Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 191944 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA 344 PM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds over the local area tonight into Monday. A cold front approaches from the northwest Monday night and settles into the area Tuesday. Low pressure tracks across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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A cool/chilly afternoon across the FA. Clearing taking place about on schedule as upper level low pres moves well ESE of HSE. Conditions will continue to clear out this evening...while NNW winds remain gusty. Winds wane overnight...lastly invof coast w/ mainly SKC. Lows in the u20s-l30s inland to the m-u30s right along the immediate coast in SE VA-NE NC.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Dry conditions prevail Mon as sfc hi pres over the FA in the morning...drifts SE through the afternoon. NW winds again on Mon...though speeds will be (quite a bit) lower (than today). Mainly sunny in the morning...then increasing clouds in the afternoon...esp NW as mid-level WAA strengthens. Milder Mon w/ with highs in the l-m50s along the coast to the l-m60s farther inland. A weakening cold front approaches from the NW Mon night w/ cloud cover continuing to spread across the region. A 20-40% PoPs for SHRAS is forecast...mainly central/nrn portions w/ largely minimal QPF. The (weakened) cold front drops SE throug the local area Tue w/ mostly cloudy/VRB clouds prevailing. Keeping SLGT chc PoPs Tue morning...then 20-30% PoPs across SW portions ahead of low pressure developing invof TN Valley. Lows Mon might mainly in the l-m40s. Highs Tue from the m-u50s over the ern Shore...to around 60F near the Ches Bay, and 65-70F farther inland across central/srn VA and interior NE NC. Sfc low pres tracks across NC Tue night through Wed morning as a secondary cold front arrives from the N. Will have 60-80% PoPs across the FA into early Wed...then gradually lowering from NW to SE by early afternoon. Drier/cooler air on gusty NNW winds expected to spread S across the FA midday through the afternoon. Lows Tue night ranging through the 40s. Highs Wed from the u40s-around 50F near the coast to the l-m50s inland. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Showers expected Tue night into Wed morning, as low pressure along the frontal boundary moves acrs the Carolinas and off the coast. A brief mix of RA/SN is possible across nrn portions of the area late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning as colder air pushes in from the NW. Dry wx and cool temps will follow for Wed aftn into Thu night, as high pressure builds SE fm the Great Lakes to off the nrn Mid Atlc coast. Increasingly warmer temps then expected Fri and Sat, but also a gradual increase in low level moisture and pcpn chcs. Highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s Wed, in the mid 40s to lower 50s Thu, in the upper 50s to lower 60s Fri, and in the 60s to near 70 Sat. Lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s Tue night, in the mid 20s to lower 30s Wed night, in the 30s Thu night, and in the mid 40s to near 50 Fri night. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A strong surface trough pivoted through the region this morning and produced rain and snow across the CWA. The trough is now pushing past the VA/NC border and the precipitation has moved into NC. Cloud ceilings continue to be mostly MVFR across the region with some areas of IFR. Ceilings are expected to improve to mostly VFR by 23Z with bases at 4000 ft or better. A gusty NW-NE wind will buffet the eastern portions of the CWA and affect most of the TAF sites with gusts to 20-30 kt possible. The gusts should diminish by 00Z. Conditions will be VFR overnight and Monday with mostly SKC as high pressure builds into the area. High pressure gradually slides offshore Monday. A weak cold front pushes through the area Monday night bringing a 20-30% chancc of showers, mainly from RIC- SBY. This boundary stalls across the region Tuesday, with low pressure tracking along the front Tuesday night with rain and degraded flight conditions likely. High pressure builds in from the north Wednesday and settles over the area Thursday. && .MARINE... Latest surface analysis centers ~1008mb low pressure offshore the Delmarva coast, with the attendant cold front pushing south of the local waters. Northeast winds have begun to increase over the northern waters early this morning, with gusts of 30-35 knots observed already in the northern coastal waters. Seas have also responded in the northern waters, building to 3-5 feet. Elsewhere 2- 3 feet. Waves 1-2 feet. North to northeast winds quickly increase early this morning as strong cold air advection in tandem with strong pressure rises overspread the waters. Speeds increase to 20- 30 knots with gusts of 35-40 knots. Seas quickly build to 6-9 feet by daybreak in the northern waters, with the southern waters reaching 6-11 feet by mid morning. High surf advisories have been extended northward to Virginia Beach. Waves build to 4-6 feet...with 7 footers expected in the mouth of the bay. Have kept the lower James River under SCA headlines, but cannot rule out a few gusts to around 35 knots centered a few hours around 10am. Waves in the lower James build to 3-5 feet...highest in the mouth of the river. Gale conditions persist through at least early afternoon, before diminishing through the afternoon. Have extended the Bay through mid afternoon, with Gale headlines dropping off late today in the southern coastal waters and sound. Winds become north, northwest late today as the low deepens offshore the Northeast coast and high pressure builds in from the west. SCA conditions persist over the waters (minus the rivers) through early Monday morning. Seas subside to 4-6 feet late tonight. High pressure builds southward across the waters Monday with northwest winds diminishing to 5-15 knots Monday afternoon. Seas finally subside below 5 feet Monday afternoon. High pressure settles off the Southeast coast Monday night with flow becoming southwesterly over the local waters at 5-15 knots. The next front drops slowly over the waters Tuesday. The front drops south of the waters Tuesday night as low pressure develops offshore. Expect a northerly surge late Tuesday night, with SCA conditions expected. High pressure builds over the waters for the end of the work week. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ102. VA...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ098. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ635>638. Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634- 650-652-654. Gale Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...AJZ/JEF MARINE...TMG

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