Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 270849 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 349 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...CENTERING OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SECONDARY WEAK COLD FRONT AND H85 TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING. COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE OH VALLEY...WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AOB 4 DEGS AND CALM WINDS HAS RESULTED IN PATCHY FREEZING FOG THIS MORNING. LOWEST VISIBILITIES LOCATED ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN VA THIS MORNING...AS MID-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND DECREASE ACROSS THE EAST. BLACK ICE IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON AREA ROADWAYS AND ESPECIALLY OVERPASSES WITH TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 20S. SPS IS IN EFFECT THRU EARLY MORNING...MENTIONING BLACK ICE AND FREEZING FOG. FOR TODAY...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF NRN STREAM SHORTWAVES DE- AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...CROSSING THE NE STATES THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE AS LOW LEVEL NLY FLOW INCREASES. H85 TROUGH DROPS INTO THE REGION AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN SWLY FLOW ALOFT LIFT OVER THE REGION. BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION WITH THE SHEARING WAVE. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE HIGH RH VALUES AOB H85 WITH WEAK LIFT/OMEGA...BUT REMAINING BELOW THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE. HI-RES GUIDANCE ALSO PICKING UP ON LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE N AND NE ZONES...IN TANDEM WITH MOISTURE AND LIFT. CAA WILL ALSO RESULT IN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH THAT SAID...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE LOWER PENINSULA. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS MOISTURE REMAINS SHALLOW. SMALL DIURNAL EXPECTED TODAY WITH SKY AVG PARTLY CLOUDY-MOSTLY CLOUDY AND CAA. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... HI PRES WILL SLOWLY BLD IN FM THE NW FRI THRU SAT...THEN MOVES OFF THE CST ON SUN. PARTLY SUNNY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COLD ON FRI WITH HIGHS RANGING THRU THE 30S. A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE ACRS EXTRM NNE COUNTIES IN THE MORNG. PARTLY CLOUDY AND VERY COLD FRI NGT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID TEENS TO LWR 20S. PARTLY SUNNY AND COLD ON SAT WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S. DRY SAT NGT UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. LOWS RANGING FM THE MID TEENS TO LWR 20S. HI PRES WILL SLIDE OFF THE CST ON SUN AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FM THE W. WINDS WILL BECOME SE OR S SUN AFTN AND EVENG IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM HELPING BOOST TEMPS INTO THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S. KEPT SUN DRY FOR NOW WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING N OF THE REGION...AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. AT THIS TIME 40-50% POPS ARE FORECAST NE...WITH 30-40% ELSEWHERE. EXPECTING MAINLY -RA AS LOW-LEVEL SW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BY THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING N OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS MONDAY RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S NE...TO THE LOW/MID 50S SW. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S N...TO LOW/MID 30S S. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE REGION AND LINGER THROUGH MIDWEEK. AT THIS TIME UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGING AND BE DICTATED BY THE POSITION OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES S OF THE BOUNDARY ARE LIKELY TO BE MILD AND MORE SPRING LIKE...WHILE COOL (BUT MORE SEASONAL/WITHIN -1 ST DEV) CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED N OF THE BOUNDARY. REGARDLESS...PCPN TYPE APPEARS TO BE ALL -RA AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... COMBO OF PARTIALLY CLRG SKIES...NEARLY SATURATED AIRMASS ALONG WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK HAS ALLOWED FOR AREAS OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG TO FORM PAST SVRL HRS. AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS APPRCHG FROM THE WEST. AS SC/ST OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS BNDRY...THE IFR FZFG IS EXPECTED TO DSPTD OR SLOWLY LIFT. TSCTNS SHOW ENUF MOISTURE BTWN 1-3K FT FOR A BKN-OVC LYR OF SC TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PRD. MSTR EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO THE VFR RANGE 3-5K FT AFTR 00Z. A FEW SNOW FLRYS ARE PSBL WITH THE ACTUAL FROPA...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENUF TO INCLUDE AT ANY TAF SITE ATTM. WIND GNRLY NORTH AOB 10 KTS. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH N-NE WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO APPEND `AMD NOT SKED` AT KECG DUE TO COMMS ISSUE AT THE ASOS. && .MARINE... ANTHR ARCTIC FRONTAL BNDRY PROGGED TO CROSS THE WATERS LATER TODAY. MODELS SHOW A CAA SURGE BEHIND THE FROPA...BUT NOT ALL THAT STRNG. GIVEN THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE BNDRY...WENT AHEAD AND HOISTED A MINIMAL SCA (15-20 KTS) FOR THE CHES BAY TONIGHT. SURGE A FEW HRS LATER OVR THE CURRITUCK SND (05Z-15Z). ALSO...WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE SCA OVR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY FOR SEAS ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL INCRS TO JUST UNDER SCA LEVELS. HIGH PRS MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT THEN OFFSHOREBY SUNDAY RESULTING IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS. RETURN S-SW FLOW DVLPS SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT APPRCHG FROM THE NW. THIS BNDRY PROGGED TO CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY WITH WINDS BCMG NW TO N BEHIND IT. && .CLIMATE... RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE VERY LIKELY. AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 25TH: RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.1 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979. NORFOLK: 32.9 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978. SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 25TH: * RICHMOND: 7.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THE 10TH SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1952 WITH 11.0". - UNOFFICIAL SNOW TOTAL FEB 25-26TH (CURRENT STORM) 5.0". - UNOFFICIAL MONTHLY (THROUGH THE 26TH) TOTAL 12.2" MAKING CURRENT MONTH #9 ALL-TIME. * NORFOLK: 6.0" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THE 10TH SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1937 WITH 9.8". - UNOFFICIAL SNOW TOTAL FEB 25-26TH (CURRENT STORM) 5.6". - UNOFFICIAL MONTHLY (THROUGH THE 26TH) TOTAL 11.5" MAKING CURRENT MONTH #7 ALL-TIME. ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING): 2/28 3/1 ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH _______ _______ __________________________________________ RIC -1/1934 11/1937 10 MARCH 4 2009 ORF 17/1934 18/1980 14 MARCH 14 1888 SBY 13/1950 13/1980 1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911 ECG 14/1934 16/1937 16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943 RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (FRIDAY AND SATURDAY): 2/27 2/28 _______ _______ RIC 23/1934 28/1934 ORF 24/1934 30/1934 SBY 24/1934 29/1934 ECG 33/1963 33/1934 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ633. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652- 654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SAM/TMG NEAR TERM...SAM SHORT TERM...TMG LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...MPR MARINE...MPR CLIMATE...

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