Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 122028 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 328 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will push offshore tonight. Expect markedly colder air across the region then through Wednesday, with temperatures moderating for late week into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Latest sfc analysis shows ~996 mb low pressure centered over NY state with an attendant cold front stretching south through the middle of the fa. The front pushes offshore with WNW winds gusting up to 20-30 mph post frontal this evening. Despite decent forcing, low-level moisture is lacking and thus have limited any chance for pcpn (mainly plain rain) to eastern areas where 20-30% PoPs are carried. Any amounts will be very light. Dry thereafter tonight and cold with lows in the upr teens to low 20s most areas. This combined with continued gusty winds will lead to wind chill values in the upr single digits to teens...lowest over northern areas. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Dry on Wed as weak sfc high pres slides south of the area. Expect wind chill values in the 20s even during the middle of the day with winds gusting up to 20-30 mph and high temps only in the mid 30s most spots...15-20 degrees below normal. Next chance of pcpn arrives Wed night with an approaching clipper system. Have maintained a 20% of rain/snow showers over the Lwr Eastern Shore, with most pcpn over the fa being just sprinkles/flurries. Dry then for Thu with temps moderating...highs mainly in the mid/upr 40s under a partly cloudy sky. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Next clipper system approaches from the WNW Thu night. Models coming into better alignment with slowing this feature down slightly, then crosses the local area Fri aftn/night as weak sfc lo pres passes just S and E. 00Z/12 GFS and ECMWF both suggest there is a potential for wintry pcpn on Fri (esp N and NW sections)...maintaining cold air across the region. During the weekend...upper level flow relaxes allowing for moderation into early next week. Lows Thu night from the m20s NW to the m30s at the coast in SE VA-NE NC. Highs Fri from the m30s NW to around 50F in far SE VA-NE NC. Lows Fri night from the m-u20s inland to 30-35F at the immediate coast. Highs Sat in the l-m40s. Lows Sat night in the l-m30s. Highs Sun in the l-m50s. Lows Sun night in the 30s to l40s. Highs Mon in the l-m50s. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR through the 18z TAF period. A cold front crosses the area this aftn with west winds gusting in its wake tonight and Wed...up to 25-30 kt. Cigs will lower to 3.5-5k ft as the front moves through. Cannot rule out areas of MVFR cigs later this aftn but the likelihood is not high enough to include mention in the TAFs attm. Outlook: Expect VFR conditions to then prevail for much of the week ahead. && .MARINE... Gale warnings remain in place through Wed afternoon due to the forecasted period of elevated winds behind todays arctic cold front. Expect gusts btwn 35-40 kts. Kept the local rivers (except the lwr James) in strong SCA with gusts capped at 30 kts. Seas 5-7 ft, with 4-5 ft waves. Expect the gales to be replaced with SCA`s Wed night through Thurs morning as the gradient relaxes a bit ahead of the next weak wave approaching from the west. Latest data showing sub-SCA conditions from Thurs afternoon through Sat. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Potential exists for some low water issues during Thurs tide cycles given the gusty NW winds. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ635>637. Gale Warning until 4 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ630>634-638-650- 652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...AJB AVIATION...MAS MARINE...MPR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MPR

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