Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 191352 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 952 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FCST GENLY ON TRACK ATTM. CONSIDERABLE CLDNS COVERS THE FA LT THIS MRNG...AND XPCG THAT NOT TO CHANGE ALL THAT MUCH THROUGH REST OF THE DAY. WK SFC TROUGH RMNS INVOF/JUST OFF THE CAROLINA CST...W/ SFC HI PRES PARKED OVR NEW ENG. ALSO...WK SFC LO PRES PUSHING E (SLOLY) THROUGH TN VLY. THE COMBO OF THESE 3 SYSTEMS WILL KP CLDNS OVR THE RGN...TEMPS DOWN (WELL BLO SEASONAL NORMALS)...AND A (LO) CHC FOR SHRAS. WILL CONT W/ HIGHEST POPS (30-40%) INVOF SE VA/NE NC CLOSE TO THE TROUGH OFFSHORE. ELSW...PCPN FM THE W WILL CONT TO HAVE TOUGH TIME SPREADING OVR THE RGN AS LO/MID LVLS HAVE CONTD LIMITED SATURATION. HI TEMPS FM THE U70S TO L80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHC FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKS NE THROUGH THE SW FLOW ALOFT. LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE 60S (OVERALL SIDED ON WARM EDGE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUD COVER). FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO FLATTEN OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE ON SUN. THIS SHOULD ACT TO WEAKEN/PUSH THE SFC COASTAL TROUGH FARTHER OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST GETS PUSHED OFF TO THE E INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WITH FAIRLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE LOCALLY...EXPECT MORNING CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL AFTN SUNSHINE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S INLAND WITH UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AT THE COAST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE LARGELY KEEPING STABLE CONDITIONS/ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE DURING THE TIME...WILL CARRY ONLY MINIMAL (20-30%) POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE FAR WESTERN/SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 60S...TO AROUND 70 F. BY MON...MODELS SHOW SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH ONCE AGAIN...BRINGING SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE INTO THE LOCAL AREA ALTHOUGH THE TRUE DEEP MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN FROM THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTHERN NC COAST. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS OVER SOUTHERN VA/NE NC (30%) WHILE KEEPING FORECAST DRY IN MD EASTERN SHORE. VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID- UPPER 80S MOST AREAS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODELS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD, AND FOLLOWED A MODEL CONSENSUS. AS UPPER TROUGH IS NUDGED FARTHER OFFSHORE, DEVELOPING RIDGING WILL BRING BROAD RETURN FLOW (SW) ALOFT...WITH PW VALUES INCREMENTALLY EDGING UPWARD MON-WED. AT THE SURFACE, KEY FEATURE EARLY ON WILL BE INVERTED TROUGH OR QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY, WHICH WILL BE DRAPED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY TUESDAY. EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY WL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AS THE WEEK WEARS ON WITH THE OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH TO BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN KICKING IN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. GIVEN THAT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE, AND WITH STRONG DIURNAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED EACH DAY, EXPECT ISO TO WIDELY SCT TSRA TO DEVELOP EACH DAY, AND HV THEREFORE RETAINED MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS RIGHT AROUND 70. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AREAS OF WEAK LO PRES WILL MOVE NNE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE MID ATLC CST TODAY THRU MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER MOIST NE FLOW ACRS THE AREA. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT ANY ISLTD OR WIDELY SCTD PCPN COULD PRODUCE LWR CIGS OR VSBYS AT ANY TAF SITE. NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM SBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE...TECHNICIANS ARE AWARE OF THE PROBLEM. && .MARINE... NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU SUN NGT. INVERTED TROF/SFC BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE CST TODAY THRU MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED NE OR E FLO 15 KT OR LESS ACRS THE WTRS. WAVES WILL RANGE FM 1 TO 3 FT OVR THE RIVERS/CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SND...WHILE SEAS WILL MAINLY BE 3 TO 4 FT. THAT BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT EARLY TUE...WITH HI PRES BLDNG OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUE THRU WED. WINDS WILL TURN FM THE SE TO THE SW DURING THIS TIME. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB LONG TERM...MAM AVIATION...TMG MARINE...TMG

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