Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 131548 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1048 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A trough of low pressure moves off the coast by this afternoon, as high pressure is slow to build in from the west. The high will settle over the region Tuesday through Wednesday. A mainly dry cold front will drop across the region very late Wednesday night into early Thursday afternoon. A strong cold front will affect the area over the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Latest analysis indicates sfc low pressure off the VA eastern shore, with strong sfc high pressure (~1035 mb) centered across central/southern IL. Still a relatively light northerly flow across the local area, and even with main rain shield now exiting all except far SE VA/NE NC, low clouds remain over the remainder of the CWA. Removed PoPs except across the far SE for the rest of the day, but satellite trends suggest it will take several more hrs until the low clouds scour out, particularly over the eastern sections. This due to a fairly weak pressure gradient and low sun angle this time of year. Forecast has been updated to go more pessimistic with cloud cover (especially through early aftn), and to lower highs a few degrees most areas. Expecting some gradual clearing after 17-18Z west of I-95 and by late aftn closer to the coast. Temperatures will be slow to rise until the some comes out, but highs should still jump to around 50 F or the lower 50s most areas assuming the sun does eventually come out (if it does not then highs inland will tend to stay in the upper 40s).
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Drying continues tonight, as the center of high pressure builds SE thru the Great Lakes into the nrn OH Valley. Mostly clear to partly cloudy with lows ranging fm the mid 30s to the mid 40s. The high will build eastward and into the NE U.S. Tue through Tue night, with the ridge axis extending down into the Mid Atlc region. Partly to mostly sunny on Tue, with highs mainly in the lower to mid 50s. The surface high will be right over the area on Wed. Lows Tue night will range thru the 30s into the lower 40s. Highs on Wed will range fm the mid 50s to near 60. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The high slides off the coast Wed night, as a mainly dry cold front drops acrs the region very late Wed night into early Thu aftn. High pressure builds back down over the area Thu aftn thru Fri. Lows Wed night will mainly range fm the upper 30s to mid 40s. Highs on Thu 60 to 65. Lows Thu night will range fm the mid 30s to mid 40s. Highs on Fri will range fm the mid 50s to near 60. The next significant weather maker looks to push into the region Fri night into Sat. Models differ on the exact timing, but trends have been wetter in the long range guidance. Strong return flow Saturday sets up ahead of a sharp cold front. Model timing differs by almost 18 hours, but blending the guidance suggests increase shower chances Saturday and perhaps into Saturday night. Cannot rule out some thunder given the intensity of this system. Expect a sharp return to colder temps next late next weekend behind the front. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Expect conditions to deteriorate to IFR at all TAF sites between 07Z and 12Z this morning, as area of rain moves into and across the region in advance of a trough of low pressure. Then, as the pcpn and associated trough move east and off the coast late this morning into this aftn, conditions will improve to MVFR then VFR later this aftn into this evening. OUTLOOK...VFR conditions then expected for Mon night thru Wed as high pressure builds back into and over the area. && .MARINE... Weak sfc trough lingers invof waters w/ weak sfc hi pres just inland into this morning...while a cold front approaches from the W. That front exits the waters by late today...to be followed by (rather short-lived) CAA on increased mainly N winds (15-25 kt) and corresponding rise in waves/seas. Have added the srn Ches Bay...Currituck Sound...and mid ocean waters to the SCA. Highest winds/gusts from about 03Z- 17Z/14. Conditions improve Tue afternoon...though w/ NE fetch continuing into Wed will extend SCA over the srn ocean waters through Wed morning as seas remain slow to fall blo 5 ft. Sfc hi pres returns by Wed...before another cold front crosses the waters by late Thu. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to noon EST Tuesday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ632. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to noon EST Tuesday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 3 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ654. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to noon EST Wednesday for ANZ656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB/TMG NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...TMG/JAO LONG TERM...JAO AVIATION...TMG MARINE...ALB

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