Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 280757 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 357 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... HI PRES ALOFT BEGINS TO EXPAND A BIT FARTHER E INTO THE WRN OH/TN VLYS BY LT TDA...AS A WK FNTL BNDRY DISSIPATES JUST N OF THE FA. NW FLO ALOFT CONTS...W/ WK SFC HI PRES JUST OFF THE CST. ISOLD SHRAS/TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FM THE CNTRL BAY ON W TO NR/JUST N OF FVX ATTM. WILL BE HOLDING ONTO SLGT CHC/LO CHC POPS OVR MOST OF NRN/CNTRL AREAS OF FA THIS MRNG. XPCG ANY AFTN CONVECTION TO BE INITIATED PRIMARILY OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN W OF I 95...AND PTNTLLY DRIFTS EWD DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVE. WILL CARRY 30-50% POPS W...LWRG TO SLGT CHC (10-20%) POPS ALG THE CST. HI TEMPS FM THE M80S AT THE BEACHES TO THE U80S-ARND 90F ELSW. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION SLO TO DISSIPATE TNGT...ESP W OF I 95. OTRW VRB CLDS-PARTLY CLOUDY. W/ LO TEMPS 70-75F. WEDNESDAY... UPR LVL RIDGING CONTS TO EXPAND EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT ANY AFTN CONVECTION WHILE MAX TEMPS WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES. HAVE CHC POPS (25-30%) ALONG AND WEST OF I-95. PARTLY SUNNY W/ HI TEMPS IN THE U80S-L90S...WITH L-M80S AT THE BEACHES. MILD WED NGT W/ LO TEMPS IN THE L-M70S. THURSDAY... UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...CHC POPS (30-40%) WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTN...LOWERING TO ~20% AT THE COAST. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE L90S...EXCEPT 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... PATTERN INITIALLY BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SW CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY CANADA. GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRI/SAT...THEN FLATTEN OUT SUN/MON. ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES...MODELS SHOW A GENERAL PERSISTENCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. APPEARS THAT A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI...QUESTION IS WITH REGARD TO HOW FAR SOUTH IT MAKES IT BEFORE STALLING/DISSIPATING. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A CLIMO-TYPE OF SCENARIO WHERE THE FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER FAR SRN VA/NC LATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI AM WITH THE FRONT...THEN WILL KEEP CHC POPS (30- 40%) ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FA FRI-SUN WITH THE FRONT STALLED TO OUR SOUTH AND THE OPPORTUNITY FOR LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S AND LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO WED MORNG...WITH SCTD SHOWERS OR TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EVENG MAINLY AT RIC. MAINLY VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL LATE THU INTO FRI WHEN A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO AND ACRS THE AREA BRINGING A BETTER CHC FOR PCPN AND POSSIBLE LWR CIGS/VSBYS. && .MARINE... WK SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS ALONG/JUST OFF THE COAST WITH WEAK SFC TROUGHING INLAND ACRS THE COASTAL PLAIN. S/SE WINDS AVG 10- 15 KT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND WILL GENLY BE A BIT LIGHTER TUE/WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE AREA. WAVES OVER THE BAY THRU MIDWEEK WILL AVG 1-2 FT...W/ 2-3 FT SEAS OVER COASTAL WATERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE THU...THEN STALLS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE WEEK. SSW WINDS AOB 15 KT EXPECTED THU-FRI. WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-4 FT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM/SAM SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...TMG MARINE...LKB/TMG

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