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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251934
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
334 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION
REMAINING SOUTH OF FA. MAINLY CLR WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A WEAK S/W TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SAT AFTRN/EVE. MEANWHILE...THE
OLD FRNTL BNDRY BEGINS TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY SAT
NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WRT RETURNING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS MOST
OF THE FA. GIVEN POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVG EAST ACROSS NRN
VA...DECIDED TO ADD ISLTD POPS TO NRN NECK & LWR MD ERN SHORE SAT
AFTRN. DRY ELSEWHERE. H85 TMPS RISE A BIT RESULTING IN HIGH TMPS
IN THE U80S-L90S WEST OF THE BAY...M80S ALONG THE COAST. WARMER AND
MORE HUMID SAT NIGHT. LOWS U60S-L70S.

NEXT S/W DROPS SE FROM THE UPR MID WEST SUN. THIS BEGINS TO CARVE
OUT AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH INTO EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT APPRCHS FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY WITH THE
INITIAL S/W PROGGED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF FA. THERMAL TROF DVLPS
WITH ENUF MOISTURE/INSTAB PROGGED TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO DVLP ACROSS
THE MTS THEN DRIFT ESE ACROSS THE FA SUN AFTRN/NIGHT AHEAD OF APPRCHG
COLD FRONT. SPC DY3 OUTLOOK HAS VA/MD IN A SLGHT RISK FOR DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL DUE TO POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LATER IN THE
DAY. KEPT CHC POPS IN FCST FOR NOW WITH THE HIGHEST CHC ACROSS
NWRN MOST COUNTIES. HEAT / HUMIDITY RETURN WITH HIGHS U80S ALONG
THE COAST...90-95 WEST OF BAY.

KEPT CHC POPS GOING SUN NIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPRCHS. LOWS 70-75.

MONDAYS FORECAST RATHER PROBLEMATIC AS STRNG COLD FRONT COMES THRU
EARLY ENOUGH FOR MORNING CONVECTION WITH PSBL DRYING BY LATE IN THE
DAY. KEPT CHC POPS HERE WITH HIGHEST CHCS ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGHS
U80S-L90S GIVEN DOWNSLOPING W WINDS & SOME AFTRN HTNG BEHIND FROPA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF DIGS INTO AND OVR THE MID ATLC REGION
MON NGT INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE OH AND MS
VALLEYS THU AFTN THRU FRI. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CST MON NGT
AND TUE...LINGERS FARTHER OFF THE CST TUE NGT THRU THU...THEN
POSSIBLY DRIFTS BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI. OTHER THAN A SLGT OR SML
CHC FOR SHOWERS OVR EXTRM SE VA AND NE NC MON NGT INTO TUE
MORNG...WILL HAVE A DRY FCST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL DOMINATE THE AREA TUE INTO
THU...BEFORE A LITTLE MORE HUMIDITY RETURNS ON FRI. MAX TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FM THE LWR 60S TO LWR 70S TUE MORNG...RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO
MID 60S WED AND THU MORNGS...AND RANGE THRU THE 60S FRI MORNG.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STALLING SFC COLD FRONT ALONG THE NC COAST WILL GRADUALLY WASH
OUT/DISSIPATE TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS AOB 10 KT
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE N-NE
TODAY...TURNING E-SE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTN AS A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH AND MID LEVEL WAVE PASS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC.

S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO 15KT EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S DOWN NRN CHES BAY TO ROUGHLY THE POTOMAC
RIVER SIGNIFIES DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. WINDS DOWN THE
ENTIRE BAY ARE GENERALLY NW-N AT 10-15 KT AND WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...QUIET CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB 10 KT TODAY/TONIGHT.
THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SAT MORNING
WITH SE WINDS AOB 15 KT...BECOMING SW BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
SLY SURGE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING MAY PUSH WIND SPEEDS INTO
LOW-END SCA ON CHES BAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. HOWEVER...WAA
PROCESSES DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE WATERS
MAY PREVENT THIS FROM COMING TO FRUITION. BREEZY SW WINDS AOB 15 KT
CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND TURNS THE WINDS TO THE NW AOB 15 KT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...TMG