Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KAKQ 270509
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
109 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016
High pressure remains centered well off the North Carolina coast
through tonight, then pushes north to a position off the Mid
Atlantic coast on Friday. Low pressure will strengthen near the
Bahamas Friday night, and slowly move towards the South Carolina
coast Saturday night through Monday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
The current analysis indicates high pressure at the surface and
aloft centered off well off the Carolina coast, with sfc low
pressure near the Bahamas. A mild evening is occurring with
temperatures in the 70s across the area. Norfolk reached 90 F for
the 1st time this year and RIC/SBY fell just short at 89 F (see
climate section for details). Scattered showers/tstms across the
mtns have dissipated this evening. A weak upper level shortwave
will track across the region tonight. However, this is just
expected to bring passing mid-clouds as there is minimal upper
support and minimal elevated instability. Warm and somewhat humid
with lows mainly in the mid to upper 60s.
Forecast soundings again not real enthusiastic about aftn tstm
chcs for Fri aftn/evening, with just some minimal forcing due to
lee trof and weak instability along/east of the mountains. So,
will generally maintain ~20% POPS Fri aftn/evening. Highs on Fri
in the mid to upr 80s/around 90 F well inland, an increase in sse
flow should keep it a tad cooler than Thu along the coast with
highs in the upr 70s to lwr-mid 80s.
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mostly clear to partly cloudy Fri ngt with lows in the lwr to mid
60s. For Sat, models remain in generally good agreement at keeping
the deeper moisture associated with the low well off the SE cst
to our south. They are even hinting at some large-scale subsidence
so have lowered POPS to only 20% confined to ne NC in the aftn/mostly
sunny elsewhere with highs in the mid to upr 80s inland/piedmont
areas, and in the upr 70s to lwr 80s along the cst. Deeper
moisture finally pushes NNW into the cwa later Sat night into Sun
morning, with PWATS rising to 1.50 to 2.00" by Sun morning into
southern 1/2 of the CWA. Exact track of sfc low into the SE coast
will determine sensible wx on Sunday, but overall looks like a
very warm and humid airmass will be in place and should be
conducive to at least scattered showers and tstms, so have raised
POPS to 40-50% most areas. When track become more certain will
potentially need to raise POPS more although the setup does not
look like the complete washout, rather expecting periods of
potentially moderate to heavy rain alternating with variably
cloudy skies and rain- free conds. Highs genly in the upper 70s to
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The forecast for next week will be largely dependent on the
evolution of the low pressure system expected to develop off the
southeast U.S. coast within the next few days. 12Z suite of model
guidance continues to support the development of this low by this
weekend and NHC has high confidence of it developing into a tropical
or sub-tropical low within next 5 days...and then drifting NW into
South Carolina. Even if it does develop into a named storm, its
impacts would most likely be minimal across our FA...with the
exception of increased shower/thunderstorm chances and possible
elevated seas/increased rip current risk Mon-Wed. For now, will
continue to carry chc pops (30-50%) Mon-Tues...lowering a bit by
next Wed/Thurs. Temperatures, tempered somewhat by clouds and
possible convection, should be near normal through the period. Highs
mainly in the upper 70s to low 80s. Remaining mild at night due to
influx of higher dew point air. Lows in the 60s.
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Hi pres sfc-aloft off the NC cst will dominate the wx during the
06Z TAF pd. FEW-SCT cu once agn xpcd midday/aftn...w/ isold- sct
tstms psbl W of the TAF sites. SSW wnds rmn aob 15 kt. No
significant precipitation is expected through Saturday. Chcs for
shras/tstms increase for Sun through Tue as lo pres tracks NW to
the SC cst.
S-SW winds 5-15 kt will continue through midday Sat before winds
become more ESE at similar speeds into Sunday. Seas will remain 2-3
ft thru Sat. Watching for possible low pressure development off the
southeast coast by this weekend...which may bring increased
seas/deteriorated conditions to the local waters Sun/Mon. For
now...SE winds avg 10-15 kt Sun/Mon...seas may approach 5 ft...esp
off VA/NE NC.
The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41".
May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at
Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond
1. 9.13" 1889
2. 8.98" 1873
3. 8.87" 1972
4. 8.67" 1886
5. 8.59" 2003
6. 8.41" 2016 (to date)
* Norfolk had their first 90 degree day Thursday. The other
climate sites are still waiting for their first day.
(Avg Date / Last Yr):
* RIC: May 13 / May 12
* ORF: May 17 / May 12
* SBY: May 27 / Jun 1
KAKQ Radar will remain offline for maintanence through Friday