Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 152105 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 405 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure departs to the northeast by tonight. A weak cold front will drop across the region early Thursday, followed by high pressure returning late Thursday into Friday. A strong cold front will affect the area Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... High pressure remains centered over New England this afternoon, extending southwestward into the Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, a weak coastal trough is situated off the VA Capes and NC OBX. Low stratus is very evident on satellite this afternoon, covering much of the local area in an in-situ wedge/CAD setup. This has kept temps in check today with some locations in the Piedmont holding in the upr 40s to low 50s. Not expecting any pcpn to reach the coast this aftn/eve, despite the coastal trough/weak sfc low backing a bit more to the west before lifting north overnight. Sfc high pressure retreats NE to E of New England tonight as low pressure swings through the upper Great Lakes. A cold front approaches from the NW and drops across the region very late tonight-early Thu. That front will be moisture will carry no worse than 20-40% PoP across the far N/NE this evening, then over the Eastern Shore between 06z-12z Thu (highest PoPs from the Northern Neck to the the MD Eastern Shore). Mostly cloudy tonight with lows mainly ranging from the upr 30s to mid 40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Warmer and becoming mostly sunny Thurs, aided by dry WNW flow behind the departing cold front. Highs Thurs in the low to mid 60s. Mostly clear and colder again Thu night as sfc high pressure builds in from the upper Midwest. Lows 30-35 inland and on the lower MD ern the low/mid 40s in SE VA-NE NC. Mostly sunny Friday as dry and cool high pressure builds over the area. Highs in the low to mid 50s. The high slides offshore Friday night allowing return flow to setup on Saturday with mild temps and moisture advection. Lows Friday night in the mid/upr 30s inland to the low/mid 40s coast. Highs Saturday in the low/mid 60s...possibly reaching the upr 60s to around 70 in the south. Clouds will gradually increase through the day. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Still expected a strong cold front to cross the area Sat night. PoPs are 60% areawide Sat night with guidance coming into better alignment regarding the timing of the front. Low temps mainly in the mid 40s to lwr 50s. The rain will push offshore fairly quickly Sun morning as the front advances fast, leaving seasonable wx with highs in the 50s, and breezy conditions behind the front. Maintained a dry forecast thereafter for the extended period with high pressure building over the eastern CONUS. Highs temps in the 40s Mon increase to the 50s Tue and Wed.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MVFR stratus (1.5-2.5 kft) has developed at all TAF sites this afternoon and will linger thru the evening. Mostly cloudy but becoming VFR by late tonight as a cold front approaches from the W...then a mainly dry frontal passage Thu morning. WNW winds become gusty Thu (peak wind gusts 20-25 kt)...waning Thu night as VFR conditions continue. VFR conditions Fri into Sat...w/ increased potential of degraded flight conditions (and at least SCT SHRAs late Sat- early Sun w/ the next cold frontal passage. && .MARINE...
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Latest sfc analysis shows ~1025 mb high pressure centered over the Canadian Maritimes with low pressure over the Great Lakes region. Following sub-SCA winds tonight through the first half of the day Thu, W/NW winds will increase Thu aftn and evening following the fropa associated with the aforementioned low tracking east. The SCA over coastal wtrs has been extended through the end of the third period, for 4-6 ft seas each period, and 15-25 kt sustained winds Thu night. Expect gusts up to 30 kt there, with a few gusts up to 35 kt psbl by Thu evening. 15-25 kt winds with gusts up to 30 kt also expected over the Bay. Will hold off on any headlines attm over the rivers and Sound, but with it being third being will re-evaluate tonight as conditions will be more marginal there. Sfc high pressure then builds in for Fri and with decreasing CAA, winds/waves/seas will decrease. Could still be some lingering 5 ft seas over the ocean into Fri aftn however. A cold front crosses the area Sat night, and with a strong pressure gradient expect strong SCA or even gale conditions.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...ALB/JDM MARINE...MAS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.