Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 221106 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 706 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in from the northwest today ushering in a drier and more seasonable airmass to the Mid-Atlantic region. High pressure remains over the area through the middle of the week, before sliding offshore later in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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The latest wv imagery shows a trough digging through the Ern Great Lakes early this morning, with a ridge now well offshore. At the surface, a cold front is off the Mid-Atlantic coast, with high pressure centered over the Midwest. Temperatures as of 700am range from around 60/low 60s over the Piedmont, to the mid/upper 60s from the interior coastal plain to the Ern Shore with low 70s lingering over se VA/ne NC. Dewpoints have dropped to 60-65 across the area. Sky cover is mostly clear with a few lingering bands of mid and high clouds. High pressure will continue to build in from the northwest today. 850mb temperatures around ~14C this afternoon will support more seasonable highs in the mid 80s with a drier well mixed airmass. Afternoon dewpoints are expected to drop into the upper 50s to low 60s resulting in a considerably more comfortable humidity level. Mostly sunny with few-sct aftn cu.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Surface high pressure settles over the area tonight through Wednesday providing continued dry and pleasant weather. Overall expect Mostly clear/sunny conditions with some aftn cu. The wind (averaging aob 10 mph) will become ne Tuesday, which will result in highs ranging from the upper 70s/around 80 at the immediate coast, to the low/mid 80s inland. This will be after morning lows in the upper 50s/low 60s, with mid 60s for sern coastal locations. The wind remains e/ne into Wednesday, with the airmass warming slightly. Highs range from around 80/low 80s at the coast, to the mid 80s inland. This will be after morning lows in the upper 50s/low 60s. Humidity levels will remain comfortable with dewpoints in the upper 50s/low 60s Tuesday and Wednesday aftns. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Surface high pressure pushes farther offshore Wednesday night and Thursday as upper level ridging builds over the Southeast. Temperatures and dewpoints will moderate Thursday as the ridge builds and surface winds become southerly. Dry conditions prevail, with highs warming into the mid to upper 80`s. Medium range guidance continues the trend of a weaker northern stream trough now located over southeast Canada Friday. An associated weak cold front approaches the region Friday and crosses the area Friday night. A lack of appreciable forcing thanks to the building ridge and the shortwave energy passing well north of the forecast area will result in a dry forecast. Highs Friday warming back into the upper 80`s to low 90`s. The weak front stalls along the coast through the weekend, but again with the upper level high over the region and limited moisture, will carry silent POP`s. Highs this weekend in the upper 80`s to low 90`s. Average highs this time of year are generally in the mid 80`s. && .AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A cold front is pushing offshore early this morning, with high pressure and drier air building in from the nw. High pressure will continue to build into the area today with an 8-12kt nnw wind and few-sct aftn cu. High pressure builds over the region tonight and remains over the area through mid-week, before sliding offshore later in the week. Dry and vfr conditions are expected throughout the week. && .MARINE... Opted to drop headlines for the upper James early this morning as winds have become more north than northeast. Will continue with headlines for the remaining Rivers as gusts nearest the Bay remain around 20 knots. Otherwise, no changes made. Previous discussion... Cold front has pushed offshore early this morning, with a northwest surge ongoing over the waters. Speeds are generally 15 to 20 knots with gusts of 25 knots. Some of the higher elevated sensors gusting to near 30 knots, and with favorable mixing due to warm waters, expect some higher gusts to also be observed near the water surface. Waves generally 1-2 feet, but expect an increase to 2-4 feet by daybreak. The national wave model kicks seas from 2-3 feet up to 4-5 feet by daybreak as well. Cold air advection begins to wane mid morning as high pressure nudges in from the west. Winds become northerly 10-15 knots late morning. Waves subside to 2-3 feet late morning with seas subsiding to 3-4 feet by early afternoon. Seas 2- 3 feet late afternoon. No changes made to end times of headlines. High pressure builds over PA today through tonight with flow becoming north to northeast. The gradient strengthens slightly tonight with northeast winds of 15 to 20 knots over the coastal waters. Seas respond, building back to 3-4 feet. Northeast winds diminish Tuesday as the high pushes off the Northeast coast. A period of sub-SCA onshore flow (varying from northeast to southeast) is expected Tuesday through Thursday. Waves generally 1-2feet and seas 2-3 feet. The next cold front approaches the region Friday, reaching the waters late Friday night into Saturday morning. The front then stalls near the coast for the weekend as high pressure builds into southeast Canada and the Northeast. This would indicate a period of onshore flow with seas possibly reaching SCA thresholds late in the weekend. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Strong north to northwest winds have pushed tidal departures upwards of 1 foot in the lower Chesapeake Bay early this morning. Winds will subside mid morning, resulting in dropping departures as the tide begins to come back in. Tidal areas in the lower Chesapeake Bay may reach within one half foot of minor flooding during high tide late morning through early afternoon, but no flooding is anticipated. A period of onshore flow is expected through the end of the work week, but flow is expected to remain light so flooding impacts are not anticipated. && .EQUIPMENT... Due to an azimuth motor failure, the KAKQ 88D will be out of service until sometime on Monday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ635- 636-638. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630>634-650-652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...SAM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SAM EQUIPMENT...AKQ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.