Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 132009 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 409 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING...BUT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN LAY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EAST NORTHEAST AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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AREA OF SCTD SHOWERS (ISLTD THUNDER SE) WILL MOVE THRU CNTRL/ERN CNTIES AND OFF THE CST THIS EVENG...AS A TROF OF LO PRES PUSHES THRU AND OFFSHR. THEN...BECMG MSTLY CLEAR N TO PRTLY/MSTLY CLOUDY S TNGT. LOWS RANGING FM THE MID 50S EXTRM N TO THE MID 60S SE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH ONLY SLGT CHANCES FOR PCPN IN THE FAR SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES HOLD IN THE 70S SUNDAY. DUE TO AN INCREASE OF SUNSHINE FROM EARLIER FORECASTS...HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 80 OVER MOST INLAND SECTIONS ON MONDAY WITH READINGS HOLDING IN THE MID 70S ON THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... WEAK TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS GENERATING A FEW SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE AREA. TIMING WHAT WE CAN SEE ON THE RADAR AND WITH THE HRRR AND RUC ALL SHOW ABOUT A 4 HOUR WINDOW OF SHOWERS. MAINLY FROM 18 TO 20Z WEST TO 20 TO 00Z EAST. CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR DURING THE SHOWERS. AFTER THIS TROF MOVES BY STILL NOT A LOT OF FLOW ALOFT TO GET RID OF ALL THE MOISTURE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS KEEP SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THRU THE NIGHT. SO WILL RAISE CIGS TO VFR TONIGHT. LOOKS LIKE CONTINUED DRYING ON SUNDAY AND KEPT VFR CONDITIONS. OUTLOOK...PCPN AND LOWER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. STILL UNCERTAINTY ABOUT TIMING AND HOW FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE WILL GET IN OUR AREA. && .MARINE...
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WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A TROF THIS EVENING. MODELS STILL DEPICTING A DECENT CAA SURGE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING SO WILL KEEP CRNT SCA HEADLINES. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO BEGING THE SCA HEADLINES WITH THIS ISSUANCE FOR THE CHES BAY SINCE THE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS ARND MIDNIGHT. WILL LET THE STARTING TIME FOR SCA`S ALONE FOR LATE TONIGHT AS THERE ARE GNRLY FOR 5 FOOT SEAS (ALTHOUGH THERE CUD BE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KTS LATE TONIGHT). SURGE QUICKLY DMNSHS BY SUNDAY AFTRN SO WILL LET THE SCA`S EXPIRE AT ADVERTISED TIMES. NE FLOW SETS UP SUN NIGHT TINTO MON MORN AT SPEEDS AOB 15 KTS. WINDS SHIFT INTO THE E-SE MONDAY AFTRN AND EVEN AHEAD OF NEXT BNDRY. NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TUE MORNING WITH YET ANOTHER MANGINAL CAA SURGE EXPECTED BEHIND IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NE (SCA) WINDS AND SEAS AOA 5 FT STARTING MID WEEK AND PSBLY LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR VAZ098>100. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634- 638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ633. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ652- 654-656. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...TMG LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...JAB MARINE...MPR

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