Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 202320 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 620 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure moves off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight and Tuesday. Weak low pressure moves northeast along the coast Tuesday night ahead of a cold front that pushes offshore Wednesday morning. High pressure builds back into the area for the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Hi prs moves off the NC coast this evening. Good radiational cooling expected despite a light SSW wind. SKC with low in the upr 20s to mid 30s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure pushes farther offshore Tuesday with a trof developing along the sern coast. Moisture increases along this feature but support for any rainfall stays south of the local area through 00Z Wed. Tues starts off sunny with clouds increasing S-N throughout the day. Milder with highs 60-65. A quick moving nrn stream wave lifts into the northeast Wed with the trailing cold front crossing the local area by 12Z Wed. Meanwhile, a weak sfc low progged to lift N-NE along the Mid- Atlantic coast Wed. Latest models are somewhat faster with the fropa which pushes the moisture off the coast btwn 12Z- 15Z. Where the models differ is just how far west any measurable pcpn gets. GFS is closer to the coast with the NAM/SREF favoring some light pcpn as far west as the Piedmont. Best lift progged east of I95 between 06Z-12Z Wed. Thus, expect a period of showers mainly along and east of I-95 after midnight...quickly shifting toward the coast around 12Z then offshore by 15Z Wed. Kept likely pops east of I95 with chc pops to the west for now. Lows Tues night in the 40s to lwr 50s SE. Little QPF west of I95, .10 to .25 east. Given a quicker fropa, tsctns show drying west to east Wed aftrn as high pressure builds in from the west. Lagging CAA and sun should allow temps to rise into the mid 50s - lwr 60s. Mstly clr / pt cldy Wed night. Lows upr 20s - mid 30s except upr 30s sern coastal areas. Cool / dry Thurs. Highs 45-50. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure shifts offshore Fri. This keeps any moisture coming off of Fla south of the local area. Lows Thurs nite in the upr 20s- upr 30s. Highs Fri in the low-mid 50s. Lows Fri nite in the 30s. The next front pushes across the region Sat. It will be moisture starved as any support for pcpn stays north. Highs Sat in the mid 50s-lwr 60s. Dry / colder early next week as Canadian high prs returns. Highs Sun upr 40s-lwr 50s. Lows in the mid 20s-mid 30s. Highs Mon in the low-mid 40s. && .AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the forecast period as high pressure moves off the Mid Atlantic coast. SSW winds blo 15 kt. A weak trough of low pressure develops along the Carolina coast Wed with sct shwrs possible mainly east of I95 Tues night into early Wed. A brief period of sub-VFR conditions are possible over the terminals during this timeframe. && .MARINE... No headlines or SCA conditions expected tonight thru Tue night. Late this aftn, sfc high pressure was centered over the Carolinas. The high will slide off the coast and out to sea tonight and Tue. Expect winds to become SW or S this evening thru Tue, with speeds mainly 5 to 15 kt (15-20 kt over nrn two coastal waters on Tue). Meanwhile, a canadian low pressure system will drag a cold front into the OH Valley on Tue, approaching the waters late Tue night. Also, low pressure will develop off the SE coast Tue night, then lifts NE just off the Mid Atlc coast Wed morning into Wed aftn. Next chance for SCA conditions should be midday Wed into Thu morning, as cool high pressure builds into the region fm the WNW. High pressure will generally be over the area, then slide offshore Thu aftn thru Fri. && .EQUIPMENT... Technicans are currently working on the Richmond ASOS (KRIC). KDOX remains down. Parts are on order and expected to arrive Wed. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...ALB/MPR MARINE...TMG EQUIPMENT...

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