Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 250204 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1004 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... QUIET WX THIS EVE. SFC HI RMNS OFF THE MDATCL CST. MILD NGT W/ LGT S WNDS AND SLO RISE IN DEWPTS. MSTLY SKC WITH LO TEMPS U50S- L60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... BERMUDA HIGH PROVIDES SUMMER LIKE CNDTNS THRU THE PRD. A WEAK TROF DVLPS TUE...BUT AIRMASS REMAINS CAPPED FOR ANY CONVECTION TO HOLD TOGETHER E OF THE MTS. A MORE DEFINED LEE TROF PROGGED WED AFTRN. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH ADVANCING MSTR FROM THE OHIO/TN VLLY SHUD ALLOW FOR SCT AFTRN/EVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. KEPT 20-30 POP WED ALONG/W OF I95 CORRIDOR. HIGHS EACH DAY M-U80S W OF THE CHES BAY...M70S-L80S ALONG THE COAST...COOLEST AT THE BEACHES. LOWS IN THE 60S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EACH DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR /TSTMS ACROSS NW AREAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP FRONTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. LEESIDE TROUGH MAY TRIGGER AFTER THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. GFS/EURO BOTH INDICATE DRYING FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LESS COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. RIDGING WEAKENS AND THE COLD FRONT TO THE NW BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA. TSTM CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES INLAND RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY INCREASING TO AROUND 90 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM 80 TO 85 NEAR THE COAST. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 65 TO 70. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD. SFC HI PRES JUST OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN. SE-SW FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MID ATL REGION. WIND WILL BE SLIGHTLY GUSTY UP TO 20 KT THRU THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. ONLY SCT CU AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAY. && .MARINE... A QUIET PERIOD IS FORECAST IN THE MARINE AREA. WINDS WILL VARY BETWEEN SE AND SW THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA MAINLY OVER THE BAY DUE TO DIURNAL EFFECTS AND SOUTHERLY CHANNELING. GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WERE APPROACHING 20 KNOTS AT SOME LOCATIONS MAINLY ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE BAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS POINT...SCA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED. IN THE COASTAL WATERS...SEAS HAVE FAILED TO INCREASE ABOVE 2 FEET. A GRADUAL INCREASE TO 3 TO 4 FT IS INDICATED LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB/MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...LSA AVIATION...MAS/JEF MARINE...LSA

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