Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 270244 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1044 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... OFFSHORE RIDGE DOMINATES OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER BY MORNING. WARM AND HUMID WITH LOWS 65-70. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... OFFSHORE BERMUDA RIDGE CONTINUES THE SUMMER HEAT/HUMIDITY THRU THE PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PERSISTENT TROF WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE APPRCHG MSTR FROM THE WSW WILL LIKELY BE THE TRIGGER FOR SCT CONVECTION. TIMING RATHER PROBLEMATIC GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE OF S/W ENERGY EJECTING NE FROM DSPTG MCS`S....BUT THE EMPHASIS OF THIS FCST WILL BE FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY. HIGHEST POPS (40-50%) WILL BE ACROSS THE NWRN THIRD OF FA...20-30% REST OF FA XPCT THE NE CORNER OF NC WHERE LTL IF ANY SUPPORT SEEN FOR PCPN. THREAT WILL BE FOR LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS GIVEN THE PW`S AOA 1.5 INCHES...DP TMPS IN THE 60S AND RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE L-M80S...XCPT 70S AT THE BEACHES. LOWS 65-70. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF SAT WITH AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE BREAKING DOWN OVER THE ERN SEABOARD AS A COLD FRNT DROPS INTO THE MED ATLC REGION. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODELS IN REGARDS TO WHEN THE FRNT MAKES IT INTO THE LOCAL AREA WHICH WOULD AFFECT TIMING OF PCPN...WITH THE 12Z GFS FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECWMF. FOR NOW WITH THIS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT WILL FORECAST 20-30% POPS SAT INCREASING TO 30-50% SUN WITH THE FRNT IN THE VICINITY. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BOTH DAYS WITH HIGHS AVGG IN THE MID TO UPR 80S. CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUES INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS NOT QUITE AS WARM AS THE WEEKEND...HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S ON AVG. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING S/SW WINDS DURING THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. MOS OUTPUT AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUB VFR CONDS MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT GUIDANCE IS RATHER INCONSISTENT. TAFS ARE BASED PRIMARILY ON TRENDS OF THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WHICH EMPHASIZE MVFR CIGS. WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...WOULD EXPECT SOME PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS AS WELL...MAINLY BETWEEN 10 AND 15Z. CONVECTION WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFT 18Z. OUTLOOK...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE...BUT LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS ARE EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY WITH LESSER CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY. OUTSIDE OF TSTMS... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...SOME MVFR AND PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE LIKELY FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE. && .MARINE... SCA ISSUED THIS MORNG FOR THE BAY CONTINUES THRU THIS EVENG. WITH A SIMILAR PATTERN AS YESTERDAY WHICH HAD FREQUENT GUSTS TO 20 KT EXPECT S WINDS TO PICK UP TO 15-20 KT LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENG. SUB- SCA CONDS OVER THE OTHER WTRS WITH 15-20 KT WINDS OVER CSTL WTRS AND 10-15 KT OVER THE RIVERS AND SOUND. S FLOW CONTINUES INTO WED WITH STRONG SFC HI PRES OFFSHORE. EXPECT SIMILAR WINDS AS TDA WITH WAVES OVER THE BAY AT 2-3 FT AND SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS AT 2-4 FT. PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS A BIT ON THU...AND WINDS SHOULD BE A FEW KT LESS OVERALL. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN SLY AVGG 10-15 KT FOR THE MOST PART INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632- 634. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...DAP/LSA MARINE...MAS/LSA

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