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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201039
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
639 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains centered northwest of the area through the
end of the week. Tropical Cyclone Jose will continue to track
northeast to a position off the southern New England coast later
today, then meander there through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TS Jose is currently located about 200 miles south of Nantucket Mass
and moving NE at 9 mph. The effects on sensible wx continue to pull
slowly ne and away from the area today. In its wake, subsidence
results in a mstly sunny and unseasonably warm day. Watching the
moisture across the KY valley. Latest guidance suggests this
moisture dissipates as it crosses the mts after 18Z. Even the
high res data suggests little if any convection makes it into
the swrn most zones. Kept the forecast dry with a silent 14 pop
across the swrn zones. H85 temps arnd 16C results in highs btwn
85-90 except low-mid 80s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Models suggest any evening convection to the west slides SW of the
fa then dissipates after 00Z across the NC piedmont. Otw, mstly clr
to pt cldy and warm tonight. Lows in the mid 60s to lwr 70s.

Any convection from the lingering moisture stays west and south of
the fa Thursday as high pressure continues to dominate into the
weekend. Expect pt to mstly sunny days with mstly clr to pt cldy
nights. Highs Thursday and Friday in the low-mid 80s except 75-80 at
the beaches. Lows from the lwr 60s NW to lwr 70s SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds over the ern Great Lakes and NE CONUS early
next week as the remnant low (Jose) slowly circulates ESE of
New England. Other than periods of SC off the ocean (by the late
in the weekend-early next week) esp at the coast...expect dry wx
with above normal temps.

Highs Sat-Sun in the mid-upr 80s except lwr 80s at the coast. Highs
Mon and Tue in the upr 70s-mid 80s. Lows in the low-mid 60s inland,
upr 60s to around 70F at the coast.

Extended models continue to struggle with the tropical systems into
early next week. It may depend on where Jose`s low tracks which may
eventually help to steer Maria. The latest GFS and to a certain point
the ECMWF has Maria on a similar track to what Jose did (i.e.
moving north along the eastern seaboard my mid week, but how
close to the coast???). To early for anything specific, but we
may be doing this all over again for Maria next week. Stay
tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Tropical Storm Jose will continue to lift northward through the
night allowing for improving aviation conditions. MVFR ceilings
across the northeast (including SBY) will lift over the next
couple of hours, improving to VFR after 08Z. Mainly dry/VFR
conditions are expected for the remainder of the forecast
period. An isolated shower or thunderstorm may be possible over
far western portions of the region late Wednesday afternoon.
Winds will be out of the N/NW around 5 to 10 knots for much of
the forecast period.

Outlook: Generally VFR/dry conditions are anticipated through the
extended period as high pressure builds into the region.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Tropical Storm Jose will continue to lift north of the waters
this morning before moving off the northeast coast later today. Jose
will linger off the northeast coast through the weekend before
dissipating. Swells from distant Hurricane Maria will begin to
impact the waters by this weekend.

7 AM EDT Update...Small Craft Advisory for the majority of the
Chesapeake Bay has been allowed to expire. Winds will continue
to decrease this morning as Jose moves away from the region.
Also extended the SCA for the mouth of the Bay until 10 AM due
to the continued potential of waves up to 4 feet.

Previous Discussion:
Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through 7 AM EDT for
the Bay and through Wednesday evening for the Ocean. Seas
currently average 6 to 8 feet nearshore and 9 to 11 feet out 20
nm. Waves over the Bay average 2 to 4 feet with waves up to 4 to
5 feet at the mouth of the Bay. Winds over the waters generally
range from 15 to 20 knots with occasional gusts up to 30 knots.
Marine conditions are expected to continue to improve through
this morning as weak high pressure begins to build in from the
northwest. Sub-SCA conditions are expected Wednesday through
Thursday for a majority of the waters except for lingering 5 ft+
seas on the coastal waters. Seas will once again ramp up Friday
and into the weekend as swells from distant Hurricane Maria
begin to impact the region. Additional Small Craft Advisories
will likely be be needed for the coastal waters by this weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal departures continue to avg +1.75 to +2.25 ft over the
lower Bay and ocean, tapered to only about +1.0 to +1.5 ft in
the upper Bay. Will continue coastal flood advisories for all
areas today except a warning over the ocean side of the Lower MD
Eastern Shore and both sides of the VA Eastern Shore where
moderate flooding is expected in some areas. Additional minor
flooding will be possible later tonight, but given the
uncertainty did not extend the headlines out through this period
yet.

High risk for rip currents for all beaches adjacent to coastal
waters continues today as swell/nearshore waves will be slow to
subside.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs for 9/20:
 RIC...95 in 2005
 ORF...97 in 1895
 SBY...90 in 1983
 ECG...93 in 1942

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ024-
     025.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     MDZ021>023.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for NCZ102.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for
     VAZ089-090-093.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for
     VAZ095>097-523>525.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for VAZ098.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ099-
     100.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
     VAZ075-077-078-084>086.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ634.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...ALB/MPR
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...AJB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...