Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 201442 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1042 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY...THEN OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE FA TODAY ON NNW WNDS (THAT ARE GUSTY AT TIMES...ESP AT THE CST INTO THIS AFTN). COLD FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY...AS CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL TO THE NW. EXPECTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AND MORE COMFORTABLE CONDS...WITH HIGH TEMPS FROM THE MID 70S N AND NEAR THE COAST...TO THE UPR 70S/LOW 80S FROM CENTRAL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... RMNG DRY/COMFORTABLE THIS EVE. ZONAL FLO ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A QUICK RETURN OF MOISTURE FM THE W AFT MDNGT TNGT. WK SFC LO PRES DEVELOPS OVR THE CAROLINAS (ALG THE STALL FRONTAL BNDRY) AS S/W IN ZONAL FLO TRACKS E FM THE MS/TN VLYS. CLDNS ASSOCIATED W/ THIS SYS WILL INCREASE OVRNGT TNGT...W/ RA BECOMING LIKELY OVR MOST OF THE FA ON THU...ESP FM LT MRNG THROUGH THE AFTN AS THE SFC LO LOW REACHES CSTL NC. LO TEMPS TNGT IN THE M50S TO ARND 60F. MUCH COOLER THU W/ HI TEMPS FM THE M60S N TO L/M70S SE. SFC LO PRES MOVES OFFSHORE THU NGT RESULTING IN SLOW DECREASE IN CLDS/POPS. LO TEMPS FM THE U40S NW TO THE U50S SE. SFC HI PRES TO THE WNW PREVAILS AGN ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS. HI TEMPS IN THE M/U70S. A SECONDARY CDFNT APPROACHES FM THE N LT FRI...AND HAVE ADDED 20-30% POPS LT IN THE DAY TO AREAS FM THE NRN NECK IN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN GRADUALLY BUILDING SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...AND SLIDING OFF THE MID ATLC AND CAROLINA COAST ON SUN. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH FAIRLY COOL TEMPERATURES ON SAT...PARTICULARLY AT THE COAST ON AS THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE...1030 MB+ AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES IN THE AFTN AS A PIECE OF THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE. EVEN WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HIGHS SAT WILL ONLY BE IN THE LWR-MID 70S INLAND TO THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S AT THE COAST. LOWS WILL GENLY RANGE THROUGH THE 50S BOTH SAT AND SUN MORNING (A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE SAT MORNING OVER NW ZONES). FLOW TURNS AROUND TO THE SSW SUN/MON AS SFC HIGH PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION. SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...AND MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN REAL CONSISTENT WITH THEIR OWN RUNS. OVERALL TREND IS FOR SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND NRN MID ATLC REGION LATE SUN AFTN/SUN NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOT REALLY ESTABLISHED YET SO HAVE INTRODUCED A 20% POP ACRS THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS RISE INTO THE LWR 80S INLAND AND IN THE 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. ON MON/TUE...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE AFTN/EVENING 20-30% POP OVER MAINLY THE NRN AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SUMMERLIKE WX RETURNS WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO 85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S TUE. CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ISLTD SHOWERS ASSOC WITH THE COLD FRONT WERE MOVNG TWD THE VA NRN NECK AND MIDDLE PENINSULA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HR OR SO. OTHERWISE...THE FRONT WILL USHER DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION THIS MORNG...AS HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE NNW. WINDS WILL SHIFT FM S-SW TO NW-N BEHIND THE FRONT. ALONG THE CST...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT AND DURING TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SKC IS EXPECTED TODAY. LO PRES TRACKS S OF THE REGION THU...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...WITH A TSTM POSSIBLE OVER FAR SE VA/NE NC. HI PRES RETURNS TO THE REGION FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. && .MARINE... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OUT TO SEA THIS MORNG...WITH WINDS BECOMING N-NW POST-FRONTAL. NOT A REAL STRONG COLD FRONT...BUT DOES APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT COOL AIR SURGE TO LEAD TO LOW END SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE CHES BAY/SOUND/LWR JAMES RIVER. SO...WILL HAVE SCA`S FOR THESE ZNS UNTIL 10 AM OR 1 PM TODAY. AT THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS BELOW SCA FOR THE OCEAN...ALTHO A FEW HRS WORTH OF OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE (BUT EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET). SFC HI PRES BLDS INTO THE REGION FM THE W TNGT...WITH A WEAK LO PRES SYSTEM PASSING BY TO THE S ON THU. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR NOW...MODELS KEEP WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT...10-15 KT AT MOST ALTHO THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE...AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY ON FRI (CLOSE TO SCA CONDS IN THE BAY FOR A FEW HRS). COOL HI PRES BUILDING OVER THE REGION INTO SAT MORNING SHOULD ONCE AGAIN INCREASE THE WINDS ATTM TO JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THE HI SHIFTS OFF THE CST SUN...AND FLOW TURNS BACK TO THE S/SE AT 10-15 KT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630>634-638.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...TMG MARINE...LKB/TMG

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