Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KAKQ 131152
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
652 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2017
A cold front drops through the area this morning as high
pressure builds over New England. The cold front settles over
the Southeast through the weekend as high pressure slides off
the Northeast coast. A warm front lifts through the region
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Latest GOES water vapor imagery depicts a strong upper low
tracking across southeast Canada this morning. The associated
cold front is stretching across the northern Mid-Atlantic region
into the southern Appalachians. Strong ~1040mb surface high
pressure is currently build southward into the Upper Midwest in
wake of the strong upper low. A warm and relatively moist air
mass remains over the region ahead of the front, with
temperatures still in the mid to upper 50`s to around 60. A
southwest wind of 5-10 mph and mid to high level clouds have
inhibited fog development this morning.
The cold front drops into the northern portions of the forecast
area early this morning, reaching central Virginia around
daybreak, and pushing south of the forecast area by late
morning/early afternoon. Meanwhile, the surface high strengthens
to 1045+mb and builds into the western Great Lakes. The
strongest cold air advection will lag behind the upper front,
with a sharp decline in low level thicknesses expected during
the afternoon. Highs will be reached mid to late morning,
warming a few degrees into the mid to upper 50`s to low 60`s
southwest. Temperatures then expected to fall through the
afternoon, dropping into the 40`s across the entire forecast
area by late afternoon. North to northeast winds could gust to
around 20 mph near the coast. Have increased cloud cover to
cloudy as BUFR soundings and model guidance indicate high
relative humidity in the low levels. Based on the lack of
forcing and westerly flow aloft, have kept POPs silent.
High pressure continues to build into the region from the north-
northeast tonight. Temperatures steadily fall overnight with
lows eventually ranging from the low 30`s north to the mid to
upper 30`s south. 13/00Z guidance continues to indicate some
light overrunning precipitation, with GFS/NAM 295K surfaces
spreading the overrunning moisture across the northwest half of
the local area toward the Maryland Eastern Shore late tonight.
Enough low level cold air arrives late (mainly below 900mb) to
bring a chance of rain/freezing rain/sleet across the northern
forecast area. 850Mb temps expected to stay between +3 to +5C.
Best chances for light freezing rain expected from the Northern
Neck to the Maryland Eastern Shore late tonight. However,
confidence is not high due to borderline temperatures and
onshore flow. Little, if any ice accumulation is expected.
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure slides off the Northeast coast Saturday as the
frontal boundary stalls over the Southeast. The result will be
ongoing northeast flow and wedge conditions. A wintry mix is
expected to be ongoing across the northern portions of the
forecast area Saturday morning, with freezing rain still
possible from the Northern Neck to the Maryland Eastern Shore.
GFS/GEFS keeps the coldest air north of the region, but the more
reliable NAM/SREF guidance (in wedge setups) drops some minor
ice accumulations across that area. Forecasting only a light
glaze with accumulations less than 5 hundredths of an inch. Some
ice may build up on elevated surfaces or sidewalks. BUFR
soundings and SREF probabilities push chances for sleet
southward toward Richmond Saturday morning, but still expect the
predominate precip type to be a cold rain. Have increased POPs
to likely across the north and northeast half of the local area
Saturday morning, tapering to low end chance across the
southwest. Increased POPs for the Maryland Eastern Shore to
categorical Saturday afternoon as a shortwave approaches from
the west. Temperatures and low level thicknesses warm through
the afternoon, with the p-type becoming all rain across the
forecast area. Overall, forcing and moisture will be limited,
resulting in only light QPF amounts (a tenth to a quarter of an
inch north to a few hundredths south). Continue to undercut
guidance due to cloud cover and northeast winds. Highs in the
mid 30`s north to low 40`s south. Low pressure develops offshore
the Mid-Atlantic coast Saturday night as shortwave energy digs
over the Delmarva. Will linger POPs along the coast Saturday
night as the moisture plume begins to push offshore and
southward. Lows in the low 30`s north to upper 30`s south.
