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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021814
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
114 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FG GONE NOW...AND DRYING WILL CONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
XPCG A TEMP SPIKE NEXT FEW HRS BEFORE CAA REALLY TAKES HOLD. POPS
TO BE BLO 14%...AND HI TEMPS FM THE L/M40S ON THE ERN SHORE TO
ARND 50F (WELL) INLAND IN CNTRL/SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1035MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONITE. XPCT M CLR TO PT
CLDY SKIES TO START OFF THE EVENING. TSCTNS SHOW MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNITE. SKIES STAY CLR LONG
ENOUGH FOR TMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. LOWS FROM THE L-M20S ERN
SHORE...M-U20S W OF THE BAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WSW WITH A NE INSITU-WEDGE
SETTING UP AT THE SFC AS ANY WRM FRNT SNAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MTS.
DATA INDICATES PCPN DELAYED UNTIL AFTR 15Z WITH PCPN OVERSPREADING
THE PIEDMONT (MAINLY W OF I95 CORRIDOR) BTWN 15-18Z. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS SUGGEST THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN IS
PSBL AT THE ONSET IN AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF RIC...TRANSITIONING TO
PLAIN RAIN DURING THE AFTN. BEST VV`S/OMEGA REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF FA TUE AFTN WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE. GIVEN ANTHR WEDGE
EVENT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BUT KEPT
THEM ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS FROM THE M-U30S NRN HALF OF FA...U30S-
L40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST
MOISTURE (THUS HIGHEST POPS) SEEN IN THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT 00Z WITH RISING TMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TMPS BY 12Z WED
RISE INTO THE M40S-L50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRNG SSW FLOW.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN TO CONT PCPN CHCS. WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED
THE PCPN TYPE TO MORE CONVECTIVE RATHER THAN STRATIFORMED. NO
THUNDER EXPECTED AS DATA SHOWS MOST INSTABILITY REMAINING OFFSHORE
INVOF GULF STREAM. ALMOST A SPRING FEEL TO THE DAY AS TMPS FINALLY
RISE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE U-U50S ERN SHORE...60S MOST AREAS
W OF THE BAY (70 PSBL ACROSS NE NC).

MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER UP DIFFERENT TIMING SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS
TO THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE TIMING WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW
FAST THE COLDER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE FA CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW
AS YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE
BNDRY. FOR NOW...FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN SO I SLOWED THE FROPA DOWN
SEVERAL MORE HRS (TO A PSN ACROSS AKQ`S NRN MOST CNTYS AT 12Z THU).
THIS CHANGE REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITES TMPS / WX. THE
WARMER SOLN SUGGESTS PCPN REMAINS MAINLY LIQUID THROUGH 12Z THURS.
LOWS IN THE L-M30S NRN MOST CNTYS...U30S-M40S SOUTH. STRNG CAA
ALONG WITH CRASHING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RESULTS IN RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW N-S THURSDAY ALONG WITH FALLING TMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR
THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD
AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN
SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE
ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS MAINLY CLEAR OF LOWERED CIGS EARLY THIS
AFTN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KECG....WHICH IS QUICKLY SEEING
IMPROVEMENTS THIS HOUR (OR 02/1800Z). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD EARLY
TUE MORNING AND THEN OFFSHORE BY TUE AFTN. MORE PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE TUE AFTN/NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN DETERIORATED CONDITIONS EARLY
WED...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WED
AFTN/EVENING. PRECIPITATION BEGINS AS ALL RAIN ON WED...AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX AND THEN TO PRIMARILY
SNOW FROM NW TO SE THU AFTN/EVENING. PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA FRI THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1PM...CAA BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN RATHER
LIMITED AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 40S COASTAL AREAS. WINDS A
FEW THOUSAND FT OFF THE WATER HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND
30-35KT...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR THE COLD WATER HAVE
PREVENTED THE HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. AS A
RESULT...THE SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY HAVE BEEN DROPPED. WILL RE-
EVALUATE THE COASTAL WATERS AS 5 FT SEAS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO REACH
GIVEN NW GUSTS AROUND 25 KT...OUTSIDE OF THE SRN COASTAL ZONES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN
NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE
BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS
15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL
SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES
SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL HOLD ON INTO THE
EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND
NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY
MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW:

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1979.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD/MPR
AVIATION...BMD/JDM
MARINE...BMD/JDM
CLIMATE...