Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 270854 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 454 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION TODAY AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON MONDAY AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WNW FLOW ALOFT IS STEERING A WANING MCS FROM SRN IN/WRN KY INTO SW VA EARLY THIS MORNING. REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE MCS AND EARLIER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/WV ON SATURDAY ARE INTERACTING WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE OVER NW VA...THUS MERGING WITH THE MCS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WORKING THEIR WAY INTO FAR WRN COUNTIES OF THE PIEDMONT AND WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A WARM FRONT IS NOW LOCATED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND A LEESIDE TROUGH IS DEEPENING. MEANWHILE...A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM CHICAGO THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE WILL SWING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND PUSH THE COLD FRONT TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. SHORTWAVE ENERGY LEFT OVER FROM THE MCS AND ALSO EJECTING FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LEESIDE TROUGH BY THIS AFTN AND ENHANCE SYNOPTIC LIFT. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS/TIME HEIGHTS/SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PLENTY OF ELEVATED LIFT. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW INCREASING WIND SPEEDS WITH HEIGHT WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IN THE MID LEVELS (SW SFC GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH IN THE AFTN DUE TO A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT). 0-6KM BULK SHEAR REMAINS STRONG (AROUND 40 KT...INCREASING TO 50-60 KT BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING). MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOW COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH A MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR PROFILE AND MORE LINEAR HODOGRAPHS...WHICH SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS THAT WILL BE RIGHT-MOVERS. OVERALL...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (MAINLY THIS AFTN/EVENING) THAT MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IF LEADING SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP TODAY...THEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE RULE OUT. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE WAKEFIELD AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WITH A MODERATE RISK FARTHER WEST OVER THE OH/KY/WV BORDER AREAS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO CNTRL VA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TODAY DUE TO THICK CIRRUS OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM MCS ACTIVITY. THIS WOULD ACT TO COOL TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES AND YET DECENT AFTN MIXING WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ANY CLOUD LIMITING FACTORS. STILL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S TODAY. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL BUMP HEAT INDEX VALUES TO 100-104 DEGREES (SUB-ADVISORY) ACROSS SE VA/NE NC WHERE MORE PEAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTN. FOR TONIGHT...PRECIP PLACEMENT AND ONGOING CONVECTION WILL DETERMINE EXACTLY HOW LOW TEMPS CAN GO BY MONDAY MORNING. AM EXPECTING A WARM MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S NW (UPPER 60S POSSIBLE FAR NW COUNTIES) TO UPPER 70S SE. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... THE STRONG COLD FRONT QUICKLY PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND RE-FIRE IN INTENSITY DUE TO THE ADDED LIFT. OVERALL... PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS UNTIL THE FRONT CAN PUSH WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS DIMINISHED ON MONDAY...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH AS A COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW-N. WINDS AND SUNSHINE WILL BE KEY PLAYERS IN HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY. CURRENT FORECAST RANGES FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO 90-95 SE. BNDRY PROGGED TO STALL INVOF GULF STREAM MON NIGHT AND TUE WHILE A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ALONG SERN CSTL AREAS MON EVENING. LOWS IN THE 60S...XCPT L70S SERN CSTL AREAS. DRY TUESDAY ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE 50S. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE L80S...U70S AT THE BEACHES. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S W TO MID 60S AT THE BEACHES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF DIGS OVR THE MID ATLC REGION TUE NGT INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE OH AND MS VALLEYS THU AFTN THRU SAT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OFF THE MID ATLC CST TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN DRIFTS BACK TWD THE CST FRI NGT THRU SAT. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN HAVE ADDED SLGT CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT AND SAT. A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL DOMINATE THE AREA TUE NGT THRU THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S WED AND THU MORNGS...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...AND RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT MORNG. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AREA OF CONVECTION SLIDING SE FM SW PA/NRN WV/NW VA TO CONT TRACKING ESE THROUGH EARLY MRNG HRS W/ SOME WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. PTNTL FOR PCPN AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...ESP KRIC-KSBY. A SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION FCST TO EXIT THE MTNS MID/LT MRNG...AND TRACK OVR THE RGN MIDDAY INTO THIS EVE (ALSO W/ PSBL BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/HVY RA). OTRW...SSW WINDS GUSTING TO 15 KT AND SCT-BKN CLDS XPCD TDA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W. THE FRONT IS XPCD TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY W/ LO PROB FOR PCPN AND GUSTY MNLY W WNDS (TO 20 KT). MNLY VFR CONDS MON NGT INTO WED. NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. && .MARINE... NO HEADLINES XPCD THRU MON. A CDFNT PUSHES APPROACHES THE MID ATLC REGION TDA...THEN MOVE ACRS THE WTRS AND OFF THE CST LATE TNGT THROUGH MON NGT. SSW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT THROUGH TNGT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG. WAVES/SEAS LIKELY TO RISE A FOOT OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO INCRSD SPDS AND DIRECTION CHG TO NNW (MON NGT INTO TUE). GENERALLY NNE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS EXPECTED FOR TUE THRU THU. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD NEAR TERM...BMD SHORT TERM...BMD/MPR LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...ALB MARINE...ALB

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