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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231937
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
337 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
THEN DISSIPATES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
SCT CONVECTION ACROSS THE MTS PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE SE IVOF THERMAL
TROF LATE THIS AFTRN. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS THRU THE EVENING. MODELS
SHOW A LULL IN PCPN COVERAGE LATER THIS EVE BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF APPRCHG COLD FRONT. BEST SUPPORT FOR PCPN
WILL BE ACROSS NRN HALF OF FA TOWARDS SUNRISE WITH HIGHEST POPS
(40%) ACROSS NORTHERN MOST AREAS. OTW..PT TO MSTLY CLDY & MUGGY.
LOWS 70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO DROP SE ACROSS THE FA THU MORNING BEFORE
SLOWING AS IT APPRCHS THE NC/NC BORDER DRNG THE AFTRN. MEANWHILE...
MODELS DEPICT WEAK S/W MOVG NE ALONG THE BNDRY DRNG THE AFTRN AND
EVENING. BEST FORCING COUPLED WITH A 60-70KT RRQ OF UPR JET APPEARS
TO ENHANCE PCPN CHC ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA. APPEARS THAT PORTIONS OF
THE FA THAT NEED RAIN THE MOST (IVOF RIC METRO AREA) MAY LUCK OUT
WITH THE HIGHER QPF`S ONCE AGAIN. SVR THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL DUE TO
THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE AND TIMING OF THE FROPA. GIVEN PW`S AOA
1.5 INCHES...SOME HVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WNDS PSBL IN ANY TSTRM
ACROSS THE SOUTH. KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR NOW ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF
FA...CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. TMPS TRICKY. HIGHS 80-85 NORTH...
85-90 SOUTH.

BNDRY PROGGED TO STALL/WASH OUT ACROSS SERN VA/NRN NC THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING WITH LINGERING TROF ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRI AFTRN.
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING THE EVE...WITH CHC POPS AFTER
MIDNITE. DRYING FROM THE NORTH ENDS PCPN THERE. STILL MUGGY THU
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. DRY FRI EXCEPT KEPT A SLIGHT CHC POP
IN ACROSS NC CNTYS DRNG THE AFTRN. HIGHS IN THE L-M80S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER WRT RETURNING MOISTURE SAT AFTRN. GFS WETTER
FARTHER NORTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR NOW GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINITY. LOWS FRI NIGHT 65-70. HIGHS SAT 85-90.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER NC FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS. FRONT
REMAINS STATIONARY OVER NC ON SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWING LIFTING BACK
NORTH THROUGH VA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL CARRY
SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH SATURDAY FOR POSSIBILITY OF
AFTN CONVECTION NEAR THE FRONT. BY SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL ALIGN
ITSELF ACROSS NORTHERN VA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. WILL
CARRY CHC POPS INTO MONDAY AS WELL AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES NEARBY.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY/COOLER AIR ARRIVING NEXT
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 80S. WARMEST SUNDAY/MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S. COOLER AGAIN NEXT TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CU 3-4K FT
AGL. LATEST RADAR TRENDS DEPICT A PRECIP FREE LOCAL AREA...WITH
MUCH OF THE MEASURABLE PRECIP REMAINING OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS. AREA OF EXPANDING CU OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT
IN TAFS. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT AREAS ALONG THE COAST TO REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE...A SHARPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH OVER THE REGION IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE OH
VALLEY...WILL RESULT IN S-SWLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB 10-15 KT.
EXPECT CU AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE LOCAL
AREA TONIGHT...SLOWING CROSSING THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
MIXING WILL LIKELY LIMIT FOG COVERAGE TONIGHT. BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THURS AFTERNOON.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WNW ON
FRIDAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
SATURDAY...BRINGING A RETURN TO RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS DURING THE
WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. TECHNICIANS ARE AWARE OF THE ISSUE.
CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE ASOS SITE
DIRECTLY. IN THE MEANTIME...AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE
KSBY TAF UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SWITCHING ANYWHERE FROM ESE TO S TODAY WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 5-10 KT THIS MORNING...BECOMING 10-15 KT BY THIS AFTN
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WNW. A PRE-FRONTAL
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS AHEAD OF IT AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY MID-LATE AFTN THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT (AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS...GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE OVER OCEAN). THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
LATE TONIGHT INTO THU WITH SHOWERS/STORMS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD.
WINDS TURN TO A MORE S-SW DIRECTION TONIGHT...W-NW ON THU...THEN N
THU NIGHT. WAVES GENERALLY 1 FOOT THIS MORNING...BUILDING TO 1-2 FT
BY MID-LATE AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS 2-3 FT THIS MORNING...
BUILDING TO 3-4 FT EARLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WAVES/SEAS
START TO SUBSIDE THU AFTN AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO STALL ALONG THE NC
COAST...WHICH WILL ALSO CAUSE PRECIP TO BECOME SHUNTED OVER FAR SE
VA/NE NC BY THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS ON FRI AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB
10 KT FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY SAT MORNING...BRINGING A RETURN TO ONSHORE E-SE WINDS AOB
15 KT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO IMPACT
THE REGION WILL APPROACH THE WATERS SUN NIGHT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDOX RADAR HAS RETURNED TO SERVICE BUT REMAINS UNSTABLE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...MAS
EQUIPMENT...AKQ