Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 201424 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1024 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A frontal boundary remains stalled near the coast through Wednesday. Meanwhile, low pressure will linger over the outer banks of North Carolina into tonight, then drifts southwest to along the southeast coast during Wednesday. High pressure slowly builds into the region late in the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Late this morning, a frontal boundary remains stalled near the coast...while remnant lo pres was spinning over the outer banks of NC. Deep layered tropical moisture feed will continue along the coast and affect ern and srn portions of the cwa this aftn into this evening. Widespread shras and isolated tstms are expected fm the VA Ern Shore SSW acrs the area. While, the cntrl VA piedmont N of RIC WSW to FVX area will have just isolated or sctd showers. Rainfall amounts of 1-4 inches are expected near the coast, esply in S Hampton Roads to coastal NE NC ,up to 1 inch possible to about the I 95 corridor in cntrl/s cntrl VA. Thus, a Flash Flood Watch will remain in effect for far SE VA and coastal NE NC (through this evening). Though there is some concern farther N along portions of the ern shore (where the last few runs of RAP13 guidance suggest enhanced rain potential-and some of that area received excessive rain on Mon). Otherwise, mostly cloudy to cloudy over the local area this aftn...highest PoPs (to 100%) in SE VA-NE NC...tapering to 15-30% well to the WNW away fm the coast. Highs will range fm the mid 70s to near 80.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Frontal boundary and lo pres sfc-aloft will remain along the coast from VA to the Carolinas through Wed...before breaking down slowly during the end of the week. A continuation of hi pcpn chances tonight-Wed...mainly over SE VA and NE NC...before slowly lowering heading into Thu. Additional moderate-heavy rainfall possible and later shifts may need to consider extending Flash Flood Watch if necessary. Continuing to remain mostly cloudy across all but far N and W areas in FA into Thu. Lows tonight/Wed night from the m60s NW to the l70s SE. Highs Wed/Thu in the u70s SE to the l80s NNW. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The mid-level circulation dampens and begins to retreat Thursday night into Friday as an upper ridge builds across the Ohio Valley and a trough digs over se Canada. This should result in gradually improving conditions. Sky cover should trend from mostly cloudy to partly cloudy, with 20-30% PoPs Thursday night trending to ~20% Friday. Lows Thursday night range from the upper 60s to around 70, with highs Friday in the low/mid 80s. The trough digs over the Northeast US Saturday into Sunday, which pushes a cold front swd through the Mid-Atlantic Saturday night into Sunday. Partly sunny and warm Saturday ahead of the front with highs in the low/mid 80s. 12z/19 data suggests temperatures will actually trend toward seasonal averages Sunday into Monday, which is highs in the mid/upper 70s and lows in the mid/upper 50s. There is only a slight chc PoP associated with the frontal passage as moisture is limited. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Stalled frontal boundary near the coast and a tropical moisture feed nwd will continue to produce widespread shras (isolated tstms and moderate/heavy ra) and periods of IFR/MVFR conditions through the day (highest prob at PHF/ORF/ECG). Otherwise...IFR- MVFR conditions will persist elsewhere...though shras will likely be more SCT. Forecast for the next several days has low level of confidence as upper level low and associated weak surface low remains stalled invof coastal NC/SE VA. Periods of showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible at least through Thursday with some IFR possible. High pressure is slow to build into the region from the N by later this week. && .MARINE... Update as of 7 AM...latest obs continue to show ENE winds 15-20kt with gusts to 25 kt across the lower Ches Bay and southern coastal waters with a slight uptick in seas as well (up to 4 ft now). With the hi-res guidance now showing little if any lull in the winds through the day have decided to go ahead and begin the SCA for the aforementioned areas. Previous discussion...The low associated with the remnants of Julia will linger in the vicinity of the NC coast through Wednesday morning and then gradually push farther inland by late Wednesday into Thursday. Winds thru much of today will generally remain ENE 10-15 kt but there may be periods of brief elevated winds to 20-25 kt in heavier showers. Due to the influence of Julia, the gradient then tightens late this afternoon and especially tonight/Wednesday with an E wind increasing to 15-20kt across the ocean/lower Bay/lower James. Seas build to 4-6 ft as early as this evening across the southern ocean waters and by Wed morning as far north as Chincoteague. Waves will reach 3-4ft in the lower Bay and up to 5 ft at the mouth. Have issued SCAs for these areas beginning late this afternoon into Wed. The gradient begins to weaken Wednesday night into Thursday, with the wind diminishing and seas gradually subsiding. The low finally dissipates by Friday, with a cold front approaching from the north on Saturday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Increasing onshore flow tonight into Wednesday has the potential to push tidal anomalies to around 1.0-1.5ft above normal across the lower Bay and lower James. This could push some locations near minor flooding thresholds during high tide Wednesday afternoon. Elsewhere, expect tidal departures to average 0.5-1.0ft above normal. A beach hazard statement will be in place today due to a high threat of rip currents across the southern beaches. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for NCZ015>017-031-032- 102. VA...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for VAZ095-097-098. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ632-634- 656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ652-654. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG SHORT TERM...ALB LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...ALB MARINE...JDM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ

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