Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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086 FXUS61 KAKQ 210622 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 222 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds over the region through tonight then remains in place through the weekend. This will result in dry and hot conditions with heat building through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... Weak high pressure is moving over the Mid-Atlantic states tonight as the upper trough off the New England coast exits and the large ridge over the central US builds eastward. The radar still shows some lingering convection from the heating of the day and the interaction with sea breeze and outflow boundaries. These lingering showers should continue to dissipate over the next couple of hours. Have updated the forecast to show this dissipation. Once the daytime cu is gone, do not see much forcing to keep clouds going and the mos guidance agrees so have reduced sky cover as most areas should see mainly clear sky overnight. For now have kept the temperatures in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Some low stratus is possible early Thursday morning along the lower Bay with some patchy fog inland. Any fog or low clouds will burn of quickly giving way to mostly sunny skies. Anomalous upper ridge over the nation`s mid section continues to build eastward Thursday and Friday. Thursday`s onshore flow suppresses the heat for one more day. Similar thicknesses and low level temps to today will result in highs back in the upper 80s to around 90. Dry with a mostly sunny sky. Lows Thursday night in the upper 60s to low 70s under a mostly clear sky. The upper ridge expands eastward Friday, reaching the Piedmont. Highs forecast in the mid 90`s with heat indices around 100. Pressure falls along the lee side of the mountains will sharpen a thermal trough over the Piedmont, but a lack of moisture and appreciable forcing results in silent POPs. However, will see more afternoon cumulus. Have added a slight chance of showers and storms in the far west on Saturday as a few storms could develop over the higher terrain and drift east. Highs in the mid 90s with heat indices of 100-104. The heat will build in more on Sunday as highs reach the upper 90s with heat indices between 105 to 109. There could be an afternoon tstm with the thermal trough remaining overhead. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A thermal trough is expected to remain in place Mon-Wed for continued very warm to hot conditions. 595dm upper ridge also remains situated off the SE coast. A slight buckle in the ridge across the Northeast/Mid- Atlantic due to a weak upper trough passage will knock a few degrees off max temps but still remain above normal. Highs in the mid/upr 90s Monday and low to mid 90s Tue/Wed. Thunderstorm chances will mainly be tied to the aftn/eve hours. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will settle over the Mid Atlantic States today and slide off the coast from late this afternoon/evening and remain there Fri into the weekend. As of 06Z...Light winds prevail, patchy fog is developing but has not really affected TAF sites yet. Will forecast some patchy fog for KSBY/KPHF/KECG, but think only KSBY has a decent chance for vsbys dropping to IFR (<3SM), during the 08-12Z timeframe. OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR conditions and dry weather can be expected through Saturday. An isolated shower/tstm just inland from the coast can`t be ruled out this afternoon. Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are possible Sunday and Monday with a better chance on Tuesday. && .MARINE... Headlines are not anticipated over the next several days, though conditions may come close to reaching SCA thresholds Fri night. High pressure over the area today will slide offshore and become centered off the mid- Atlantic/SE coast Thu- Fri as a weak front approaches from the NW Fri night into Sat. This front looks to remain N of the CWA, with a pre-frontal trough in place over the region on Sat. Winds today will be light from the E-NE (<10kt) and transition to the S to avg around 10 KT tonight into Fri morning. Bay waves avg 1-2 ft with coastal seas 2-3 ft. The pressure gradient will increase a bit by late Fri, especially by fri night so S/SW winds will ramp up and avg around 15 KT during this period. A few gusts may reach SCA thresholds across the Bay (20 KT) and northern coastal waters (25 KT) Fri night as warm water temperatures will be conducive to mixing the low level nocturnal Jet. Still would be marginal at best, with waves over the Bay building to 2-3 ft, and coastal seas to around 4 ft N and 3 ft S. The sfc trough/boundary drops into the area on Sat with lighter W/SW flow turning back to the S Sat night. The front then washes out/dissipates on Sun. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JAO NEAR TERM...ESS SHORT TERM...SAM/JAO LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...LKB/LSA MARINE...LKB

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