Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 201917 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 317 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIFTS NORTH ALONG...THEN OFF...THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST RIDGES SWWD INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS RESULTING IN A VERY NICE EARLY FALL DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ALONG AS WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. TEMPS ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT JUST OFF THE SE COAST IS GENERATING CONSIDERABLE CLDS ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN DELMARVA...SE VA AND NE NC. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO MOVED NWWD FROM THE ALBEMARLE SOUND INTO OUR NE NC COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO DRIER AIR INLAND. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BE EAST OF DELMARVA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE SIDED CLOSED TO THE 12Z GFS WITH REGARD TO WESTERN EXTENT OF PRECIP AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS...AS NAM APPEARS TOO AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING BOTH CLOUDS AND PRECIP NWWD. POP/WEATHER FORECAST SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE...ALTHOUGH CHC POPS PUSHED SOMEWHAT WWD INTO DELMARVA/SE VA AND A GOOD PART OF NE NC. LIKELY POPS FORECAST BY MET GUIDANCE SEEM TOO HIGH...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER TO...BUT STILL A BIT BELOW...MAV GUIDANCE. ANY PRECIP WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHT ABOVE THIS MORNINGS TEMPS AWAY FROM THE BAY/OCEAN...WITH MANY AREAS AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW 60. CLOSER TO THE BAY/OCEAN...CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT...AND EXPECT IT AGAIN TONIGHT IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL WILL BE ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY AREAS SEEING THE UPPER 80S...AND ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO MAKE INTO THE LOWER 80S. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY EVENING. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED. HAVE INCREASED POPS SUNDAY EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT AREA TO 30%...MAINLY IN DEFERENCE TO NAM12 PRECIP DEPICTION. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...BUT ANY PRECIP BEYOND 04Z EXPECTED TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES. THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50. A SUNNY PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF NE TO E WINDS WHICH MAY HAVE SOME MARINE IMPLICATIONS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. MODELS INDICATE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH SOME OF IT SPREADING INTO OUR AREA. SLGT CHC SHOWERS ARE IN THE FCST ERN VA/NE NC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN ENE WIND...WITH SPEEDS OF 8-20KT ALONG THE COAST...AND 5-10KT INLAND. CONDS ARE GENERALLY VFR ACROSS THE CWA BUT TAF SITES ALONG THE COAST...ORF/ECG/PHF...HAVE SHOWN SOME TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMES IN OFF THE WATER. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE TREND THRU THE AFTN/EVENING AS THE LOW GRADUALLY MOVES UP THE COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC -SHRA AND/OR -TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND PREVAILS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... UPDATE...A SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A SCA IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND THROUGH 4PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE SCA WINDS ~20KT ENE HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FT WILL OCCUR IN THE LOWER BAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A 10-15KT ENE WIND. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE WIND WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 5-6FT OUT NEAR 20NM. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ALLOWING THE WIND TO SHIFT TO N-NE AND DIMINISH TO AOB 10KT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ~5FT AND HENCE THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE RACES OFF TO THE NE SUNDAY...WITH THE WIND EVENTUALLY BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A NNE WIND SHOULD CONTINUE EARLY SUNDAY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS...SO THE SCA FOR THIS PARTICULAR ZONE HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS NEAR TERM...WRS SHORT TERM...WRS LONG TERM...MAS/JAO AVIATION...AJZ/JEF MARINE...MAS/JEF

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