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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200600
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
200 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains centered northwest of the area through the
end of the week. Tropical Cyclone Jose will continue to track
northeast to a position off the southern New England coast later
today, then meander there through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
At 11 PM...Jose has weakened to a tropical storm and is located
about 230 miles south of Nantucket, Mass, moving NE at 9 mph.
As it moves away, the outer bands of shwrs are pulling away
from the region with just a few light returns noted over the
eastern shore and Ches Bay. Will keep isltd pops across those
areas for a few more hrs then dry with a slow clearing trend.
Lows in the lwr 60s NW to around 70 at the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure over the region along with subsidence in the wake
of departing Jose results in a mostly sunny and unseasonably
warm day Wed. Latest data suggests enough moisture for sct
convection to develop over the mts after 18Z, but generally
dissipating as it tries to move east. Will carry slight chc
pops over the eastern Piedmont (~20%) in the afternoon as some
hi-res guidance indicates potential for an isold shwr/tstm. H85
temps btwn 15-16C along with ample sunshine results in highs
reaching the mid-upr 80s to around 90 west of the Bay, lwr 80s
along the immediate coast. Mstly clr and warm Wed night. Lows
65-70. Mostly sunny and warm Thurs and Friday as the high
dominates. Highs in the mid/upr 80s, except upr 70s to low 80s
beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Hi pres sfc-aloft builds over the ern Great Lakes and NE CONUS
from Fri night into early next week as remnant lo pres (Jose)
slowly circulates ESE of New England. Other than possible
periods of SC off the ocean (by the late in the weekend-early
next week) - esp at the coast...expecting dry /above normal
conditions.

Extended models have a little better at consensus wrt tropical
systems into early next week. Tropical cyclone Maria expected to
move to (well?) E of the SE CONUS coast by Sun-Mon. Monitor
forecasts from NHC on Maria through the weekend.

Highs Sat-Sun in the l80s at the coast...m-u80s elsewhere...then
in the u70s-m80s Mon-Tue. Lows in the l-m60s inland to the
u60s-around 70F at the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Tropical Storm Jose will continue to lift northward through the
night allowing for improving aviation conditions. MVFR ceilings
across the northeast (including SBY) will lift over the next
couple of hours, improving to VFR after 08Z. Mainly dry/VFR
conditions are expected for the remainder of the forecast
period. An isolated shower or thunderstorm may be possible over
far western portions of the region late Wednesday afternoon.
Winds will be out of the N/NW around 5 to 10 knots for much of
the forecast period.

Outlook: Generally VFR/dry conditions are anticipated through the
extended period as high pressure builds into the region.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
All Tropical Storm Warnings have been allowed to expire and
replaced with Small Craft Advisories as TS Jose continues to
lift north of the waters. Seas currently avg to 6-8 ft nearshore
and 9-12 ft out 20 nm. Waves over the Bay avg 2-4 ft except up
to 4-5 ft at the mouth of the Bay. Marine conditions then
improve later tonight into Wed as Jose pushes well off to the NE
and weak high pressure builds in from the NW. Sub- SCA
conditions prevail Wed into Thu (except for lingering 5 ft+ seas
on the coastal waters Wed). Seas are expected to start to once
again ramp up Fri into the weekend as swells from distant
Hurricane Maria begin to affect the region so additional SCA or
Small Craft advisory for hazardous seas will likely be needed
for the coastal waters.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal departures avg +1.75 to +2.25 ft over the lower Bay,
tapered to only about +0.5 to +1.0 feet in the upper Bay. Will
continue coastal flood advisories for all Bay/river zones
through the upcoming high tide cycle this evening/early Wed am.
Have coastal flood warnings in effect for the zones adjacent to
the Atlantic ocean as water has piled up into some of the inlets
and additional moderate flooding is expected through this
evening`s high tide, though some areas may fall a little shy of
moderate criteria as the departures are starting to fall over
the past 2 hrs. Also, added a coastal flood advisory for the Bay
side of the MD eastern shore from midnight through 6 am with
the expectation that tidal departures will slowly creep up with
as the strong northerly winds subside later tonight and water
remains piled up to some extent in the Bay as waves outside of
the mouth of the Bay remain elevated on Wed. Additional minor
flooding will be possible later wed/Wed night, but given the
uncertainty did not extend the headlines out through this period
yet.

High surf advisory also remains for all coastal areas into this
evening due to nearshore waves of 8-11 ft. High risk for rip
currents for all beaches adjacent to coastal waters now extended
through Wed as swell/nearshore waves will be slow to subside.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs for 9/20:
 RIC...95 in 2005
 ORF...97 in 1895
 SBY...90 in 1983
 ECG...93 in 1942

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT this
     afternoon for MDZ024-025.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     MDZ021>023.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to 11 AM EDT this morning for
     NCZ102.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     VAZ075-077-078-084>086-089-090-093.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for
     VAZ095>097-523>525.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to 11 AM EDT this morning for
     VAZ098.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT this
     afternoon for VAZ099-100.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ630>632.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/MPR
NEAR TERM...ESS/JDM/MPR
SHORT TERM...JDM/MPR
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...AJB/MAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...