Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 161738 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 138 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary remains over the region tonight and Thursday as high pressure builds over the Northeast states. The next cold front affects the area Friday into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Fog has burned off with the morning stratus quickly burning off as well. Latest high res data suggests most of the fa remains dry today due to lack of a trigger. However, decent agreement for isltd-sct convection possible btwn 18-23Z along sea breeze boundary. Went ahead and added isltd pops to the eastern shore this aftn and kept isltd-sct pops across sern VA and ne NC. Highs in the upr 80s-lwr 90s except 80-85 at the beaches. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Dry tonight with low temps in the upper 60s to lower 70s, then a chance for shras/tstms Thu mainly west of I-95 across the Piedmont for any storms developing along the mtns that would drift east. Otherwise partly-mostly sunny with high temps again upper 80s/around 90F. Next front approaches from the W Fri as low pressure spins over the nrn Great Lakes. Some increase in moisture will allow for a low chc PoP Fri morning, but the greater chances will be in the aftn and beyond. Highs Fri upper 80s to lower 90s with higher humidity. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A frontal boundary will slowly drop acrs the region Fri night into early Mon morning. Will maintain 30-40% Pops for most of the area fm Fri night thru Sun, and 15-30% Pops for Sun night. At this time, will go with a mainly dry fcst for Mon thru Tue, as sfc high pressure builds into the area then off the coast. Highs will mainly range fm the mid 80s to arnd 90 thru the period. Lows will range fm the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SCT-BKN SC/CU between 2-4K FT developing this afternoon. Could also see isltd seabreeze convection developing over the next few hrs at SBY/ORF/ECG but confidence not high enough to include at any one TAF site given the clouds just beginning to develop with daytime heating. Attention then turns to fog/stratus development once again tonight and Thursday morning. Models suggest best chcs for fog will over the Piedmont and Lwr Maryland Eastern shore where lcl IFR vsbys psbl toward daybreak. At this point, appears to be another night for both a stratus layer and fog, so went with a combo across inland sites not going below 1-2SM VSBYS for now. Pcpn should hold off until the end of the forecast period over the Piedmont. OUTLOOK...A cold front approaches the area Fri and settles over the region Sat bringing another chance for convection. && .MARINE... Update...SCA flags cancelled for nrn waters due to seas subsiding below 5 feet. Seas will continue to fall to around 3 feet through the rest of today. Previous discussion... Latest obs/buoy reports reflect light N-NE flow across the waters this morning, with a weak surface trough in place just SSE of the waters. Flow is W-SW south of the boundary, just south of the local area across the central Outer Banks, with NNW flow over SE VA and NE NC. Some patchy fog evident on early morning beach cameras. However, given nearshore Obs, appears any areal coverage of fog remains low. Also expect any fog to dissipate rather quickly after sunrise, and given that will therefore hold off with any headlines at this point. Obs reflect a gradual decrease in swell energy as distant Hurricane Gert pulls farther offshore of the Carolina/Mid- Atlantic Coast. Accordingly noting seas have subsided below SCA thresholds south of Cape Charles, and have therefore dropped SCA/Hazardous Seas flags for these areas. Farther north, SCA continues with seas lingering in the 4-6 ft range with wave periods of 10-12 seconds. Seas will continue to subside gradually this morning, with SCA headlines dropping off from south to north through midday. NWPS indicates potential for dropping headlines by no later than the mid-morning update, but for now will hold onto headlines. Will maintain high rip risk over all area beaches today with lingering long period swell from the departing Gert. Otherwise, Gert eventually moves well out into the Atlantic through tonight, as 1018+ mb sfc high pressure builds east from the ern Great Lakes twd New England through today. N-NE winds today veer to the E-SE tonight and Thursday, before becoming southerly as the high slides off the coast Thu night. A cold front approaches from the west Friday afternoon. Wind speeds will generally be around 10 kt or less thru Thu night. A cold front approaches from the west on Friday, dropping south across the area in backdoor fashion as it weakens Friday evening/early Saturday. Winds should briefly increase with tightening gradient on Friday afternoon, but appear as if they will remain below SCA thresholds. Bumped up winds slightly, mainly SSW ~15 kt Friday north, 10-15 kt south. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...MPR MARINE...BMD/MAM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.