Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 250745 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 345 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS FEATURES SFC COLD FRONT ALIGNED ACROSS FAR WESTERN TIER OF THE CWA, AND IS ORIENTED FROM NE TO SW FROM SE NY INTO UPSTATE SC AT 07Z. ALOFT...AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPR LEVEL LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO SE ONTARIO, WITH NUMEROUS WEAK PERTURBATIONS NOTED ON EARLY MORNING GOES WV IMAGERY ROTATING AROUND IT. SEEING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HAVE MAINTAINED ISO SHOWER WORDING (20% POP) FOR I-95 EARLY THIS MORNING, SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST TO THE COAST AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING. THE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME STALLED ALONG THE COAST BY AFTN. THE STALLED BOUNDARY IN TANDEM WITH WEAK UPPER SUPPORT ALOFT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE FAR SE TIER OF THE CWA. HAVE MAINTAINED A 20-30% POP ALONG NE NC COAST INTO FAR SE VA FOR THE AFTN. BUT REMOVED POPS INLAND OVER THE NW THIRD OF THE AREA W/MARKEDLY DRIER AIR DROPPING PW AOB 1" IN THIS AREA BY THE AFTN. HIGH TEMPS TODAY CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE GOING FORECAST, WITH MOS GUIDANCE AND LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS BOTH YIELDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHOWERS IN THE EAST QUICKLY DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PIEDMONT. HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW POP FOR SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT IN THE SE. OTHERWISE A COOL, COMFORTABLE EVENING FOR MOST WITH LOWS 60-65 INLAND, 65-70 SOUTHEAST CST. FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE TO FAVOR DECREASING POPS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WED AND THU, AS THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH FINALLY EJECTS NE, WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEAKENING FRONT/SFC TROUGH SLOWLY SLIDING OFFSHORE. SLIGHT CHC (20% POPS) CONTINUE OVER FAR SE AREAS WED AFTN, DECREASING TO BELOW 20% (SILENT POPS) OVERNIGHT WED AND THU. MEANWHILE...STRONG 1020+MB SFC HI PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ON WED, AND PARTLY CLOUDY IN LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ON THU WITH TEMPS NR NORMAL. HIGHS AVG OUT IN THE MID 80S, WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE 60S. NORTHERN SYSTEM OPENS UP AND EJECTS NE INTO ATLANTIC CANADA...AND SOUTHERN TROUGH RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY BACK WEST INTO THE WEST- CENTRAL GULF. IN BETWEEN, MID TO UPPER FLOW BECOMES W-SW OVER THE LOCAL AREA. MEANWHILE, COOL/DRY SFC HIGH SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC BY 12Z/FRIDAY...AND OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DRY/PLEASANT WX WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. HIGHS FRIDAY MAINLY 80-85 (UPR 70S ALONG THE COAST) UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... SFC HI PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED FM THE MDATLC TO NEW ENG HEADING INTO THE WKND. HI PRES SFC-ALOFT TO RMN INVOF MDATLC CST THROUGH THE WKND. LONG FETCH FM THE ESE THROUGH THE WRN ATLC SAT INTO SUN XPCD TO BRING SOME INCRS IN MOISTURE TO THE SE STATES...AND PTNTLLY/EVENTUALLY FARTHER N INTO THE MDATLC STATES BY MON. WILL HAVE MNLY DIURNAL POPS ACRS THE FA LT WKND INTO MON...ESP ACRS FAR SRN VA/NE NC. TEMPS NR SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PD...W/ MOST DAYTIME HI TEMPS IN THE 80S. LO TEMPS AT NGT IN THE 60S TO ARND 70F. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE DELMARVA INTO WCNTRL NC AS OF THE 25/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE REDEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MOVING ENE. ONE SHOWER MAY GRAZE THE VICINITY OF KRIC...OTHERWISE BEST SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NE NC LATER THIS AFTN AS THE FRONT SLOWLY EXITS THE COAST. HAVE CARRIED VCSH AT KECG AFTER 25/1800Z AND WILL ADDRESS KPHF AND KORF AS POP-UP SHOWERS/STORMS WARRANT AMENDMENTS. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AND ALONG IT WITH SPEEDS AOB 10KT. THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVES SE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA THE REST OF WEDNESDAY...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER FAR SE VA AND NE NC. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SETTLING OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. && .MARINE... SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE DELMARVA INTO WCNTRL NC EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OVER THE WATERS BY THIS AFTN...WHICH MAY CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SRN WATERS FROM ROUGHLY CAPE CHARLES LIGHT SWD. WINDS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...AND GENERALLY SE-S OUT AHEAD OF IT WITH SPEEDS AOB 10KT. WAVES 1-2FT. SEAS 2-4FT THIS MORNING...SUBSIDING TO 2-3FT THIS AFTN. THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVES SE AWAY FROM THE WATERS DURING THE REST OF WEDNESDAY...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER FAR SE VA AND NE NC. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SETTLING OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT GENERALLY ONSHORE WINDS WITH SPEEDS AOB 15KT...AND WAVES 1-2FT/SEAS 2-3FT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...BMD MARINE...BMD

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