Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KAKQ 211343
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
943 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016
-- Changed Discussion --Low pressure will track off the North Carolina coast this
afternoon. A trough of low pressure will then linger over the
area Sunday and Monday. This trough will gradually move offshore
Monday night into Tuesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Primary/wk sfc lo pres was located invof SE OH lt this mrng...w/
secondary/cstl lo pres just w of the ern NC outer banks. The
primary lo will transition to the cstl lo through this aftn. That
cstl lo is xpcd to track se of VA bch this aftn...then cont to
the ENE thereafter. Widespread area of ra (ocnlly +ra) will be
moving through ern VA-lwr SE MD through midday. Residual moisture
will rmn in wake of lo pres exiting the cst the rest of the day.
Some breaks in the clds psbl...mnly alg wrn and srn periphery of
fa...rmng cloudy and cool w/ POPs lwrg to <50% by mid-lt this
aftn. Wnds inland avg N...mnly aob 10 mph...while gusty NE to
20-25 mph nr the cst (esp on the delmarva) become N (lt). Hi temps
fm the l-m60s N/central areas to l70s far S and SW.
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.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
The Great Lakes low digs into the Mid-Atlantic tonight
into Sunday, with a shortwave trough dropping through the base of
the parent trough Sunday. Moist and weak low-level northerly flow
will maintain low clouds tonight. PoPs tonight range from 30-40% n
to 20-30% s for occasional light rain or drizzle. Lows range from
the mid to upper 50s. PoPs increase Sunday as the secondary
shortwave tracks across the area ranging from ~60% across the
Piedmont and interior coastal plain to 30-40% along the coast.
Additional QPF should be minimal due to a lack of deep lift
generally averaging aob 0.10". Highs Sunday range from the low/mid
60s nw to the mid/upper 60s se.
The upper system gradually pivots ewd Sunday night and Monday.
Sensible weather conditions remain mostly cloudy to overcast and
unsettled with 30-40% PoPs. Rainfall should become more showery
Monday as the upper cold pool moves overhead. Highs Monday moderate
into the upper 60s to low 70s after morning lows in the low/mid 50s.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A return to conds more typical of late May xpcd in the extended pd
acrs the fa. Upr lvl lo pres will be moving ne and away fm the rgn
Mon ngt through Tue...then is replaced a hi pres sfc-aloft building
invof se conus by lt next wk. Contd slo erosion of cldns and lwrg of
pops Mon ngt-Tue. Fm Wed-Fri...mnly diurnal lo end POPs w/ vrb clds/
partly cloudy conds. Hi temps Tues in the m-u70s...then mnly l-m80s
Wed-Fri (though only 70s at the immediate cst each day). Lo temps
mnly in the m50s Mon ngt...u50s Tue ngt...then l-m60s Wed/Thu
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A couple areas of low pressure will bring rain to the region
today. One low will move ne along the nc cst then out to sea,
while the other low will track fm srn oh into srn pa. vfr/mvfr
conditions very early this morng, will quickly become ifr
conditions later this morng acrs all taf sites, as the heavier
rains move ewrd into the area. A few hours of moderate to heavy
rain can be expected today fm 10z to 17z. Rain will taper off
or end fm sw to ne this aftn into early this eveng, but IFR
conditions will continue into Sun morng. Winds will be fm the ene
today, and may be gusty at times where the pressure gradient will
be tightest...mainly ORF and SBY.
OUTLOOK...Conditions will be slow to improve with an upper level
trof deepening along the Eastern Seaboard thru Sun night which
moves just off the coast Mon. Chances for showers are in the
fcst thru Mon. It is too early to pin down aviation conditions
Sun thru Mon. The MAVMOS suggests IFR and METMOS mainly MVFR. The
truth may be in between. High pressure builds over the area with
mainly dry weather Tue aftn and Wed.
During today...one low pres area will move ne along the nc cst
then out to sea, while the other low will track fm srn oh into srn
pa. Expecting ese winds to increase (to lo end SCA) this
morng, as the cstl lo tracks ne along the nc cst. Then, as that lo
moves ne and out to sea this eveng into Sun morng...winds will
turn to the ne, n, or nw. Expecting northerly winds to continue
ovr the wtrs Sun thru Mon at 10 to 15 kt ovr the Ches Bay,
Currituck Snd, and the Cstl Wtrs, as sfc lo pres sits off the Mid
Atlc cst. Hi pres and more tranquil wx expected Tue aftn thru Wed.
Intensifying sfc lo pres will move alng the nc cst and then out to
sea this morng into Sun morng, leading to an increasing onshore
flow thru this morng. Tidal departures will increase, but the
progressive, fast moving nature of this system (winds turn
offshore this aftn/evening) likely to keep any potential tidal
flooding to a minimum. Highest chance for seeing minor flooding
would be acrs the Atlc side of the eastern shore with this eveng`s
high tide cycle.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633-
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630>632-634-
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ638.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ650-652.