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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 161834
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
234 PM EDT Tue May 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure becomes centered off the southeast coast through
Friday. A frontal boundary moves into the area Friday night,
then stalls across the region over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Sfc high pushes offshore allowing winds to become SSE. Mostly clear
and milder than past few nights. Lows 60-65 except upr 50s along the
eastern shore beaches.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Sfc high becomes centered off the sern coast through Friday bringing
a taste of summer to the fa. Still see a lee trof developing in the
models, but no real trigger for any organized convection to develop,
except over the mts. However, SREF suggests isltd convection psbl
around 21Z across coastal Tidewater / nrn Outer Banks due to sea
breeze convergence. Given low confidence this will occur, kept it
dry but carried a silent 10 pop.

Otherwise, partly to mostly sunny days along with mild nights. A
cold front approaches from the NW late Friday. Best dynamics progged
north of the region but kept chc pops after 18Z (which is NAM-ECMWF
timing blend) as moisture increases ahead of the boundary. GFS appears
somewhat quick with pcpn overspreading the region during the aftrn.

H85 temps along with low level thicknesses support highs in the low-
mid 90s west of the Ches Bay Wed with mid-upr 80s along the coast,
cooler at the beaches. Some record highs will be challenged. See CLI
section below. Heat index values will be held in check (around the
actual air temp) given dew points btwn 60-65. Highs both Thurs and
Fri in the upr 80s-lwr 90s, except cooler near the water. Lows 65-70.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
An end to the summer-like wx expected this weekend as a cold
front settles S through the FA Fri night-Sat morning...pushing
into srn NC Sat afternoon. Models now in better agreement w/
that scenerio. SCT shras-possible tstms expected (early) Fri
night...then lowering PoPs Sat (NE-SW) as NE winds bring in
cooler air. Models are more aggressive attm w/ widespread
cloudiness Sat into Sun morning before any residual frontal
boundary pulls back N Sun afternoon. A cold front will be
approaching from the W Sun night-Mon morning...then push across
the FA Mon afternoon-night w/ high prob (50-70%) for
SHRAS/tstms. Clearing out/cooler Tue.

Lows Fri night in the l-m60s. Highs Sat from the u60s-l70s near
the coast to around 80F (well) inland. Lows Sat night in the
u50s-around 60F N to the m60s SE. Highs Sun from the u60s-m70s
athe coast to around 80F inland. Lows Sun night ranging through
the 60s. Highs Mon in the u70s-around 80F on the eastern shore
to the m80s inland. Highs Tue mainly in the m-u70s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions continue across the region as high pressure
moves off the coast tonight. Little if any clouds to speak
of, but a wind shift to the south then southwest expected
before the end of the forecast period.

Outlook:
High pressure off the coast dominate through late week, with
a summer-like pattern taking hold on SW winds. The next chance
for convection arrives late Friday into Saturday, as a frontal
boundary stalls over the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Sfc hi pres will be the predominant wx system through the rest
of the week...remaining nearly stationary in the wrn Atlantic
into Fri. Winds mainly light/VRB trending SSE through this
eve...picking up to average about 10 kt. S-SSW winds expected
from late tonight through Fri. Wind speeds increase late tonight
through Thu night (potentially highest in the eve hrs Wed-Thu)
but remain below SCA. Seas generally 1-3 ft with periods of up
to 4 ft nrn coastal waters Thu night-Fri morning. Waves 1-2 ft
and possibly 2-3 ft during same timeframe as higher seas.

A cold front crosses the waters N-S Fri night into Sat
afternoon...resulting in winds shifting to NE (and increasing by
Sat afternoon to low end SCA). In addition to the winds
increasing from the NE...waves expected to build to 2-4 ft on
Ches Bay...and seas to 3-5 ft. The remnant cold front is slow to
return back N during Sun...swinging winds back to the SSW (and
waves/seas likely to lower as well by the end of the weekend).

&&

.CLIMATE...
Here are the forecast/record highs for Wednesday (5/17)...

                 Record
Location          High   Year
--------        -------- ------
Richmond           94    1974
Norfolk            93    1941
Salisbury          90    1944
Elizabeth City     95    1941

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...AJB/MPR
MARINE...ALB
CLIMATE...AKQ