Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 111411 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1011 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TODAY...THEN WASHES OUT OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE NORTH AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE NW LATE TODAY BEFORE STALLING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING WSW AND LACKING THE NECESSARY ENERGY TO PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THE BULK OF ANY MOISTURE TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER... DO EXPECT AN ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM TO CLIP NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE A WARM AFTERNOON WITH SW FLOW BOOSTING TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S (COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST). SUNSHINE THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS 50-55.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE FRONT DISSIPATES OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VA ON SATURDAY. WILL MAINTAIN SOME CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WITH THE FRONT NEARBY...AND CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER DUE TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT SUPPLIED BY THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION WX IN THE FCST FOR SAT ATTM. LIGHT NE-E LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO LOWER A LITTLE FROM TODAY. HIGHS 65-70 ON THE EASTERN SHORE/IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE MID/UPR 70S WELL INLAND. PLEASANT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 50-55. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW THE FLOW TO TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH. THIS WILL HELP BOOST MAX TEMPS ONCE AGAIN. EXPECTING HIGHS MAINLY 75-80 WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MODEL FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON MON. THEN...TRANSITION TO A HIGH CHC OR LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS MON NGT INTO TUE EVENG...FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR WED AND THU. LATEST GFS/ECMWF INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...ALTHO THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS STILL LIKELY TOO FAST WITH THE APPROACH OF MOISTURE LATE MON AND THE SUBSEQUENT DRYING LATE TUE. SO...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE SLGTLY SLOWER ECMWF MODEL FOR THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LO PRES AREAS PRODUCING SHOWERS MON NGT INTO TUE NGT. DECREASING CHCS FOR SHOWERS FM W TO E TUE NGT INTO EARLY WED MORNG. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD FM THE GREAT LAKES EWRD INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND WED THRU THU. THAT HI WILL PROVIDE DRY WX AND COOLER TEMPS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPR 50S MON MORNG...IN THE 50S TUE MORNG...AND IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S WED AND THU MORNGS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 70S MON...RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S TUE...RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S WED...AND RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S THU. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST TODAY. A SW WIND OF 10-15KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...BEFORE BECOMING GUSTY (TO AROUND 25KT) AFTER 14Z. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW TODAY AND DROPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY (20-30%) OF -SHRA MAINLY FROM RIC-SBY. THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE SATURDAY...WITH LIGHT E-NE WIND ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE RE-BUILDS OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY RESULTING IN A SSW WIND AVERAGING 15-20KT OCEAN/SOLID 15KT ELSEWHERE. A FEW 20KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN TWO BAY ZONES AND RIVERS...BUT OVERALL STRONG STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL PRODUCE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. THE SCA FOR THE NRN TWO OCEAN ZONES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 17Z MAINLY FOR 5FT SEAS OUT NEAR 20 NM. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND DISSIPATES OVER NC SATURDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY LATER FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THEN E/NE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE W LATER MONDAY. THE WIND INITIALLY SHIFTS TO SE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN SSW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH THE WIND INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS. && .FIRE WEATHER... AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR MOST VA/NC COUNTIES. FUELS HAVE CONTINUED TO DRY AFTER THURSDAY`S WARM...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AND WITH MODEL GUIDANCE BEING NOTORIOUSLY TOO HIGH WITH AFTN DEW PTS THIS TIME OF YEAR IN SW FLOW PATTERNS AHEAD WEAK COLD FRONTS...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MIN RH VALUES DROP TO AT LEAST 25-30%...AND PROBABLY CLOSER TO 20% IN PORTIONS OF THE VA PIEDMONT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER GOOD MIXING DAY WHICH WILL CAUSE 20-FT WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH. MORE MARGINAL WINDS/MIN RH READINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ERN SHORE AND NC OUTER BANKS...SO HAVE KEPT THESE ZONES OUT OF THE SPS FOR NOW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTM MAINLY NORTH OF RICHMOND AND ON THE EASTERN SHORE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...EXPECTING PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS THRU LATE MONDAY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ012>017-030>032. VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048- 049-060>098. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650- 652.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM/DAP SHORT TERM...JDM/DAP LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...AJZ FIRE WEATHER...

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