Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 171109 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 709 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary along the Carolina coast today. This boundary will gradually push offshore by Tuesday. A strong upper level ridge gradually builds toward the Mid Atlantic for the middle and later portion of the week bringing a return to hot humid conditions. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The latest GOES wv imagery depicts a nearly stationary moist frontal band extending SW-NE along the Carolina coast embedded between a trough over the Great Lakes and a ridge over the subtropical Atlantic. At the surface, little remains of an old surface boundary, but there is a subtle airmass difference between the Piedmont and coastal SE VA/Ern NC. A shortwave trough is diving sewd across the Ohio Valley early this morning, which is amplifying the broader longwave trough. Another shortwave trough is lifting ENE along the moist frontal band, which is triggering showers and embedded tstms in vicinity of the NC Outer Banks. The frontal band and shortwave trough will gradually lift nwd today as the trough amplifies to the W. As a result occasional showers with embedded tstms should affect NE NC and far SE VA today. Rainfall amounts should generally be 0.25" or less, with localized higher amounts in embedded tstms. Farther to the NW, from the Piedmont to the MD Ern Shore expect isolated diurnally drive showers/tstms under a partly sunny sky. Mostly cloudy to overcast conditions across NE NC and far SE VA should keep high temperatures in the low 80s with mid/upper 80s farther NW. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The initial wave pushes offshore this evening followed by another weak shortwave feature later tonight into Tuesday. Therefore, low chc PoPs (20-40%) will be maintained for far SE VA/NE NC. Farther NW, shortwave ridging will generally prevail tonight into Tuesday with PoPs aob 20%. High temperatures will rise a few degrees over today with more sun and some mid-level warming, with readings generally in the upper 80s to low 90s, after morning lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. A subtle wave tracks across the nrn Mid-Atlantic Tuesday night, and this combined with some mid-level instability will result in a slight chc PoP across the nrn tier counties. Partly cloudy with lows mainly 70-75F. The trough gradually slumps off the coast Wednesday as an upper level ridge builds across the Ohio Valley. There is a lack of a substantial trigger for convection, but a slight chc PoP will be maintained for sea/bay breeze interactions in closer proximity to the departing trough. 850mb temperatures rebound to 17- 19C supporting high temperatures in the low/mid 90s (upper 80s/around 90 for the immediate coast) under a partly to mostly sunny sky. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Bermuda High settles over the central Atlantic the rest of this week as very persistent troughing continues across the Northeast. Mid Atlantic Region now anticipated to remain within a warm sector throughout the long term forecast. Expect periods of unsettled weather with showers/storms developing each aftn/evening...especially invof lee trough axis; position of trough varies each day. Otherwise, warm and muggy conditions continue with highs generally in the low-mid 90s, lows in the 70s, and dewpoints in the mid 60s NW to around 75F SE. This should support widespread heat indices in the 100-105 range with 105-108 possible SE for Thu/Fri. && .AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A weak frontal boundary remains in vicinity of the NC coast early this morning. Weak low pressure will lift ENE along the boundary today bringing occasional showers and embedded tstms to ECG and potentially ORF. Elsewhere, expect a low chc of diurnally driven convection. Low pressure gradually pulls off the coast tonight with the chc of showers diminishing. Patchy stratus and MVFR vsby is possible late tonight. A very minimal chc of aftn/evening showers/tstms will continue Tuesday/Wednesday. An upper level ridge will build over the Southeast Conus by Thursday/Friday with primarily dry conditions expected.
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&& .MARINE... A weak frontal boundary was laying along the NC coast early this morning. This boundary will gradually shift offshore by Tue. Otherwise, the combination of Bermuda High pressure and a persistent trough sitting over the Mid Atlc region, will maintain southerly winds less than 15 kt thru at least Wed night. Seas 2-3 ft. Waves 1-2 ft. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...TMG

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