


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --152 FXUS61 KAKQ 071053 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 653 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Tropical Depression Chantal across SE NC is poised to move across North Carolina tonight, bringing showers and a few embedded storms, primarily to the southern half of the area. Behind the storm, very warm and humid conditions are expected for the latter half of next week, with mainly hit or miss type afternoon and evening showers and storms possible each day. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 650 AM EDT Monday... The Flood Watches that were in effect until 12 and 14z in the piedmont have been cancelled. Previous Discussion: Key Message: - Remnants of Chantal bring heavy rainfall to the area. A Flood Watch is in effect for the Northern Neck and portions of the MD Eastern Shore today. Early morning sfc analysis indicates remnant low pressure from Chantal located near the SW border of the FA. Latest radar shows steady rain associated with the system along the western border between Mecklenburg and Prince Edward counties with light, widely scattered showers across area. The higher rainfall rates are just now (07z) making it into the local area. As the low progresses NNE this morning, the steadier, heavier rain will spread across western portions of the FA. The Flood Watch currently in effect for most of the piedmont will continue until 12/14z. As the day progresses, the remnant low will pass through the area from SW to NE as it continues to weaken; heavy rainfall will follow along with it. This becomes a bit more concerning late this morning into the afternoon due to increasing instability (to ~1500 J/kg) aiding in redevelopment of showers and storms. The 00z suite of CAMs continue to indicate PWATs climbing to 2.25-2.5" over eastern portions of the area, which will help achieve those higher rainfall rates near the low. The track of the low combined with timing of the rising instability suggests that the focal area for the heaviest rainfall today will be over the Northern Neck and the bay side of the MD Eastern Shore. This thinking is supported by the HREF 3-hr PMM QPF which keys in on these areas with the 3" probs (10-20%). WPC did upgrade these areas to a slight risk ERO as well. With all this in mind, went ahead and issued a Flood Watch for 14z-21z. Forecast QPF is in the 1.5-3" range within the watch, 0.25-1.5" for elsewhere N of US-460. Given the depth of the moisture, slow storm motions, and history of the system, there could certainly be localized areas with higher amounts. Southern portions of the area may not see much in the way of appreciable rainfall after daybreak today, but still expecting at least widely scattered showers. Once the low moves out of the area late this afternoon, precip should come to an end fairly quickly especially with the loss of daytime heating. Highs today will be in the upper 80s in the NE and around 90 elsewhere.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 305 AM EDT Monday... Key Message: - Normal July weather is expected with hot, humid weather and daily storm chances. Tues marks the return of typical July weather: hot and humid with daily thunderstorm chances. A weak sfc front will approach the region from the north then stall out just N of the FA and remain more or less in place for the rest of the week. Highs on Tues will be in the mid 90s with heat indices approaching 105 for much of the area (primarily E). While a heat advy may be needed, decided to hold off with this package since meeting criteria may come down to timing of storm development. Expecting scattered storms across the area with highest coverage in the NW in the afternoon, shifting over to the Eastern Shore later in the evening. SPC does have just about the entire area in a Marginal Risk for damaging wind gusts. However, confidence is low since the flow aloft looks rather week and storms will be relying on large amounts of instability to strengthen. Wed looks a couple of degrees cooler with highs in the low 90s. Storm coverage will probably be higher on Wed across the whole area given increased flow aloft as the axis of a weak trough moves toward the region. Heavy rain and isolated flooding will of course be possible and the area is in a Marginal ERO both days. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 305 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Staying near normal through the end of the week with mainly afternoon/evening storm chances. The warm and unsettled pattern continues to end the week and into the weekend. Highs each day will be around norms for this time of year i.e. upper 80s/around 90. We will continue to see diurnal showers and thunderstorms each day through Sun. Thurs looks like the highest coverage day of the period as of now owing to potential development of weak low pressure near the FA/along the front. Will say that exact details are difficult to tease out at this point since a lot of it will depend on where the weak front goes and when, plus the weaker flow aloft. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 650 AM EDT Monday... TD Chantal is centered near the SW portion of the forecast area as of 11z. The remnant low of Chantal is expected to lift NE across the region through ~21z today, and nudging off the coast thereafter. Continuing to see degraded conditions with MVFR CIGs. MVFR and occasional IFR conditions (cigs and vsby) are expected to continue through the morning as showers move across the terminals. These showers and degraded flight conditions move toward the coast later this morning and linger into early aftn. Heavy rain is expected and which may reduce vsbys. Embedded thunder is possible. The wind will generally be E to SE ahead of the low, and shifts to SW as the low departs, with gusts to around 20kt possible toward the coast. Very warm and humid conditions follow for Tuesday through Friday, with late day and evening showers/tstms possible, along with some early morning ground fog/stratus.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .MARINE... As of 215 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - SCAs have been issued for the northern coastal waters until 1 AM tonight to account for elevated seas. - The SCAs have been extended until the afternoon/evening for the southern coastal waters, Lower Chesapeake Bay, and Currituck Sound. An SCA has been issued for the Lower James River until 4 PM this afternoon. - Sub-SCA conditions prevail Tuesday-Friday with daily thunderstorm chances. - A Moderate Rip Current Risk remains in place for all beaches today and Tuesday. Early morning wx analysis shows TD Chantal lifting NNE near the VA- NC border (well inland). Winds are SE at 10-20 kt on the waters, with ~4 ft seas and 2-3 ft waves. The remnants of Chantal slowly track to the NE today (and into the Lower Eastern Shore by late aftn). This will allow winds to gradually veer to the south today and increase to 15-20 kt (highest on the ocean...but frequent 20 kt gusts are likely on the Lower Bay/Lower James during the day). In addition, seas build to 4-5 ft (perhaps 6 ft 20 nm offshore of Ocean City, MD). Therefore, have extended the SCAs for the ocean until 7 PM-1 AM, and lower bay/Currituck Sound until 4 PM. Have also issued an SCA for the Lower James until 4 PM. Winds are forecast diminish tonight/Tuesday as the low slowly exits (although a brief wind surge to near SCA levels is possible on the bay/Lower James tonight). However, 5 ft seas may linger across the northern coastal waters through part of tonight (that is why the SCAs were extended until 1 AM for the coastal waters N of Cape Charles). Variable, but prevailing sub- SCA, marine conditions return from Tuesday through Friday with afternoon sea breezes and more typical summertime diurnally- driven shower/storm activity. Rip Currents: A Moderate Risk of rip currents continues across all beaches today and Tuesday. This is due to ~3 ft nearshore waves and high period swell with periods up to 15 seconds possible. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Flood Watch from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ021>023. NC...None. VA...Flood Watch from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ075>078-085-521-522. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ632>634-638. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ656- 658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HET/MAM NEAR TERM...AC SHORT TERM...AC LONG TERM...AC AVIATION...AJZ/AC MARINE...ERI/MAM