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795
FXUS61 KAKQ 180818
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
418 AM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening frontal boundary laying across the North Carolina
Outer Banks combined with an upper level trough over the
region, will result in the chance for scattered showers and
thunderstorms today into this evening. High pressure gradually
builds toward the Mid Atlantic for the middle and later portion
of the week, bringing a return to hot and humid conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Early this morning, a weakening frontal boundary was laying acrs
the NC Outer Banks, while an upper level trough was moving into
extrm wrn VA and NC. The combination of the upper level trough
moving ESE over the area, and the frontal boundary sliding
farther ESE of the Outer Banks, will maintain slgt chc to chc
Pops for showers and tstms over much of the area into this
evening. Warm and humid with highs ranging fm the mid 80s to
lower 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The upper trough axis passes over the region tonight through
Wed, then settles off the SE coast as a closed upper low by late
Thu. A little warmer temps combined with the passage of the
upper trough, could again trigger isolated to sctd showers and
tstms, esply Wed aftn/evening. Lows tonight in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. Highs on Wed will range fm the upper 80s to mid 90s
with heat index values between 95 and 100 degrees.

Upper high pressure will build twd the nrn Mid Atlc region
during Thu. Except for isolated sea breeze induced showers or
tstms Thu aftn/evening, expect hot and humid conditions with
highs in the mid 90s most places. Heat index values will range
between 98 and 105 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Bermuda High settles over the central Atlantic the rest of this
week as very persistent troughing continues across the Eastern
Seaboard. Mid Atlantic Region remains well ensconced in a warm
sector throughout the long term forecast. Expect periods of
unsettled weather with showers/storms developing each
aftn/evening...especially invof lee trough axis which develops
Wednesday and persists through at least Saturday. Otherwise,
warm and muggy conditions continue with dewpoints in the
upper 60s NW to around 75F SE. Meanwhile, high temps will be in
the mid-upper 90s Fri/Sat (possibly pushing 100 degrees in
cntrl VA on Friday) and low-mid 90s Sunday. Lows in the 70s each
night. The combination of heat and humidity will support
widespread heat indices in the 100-105 range with 105-109
possible SE for Thursday through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Wave of low pressure along a frontal boundary across the region
has sparked off this evenings strong tstms, but they have stayed
away from the airfields. Kept VCTS in at RIC for a few hrs based
of current radar trends. Otw, chc not high enough through the
night to include any pcpn. Data suggests a combination of a SC
deck developing btwn 2-3K ft after 06Z along with some patchy
MVFR BR across the Piedmont/lowr MD eastern shore. Another day
of sct-bkn aftrn CU developing Tues with minimal chc of pcpn.

OUTLOOK...High pressure builds over the SE Conus for the rest of
the week with primarily dry conditions expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Trough sfc-aloft to gradually weaken through Wed...then hi pres
rebuilds over the waters by the end of the week. Prevailing
winds will remain SSW through the period...mainly aob 15
kt...though some increase in speeds late each day into the
overnight hours. Seas 2-3ft. Waves 1-2ft.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG/MRD
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...ALB