Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 161756 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 156 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front passes across the Mid Atlantic today. Cool Canadian high pressure builds into the region tonight and Tuesday, and then remains over the area through the remainder of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... No significant changes this morning as the cold front has pushed well south into NC as of late this morning. Rain will persist behind the front and slowly push east ending from west to east through the afternoon and early evening. North winds behind the front will keep temps fairly steady through the afternoon with temps dropping quickly later this evening and tonight as a secondary surge of cool air drops south. High temperatures were generally achieved this morning, with temperatures steady and falling into the low/mid 60s through the day, and perhaps into the upper 50s during periods of light rain. QPF will be minimal, and generally less than 0.25". && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Surface high pressure pushes the cold front well E and S of the region tonight, and then the high builds over the area by Tuesday. Mainly clear, cool, and dry conditions are expected. Lows tonight will generally be in the low/mid 40s, with some upper 30s over the Piedmont, and upper 40s at the coast. A few isolated pockets of frost are possible over the NW Piedmont counties. Highs Tuesday should generally be 60-65F under a sunny sky. Surface high pressure will settle over the region Tuesday night and Wednesday, providing continued clear, cool, and dry conditions. Near ideal radiational cooling conditions are expected Tuesday night as any wind will diminish quickly Tuesday evening. Low temperatures range from the upper 30s to low 40s inland, with some mid 30s and possible frost possible in rural outlying areas. Closer to the coast, expect lows of 45-50F for coastal SE VA/NE NC. Highs Wednesday moderate to 65-70F. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A very tranquil weather pattern setting up for the entire medium range period with dry conditions and mild/warm temperatures. Sfc high pressure will be centered from the TN Valley to the local area Wed night, with clear skies and another seasonably chilly night with lows mainly in the 40s (except 50s at the immediate coast). A weak cold front brushes by the NE CONUS Thu/Thu night, but this will have little impact on the local area, merely shunting the sfc high a little to the S/SW. Mostly sunny with highs from the upper 60s to the mid 70s. After that, broad upper level ridge slowly builds E from the TN/OH Valley and amplifies into next weekend. Dry/mostly sunny/clear conditions to prevail, with temperatures rising a few degrees each day Fri-Sun. Highs will avg in the low-mid 70s Fri, trending up to the upper 70s/near 80 F by next Sunday. Lows will avg in the upper 40s/lower 50s Fri morning, trending up to be in the 50s to around 60 F by Sun morning. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Post frontal rainfall will continue to move east this afternoon across primarily PHF...ORF and ECG. Rain has ended at both RIC and SBY. Rainfall across the southeast should be mainly light and will taper off across southeast VA by 21-22z and ECG by 22-00z. Conditions were mostly VFR with some MVFR cigs limited to far southeast VA and eastern NC. Ceilings will lift across the southeast to VFR through late afternoon and early evening. NNW winds in the wake of the front will continue to average 10-15kt, and gusts up to 20-25kt along the coast. High pressure and a drier airmass move into the region overnight and will persist over the area through Friday.
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&& .MARINE... Sfc cold front slower to arrive by about 3 hours as previously anticipated. Winds generally SW with speeds averaging 15-20kt Bay/Ocean/Lwr James River; 10kt elsewhere. Winds become N and increase as cold air advection processes commence. Speeds will average 10-20kt all waters through today. Seas build to 4-5ft north/5-6ft south by this aftn with waves 3-4ft. All SCA flags are now in effect for today through Tue. Added York and Rappahannock Rivers into SCA as well...ending at 700 AM Tue morning. A secondary push of strong winds is anticipated for tonight as high pressure builds in from the west, colder air surges down from the north, and the pressure gradient tightens up again. Speeds increase to an average of 15-25kt tonight. Seas build to 4-6ft north of Cape Charles Light and 5-8ft south this evening through mid morning Tue. Waves average 4-5ft during the same time. SCA flags will remain in effect through at least Tue aftn for Bay/Ocean/Sound/Lwr James River. Seas south of Parramore Island stay elevated to around 5ft through Tue evening...with coastal waters from VA/NC border being the last to subside below 5ft by midnight Tue night. Otherwise, high pressure resides over/near the waters Tue aftn through the rest of the week with conditions becoming more benign. Winds generally NE-E Tue evening through Wed... becoming more variable but remaining light Wed night through Thu night. Main high pressure slides offshore but is reinforced by another sfc high building over the ern half of the US. Winds to become more NW-N Fri/Fri night. Wind speeds sub-SCA Tue night through Fri night. Seas generally 2-3ft; waves 1-2ft. && .EQUIPMENT... The KAKQ radar will be down through Wednesday, October 18th for radome repairs. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634- 638. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ633-650-652. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ654-656. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB NEAR TERM...AJZ/JAO SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...AJZ/JAO MARINE...BMD EQUIPMENT...

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