Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 271419 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1019 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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SFC CDFNT HAS CLEARED SE VA/NE NC...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL CONT TO SPREAD OVR THE FA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTN. SERIES OF VERY WK LO PRES AREAS WILL BE TRACKING NE ALG THAT FNT OFF THE CST THROUGH THIS EVE RESULTING IN HI PROB FOR RA (POP 90-100%) ACRS THE FA. ADDITIONALLY...TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR FALL A FEW DEGS F THROUGH THIS AFTN (MNLY IN THE L/M40S) ALG W/ GUSTY NNE WND (TO 20-25 MPH ESP AT THE CST) MAKING CONDS FEEL EVEN COLDER (BIG DIFFERENCE FM 24 HRS AGO). PCPN GENERALLY MOVES OFFSHORE AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL TEND TO KEEP ENOUGH UVM IN PLACE ALONG WITH LINGERING MOISTURE TO TOUCH OFF SPOTTY SHOWERS. WITH VERY COLD AIR ALOFT ARRIVING OVERNIGHT...THERE CAN EVEN BE SNOW SHOWERS OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AND NO TRAVEL PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED. LOWS TONIGHT FROM NR 30 NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON SAT...THEN OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT. HIGHS ON SAT ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE MID- UPPER 40S. IF THERE ARE ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THERE COULD STILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. AFTN INSTABILITY WITH THE TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CUMULUS WHICH MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT SHOULD STAY CONFINED ALONG THE COAST. ALL SHOWERS FINALLY COME TO AN END SAT EVE...SKIES CLEAR...AND TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE 20S BY SUN MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. SUNNY SKIES WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER HIGHLIGHT BUT THE DRY/STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH READINGS ONLY WARMING INTO THE MID- UPPER 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS INTERIOR VA AND NE NC. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... OVERALL PATTERN WILL FEATURE SOME FLATTENING OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH A WEAKER VERSION OF A MEAN UPPER RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND AND TROUGH IN THE NE CONUS. WHAT LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON MON. LATEST 12Z/26 ECMWF SHOWING A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE THAN THE GFS AS IT DIGS THE SHORTWAVE FARTHER SOUTH. WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHC POP FOR SHOWERS FOR NOW...NO GULF CONNECTION PRESENT IN WNW FLOW ALOFT SO ANY POTENTIAL QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES MON REMAIN SEASONABLE...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S...A BIT COOLER OVER THE ERN SHORE. NEXT SHORTWAVE SLATED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN FARTHER NORTH...MOVING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AT 12Z/TUE...TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED/WED NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING DRY WX TO THE LOCAL AREA TUE/WED AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW ON TUE...AND THEN TO THE W ON WED AS SFC LOW PRESSURE PASSES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND NE CONUS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 70S ARE POSSIBLE WELL INLAND DEPENDING ON THE PRECISE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW. GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE BY THU...GFS BEING THE WETTER SOLN AS SFC LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE TN VALLEY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. WILL HAVE CHC POPS FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER...STAYING NEAR CLIMO AT THIS POINT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 F. MORNING LOWS MON-THU AVG IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A COLD FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH RIC/SBY AS OF 06Z TRIGGERING AND WIND SHIFT TO N ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS ~20KT AND 1.5-2.0KFT CIGS IN ITS WAKE. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP S OVERNIGHT WITH THE WIND SHIFT AND LOWERING CIGS OCCURRING FROM ABOUT 08-10Z AT PHF/ORF/ECG. SOME IFR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE AT RIC/PHF AFTER 09-10Z. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW SO IT WAS INCLUDED AS A TEMPORARY CONDITION. THE LATEST DATA INDICATES THE BULK OF -RA SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL 12Z AT RIC/SBY...AND EVEN A FEW HOURS LATER AT PHF/ORF. AREAS OF -RA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN NC REACHING ECG AROUND 12Z. THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS INCREASES AFTER 12Z...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR VSBY IN HEAVIER RA. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS THE WIND SHIFTS TO NW. ISOLATED -SHRA/SHSN ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS A COLD UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .MARINE... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MARINE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT FROM SSW TO N...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 20-25KT. SEAS WILL RESPOND BUILDING TO 6-8FT WITH 3-4FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALLOWING THE WIND TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT OFF THE NC COAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CAA. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO RESUME TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WITH A NW WIND AVERAGING 20-25KT LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS SHOULD LINGER AROUND 4- 5 FT...WITH 3-4FT WAVES IN THE BAY RETURNING LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CURRENT SCAS WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE RIVERS WHERE THE LULL SHOULD EXCEED 12 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY PASSES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY...AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE WIND TO SHIFT TO SSW. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>634- 650-652-654-656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ638.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM SHORT TERM...BMD/JDM LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...AJZ

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