Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 130700 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 200 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A complex area of low pressure pushes across the Mid-Atlantic region tonight into early Saturday. High pressure builds in from the northwest Saturday night through Sunday...with a return to colder weather for the latter half of the weekend through the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... ***ECG AND SBY set/tied record highs today*** Widespread rain showers are moving across far eastern VA/Lower MD/NE NC this evening...with another skinny line of showers crossing the Piedmont. So far no tstms to speak of but do have pockets of moderate rain embedded with current pcpn. Fog is widespread and locally dense over our local marine zones currently and have marine dense fog advisory in effect overnight to account for this. Watching next batch of pcpn currently moving through the NC Piedmont which will be a concern for us during the late evening and early overnight hours. Rain chances ramp back up once again by late evening as upper shortwave over the deep south ejects northeast toward the local area, as the associated sfc low tracks into the region from the W-SW. This feature will be pushing a cold front across the local area late tonight into Saturday morning, with temperatures falling off only slightly toward dawn. Meager low-level lapse rates and CAPE will be a limiting factor to overall convective potential. However, RAP/HRRR each depict possibility of a broken line of convection pushing through far southern & SE VA/NE NC between 03-06z, which will likely portend to a few gusty showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder. We have carried over likely to categorical PoPs for SHRAs tonight...w/ a round of +RA possible late evening/early morning. Remaining mild for much of tonight...w/ early morning lows to range from the l40s NW to the l50s SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... Sfc cold front slides off the coast Sat morning...resulting in winds veering around to the NNW. Quasi-downslope flow will scour out most of the showers by Saturday afternoon, bringing some partial clearing. However, expect more clouds than sun once again on average underneath the upper trough. Expect significant post-frontal low level CAA to wait until late in the day due to the primary upper trough being slow to cross the region. Highs early in the day range from the l-m40s far NW to the m50s SE...then temperatures to remain steady or slowly fall through the afternoon. Upper trough axis crosses the area late Saturday night into Sunday morning, with stronger surge of CAA. Lows Sat night mainly ranging through the 20s. Dry/cold wx Sunday, as ~1040mb arctic high pressure builds from the Upper Midwest toward the eastern Lakes/interior northeast Sunday, briefly sliding over the area into Monday. Despite increasing amounts of sunshine...highs will only be in the l-m30s on Sunday, warming slightly on Monday ahead of reinforcing shot of Arctic air into the middle of next week. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Low confidence forecast beyond Monday as 12z/11 suite of models are having a difficult time in resolving differences wrt handling of a strong upper trough/closed low digging across the Great Lakes/Northeast next week. Will lean toward a blend of the 12z GFS/GEFS/CMC which all seem to be in reasonable agreement with the aforementioned trough/closed low pivoting SE to a centralized position over Lake Erie by 12z Tues. From there, this feature slowly lifts NE into New England by 12z Thurs. In doing so, it will force a cold front through the local area on Tues with high pressure returning next Wed/Thu. What remains to be seen as whether or not the front produces any pcpn as it passes on Tues, as it would probably be cold enough aloft to generate some snow showers (at least NE of the I-64 corridor). Have placed some low PoPs in these areas. Otherwise, next week is looking dry and chilly. Highs Monday from the mid 30s N to low 40s S. Highs Tuesday from the mid 30s N to the mid 40s south. Highs next Wed/Thu in the 30s. Lows through the period primarily in the teens and 20s. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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RA has largely moved off the coast attm...potential ISOLD SHRAs into the early morning hours...otherwise VRB BKN CIGS and a bit of a gusty SW wind. Sfc low pres and a cold front push across the region from the WSW by mid/late morning today...w/ improving CIGS this aftn. Drier air arrives from the NW this afternoon- Sun. Winds become NW by/shortly after 12z/13...gusting up to 20-25 kt...waning tonight-Sun. Hi pres locates W of the region Sun-Mon providing mainly VFR conditions. Unsettled wx w/ possible restrictions late Tue-Wed as next cold front crosses the region.
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&& .MARINE... Update this evening extended the Marine Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST Sat for all waters. Cams/sfc obs continue to show visibilities under 1/2 nm nearshore. Visibitiles over the lower Bay and James River may fluctiate at time, but periods of dense fog should persist overnight. Another band of rain coming accross central NC as of 730 pm will move across the Bay and coast shortly after midnight. Flow ahead of a strong cold front approaching from the west is supporting these areas as showers and gusty winds through the night. South winds will range from mainly 15 to 25 knots ahead of the cold front. The front crosses the waters around 12Z Saturday and winds turn to the northwest behind the front. Winds will remain gusty behind the front as much colder air works into the area, high end SCA conditions are expected Saturday. SCA may also be needed for the Rivers, but decided to hold off at this time and let the night shift reevaluate. Seas remain elevated at or above 5 feet over the coastal zones through early Monday morning. Canadian high pressure builds into the region early next week allowing for diminishing winds and seas. Another low pressure system may impact the waters by mid-week, bringing a return to SCA conditions. && .CLIMATE... Record high temperatures today (Jan 12) RIC 71/2005 ORF 75/1890 *SBY 67/2017 *ECG 73/2017 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ630>638- 650-652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for ANZ630>634. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST Monday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...ALB MARINE...AJB/JAO CLIMATE... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.