Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 010351 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1051 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WX ADSY ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES PER LATEST OBS WITH DEW PTS STILL IN THE TEENS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. STRONG (~1044 MB SFC HI PRES CENTERED OVER ERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING PROVIDING COLD/DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES CURRENTLY...THOUGH WITH A PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS PER LATEST SATELLITE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF A FEW MORE DEGREES...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS ON THE ERN SHORE...AND 20-25 ACRS MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA (LOCALLY WARMER 25-30 F IN NE NC AND FAR SE VA). BETWEEN 06-09Z...ZONAL FLO ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE FM THE OH/TN VLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED NORTH FROM SC AS H8 TO H9 WINDS VEER TO THE SSE. TEMPERATURES MAY RISE SLIGHTLY LATE AS CLDNS INCREASES/CIGS GRADUALLY LWR. SOME LGT PCPN WILL TRY TO SPREAD INTO FAR W AND SW PORTIONS OF FA (PIEDMONT W OF I 95) AFT 10Z/01. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST PTNTL MIXED P-TYPE (SN- IP TO START...THEN IP- FZRA)...W/ TEMPS IN THE M/U20S. HAVE RAISED A WINTER WX ADVSRY FOR FAR WRN PORTIONS OF FA...BEGINNING AT 09Z/01. SFC LO PRES EJECTS NE FROM OH VLY TO WRN NEW ENG SUN W/ ASSCTD WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. SFC HI PRES AND LO LVL COLD AIR WILL BE SLO TO RETREAT DURING THE DAY...SETTING UP PTNTL WINTER P-TYPE EVENT LINGERING INTO THE AFTN (ESP AWAY FM THE CST). MDL THERMAL PROFILES AND CLIMO SUGGEST THAT HIGHEST PROB FOR ICE ACCUMS OF 0.1" OR GREATER WILL BE W AND NW OF RIC...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM ABOUT SBY- AKQ- EMV LINE. E OF THAT LINE...XPCG MNLY RA AS TEMPS RISE SUFFICIENTLY ABV FREEZING...REACHING THE L/M40S RIGHT AT THE CST...UPR 30S NOT THAT FAR INLAND. TO THE W...WILL HANG ONTO TO THE WINTER WX ADVISORY UNTIL 21Z/01-00Z/02 FOR MNLY ICE ACCUMS UP TO TENTH OF AN INCH. HI TEMPS FAR WNW STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE L30S IN THE AFTN...L/M30S XPCD ACRS CNTRL TIER FM AVC/EMV TO INTERIOR LWR MD ERN SHORE. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... PCPN TAPERING OFF WELL INLAND TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE SUN NGT...WHILE WILL HAVE CHC TO LIKELY POPS CNTRL AND E. TEMPS HOLD NRLY STEADY FM THE 30S TO L40S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON MRNG...TO BE FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND DRYING WNW WNDS. HAVE HUNG ONTO TO SLGT CHC/LO CHC POPS NR THE CST MON MRNG HWVR. HI TEMPS FM THE M40S ON THE ERN SHORE AREAS U40S-M50S ELSW. SFC HI PRES SETTLES OVR THE FA MON NGT...THOUGH CLDNS WILL BE QUICKLY RETURNING AS FLO ALOFT BECOMES WSW. ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN (PRIMARILY RA...THOUGH BRIEF MIX PSBL ACRS FAR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF FA TUE MRNG) XPCD ON TUE. LO TEMPS MON NGT FM THE L20S N TO U20S S. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE L/M40S N AND W TO THE U40S/ARND 50F SE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH PUSHES A COLD FRONT TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. LIGHT SE WINDS BECOME SWLY AND BREEZY OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL PROMOTE WARM AIR ADVECTION...INCREASING DEWPOINTS...AND RISING TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM RISING INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S BEFORE RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE FRONT WED AFTN/EVENING. FAR SE AREAS MAY REACH 70 DEGREES...WHEREAS FAR NRN AREAS MAY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS. PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF ALL RAIN WED/WED EVENING. FAR NRN AREAS MAY SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT NIGHT WED NIGHT...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW BY THU MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THUS BRINGING A RETURN TO A COLDER AIRMASS AND LOW TEMPS NEAR FREEZING NORTH OF RICHMOND. THURSDAY MAY RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA AND ULTIMATELY RUN INTO REMNANT WARMER AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...THUS PRODUCING LIGHT SHOWERS. MODEL QPF SUPPORTS THIS CONTINUATION OF PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT. A DECENT JET STREAK AROUND 170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S ALONG ALBEMARLE SOUND...UPPER 30S MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE) WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS MAINLY RAIN ON THU WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX NORTH OF RICHMOND. AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS NW TO MID-UPPER 20S SE THU NIGHT...PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW. WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA...QPF AMOUNTS ARE RATHER BULLISH. IT IS TOO SOON TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS BUT SUSPECT THAT THEY WOULD BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI AND ALL PRECIP COMES TO AN END. COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE UPPER 30S (LOWER 30S NRN NECK AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). WLY FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS FRI NIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S FOR SAT. && .AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OF THE CWA WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE SE STATES WILL MOVE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND BRING PRECIP WITH IT. DUE TO THE COLD NE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND WARMING S-SW FLOW ALOFT...THERE WILL BE A CHC OF -FZRA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUN MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...ESPECIALLY W OF I95. A BRIEF WINTRY MIX MAY ALSO AFFECT SBY/PHF/ORF DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR CONDS BY MID MORNING FOR RIC...THEN MOVE EAST AS THE PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE REGION. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS AS CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER SUNDAY AFTN ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIP ENDS SUN NIGHT. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND DRY WEATHER RETURNING. && .MARINE... SEAS HAVE FINALLY DROPPED TO 3-4FT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO 2-3FT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LIGHT NE/ONSHORE WINDS AOB 10KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES TWD THE WATERS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW AND START TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT BUT STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT WAVES/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE TO E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S TO SW AND INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7FT AND WAVES BUILD TO 3-4FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. SCA CONDITIONS DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .CLIMATE... RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE VERY LIKELY. AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH: RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.3 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979. NORFOLK: 32.6 F (-9.9 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD TIE THE 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978. SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH: * RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB. * NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING): 3/1 ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH _______ __________________________________________ RIC11/1937 10 MARCH 4 2009 ORF18/1980 14 MARCH 14 1888 SBY 13/1980 1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911 ECG 16/1937 16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943 RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (TODAY): 2/28 _______ RIC 28/1934 ORF 30/1934 SBY 29/1934 ECG 33/1934 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ048-049-060>064-069. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ065>068-070>076-079-080-083. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB SHORT TERM...ALB LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...DAP MARINE...BMD CLIMATE...

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