Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 241707 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 107 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure prevails over the region through Tuesday. A weak cold front drops into the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The current surface analysis continues to depict high pressure across the Southeast US with a trough extending along a PHL-ROA- AVL line. The challenge for today remains whether or not dewpoints drop a few degrees during the afternoon. 850mb temperatures remain in the 20-22C range today (+2 st dev). Given strong solar insolation this should easily support highs in the mid/upper 90s across the area with the exception of upper 80s/low 90s at the immediate coast. Resultant heat index values will be very sensitive to dewpoints given temperatures well into the 90s. Dewpoints are expected to drop to around 70 over the nw Piedmont counties in vicinity of the surface trough, and over the Lower MD Ern Shore in closer proximity to a retreating weak front. Elsewhere, dewpoints should remain in the low/mid 70s resulting in heat indices of 105 to 109. The spatial coverage of the heat advisory remains representative of the latest data. Forecast soundings show that the airmass remains capped again today limiting the potential for convection. High-res data suggests at the potential for an isolated tstm along the wrn shore of the Chesapeake Bay, but confidence and possible coverage is not enough to raise PoPs above 14%. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Warm and humid tonight with lows in the mid to upr 70s. Hottest day of this stretch appears to be on Mon with highs in the mid-upr 90s again, except upr 80s-lwr 90s at the beaches. Not out of the qstn to see an AWOS record 100. Dew pt temps progged to be in the low- mid 70s fa wide. This would agrue for most if not the entire fa in a heat advsry. Only chc for isltd tstms is over the nwrn zones, all depending on how far east any tstm off the mts can move. The upper ridge begins to slowly break down Mon night into Tues as a frontal boundary slowly approaches from the west. Remaining warm and humid Mon night with evening convection limited to the northern most zones. Lows in the low-mid 70s. Continued hot Tuesday with highs in the mid 90s. Dew pts remain in the low-mid 70s resulting in heat index values aoa 105 most areas (heat advsry range). There is a 20-40% chc of afternoon tstms west of the Ches Bay after 18Z. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Stacked high pressure over the Southeast Coast allows zonal/westerly flow aloft to settle across the region Tuesday night through the week. A series of wx disturbances will pass across the region and keep a chance for thunderstorms in the forecast each aftn/evening. Pwats around 2.00-2.25 inches and dewpoints in the low-mid 70s will result in muggy conditions with ample moisture present across the area...making strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall the anticipated impacts from thunderstorms. Combine the humidity with temperatures remaining in the low 90s, and heat indices will continue to run around 100-104 degrees with a few pockets in far SE VA/NE NC reaching 105-106 degrees for an hour or two each aftn. Lows generally in the low-mid 70s inland and mid-upper 70s beaches each night. && .AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High pressure off the SE U.S. coast continues to be the dominat weather feature through at least Monday. VFR conditions and light winds continue through the 18z TAF period, and beyond, over all terminals. Expect winds to avg out of the s/sw this aftn at 5-8 kt, except on the DELMARVA, where a weak frontal boundary has shifted winds to the E/ESE. OUTLOOK...Another mainly dry day is expected Monday. A cold front drops into the area Tuesday/Wednesday bringing isolated-scattered showers/tstms both days...primarily during the afternoon/evening hours. Brief reductions in VSBYS and CIGS to MVFR/IFR levels are possible with the storms.
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&& .MARINE... Benign marine conditions expected this week with no headlines necessary. Expect a fairly stagnant wx pattern today into Mon with hi pressure centered off the se coast and weak trofs of lo pressure over the Mid Atlc. Winds will avg 10-15 kt out of the s/sw thru this period with 1-2 ft waves over the Bay and 2-3 ft seas over Cstl Wtrs. There may be a surge in winds to 15 kt Bay/Sound and 15-20 kt coastal waters Monday night ahead of the next cold front. This front drops into the area late Tue/Tue night, and remains in the vicinity thru the end of the week. && .CLIMATE... While its certainly going to be hot today thru Mon, climatologically this is the hottest time of the year with several heat waves having occurred in the past that have been far more intense than what we will experience. Record highs are unlikely to be set Sun/Mon, and in most cases, don`t expect that they will even challenged within 5 deg F. * RECORD HIGHS: Records Sun (7/24) Mon (7/25) * RIC: 105 (2010) 105 (2010) * ORF: 105 (2010) 105 (2010) * SBY: 101 (2010) 100 (2010) * ECG: 97 (2012) 99 (1949) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012>017- 030>032. VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ065>068- 077>090-092-093-095>098-513>516-518-520-523>525. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...AJZ/MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...MAS/WRS MARINE...MAS CLIMATE...

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