Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KAKQ 191944
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA
344 PM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017
High pressure builds over the local area tonight into Monday. A
cold front approaches from the northwest Monday night and
settles into the area Tuesday. Low pressure tracks across the
region Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --A cool/chilly afternoon across the FA. Clearing taking place
about on schedule as upper level low pres moves well ESE of
HSE. Conditions will continue to clear out this evening...while
NNW winds remain gusty. Winds wane overnight...lastly invof
coast w/ mainly SKC. Lows in the u20s-l30s inland to the m-u30s
right along the immediate coast in SE VA-NE NC.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry conditions prevail Mon as sfc hi pres over the FA in the
morning...drifts SE through the afternoon. NW winds again on
Mon...though speeds will be (quite a bit) lower (than today).
Mainly sunny in the morning...then increasing clouds in the
afternoon...esp NW as mid-level WAA strengthens. Milder Mon
w/ with highs in the l-m50s along the coast to the l-m60s
A weakening cold front approaches from the NW Mon night w/
cloud cover continuing to spread across the region. A 20-40%
PoPs for SHRAS is forecast...mainly central/nrn portions w/
largely minimal QPF. The (weakened) cold front drops SE throug
the local area Tue w/ mostly cloudy/VRB clouds prevailing.
Keeping SLGT chc PoPs Tue morning...then 20-30% PoPs across SW
portions ahead of low pressure developing invof TN Valley. Lows
Mon might mainly in the l-m40s. Highs Tue from the m-u50s over
the ern Shore...to around 60F near the Ches Bay, and 65-70F
farther inland across central/srn VA and interior NE NC.
Sfc low pres tracks across NC Tue night through Wed morning as a
secondary cold front arrives from the N. Will have 60-80% PoPs
across the FA into early Wed...then gradually lowering from NW
to SE by early afternoon. Drier/cooler air on gusty NNW winds
expected to spread S across the FA midday through the afternoon.
Lows Tue night ranging through the 40s. Highs Wed from the
u40s-around 50F near the coast to the l-m50s inland.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Showers expected Tue night into Wed morning, as low pressure
along the frontal boundary moves acrs the Carolinas and off the
coast. A brief mix of RA/SN is possible across nrn portions of
the area late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning as colder
air pushes in from the NW. Dry wx and cool temps will follow
for Wed aftn into Thu night, as high pressure builds SE fm the
Great Lakes to off the nrn Mid Atlc coast. Increasingly warmer
temps then expected Fri and Sat, but also a gradual increase in
low level moisture and pcpn chcs. Highs in the upper 40s to mid
50s Wed, in the mid 40s to lower 50s Thu, in the upper 50s to
lower 60s Fri, and in the 60s to near 70 Sat. Lows in the mid
30s to lower 40s Tue night, in the mid 20s to lower 30s Wed
night, in the 30s Thu night, and in the mid 40s to near 50 Fri
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A strong surface trough pivoted through the region this morning
and produced rain and snow across the CWA. The trough is now
pushing past the VA/NC border and the precipitation has moved
into NC. Cloud ceilings continue to be mostly MVFR across the
region with some areas of IFR. Ceilings are expected to improve
to mostly VFR by 23Z with bases at 4000 ft or better. A gusty
NW-NE wind will buffet the eastern portions of the CWA and
affect most of the TAF sites with gusts to 20-30 kt possible.
The gusts should diminish by 00Z. Conditions will be VFR
overnight and Monday with mostly SKC as high pressure builds
into the area.
High pressure gradually slides offshore Monday. A weak cold
front pushes through the area Monday night bringing a 20-30%
chancc of showers, mainly from RIC- SBY. This boundary stalls
across the region Tuesday, with low pressure tracking along the
front Tuesday night with rain and degraded flight conditions
likely. High pressure builds in from the north Wednesday and
settles over the area Thursday.
Latest surface analysis centers ~1008mb low pressure offshore the
Delmarva coast, with the attendant cold front pushing south of the
local waters. Northeast winds have begun to increase over the
northern waters early this morning, with gusts of 30-35 knots
observed already in the northern coastal waters. Seas have also
responded in the northern waters, building to 3-5 feet. Elsewhere 2-
3 feet. Waves 1-2 feet. North to northeast winds quickly increase
early this morning as strong cold air advection in tandem with
strong pressure rises overspread the waters. Speeds increase to 20-
30 knots with gusts of 35-40 knots. Seas quickly build to 6-9 feet
by daybreak in the northern waters, with the southern waters
reaching 6-11 feet by mid morning. High surf advisories have been
extended northward to Virginia Beach. Waves build to 4-6 feet...with
7 footers expected in the mouth of the bay. Have kept the lower
James River under SCA headlines, but cannot rule out a few gusts to
around 35 knots centered a few hours around 10am. Waves in the lower
James build to 3-5 feet...highest in the mouth of the river. Gale
conditions persist through at least early afternoon, before
diminishing through the afternoon. Have extended the Bay through mid
afternoon, with Gale headlines dropping off late today in the
southern coastal waters and sound. Winds become north, northwest
late today as the low deepens offshore the Northeast coast and high
pressure builds in from the west. SCA conditions persist over the
waters (minus the rivers) through early Monday morning. Seas subside
to 4-6 feet late tonight.
High pressure builds southward across the waters Monday with
northwest winds diminishing to 5-15 knots Monday afternoon. Seas
finally subside below 5 feet Monday afternoon. High pressure settles
off the Southeast coast Monday night with flow becoming
southwesterly over the local waters at 5-15 knots. The next front
drops slowly over the waters Tuesday. The front drops south of the
waters Tuesday night as low pressure develops offshore. Expect a
northerly surge late Tuesday night, with SCA conditions expected.
High pressure builds over the waters for the end of the work
NC...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ102.
VA...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ098.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for
Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634-
Gale Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633-656-658.