Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 231937 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 237 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE NJ COAST...SLOWLY LIFTING NE. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS WEDGING SW INTO THE MID ATLC STATES (BUT IS RETREATING OFF TO THE NE). SATURATED LOW LEVELS REMAIN BUT VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED TO ABOUT 2SM IN MOST AREAS AS FOG HAS LIFTED AND NOW JUST SEEING MAINLY LOW STRATUS/LOW CIGS OF ABOUT 200-300 FT (FOG NOW MOST PREVALENT OVER THE WATER AND ACRS THE ERN SHORE). OVERCAST/DAMP/CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL STILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTN WITH TEMPS HOLDING BETWEEN 40-45 F OVER MOST AREAS...45-50 F FAR SE (AND WARMEST ON THE ERN SHORE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S). NOT MUCH CHC FOR MEASURABLE RAIN THROUGH 22Z SO WILL ADJUST GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. EXPECT FOG TO BECOME AN ISSUE AGAIN THIS EVENING OR LATER TONIGHT HOWEVER AS HIGHER DEW PTS SURGE NORTHWARD TO THE N OF THE WARM FRONT. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACRS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND WILL ALLOW FOR THE AREA TO BE WARM SECTORED ON WED. DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURS TONIGHT...RAISED POPS TO NEAR 100% ALL AREAS...AS MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING FOG TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE "WARM" OCEAN WATERS. STILL DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH ~990 MB SFC LOW TRACKING NNE FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY WED. DEW PTS SOAR INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER-MID 60S IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ON WED...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC FOR LATE AFT/EVENING TSTMS ON WED (CHRISTMAS EVE). AT THIS POINT THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLEARING POTENTIAL (HIGH SHEAR BUT VERY MINIMAL CAPE) ON WED TO LEAD TO SEVERE WX. SPC ONLY HAS FAR SE ZONES IN A MARGINAL RISK ATTM. TIMING ALSO A BIT SLOWER...ACTUAL FRONT NOW PRONGED TO PUSH THROUGH AROUND 06Z/THU...WHICH WOULD FURTHER LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. HIGHS WED INTO THE M-U60S TO LOWER 70S (CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS/SEE CLIMATE SECTION). CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS WED...SHIFTING OFF THE COAST LATER WED NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST BY CHRISTMAS MORNING. SLOWER PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL MAKE FOR VERY MILD MINS CHRISTMAS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S FAR WEST...TO THE MID 50S SE. SKIES BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY WITH BREEZY WESTERLY FLOW BY MID/LATE MORNING CHRISTMAS DAY. RAISED HIGHS TO 55-60 F MOST AREAS AS CAA IS WEAK AND WILL BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPE WARMING (AND DUE TO A WARM BEGINNING). && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES AND MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT/FRI...SLIDING OFF THE SE COAST FRI NIGHT. A COLD FRONT GETS SHEARED APART AS IT CROSSES THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING AND SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH ITS PASSAGE. THE CAA OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT IS BECOMING WEAKER WITH EACH MODEL RUN SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN IN ITS WAKE...EXCEPT MAYBE IN COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST SUN THROUGH AT LEAST MON. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MID-UPPER 50S FRI/SAT...THEN COOL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 50 SUN/MON. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S (OCCASIONALLY IN THE LOWER 50S IMMEDIATE COAST). && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VARIABLE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH 00Z WED BEFORE ALL SITES BECOME LOCKED IN IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WED MORNING. LIGHT SE FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN THIS...IFR CONDITIONS FEATURING LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VSBY IN AREAS OF -DZ/BR SHOULD PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT AS THERE WILL BE NO MECHANISM TO SCOUR-OUT LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE. A WARM FRONT/COASTAL FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS SE-NW ACROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NNE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS IS POSSIBLE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF RA INCREASES TONIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THU MORNING. DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BY CHRISTMAS DAY ALONG WITH A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND. && .MARINE... ISSUED DENSE FOG ADSY FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH 4 PM DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND SATURATED CONDS (FOG SEEN ON WEBCAMS AS WELL). SCA HEADLINES NOW IN EFFECT OVER ATLC CSTL WATERS N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND ONLY. PREV DISC... LOW PRESSURE PULLS TO THE NE THIS MORNING AND GRADUALLY WASHES OUT THIS AFTERNOON. A NW WIND OF 10-15KT (LOCALLY 15-20KT EARLY) IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW THIS MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NE FOR THE NRN OCEAN ZONES EARLY BEFORE SHIFTING TO NW. SEAS WILL BEGIN AT 5-7FT...WITH 4-5FT WAVES IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. SEAS/WAVES SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MORNING. AT THIS TIME THE SCA N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND RUNS THROUGH 18Z...WITH AN END TIME OF 12Z S OF PARRAMORE ISLAND AND FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE NOW AND FLAGS WILL BE RE-EVALUATED AT 12Z. THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT/VARIABLE BY AFTERNOON...AND THEN BECOME SE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND PULLS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR (AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS) OVERSPREAD COOLER WATER. THE LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND LIFT NNE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. A SSE WIND SHOULD INCREASE TO 15-20KT BAY/SOUND/RIVERS AND 20-25KT OCEAN BY AFTERNOON. SIMILAR SPEEDS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE DIRECTION BECOMING SW AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE COAST. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5-8FT LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH 3-4FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THE CURRENT FLAGS WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BEFORE RAISING ANY FLAGS FOR THE NEXT EVENT. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WIND BECOMING WESTERLY (15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 25KT) BY CHRISTMAS DAY. SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS THE WIND BECOMES OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION CHRISTMAS NIGHT...AND THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGHS FOR CHRISTMAS EVE/WED 12/24: RICHMOND.......71 F (1988) NORFOLK........75 F (1891) SALISBURY......67 F (1990) ELIZ CITY NC...75 F (1990) && .EQUIPMENT... THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO SYSTEM AT WAKEFIELD VA HAS RETURNED TO SERVICE. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650- 652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...AJZ/DAP MARINE...AJZ CLIMATE... EQUIPMENT...

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