Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 251934 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 334 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION REMAINING SOUTH OF FA. MAINLY CLR WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A WEAK S/W TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SAT AFTRN/EVE. MEANWHILE...THE OLD FRNTL BNDRY BEGINS TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY SAT NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WRT RETURNING MOISTURE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS MOST OF THE FA. GIVEN POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVG EAST ACROSS NRN VA...DECIDED TO ADD ISLTD POPS TO NRN NECK & LWR MD ERN SHORE SAT AFTRN. DRY ELSEWHERE. H85 TMPS RISE A BIT RESULTING IN HIGH TMPS IN THE U80S-L90S WEST OF THE BAY...M80S ALONG THE COAST. WARMER AND MORE HUMID SAT NIGHT. LOWS U60S-L70S. NEXT S/W DROPS SE FROM THE UPR MID WEST SUN. THIS BEGINS TO CARVE OUT AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH INTO EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT APPRCHS FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY WITH THE INITIAL S/W PROGGED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF FA. THERMAL TROF DVLPS WITH ENUF MOISTURE/INSTAB PROGGED TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO DVLP ACROSS THE MTS THEN DRIFT ESE ACROSS THE FA SUN AFTRN/NIGHT AHEAD OF APPRCHG COLD FRONT. SPC DY3 OUTLOOK HAS VA/MD IN A SLGHT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL DUE TO POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LATER IN THE DAY. KEPT CHC POPS IN FCST FOR NOW WITH THE HIGHEST CHC ACROSS NWRN MOST COUNTIES. HEAT / HUMIDITY RETURN WITH HIGHS U80S ALONG THE COAST...90-95 WEST OF BAY. KEPT CHC POPS GOING SUN NIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPRCHS. LOWS 70-75. MONDAYS FORECAST RATHER PROBLEMATIC AS STRNG COLD FRONT COMES THRU EARLY ENOUGH FOR MORNING CONVECTION WITH PSBL DRYING BY LATE IN THE DAY. KEPT CHC POPS HERE WITH HIGHEST CHCS ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGHS U80S-L90S GIVEN DOWNSLOPING W WINDS & SOME AFTRN HTNG BEHIND FROPA.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF DIGS INTO AND OVR THE MID ATLC REGION MON NGT INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE OH AND MS VALLEYS THU AFTN THRU FRI. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CST MON NGT AND TUE...LINGERS FARTHER OFF THE CST TUE NGT THRU THU...THEN POSSIBLY DRIFTS BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI. OTHER THAN A SLGT OR SML CHC FOR SHOWERS OVR EXTRM SE VA AND NE NC MON NGT INTO TUE MORNG...WILL HAVE A DRY FCST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL DOMINATE THE AREA TUE INTO THU...BEFORE A LITTLE MORE HUMIDITY RETURNS ON FRI. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 60S TO LWR 70S TUE MORNG...RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S WED AND THU MORNGS...AND RANGE THRU THE 60S FRI MORNG.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A STALLING SFC COLD FRONT ALONG THE NC COAST WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT/DISSIPATE TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE N-NE TODAY...TURNING E-SE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTN AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND MID LEVEL WAVE PASS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC. S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO 15KT EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. && .MARINE... DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S DOWN NRN CHES BAY TO ROUGHLY THE POTOMAC RIVER SIGNIFIES DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. WINDS DOWN THE ENTIRE BAY ARE GENERALLY NW-N AT 10-15 KT AND WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB 10 KT TODAY/TONIGHT. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SAT MORNING WITH SE WINDS AOB 15 KT...BECOMING SW BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A SLY SURGE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING MAY PUSH WIND SPEEDS INTO LOW-END SCA ON CHES BAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. HOWEVER...WAA PROCESSES DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE WATERS MAY PREVENT THIS FROM COMING TO FRUITION. BREEZY SW WINDS AOB 15 KT CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TURNS THE WINDS TO THE NW AOB 15 KT INTO TUESDAY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...DAP MARINE...TMG

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