Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 251900 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 300 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT SFC COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA, AND IS ORIENTED FROM NE TO SW FROM THE UPPER EASTERN SHORE/SE PA INTO CENTRAL NC AND UPSTATE SC AT 10Z. ALOFT...AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPR LEVEL LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO SE ONTARIO, WITH NUMEROUS WEAK PERTURBATIONS NOTED ON EARLY MORNING GOES WV IMAGERY ROTATING AROUND IT. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN OUR SW PIEDMONT COUNTIES (I-85 CORRIDOR) AND IN THE HAMPTON ROADS/TIDEWATER AREA. HAVE MAINTAINED ISO SHOWER WORDING (20% POP) THIS MORNING FOR ALL BUT FAR NW CORNER OF THE CWA, SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST TO THE COAST AS THE FRONT BECOME STALLED ALONG THE COAST BY MIDDAY. THE STALLED BOUNDARY IN TANDEM WITH WEAK UPPER SUPPORT ALOFT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE FAR SE TIER OF THE CWA. HAVE MAINTAINED A 20-40% POP ALONG NE NC COAST INTO FAR SE VA FOR THE AFTN, BUT REMOVED POPS INLAND OVER THE NW THIRD OF THE AREA...AS MARKEDLY DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN...DROPPING PW AOB 1" IN THIS AREA BY THE AFTN. FORECAST HIGH TEMPS TODAY CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE GOING FORECAST, WITH MOS GUIDANCE AND LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS BOTH YIELDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHOWERS IN THE EAST QUICKLY DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PIEDMONT. HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW POP FOR SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT IN THE SE. OTHERWISE A COOL, COMFORTABLE EVENING FOR MOST WITH LOWS 60-65 INLAND, 65-70 SOUTHEAST CST. FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE TO FAVOR DECREASING POPS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WED AND THU, AS THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH FINALLY EJECTS NE, WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEAKENING FRONT/SFC TROUGH SLOWLY SLIDING OFFSHORE. SLIGHT CHC (20% POPS) CONTINUE OVER FAR SE AREAS WED AFTN, DECREASING TO BELOW 20% (SILENT POPS) OVERNIGHT WED AND THU. MEANWHILE...STRONG 1020+MB SFC HI PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ON WED, AND PARTLY CLOUDY IN LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ON THU WITH TEMPS NR NORMAL. HIGHS AVG OUT IN THE MID 80S, WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE 60S. NORTHERN SYSTEM OPENS UP AND EJECTS NE INTO ATLANTIC CANADA...AND SOUTHERN TROUGH RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY BACK WEST INTO THE WEST- CENTRAL GULF. IN BETWEEN, MID TO UPPER FLOW BECOMES W-SW OVER THE LOCAL AREA. MEANWHILE, COOL/DRY SFC HIGH SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC BY 12Z/FRIDAY...AND OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DRY/PLEASANT WX WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. HIGHS FRIDAY MAINLY 80-85 (UPR 70S ALONG THE COAST) UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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RESIDUAL TROUGH ALOFT WILL LINGER GENERALLY FM THE OH VLY TO THE GULF CST STATES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FCST PD...WHILE HI PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED NR/E OF THE MDATLC RGN. LONG FETCH FM THE ESE THROUGH THE SW ATLC SAT INTO SUN XPCD TO BRING SOME INCRS IN MOISTURE TO THE SE STATES...AND EVENTUALLY FARTHER N INTO THE MDATLC STATES (BY SUN).WILL BRING HIGHER POPS (25-40%) INTO THE FA...THEN WILL CONT W/ LINGER MNLY MNLY DIURNAL POPS ACRS THE FA MON AND TUE. TEMPS AVGG OUT A COUPLE/FEW DEGS F ABV NORMAL THROUGH THE PD. HI TEMPS IN THE 80S. LO TEMPS AT NGT IN THE 60S TO ARND 70F.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CONDS ACROSS THE CWA AS THE SFC COLD FRONT CONTS TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE SE VA COAST. HOWEVER SOME HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NE NC AND SE VA AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPED ON THE FRONTL BNDRY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT ORF DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING AND COULD PSBLY MOVE INTO THE PHF AREA. HAVE PUT TEMPO TSRA IN ECG...AND VCTS/VCSH IN THE ORF/PHF TAFS. THERE IS A GOOD CHC THIS ACTIVITY MIGHT LINGER INTO LATE TONIGHT AS SEVERAL WAVES DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOW MOVG FRONT. EXPECT CIGS AND VIS TO DROP INTO MVFR/IFR CONDS WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS OR TSTMS. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD/ALONG THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS AOB 10-15KT. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING WITH FRONT IN THE VCNTY...LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND. THIS WILL LIKELY AFFECT ORF/ECG AND PHF. THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVES SE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA THE REST OF WEDNESDAY...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER FAR SE VA AND NE NC. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SETTLING OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. && .MARINE...
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FNTL BNDRY HAS SETTLED NR THE SRN CSTL WTRS THIS AFTN...WILL BE GENERALLY STATIONARY/DIFFUSE INTO WED MRNG. ANOTHER PUSH/BNDRY FM THE NNW XPCD TO FINALLY CLR THE CSTL WTRS WED AFTN...STOPPING INVOF CSTL NC FOR THU. SFC HI PRES BUILDS FM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE CONUS BY LT WEEK. CONDS TO RMN SUB-SCA UFN W/ WNDS VRB AOB 15 KT THROUGH WED MRNG...THEN NNE THEREAFTER INTO THU. THU INTO THE WKND...WNDS BECOME ONSHORE...RMNG AOB 15 KT ON AVG. SOME BUILDUP OF SEAS PSBL...ESP ON THE SRN OCN WTRS FRI INTO THE WKND DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE WNDS. OTRW...WAVES 1-2FT/SEAS 2-3FT.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...BMD/JEF MARINE...ALB

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