Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 191509 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1109 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak trough of low pressure will bring a few isolated showers and thunderstorms around the area this afternoon into this evening. High pressure aloft builds toward the Mid Atlantic for Thursday into the weekend, bringing hot and humid conditions to the entire region.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Current analysis indicates a weak trough aloft centered over southeast VA/eastern/central NC with a sfc lee trough over the entire region. Skies are currently mainly sunny for the western 2/3 of the CWA with dew pts in the 60s, with SCT-BKN cumulus developing over SE VA/NE NC/and the eastern shore (where dew pts are mainly 70-75 F). The trough of low pressure (aloft) will gradually shift ESE acrs the area and twd the coast this aftn through this evening. This trough combined with a little more heat/instability will result in isolated showers/tstms this aftn into this evening, mainly with the seabreeze closer to the coast and with any storms developing on the mtns and drifting east into the western portions of the CWA later this aftn. Highs will range fm the mid-upper 80s northeast NC to the lower-mid 90s along/west of I-95.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Thu thru Fri, rising heights fm upper level high pressure over the cntrl Plains and MS valley will build into the region. This will allow for increasing heat through the period. Except for isolated sea breeze boundary induced showers or tstms Thu aftn, expect dry and hot conditions with highs mainly in the lower to mid 90s. Heat index values will be between the upper 90s to lower 100s. Fri will be hotter with high temps ranging fm the mid 90s to near 100 degrees. A heat advisory will be likely on Fri, as heat index values will be around 105 degrees over most of the region. This is certainly not unprecedented heat for this part of the country during this time of year, but it will be very hot nonetheless, and potentially dangerous for those not prepared for it. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Bermuda High retrogrades to a position well off the Southeast Coast Fri night into early next week. This allows the overall upper level flow to flatten...becoming more swly early next week as another upper trough drops out of Canada and over the Upper Midwest. Hot and muggy conditions will persist through the weekend. Expect high temperatures in the upper 90s to around 100F inland and low-mid 90s beaches. Lows in the mid-upper 70s Fri-Sun nights. Dewpoints in the low-mid 70s will result in widespread heat indices of 105-109F (heat advisory criteria). If forecast highs increase a degree or two (which has been the trend in 12z model runs over the past several days), this would be enough to push heat indices into excessive heat warning values; will monitor closely. Although Monday highs are a few degrees cooler than the weekend, they could end up being just as hot as the upper trough starts to dig into the Upper Midwest and reinforces sw flow over the region and thus the continued influx of hot 850mb temps. Periods of isolated to scattered thunderstorms should be anticipated each aftn/evening... especially invof lee trough axis which remains steadfast in this hot/humid airmass regime. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Outside of isolated convection this aftn/early this evening, expect mainly VFR conditions at the TAF sites today into Thu morning. There also could be isolated IFR cigs at SBY early this morning and early Thu morning. OUTLOOK...VFR conditions expected Thu into the weekend, as high pressure builds toward the Mid Atlc region. && .MARINE... Trough sfc-aloft to gradually weaken through tonight...then hi pres rebuilds over the waters Thu into the weekend. Prevailing winds will remain SSW through the period...mainly less than 15 kt...though some increase in speeds late each day into the overnight hours. Seas 2-3ft. Waves 1-2ft. && .CLIMATE...
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Heatwave is expected to develop, mainly Friday through Sunday. The 2nd half of July is climatologically the hottest few weeks of the year so we still may not set any daily records at our main climate sites. For reference, record highs Thursday through Sunday are listed below: * Date: Thu(7/20) Fri(7/21) Sat(7/22) Sun(7/23) * RIC: 103/1930 104/1930 103/1952 103/1952 * ORF: 102/1942 101/1926 102/2011 103/2011 * SBY: 104/1930 106/1930 104/1930 103/2011 * ECG: 104/1942 102/1987 104/1952 104/1952
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&& .EQUIPMENT...
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AKQ radar is inoperable and return to service is not expected until Thursday (see FTMAKQ for details).
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB/TMG SHORT TERM...TMG/MRD LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...TMG MARINE...ALB CLIMATE...AKQ EQUIPMENT...AKQ

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