Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 261532 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1132 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure remains centered off the North Carolina coast through tonight, then pushes well off the Mid Atlantic coast on Friday. Low pressure slowly approaches from the south Saturday, and will move into the southeast coast Sunday through Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Late morning analysis indicating high pressure at the surface and aloft centered off well off the Carolina coast, bringing a light SSW flow to the local area. The upper ridge stays in place today and should limit convective coverage later this aftn and evening despite a significant increase in low level moisture/sfc dew pts as compared to yesterday at this time (mid 60s today vs. low-mid 50s 24 hrs ago). Skies are still mainly cloud-free, but area 12z soundings off to our W/SW at RNK and GSO suggest that convective temperatures will be in the mid 80s, with at least SCT if not a period of BKN cu developing later this aftn over the interior. This may keep highs from getting above the upper 80s for most areas, though still expect a few areas to hit 90 F (if any of our primary climate sites reach 90 F, it will be the first time this season (see climate section). High res models not very excited about tstm activity, and have opted to cap POPS at slight chc/20% and not occurring until late this aftn. Any sfc-based convection should wane rather quickly after sunset, but a weak upper level shortwave could bring some isolated showers and tstms through midnight and will have 20% POPS acrs mainly the nrn 1/2 of the CWA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Mostly clear to partly cloudy, warm and somewhat humid tngt with lows in the mid to upr 60s. Forecast soundings again not real enthusiastic about aftn tstm chcs for Fri aftn/evening, with just some minimal forcing due to lee trof and weak instability along/east of the mountains. So, will generally maintain ~20% POPS Fri aftn/evening. Highs on Fri in the mid to upr 80s, and an increase in sse flow should keep it a tad cooler than Thu along the cst with highs in the upr 70s to lwr 80s. Mostly clear to partly cloudy Fri ngt with lows in the lwr to mid 60s. For Sat, models remain in generally good agreement at keeping the deeper moisture associated with the low off the SE cst to our south. So, will keep only a minimal chc for aftn showers/tstms confined to extreme srn VA and ne NC, with a partly sunny sky south to a mostly sunny sky north. Highs in the mid to upr 80s inland/piedmont areas, and in the upr 70s to lwr 80s along the cst.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The forecast by late this weekend into the middle of next week will be largely dependent on the evolution of the low pressure system expected to develop off the southeast U.S. coast within the next few days. 12Z suite of model guidance supports the development of this low by this weekend but then greatly diverge on its eventual movement next week. The low could develop sub-tropical or tropical characteristics (see latest NHC TWO) as it drifts toward the southeast U.S. coast this weekend. Even if it does so, it`s impact would most likely be minimal across our FA...with the exception of increased shower/thunderstorm chances and possible elevated seas/increased rip current risk starting Sunday. For now, will continue to carry chc pops (30-50%) Sun-Tues...lowering a bit by next Wed. Temperatures, tempered by clouds and possible convection, should be near normal through the period. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Remaining mild at night due to influx of higher dew point air. Lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure off the Southeast coast will control the wx through Fri. Low pressure east of the Bahamas will approach the Carolinas during the weekend. Other than psbl lgt fg early this mrng...esp at RIC...and psbl isold tstm this eve invof RIC...VFR conds through 12z taf pd. FEW-SCT cu xpcd midday through mid aftn. SSW wnds aob 10 kt...though lcl sea breeze psbl at ORF/ECG (w/ direction to SE for a pd this aftn). Chcs for pcpn rmng very lo through Sat...then chcs for shras/tstms increase Sun/Mon.
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&& .MARINE... No headlines necessary through Sat. Hi pres sfc-aloft rmns nr the mdatlc wtrs through Fri...providing mnly SSW wnds aob 15 kt. Beyond that...SE wnds around 10 kt are expected Sat. Contg to monitor psbl lo pres development off SE conus cst this wknd...which may bring incrsd SE wnds and deteriorating conds ovr the local wtrs. For now...SE winds avgg 10-15 kt Sun/Mon...seas may approach 5 ft...esp off VA/NE NC. && .CLIMATE... The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41". May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at Richmond. Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond 1. 9.13" 1889 2. 8.98" 1873 3. 8.87" 1972 4. 8.67" 1886 5. 8.59" 2003 6. 8.41" 2016 (to date) * 1st 90 deg day has not yet occurred this year at climate sites: (Avg Date / Last Yr): * RIC: May 13 / May 12 * ORF: May 17 / May 12 * SBY: May 27 / Jun 1 && .EQUIPMENT... KAKQ Radar will remain offline for maintanence through Thursday. New parts are on order. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...ALB MARINE...ALB CLIMATE...AKQ EQUIPMENT...AKQ

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