Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KAKQ 190012
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
812 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016
A weak frontal boundary will stall over North Carolina
tonight...then be slow to dissipate Friday into Sunday. A cold
front crosses the region Sunday night...to be followed by high
pressure building into the area early next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A break from the hot wx this afternoon. Ill-defined sfc boundary
has drifted S to near the VA-NC border...some drier air has filtered
into most of the FA on light NNW winds. SCT-BKN CU so far this
afternoon...most of the convection limited to areas in ern NC S of
the Albemarle Sound. Will be keeping 20-40% POPS for mainly S and
SE areas of FA into the overnight hours. Otherwise...SKC-partly
cloudy N...vrb clouds-partly cloudy S. Lows 70-75F inland...m-u70s
at the coast.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Fri into Sat will feature the remnant sfc frontal boundary
lingering/slow to dissipate over far SRN VA-NRN NC. Very weak
ridge aloft w/ any forcing quite weak. Will be warm/humid with
vrb clouds and mainly diurnally driven convection (locally heavy
rain possible). Best pops will be along/S of I-64 Fri
(30-50%)...and from 30-40% on the Eastern Shore Sat to 40-50%
elsewhere. Highs Fri in the u80s-l90s. Lows Fri night in the 70s.
Highs Sat mainly 85 to 90F.
Most models showing period of limited convective potential Sat
night into early Sun afternoon as low level flow becomes more SSW.
A much more significant cold front will be approaching from the NW
Sun afternoon as trough aloft sharpens across the Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley. Have increased POPs (mainly W) Sun afternoon as that front
crosses the mountains. Both GFS/ECMWF has similar timing to cold
front arriving across far WNW counties by Sun evening. Lows Sat
night in the 70s. Highs Sun in the u80s-l90s.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cold front will push acrs the region and off the coast Sun ngt
into Mon morning producing at least sctd showers and tstms. High
pressure will then bld into and ovr the area for Mon thru Wed,
then slides offshr during Thu. Expect Dry wx and comfortable
temps and humidity levels Mon thru at least Wed, then dry and just
slgtly warmer and a bit more humidity for Thu. Lows in the upr 60s
to lower 70s Sun ngt, in the upr 50s to mid 60s Mon ngt, in the
lower to mid 60s Tue ngt, and in the 60s Wed ngt. Highs in the
lower to mid 80s Mon, Tue, and Wed, and ranging thru the 80s Thu.
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --VFR conditions at the terminals at this time. An area of showers
and thunderstorms over NE NC may affect ECG over the next 2 hours
with localized and brief IFR, but the other TAF sites should
remain dry and VFR this evening. Guidance suggests visibilities
will be reduced to MVFR at SBY overnight, and have opted to bring
in a TEMPO group of 4SM BR at that site. Otherwise, VFR conditions
expected on Friday, although there could be an isolated
thunderstorm late Friday afternoon across south VA and NE NC.
-- End Changed Discussion --
No headlines in the short term tngt thru Sat. A frontal boundary
was laying acrs nrn NC late this aftn. A couple of weak boundaries
will affect the area tngt into Sat, with a warm front followed by
a strong cold front affecting the area Sat ngt into Mon morning.
Expect winds 10 kt or less fm vrbl directions tngt thru Sun
morng, then SW 5 to 15 kt late Sun/Sun evening becoming NW or N 10
to 15 kt late Sun ngt into Mon morning. High pressure blds into
and over the region for Mon thru Tue. Waves 1-2 ft, seas arnd 2
ft thru Sun, then waves 1-3 ft and seas 2-4 ft late Sun ngt thru