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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 140231
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1031 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN HAS EXITED SERN VA/NE NC...BUT KEPT SLGHT CHC
THERE UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR THOSE AREAS. ALSO ADDED SLGHT CHC POPS TO
LWR MD ERN SHORE DUE TO WRAPARND MSTR PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH LATER
TONITE. OTW...DCRG CLDNS AND TURNING COOLER AS MDT CAA OVRSPRD
RGN. LOWS MSTLY IN THE 60S...PSBL U50S ACROSS XTREME NWRN CNTYS.

A BUSY EVENING WITH NMRS REPORTS OF TREES DOWN AS STORMS PACKED
WINDS BTWN 60-80 MPH AS THEY CAME THROUGH. SEE LSRAKQ FOR DETAILS.
THOUSANDS STILL WITHOUT POWER AS OF THIS WRITING. ALSO...ORF TIED
AT RECORD HIGH TMP TDY. SEE RERORF.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON FRI...THEN
LINGER NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTN AND EVENING BEFORE PUSHING OUT
TO SEA AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WEAK IMPULSE WILL DIVE SSE INTO THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH AND HELP TO SET OFF SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF I-95 IN VA (INCLUDING
THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE AND PORTIONS OF NE NC). THE BEST CHANCES
FOR MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION IS OVER THE NRN NECK AND MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE. ALL PRECIP ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OVERALL...THE DAY WILL
START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY AND THEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP IN THE AFTN DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
AND ALSO BECAUSE OF THE UPPER TROUGH PRODUCING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY. MEANWHILE...DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT
IN HIGH TEMPS AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...OR IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S (MID-UPPER 70S IMMEDIATE COAST).

TO REITERATE...THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OUT TO SEA BY SAT MORNING.
THE DAY WILL START OUT NICE AND COOL WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S (OR NEAR NORMAL). SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW AND SLIDES TO THE SE (AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE)
SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. AS THE HIGH SLIDES SE OF THE AREA...WINDS WILL
CHANGE FROM N-NW TO S-SW AND RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SAT SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW-MID 80S (UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S IMMEDIATE COAST). A ZONAL WEATHER
PATTERN DEVELOPS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SUN INTO MON AND
OPENS THE DOOR FOR WEAK IMPULSES OF ENERGY/MOISTURE TO CROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING THIS TIME. EXPECT INCREASING HIGH AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ON SUN WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
FROM NW TO SE THROUGHOUT THE AFTN AND EVENING. FOR SUN...LOWS IN
THE 60S AND HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE HI PRES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST LEADING
TO WARM TEMPS AND SWLY FLOW ON AVG OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. CHCS FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE ARND FOR SUN NGT THRU LATE TUE/TUE
NGT...AS A COUPLE OF TROFS AFFECT THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
MOVING THRU LATE TUE/TUE NGT. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD INTO THE REGION
DURING WED AND THU. LOW TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE UPR 60S
TO LWR 70S...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 02Z...PCPN HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO
NW OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. GUSTY N/NW WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED FRIDAY. THERE IS A SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS BUT DID NOT INCLUDE
IN THE TAF.

OUTLOOK...VFR AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
SCA`S REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THRU FRIDAY AFTN...MAINLY FOR
WINDS OVER THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS. A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT. SW WINDS 15 TO 20
KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...THEN
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW THEN N TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING BEHIND THE
FRONT. MODELS STILL HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS TONIGHT/EARLY FRI BEHIND THE FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT
HIGH ENOUGH FOR A GALE WARNING. IN ADDITION...SOME WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 50 KT ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATER TODAY.

CONDITIONS START TO IMPROVE BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SAT...AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THE HIGH WILL BUILD RIGHT OVER THE WATERS SAT
AFTN...THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL.
LVL SHUD FALL BLO FLOOD STAGE LATE TONITE. THE BLACKWATER AT
FRANKLIN ALSO CONTINUES WITH A FLOOD WARNING.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM/DAP
MARINE...MAS
HYDROLOGY...MPR