Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 220806 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 406 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A trough of low pressure will linger over the Mid Atlantic today through Monday. This trough will gradually move offshore Monday night into Tuesday. An upper level ridge will build in from the west by the middle of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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GOES water vapor imagery shows a wave of low pressure gradually lifting to the ne off the coast. Meanwhile, a deep vigorous trough is digging sewd through the Great Lakes and toward the Appalachians. The low-level flow is rather weak in the wake of the departing system, so low clouds are lingering along with areas of light rain or drizzle, which at this time is most concentrated over the Lower MD Ern Shore. Temperatures average from the mid 50s to around 60. Nearly saturated conditions are occurring. However, stratus has prevailed instead of fog, and this should continue through the early morning hours. The upper trough will continue to dig sewd into the Mid-Atlantic today, with 500mb heights dropping to around -2 st dev per 22/03z SREF by later this afternoon/early evening. The best lift will center over nrn portions of the area by this afternoon, with likely PoPs forecast n of I-64, with 30-40% farther s. Mostly cloudy to overcast today and cool with cloud cover holding high temperatures to -1.5-2 st dev. Forecast highs range from the upper 50s to low 60s across the nrn 2/3rds of the area, to the mid 60s from the sw Piedmont to ne NC.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The upper trough settles over se VA and Ern NC tonight into at least Monday morning and remaining -2 st dev, before beginning a slow drift offshore by Monday afternoon. Mostly cloudy to overcast conditions continue along with well below normal temperatures during the day. The best area of lift gradually sinks swd through the area tonight into Monday morning, with a corresponding zone of likely PoPs passing from central/e-central VA to se VA/ne NC by Monday morning. Rainfall should become more showery Monday afternoon with a slight chc of thunder over the Piedmont where there will be some instability. Highs Monday range from the mid 60s along the coast to the upper 60s inland after morning lows in the low/mid 50s. The upper system gradually pushes offshore and begins to fill Monday night into Tuesday. Partial clearing is possible over the Piedmont Monday night, but sky cover should remain mostly cloudy along the coast along with a chc of showers. By Tuesday partly to mostly sunny conditions are expected farther inland with partly to mostly cloudy conditions persisting closer to the coast. Chc PoPs will be maintained along the coast where some upper energy lingers with thunder possible as there will be instability. Warmer with highs ranging from 75-80 inland, and 70-75 closer to the coast (upper 60s at the immediate coast).
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Sfc high pressure settles off the Southeast Coast as upper level ridging resides directly over the entire East Coast Tue night through Thu. Developing sw flow Thu night/Fri will likely open the door for increasing humidity and rain/thunderstorm chances Thu/Fri aftns as conditions become increasingly unstable. Overall, high temps should run around 5-7 degrees above normal Wed-Fri. Highs generally in the mid 80s (mid 70s-low 80s beaches). Low temps also running about 5 degrees above normal Wed/Thu night. Seasonal lows Tue night in the mid 50s nw to lower 60s se. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A moist and unsettled pattern will continue at the TAF sites during today thru Mon. Early this morng, sfc low pressure was well off the srn NJ and DE cst, and will continue to move ne into the nrn Atlc today. But, at the same time and thru tngt, upr air low pressure will drop down into/ovr the fcst area to just offshr. The upr low and associated trof will finally slide ene of the region Tue aftn. Expect mainly IFR or MVFR conditions at the taf sites today into Mon morng with continued chcs for showers. OUTLOOK...Flight conditions will slowly improve with VFR/MVFR expected later Mon outside of some patchy IFR fog early Mon morng. High pressure blds over the Mid Atlc States with mainly dry weather Tue aftn thru Thu. && .MARINE... SCA in effect through 4 AM EDT for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Little Creek VA due to northwest to north winds up to 20 knots. Previous Discussion... Sfc low pressure located about 50-70 miles east of the VA/NC border late this aftn. The low will continue to track ne tonight as an upper trough swings into the Mid Atlantic Region...allowing ne winds aob 15kt and onshore swell to persist during this time. Seas currently 6-8ft srn waters/4-6ft nrn waters. As the low tracks newd...seas will build to 6-8ft and subside to 4-5ft south. Waves on Ches Bay averaging 2-3ft with up to 4ft in the mouth of the Bay due to 4-5ft onshore swell. SCA flags remain in effect for the Bay through 600 am Sun morning. See next paragraph regarding SCA flags for coastal waters. The trough moves overhead on Sun and becomes a closed low spinning over the region. Meanwhile, a frontal boundary from the exiting sfc low will stall along the Carolina coast and another sfc low is expected to develop invof Cape Hatteras. This feature is expected to get pulled nwd just off the Mid Atlantic coast Sun through Mon before moving north near the srn New England coast Mon night into Tue. A brief lull in ne-e winds aob 15kt anticipated Sun with winds becoming n 15-20kt Bay/Sound/coastal waters (gusts to around 25kt coastal waters) after midnight Sun night through most of Mon with another round of SCA conditions expected. Seas on Sun begin at 3-4ft srn waters/4-6ft nrn waters and then average 4-5ft all coastal waters by late Sun aftn...only to build to 5-7ft srn coastal waters/4-6ft nrn coastal waters after midnight Sun night into Mon. SCA flags have been extended for all coastal waters through early Mon evening although they will likely be extended into Tue for seas above 5ft. Anticipated SCA flags for Bay/Sound will need to be hoisted during a later forecast pkg issuance time as they will extend into the 4th period. Conditions quiet down Tue night through Thu as high pressure at the sfc and aloft build over the region. Generally sw winds around 10kt or less should be anticipated. Seas average 2-3ft Tue night and then 2ft Wed/Thu. Waves average 1-2ft. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...TMG MARINE...BMD/TMG

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