Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 261814 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 114 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNING...WHILE A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MAIN CHANGE TO TODAYS FORECAST WAS TO RAISE MAX TEMPS EVERYWHERE...AND POPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX OVER NORTH-CENTRAL NC. THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF NE NC. OTWS...NO CHANGES TO WINTER HEADLINES ATTM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... EARLY THIS MORNG...AREA OF RAIN WAS MOVNG INTO WRN AND NRN COUNTIES IN ADVANCE OF SFC LO OVR SW VA AND UPR TROF PUSHING ACRS THE MTNS. THE LO WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNG...WHILE A NEW LO PRES SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NC CST BY EARLY THIS AFTN. THAT LO WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLC CST INTO THIS EVENG. COMBINATION OF THE SFC LO RE-DEVELOPMENT AND UPR TROF SWINGING ACRS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CHCS FOR RAIN TODAY INTO THIS EVENG. HIGHEST POPS (60-80%) WILL BE OVR THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE BEST LIFT WILL BE...WITH 30-40% POPS OVR THE SRN HALF. TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT INTO EARLY AFTN DESPITE CLOUD COVER...POSSIBLE PCPN AS WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FM THE E. HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 40S NW TO THE MID 50S OVR NE NC. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WILL FAVOR A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF FOR THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN EVENT FOR OUR AREA BEGINS TNGT INTO TUE MORNG...AS COLDER AIR PLUNGES S IN RESPONSE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LO OFF THE MID ATLC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND CST. STILL MAINLY RAIN ACRS THE SRN 2/3 OF THE CWA IN THE EVENING...THEN TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW BETWEEN 00Z-09Z FM NW TO SE. DURING THIS TIME...BEST LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESIDE OFF THE CST OR NE OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER...WILL BE RELYING ON DEFORMATION ZONE AND POSSIBLE BANDING DEVELOPMENT FM THE DELMARVA TO LONG ISLAND TO "WRAP AROUND" AND DROP S OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHR...AND PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN VA FM THIS EVENG THRU TUE MORNG. THUS...BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING AND WPC FCSTS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WX ADVISORIES FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SW COUNTIES OF SCNTRL VA AND ALL OF NE NC COUNTIES. GENERALLY...ADVSYS WILL RUN FM 8PM-1AM THIS EVENG/TNGT TO 8AM-NOON TUE. ANY CHANGE IN THE POSITION OF THE BANDING CAN HAVE DRASTIC EFFECTS ON SNOW AMOUNTS...SO UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS RATHER HIGH. FOR NOW...HAVE FORECAST 2-4" OF SNOW ON THE LWR MD ERN SHR...WITH 1-3" ACRS NRN NECK/VA ERN SHR...1-2" ACRS THE ERN VA PIEDMONT/CNTRL VA INCLUDING RIC METRO AND TRI-CITIES...THEN TAPERED TO 1" OR LESS OVR SCNTRL VA AND SE VA INCLUDING HAMPTON RDS AND THE TIDEWATER AREA. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AND END LATE TUE MORNG/AFTN...BUT IF 00Z ECMWF IS CORRECT...THIS WOULD BE SLOWER AND ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED...ESPLY OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHR. LOWS TNGT IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S...HIGHS ON TUE RANGING FM THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S. CLEARING/COLD TUE NGT/WED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND HIGHS ON WED RANGING FM THE LWR/MID 40S SW TO THE LWR/MID 30S NE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY WX MOST DAYS. FOR WED NIGHT...SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND SE STATES AS THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM APPROACHES FM THE W. WITH A MSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST SPOTS. LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BRING PRECIP (PLAIN RAIN) INTO THE AREA STARTING LATE THU. FAVORED THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH A 30% CHANCE OF PRECIP (RA/SN NORTH AND RA SOUTH) THU NIGHT...WITH LO TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 30S. CONDS THEN DRY OUT INTO FRI AND SAT AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT A PRTLY CLOUDY SKY BOTH DAYS WITH NW WINDS AND HI TEMPS FALLING FM THE 40S ON FRI TO THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S ON SAT. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 17Z...A LULL IN THE PCPN PATTERN AND LARGE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE TEMPORARY. AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF THE NC/VA COAST ...RAIN IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING AND THEN CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AT THE TAF SITES EXCEPT AT SBY WHERE A 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY MORNING. IFR STRATUS MOVED INTO SBY FROM THE NORTH AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN. IFR STRATUS JUST NW OF RIC SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS ALTHOUGH INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR DUE TO A PERSISTENT SCT LAYER THERE. ELSEWHERE...SOLID VFR CONDS SHOULD HANG ON MOST OF THE AFTN. AS PCPN DEVELOPS TOWARD EVENING...CONDS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR THIS EVENING...EXCEPT KEPT ECG NO LOWER THAN MVFR. PCPN WINDS DOWN AND CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL WHICH WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TOWARD THE COAST. WINDS TREND TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR PCPN...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. && .MARINE... AS OF 11AM...HEADLINES NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THIS MORNING. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING THIS MORNING OFF THE ERN NC COAST. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS RAMP UP THRU THE AFTERNOON...FIRST ACROSS THE NRN BAY AND COASTAL ZONES...THEN SWD TO ALL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS IN THE NRN COASTAL ZONES ALREADY UP TO 6 FT THANKS TO NE WINDS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THRU THE DAY. PLEASE REFER TO PREV DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFO. PREV DISCUSSION... GALE WATCH HEADLINE HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVY THROUGH WED, WITH GALE WARNING REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. E-SE FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL BACK TO THE E-NE EARLY THIS MORNING AND EVENTUALITY TO THE NW LATER TODAY. SFC LOW WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA CST LATE TODAY, AND WILL INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS NE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR GALES CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN ZONES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING SFC LOW. SCA`S OVER REMAINDER OF THE WATERS AS FLOW BECOMES NW AND INCREASES TO 20-25KT. RAPID RAMP UP OF WINDS WILL QUICKLY BUILD SEAS TO 6-9 FT SOUTH AND 8-10 FT NORTH, W/ AT LEAST 12 FT OUT 20NM OVR NRN CSTL WATERS. WAVES IN THE CHES BAY UP TO 5-6 FT LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING. NW FLOW AND LOW END SCA CONDS LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN FOR WED NIGHT/THU. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO 1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL REACH HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT TONIGHT. FOR OCEAN CITY...MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH NEW GUIDANCE INDICATING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR MODERATE. HV GONE AHEAD WITH COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR WORCESTER COUNTY INVOF OCEAN CITY FOR TNGT. THIS WILL GIVE THE DAY CREW ONE MORE OPPORTUNITY TO PERUSE LATEST GUIDANCE AND EITHER GO WITH ADVY OR UPGRADE TO WARNING LATER TODAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP OFF TUE NGT/WED AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ021>025. COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MDZ024-025. NC...NONE. VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ080-081-087>090-092-093. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ048-049-061-062-068-069. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ091-094>098. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>634- 654-656-658. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>638. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...MAS/TMG SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...LSA MARINE...MAM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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