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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 292058
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
358 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1006 MB LO PRES CENTERED OVER THE ERN
GREAT LAKES WITH ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRNT STRETCHING DOWN TO THE
SSW. SOME LIGHT PCPN IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF A WEAK ASSOCIATED WARM
FRNT NOW OVER WRN VA. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT SOME RAIN
AND SLEET IS PSBL OVER WRN AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA THRU ERLY THIS
EVENG. THE COLD FRNT SLIDES THRU THE AREA LATE TNGT/FRI
MORNG...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME PCPN OVR ERN AREAS DUE
TO THE FRNT AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX DESPITE LITTLE
MOISTURE. LO TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 30S.

FOR FRI...DRY WX AND DECREASING CLOUDINESS AS THE FRNT PUSHES
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND STRONG HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. MAIN
STORY ON FRI WILL BE THE WIND...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH NE AREAS
AND 30-35 MPH SW AREAS. WITH HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID
40S...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LWR 30S MUCH OF THE
DAY OVER MOST AREAS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
DRY WX CONTINUES INTO FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS THE SFC HI SLIDES IN FM
THE W AND BCMS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SE STATES.
EXPECT WLY FLOW SAT WITH A MSTLY SUNNY SKY AND HI TEMPS ONLY IN
THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S UNDER CONTINUED CAA.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER APPROACHING STORM SYSTM WHICH WILL
IMPACT THE AREA SUN THRU MON. KEY PLAYERS ARE AN APPROACHING NRN
STREAM TROF OVR THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS SUN AND SRN STREAM ENERGY
OVER MEXICO. SUBSEQUENT SFC LO DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR OVER THE TN
VALLEY LATE SUN. THE SFC LO WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN AS IT
APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC SUN NIGHT...WITH ITS EXACT TRACK
IMPORTANT IN DETERMINING PTYPES THROUGHOUT THE REGION. AS FOR 12Z
DATA...THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE
GFS AND TAKES THE LO DIRECTLY OVER VA...WHILE THE CMC HAS SHIFTED
SOUTH LEADING TO A COLDER SOLUTION. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN SOME RUN-
TO-RUN CONSISTENCIES WITH THESE MODELS AS WELL. A BLENDED SOLUTION
CONTINUES TO FAVOR A RA/IP/SN MIX AT THE ONSET SUN MORNG OVER N
AND W AREAS...BCMG MSTLY RAIN SUN AFTN/EVENG WITH SOME SNOW MIXED
IN OVER NRN AREAS. AS THE LO PASSES E OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO
MON...THICKNESSES WILL FALL AND SNOW WILL BE MORE LIKELY OVER MORE
OF THE AREA...WITH STILL PLAIN RAIN FOR EXTREME SE VA/NE NC. THE
PCPN THEN ENDS FM W TO E ON MON WITH HI TEMPS ONLY IN THE LO 30S
N TO LO 40S S UNDER STRONG CAA. THE GENERAL IDEA WITH THIS STORM
IS THAT THE CURRENT TRACK FAVORS MAINLY A RAIN EVENT FOR MUCH OF
THE FA WITH SOME WINTRY PCPN MIXED IN AT THE BEGINNING AND END OF
THE EVENT ESPECIALLY OVER N AND W AREAS. THIS IS STILL SEVERAL
DAYS OUT AND SLIGHT CHANGES IN THE TRACK WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE
OVER WHERE THE RA/SN LINE DEVELOPS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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ANY PCPN ASSCTD WITH MON STORM IS OFFSHORE BY 00Z TUE. CLRG SKIES
AND COLD MON NITE AS 1030 MB HIGH APPRCHS FA. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO
L20S SRN MOST CNTYS.

RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVRHD ERLY TUE THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE. MSTLY SUNNY
AND COLD. HIGHS L-M30S. CLDS INCRS TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF NXT SYSTM.
KEPT IT DRY FOR NOW AS ANY PCPN SHUD STAY S&W OF FA THRU 12Z WED.
LOWS MAY OCCUR IN THE EVE THEN STDY OR RISE AFTR MIDNIGHT AS A S
WIND DVLPS. LOWS IN THE 20S TO L30S SERN AREAS.

