Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 212027 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 327 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure pushes farther off the New England coast tonight. Low pressure tracks east across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida Peninsula Wednesday through Friday. A strong cold front crosses the local area Saturday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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Latest sfc analysis shows a weak cold front washing out as it crosses the eastern Great Lakes. Meanwhile, strong low pressure it situated over the lower MS Valley. As these two features continue to push east tonight, we will see clouds continue to thicken creating mostly cloudy conditions overnight. Any shower activity will stay west of the local area thru 6 AM. Lows in the 40s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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The strong upper low is expected to pass over the eastern GOMEX on Wednesday, then cross the southern FL Peninsula Wednesday night into Thursday morning before pushing east of the Bahamas late Thursday. Meanwhile, high pressure will linger off the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts. A weak shortwave approaches the area from the west Wednesday morning then settles SE of the area in the afternoon. Although forcing will be weak, BUFKIT soundings for KRIC show sufficient moisture present (thru at least 700 mb) for some light rain during Wednesday, especially across the Piedmont (spreading east to the Bay in the afternoon). Have highest pops 40-50% west of I-95 thru the day. QPF amounts will generally be less than a tenth of an inch or so. Continued mild Wednesday despite mostly cloudy skies. Highs in the low- mid 60s...to near 70 over interior NE NC. Plenty of moisture at different levels to keep sky conditions partly to mostly cloudy Wednesday night, but little if any support for pcpn. Lows from the upr 40s north to low 50s south. Increasing WSW develops Thurs due to the position of the low off the FL coast and a deepening trough over the northern Plains/Midwest. Models indicating enough moisture present for partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with isolated showers. Warmer with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s near the water, low to mid 70s west of the Ches Bay. Lows Thursday night mainly 50-55. By Friday, southerly flow is expected with building heights along the East Coast. Meanwhile, potent low pressure continues to deepen over the upper Midwest. Low level thickness values support max temps reaching the low/mid 70s many locations (cooler immediate coast). Will probably end up below record highs Friday with winds expected be more S-SE as opposed to WSW.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The models are in good agreement in the extended range showing a flat ridge over the eastern US for the second half of the work week. That ridge will amplify into Saturday as a trough lifts out of the central plains into the Great Lake states which will knock the ridge down by Sunday and return the area to more westerly zonal flow. Overall, this will lead to another period of well above normal temperatures along with a chance for showers and psbl tstms as the cold front crosses the area Saturday. The next strong sfc low will lift from the central plains into the Great Lakes on Friday into Saturday dragging a cold front across the region on Saturday. The guidance remains in decent agreement for a swath of moisture and marginal dynamics with the fropa on Sat, but with the upper trough already taking on a negative tilt so far W of the Appalachians, could see a scenario where precip struggles to hold together as the front moves east of the Mtns. Will maintain chance pops (30-50%) shwrs/tstms Sat with low end likely pops across the far N. Very warm with highs upper 60s NW to lower-mid 70s SE. Behind the front, temperatures will return closer to normal but will remain above avg (just not 20 to 25 degrees above normal as Fri-Sat will be). Dry Sun-mon with highs mainly in the 50s N to the 60s S. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Mainly VFR conditions through most of the 18Z TAF period as sfc hi pres moves off the New England coast. Winds become SE tonight...though remain light...usually a precursor to at least patchy fog and/or ST development late at night/early in the morning. Models not quite that impressed w/ lowering CIGS and/or VSBYS to low from about 09Z-13Z/22...but have included light fog in most TAFs...and bkn CIGS lowering to abt 2kft invof RIC. Broad area of sfc lo pres over the Lower MS Valley will drift to the E into FL Wed. Moisture will increase from the S...w/ ISOLD/SCT RASH expected. Complex frontal system will affect the area late in the week with small chances for showers Thu and Thu night. A strong cold front passes through the Mid Atlantic States Saturday a lo probability for RASH/tstms. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions continue today as sfc high pres ridging down from the north becomes centered offshore later this aftn. Winds will be easterly aob 10 kt with 1-2 ft waves over the Bay and 2-3 ft seas over cstl wtrs. The high remains offshore into Wed with southerly winds aob 10 kt. Sub-SCA S/SW flow then persists until at least Fri night ahead of the next cold front, which crosses the wtrs over the weekend with marginal SCA conditions psbl. && .CLIMATE...
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Feb 2017 is shaping up to rank among the warmest on record given continued warmth over the next week. Daily record highs are listed below, with the top 3 warmest February`s on record listed below that. Expecting RIC and ORF to be at least into the top 3 warmest (and possibly the warmest). Daily Record Highs for Thursday 2/23 and Friday 2/24: 2/23 2/24 RIC 75 in 1985 82 in 1985 ORF 79 in 1975 82 in 2012 SBY 74 in 1943 77 in 2012 ECG 77 in 1975 79 in 1985 Warmest February`s on record: * RIC: 1) 49.9 (1890) 2) 48.5 (1976) 3) 48.1 (1884) * ORF: 1) 52.4 (1890) 2) 50.5 (1909) 3) 50.1 (1990)
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...ALB MARINE...LKB CLIMATE...AKQ

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