Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 290756 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 356 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THEN OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE AREA THIS MORNING...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. NEXT SYSTEM DIVING SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MID- LEVEL MOISTURE...ENOUGH FOR SCT-BKN CLOUDS. ANOTHER DRY/PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED WITH SKY CONDITIONS AVERAGING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPR 80S...UPR 70S ALONG THE BEACHES ON THE EASTERN SHORE. PARTLY CLOUDY AND MILDER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE TUE AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/TN VALLEY. WILL CARRY 30-40% POPS ALONG AND WEST OF I-95 FOR THE AFTN HRS...LOWERING TO 20% ALONG THE COAST. PARTLY SUNNY TUE W/ HIGH TEMPS FROM THE UPR 80S TO LOW/MID 90S. NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DIVES SE THROUGH OH/TN VALLEY BY WED...APPROACHING THE FA LATE (WED). AGAIN WILL HAVE 20-30% POPS ACROSS THE FA FOR WED AFTN. OTW...PARTLY CLOUDY TUE NIGHT/WED. LOW TEMPS TUE NIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS WED MAINLY 85-90F. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD...CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE ERN CONUS. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION WEDS NIGHT...STALLING OVER THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. PERTURBATIONS IN WNW FLOW ALOFT PROGGED TO DROP OVER THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE WEEK IN CONCERT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE (PWATS CLIMBING TO AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0+ INCHES WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S). WILL RETAIN 30-40% POPS DURING PEAK CLIMO TIMES...BUT TIMING OF BEST POPS WILL BE DIFFICULT ATTM DUE TO TIMING PERTURBATIONS ALONG WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND POTENTIAL UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES. TEMPS GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL THURS AND FRI AS H85 TEMPS LEVEL OFF AROUND 15-17C. HIGHS MID-UPPER 80S INLAND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST. LOWS WEDS AND THURS NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. NRN STREAM ENERGY DROPS OVER THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION/OH VALLEY SAT...WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT RETURNING TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. AMPLIFYING FLOW LIFTS THE STALLED BOUNDARY NWD SAT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT WITH THE NRN STREAM WAVE APPROACH THE REGION SAT...CROSSING THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED ATTM...SO WILL KEEP POPS 10-20 PCT SAT AND SUN. RETURN FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO THE LOW 90S (SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE COAST). && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE WIND WILL BECOME S/SE BY AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS AOB 10KT. THE HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL BRING A 20-30% CHC OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS. LOW PRESSURE AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING AND INCREASED CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A NW WIND TO DIMINISH...AND THEN BECOME S/SE BY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH THEN BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH THE WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND AVERAGING AOB 15KT. AN EXCEPTION HOWEVER IS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE BAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT LIFTS THROUGH THE DELMARVA TUESDAY EVENING. THIS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF A 15-20KT S WIND ALONG WITH 2- 3FT WAVES. WIND SPEEDS REACH 15-20KT OVER THE OCEAN AS WELL WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3-4FT OUT NEAR 20 NM N OF CHINCOTEAGUE. WEAK LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W BY THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. THE WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STALL OVER THE REGION. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630-631. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...AJZ

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