Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 230021 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 721 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1031 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NOVIA SCOTIA...RIDGING SW INTO THE NRN MID ATLC REGION. WEDGE/CAD SETUP IS IN PLACE BUT TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE CWA RANGING FROM 34-35 ACRS THE NW PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER-MID 50S AT KECG. SFC TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. BEST LIFT AND OMEGA HAS SHIFTED TO THE ERN SHORE WITH MAINLY JUST DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS ACRS SW ZONES TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL ELSEWHERE EVEN THOUGH QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE ONLY SLIGHTLY FROM CURRENT VALUES...WITH LOWS 33-35 F OVER NW PIEDMONT...TO 45-50 F SE COASTAL AREAS. DEW PTS HAVE RISEN TODAY...AND WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND LATER TONIGHT AND TUE (AS COASTAL TROUGH WEAKENS)...THINK FOG WILL BECOME A CONCERN JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE (INCLUDING THE WATER). HAVE FOG IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST ALL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH MIDDAY (AT LEAST) ON TUE. AS FOR POPS LATER TONIGHT...GENLY EXPECTING ONLY MINIMAL ADDITIONAL QPF AS IR SATELLITE SHOWS AREA OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS/HEAVIER PRECIP ALONG THE COAST LIKELY TO STAY OFFSHORE. MODELS DO HINT AT SOME INCREASE IN POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT W/ NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT SO WILL CARRY HIGH CHC POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. FAVORED COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TUE...GIVEN A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND STRENGTHENING INVERSION. HIGHS GENLY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 50S WEST OF I-95 TO THE MID-UPPER 50S FAR SE ZONES. MOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR PRECIP OTHER THAN CONTINUED DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... TUE NIGHT/ WEDNESDAY...SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACRS THE REGION LATER TUE NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW FOR THE AREA TO BE WARM HECTORED ON WED. DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURS TUE NIGHT...RAISED POPS TO NEAR 100% TUE NIGHT...AS MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING FOG OVER NW AREAS WHERE LOW LEVEL WEDGE IS SLOWER TO SCOUR OUT. STILL DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH ~990 MB SFC LOW TRACKING NINE FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY WED. DEW PTS SOAR INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER-MID 50S IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ON WED...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC FOR FOR LATE AFT/EVENING TSTMS ON WED (CHRISTMAS EVE). AT THIS POINT THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLEARING POTENTIAL (HIGH SHEAR BUT VERY MINIMAL CAPE) ON WED TO LEAD TO SEVERE EX. CPS ONLY HAS FAR SE ZONES IN A MARGINAL RISK ATTN. TIMING ALSO A BIT SLOWER...ACTUAL FRONT NOW PRONGED TO PUSH THROUGH AROUND 06Z/THU...WHICH WOULD FURTHER LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. HIGHS WED INTO THE M-U60S TO LOWER 50S (CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS/SEE CLIMATE SECTION). CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS WED...SHIFTING OFF THE COAST LATER WED NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST BY CHRISTMAS MORNING. SLOWER PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL MAKE FOR VERY MILD MINS CHRISTMAS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S FAR WEST...TO THE MID 50S SE. SKIES BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY WITH BREEZY WESTERLY FLOW BY MID/LATE MORNING CHRISTMAS DAY. RAISED HIGHS TO 55-60 F MOST AREAS AS CAA IS WEAK AND WILL BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPE WARMING (AND DUE TO A WARM BEGINNING). && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES AND MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT/FRI...SLIDING OFF THE SE COAST FRI NIGHT. A COLD FRONT GETS SHEARED APART AS IT CROSSES THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING AND SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH ITS PASSAGE. THE CAA OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT IS BECOMING WEAKER WITH EACH MODEL RUN SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN IN ITS WAKE...EXCEPT MAYBE IN COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST SUN THROUGH AT LEAST MON. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MID-UPPER 50S FRI/SAT...THEN COOL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 50 SUN/MON. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S (OCCASIONALLY IN THE LOWER 50S IMMEDIATE COAST). && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE OUTER BANKS ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING SOUTH WILL CONTINUE THE COOL PERIOD INTO TUESDAY WITH IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IN FOG...DRIZZLE AND RAIN. EXPECT 15-20 KT WINDS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH TUE AFT HELPING TO KEEP IFR STRATUS AND VIS THROUGH MUCH OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY LOCATION ATTM THAT MIGHT LIFT ABOVE IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS KECG. HOWEVER...THIS IS ANYTHING BUT CERTAIN...AND HAVE MAINTAINED IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AT 00Z...IFR HAS TEMPORARILY LIFTED AT KSBY...BUT EXPECT IFR TO BE DOMINANT AFTER 02Z...IF NOT BEFORE. IN ADDITION...VSBY MAY PERIODICALLY BE P6SM AT KORF/KECG BEFORE 03Z...BUT SHOULD DROP TO MVFR/IFR AS MOIST NE FLOW PERSISTS. OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDS AND DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
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&& .MARINE...
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7 PM UPDATE...HAVE RAISED SCA MAINLY FOR SEAS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY OVER THE NORTHERN 2 COASTAL WATERS ZONES...AS TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST 5-6 FT SEAS WILL BUILD INTO THE NRN COASTAL WATERS BEFORE 04Z. IN ADDITION...HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS/SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS TO BETTER MESH WITH OBSERVATIONS AND HI-RES MODELS GUIDANCE. HAVE ALSO EXTENDED SCA IN THE LOWER BAY...MAINLY DUE TO PERSISTENCE OF 5 TO 6 FOOT SEAS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. WINDS HAVE LARGELY DROPPED JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA. ...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...N-NE WINDS 15-25KT ACROSS THE BAY/SOUND/COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CURRITUCK LIGHT AND WAVES 3-4FT (UP TO 5FT POSSIBLE IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY) WILL PERSIST UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING. 4-7FT SEAS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE AND SCA FLAGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE SFC LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFF THE CAPE HATTERAS COAST LATE THIS AFTN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NNE UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...WASHING OUT OFF THE DELMARVA/NJ COAST ON TUE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME E-SE ON TUE AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. SE WINDS GRADUALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE TO 15-25KT LATE TUE NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SLY AND INCREASING TO SOLID SCA SPEEDS OF 20-30KT ACROSS ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE RIVERS...WHERE THE FETCH IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR SCA CONDITIONS IN SLY FLOW. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 5-7 FT ON WED BEFORE SUBSIDING AGAIN BY LATE THU. WAVES ON CHES BAY WILL REACH 4FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT AND OFFSHORE EARLY THU. WINDS REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS THROUGH THU EVENING WHILE BECOMING SW WED NIGHT/EARLY THU THEN W BY THU AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES AND MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT/FRI...SLIDING OFF THE SE COAST FRI NIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS SAT NIGHT AND THE CAA THAT FOLLOWS IS BECOMING WEAKER WITH EACH MODEL RUN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST SUN THROUGH AT LEAST MON. EXPECT IMPROVED CONDITIONS LATE THU EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS AOB 15KT.
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&& .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGHS FOR CHRISTMAS EVE/WED 12/24: RICHMOND.......71 F (1988) NORFOLK........75 F (1891) SALISBURY......67 F (1990) ELIZ CITY NC...75 F (1990) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ632-634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...LKB LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...DAP/WRS MARINE...BMD/WRS CLIMATE...

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