Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 082003 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 403 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY AND LINGERS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING BACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SUBTROPICAL WRN ATLANTIC. DEEP LAYERED SW FLOW EXISTS BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WITH A BELT OF DRIER AIR EXTENDING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S WITHIN THE ZONE OF DRY AIR. THIS HAS LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...WITH SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATING ML CAPE VALUES AOB 1000 J/KG OVER THE PIEDMONT. RATHER INTENSE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS IT REACHES THE LOCAL AREA DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND WEAKER DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. A 20-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR FAR N/NW PORTIONS THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY DECAYING SHOWERS/TSTMS DRIFTING INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE...A MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS AND SLUMPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WNW WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INTERACT WITH THE HOT AND MODERATELY HUMID AIRMASS OVER THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN BRINGING A 30-40% CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL BE BASED ON MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20-30KT SUPPORTING STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW/MID 90S...AND ONCE AGAIN HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP HEAT INDICES AOB 100. THE BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY...WITH A 30-40% CHC OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUING. HIGHS SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. MODELS SUGGEST SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY COULD LIFT ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT IN VICINITY OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N LATER FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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FRNTL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ESE OFF THE CST FRI NGT THRU SAT...AS WEAK HI PRES BLDS OVR THE NE U.S. AND DRIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST. SO...WILL ONLY HAVE SLGT CHC POPS AT MOST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. HOT AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL THEN DOMINATE THE AREA SUN AND MON...BEFORE AN ACTUAL COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU THE REGION TUE INTO TUE NGT. WILL HAVE CHC POPS FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENG SHOWERS AND TSTMS SUN AND MON...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAT/INSTABILITY AND WEAK TROFS/BOUNDARIES THAT MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE ACRS THE AREA. COLD FRONT ON TUE WILL THEN LIKELY TRIGGER SCTD PCPN...ESPLY OVR ERN/SE CNTIES. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THRU THE PERIOD...WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 80S TO LWR 90S.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... GENERALLY DRY AND PLEASANT THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH FAIR WX CUMULUS DEVELOPING THIS AFTN ACROSS THE REGION. BREEZY S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING DUE TO AMPLE DAYTIME HEATING AND A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT PRESENT. REMNANTS FROM AN MCS WILL SPLIT INTO THE TN VALLEY AND ALSO INTO CNTRL NY BY THIS EVENING...WITH WEAK ENERGY PASSING NORTHWEST OF THE RICHMOND METRO AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM KFVX-KRIC-KSBY BTWN 08/2200Z AND 09/0600Z. FOR WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND STALLS OUT NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER ON THU/FRI. AFTN THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EACH AFTN WED-FRI...WITH OVERNIGHT CONVECTION PERSISTING INTO THU AND FRI NIGHTS. && .MARINE... WILL HOIST SCA`S FOR ENTIRE MARINE AREA TODAY GIVEN THE INCRG PRS GRDNT INVOF SFC TROF OVR PIEDMONT. CHALLENGING PART OF THIS FCST WILL BE THE STARTING TIME FOR THE SCA`S SINCE DIFFERENT AREAS WILL SEE THE WINDS INCREASE AT DIFFERENT TIMES. MODELS SHOW A "LULL" IN WINDS (AOB 15 KTS) THIS MORNING WITH ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS INCRSG TO BTWN 15-20 THIS AFTRN AND CONTG TONIGHT. THUS...WILL BEGIN SCA HEADLINES FOR THE RIVERS / BAY AND CURRITUCK SND WITH THIS PACKAGE. CSTL WTRS A BIT DIFFERENT SINCE THE SCA HERE WILL BE MAINLY FOR SEAS STARTING THIS AFTRN ACROSS MD CSTL WTRS THEN THIS EVENING FOR REST OF THE WTRS (GIVEN SW WIND...XCPT HIGHEST SEAS 5-6 FT OUT NR 20 NM WITH 2-4 FT SEAS NEARSHORE). XPCT OFFSHORE WINDS TO BE ARND 20 KTS ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KTS PSBL. SW WINDS / SEAS FALL BLO SCA LEVELS WED. TIMING OF THE APPRCHG COLD FRONT PROBLEMATIC AS MODELS UP DIFFERENT TIMES FOR THE WIND SHIFT. LEANED TOWARD A SREF SOLN AS IT SEEMS TO BE A COMPROMISE BTWN THE NAM/GFS WITH SAID FROPA WED NIGHT THEN STALLING INVOF THE NC/VA BORDER BY 12Z THU. WINDS SHIFT TO A NW-N DIRECTION NORTH OF THE BNDRY WHILE REMAINING SW INTO THURSDAY ACROSS NC CSTL WTRS. FRNT THEN SAGS SOUTH OF ALBEMARLE SND BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE THE MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK DUE TO THE S-SE SWELL ALONG WITH BUILDING NEAR SHORE WAVES. && .CLIMATE...
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RIC HAS REACHED 100 DEGREES AS OF 339 PM EDT JULY 8 2014. THE LAST TIME RIC REACHED 100 DEGREES WAS JULY 8 2012 WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 103...WHICH IS ALSO THE DAILY RECORD FOR THE DAY.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ635>638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ652-654. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAS NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAS LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...BMD MARINE...MPR CLIMATE...AKQ

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