Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 130758 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 358 AM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure will move offshore of New England today through Saturday as a trough of low pressure slowly weakens along the Carolina coast. A cold front passes through the region on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A 1032mb sfc high pressure slides off the New England coast today with ENE flow maintaining clouds along with a chance for spotty light rain or drizzle. A weak low level trough invof SE VA-NE NC may enhance -RA later this afternoon into tonight. Therefore, have increased PoPs into the 40-50% range along the coast today, and maintained 30% PoPs tonight. High temps today range from the u60s-around 70F N/NW...to 72-76F elsewhere (highest in SE VA into NE NC). Lows tonight from the upr 50s-around 60F NW to the mid/upr 60s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Not confident in amount of erosion to the CAD wedge (and cloudy/damp wx) Saturday due to very limited mixing...and weak sfc trough (lingering over E and SE portions of local area). Have stayed pessimistic with cloud cover Sat but perhaps there`s partial clearing by late in the day. PoPs Sat aob 20% W...20-30% toward the coast...w/ highs in the mid/upr 70s-around 80F. Expecting drying Sat night-Sun as low level flow becomes SSW ahead of a cold front tracking to the mtns by late in the day. With clearing...Sun turns out warmer...with PoPs aob 14%. Lows Sat night in the low/mid 60s. Highs Sun 80-84F. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A cold front is expected to approach the region Sunday night and Monday bringing a chance of showers and possibly thunderstorms to the region through much of the day on Monday. There is still a bit of a timing difference between the GFS and the ECMWF with the GFS trending slightly faster. However, have started to see the models come into better agreement compared to previous model runs. Precipitation may linger across far southeastern portions of the region into early Tuesday morning. High pressure builds into the area Tuesday into Wednesday with much cooler and drier air being ushered in behind the front. Highs on Tuesday will be much cooler than what we have been seeing with temperatures only in the mid to upper 60s. By Tuesday night, temperatures will fall into the 40s for many locations away from the coast. Drier and cooler weather is expected to last through the extended period with highs in the 60s and 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. Temperatures begin to moderate by the end of the period. It should be noted that while these values will feel much cooler, temperatures will be close to normal for mid October. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Adverse aviation conditions are expected to continue through 06Z TAF period. A stationary boundary located just south and high pressure located over New England will allow for onshore winds/increased low level moisture through Friday. MVFR ceilings will persist at all TAF sites through much of the night and into Friday with little improvement anticipated. Periods of IFR ceilings will be possible this morning for primarily locations south and west of RIC. Drizzle/mist will allow for the potential for reduced visibilities this morning. Any reduced visibilities will improve after sunrise, but MVFR ceilings linger through the day. Breezy northeast winds are expected on Friday with gusts in excess of 20 knots possible near the coast. Outlook: Sub-VFR conditions are expected to linger through early Saturday before gradually improving by Saturday afternoon. Sub-VFR conditions will once again be possible Saturday night into early Sunday morning in the form of low ceilings. High pressure builds into the region on Sunday allowing for a return to primarily VFR conditions. A cold front approaches the region late Sunday and into Monday bringing yet another chance for adverse aviation conditions to the region. && .MARINE... The NE winds continue to be rather gusty aoa SCA levels across the marine area so will be extending/adjusting the headlines based off of latest obs and model guid. Winds begin to slowly diminish later today and this evening as the gradient from the high to the north begins to relax. Have even extended the SCA over the coastal waters through Sat night as seas will be slow to drop below 5 ft. Given the current near shore sea heights, will be extending the high surf through the morning hours for now. Day crew can adjust as necessary when nearshore seas drop below 8 ft. Improving conditions Sun with S/SW winds of 10-15 kt. The next cold front progged across the waters Sun night with a rather impressive CAA surge noted behind it for Mon. Bumped up wind into strong SCA range for now. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Tidal departures averaging 1.5 to 2.0 feet above normal this morning. Given the high tides progged, plan is to keep current advisories/statements and extend some into the next high tide cycle. Seems the water in the bay is having a hard time leaving as the current low tide levels are coming in higher than expected. Am concerned about some places across the middle Ches Bay reaching moderate flooding later today, but confidence not high enough to go with a watch and or warning attm.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ021>023. NC...High Surf Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for VAZ089- 090-093. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VAZ084>086-523>525. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for VAZ095>100. High Surf Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ098>100. Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for VAZ075-077-078. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630- 631. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ632- 633. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ638. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM LONG TERM...AJB AVIATION...AJB/JDM MARINE...MPR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ

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