Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 162010 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 410 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains centered north of the region tonight into Sunday. Hurricane Jose will lift northward off the Carolina and Mid Atlantic coasts Monday and Tuesday, and then depart to the northeast off the Southern New England coast Wednesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
1022mb high pressure is centered from the Ern Great Lakes across the Northeast Conus this aftn, with Hurricane Jose churning NW well off the Southeast coast. Sct-bkn cu have developed this aftn and there is a minimal chc of showers through the late aftn hours, mainly inland W of the Bay, and along the sea breeze over the Ern Shore. Temperatures this aftn are mainly in the low/mid 80s with upper 70s at the immediate coast. High pressure will continue to prevail tonight as hurricane Jose turns nwd off the Southeast coast. Fog is expected to develop later this evening due to the combination of calm to very light wind, low-level moisture, and clearing this evening. The best chc for fog is from the Piedmont to the Ern Shore. Farther SE, a coastal boundary will push toward the coast later tonight, with increasing clouds and a slight chc of a shower for coastal SE VA/NE NC. Low temperatures will be in the mid/upper 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Hurricane Jose is expected to turn nwd well off the Southeast coast Sunday. The presence of a coastal boundary will result in a 20-30% chc of showers for coastal SE VA/NE NE, well to the NW of Jose. Otherwise, partly sunny to mostly cloudy with highs in the low 80s (mid/upper 70s at the immediate coast). Jose is expected to lift nwd off the Carolina Coast Sunday night into Monday roughly 200mi off of Cape Hatteras later Monday. 20-30% PoPs will continue along the coast Sunday night into Monday under a partly to mostly cloudy sky. A NNE wind will increase Monday afternoon into Monday night with the current forecast showing speeds of 20-25 mph at the immediate coast with gusts up to 35 mph possible. Lows Sunday night range from the mid to upper 60s, followed by highs Monday in the upper 70s to around 80F. The deepest moisture nears the coast later Monday into Monday night, with only 20-40% PoPs near and along the coast. Mostly cloudy Monday night with lows in the 60s. Jose is progged to be ~250mi E of the VA capes by midday Tuesday and moving nwd. The low-level flow will gradually become NNW through the day with drier mid-level air overspreading the area. A 20-30% chc of showers will linger near the coast with decreasing clouds. High temperatures range from the upper 70s/around 80F over the Ern Shore, to the low to potentially mid 80s farther inland.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Long term period will feature temperatures averaging close to normal. Conditions Mon night-Tue will depend on eventual track of tropical cyclone Jose off the mid-Atlantic coast. Reluctant to raise PoPs too high away from the coast given current model consensus and TPC track of Jose. Highest PoPs (30-50%) will be confined to ern 1/3rd of FA...15-20% PoPs to about the I 95 corridor. After that...dry wx expected Wed- Thu...as high pressure builds down over the region and just offshore. By the end of next weekend...continual onshore flow may result in increased clouds and PoPs. Highs will mainly range fm the u70s- m80s...w/ lows ranging through the 60s. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure is centered from the Ern Great Lakes across the Northeast Conus this aftn, with Hurricane Jose churning NW well off the Southeast coast. Sct-bkn cu have developed this aftn with bases ~4-5kft. A few very isolated showers are possible through 22z, but the chc of a direct impact to a terminal is very low. The wind is light and out of the NE at 5-8kt. High pressure will remain centered N of the region tonight as Jose turns nwd. Aftn cu should dissipate quickly this evening resulting in a mostly clear sky. This combined with calm to light flow and low-level moisture should result in some fog overnight. The best chc of IFR vsby will be at SBY/RIC/PHF, with a lesser chc at ECG/ORF where a ~5kt NE wind is expected to persist. Additionally, some MVFR cigs could push into ORF/ECG early Tuesday morning. Jose will lift nwd well off the Mid- Atlantic coast Monday/Tuesday with a 20-40% chc of showers closer to the coast. A NE wind increases to 10-15kt along the coast Monday, and increases further to 15-25kt Monday night into Tuesday. Jose departs well to the NE off the srn New England coast Wednesday/Thursday as weak high pressure builds in from the W. && .MARINE... Latest sfc analysis shows weak high pressure over the area with Hurricane Jose well off the SE coast. Sub-sca conditions this morning with light NE flow (under 10 kt). Increasing swell ahead of Jose will allow seas to rise then this aftn, with the SCA for hazardous seas still in effect over all coastal wtrs. Although winds may only be up to 15 kt by Sun, continued swell will increase seas up to 5-7 ft during the day. 4 ft waves in the mouth of the Bay expected by late Sun/Sun night. As Jose lifts off the Carolina and Mid Atlc coasts Mon/Tue, seas will buildup up to 10-15 ft, potentially higher out 20 nm. Please follow the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center for details, as exact winds/waves/seas will be dependent on how close Jose makes it to the Mid Atlc coast. A track closer to the coast would bring higher winds than currently projected while the consensus track from NHC remains far enough offshore that winds would generally peak in the 25-35 kt range. Will continue moderate risk for rip currents for all beaches adjacent to coastal waters today due to 11-13 sec periods and ~3-4 ft nearshore waves. The risk is expected to become high by Sun and remain high through the middle of next week as seas and swell associated with Jose increase. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A lot of uncertainty with the track of Jose, but expect tidal departures to rise over the weekend into next week with long period swell gradually leading to water piling up in the Bay and tidal rivers. The potential exists for minor to locally significant tidal flooding by Mon/Tue. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MPR NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/MPR LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...MAS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.