Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 022234 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 634 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK COOL FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SETTLES NEAR THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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NO ECHOES SEEN ON RADAR ERLY THIS EVE AS RGN REMAINS CAPPED WITH ALL CONVECTION N / W & S OF FA. THUS...ADJUSTED GRIDS A BIT TO BETTER REFLECT THE CRNT CNDTNS NEXT FEW HRS. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDCT SCT CONVECTION PSBL LATER THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT AS VERY WARM / MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAKENING FRONT. LOWS 70-75.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... FRONT WASHES OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WED, AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL AND DOWNSLOPE/WLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. MEANWHILE, SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION ON WED AS WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE SERN PORTION OF THE LOCAL AREA. GIVEN CONTINUED WARM/MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS WED/THU...CENTERED MAINLY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS AND THETA-E RIDGE OVER THE SRN LOCAL AREA. WILL SEE A LOWER RAIN CHANCE ON FRIDAY WITH NO DISCERNIBLE CONVECTIVE TRIGGER. HOWEVER, WILL STICK WITH A SLIGHT POP GIVEN PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY. HIGHS REMAIN NEARLY +1 STD DEV THRU THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, GENERALLY AROUND 90 DEG INLAND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO WETTER CONDITIONS AND LWR TEMPS AS AN UPR-LEVEL TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC. FOR FRI NGT/SAT MORNG...WITH THE FRONT STILL W OF THE AREA EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND LGT S/SW FLOW. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THRU THE AFTN AND EVENING HRS SAT AS THE FRONT NEAR THE AREA. POPS RANGE FM 50% NW TO 20% FAR SE. LO TEMPS FRI NGT IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S WITH HI TEMPS SAT IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S. FOR SUN...INCREASED POPS TO 50-60% AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO SRN VA/NC. A (LWR) CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE FRONT NEAR THE CAROLINA CST AND WAVES OF LO PRES PASSING ALONG THE FRONT. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR 70S TO MID 80S SUN AND MON WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CONDS PREVAILING W/ FEW-SCT CU (BASES MAINLY 5-7KFT) ACRS FA...ALONG W/ SSW WINDS AOB 10 KT. NO CONVECTION AS OF EARLY THIS AFTN...HWVR...FM ABT 00-06Z/03 AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION...COVERAGE XPCD TO BE SCT SO STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO INCLUDE SHRA OR TSRA IN TAFS AT THIS POINT. MAINLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS WED-FRI AS SFC FRONT WASHES OUT ACRS NC...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED LATE AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR TSTM STILL POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHERN VA/NE NC. THERE MAY BE A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS BY SAT AS NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND STALLS. && .MARINE... SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HI PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH A LEE TROF OVR THE MID ATLANTIC...LEADING TO SLY WINDS AVGG 10-15 KT OVR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. EXPECT 1-2 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. A WEAKENING FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA LATE TNGT INTO WED MORNG...VEERING WINDS FM SW TO N. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL AND A WEAK PRES GRADIENT. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT THRU FRI AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE. WINDS SHIFT FROM N MIDDAY WED TO THE E/SE WED NGT. WINDS GENLY SHOULD BE ESE TO S THU INTO FRI AT 10-15 KT OR LESS...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO THE SSW FRI NGT/SAT. NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION OVR THE WEEKEND. && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY 9/2: RIC: 100/1980 (NEW RECORD ESTABLISHED: 101 F AS OF 142 PM EDT) ORF: 97/1993 (NEW RECORD ESTABLISHED: 98 F AS OF 346 PM EDT) SBY: 97/1980 (TIED RECORD AS OF 239 PM EDT) ECG: 96/1943 TODAY MARKS THE FIRST TIME RIC HAS HIT 100 SINCE JULY 8. LAST TIME RIC HIT AT LEAST 101 WAS WHEN THEY HIT 102 ON 7/8/2012. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...ALB/LKB MARINE...MAS CLIMATE...AKQ

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