Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 271900 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON..THEN CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... STILL SOME UNCERTAINITIES WRT THE WX ACROSS THE AREA NEXT 6-12 HRS. SO BASED THE FCST FOR NEXT SVRL HRS OFF OF CRNT RADAR/SFC TRENDS. BAND OF SHWRS/TSTRMS MOVG EAST ACROSS SRN TIER VA AND NE NC CNTYS WILL CONT TO MOVE EAST SO KEPT THE LIKELY POPS THERE. JUST SOME SHWRS NOTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA ATTM. VSBY SAT LOOP SHOWING PARTIAL THINNING OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS PIEDMONT AREAS. SHORT RANGE MOS NUMBERS SHOW TMPS QUICKLY RISING INTO THE 80S IF ADDNTL HEATING CAN OCCUR. SO LEFT HIGH TMPS ALONE FOR NOW (85-90). WRT CONVECTION LATER TODAY...MAIN ACTION SHIFTS TO THE S/W ENERGY OVR KY PROGGED TO DRIFT SE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVE. CRNT TRAJECTORY TRACKS MOST OF THE CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF I64. HOWEVER..STILL EXPECT ADDNTL CONVECTION TO DVLP OVR THE MTS THEN MERGE WITH THE ADVANCING S/W ENERGY. SVR PTNTL STILL EXISTS IF TMPS ARE ABLE TO RISE TO FCST LEVELS. STAY TUNED. PVS DSCN: MADE SOME CHANGES TO GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS SFC OBS AND MODEL GUIDANCE. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR LINE OF CONVECTION MARCHING EAST ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT ATTM. HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON THE CRNT TRENDS...SO INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS SRN MOST COUNTIES NEXT SVRL HRS AS THIS LINE MOVES EAST.. VSBY SAT LOOP SHOWING SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AHEAD OF IT TO KEEP THE LINE GOING. LOWERED TMPS BY A CATEGORY MOST PLACES (CLOSER TO LAV GUID) GIVEN ALL THE CLOUDS AND PCPN FROM THE MORNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. TUFF CALL FOR SERN COUNTIES AS TMPS MAY GET TO 90 THERE...BUT THEN DROP IN ANY CONVECTION BY ERLY AFTRN. MAIN QUESTION FOR THIS AFTRN IS HOW MUCH HEATING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FIRST DEPARTING S/W AND AHEAD OF NXT APPRCHG S/W NOW OVR KY VLLY. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THIS COMPLEX TAKING A MORE SOUTHERLY ROUTE (ACROSS SRN HALF OF VA / NC THIS EVENING. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE FA OUTLOOKED IN SLGHT RISK WITH A RECENTLY ISSUED PWO FOR AREAS TO OUR WEST. STAY TUNED. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... THE STRONG COLD FRONT QUICKLY PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND RE-FIRE IN INTENSITY DUE TO THE ADDED LIFT. OVERALL... PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS UNTIL THE FRONT CAN PUSH WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS DIMINISHED ON MONDAY...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH AS A COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW-N. WINDS AND SUNSHINE WILL BE KEY PLAYERS IN HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY. CURRENT FORECAST RANGES FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO 90-95 SE. BNDRY PROGGED TO STALL INVOF GULF STREAM MON NIGHT AND TUE WHILE A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ALONG SERN CSTL AREAS MON EVENING. LOWS IN THE 60S...XCPT L70S SERN CSTL AREAS. DRY TUESDAY ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE 50S. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE L80S...U70S AT THE BEACHES. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S W TO MID 60S AT THE BEACHES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF DIGS OVR THE MID ATLC REGION TUE NGT INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE OH AND MS VALLEYS THU AFTN THRU SAT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OFF THE MID ATLC CST TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN DRIFTS BACK TWD THE CST FRI NGT THRU SAT. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN HAVE ADDED SLGT CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT AND SAT. A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL DOMINATE THE AREA TUE NGT THRU THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S WED AND THU MORNGS...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...AND RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT MORNG. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... CLOUD COVER WAS PUTTING A DAMPER ON CONVECTION TODAY. BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST MAY HELP TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCT TSTMS LATER TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. IN THE MEANTIME...AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS/ECG AREA WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER THE START OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. INCLUDED A FEW OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AT ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT ECG. THESE COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH TSTMS. WEST WINDS DEVELOP IN THE MORNING BEHIND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. THESE WINDS DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE AND SHOULD END THE PCPN. THE FRONT ITSELF MOVES THROUGH EARLY IN THE AFTN. AT THIS POINT AND APPEARS TO BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. NO IFR WAS PLACED IN THE TAFS. MVFR FOG IS PSBL AT SBY AND ECG PRIOR TO THE W/SW WINDS. OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL NEAR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD IFR IS NOT INDICATED AT THIS TIME. && .MARINE... NO HEADLINES XPCD THRU MON. A CDFNT PUSHES APPROACHES THE MID ATLC REGION TDA...THEN MOVE ACRS THE WTRS AND OFF THE CST LATE TNGT THROUGH MON NGT. SSW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT THROUGH TNGT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG. WAVES/SEAS LIKELY TO RISE A FOOT OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO INCRSD SPDS AND DIRECTION CHG TO NNW (MON NGT INTO TUE). GENERALLY NNE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS EXPECTED FOR TUE THRU THU. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD NEAR TERM...BMD/MPR SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...LSA MARINE...ALB

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