Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 250110 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 910 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS STATIONARY NEAR THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... SFC HI PRES SITS NR THE MDATLC CST THIS AFTN...PROVIDING DRY/SEASONABLE WX. THE SFC HI MOVES TO OFF THE SE CST BY LT TNGT. LO LVL FLO BEGINS TO SHIFT TO S OVRNGT WHILE RMNG LGT. CONDS RMNG MNLY SKC...W/ LO TEMPS L-M40S INLAND TO THE U40S AT THE CST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE SFC HI RMNS OFF THE SE CST INTO TUE...RESULTING IN CONTG LO LVL FLO FM THE SSW. MDLS SUGGEST A SLGT BREAKDOWN IN RIDGE ALOFT MON AFTN/NGT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLD SHRAS TO BRUSH MNLY NW LOCATIONS IN FA. OTRW...WILL KEEP POPS AOB 10%. HI TEMPS MON FM THE L-M60S AT THE BEACHES...U60S-L70S JUST INLAND FM THE BAY/OCN TO ARND 80F ALG AND W OF THE I 95 CORRIDOR. LO TEMPS MON NGT IN THE U50S-L60S. A CDFNT WILL BE SETTLING S THROUGH THE NE/GREAT LAKES MON NGT INTO TUE. WIDESPREAD CLDS AND AN AREA OF SHRAS WILL BE NR THE FNT AS IT APPROACHES FM THE N. DOWNSLOPING SW FLO XPCD TO KEEP MUCH OF THE RA AWAY FM THE FA UNTIL (LT) TUE AFTN. WILL HAVE INCRSG CLDNS N-PARTLY CLOUDY S TUE...W/ POPS AVGG 30-40% N AND 10-20% S TUE AFTN. WARM TUE W/ HI TEMPS FM THE U70S-ARND 80F E TO THE M80S W. THE CDFNT PRESSES SLOLY S ACRS THE FA TUE NGT-WED MRNG...XPCD TO STALL OVR NC BY WED AFTN. HIGHER PROB FOR SHRAS-MAYBE TSTMS TUE NGT. COOLING NE WNDS ON WED W/ THE FNT TO THE S OF THE FA. MDLS SHOWING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CLDS...ESP VA/NE NC LOCATIONS ON WED...THOUGH HIGHEST PROB FOR RA MIGHT BE S AND W OF THE FA. WILL HAVE POPS 30-40% W AND SW...20% CNTRL AND SE AND 10% NE ON WED. LO TEMPS TUE NGT FM THE U50S N TO L60S S. HI TEMPS WED L-M60S NE TO 70-80F SW. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA WED NIGHT...THEN REMAINS STALLED OVER THE AREA THRU THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THIS BOUNDARY NEARBY WILL CARRY CHC POPS THRU THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE NEXT WEEKEND WITH INCREASING POPS BY SUNDAY. NEXT SATURDAY IS LOOKING TO BE MAINLY DRY ATTM. HIGHS THU/FRI FROM THE LOW 70S EASTERN SHORE TO 75-80 DEG INLAND. HIGHS SAT/SUN FROM THE UPPER 60S EASTERN SHORE TO 70-75 DEG INLAND. LOWS TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST DURING THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. STLT IMAGERY INDICATES SOME SCT HIGH CLOUDS OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECT A MAINLY CLEAR SKY BUT WITH SCT CU DURING THE DAY MONDAY BASED ON NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE FROM THE SW ON MONDAY WHICH MAY GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AT SOME LOCATIONS. OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY WITH SCT TSTMS PSBL LATE IN THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/TSTMS.
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&& .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE VA TIDEWATER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NE AND E. SEAS CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE SCA FOR ANZ658 AT 5 PM. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH E-SE WINDS AOB 10KT. THE HIGH THEN SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY AND WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING....10-15KT CHES BAY...15-20KT COASTAL WATERS...10KT AVERAGE RIVERS/SOUND. WAVES 2-3 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT MON NIGHT/TUESDAY BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 KT BAY/RIVERS/SOUND...AND 15-20 KT COASTAL WATERS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM...SCA WINDS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND DURING THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...SSW WINDS MAY BUILD SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/WED MORN WITH WINDS BECOMING N-NE 1O-15 KT POST-FRONTAL. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR SHORT TERM...ALB LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...LSA MARINE...JDM

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