Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 271818 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 218 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SFC HI PRES CENTERED BTWN LAKES HURON AND ERIE ATTM...BUILDS SLOLY E INTO NE CONUS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE. OTHER THAN PATCHY CI...ESP SRN PORTION...AND BKN SC INVOF CSTL SE VA/NE NC...MNLY SUNNY WX XPCD TO CONT. VERY NICE WAY TO START LAST WKND OF SEP (FIRST OF FALL). DEWPTS RATHER LO...FM THE M50S TO L60S...W/ CONTD NE WNDS...AOB 10 MPH INLAND...10-15 MPH AT THE CST. HI TEMPS FM THE M/U70S NR THE CST TO ARND 80F (WELL) INLAND. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LOWS AGAIN DROPPING INTO THE 50S MOST AREAS ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN. CONTINUED NICE WX ON SUN...SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED ACROSS SERN ZONES ON SUNDAY AS A COASTAL FRONT (INVERTED TROUGH) BEGINS TO ORGANIZE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST BUT SKIES STILL AVG OUT PARTLY SUNNY HERE (AND MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE). HIGHS AVG IN THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER 80S WELL INLAND. A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE MIDWEST BECOMES ABSORBED IN THE UPPER FLOW LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT AS ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY LIFTS NE FROM THE SRN PLAINS. THE RESULTANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY LATE MONDAY...BRINGING WITH IT AN INCREASE IN POPS FOR MONDAY...ALTHOUGH BULK OF LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE APPEARS TO STAY W OF THE CWA THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. FURTHER ENHANCEMENT OF THE COASTAL TROUGH OVER THE CAROLINAS IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE AMPLIFYING FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT BULK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS LOOKS TO STAY JUST OFF THE COAST. NAM IS THE WETTEST MODEL FOR MON WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR POPS EXCEPT IN THE PIEDMONT WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES...MAINLY TO LOWER POPS ACRS THE EAST TO ONLY 20-30% CHC WHILE MAINTAINING 30-40% POPS IN THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. THIS SOMEWHAT SLOWER ONSET OF PRECIP AND THICKER CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED MAV/MET GUIDANCE TO FORECAST HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S- LOWER 80S ON MON. THIS SEEMS TOO WARM GIVEN WEAKER LATE SEP SUN ANGLE AND A FAIRLY THICK MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK BY AFTN. DID NUDGE HIGH TEMP FORECAST UP A FEW DEGREES...INTO THE UPPER 70S MOST AREAS E OF I-95...WITH LOWER-MID 70S ACRS THE WEST. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... VERY FAMILIAR LOOK TO BEGINNING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD, WITH ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREMENTAL LOWERING/THICKENING OF CLOUDS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT, WITH POPS RAMPING UP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ENOUGH AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN VA/NE NC MON NIGHT/TUE...AND TO HIGH CHC ELSEWHERE. MAINTAINING CHC POPS TUE NGT INTO EARLY WED AS MODELS KEEP UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE WITH THE GFS SHOWING ANOTHER DEVELOPING COASTAL/INVERTED TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVING NE ALONG IT (LATEST ECMWF HAS AMPLIFIED THE UPPER LEVELS INTO A CUTOFF LOW WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE VA COAST DURING THE DAY WED). MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO WED FOR NOW...BUT POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED WHEN MORE PATTERN AGREEMENT CAN BE ASCERTAINED. FOR TEMPS, HV KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES GENLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL CONSIDERING LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT E-NE FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTN WILL DRIFT ESE AND OFF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST THRU SUN. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THRU THIS TIME PERIOD WITH DRY WX. PERSISTENCE FORECAST LEADS TO ISOLATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SUN MORNING DUE TO FOG...ESPLY AT SBY/PHF...WHILE SCT TO BKN MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ORF/ECG. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 13Z SUN. OUTLOOK...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR AVIATION RESTRICTIONS WILL COME MON AFTN INTO TUE...AS MOISTURE FROM THE GULF RACES NWRD IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING BOUNDARY FROM THE W.
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&& .MARINE... HI PRES CNTRD OVR THE GRT LKS EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL MOVE ESE AND OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST TODAY THRU SUN. EXPECT GENERALLY NE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS THRU THE PERIOD. SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THRU THIS EVENG OR THRU LATE TNGT FOR THE CSTL WTRS FOR SEAS OF 5 FT. LO PRES OR LO PRES TROF WILL THEN AFFECT THE WTRS MON AFTN INTO WED MORNG. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... PERSISTENT NE FLOW CONTINUING TO RESULT IN TIDAL DEPARTURES .5 FOOT TO 1 FOOT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654- 656. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB LONG TERM...LKB/MAM AVIATION...TMG/DAP MARINE...TMG TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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