Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 032103 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 403 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY...THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... WARM FRONT CRNTLY LOCATED ALONG AKQ NRN BORDER WITH A MINI WEDGE FROM LKU-FVX WHERE TMPS HOLDING IN THE L-M50S. OTW...TMPS WELL INTO THE 60S TO M70S IN THE WARM SECTOR. INITIAL LINE OF CONVECTION (LEWP) NOW PLOWING THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR AND WILL CONT TO MOVE EAST NEXT SVRL HRS. IF ANY SVR WX DOES OCCUR...IT WILL BE WITH THIS LINE BUT NOTHING SVR HAS BEEN REPORTED THRU THIS WRITING. THUNDER HAS BEEN LIMITED BUT SOME LTG STRIKES ARE PSBL AS THE LINE MOVES EAST. FA REMAINS IN A MARGINAL RISK SO WILL KEEP LOW CHC TSTMS IN GRIDS. FLOOD WATCH UP FOR THE PIEDMONT TONITE FOR 1-2 INCHES QPF GIVEN THE LOW FLOOD GUIDE ON SATURATED GRND FROM RECENT SNOW MELT. CONSIDERED A FLOOD WATCH FARTHER EAST GIVEN 1-2 INCH QPF...BUT FLOOD GUIDE HIGHER WHERE LESS SNOW MELT OCCURRED. THNK STATEMENTS SHOULD COVER THESE AREAS. COLD FRONT PROGGED TO SLOWLY CROSS THE RGN AFTER MIDNITE. HIGH RES DATA SUGGESTS INITIAL SURGE OF MSTR SHIFTS EAST THRU THE NITE. CAT POPS CONT TAPERING OFF TO LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST AFTER MIDNITE THEN TO CHC LATE. CAT POPS ERN SCTNS AS THE FRNT SLOWS ITS MOVEMENT AS T APPRCHS THE COAST TOWARDS SUNRISE. SOME TRAINING ECHOES ARE PSBL ACROSS THE SE AS WELL. LOWS BY 12Z FROM THE M40S NWRN CNTYS TO M50S SERN CSTL AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... FRNT STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST ERLY THU WITH THE STEADIEST PCPN ALONG THE COAST DRNG THE MORNING. LOW PRS DVLPS THEN TRACKS NE ALONG THE BNDRY ALLOWING PCPN TO RETROGRADE NW DRNG THE AFTN. WILL MAINTAIN CAT POPS ACROSS THE SE...LIKELY POPS TO THE I95 CORRIDOR WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE WRN PIEDMONT. QPF AMTS MUCH LIGHTER XPCT ALONG THE SERN BEACH AREAS WHERE UP TO ONE HALF INCH PSBL. LITTLE IF ANY RISE IN TMPS XPCTD WITH HIGHS IN THE L-M50S. TMPS MAY ACTUALLY DROP OVR THE PIEDMONT LATE. INTERESTING FCST THU NITE AS THE LOW TRACKS NE ALONG THE BNDRY. CAA ALLOWS TMPS AND CRITICAL THICKNESSES TO FALL BEFORE THE PCPN ENDS. HOWEVER...SFC TMPS PROGGED TO STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING. THIS PRESENTS PCPN TYPE ISSUES WITH RAIN BECOMING MIXED WITH OR CHANGING TO WET SNOW BEFORE ENDING. PCPN BY THIS TIME SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME DATA SUGGESTS LAGGING VORTICITY PROVIDES ENUF LIFT FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATION ALONG THE COAST INCLUDING TIDEWATER. GIVEN HOW WET THE GRND WILL BE WITH TMPS ABOVE FREEZING...ANY SNOW WUD HAVE TO COME DOWN RATHER HARD TO STICK. THUS...HAVE INDICATED A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO SNOW BY 12Z FRI WITH NO SGNFCNT ACCUMULATION XPCTD. LOWS IN THE L-M30S. LINGERING POPS FRI MORNING (RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE COAST...CHC SNOW INVOF THE CHES BAY WITH PSBL BAY EFFECT) WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRS BUILDS EAST AND INTO THE AREA. TSCTNS SHOW DRYING SO EXPECT DCRG CLDNS WEST TO EAST FRI AFTN. HIGHS IN THE L-M40S. MSTLY CLR TO PT CLDY FRI NITE. LOWS M20S NW TO M30S SE. MSTLY SUNNY SAT. HIGHS 45-50. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD FEATURES A COUPLE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OFF THE SE COAST AND MOVING NORTHEAST. BOTH OF THESE THREATEN TO BRING PCPN TO THE AREA. THE GFS AND EURO WERE TRENDING TOWARD AN OFFSHORE SOLUTION. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT PCPN AMOUNTS MAY NOT BE HEAVY. SINCE THE EVENTS ARE STILL CLOSE TO A WEEK OUT...ESPECIALLY THE SECOND ONE...DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW KEPT POPS NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT. RELIED HEAVILY ON BLENDED GUIDANCE WITH THE FORECAST. THE FIRST SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS A CHC FOR RAIN OVER SE VA/NE NC SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS BEHIND THE FIRST BRINGING SOME COOLING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AS THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. PCPN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE ENDING FROM SW TO NE TUESDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY HAVE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH MAINLY RAIN AT THE COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME OF THE PCPN INLAND. ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH KEEPING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WITH DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. A GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE UPR 40S TO AROUND 50 SUNDAY COOL TO AROUND 40 BY WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FROM 30 TO 35 SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BECOME MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 21Z ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE EASTERN VA PIEDMONT ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. AS RAIN ARRIVES...CIGS WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO MVFR/IFR RANGE AFTER 21Z (AT KRIC)...WITH LOWER CIGS AND WIDESPREAD RAIN SPREADING EAST THROUGH 02Z (WHEN RAIN SHOULD REACH KECG). RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY EVENING WITH ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST LATE TONIGHT...STALLING IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST ON THU. LOW CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUING FOR SE COASTAL TERMINALS KORF/KPHF/KECG. DRY WX AND VFR CONDS IS EXPECTED FOR FRI/SAT. && .MARINE... SFC COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING. THE PRESSURE/TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT...CAUSING A MARKED INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS FOR ALL WATERS DURING THIS EVENING. STRONG SCA CONDITIONS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT...PEAKING AROUND 35-45KT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME THIS EVENING (ROUGHLY IN THE 5-8PM TIME RANGE) AS A STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CROSSES THE WATERS. GIVEN THE SHORT WINDOW FOR GALE GUSTS TO OCCUR...WILL HANDLE THESE DEVELOPING CONDITIONS WITH SMW HEADLINES RATHER THAN A LONGER-FUSED GALE WARNING. SEAS AVERAGE 3-6FT SOUTH AND 5-7FT NORTH. WAVES AVERAGE 3-5FT. A POST-FRONTAL NLY SURGE WILL KEEP THE WATERS WITHIN SCA FLAGS THROUGH THU WITH WINDS AVERAGING 20-30KT. MEANWHILE...THE EXITING FRONT STALLS JUST OFF THE CAROLINA AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER FLORIDA. THE LOW TRAVELS NE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND STAYS EAST OF THE VA/NC OUTER BANKS THROUGH FRI. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST DURING THIS TIME...A STRONGER NLY SURGE IS ANTICIPATED THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY SLIDES ACROSS SRN ONTARIO DOWN ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN THE DEVELOPING LOW AND INCOMING HIGH WILL RESULT IN THE STRONGER NLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AVERAGING 30KT ALL WATERS EXCEPT ERN VA RIVERS. A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS 35-40KT MAY BE POSSIBLE FRI MORNING OVER SRN COASTAL WATERS (SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT) BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A THIRD PERIOD GALE WARNING DUE TO WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS. HAVE EXTENDED SCA FLAGS FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT ERN VA RIVERS DUE TO FREQUENT SCA CONDITIONS THIS EVENING THROUGH FRI. THERE WILL BE PERIODIC LULLS IN WIND SPEEDS AT TIMES BUT THEY WILL NOT BE LONG ENOUGH TO REFLECT A DECENT BREAK IN SCA CONDITIONS/HEADLINES. SEAS AVERAGE 4-5FT THU AND THU EVENING... BUILDING TO 5-8FT SRN COASTAL WATERS LATE THU NIGHT/FRI. WAVES ON CHES BAY AVERAGE 3-4FT...BUILDING TO 4-5FT LATE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY SLIDES OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE BY SAT NIGHT. WINDS/SEAS/WAVES SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CONDITIONS PRIMARILY FOR SAT ONLY BEFORE THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE SE COAST AND IMPACTS THE WATERS EARLY SUN MORNING INTO MON. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ048-060>062-064- 067>069-075-076-080>083-509>522. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-634-650- 652-654-656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ635>638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...LSA AVIATION...JDM MARINE...BMD

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