Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 211118 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 718 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the Mid Atlantic region late this afternoon into tonight. High pressure builds in from the northwest Monday and remains over the area for much of the upcoming week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Current wv imagery and upper air analysis indicates a trough digging through the Great Lakes, with an upper ridge off the East Coast. A cold front associated with the trough extends back through the Ohio Valley. Locally, conditions are mostly clear across ern portions, with partly to mostly cloudy conditions over the Piedmont, with a few isolates showers across the far nw Piedmont counties. Temperatures are generally in the low/mid 70s, with some upper 60s over the interior Lower MD Ern Shore. The cold front will approach from the nw this aftn as the upper trough continues to sharpen across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Partly sunny and mainly dry through mid-morning, with only a 20-30% PoP across the nrn tier counties. PoPs increase to 40-70% for mid- late aftn, highest from interior VA to the MD Ern Shore. A few stronger tstms are possible, but overall the threat of hazardous weather is low. Not expecting much QPF area-wide (aob 0.25in). However, localized higher amounts are expected. Otherwise, partly sunny to mostly cloudy with highs Sunday in the upper 80s to low 90s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... The cold front will push off the coast Sunday night, with any lingering showers/tstms (mainly e of I-95) pushing offshore later in the evening through the early overnight hours. Surface high pressure builds into the region late Sunday night into Monday bringing drier and much more comfortable weather. Lows Sunday night range from the mid 60s nw to the low/mid 70s se. 850mb temperatures drop to ~14C Monday. This should support highs in the mid 80s with a drier well mixed airmass. Mostly sunny with few-sct aftn cu. Surface high pressure settles over the area Monday night through Tuesday providing continued dry and pleasant weather. The wind will become ne Tuesday, which will result in highs ranging from the upper 70s/around 80 at the immediate coast, to the low/mid 80s inland. This will be after morning lows in the upper 50s/low 60s with mid 60s for sern coastal locations. Mostly sunny with some aftn cu. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... One of the coolest mornings in a couple of months is forecast Wednesday morning (similar to Tuesday morning) as lows dip into the upper 50`s in rural locations. Lower 60`s expected urban areas and mid 60`s near the coast. Surface high pressure pushes off the northeast coast Wednesday with onshore flow resulting in a slight modification of temperatures. Highs generally in the mid 80`s, with upper 70`s to low 80`s near the coast. Lows Wednesday night in the low to mid 60`s. Surface ridge axis locates along the coast Thursday as surface winds become south to southeast. Further modification of dewpoints and temperatures expected, but dry conditions prevail. Daytime temps warm into the upper 80`s across the area (cooler again nearest the coast). Medium range guidance is less amplified than 24 hours ago with a northern stream trough digging into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. The result is a slower and weaker cold front for late in the week. Have silent POPs for Friday now with the slower frontal timing, with highs warming into the upper 80`s to low 90`s thanks to southerly winds. The front progged to now drop into the area Friday night, but with upper level high pressure over the Southeast states, it will be difficult for the front to push through the area. Guidance also indicates limited moisture along the front, so will keep POPs silent Friday night and Saturday as well. Warm again Saturday with highs in the upper 80`s to low 90`s. && .AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure is situated off the coast early this morning with a cold front pushing through the Ohio Valley. The cold front will approach from the nw today, with an increasing chc of showers/tstms this afternoon and early evening, primarily beginning after 18z. A much drier airmass arrives behind the cold front Monday and continues through Thursday as high pressure builds over the region. && .MARINE... Weak frontal boundary remains over the region early this morning. Winds are generally south to southeast at or below 10 knots. Waves 1- 2 feet and seas 2 feet. A cold front currently over the Ohio Valley drops into the area this afternoon, and crosses the waters this evening. Southerly winds increase to 10-15 knots ahead of the front this afternoon, with seas increasing to 2-3 feet. A northwest surge is expected over the waters tonight as low level cold air advection combines with low level winds of 25 to 30 knots and warm waters. Speeds increase to 15 to 25 knots, with several hours late tonight of solid 20 knots winds over the Bay. Waves build to 3-4 feet late tonight along with seas of 3-5 feet, highest 20 nautical miles out. SCA headlines were raise late last night for all waters, including several hours of SCA conditions in the eastern Virginia rivers. High pressure nudges in from the west Monday morning as cold air advection wanes and gradient winds relax. Expect SCA conditions to subside by late Monday morning or early Monday afternoon with northernly winds subsiding to 10-15 knots. The surface high builds north of the waters Monday night and Tuesday, as flow becomes northeast at 10-15 knots. Onshore, sub-SCA flow persists through Thursday as high pressure slides off the Northeast coast. The next front approaches the region Friday, but stalls over or north of the waters early next weekend. && .EQUIPMENT... Due to an azimuth motor failure, the KAKQ 88D will be out of service through the weekend. The replacement part will arrive on Monday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon EDT Monday for ANZ630>632-634>638. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Monday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to noon EDT Monday for ANZ650- 652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...SAM EQUIPMENT...AKQ

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