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802
FXUS61 KAKQ 290545
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
145 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure off the Southeast coast will bring hot and humid
conditions into early next week, along with daily diurnal
thunderstorms chances. A cold front potentially arrives by
Tuesday bringing an increased chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 830 PM EDT Saturday...

- Storms diminish this evening allowing skies to clear tonight.

- Patchy fog is possible across the Eastern Shore this evening.

High pressure, surface and aloft is centered over the
western Atlantic and prevails across the southern Mid-Atlantic
region. A residual warm front lingers immediately N of the
local area across the northern Delmarva. Showers have begun to
diminish across the area with some scattered showers still
remaining across SE VA that will diminish in the next 1 to 2
hrs. Otherwise, mostly clear warm and muggy tonight with lows in
the lower to mid 70s inland, and in the mid to upper 70s toward
the coast. Patchy ground fog is possible later tonight and
toward sunrise Sunday, especially across the Eastern Shore.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Hot weather continues into early next week, with chances of
  afternoon thunderstorms Sunday and Monday.

Generally zonal flow aloft is expected Sunday into Monday with
the upper ridge centered offshore. Diurnal convection Sunday and
Monday should remain isolated to scattered despite high PW
values and good daytime heating. Temperatures are expected to be
above normal Sunday and Monday, with humid conditions
persisting. Forecast highs are in the lower to mid 90s. Heat
indices will range between 97-104F, however, some areas could
see a brief period of 105F+ heat indices, especially across SE
VA and NE NC. A heat advisory may be needed, but confidence was
not high enough to issue at this time. We will continue to
monitor any trends in temperatures and dewpoints and issue one
if deemed necessary. By Monday night, a cold front and upper
trough will be advancing towards our area from the west, and
should reach our local area by later Tuesday. This will pull
even higher PW values into the region and should provide for
more organized and higher coverage of convection by Tuesday
afternoon/evening. Continued hot and humid Tuesday with highs in
the lower to mid 90s. Heat indices potentially reach 105F
across far SE VA and coastal NE NC. Warm and humid Sunday night
and Monday night with lows in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Frontal passage Tuesday into early Wednesday, bringing some
  relief to the area.

Showers/tstms are likely to persist into Tuesday evening,
before diminishing in coverage overnight. The cold front may
stall near the NC/VA border Wednesday with upper troughing
lingering aloft, which would bring increased shower/tstm chances
to SE VA and NE NC Wednesday through potentially Thursday. The
front is on the weaker side in terms of airmass change, so
temperatures are only expected to drop a few degrees Wednesday
with highs in the upper 80s. The main source of relief will come
in the form of slightly lower dew points (especially across the
N), leading to lower heat indices. A secondary front is
forecast to move through Thursday morning, dropping dew points
into the upper 60s to lower 70s. An upper ridge will start to
build across the Northeast and Mid- Atlantic by late next week
after the frontal passage, so temperatures will quickly rebound
back into the 90s by Thursday/Friday. Luckily, the lower dew
points look to linger through at least the first part of the
weekend, and the heat index is forecast to *only* reach the 90s
Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 145 AM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at all terminals.
There is a chance for possible patchy fog at SBY early this morning,
but that should quickly dissipate after sunrise if it does develop.
Scattered convection is forecast for this afternoon and evening,
with the highest chances in the northern half of the local area.
Confidence was high enough to include PROB30 at both RIC and SBY
for -TSRA, but there was not enough confidence in the
development timing near the southern terminals to include
mention of storms at this time. Surface winds outside of any
convection will generally be light out of the SW through this
evening, with the exception of ORF where the wind direction this
afternoon will become more SE due to the influence of the sea
breeze.

VFR conditions are primarily expected through the middle of
next week. There is a chc of aftn/evening showers/tstms Monday,
with higher confidence/more coverage of showers/tstms Tuesday
ahead of a cold front. Chcs of aftn/evening showers/tstms
gradually push S with the cold front Wednesday/Thursday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
As of 255 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Generally benign marine conditions through Monday (outside of
convection), with SCA conditions possible Tuesday/early Wednesday in
association with a stronger cold front.

Current surface analysis shows the lingering weak front has moved
north of the local waters. High pressure dominates from the south
and southeast, allowing benign marine conditions to continue. Winds
are currently light SSE at 5-10 kt, becoming more southerly tonight
and increasing slightly to 10-15 kt. Gradually shifting, winds will
become SW by tomorrow morning, remaining sub-advisory at 5-10 kt in
the morning to 10-15 kt in the afternoon. There is a slight chc of
convection developing over the waters tomorrow. Waves are currently
1-2 ft, with seas 3-4 ft. In combination of NE swell and 7-8 sec
periods, waves and seas will remain slightly elevated at 3-4 ft
through tonight. Seas and waves Sunday and Monday will remain below
SCA criteria at 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft, respectively.

Winds increase Monday afternoon ahead of the next frontal boundary.
Remaining out of the SW, late afternoon into early Tuesday, winds
are expected to increase to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. A low
end SCA is seems to be likely at this time, but will continue to
monitor the trends. Behind the front, waves may remain slightly
elevated, but sub-SCA conditions will return likely by Wednesday.

A Moderate Rip Current Risk remains in place today over the northern
waters, with Low Rip Risk through the weekend over southern
waters.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/NB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/HET
SHORT TERM...AJZ/NB
LONG TERM...AJZ/NB
AVIATION...HET/NB
MARINE...KMC/LKB