAY/OCEAN...WITH MANY AREAS W OF I95 CORRIDOR AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW 60F. CLOSER TO THE BAY/OCEAN...CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT...AND EXPECT IT AGAIN TONIGHT IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... LATEST RUC SLOWER W/ EXIT OF CLDS/PCPN INVOF (SE VA/NE NC) CST SUN MORNING...SO HAVE SLOWED DOWN TAPERING OF POPS W-E. OTRW...THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL WILL BE ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY AREAS SEEING THE UPPER 80S...AND ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO MAKE INTO THE LOWER 80S...AS CONDS ARE P/MSNY W...AND CLEARING (MIDDAY/AFTN) E. A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY EVENING. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED. HAVE INCREASED POPS SUNDAY EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT AREA TO 30%...MAINLY IN DEFERENCE TO NAM12 PRECIP DEPICTION. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...BUT ANY PRECIP BEYOND 04Z EXPECTED TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES. THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50. A SUNNY PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR MOST OF THE AREA. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE IS PRESENTLY (AS OF 06Z) TRACKING NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK THROUGH THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. RA OVER ERN NC IS STRUGGLING TO MOVE N OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE N. ECG COULD EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL -RA THROUGH 12Z...BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON VSBY. STRATUS AT SBY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z...AND IFR AT ORF SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. ELSEWHERE...STRATUS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT RIC/PHF...SO TEMPO IFR HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT BOTH TERMINALS BEGINNING 08-09Z AND ENDING 12Z. THE LOW SHOULD QUICKLY PULLS OFF TO THE NE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH THE WIND SHIFTING FROM NE TO NW ALONG WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NW. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER TODAY AND CROSSES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO SW LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA/TSRA MAINLY ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM RIC TO SBY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
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&& .MARINE... 8 PM UPDATE...SEAS AND WAVES AT CAPE CHARLES BUOY AND FIRST LANDING RESPECTIVELY ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH SIGN OF SUBSIDING. MODELS ARE INSISTENT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS SOON AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WAVES DROPPING BELOW SCA IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. THE SCA EXPIRATION OF 10 PM SEEMED TOO SOON FOR THAT AND ADJUSTED THAT TO 1 AM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SFC HI PRES STRETCHES DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC CST TNGT AS LO PRES PASSES OFFSHORE. AS FAR AS HEADLINES...SCA OVR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WILL CONTINUE THRU 10 PM DUE TO 4 FT WAVES. HIGH SEAS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVR THE CSTL WTRS DUE TO PROLONGED ERLY/NERLY FETCH. WILL CONTINUE HEADLINES THERE INTO TOMORO...ENDING THEM FM N TO S THRU THE DAY AS FLOW BCMS NLY. A COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS LATE SUN/ERLY MON...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STAY SUB-SCA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A WEAK GRADIENT AND CAA. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF THE AREA MON NGT MAY BRING WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND 15 KT FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES AND SEAS AND SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... MONITORING TIDES INVOF MIDDLE BAY (SPECIFICALLY LEWISETTA VA...CAMBRIDGE AND BISHOPS HEAD MD)...WHERE FCST LEVELS FOR TIDES OVNNGT TO FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ATTM. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098. MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-100. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634- 654-656. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650- 652. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM/WRS NEAR TERM...ALB/WRS SHORT TERM...WRS LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...MAS/LSA TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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