Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 301115 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 715 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...THEN CROSSES THE REGION AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATER FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT TODAY...AS A TROF MOVES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLC REGION LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENG. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...CHC POPS (30-50%) FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN ACRS NNW AREAS DURING THE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENG...LOWERING TO 14-20% ACRS FAR SE VA/CSTL NE NC. A FEW TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. PARTLY SUNNY WITH HI TEMPS IN THE LWR 90S...EXCEPT MID TO UPR 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE CST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... TONIGHT AND FRIDAY... THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACRS THE FA THIS EVENG/TNGT AND MOVES OFFSHR FRI MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS (30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THRU EARLY FRI MORNG. PCPN QUICKLY PUSHES S/E BY LATE FRI MORNG...SO THAT MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY ON FRI. DID MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS ACRS EXTRM SE AREAS INTO MIDDAY FRI. OTHERWISE...HI PRES AND DRIER AIR BLDS INTO AND OVR THE REGION DURING FRI. LO TEMPS TNGT IN THE UPR 60S NW TO THE MID 70S SE. HI TEMPS ON FRI IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY... HI PRES WILL REMAIN OVR THE AREA FOR FRI NGT AND SAT. DRY WX WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HUMIDITY LEVELS START TO INCREASE AGAIN ON SAT...DUE TO SFC WINDS FM THE SSW. LOWS FRI NGT IN THE 60S TO LWR 70S. HIGHS ON SAT IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SW CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY CANADA. GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT...THEN FLATTEN OUT SUN WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON. FRONT STALLS AND DISSIPATES OVER FAR SRN VA/NC SAT NIGHT. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY NE NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30% POPS/PRIMARILY FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME ON SUN/TAPERED TO 20% FAR SRN VA AND DRY ELSEWHERE). WILL MAINTAIN 30-40% POPS NE NC FOR MON DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS THIS IS 5 DAYS OUT...POPS AROUND 20% NORTH. KEEPING POPS AROUND 20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID 80S/AROUND 90 F ALONG THE COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 11Z...A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY THIS MORNING ACROSS AREA TAF TERMINALS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. SSE WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY. EXPECT INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN N/W OF KRIC...AND BY MID AFTN ACROSS COASTAL TERMINALS. THERE IS A CHC FOR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. BEST CHCS ARE ACROSS NW SECTIONS, SO HAVE GONE WITH VICINITY THUNDER AT RIC, VICINITY SHRA AT SBY. CHANCES A BIT LOWER, AND LATER IN THE DAY OVER SE TERMINALS (PHF/ORF/ECG), SO HAVE KEPT OUT FOR NOW. WILL RE- EVALUATE WITH 12Z TAFS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S/SW AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 15 TO 18 KNOTS PSBL. OUTLOOK...A CHC FOR TSTMS CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY, AND WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHC FOR TSTMS MAINLY SOUTH ON MONDAY. && .MARINE... LATEST OBS REFLECT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING. HAVE NOTED WINDS TO ~15 KT ACROSS NORTHERN BAY ZONES...AS WINDS HAVE NUDGED UPWARD EARLY TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHARPENING LEE TROUGH WEST OF THE WATERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL PUSH TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...CROSSING THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING STALLED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY AFTN. WINDS TURN AROUND FROM THE W-SW TODAY TO THE NNW BY LATE TONIGHT. NOT ANTICIPATING A STRONG COOL SURGE ON FRI...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NNE BY MIDDAY FRI...BECOMING ESE BY LATE IN THE DAY/FRI EVENING. WINDS THEN TURN BACK TO THE SSW FOR FRI NGT AND SAT...AS THE FRONT WEAKENS JUST TO OUR SSE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS REMAIN SSW SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, AS IT BECOMES DOMINANT WX FEATURE. WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT IN THE BAY...BUILDING TO 2-3 FT THIS EVENG. SEAS 2-3 FT EARLY...BUILDING TO 3-4 FT LATE, HIGHEST OUTER WATERS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... SLY CHANNELING HAS RESULTED IN SOME NUISANCE-TYPE TIDAL ANOMALIES ON THE ORDER OF A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AT BISHOPS HEAD. WATER LEVELS LOOK TO APPROACH, BUT JUST FALL SHORT OF MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS WITH ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT...JUST BEFORE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...MAM MARINE...MAM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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