Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 200600 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 200 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains centered northwest of the area through the end of the week. Tropical Cyclone Jose will continue to track northeast to a position off the southern New England coast later today, then meander there through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... At 11 PM...Jose has weakened to a tropical storm and is located about 230 miles south of Nantucket, Mass, moving NE at 9 mph. As it moves away, the outer bands of shwrs are pulling away from the region with just a few light returns noted over the eastern shore and Ches Bay. Will keep isltd pops across those areas for a few more hrs then dry with a slow clearing trend. Lows in the lwr 60s NW to around 70 at the beaches. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure over the region along with subsidence in the wake of departing Jose results in a mostly sunny and unseasonably warm day Wed. Latest data suggests enough moisture for sct convection to develop over the mts after 18Z, but generally dissipating as it tries to move east. Will carry slight chc pops over the eastern Piedmont (~20%) in the afternoon as some hi-res guidance indicates potential for an isold shwr/tstm. H85 temps btwn 15-16C along with ample sunshine results in highs reaching the mid-upr 80s to around 90 west of the Bay, lwr 80s along the immediate coast. Mstly clr and warm Wed night. Lows 65-70. Mostly sunny and warm Thurs and Friday as the high dominates. Highs in the mid/upr 80s, except upr 70s to low 80s beaches. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Hi pres sfc-aloft builds over the ern Great Lakes and NE CONUS from Fri night into early next week as remnant lo pres (Jose) slowly circulates ESE of New England. Other than possible periods of SC off the ocean (by the late in the weekend-early next week) - esp at the coast...expecting dry /above normal conditions. Extended models have a little better at consensus wrt tropical systems into early next week. Tropical cyclone Maria expected to move to (well?) E of the SE CONUS coast by Sun-Mon. Monitor forecasts from NHC on Maria through the weekend. Highs Sat-Sun in the l80s at the coast...m-u80s elsewhere...then in the u70s-m80s Mon-Tue. Lows in the l-m60s inland to the u60s-around 70F at the coast. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Tropical Storm Jose will continue to lift northward through the night allowing for improving aviation conditions. MVFR ceilings across the northeast (including SBY) will lift over the next couple of hours, improving to VFR after 08Z. Mainly dry/VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of the forecast period. An isolated shower or thunderstorm may be possible over far western portions of the region late Wednesday afternoon. Winds will be out of the N/NW around 5 to 10 knots for much of the forecast period. Outlook: Generally VFR/dry conditions are anticipated through the extended period as high pressure builds into the region.
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&& .MARINE... All Tropical Storm Warnings have been allowed to expire and replaced with Small Craft Advisories as TS Jose continues to lift north of the waters. Seas currently avg to 6-8 ft nearshore and 9-12 ft out 20 nm. Waves over the Bay avg 2-4 ft except up to 4-5 ft at the mouth of the Bay. Marine conditions then improve later tonight into Wed as Jose pushes well off to the NE and weak high pressure builds in from the NW. Sub- SCA conditions prevail Wed into Thu (except for lingering 5 ft+ seas on the coastal waters Wed). Seas are expected to start to once again ramp up Fri into the weekend as swells from distant Hurricane Maria begin to affect the region so additional SCA or Small Craft advisory for hazardous seas will likely be needed for the coastal waters. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Tidal departures avg +1.75 to +2.25 ft over the lower Bay, tapered to only about +0.5 to +1.0 feet in the upper Bay. Will continue coastal flood advisories for all Bay/river zones through the upcoming high tide cycle this evening/early Wed am. Have coastal flood warnings in effect for the zones adjacent to the Atlantic ocean as water has piled up into some of the inlets and additional moderate flooding is expected through this evening`s high tide, though some areas may fall a little shy of moderate criteria as the departures are starting to fall over the past 2 hrs. Also, added a coastal flood advisory for the Bay side of the MD eastern shore from midnight through 6 am with the expectation that tidal departures will slowly creep up with as the strong northerly winds subside later tonight and water remains piled up to some extent in the Bay as waves outside of the mouth of the Bay remain elevated on Wed. Additional minor flooding will be possible later wed/Wed night, but given the uncertainty did not extend the headlines out through this period yet. High surf advisory also remains for all coastal areas into this evening due to nearshore waves of 8-11 ft. High risk for rip currents for all beaches adjacent to coastal waters now extended through Wed as swell/nearshore waves will be slow to subside. && .CLIMATE... Record highs for 9/20: RIC...95 in 2005 ORF...97 in 1895 SBY...90 in 1983 ECG...93 in 1942 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ024-025. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for MDZ021>023. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to 11 AM EDT this morning for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for VAZ075-077-078-084>086-089-090-093. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ095>097-523>525. Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to 11 AM EDT this morning for VAZ098. Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ099-100. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650- 652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ630>632. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM/MPR NEAR TERM...ESS/JDM/MPR SHORT TERM...JDM/MPR LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...AJB MARINE...AJB/MAS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE...

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