Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 260607 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 207 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS VIRGINIA TUESDAY NIGHT... THEN STALLS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVES EAST ALONG THE FRONT...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATING ~1000 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ESE THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO AND PENNSYLVANIA. FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY. ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT....EARLIER MID/HIGH CLOUDS HAVE GENLY SCATTERED OUT LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDS ACRS THE LOCAL AREA. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AVERAGES 5-10 MPH AND WITH MIXING CONTINUING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVG TONIGHT...WITH LOWS MAINLY FROM 60-65 F FOR MOST...A FEW UPPER 50S ON THE ERN SHORE. WHILE THE WEST FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE WNW OVERNIGHT...STILL DOES NOT LOOK TO TAKE ON ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO BRING SHOWERS/TSTMS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE AKQ CWA...IF IT WERE TO OCCUR...WOULD BE THE MD ERN SHORE BUT STILL KEEPING POPS AT OR BELOW 10%. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... SFC HI PRES RMNS OFF THE SE CST THROUGH TUE...RESULTING IN CONTG LO LVL FLO FM THE SSW (GUSTY AGN DURING MIDDAY/AFTN HRS). NR ZONAL FLO ALOFT TUE-TUE NGT SLOWING PUSH S OF CDFNT FM THE N. WIDESPREAD CLDS AND AN AREA OF SHRAS/PSBL TSTMS WILL BE NR THE FNT AS IT APPROACHES FM THE N. DOWNSLOPING SW FLO XPCD TO KEEP MUCH OF THE RA AWAY FM THE FA UNTIL (LT) TUE AFTN. WILL HAVE VRB CLDS N-PARTLY CLOUDY CNTRL/S TUE...W/ POPS AVGG 25-35% N AND 5-20% S TUE AFTN. WARM TUE W/ HI TEMPS FM THE M70S-L80S ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE L-M80S NR THE BAY/OCN IN ERN/SE VA AND CSTL NE NC...M-U80S INLAND. THE CDFNT PRESSES SLOLY S ACRS THE FA TUE NGT-WED MRNG...XPCD TO STALL OVR NC BY WED AFTN. HIGHER PROB FOR SHRAS-MAYBE TSTMS TUE NGT. COOLING NE WNDS ON WED W/ THE FNT JUST TO THE S OF THE FA. SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS ONE THAT STRONGLY SUPPORTS CONSIDERABLE CLDNS AND AT LEAST SCT RA (ESP INLAND FM THE ERN SHORE). WILL HAVE POPS 30-50% W AND SW (W/ MENTION OF PSBL SCT TSTMS)...20% CNTRL AND SE AND 10% NE ON WED. LO TEMPS TUE NGT FM THE L-M50S ON THE ERN SHORE TO U50S-L60S ELSW. HI TEMPS WED U50S- M60S NE TO 70-80F SW. THE FNT RMNS STALLED JUST S OF THE FA WED NGT...THEN NUDGES BACK TO THE N ON THU. MDLS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF RA LT WED NGT INTO THU AS FNT BEGINS TO PULL BACK N. AT THIS TIME...HAVE PUSHED POPS UP ABT 10-15% THROUGHOUT. TIMING/COVERAGE RMNS UNCERTAIN. WILL INCLUDE CHC TSTMS...PRIMARILY THU AFTN IN AREAS THAT COULD BREAKOUT INTO WARM SECTOR THU AFTN (FAVORING SRN VA/NE NC). LO TEMPS WED NGT FM THE U40S ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE ARND 60F IN SCNTRL VA/INTERIOR NE NC. HI TEMPS THU FM THE U50S-L60S NE TO M-U70S IN FAR SRN VA/INTERIOR NE NC. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE DROPPING SOUTH LATER FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS OVER THE AREA THUR NIGHT WITH THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THEN SLIGHT CHC POPS FRIDAY AS A TRAILING UPPER WAVES PASSES. DRY WX RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY PUSH SOME MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA BY NEXT SUNDAY/MONDAY. HIGHS FRI FROM NEAR 70 EASTERN SHORE TO 75-80 DEG INLAND. HIGHS SAT-MON FROM THE UPPER 60S EASTERN SHORE TO 70-75 DEG INLAND. LOWS TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EWD TODAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE N LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SW WIND WILL AVERAGE 8-12KT EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT. CLOUDS INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CIGS OF 6-8KFT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY THIS EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST CHC FROM RIC-SBY. THE COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY PRODUCING A WIND SHIFT TO NE. THIS FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PRODUCING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. IFR/MVFR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN VA/NE NC. HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE N BY SATURDAY.
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&& .MARINE... S-SW WINDS 10-15 KT BAY/RIVER/SOUND AND 15-20 KT COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. FOR TONIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INCHES CLOSER TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP MORE. THIS WILL CREATE LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS FOR CHES BAY DUE TO WINDS OF 15- 20KT...AND COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT DUE TO GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 5FT. SCA FLAGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTN/EVE. PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SWD OVER THE WATERS AND STALLS OVER/NEARBY THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING. SW WINDS AOB 15KT TUESDAY NIGHT BECOME MORE NE-E/ONSHORE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SINKS FARTHER SOUTH. SEAS 3-4FT/WAVES 1-2FT. PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS AVERAGE 2-4 FT WITH 1-2FT WAVES IN THE BAY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE WEATHER PATTERN FINALLY STARTS TO CHANGE ON LATER FRI/FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH NE/ONSHORE WINDS AOB 15KT WILL PREVAIL. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... SOUTHERLY FLOW UP THE BAY PRODUCING TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 0.5 TO NEAR 1.0 FOOT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL LEVELS. CURRENT FORECAST GENLY APPEARS ON TRACK WITH WATER LEVELS STILL EXPECTED TO FALL SHY OF MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS WITH THE UPCOMING EARLY TUE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630>632-634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ654. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650- 652.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB SHORT TERM...ALB LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...BMD/JDM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ

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