Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 250752 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 352 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA BY THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1022 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVR THE NE STATES WITH A FRNTAL BNDRY OVR THE SE STATES. ALOFT...N FLOW CONTINUES WITH AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. DRY WX AND A MSTLY SUNNY SKY EXPECTED TDA WITH SFC HI PRES OVR THE MID ATLANTIC. OTWS...LO-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE NE WITH MIXING TO AROUND 850 MB AND TEMPS ABOUT FIVE TO 10 DEGREES BLO NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY SFC HI PRES LOCKED IN PLACE ALONG THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC CST...AND UPR-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE E HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH MSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES ON AVG. CURRENT NHC FORECAST KEEPS TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL PASSING WELL OFFSHORE WITH THE MAIN EFFECT ON THE LOCAL AREA BEING AN INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK. SLGTLY BLO TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS IN THE LO TO MID 80S ON TUE AND MID TO UPR 80S ON WED. LO TEMPS TNGT AND TUE NGT IN THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BREAKDOWN WED NIGHT AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM MIGRATES NNE WELL OFF THE U.S. SE COAST. A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO PLAGUE MID TO FAR RANGE FORECASTS IN REGARD TO A PASSING TROPICAL SYSTEM PASSING. CURRENT TRENDS KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OFF THE NC COAST BEFORE CONTINUING A NNE TRACK AND STAYING OUT TO SEA. AT THIS TIME...WILL HOLD ONTO A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS NE NC/FAR SE VA ON FRI. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION FRI. THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SAT AND RATHER FLAT NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A DIRTY UPPER RIDGE SETUP...THUS INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES GOING INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. AM NOT ANTICIPATING A COMPLETE WASHOUT AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN THE MID ATLNTC COAST. TSCTNS RTHR DRY BUT EXPECT SCT CU (3-5K FT) TODAY. GUSTY NE WINDS CONTINUE ALONG SERN TAF SITES WITH GUSTS BTWN 15-25 KTS AT ORF/ECG...SLOWLY DIMINISHING TOWARDS 00Z. OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE IS SLOW TO RETREAT. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES THE PERSISTANT NE PRS GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES SCA LEVEL WINDS (15-20 KTS) CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHES BAY ON SOUTH SO HAVE EXTENDED THE HEADLINES ACROSS THOSE AREAS. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS ACROSS THE LWR MOST PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER TODAY...BUT CAPPED THE WINDS THERE AT 15 KTS FOR NOW AS WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THERE THIS AFTRN. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH WINDS FALLING BLO 20 KTS ACROSS THE CURRITUCK SND AFTER MIDNIGHT. NE FETCH SUGGESTS 5 FOOT SEAS PSBL THRU TUESDAY ACROSS THE WATERS...SLOWLY SUBSIDING N-S BY TUES NIGHT. SEA FORECAST PROBLEMATIC LATER THIS WEEK DUE TO THE FUTURE MOVEMENTS OF TS CRISTOBAL. DESPITE PRODUCING A CONSTANT SWELL DUE TO ITS SLOW MOVEMENT...SYSTM NOT LOOKING VERY IMPRESSIVE ATTM WITH LATEST MODEL GUID KEEPING THE CENTER ARND 73 DEGREES WEST AS IT TRACKS N THEN NE TOWARDS 70 DEGREES WEST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINITY...KEPT SEAS AT 4 FT OUT 20 NM FOR NOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FUTURE SHIFTS TO ADJUST UP OR DOWN AS NEEDED. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU 7 AM FOR CHES BAY SIDE OF LWR MD ERN SHORE AS TIDE LEVELS APPRCH MINOR FLOODING LEVELS DUE TO TIDES 1 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL (NEW MOON PHASE). TIDES PROGGED TO COME WITHIN ONE HALF FOOT OF MINOR FLOODING LEVELS ACROSS NRN AREAS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. THESE TIDES ARE FORECASTED TO BE A BIT LOWER THAN THIS MORNINGS WERE...BUT BECAUSE OF MOON PHASE ANTHR ROUND OF STATEMENTS PSBL THIS AFTRN. HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THRU THIS EVENING FOR ALL AKQ BEACH AREAS. SEE WBCCFWAKQ FOR DETAILS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021>023. NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR VAZ077. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ632. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ633. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...MPR MARINE...MPR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MPR

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