Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 160002 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 802 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary stalls near the Virginia North Carolina border later today into early Sunday. This boundary dissipates early next week as an upper level trough approaches from the NW. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Latest weather analysis reveals surface cold front extending south from surface low pressure just offshore of the S NJ coast. Slightly drier and not quite as warm across the northern half of the local area behind the frontal passage, with temps averaging in the mid to upper 80s to around 90 degrees at 19z. A few isolated showers have developed ahead of the front across the eastern Tidewater area this afternoon, with latest CAMs indicating showers becoming more widespread across NE NC as showers become more widespread along quasi- stationary frontal boundary oriented west to east from the mid- south into North Central/Northeast NC. PW just ahead of the front are still AOA 2" this afternoon, with sfc dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. This deep moisture in tandem with meager bulk shear values and h85 winds <10 kts portends to slow-moving heavy rainers with convection that develops across the southeast late this aftn through this evening, focused mainly along the sfc trough and the myriad of remnant convective boundaries from last evening and early this morning. Have therefore continued likely rain chances along the NE NC coast from Edenton to Currituck through the late night hours, and have installed heavy rain mention in grids to match the HWO. For the record, WPC has nudged day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook north to include this same part of coastal NE NC. Locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning again are the primary hazards. Boundary will become stalled along or just south of the VA/NC border tonight, with convection gradually diminishing late in the overnight. Some patchy ground fog possible late over the coastal areas (MD Eastern Shore/SE VA/NE NC). Partly cloudy north to mostly cloudy south with lows in the upper 60s north...low to mid 70s se coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... The aforementioned stalled front gradually washes out in place over the region Sunday morning/aftn. Meanwhile, the upper level trough will settle along the east coast tomorrow through Monday. Drier air aloft arriving through the day will allow conditions dry out across the N, with PoPs of 30-50% continuing for far SE VA/NE NC in vicinity of the decaying boundary, tapering back to ~20% for s-central VA to the peninsula. High temperatures range from the upper 80s to around 90 Sunday, after morning lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. By Monday, low pressure deepens over the ern Great Lakes, thereby further sharpening the east coast upper trough over the local area. This should result in at least diurnal convection, focused mainly along subtle (pre-frontal) lee trough to the west, with a secondary area of storms possible with seabreeze interactions along the remains of old boundary over SE VA/NE NC. Continued low end chance pop over the Tidewater, with a 30-40% pop for the far NW Piedmont. No real trigger mechanism in between outside of any convective outflows, so will hold pop at slight chc (20%) from central VA to the Ern Shore. Highs again in the upper 80s to around 90 after morning lows of 70-75F. Next (weak) cool front drops across the area and washes out in similar fashion Monday night into Tuesday. Expect mainly diurnally- driven convection associated with numerous weak shortwaves that push across. After early morning lows in the 70s, look for highs Tuesday again in the upper 80s to low 90s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Bermuda High shifts over the central Atlantic as very persistent troughing continues across the ern half of the US through the rest the week. Expect periods of unsettled conditions with showers/storms developing each aftn/evening. Next best chance for a cold frontal passage appears to be Fri/Fri night, which would focus thunderstorm coverage in this timeframe. Otherwise, warm and muggy conditions will continue with highs generally 90-95F and dewpoints in the upper 60s NW to around 75F SE. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Expecting primarily VFR conditions through the 00Z TAF period. The majority of the shower/thunderstorm activity has dissipated and moved south of the region. There remains a slight chance for a shower or storm at primarily ECG through the first half of the night, but the majority of the activity should remain south. Otherwise, MVFR visbilities may develop overnight as well, particularly at locations that received the most rainfall today. Any fog dissipates shortly after sunrise Sunday morning. Outlook: The front stalls and dissipates near the VA/NC border through Sunday, maintaining a chance of showers/storms for SE VA/NE NC. The initial front dissipates by Monday as a trough approaches from the NW and settles over the area through midweek.
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&& .MARINE... Sfc cold front is stretched from the Delmarva across far SE VA towards cntrl NC late this aftn. Isolated thunderstorms have popped up invof srn Ches Bay (south of New Point Comfort) with more development anticipated into this evening with plenty of seabreeze boundaries present as well as a decent temp/dewpoint gradient just behind the front. Storms are slow-moving and will be highly proficient at producing very heavy rainfall and isolated gusty winds. Showers/storms gradually shift swd overnight as the frontal boundary remains stalled near the VA/NC border into Sunday. The boundary washes out/dissipates during the aftn, however another round of isolated to scattered storms will be possible in the aftn/evening. Bermuda High shifts over the cntrl Atlantic as very persistent troughing continues across the ern half of the US through the rest of this upcoming week. Expect periods of unsettled weather and generally south winds aob 15kt through the end of the forecast period (Wed night). Seas 2-3ft. Waves 1-2ft. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...AJB MARINE...BMD

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