Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 192009 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 409 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary will remain situated over the local area through Saturday. A true cold front crosses the region late Sunday into Sunday night...with high pressure building in for much of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Ill-defined sfc boundary lies just S of the VA-NC border this afternoon. Weak wave of moisture tracking E through SE VA-NE NC attm. Isolated/SCT shras-tstms w/ this weak feature now...and expected to continue into early tonight. Meanwhile...a nice summer wx day from about the I64 corridor on NNE. A weakening trend in pcpn expected after midnight. Vrb clouds-mostly cloudy S...SKC- partly cloudy N. Due to light onshore sfc winds...introducing patchy fog (after midnight)...mainly over interior SRN VA...and on the interior of the Lower MD Eastern Shore. Lows ranging through the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... Remnant/weak boundary lingers across SE VA/coastal NC Sat. Although not an exact repeat of today, Sat likely to be similar to today w/ mainly diurnally favored shras/tstms. Again will have highest POPs 30-50% along/S of I-64...and POPs aob 20% on NNE. Vrb clouds warm/humid with highs mainly from 85 to 90f. Most models conmtinue to show period of limited convective potential Sat night into early Sun afternoon as low level flow becomes more SSW. A much more significant cold front will be approaching from the NW Sun afternoon as trough aloft sharpens across the Great Lakes/OH Valley. Continuing w/ POPs to 40-60% in most places by mid-late Sun afternoon as cold front arrives. Otherwise...partly-mostly cloudy warm and humid w/ lows Sat night in the 70s. Highs Sun in the u80s to l90s. Cold front will push off the coast Sun ngt w/ at least SCT shras- tstms (mainly up to midnight). Sfc hi pres will then build into the region providing much drier and more comfortable wx. Lows Sun night from the m60s NW to the m70s SE. Highs Mon in the l-m80s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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High pressure will dominate most of the extended period, as it blds into and ovr the area for Mon into Wed, then slides into the Nrn Atlc for later Wed thru Fri. Expect Dry wx and comfortable temps and humidity levels Mon ngt thru at least Wed, then warmer temps and increasing humidity for Thu and Fri, as winds turn to the SE or S. A cold front will start to approach fm the WNW late Fri. Lows in the upr 50s to mid 60s Mon ngt, in the lower to mid 60s Tue ngt, in the 60s Wed ngt, and in the mid 60s to lower 70s Thu ngt. Highs in the lower to mid 80s Tue and Wed, ranging thru the 80s Thu, and in the mid 80s to near 90 Fri.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions at all terminals early this afternoon. Diffuse frontal boundary persists over the region this afternoon, and will continue to dominate the weather through tonight. Showers and tstms developing attm across south central/southeast VA and northeast NE, and have accounted for these in the TAFs with vcsh/vcts as appropriate. Current radar imagery indicates best chance for a terminal to get a tstms in the next couple of hours is KORF, and have inserted a TEMPO group through 20Z. Should remain dry through the 18Z TAF period at KSBY and probably KRIC. May also need to amend for tstms at KECG before the afternoon is out, but still uncertain about timing. Except for KSBY, fair amount of cloudiness to persist across the terminals overnight, which should limit fog development. Think some fog possible at KSBY late tonight. Thus, mainly VFR expected tonight through 18z Saturday. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected again Saturday, with additional showers/tstms expected Sunday/Sunday night as a stronger cold front approaches and moves through the region Sunday and Sunday night. Behind the front, VFR and much drier weather expected for the beginning of next week. && .MARINE...
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No headlines in the short term tngt thru Sun. A couple of weak boundaries will affect the area tngt into Sat, with a warm front followed by a strong cold front affecting the area late Sat into early Mon morning. Expect winds 10 kt or less fm vrbl directions tngt thru Sun morng, then SW 5 to 15 kt late Sun into Sun evening becoming NW or N 10 to 20 kt late Sun ngt into Mon morning. High pressure blds into and over the region for Mon thru Tue, then slides off the New England/nrn Mid Atlc coast during Wed. N winds 5 to 15 kt Mon ngt, NNE winds 5 to 15 kt Tue, then NE 5 to 15 kt Tue ngt and Wed. Waves 1-2 ft, seas arnd 2 ft thru Sun, then waves 1-3 ft and seas 2-4 ft late Sun ngt thru Tue.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...WRS MARINE...TMG

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