Latest guidance has backed off on precip chances Sunday as the
plume of moisture pushes south of the region. BUFR soundings
indicate drying in the mid levels, but low level moisture will
keep cloudy conditions in place through the day. A few breaks in
the clouds expected across the northeast late Sunday. Will keep
mention of slight chance to low end chance POPs for the
Piedmont, but silent elsewhere. Highs in the low 40`s north to
around 50 south.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Frontal boundary remains south of the fa Sun night before
lifting north as a warm front Mon. Will continue to carry low
end pops for light rain/drizzle in cool wedged airmass Sunday
night into Monday morning. Could see some light freezing
rain/drizzle across the lower Maryland eastern shore early
Monday morning as temps drop to near 32. Otw, just liquid
expected as reading stay above freezing but remain in the 30s.
Highs Mon from the mid 40s N to lwr 50s S.
The warm front lifts north of the region Mon night as strong low
pressure tracks from the midwest (where an ice storm is
expected) NE into the upr Gt Lakes region by mid week. This slow
movement keeps AKQ fa in warm sector for most of next week
thanks to high pressure off the sern coast. Models differ on
timing of the trailing cold front across the area (GFS faster)
but are coming together for a rather strong fropa with a
possible triple point low tracking just north of the area late
Thurs/Thurs night. Pcpn becomes more scattered and showery in
nature due to being in the warm sector. Kept thunder out of
forecast with the late week fropa for now.
Highs Tues lwr 50s ern shore to lwr 60s SW. Lows Tue night in
the 40s. Highs Wed from the mid 50s to lwr 60s south. Lows Wed
night mid 40s to mid 50s. Highs Thurs mid 50s to mid 60s.
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --VFR conditions prevail across the region this morning as a cold
front approaches from the north. Mid to high clouds have
increased ahead of the front, but MVFR conditions indicated in
the guidance has yet to materialize. South to southwest winds
are generally at or below 10 knots this morning. The front drops
across the region this morning, pushing south of KECG by early
afternoon, backing the winds to the north to northeast. A few
gusts to 20 knots possible near the coast this afternoon. Still
forecasting a period of MVFR ceilings along the front this
morning, lingering at KECG into early afternoon. Thereafter, VFR
There is a higher potential for more significant flight
restrictions on Sat, with some mixed precipitation possible by
Sat morning over the N and mainly a chance for rain elsewhere.
MVFR/IFR flight restrictions likely to persist into at least
Sunday (and perhaps into Mon) as a frontal boundary lingers
across the Carolinas and a NE low level flow prevails. Still a
lot of clouds and unsettled Mon night/tue but should see a
gradual improvement as flow shifts more to the S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
SCAs for ocean/Ches Bay/sound and Lower James River
today...ending various times tonight/Sat morning. SW-W winds to
start today...swinging to NNE after backdoor cold front drops
S across the waters (through this morning). Speeds to pick up to
15 to 25 kt over the waters after the wind shift (to the N). Sfc
hi pres builds into New England for the weekend...keeping
persistent NNE winds...though speeds expected to be a
few/several KT lower. There is potential for a another (short)
period of increased speeds w/ a secondary push of low level CAA
Latest storm surge guidance continues to indicate below normal
tides into Fri afernoon. ahead of the cold front. Tidal
locations along the Atlantic coast...lower Ches Bay/James River
can expect departures of -0.5 to -1.5 MLLW.
Record max temperatures were set at SBY and ECG today.
* Salisbury, MD: 67Previous: 65 (1913)
* Elizabeth City, NC: 72 Previous: 70 (2005)
-- Changed Discussion --KORF ASOS suffered a communication failure overnight. Return to
service time is unknown.
-- End Changed Discussion --
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Saturday for ANZ634-654-
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for ANZ632.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ633-650-
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ630-
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ638.