Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 190012 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 812 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary will stall over North Carolina tonight...then be slow to dissipate Friday into Sunday. A cold front crosses the region Sunday night...to be followed by high pressure building into the area early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... A break from the hot wx this afternoon. Ill-defined sfc boundary has drifted S to near the VA-NC border...some drier air has filtered into most of the FA on light NNW winds. SCT-BKN CU so far this afternoon...most of the convection limited to areas in ern NC S of the Albemarle Sound. Will be keeping 20-40% POPS for mainly S and SE areas of FA into the overnight hours. Otherwise...SKC-partly cloudy N...vrb clouds-partly cloudy S. Lows 70-75F inland...m-u70s at the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Fri into Sat will feature the remnant sfc frontal boundary lingering/slow to dissipate over far SRN VA-NRN NC. Very weak ridge aloft w/ any forcing quite weak. Will be warm/humid with vrb clouds and mainly diurnally driven convection (locally heavy rain possible). Best pops will be along/S of I-64 Fri (30-50%)...and from 30-40% on the Eastern Shore Sat to 40-50% elsewhere. Highs Fri in the u80s-l90s. Lows Fri night in the 70s. Highs Sat mainly 85 to 90F. Most models showing period of limited convective potential Sat night into early Sun afternoon as low level flow becomes more SSW. A much more significant cold front will be approaching from the NW Sun afternoon as trough aloft sharpens across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Have increased POPs (mainly W) Sun afternoon as that front crosses the mountains. Both GFS/ECMWF has similar timing to cold front arriving across far WNW counties by Sun evening. Lows Sat night in the 70s. Highs Sun in the u80s-l90s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Cold front will push acrs the region and off the coast Sun ngt into Mon morning producing at least sctd showers and tstms. High pressure will then bld into and ovr the area for Mon thru Wed, then slides offshr during Thu. Expect Dry wx and comfortable temps and humidity levels Mon thru at least Wed, then dry and just slgtly warmer and a bit more humidity for Thu. Lows in the upr 60s to lower 70s Sun ngt, in the upr 50s to mid 60s Mon ngt, in the lower to mid 60s Tue ngt, and in the 60s Wed ngt. Highs in the lower to mid 80s Mon, Tue, and Wed, and ranging thru the 80s Thu. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR conditions at the terminals at this time. An area of showers and thunderstorms over NE NC may affect ECG over the next 2 hours with localized and brief IFR, but the other TAF sites should remain dry and VFR this evening. Guidance suggests visibilities will be reduced to MVFR at SBY overnight, and have opted to bring in a TEMPO group of 4SM BR at that site. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected on Friday, although there could be an isolated thunderstorm late Friday afternoon across south VA and NE NC.
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&& .MARINE... No headlines in the short term tngt thru Sat. A frontal boundary was laying acrs nrn NC late this aftn. A couple of weak boundaries will affect the area tngt into Sat, with a warm front followed by a strong cold front affecting the area Sat ngt into Mon morning. Expect winds 10 kt or less fm vrbl directions tngt thru Sun morng, then SW 5 to 15 kt late Sun/Sun evening becoming NW or N 10 to 15 kt late Sun ngt into Mon morning. High pressure blds into and over the region for Mon thru Tue. Waves 1-2 ft, seas arnd 2 ft thru Sun, then waves 1-3 ft and seas 2-4 ft late Sun ngt thru Tue. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...MRD MARINE...TMG

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