Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 222321 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 721 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure resides over the Mid Atlantic Region tonight through mid week...bringing in a drier and more seasonable airmass to the area. High pressure then slides offshore later in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Sfc high pressure builds into the region the rest of today and slides overhead tonight. Limited few-sct cumulus fields this afternoon will dissipate btwn 500-700 PM with the loss of daytime heating. Cooler/comfortable temps tonight with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s NW to mid-upper 60s SE (70-74 beaches) and dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s to lower 60s (mid 60s beaches). && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Sfc ridge axis becomes oriented along the Mid Atlantic coastline by Tue afternoon and fluctuates inland at times through Wed. Meanwhile, mid-upper level ridging gradually amplifies over the area, and onshore/NE-E winds averaging 10 mph will persist at the immediate coast with highest speeds around 15 mph anticipated from Wachapreague, VA to Duck, NC during this timeframe. The overall forecast will be dry with diurnal cumulus developing (mainly inland) each afternoon. Isolated showers/storms may be possible closer to Albemarle Sound Wed afternoon (per hi-res model solutions) with the potential for increasing clouds in srn NE NC as Wed progresses. However, will limit POPs to 10% since the available moisture layer attm is very shallow. Temperatures will be at to slightly below normal with dewpoints generally around 60F. Highs Tue in the low-mid 80s. Lows Tue night in the upper 50s to lower 60s inland (upper 60s to around 70F beaches). Slightly warmer Wed with highs in the mid 80s inland...lower 80s beaches. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The quiet weather will continue into the end of the week and into the weekend as upper ridging builds across the eastern US. This will allow the westerlies to remain well north of the area for the next week with a gradual warming trend. There is a hint of a disturbance in the mean flow moving into the northeastern states Thu night. The surface reflection of this disturbance may allow for an isolated shower or storm to move off the mountains during the afternoon. However, given the very dry anticendent airmass and general upper level anti-cyclonic flow, will keep any chances for precipitation out of the forecast at this time. Gradually through the weekend into Monday, heat and humidity returns which may allow for sea breeze type thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon/evening hours. However, once again given the strongly anticylonic flow aloft have opted to keep out all mention of precipitation through Monday as well. Overall, temperatures and humidity will be slow to rise through the weekend into early next week. Am expecting temperatures to be back above normal by the end of the work week with readings in the lower 90s. && .AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Vfr through the 00z taf period. Sfc hi pressure builds into and over the Mid Atlantic Tue before sliding offshore Wed into Thu. Winds will be light and vrb/nely tngt into tue. Dry and vfr conditions are expected throughout the week with high pressure in the vicinity, and no chance of rain through the end of the week.
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&& .MARINE... Winds and waves are slowly diminishing this afternoon as the surface high builds across the area. Will go ahead and cancel the SCA over the southern waters at 4pm with waves below 4 ft. Otherwise, high pressure will remain over the middle Atlantic through Wednesday, then slowly move offshore through the end of the week. This will keep persistant northerly winds of 15 kt tonight becoming NE on Tuesday. As the high shifts offshore, the winds will gradually become light then shift southerly by Friday. && .EQUIPMENT... Due to an azimuth motor failure, the KAKQ 88D radar will be out of service through possibly Tuesday afternoon before a return to service. Technicians will begin repairs first thing Tuesday morning. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/BMD NEAR TERM...BMD SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...MAS MARINE...MRD EQUIPMENT...

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