Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 150640 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 140 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A weak trough of low pressure will push across the area tonight bringing a chance for rain into Thursday morning. Much warmer conditions can be expected Thursday and Friday ahead of a cold front. The front drops through the area late Friday, bringing colder weather for Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Current forecast on track with some changes made to the temp grids based on current readings. The pt cldy skies this eve has allowed readings to drop to or just below forecasted mins in some areas, so lowered mins a bit with the logic that readings will hold steady or even rise a bit late as the pcpn moves in. Highs res data continues to show pcpn with the next s/w to cross the area btwn 06Z-12Z with likely pops over the nrn third of fa with chc pops elsewhere. Guid showing some patchy fog is possible as the rain comes through so added that to the grids. PVS DSCN: Partly to mostly cloudy Thu, but much warmer with a deeper SW flow developing. Highs Thu in the 60s across the eastern shore and NC outer Banks to 70-75 F most other places. Not much forcing for precip, but could see a few isolated aftn showers over the NW. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Thu night will be unseasonably warm, mainly from 55 to 60 F, with highs on Fri in the 60s far N and across the eastern shore to 70-75 F elsewhere. A cold front will be pressing SE into the region Fri afternoon...accompanied by SHRAs (PoPs increasing to 50-70% by aftn). Otherwise partly- mostly cloudy Fri. Turning much colder Fri night and Sat as the front initially shifts winds to the N Fri night with the front stalling just to our south. Looks like a decent slug of overrunning moisture for Sat, with potential for some wintry precipitation across much of the area (mainly all rain SE). Sfc high to the N will slide off to the NE later in the day allowing for rising critical thicknesses from SE to NW. Enough low level cold air in place through early-mid aftn with a warm nose aloft to support snow transitioning to sleet and then mainly rain. A light snow/sleet accumulation possible mainly along and N of a FVX to RIC to WAL line. Highs in the mid 40s SE to the upper 30s NW. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Potentially messy weather to start the extended period on Saturday night with the potential for some wintry mix, especially across northern portions of the region. Any precipitation changes over to rain early Sunday morning and comes to an end. Milder weather is expected for Sunday as high pressure ridges back into the region. Expect highs in the mid to upper 50s Sunday afternoon with sunshine. Temperatures fall back into the mid to upper 30s on Sunday night. A warm front moves through the area Monday bringing another chance for rain showers by Monday afternoon. Highs on Monday will range from the lower 60s SE to the lower 50s NW. The region remains in southwest flow through mid-week leading to highs near 70 and lows in the 50s for many spots on both Tuesday and Wednesday. Another cold front looks to approach the region late in the day on Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Generally VFR conditions through the 06Z TAF forecast period. BKN-OVC CIGs 6-12 kft w/ SCT -RA moving through the region through about 12-14Z/15. SW winds increase/become gusty to 20-25 kt today w/ SCT-BKN mainly mid-high level clouds after -RA early this morning. VRB clouds/CIGs tonight into Fri as local area remains in warm sector. The next cold front crosses the FA late Fri with SCT-likely SHRAs Fri aftn/evening. The front stalls over NC Sat morning with moisture returning with RA likely Sat afternoon/evening...possibly mixed with a little -SN at the start at KRIC/KSBY. Turning drier w/ VFR wx Sun.
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&& .MARINE... High pressure slides off the southeast coast later this afternoon. Winds have flipped around to primarily the southwest and are expected to remain around 10 knots through the afternoon. Winds pick up overnight to around 15 knots, with possibly a few gusts approaching 20 knots over the Bay. Seas are expected to remain around 3 to 4 feet and waves 1 to 2 feet. Winds remain out of the southwest around 15 knots on Thursday and increase Thursday evening as the next frontal system approaches from the west. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for at least the Bay late Thursday through Friday. The front crosses the region Friday evening, turning winds to the NW and leading to continued breezy conditions behind the front. Winds diminish on Saturday before the next system potentially impacts the region late Saturday into Sunday. && .CLIMATE... Well above normal temperatures Thu/Fri. Record highs are listed below: * Thu 2/15 Fri 2/16 * RIC: 82 (1989) 78 (1976) * ORF: 80 (1989) 77 (1990) * SBY: 76 (1989) 73 (1976) * ECG: 78 (1989) 80 (1945) && .EQUIPMENT... KAKQ radar will be down until further notice. Further troubleshooting will continue Thursday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...AJB AVIATION...ALB/MPR MARINE...AJB CLIMATE... EQUIPMENT...

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