Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 231937 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 337 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... THEN DISSIPATES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... SCT CONVECTION ACROSS THE MTS PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE SE IVOF THERMAL TROF LATE THIS AFTRN. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS THRU THE EVENING. MODELS SHOW A LULL IN PCPN COVERAGE LATER THIS EVE BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF APPRCHG COLD FRONT. BEST SUPPORT FOR PCPN WILL BE ACROSS NRN HALF OF FA TOWARDS SUNRISE WITH HIGHEST POPS (40%) ACROSS NORTHERN MOST AREAS. OTW..PT TO MSTLY CLDY & MUGGY. LOWS 70-75. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... COLD FRONT PROGGED TO DROP SE ACROSS THE FA THU MORNING BEFORE SLOWING AS IT APPRCHS THE NC/NC BORDER DRNG THE AFTRN. MEANWHILE... MODELS DEPICT WEAK S/W MOVG NE ALONG THE BNDRY DRNG THE AFTRN AND EVENING. BEST FORCING COUPLED WITH A 60-70KT RRQ OF UPR JET APPEARS TO ENHANCE PCPN CHC ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA. APPEARS THAT PORTIONS OF THE FA THAT NEED RAIN THE MOST (IVOF RIC METRO AREA) MAY LUCK OUT WITH THE HIGHER QPF`S ONCE AGAIN. SVR THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE AND TIMING OF THE FROPA. GIVEN PW`S AOA 1.5 INCHES...SOME HVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WNDS PSBL IN ANY TSTRM ACROSS THE SOUTH. KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR NOW ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF FA...CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. TMPS TRICKY. HIGHS 80-85 NORTH... 85-90 SOUTH. BNDRY PROGGED TO STALL/WASH OUT ACROSS SERN VA/NRN NC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING WITH LINGERING TROF ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRI AFTRN. LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING THE EVE...WITH CHC POPS AFTER MIDNITE. DRYING FROM THE NORTH ENDS PCPN THERE. STILL MUGGY THU NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. DRY FRI EXCEPT KEPT A SLIGHT CHC POP IN ACROSS NC CNTYS DRNG THE AFTRN. HIGHS IN THE L-M80S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER WRT RETURNING MOISTURE SAT AFTRN. GFS WETTER FARTHER NORTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINITY. LOWS FRI NIGHT 65-70. HIGHS SAT 85-90. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER NC FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS. FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY OVER NC ON SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWING LIFTING BACK NORTH THROUGH VA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH SATURDAY FOR POSSIBILITY OF AFTN CONVECTION NEAR THE FRONT. BY SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL ALIGN ITSELF ACROSS NORTHERN VA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. WILL CARRY CHC POPS INTO MONDAY AS WELL AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES NEARBY. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY/COOLER AIR ARRIVING NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 80S. WARMEST SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S. COOLER AGAIN NEXT TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CU 3-4K FT AGL. LATEST RADAR TRENDS DEPICT A PRECIP FREE LOCAL AREA...WITH MUCH OF THE MEASURABLE PRECIP REMAINING OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. AREA OF EXPANDING CU OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT IN TAFS. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT AREAS ALONG THE COAST TO REMAIN DRY. OTHERWISE...A SHARPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE OH VALLEY...WILL RESULT IN S-SWLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB 10-15 KT. EXPECT CU AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT...SLOWING CROSSING THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. MIXING WILL LIKELY LIMIT FOG COVERAGE TONIGHT. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THURS AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WNW ON FRIDAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY...BRINGING A RETURN TO RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND. NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. TECHNICIANS ARE AWARE OF THE ISSUE. CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. IN THE MEANTIME...AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. && .MARINE... LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SWITCHING ANYWHERE FROM ESE TO S TODAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 5-10 KT THIS MORNING...BECOMING 10-15 KT BY THIS AFTN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WNW. A PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS AHEAD OF IT AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MID-LATE AFTN THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT (AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS...GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE OVER OCEAN). THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO THU WITH SHOWERS/STORMS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. WINDS TURN TO A MORE S-SW DIRECTION TONIGHT...W-NW ON THU...THEN N THU NIGHT. WAVES GENERALLY 1 FOOT THIS MORNING...BUILDING TO 1-2 FT BY MID-LATE AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS 2-3 FT THIS MORNING... BUILDING TO 3-4 FT EARLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WAVES/SEAS START TO SUBSIDE THU AFTN AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO STALL ALONG THE NC COAST...WHICH WILL ALSO CAUSE PRECIP TO BECOME SHUNTED OVER FAR SE VA/NE NC BY THU NIGHT INTO FRI. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS ON FRI AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB 10 KT FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SAT MORNING...BRINGING A RETURN TO ONSHORE E-SE WINDS AOB 15 KT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE REGION WILL APPROACH THE WATERS SUN NIGHT. && .EQUIPMENT... KDOX RADAR HAS RETURNED TO SERVICE BUT REMAINS UNSTABLE. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...SAM MARINE...MAS EQUIPMENT...AKQ

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