MODELS SOLNS DIFFER A BIT WITH THE MID WEEK SYSTM. GFS TAKES SFC LOW
NE INTO THE GT LAKES RGN WITH THE TRAILING CDFRNT PROGGED ACROSS THE
FA WED NITE. IT ALSO DVLPS A LOW ON SRN END OF BNDRY. THIS ALLOWS
SAID BNDRY TO STALL JUST OFFSHORE ALLOWING THE LOW TO TRACK NE ALONG
THE SERN US COAST BUT STAY JUST SOUTH OF AKQ FA. THIS SCENARIO
BRINGS MILDER AIR IN AHEAD OF THE BNDRY FOR MAINLY RAIN...BUT A MIX
WITH THEN CHANGE TO SNOW WED NITE AS CAA DVLPS BEHIND IT. ECMWF HAS
THE LOW GOING INTO THE GT LAKES BUT SHOWS A STRNGR AND WETTER SRN
STREAM LOW MOVG NE ALONG THE MID ATLNTC COAST BEFORE LIFTING NE AWAY
FROM RGN THURS. WENT WITH CHC (LIQUID) POPS WED. MAY START OFF AS A
BRIEF RAIN/SLEET MIX ACROSS PIEDMONT ERLY DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE
PCPN MOVES IN. HIGHS IN THE 40S. WENT WITH CHC POPS FOR A RAIN TO
SNOW SCENARIO WED NIGHT FOR NOW. THIS A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE CALL
AND WILL LIKELY ALL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE WHEN
THE COLD AIR OVRSPRDS THE RGN. LOWS M20S-L30S.

COLD WITH SOME LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHWRS ALONG THE COAST THU MORN.
OTW...CLRD AND COLD AS STRNG HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS
M30S-L40S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW. A SOUTHERLY WIND AVERAGING 5-10KT IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNDER BKN-OVC MID/HIGH CLOUDS
(CIGS AOA 15KFT).

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH ONLY A
MINIMAL CHC OF -SHRA MAINLY AT SBY...WHICH COULD END AS A MIX OF
-RASN. CIGS WILL AVG 5-10 K FT. A GUSTY NW WIND IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT (MAYBE AS HIGH AS 35 KT AT KSBY) AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THAT AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
A MORE MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
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EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE INTO MARGINAL SCA LEVELS LATER THIS EVE
AHEAD OF APPRCHG CD FRNT. ONLY CHANGE TO THE SCA HEADLINE WAS TO
ADD THE LWR ZONE AND MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY. MAIN HEADLINE WILL BE
THE GALES FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS STRNG CAA DVLPS BEHIND THE FRNT AND
AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRS APPRCHG FROM THE WEST. WENT AHEAD AND EXTNDD
THE GALE HEADLINE THRU SAT MORNING OVR THE MD CSTL WTRS AS THE STRNG
GUSTS WILL BE SLOWER TO DMNSH. WIND GUSTS 40-45 KTS ACROSS NRN CSTL
WTRS WITH 35-40KTS FRTHR SOUTH. SEAS & WAVES RESPOND TO THESE GUSTY
WINDS. SEAS AVG 7-10 FT WITH WAVES IN CHES BAY 4-5 FT.

GIVEN THE TMPS/WIND GUSTS AND CRNT WTR TMPS...PER COORD WITH PHL...
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FREEZING SPRAY ADVSRY FOR THE CSTL WTRS
NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND. THIS IS WHERE SOME MODERATE ICING IS
LIKELY. KEPT LIGHT ICING MENTIONED FRTHR SOUTH & IN THE CHES BAY
ATTM.

WINDS DMNSH TO SCA SAT THEN QUICKLY DMNSH BLO SCA LVLS BY SAT EVE
AS HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO AND OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT.

NEXT LOW CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY WITH ANTHR CAA SURGE SEEN BEHIND
THIS SYSTM MON AFTRN AND NIGHT. KEPT WINDS IN SCA RANGE AND CAPPED
GUSTS ACROSS CSTL WTRS AT 30 KTS FOR NOW.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ630>632-634>636-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR ANZ633-637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652.
     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ652-
     654.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ656-658.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO NOON EST SATURDAY
     FOR ANZ650-652.
     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...AJZ/LKB
MARINE...MPR