Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 251751 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 151 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS ~1018 MB HI PRES CENTERED NR THE WV/VA BORDER, WITH A WAVY QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH BACK INTO THE LOWER TN VLY. ALOFT...A BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL CONUS IS ALLOWING FOR NW FLOW OVER THE MID ATLC. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO GOING FORECAST W/A DRY/WARM AFTN ON THE WAY, AS SFC HI PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPR 80S TO NR 90 UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA TNGT, WHICH WILL HELP TO INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND WINDS AOB 5 KT WILL RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...ALLOWING EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SFC HI PRES SLIDES OFFSHORE SUN INTO MON AS A WEAK FRNT SLOWLY APPROACHES FM THE NW. PRESSURE FALLS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL RESULT IN WEAK LEE/THERMAL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION SUN. MODEST MOISTURE RETURN IN LOW LEVEL S-SE FLOW WILL PUSH PWATS TO AROUND 1.5-1.75 INCHES SUN AFTERNOON WITH 1000-500MB RH VALUES PROGGED AOB 60 PCT. WEAK IMPULSE DROPPING OVER THE LOCAL AREA SUN AFTERNOON IN CONCERT WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE (SFC TROUGH) WILL PROVIDE SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT. HOWEVER...LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL WARRANT LITTLE MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ATTM SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NWLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS MON AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. SFC/INVERTED TROUGH LOCATES OVER THE CAROLINAS INTO SW VA MON AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL ENERGY PROGGED TO DROP OVER THE REGION MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. HAVE MAINTAINED NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS WITH THIS SYSTM. A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND MODERATING THICKNESSES AND H85 TEMPS WILL RESULT IN SIMILAR DAYTIME TEMPS MON COMPARED TO THE WEEKEND...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY BUILDING OF HEIGHTS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE, SFC RIDGING WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION, WITH A WAVY REMNANT SFC BOUNDARY REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. AS A RESULT, EXPECT TEMPS TO GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM NEAR CLIMO ON TUE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINFALL CHANCES ARE A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH WARMING HEIGHTS ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, MID TO LATE AFTN INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD AT LEAST TYPICAL ISO TO SCT CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP A BIT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WEAKENS AND A STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM TRAVERSES NORTH OF THE AREA IN NNW FLOW ALOFT. KEPT POP CLOSE TO CLIMO (30-40%) DURING THIS TIME FRAME UNTIL BETTER HANDLE ON FEATURES TO OUR NNW CAN BE ASCERTAINED. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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LGT WINDS AND A MAINLY SKC WILL BE INDICATED FOR THE 18Z TAF PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. LOW DEW POINTS AND A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL INHIBIT FOG FORMATION SUNDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY AFFECT THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AT TIMES DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. SLGT TO LOW CHANCES FOR TSTMS EXIST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
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&& .MARINE... WK SFC HI PRES SLIDES ACRS THE WATERS THROUGH TDA. LGT/VRB WNDS TO ESE WNDS TDA...W/ SPEEDS BLO 15 KT. CONTD LGT WNDS TNGT THROUGH SUN W/ SFC HI PRES JUST OFF THE CST. SLY WNDS PTNTTLY INCRS TO LO END SCA SUN NGT...THEN DCRS AGN ON MON. WAVES OVER THE BAY THRU THE PERIOD WILL AVG 1-2 FT...W/ PRIMARLY 2-3 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM SHORT TERM...MAS/SAM LONG TERM...MAM AVIATION...LSA MARINE...ALB

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