Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 280724 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA 224 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains offshore tonight. A warm front lifts through the region Tuesday into Tuesday night, with broad southwest flow allowing temperatures to warm well above normal Tuesday and Wednesday. A strong cold front will approach from the west Wednesday and cross the region Wednesday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Mid evening MSAS has the sfc high well off the coast, a sfc trof across the mts west into the KY/TN valley along with a quasi-stationary front along the Carolina coast. Models show mid level moisture streaming NE across the area with adntl moisture developing near the coast along the frontal boundary. High res data all over the place wrt pcpn chcs overnight given the dry air at the sfc. For this update, went with more with what the crnt trends are showing. Expect mostly cloudy skies overnight. Given the mid/high level cloud deck, added sprinkles to the NWrn half of the fa over the next several hours based on the current radar trends and a comp of the high res data. Shifted low pop chcs toward the coast after 06z due to waa along the coastal boundary as it is progged to lift north later tonite. All this for only trace amounts of rainfall to at most a few hundredths of an inch across the northern Outer Banks by 12Z. Milder than last nite. Lows in the lwr 40s NW to lwr 50s SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Above normal temps and frequent chances of rain during the short term period. Tough to time the pcpn Tue/Tue night as there will be transient shortwaves aloft as well as WAA. PoPs are generally 20-30% daytime Tue, with a higher PoP (50-60%) Tue eveng over northern areas as a warm front lifts north through the area. Temps about 15-20 degrees above normal...highs in the low-mid 70s; upr 60s for the Lwr Eastern Shore. Low temps Tue night in the upr 50s to lwr 60s. Attention then turns Wed to a cold front approaching from the west. Think much of the daytime period will be dry except 20-40% PoPs again for northern/western areas. With the fropa holding off until Wed night, temps will be even warmer than those of Tue...highs in the lwr 80s many areas. Cold front Wed night will be as strong as the one last Sat, with SPC including the FA in a slight risk of severe wx. One issue however will be the timing of the front, with the best chance of tstms (Wed eveng) being after dark. That may diminish the severe potential however not remove the possibility entirety as deep layer shear and forcing is quite strong. PoPs up to 70% attm. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The long term period begins Thursday morning with overnight precipitation off the coast by sunrise. An intensifying surface low over the Northeast States will move quickly to the east into Atlantic Canada. High pressure over the Plains States Thursday builds into the Mid Atlantic region through Saturday. A short wave trough in the northern stream on Friday will bring an increase in clouds and possibly a few showers to northern part of the area...especially the northern neck and Lower Eastern Shore. A secondary cold front moves through Friday morning. Dry weather will prevail for the weekend. The aforementioned high pressure system will move off the coast Sunday. The next frontal system approaches early next week with increasing clouds and a slight chance for showers Monday. High temperatures are forecast to be mostly in the 50s Thursday through Saturday with some 40s northeast portions Friday and Saturday. Temperatures warm into the 60s Sunday and mid 60s to lower 70s Monday. Lows are expected to be in the 30s Friday through Sunday mornings except 20s inland areas Saturday morning. Low temperatures Monday morning will range through the 40s. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure will move farther out to sea during today. A warm front and its associated energy/moisture will lift into and acrs the region later today thru tonight. This will result in sctd showers at RIC/SBY especially, and possibly PHF/ORF. IFR cigs will be possible at all TAF sites late tonight into Wed morning, due to the S winds and pcpn. Outlook...A strong cold front will approach the region from the west on Wed, then cross the region and move off the coast Wed evening/night. This cold front will bring showers/tstms likely Wed evening/night. High pressure returns Thu and Thu night, followed by a secondary, mainly dry cold front Fri. && .MARINE... Marine wx remains quiet into tonight. Sfc hi pres drifts farther E and away from the coast through this afternoon as a warm front lifts across the local waters. Starting out w/ light SE winds gradually becoming S through the day while increasing just a bit. Increasing SSW winds tonight into Wed...though w/ strong WAA over the colder waters...the stability will limit mixing/higher wind speeds except near the shoreline (through Wed afternoon). A strong cold front approaches from the W Wed afternoon...crossing the waters Wed night. CAA in the wake of the cold front will allow for higher wind speeds to transfer down. A short period of near gales possible w/ the initial cold air push Wed night...wind probs attm only show potential for gales (both sustained/gusts) mainly less than 10%...except for the far northern ocean waters where probs approach 25-30% (for gusts). Moderate- strong SCA lingering until late morning/early afternoon Thu before winds wane. Another SCA will likely be needed Friday and Friday night behind a secondary cold front. && .CLIMATE... Record high temperatures for March 1st: RIC...80 in 1976 ORF...81 in 1918 SBY...80 in 1976 ECG...82 in 2012 Feb 2017 is shaping up to rank among the warmest on record given continued warmth over the next week. Shown below are the top 3 warmest February`s on record. Expecting RIC and ORF to be the 2nd warmest and for ECG to be at least within the top 3 warmest. SBY looks on track to be the 4th or 5th warmest. Warmest February`s on record (average temps): * RIC: (most likely finish for 2017: 2nd warmest) 1) 49.9 (1890) 2) 48.5 (1976) 3) 48.1 (1884) * ORF: (most likely finish for 2017: 2nd warmest) 1) 52.4 (1890) 2) 50.5 (1909) 3) 50.1 (1990) * SBY: (most likely finish for 2017: 4th warmest) 1) 46.1 (1976) 2) 45.8 (1984) 3) 45.7 (1925) * ECG: (most likely finish for 2017: 3rd warmest) 1) 52.1 (1990) 2) 51.8 (1939) 3) 50.3 (1976) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to 1 PM EST Thursday for ANZ630>638-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 1 PM EST Thursday for ANZ650-652-654. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS/MPR SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...LSA AVIATION...TMG MARINE...ALB/LSA CLIMATE...AKQ

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