Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KAKQ 301843
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
143 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016
A cold front will approach from the west today, then pushes across
the Mid Atlantic region tonight into Thursday morning. High
pressure slowly builds into the area Thursday through Sunday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Late this morning, upper low pressure was located over MN/WI,
with sfc low pressure cntrd over Lake Superior and nrn Lake
Michigan. A cold front extended fm the low swrd thru ern IN and
wrn KY/TN. Warm front and associated showers acrs portions of the
area earlier this morning, was moving N of the CWA late this
morning. Have adjusted Pops downward a bit acrs most of the area
for this aftn into early this evening, based on latest rdr trends,
timing of cold front pushing E, and HRRR reflectivity fcst.
Southerly winds and possible breaks in the clouds, will help temps
climb into the 70s over most of the region. Have slgt chc of
thunder all locations. The cold front will approach the extrm wrn
counties by early this evening.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The cold front pushes across the FA and off the coast tonight into
early Thu morning...w/ shras (isold tstms). Gusty winds and heavy
downpours a possibility with any tstms. Clearing out fm WNW to ESE
late Wed ngt into Thu morning...as WNW flow behind the front
ushers drier air into the region. Lows tonight fm the u40s-around
50F NW to the around 60F SE.
Dry/cooler wx expected Thu thru Fri...as W flow dominates the
area. Sfc hi pres gradually builds toward the region fm the WNW.
Generally mostly sunny both days...w/ highs Thu in the l-m60s...
highs Fri in the l-m50s. Lows Thu ngt fm the l-m30s to around 40F.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cool high pressure is expected to be centered from the
Mississippi Valley through the Southeast Conus Friday night into
Saturday. High pressure builds over the Mid-Atlantic region
Saturday night into Sunday as a split flow pattern develops aloft,
with a srn stream system tracking along the Gulf Coast States, and
a nrn stream wave diving into the Upper Midwest. This will result
in dry conditions under a mainly clear sky, although high clouds
may increase by Sunday. Temperatures are expected to be slightly
below seasonal averages, but within -1 st dev. Forecast lows
Friday night and Saturday night range from the low 30s inland to
the mid/upper 30s along the coast, with highs Saturday/Sunday in
the upper 40s to low 50s. GFS/ECMWF keep the srn stream system
south of the region Sunday night into Monday. However, the ECMWF
is more aggressive with the nrn stream wave, but the net result
may be minimal with respect to sensible weather as the system will
be moisture starved. High pressure returns later Monday into
Monday night, with low pressure approaching from the west during
the Tuesday/Tuesday night timeframe. At this time the 29/12z GFS
is about 12hrs faster than the 29/12z ECMWF.
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 18z...A cold front extends from low pressure over northern
Michigan south across western Ohio to the Alabama Gulf Coast. This
front will move across the Appalachians this evening and reach the
Mid Atlantic Coast overnight.
Showers ended over the area this morning. More showers and a few
thunderstorms were over West Virginia at midday. VFR with occasional
MVFR ceilings were observed at the TAF sites. Showers will accompany
the cold front late this evening and overnight. There will also be a
chance for thunderstorms. MVFR and brief IFR can be expected during
South to southwest winds will gust to between 20 and 25 knots this
afternoon. Winds will continue gusty at times until frontal passage
and slowly veer behind the front. Winds may gust to around 15 to 20
knots from the west and northwest during Thursday.
OUTLOOK...High pressure builds from the west through Friday and
settles over the region Saturday and Sunday. VFR and dry conditions
can be expected. There will be a chance for rain Sunday night and
Monday as weak low pressure moves from the Lower Mississippi
Valley and across the Southeast States.
SCAs remain in effect for the coastal waters this morning. SCAs
begin for the Bay, rivers and sound at Noon.
A cold front is expected to push through the Ohio Valley
today and then push off the Mid-Atlantic Coast late tonight. The
wind will increase from the south at 15-25 kt by this afternoon
and continue into this evening. The wind then becomes westerly at
10-15kt (minimal CAA) behind the front late tonight into
Thursday. Waves will build to 3-4 ft on the Ches Bay with 5-7 ft
seas. A nw wind of 10-15kt/15-20kt ocean should prevail Friday
into Saturday as high pressure builds across the Southeast Conus
and low pressure persists over Atlantic Canada. High pressure
builds over the region Saturday night into Sunday. Seas subside
from 3-4ft to 2-3ft, with ~2ft waves in the Bay.
Well above normal temperatures are forecast Wednesday. Some
temperatures will approach record highs.
Richmond: 77 (1933)
Norfolk: 79 (2001)
Salisbury: 74 (1933)
Elizabeth City: 80 (2001)
Wallops Island: 74 (1991)
Record high mins challenged:
Salisbury 61 (2001) (tied as of this morning)
Elizabeth City 60 (1934)
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ635>638.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for ANZ630>634.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ654-656-
Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ650-
Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Thursday for ANZ650-652.