Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 221734 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 134 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure along with a weak frontal boundary will remain stalled along or just off the Southeast coast into Friday morning. High pressure builds over the local area later Friday into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Late this morning, sfc low pressure was cntrd just off the SC coast, with a stationary frontal boundary situated just off the NC and SC coasts. Meanwhile, sfc high pressure covers the NE U.S. The coastal features will remain nearly stationary this aftn, while high pressure pushes east to the New England coast. The good news is that the heaviest rain that we`ve been dealing with the past few days is done. The bad news is that the rain is not completely finished, and additional intermittent rain/showers will impact mainly the lower 2/3rds of the FA throughout today. So, will have 30-50% pops acrs the srn half of the region into early this evening, and just 10-20% pops acrs far nrn portions of the FA. Remaining partly cloudy to cloudy this aftn, with highs ranging fm the mid 70s to lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The combination of nrn stream energy and the coastal low/associated upr trough weakening, will finally result in pops shifting farther south beginning tonight but especially Fri/Fri night. Will carry slight chc to low end chc pops (20-30%) across sern areas only. Surface high pressure will build over the by region Fri night for dry wx everywhere. Lows tonight in the 60s to low 70s. Highs Friday from the upr 70s coast to the low/mid 80s inland. Lows Friday night in the 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A backdoor cold front drops across the region during Saturday. Meanwhile, a trough digs over the Northeast US through Sunday as an upper level ridge builds over the Mississippi Valley. That ridge then slowly amplifies and pushes east for the first half of next week. 00z/Thu suit of models have continued to trend weaker w/the associated cold front completely through the area on Sunday, with very little rainfall expected coincident with the frontal passage. Surface high pressure is progged to become centered over eastern Canada with a piece of the High ridging down into the northern mid- Atlantic states Sunday night into Tue (rather than actually building over the local area). While deep moisture will be pushed south of the local area, this pattern suggests that the sensible weather will still feature a persistent easterly low level flow with skies to avg partly to mostly cloudy Sunday (and perhaps Mon/Tue as well). Have also lingered 20% POPS for much of the area Sunday, shifting to the Sw zones Sun night/Mon. Highs range from the mid/upr 70s Eastern Shore to the low/mid 80s elsewhere Saturday. Highs will average in the 70s with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s Sun-Wed. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The heaviest of the rain appears to have come to an end this morning. MVFR cigs continue through the day with some intermittent rain...except should see some VFR conditions develop at KRIC/KSBY this afternoon. Winds across the area are generally onshore around 10-15 knots with occasional gusts. Outlook: Gradual improving conditions are expected by Friday as high pressure continues to build just north of the area. VFR conditions can be expected by Saturday. Another frontal boundary approaches the area Sunday into Monday. && .MARINE...
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Latest obs reflect ENE flow across the waters as Pressure gradient remains compressed between high pressure well north into New England and weakening low pressure lingering along/just off the SE coast. Seas have dropped off to 4 ft or less for NC waters so have cancelled the SCA headline there (remaining in effect for the rest of the coastal waters and mouth of the Bay). Winds of 15kt gradually drop off from late this aftn through tonight as pressure gradient slackens a bit further. Winds turn more northerly and pick up a bit by Fri night as weak low finally nudges offshore. A weak Cold front drops across the waters late Friday Night into Saturday, stalling just south of the waters Sat night and Sunday before sliding south into the Carolinas on Monday. CAA surge behind the front appears minimal...but SCA for hazardous seas possible over the weekend as longer period swell begins to mix in Friday night through Sunday.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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The Cashie River at Windsor will be cresting over 15 ft this aftn (major flooding begins at 13 ft), and will linger at this level into the evening before slowly subsiding. The Cashie River is not expected to fall below flood stage until early Friday afternoon.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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As of 17Z, tidal departures continue to avg +0.5 to 1.0 ft over the marine area, but no tidal flooding is occurring and no advisories are needed at this time. Will continue to monitor however, as tidal anomalies may build nwd through the Bay by later this aftn which could lead to some marginal tidal flooding by this evening farther up into the Bay. Moderate risk for Rips expected for Thu.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ634-656.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM/TMG SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...JDM MARINE...LKB/MAM HYDROLOGY...AKQ TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ

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