Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KAKQ 221106
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
706 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016
High pressure builds in from the northwest today ushering in a drier
and more seasonable airmass to the Mid-Atlantic region. High
pressure remains over the area through the middle of the week,
before sliding offshore later in the week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --The latest wv imagery shows a trough digging through the
Ern Great Lakes early this morning, with a ridge now well offshore.
At the surface, a cold front is off the Mid-Atlantic coast, with
high pressure centered over the Midwest. Temperatures as of 700am
range from around 60/low 60s over the Piedmont, to the mid/upper
60s from the interior coastal plain to the Ern Shore with low 70s
lingering over se VA/ne NC. Dewpoints have dropped to 60-65 across
the area. Sky cover is mostly clear with a few lingering bands of
mid and high clouds.
High pressure will continue to build in from the northwest today.
850mb temperatures around ~14C this afternoon will support more
seasonable highs in the mid 80s with a drier well mixed airmass.
Afternoon dewpoints are expected to drop into the upper 50s to low
60s resulting in a considerably more comfortable humidity level.
Mostly sunny with few-sct aftn cu.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface high pressure settles over the area tonight
through Wednesday providing continued dry and pleasant weather.
Overall expect Mostly clear/sunny conditions with some aftn cu.
The wind (averaging aob 10 mph) will become ne Tuesday, which will
result in highs ranging from the upper 70s/around 80 at the
immediate coast, to the low/mid 80s inland. This will be after
morning lows in the upper 50s/low 60s, with mid 60s for sern coastal
locations. The wind remains e/ne into Wednesday, with the airmass
warming slightly. Highs range from around 80/low 80s at the coast,
to the mid 80s inland. This will be after morning lows in the upper
50s/low 60s. Humidity levels will remain comfortable with dewpoints
in the upper 50s/low 60s Tuesday and Wednesday aftns.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface high pressure pushes farther offshore Wednesday night and
Thursday as upper level ridging builds over the Southeast.
Temperatures and dewpoints will moderate Thursday as the ridge
builds and surface winds become southerly. Dry conditions prevail,
with highs warming into the mid to upper 80`s. Medium range guidance
continues the trend of a weaker northern stream trough now located
over southeast Canada Friday. An associated weak cold front
approaches the region Friday and crosses the area Friday night. A
lack of appreciable forcing thanks to the building ridge and the
shortwave energy passing well north of the forecast area will result
in a dry forecast. Highs Friday warming back into the upper 80`s to
low 90`s. The weak front stalls along the coast through the weekend,
but again with the upper level high over the region and limited
moisture, will carry silent POP`s. Highs this weekend in the upper
80`s to low 90`s. Average highs this time of year are generally in
the mid 80`s.
.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front is pushing offshore early this morning, with high
pressure and drier air building in from the nw. High pressure will
continue to build into the area today with an 8-12kt nnw wind and
few-sct aftn cu. High pressure builds over the region tonight and
remains over the area through mid-week, before sliding offshore
later in the week. Dry and vfr conditions are expected throughout
Opted to drop headlines for the upper James early this morning as
winds have become more north than northeast. Will continue with
headlines for the remaining Rivers as gusts nearest the Bay remain
around 20 knots. Otherwise, no changes made.
Cold front has pushed offshore early this morning, with a
northwest surge ongoing over the waters. Speeds are generally 15
to 20 knots with gusts of 25 knots. Some of the higher elevated
sensors gusting to near 30 knots, and with favorable mixing due to
warm waters, expect some higher gusts to also be observed near the
water surface. Waves generally 1-2 feet, but expect an increase to
2-4 feet by daybreak. The national wave model kicks seas from 2-3
feet up to 4-5 feet by daybreak as well. Cold air advection begins
to wane mid morning as high pressure nudges in from the west.
Winds become northerly 10-15 knots late morning. Waves subside to
2-3 feet late morning with seas subsiding to 3-4 feet by early
afternoon. Seas 2- 3 feet late afternoon. No changes made to end
times of headlines.
High pressure builds over PA today through tonight with flow
becoming north to northeast. The gradient strengthens slightly
tonight with northeast winds of 15 to 20 knots over the coastal
waters. Seas respond, building back to 3-4 feet. Northeast winds
diminish Tuesday as the high pushes off the Northeast coast. A
period of sub-SCA onshore flow (varying from northeast to southeast)
is expected Tuesday through Thursday. Waves generally 1-2feet and
seas 2-3 feet. The next cold front approaches the region Friday,
reaching the waters late Friday night into Saturday morning. The
front then stalls near the coast for the weekend as high pressure
builds into southeast Canada and the Northeast. This would indicate
a period of onshore flow with seas possibly reaching SCA thresholds
late in the weekend.
Strong north to northwest winds have pushed tidal departures
upwards of 1 foot in the lower Chesapeake Bay early this morning.
Winds will subside mid morning, resulting in dropping departures
as the tide begins to come back in. Tidal areas in the lower
Chesapeake Bay may reach within one half foot of minor flooding
during high tide late morning through early afternoon, but no
flooding is anticipated. A period of onshore flow is expected
through the end of the work week, but flow is expected to remain
light so flooding impacts are not anticipated.
Due to an azimuth motor failure, the KAKQ 88D will be out of
service until sometime on Monday.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ635-
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for