Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 151950 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 350 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...BEFORE CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH THE MSAS ANALYSIS/SFC OBS INDICATING A COLD FRONT TRAILING BACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE IS WEAKENING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY MOVING OFFSHORE. CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LINGER OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA IN VICINITY OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SKY COVER BECOMES PARTLY SUNNY NE OF I-64...AND MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. TEMPERATURES AS OF 19Z/3PM AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND REACH THE ERN SHORE TOWARD SUNRISE. THE PRIMARY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL N OF THE LOCAL AREA. GIVEN THIS...FORECAST POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 20% (BEGINNING AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT). THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ERN SHORE...WHERE 30-40% POPS ARE FORECAST (MAINLY BETWEEN 09-12Z) AS A LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH PASSING TO THE N. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S N...TO THE LOW/MID 60S SE UNDER A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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LOW-LEVEL DRYING IN A NW WIND IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COASTAL SE VA/NE NC WHERE THE TAIL END OF THE TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE COAST...AND THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO NE. 20-30% POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE FAR NRN COUNTIES/ATLANTIC COAST...TO THE LOW/MID 80S OVER INTERIOR S-CENTRAL VA/NE NC. HIGH PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL BUILD N OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER HIGH N OF THE GREAT LAKES THEN BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT NE FLOW AND RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS OVER SRN PORTIONS...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER NRN PORTIONS. NOT MUCH FORCING IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SO WIDESPREAD SHRA ARE UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...A 20% POP WILL BE FORECAST OVER FAR SRN/SE VA AND NE NC TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SHRA CREEPING N FOR ERN NC. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50 N...TO LOW 60S SE...WITH LOW/MID 50S N LOW 60S SE THURSDAY MORNING.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... INITIAL SFC HI PRES BREAKS DOWN/WEAKENS WED NGT...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A SECOND/STRONGER SFC HI PRES AREA BUILDING SE FM SE CANADA (THU INTO SAT). LONG PD OF ONSHORE/NE WNDS BEGINNING THU...LASTING INTO THE WKND. HAVE INCRSD CLDNS/POPS SLGTLY OVR THE RGN...THOUGH RIGHT NOW...APRS THAT WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL UNLIKELY. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S THU...FRI...AND SAT MORNGS...AND RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S THU...FRI...AND SAT...AND IN THE UPR 70S/NEAR 80 SUN. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... BKN-OVC CIG AROUND 3-4 KFT AGL WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF KRIC INTO SRN VA AND NE NC THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. CEILINGS DROP BELOW 3 KFT AGL AFTER 16/0500Z AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES/SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THEN OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS A FEW HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER SUNRISE...WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING AFTER ROUGHLY 16/1400Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THE REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...SLOWLY VEERING TO THE W-NW BY MID-MORNING ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .MARINE... NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. A FRNTL BNDRY REMAINS SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA CST TDA WITH SFC HI PRES IN PLACE ACROSS THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO LGT ONSHORE FLOW (AOB 10 KT) WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. WEAK TROF OF LO PRES PASSES THRU ON TUE...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE FRNT AS 10-15 KT WINDS VEER TO THE N/NW. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NE FLOW BEGINS TUE NGT...LASTING THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL APPROACH AND MAY EXCEED 5 FT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB LONG TERM...ALB/TMG AVIATION...BMD/MAS MARINE...MAS

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