Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 220853 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 353 AM EST THU JAN 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE FRIDAY...THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... WK SFC HI PRES (~1022MB) SITS OVR THE FA. WIDESPREAD LO CLDS/AREAS OF FG COVERING MOST OF ERN PORTION OF FA (NOT APPARENTLY ON THE WTRS THOUGH). PATCHY FG IS PSBL ELSW. HAVE ADDED FREEZING FG TO MOST AREAS AS TEMPS ARE AOB 32F OVR A LARGE PORTION OF THE FA...AND XPCD TO RMN SO THROUGH THE EARLY MRNG HRS. ITS BORDERLINE ATTM ON WHETHER A DENSE FG ADVISORY IS NEEDED...SOME OBS HOVERING ARND 1/4SM...THOUGH CIGS AOA 100 FT. WILL CONT TO MONITOR. SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NOW TO COVER FOR PSBL ICY SPOTS ALG W/ RESTRICTED VSBYS. OTRW...P/MSNY TDA (THOUGH XPCG CLDS/FG TO LINGER LONGEST INVOF ERN SHORE INTO THE MID MRNG HRS) AS SFC HI PRES CONTS TO BUILD IN FM THE W. HI TEMPS IN THE L/M40S ON THE ERN SHORE...AND FM THE M/U40S N TO L50S S ELSW. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONT TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRENDS REGARDING BIG WEATHER MAKER FOR LATE IN THE WEEK ON INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL DEVELOP FROM A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES FROM THE 4 CORNERS REGION THU NGT TO THE GULF COAST FRI. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY ON FRI THEN TRACK NE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST FRI NGT AND SAT. ATTM...P-TYPE XCPD TO BE PREDOMINANTLY RAIN...IF NOT ALL RAIN FOR THE FA. WILL KEEP SOME PSBL MIXED IP ACRS THE N FRI NGT AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. POPS TO BE AT 80% FOR ALL AREAS FRI NGT INTO SAT MORNING AS SYSTEM BECOMES AMPLIFIED AND ALL MODELS DEPICT STRONG UVM THROUGHOUT THE CWA (WITH SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING). HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE KEPT DOWN IN THE 40S AS CLOUDS RAPIDLY INCREASE BY LATE MORNING/AFTN FROM SW TO NE. LO TEMPS FRI NIGHT IN THE L30S N TO UPR 30S/L40S SE. GIVEN TRACK ON MDLS ATTM...CONCERN BY SAT WILL BE PTNTL DRY SLOT ARRIVING FM THE SW...RESULTING IN BULK OF PCPN WINDING DOWN/ENDING BEFORE ANY AIR COLD ENOUGH FM THE PCPN ENDING AS MIXED SN/RA OR ALL SN (IN THE AFTN/EVE). STILL...WILL KEEP MENTION OF RA/SN IN BY AFTN ACRS N/NW 1/3 OF THE CWA GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY (IF FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OCCURS MAY SEE SOMEWHAT MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR ALL SNOW SAT AFTN OVER NNW 1/2 OF THE FA). WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS SAT MRNG...TAPERING OFF FM W TO E IN THE AFTN. HI TEMPS FM THE U30S/ARND 40F NORTH TO U40S IN CSTL NE NC. FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT QPF EXPECTED OVERALL...AVERAGING 0.75 TO 1.00" NW TO 1.00-1.50" ELSW. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... BRIEF RIDGING EARLY SUNDAY WILL KEEP THE AREA PRECIP-FREE FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK WARM-UP REMAINS LOW WITH HIGHS ONLY ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT (MID-UPPER 40S...AROUND 50 ALBEMARLE SOUND). AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSING THE OH/TN VALLEYS ON SUN IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MON...BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP TO THE AREA SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. PRECIP-TYPE WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF COLD RAIN AND/OR SNOW WITH QUICK TRANSITIONS FROM ONE TYPE TO THE NEXT ANTICIPATED ATTM. LOWS SUN NIGHT LOW 30S NW TO MID 30S SE. HIGHS MON MID-UPPER 30S N TO LOW-MID 40S S (UPPER 40S FAR SE COAST AND ALONG ALBEMARLE SOUND). UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE BEFORE PUSHING EWD OFF THE SE COAST. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EARLY TUE WITH A FEW MAKING IT OVER LAND...OTHERWISE INLAND AREAS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AND COOL. INLAND HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S...OTHERWISE HIGHS IN THE 30S NRN NECK AND MD/VA LOWER EASTERN SHORE. MEANWHILE...YET ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUE INTO PA/NRN VA TUE NIGHT THUS KEEPING THE COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE. PRECIP WITH THIS CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE LOCAL FA FOR NOW. DRYING NW FLOW DEVELOPS ON WED AND TEMPS SHOW LITTLE TO NO CHANGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE 20S. HIGHS WED IN THE LOW-MID 40S (MID-UPPER 30S NRN NECK AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). LOWS WED NIGHT MID-UPPER 20S NW TO UPPER 20S-LOW 30S SE. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LO PRES WELL OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL MOVE NE AND INTO THE NRN ATLC DURING TODAY. MEANWHILE...SFC HI PRES WILL SLIDE FM THE CNTRL PLAINS EWRD INTO THE OH VALLEY. IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LINGER UNTIL 12Z TO 14Z THIS MORNG...ESPLY AT SBY...BUT MAY ALSO OCCUR BRIEFLY THRU THIS TIME PERIOD AT OTHER TAF SITES. THEN...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES FM LATE THIS MORNG INTO FRI AFTN...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO AND OVR THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHC FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME WET SNOW AT THE END FM FRI EVENG THRU SAT AFTN...AS LO PRES MOVES NE ALNG OR JUST OFF THE EAST CST. PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... SCA FLAGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SRN CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CURRITUCK LIGHT. NORTH WINDS 15-20KT (GUSTS AROUND 25KT SRN COASTAL WATERS) AND SEAS 4-5FT. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES EAST OF THE VA/NC BORDER AS OF 4 PM. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NEWD THIS EVENING AND PULL OFF THE DELMARVA/NJ COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN NW AND DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING...THEN BECOME MORE WLY BY THU MORNING WITH SPEEDS AOB 15KT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA THU INTO FRI AFTN. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PUSH OF COLD AIR THU NIGHT THAT RESULTS IN A NLY SURGE BTWN 10 PM AND 4 AM... HOWEVER SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA AOB 15KT. AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN TRACK NE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS LATE FRI EVENING INTO SAT... CONTINUING TO PUSH NE TWD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SAT NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY 15-20KT WITH GUSTS 25-30KT. WIND DIRECTION BECOMES ELY ON FRI...THEN VEERS TO S THEN W AS THE SYSTEM FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS THE LOW CROSSES THE WATERS. WINDS REMAIN WLY THRU SAT NIGHT/SUN. AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSING THE OH/TN VALLEYS ON SUN IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...TMG MARINE...TMG

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