Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 302011
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
411 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1020 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS. LATEST
IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING NNE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND EASTERN TN VLY
TOWARD OUR REGION...AS WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM
THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWING SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS COASTAL SC...AND EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING. DESPITE
ONLY WEAK OVERRUNNING/MINIMAL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DRY AIR IN LOW
LEVELS, MID/UPPER DYNAMICS COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POP TIMING TO BE
MAINLY AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH MAJORITY OF 30% POP
ORIENTED ACROSS THE NE NC COASTAL PLAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP ENOUGH THAT AS THIS MOISTURE PUSHES
ACROSS, A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS HAMPTON
ROADS AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA LATE TONIGHT. HV THEREFORE GONE WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OVER THESE AREAS. OVERALL, PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST AND
MILDER OVERNIGHT, WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY 65 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...
LINGERING 20-30% RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR ALL BUT MD EASTERN
SHORE AREAS FROM MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTN. ACCOUNTED FOR A
LITTLE BIT OF A LULL IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS
FIRST SLUG OF LIGHT OVERRUNNING PCPN PUSHES OFFSHORE/ HOWEVER,
WITH SW FLOW BRINGING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PW VALUES MON/MON
NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AS LOW LEVEL
LIFT/ADDITIONAL UPPER SUPPORT ARRIVES COINCIDENT WITH DIURNAL
HEATING. MOVED POPS A BIT FARTHER INTO THE NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH
TIMING SLOWING SLIGHTLY. A BIT MORE MUGGY MON W/ HIGHS MON MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F. BY ALL INDICATIONS, SFC FRONT
LOCATES FROM NEAR HATTERAS TO JUST OFF THE FL/GA COAST...AND THUS
EXPECT ANY ISSUES WITH HEAVY RAINFALL TO REMAIN CONFINED TO OUR
SOUTH. HOWEVER, WITH AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA, BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SE COASTAL PLAIN.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING TO BEGIN THE PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING. THE
SOUTHEAST (SUBTROPICAL) RIDGE BUILDS BACK WEST ACROSS THE SE
COAST ON TUESDAY, AS WEAK TROUGHING TAKING SHAPE FROM THE WESTERN
GULF COAST TO THE OZARKS. MODELS EVENTUALLY CLOSE THIS WAVE OFF
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THIS IN TANDEM WITH THE ANTECEDENT
MOIST AIRMASS AND UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT FORCING
FOR ANY LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS IS WEAK AND MAINLY TO OUR
SOUTH...AND THUS POPS REMAIN LOW BOTH DAYS. WILL CARRY A 20% POP
ACRS THE FAR S/SE FOR ISOLATED AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS
EACH DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...AND
AROUND 90/LOWER 90S FOR MOST ON WEDNESDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS
EACH DAY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A
WEAK TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS
ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER
RETREATS FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO THE
AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH PASS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC ON THURS BUT THIS LOOKS TO
HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN.

WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH MID-UPPER 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE COAST IS RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. BKN- OVC HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 15KFT TO
20KFT CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN CONFINED TO UPSTATE SC AND SOUTHERN NC
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH INTO NORTHEAST NC
AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST VA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
MONDAY. EXPECT BKN- OVC CLOUDS TO LOWER TO AROUND 8-12KFT AGL LATE
THIS EVENING AT ECG...ORF AND PHF AND THEN DOWN TO 3-5KFT AT ECG
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE PRIMARILY AT ECG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS FAR N AS ORF OVERNIGHT THOUGH
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT AND POSE NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY. WINDS REMAIN SE TO SW AND LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE
REGION MONDAY. A SLGT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS IS INDICATED MAINLY
OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY. MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDS
WILL PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK OVER THE AREA. SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP AT SOME
LOCATIONS NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. THE RESULT IS A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW (SE TO E) AOB 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT IN THE NORTH AND 2-3 FT
SOUTH. WAVES ACROSS THE BAY 1-2 FT. A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE
GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL PUSH SPEEDS TO 10-15 KT. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THRU MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVER THE WATER. WIND DIRECTIONS GENERALLY SW TO W THRU
WEDS...AOB 15 KT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO DROP INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS AVERAGE 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ/DAP
AVIATION...SAM/JAO
MARINE...SAM/DAP


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