Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 221120 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 720 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure along with a weak frontal boundary will remain stalled along or just off the Southeast coast into Friday morning. High pressure builds over the local area later Friday into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Surface low pressure is along the SC coast this morning with a stationary frontal boundary situated along the NC/SC coasts. Meanwhile, sfc high pressure covers the Northeast. The coastal features will remain nearly stationary today while high pressure pushes east to the New England coast. The good news is that the heaviest rain that we`ve been dealing with the past few days is done. Have cancelled all flood watch/warnings. The bad news is that the rain is not completely finished and additional intermittent rain/showers will impact mainly the lower 2/3rds of the FA throughout today. Will continue likely pops through southside VA thru 9am or so...tapering off to slight chc pops across far northern portions of the FA and low chance pops across coastal NE NC. Will then have high chc to low end likely pops (30-60%) across the lower 2/3rds of the FA for the rest of today...and mostly dry across the far N/NW as high pressure wins out. Remaining cloudy/mostly cloudy today with high temperatures close to normal (upr 70s to low 80s). && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The combination of nrn stream energy and the coastal low/associated upr trough weakening, will finally result in pops shifting farther south beginning tonight but especially Fri/Fri night. Will carry slight chc to low end chc pops (20-30%) across sern areas only. Surface high pressure will build over the by region Fri night for dry wx everywhere. Lows tonight in the 60s to low 70s. Highs Friday from the upr 70s coast to the low/mid 80s inland. Lows Friday night in the 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A backdoor cold front drops across the region during Saturday. Meanwhile, a trough digs over the Northeast US through Sunday as an upper level ridge builds over the Mississippi Valley. That ridge then slowly amplifies and pushes east for the first half of next week. 00z/Thu suit of models have continued to trend weaker w/the associated cold front completely through the area on Sunday, with very little rainfall expected coincident with the frontal passage. Surface high pressure is progged to become centered over eastern Canada with a piece of the High ridging down into the northern mid- Atlantic states Sunday night into Tue (rather than actually building over the local area). While deep moisture will be pushed south of the local area, this pattern suggests that the sensible weather will still feature a persistent easterly low level flow with skies to avg partly to mostly cloudy Sunday (and perhaps Mon/Tue as well). Have also lingered 20% POPS for much of the area Sunday, shifting to the Sw zones Sun night/Mon. Highs range from the mid/upr 70s Eastern Shore to the low/mid 80s elsewhere Saturday. Highs will average in the 70s with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s Sun-Wed.
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&& .AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The heaviest of the rain appears to have come to an end this morning. MVFR cigs continue through the day with some intermittent rain...except should see some VFR conditions develop at KRIC/KSBY this afternoon. Winds across the area are generally onshore around 10-15 knots with occasional gusts. Outlook: Gradual improving conditions are expected by Friday as high pressure continues to build just north of the area. VFR conditions can be expected by Saturday. Another frontal boundary approaches the area Sunday into Monday. && .MARINE... Latest obs reflect ENE flow across the waters this morning. Pressure gradient remains compressed between high pressure well north into New England and weakening low pressure lingers along/just off the SE coast. Onshore east winds linger in SCA range through the mid morning for the middle and lower Chesapeake Bay, with sub-SCA 10- 15kt winds gradually drop off from this aftn through tonight as pressure gradient slackens a bit further. Waves subside to 1-2 ft in the bay, but linger in 3-4 ft range this aftn in shorter 5-6 second wind waves through this afternoon. Winds turn more northerly and pick up a bit by Fri night as weak low finally nudges offshore. A weak Cold front drops across the waters late Friday Night into Saturday, stalling just south of the waters Sat night and Sunday before sliding south into the Carolinas on Monday. CAA surge behind the front appears minimal...but SCA for hazardous seas possible over the weekend as longer period swell begins to mix in Friday night through Sunday. && .HYDROLOGY... The Cashie River at Windsor has crested near 14.5 ft (major flooding begins at 13 ft) this morning and will linger at this level into the afternoon before slowly subsiding. The Cashie River is not expected to fall below flood stage until early Friday afternoon. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 22Z, tidal departures avg +0.5 to 1.0 ft over the marine area, so despite significant flooding from heavy rainfall across portions of Hampton Roads and northeast NC, actual coastal/tidal flooding has been minimal from this event with most sites falling short of Minor Flood thresholds by around 0.5 ft. Have allowed the Coastal Flood Advisory for the mid/upper James River zones to expire as High Tide has passed. Additional tidal flooding does not look likely for Thu but some areas (especially the upper James River may reach minor flooding again). Feel it is too marginal at this point for an advisory so will allow next shift to determine need for a statement or possible an advisory if departures were to increase more than is currently expected. For now, departures expected to continue at +0.5 to +1.0 ft through Thu/Fri. One explanation for the rather low departures may be due to water that has been able to exit the Bay into the Ocean fairly efficiently despite the persistent onshore flow. Will continue to monitor however, as tidal anomalies may build nwd through the Bay by Thu aftn which could lead to some marginal tidal flooding by that time farther up into the Bay. The beach hazard statement has been discontinued, with a moderate risk for Rips expected for Thu. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ634-656- 658. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ631- 632. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652-654. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...LKB/MAM AVIATION...JDM/MAS MARINE...MAM HYDROLOGY... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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