Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 301843 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 143 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will approach from the west today, then pushes across the Mid Atlantic region tonight into Thursday morning. High pressure slowly builds into the area Thursday through Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Late this morning, upper low pressure was located over MN/WI, with sfc low pressure cntrd over Lake Superior and nrn Lake Michigan. A cold front extended fm the low swrd thru ern IN and wrn KY/TN. Warm front and associated showers acrs portions of the area earlier this morning, was moving N of the CWA late this morning. Have adjusted Pops downward a bit acrs most of the area for this aftn into early this evening, based on latest rdr trends, timing of cold front pushing E, and HRRR reflectivity fcst. Southerly winds and possible breaks in the clouds, will help temps climb into the 70s over most of the region. Have slgt chc of thunder all locations. The cold front will approach the extrm wrn counties by early this evening. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... The cold front pushes across the FA and off the coast tonight into early Thu morning...w/ shras (isold tstms). Gusty winds and heavy downpours a possibility with any tstms. Clearing out fm WNW to ESE late Wed ngt into Thu morning...as WNW flow behind the front ushers drier air into the region. Lows tonight fm the u40s-around 50F NW to the around 60F SE. Dry/cooler wx expected Thu thru Fri...as W flow dominates the area. Sfc hi pres gradually builds toward the region fm the WNW. Generally mostly sunny both days...w/ highs Thu in the l-m60s... highs Fri in the l-m50s. Lows Thu ngt fm the l-m30s to around 40F. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Cool high pressure is expected to be centered from the Mississippi Valley through the Southeast Conus Friday night into Saturday. High pressure builds over the Mid-Atlantic region Saturday night into Sunday as a split flow pattern develops aloft, with a srn stream system tracking along the Gulf Coast States, and a nrn stream wave diving into the Upper Midwest. This will result in dry conditions under a mainly clear sky, although high clouds may increase by Sunday. Temperatures are expected to be slightly below seasonal averages, but within -1 st dev. Forecast lows Friday night and Saturday night range from the low 30s inland to the mid/upper 30s along the coast, with highs Saturday/Sunday in the upper 40s to low 50s. GFS/ECMWF keep the srn stream system south of the region Sunday night into Monday. However, the ECMWF is more aggressive with the nrn stream wave, but the net result may be minimal with respect to sensible weather as the system will be moisture starved. High pressure returns later Monday into Monday night, with low pressure approaching from the west during the Tuesday/Tuesday night timeframe. At this time the 29/12z GFS is about 12hrs faster than the 29/12z ECMWF. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 18z...A cold front extends from low pressure over northern Michigan south across western Ohio to the Alabama Gulf Coast. This front will move across the Appalachians this evening and reach the Mid Atlantic Coast overnight. Showers ended over the area this morning. More showers and a few thunderstorms were over West Virginia at midday. VFR with occasional MVFR ceilings were observed at the TAF sites. Showers will accompany the cold front late this evening and overnight. There will also be a chance for thunderstorms. MVFR and brief IFR can be expected during precipitation tonight. South to southwest winds will gust to between 20 and 25 knots this afternoon. Winds will continue gusty at times until frontal passage and slowly veer behind the front. Winds may gust to around 15 to 20 knots from the west and northwest during Thursday. OUTLOOK...High pressure builds from the west through Friday and settles over the region Saturday and Sunday. VFR and dry conditions can be expected. There will be a chance for rain Sunday night and Monday as weak low pressure moves from the Lower Mississippi Valley and across the Southeast States. && .MARINE... SCAs remain in effect for the coastal waters this morning. SCAs begin for the Bay, rivers and sound at Noon. A cold front is expected to push through the Ohio Valley today and then push off the Mid-Atlantic Coast late tonight. The wind will increase from the south at 15-25 kt by this afternoon and continue into this evening. The wind then becomes westerly at 10-15kt (minimal CAA) behind the front late tonight into Thursday. Waves will build to 3-4 ft on the Ches Bay with 5-7 ft seas. A nw wind of 10-15kt/15-20kt ocean should prevail Friday into Saturday as high pressure builds across the Southeast Conus and low pressure persists over Atlantic Canada. High pressure builds over the region Saturday night into Sunday. Seas subside from 3-4ft to 2-3ft, with ~2ft waves in the Bay. && .CLIMATE... Well above normal temperatures are forecast Wednesday. Some temperatures will approach record highs. Records highs: Richmond: 77 (1933) Norfolk: 79 (2001) Salisbury: 74 (1933) Elizabeth City: 80 (2001) Wallops Island: 74 (1991) Record high mins challenged: Salisbury 61 (2001) (tied as of this morning) Elizabeth City 60 (1934) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for ANZ630>634. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ654-656- 658. Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ650- 652. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Thursday for ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...LSA MARINE...JDM CLIMATE...

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