Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 242238 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 538 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY...MOVING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING INVOF AND NNW OF LINGERING SFC BNDRY (IN COOL WEDGE) ACRS CNTRL VA...SO HAVE RAISED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS EVE. PREV DISCUSSION... LATEST WX ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO FEATURE A DEEPENING ~992MB SFC LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH TO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF COAST. MEANWHILE, SFC WARM/COASTAL FRONT WAS ORIENTED SW TO NE JUST E-NE OF THE I-85/US-1 CORRIDOR. RESIDUAL COOL-WEDGE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO PERSIST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, KEEPING TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S ALONG AND W OF THE RIC METRO AREA WITH TEMPERATURES NOW WELL INTO THE 60S OVER MUCH OF E & SE VA INTO NE NC. WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWING BROAD SWATH OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH FROM THE SE COAST ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE LOCAL AREA. PCPN HAS BECOME A BIT MORE SCT IN NATURE AS THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NE AND MID-UPPER DRY SLOT PIVOTS FROM THE THE WESTERN CAROLINAS SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE TO KEEP OVC WORDING THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT. REGARDING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL, HAVE CONFINED THUNDER WORDING TO THE WARM SECTOR ALONG COASTAL SE VA AND NE NC, WHERE TEMPS ARE AOA 70 AT 20Z. SPC HAS ADDED THE SE IN A SLIGHT SEVERE RISK FOR TONIGHT IN THE PRESENCE OF A WARM AND MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS AND A STRONG 925-700MB WIND FIELD. HOWEVER, DESPITE STRONG MID LVL SHEAR/0-1KM EHI PARAMETERS...EXPECT THUNDER WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE ALBEMARLE. THUS, WL RETAIN SLIGHT CHC T OVER SE VA AND THE SE COASTAL PLAIN, MAINLY FOR THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. HRRR AND NAM HAVE PERFORMED WELL THIS AFTN, BOTH IN THEIR DEPICTION OF THE WEDGE HOLDING ON INLAND AND THE PCPN FIELD THIS AFTN. HI RES MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A BRIEF LULL IN PCPN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL DRIER AIR PUSHING ACROSS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE W LATE THIS EVENING AND MOVES W-E ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 02-06Z TONIGHT. A BRIEF PD OF SCT SHRAS THEN POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED PCPN CHARACTER TO SHOWERS TONIGHT, WITH STEADIER RAIN COMING TO AN END INLAND NOW, AND BY MID TO LATE EVENING ALONG THE COAST. DROPPED POPS OFF DURING AFOREMENTIONED LULL PERIOD EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH MORE SCATTERED RAIN SHRAS TO PERSIST LATER IN THE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT...RAPIDLY DIMINISHING BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER 06Z TOWARDS DAWN CHRISTMAS MORNING. BY EARLY EVENING, EXPECT TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE 50-55 WELL INLAND...MID/UPPER 60S FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS TO AROUND 70 SE. THESE HIGHS WILL BE NEAR DAILY RECORDS...SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS. GIVEN ONLY WEAK CAA, EXPECT TEMPS TO BE SLOW TO DROP OFF OVERNIGHT, LIKELY LINGERING IN THE 50S AND 60S FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION CHRISTMAS DAY. MEANWHILE, SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W-SW. A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN A MILD START TO CHRISTMAS MORNING, WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR MOST. THE SKY SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT, BECOMING MAINLY SUNNY WITH SCT CU BY AFTN ON A BREEZY W FLOW. AGAIN, ONLY WEAK CAA WILL BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPE WARMING, WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS SLOWLY RISING INTO THE U50S TO LOW 60S CHRISTMAS DAY. CLEAR/SEASONABLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. CLEAR SKY/LGT WINDS WILL BRING SEASONABLY CHILLY LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IMMEDIATELY OFF THE COAST LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS, LIMITED MIXING/LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY CONDITIONS. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S, WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE L-M 30S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LEANING TWD A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HI PRES WILL SLIDE FARTHER OUT TO SEA SAT NGT...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LO PRES AREA START TO APPROACH FM THE W. THAT LO WILL MOVE ENE ALNG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ACRS SRN PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE SUN INTO MON NGT. AT THIS TIME...HAVE 40-50% POPS ACRS THE AREA SUN THRU MON...DIMINISHING TO 30% THEN 20% FOR MON NGT AND TUE. IF THE LO PRES TRACK IS FARTHER S...THIS COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO SOME WINTRY PCPN WITH THE WAVE LATE SUN NGT INTO MON. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST RAIN EVERYWHERE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 SUN...IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S MON...IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S TUE...AND MAINLY IN THE LWR TO MID 40S WED. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPR 30S TO UPR 40S SUN AND MON MORNGS...IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 TUE MORNG...AND IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S WED MORNG. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 12Z...ANOTHER BAND OF RAIN WAS PROGRESSING INTO THE CWA FROM THE SW. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VARIABLE BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY IFR OR LOWER THIS MORNING. A BIT OF IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AREA BECOMES WARM SECTORED BUT THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE MAINLY IFR IS STILL EXCEPT AT ORF AND ECG. CONFIDENCE IN THE DEGREE OF IMPROVEMENT IS MARGINAL. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND A SLGT CHC OF THUNDER (THIS PCPN NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF). CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM THE WEST IN THE MORNING AS WINDS TURN TO WESTERLY. OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER. A CHC FOR RAIN RETURNS SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. && .MARINE... LEAVING SCA`S INTACT FOR THE CHES BAY/LWR JAMES RIVER/CURRITUCK SND AND THE CSTL WTRS THRU THU AFTN. STRONG S WINDS ALREADY OCCURRING OVR MOST OF THE WTRS LATE THIS AFTN IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT WHICH WAS STARTING TO PUSH ACRS THE MTNS TO THE W. THE FRONT WILL SWING ACRS THE WTRS LATE TNGT INTO EARLY THU MORNG...THEN QUICKLY MOVES OUT TO SEA DURING THU. S WINDS WILL BECOME SW THEN W DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THEN TURNING TO THE NW OR N AND DIMINISHING THU EVENG/THU NGT...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO/OVR THE AREA. HI PRES WILL BE RIGHT OVR THE WTRS DURING FRI...THEN SLIDES OFF THE CST DURING SAT. LO PRES MOVNG ENE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN AFFECT THE WTRS SUN AFTN INTO MON NGT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... TIDAL DEPARTURES AVERAGING 1-1.5FT ABOVE NORMAL, AND HV EXCEEDED LOW END MINOR THRESHOLDS IN THE ONGOING AFTN HIGH TIDE CYCLE AT BISHOPS HEAD. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8PM AS TIDE CYCLE CONTINUES UNTIL 5-7P AROUND CAMBRIDGE, WHERE WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLD. WATER LEVELS SHOULD DROP OFF POST FRONTAL FOR AM TIDE CYCLE ON CHRISTMAS DAY, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE EXTENSION/RE-ISSUE OF ADVY. && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY 12/24: RICHMOND.......71 F (1988) NORFOLK........75 F (1891) SALISBURY......67 F (1990) ELIZ CITY NC...75 F (1990) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021>023. NC...NONE. VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-049- 060>076-079>083. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>634- 650-652-654-656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ638. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MAM NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...ESS MARINE...TMG TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE...

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