Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 230523 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 123 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE PIEDMONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 01Z...PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF CWA. WIDELY SCTD SHWRS PERSIST JUST WEST OF CWA...AND MAY MOVE INTO PTNS OF THE PIEDMONT LATER THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THINK RISK FOR SHWRS/TSTMS HAS DECREASED CWA-WIDE...AND HAVE THUS LOWERED POPS EVERYWHERE. WAS TEMPTED TO KEEP NE HALF OF CWA DRY OVERNIGHT...BUT 18Z NAM WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHWRS PERSISTS. SO HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC NE HALF...WITH NO HIGHER THAN 40 PCT POPS EXTREME SW. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD INHIBIT FOG FORMATION ACROSS THE DELMARVA...WHERE SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...TREND HAS BEEN FOR DEW PTS TO FALL OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THE LWR MD EASTERN SHORE...WHICH ALSO ARGUES FOR LESS FOG POTENTIAL. MIN TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S/ARND 70 LOOK GOOD. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... CHC POPS ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR SATURDAY AS THE REMNANT BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE LOCAL AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WILL BE CONFINED AWAY FROM THE COASTS DUE TO ENE FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGH SURGES SSW OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE PIEDMONT BY MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A DRYING TREND ALONG WITH A NE WIND THAT SHOULD BE RATHER BREEZY ALONG THE COAST. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY (AROUND -1 ST DEV). SATURDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 80-85 (UPPER 70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST)...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S SUNDAY MORNING...WITH LOW/MID 60S EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY WELL OFF THE COAST BY ABOUT 500-600 MILES. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE THE RIDGE AXES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ALOFT BEGIN TO SHIFT JUST EAST OF THE FA...AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY THU. THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS DUE TO WELL-ESTABLISHED SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE FAR SE VA/NE NC COAST ON WED DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO THE EAST. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FROM MON NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT (LOWS IN THE 60S...UPPER 50S FAR WRN COUNTIES/HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S...MID-UPPER 70S BEACHES) AND THEN REBOUND TWD SEASONAL NORMALS THU/THU NIGHT (HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S...UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S BEACHES/LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S...AROUND 70 BEACHES). && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FA WITH HIGH PRS BUILDING SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND. LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWING NEXT BAND OF SHWRS MOVG SE ALONG I64 CORRIDOR WITH LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS INDCTG THESE MAKING IT INTO CNTRL VA NEXT SVRL HRS. THUS INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP IN RIC ERLY THIS MORNING. NEXT IMPULSE PROGGED TO TRACK SE AFTER 12Z AFFECTING RIC / SBY AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. GOOD CONFIDENCE BTWN THE MODELS OF THIS OCCURRING SO INCLUDED A FEW HRS OF (MVFR) RAIN AT THOSE SITES. CHALLENGING PART OF FCST WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT CIGS DROP BELOW 1K FT THRU 12Z DUE TO E-NE FLOW OFF THE OCEAN. FOG NOT THAT MUCH OF A CHALLENGE AS CIGS ARE. CIGS BARELY RISE INTO VFR RANGE AS TSCTNS SHOW PLNTY OF MOISTUTE ARND THE AREA FOR A BKN SC DECK (3-4K FT) THRU MUCH OF THE FCST PRD WITH MVFR CIGS RETURNING AFTER 00Z. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PSBL DUE TO STRATUS/FOG SUN MORNING. OTW...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEGINNING SUNDAY.
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&& .MARINE... SCA HEADLINES ISSUED FOR COASTAL WATERS AND SRN CHES BAY SAT AFTN THROUGH SUN. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SWD ACROSS THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. MEANWHILE...A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT. NLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WILL BE COMMON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN THEY WILL TURN TO THE N-NE BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN OVER THE WATERS. A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN PROLONGED SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND SRN CHES BAY...MAINLY DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES (4-5FT/3-4FT RESPECTIVELY). WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20KT OCEAN AND 10-15KT BAY/RIVERS/SOUND. GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KT AT TIMES OVER COASTAL WATERS BUT MAIN FOCUS OF SCA WILL BE ON SEAS OF 5 FT. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FETCH...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SEAS TO REACH 6 FT NEAR BUOY 44009 SAT EVENING DURING A WEAK PUSH OF CAA. CURRITUCK SOUND AND THE MOUTH OF THE JAMES RIVER MAY BE EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS (15-20KT) ON SUN FROM DAYBREAK UNTIL SUNSET BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR THESE AREAS FOR NOW. ALTHOUGH CURRENT HEADLINES END AT 8PM SUN NIGHT...THERE IS A VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT SCA FLAGS WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH MON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON/TUE BUT A TROPICAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS ABOUT 500-600 MILES E-SE OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME. SWELL FROM THIS SYSTEM...IN ADDITION TO CONTINUED ONSHORE WINDS...COULD KEEP SEAS ELEVATED THROUGH MON BEFORE SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632-634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ656- 658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/LSA NEAR TERM...AJZ/WRS SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...MPR MARINE...BMD/LSA

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