Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251124
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
624 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS...FOLLOWED
BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE THEN TRACKS UP
THE EAST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRNT APPROACHING FM THE W IS TAKING ITS TIME MOVING E THRU
VA THIS MORNG. INCREASED POPS AHEAD OF THE FRNT WITH MOISTURE
STREAMING NNE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG LLJ AND SFC DEWPTS
AROUND 60. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE THRU THE ENTIRE DAY
OVR SE AREAS WITH THE FRNT IN THE VICINITY AND THE AREA IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPR-LEVEL JET STREAK. TEMPS WILL NOT
BE NEARLY AS WARM AS YESTERDAY WITH A MSTLY CLOUDY-CLOUDY
SKY...BUT STILL EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL READINGS WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LO TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TRACKS NNE TONIGHT
REACHING A POSITION NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT BY 12Z WED. THE 25/00Z SUITE
OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEMONSTRATE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM. A BAND OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS PROGGED TO LIFT
OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. MID-
LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION RAPIDLY INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
COMBINED WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. POPS INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE
UPR 40S NW...TO MID 50S SE...AND GRADUALLY FALL OVERNIGHT AS IN
SITU WEDGING DEVELOPS DUE TO RAIN AND A LIGHT N WIND. BY 12Z WED
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NW...TO NEAR 50 SE.

MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING
AS MOISTURE REMAINS DEEP AND FORCING REMAINS STRONG. CAA REMAINS
RATHER WEAK. HOWEVER...DYNAMICAL COOLING SHOULD DRIVE TEMPERATURES
DOWN INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S OVER THE NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES THROUGH WED
MORNING...WITH 40S ELSEWHERE. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE/850MB
LOW AND CLIMO THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE ACCUMULATING SN
WOULD BE ACROSS THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME A 1-2IN
ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST OVER LOUISA/FLUVANNA...BORDERED BY LESS
THAN 1IN. MOISTURE SHALLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO PCPN SHOULD
STEADILY LESSEN IN INTENSITY BEFORE ENDING LATE WED
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LOCATIONS THAT CHANGE TO SN COULD
ACTUALLY SWITCH BACK OVER TO -RA AS THE INTENSITY WANES. OVERALL
LIGHT SN ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE NW OF THE RIC METRO AREA.

A BRIEF LULL IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT...BEFORE A SECONDARY CLIPPER-TYPE
SYSTEM DIVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THANKSGIVING
DAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHC OF -SHRA OR -SHSN (OR A MIX THEREOF) TO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST BY AFTERNOON WITH PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED FROM W-E. MORNING
LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 30 NW...TO THE MID 30S SE...FOLLOWED
BY HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z/24 GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
WILL HAVE A DRY FCST FOR THE REGION WITH CHILLY/BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AT THE START...WHICH WILL MODERATE TO ARND OR NEAR NORMAL FOR SUN
AND MON. COOL HI PRES WILL BLD INTO AND OVR THE AREA THU NGT AND
FRI...THEN SETTLES OFF THE MID ATLC AND SE CST FOR SAT THRU MON.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S FRI...IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S
SAT...IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S SUN...AND IN THE 50S MON. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S FRI AND SAT MORNGS...IN
THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S SUN MORNG...AND IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S
MON MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT MUCH SLOWER TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL SITES THIS
MORNING WITH THE BNDRY STILL WEST OF RIC AS OF 12Z. LIGHT RAIN
ASSCTD WITH WEAK IMPULSES CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
DESPITE THE PERIODIC LIGHT RAIN...CIGS CONT VFR WITH NO REAL
IMPACT TO AVIATION.

FRONT CRAWLS EAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS
AFTRN. THIS WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE NORTH. MEANWHILE...MSTR
ASSCTD WITH DVLPNG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SERN COAST WILL MOVE
NORTH AND OVERSPRD THE AREA LATE THIS AFTRN AND EVENING. CIGS /
VSBYS WILL LWR TO MVFR RANGE. WDSPRD RAIN AFTR 00Z WITH RTHR HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CNDTNS IN BOTH RAIN / FOG WITH LCL LIFR CNDTNS
AFTR MIDNIGHT. THESE CNDTNS CONTINUE THROUGH WED ALONG WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS (20-30KTS) ALONG THE COAST AS THE LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST
APPRCH. DATA SUGGESTS PCPN MAY END AS A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX AT RIC
WED EVE. RAIN ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
RATHER BUSY MARINE FCST NEXT 48 TO 72 HRS. FIRST OFF...SEAS STILL
RUNNING AOA 5 FT SO HAVE XTNDD THE CRNT SCA THRU 17Z S OF CAPE
CHARLES LGHT AND THRU 21Z NRN CSTL WTRS.

MODELS CONSISTENT IN DVLPNG LOW PRS OFF THE SERN COAST TDY...THEN
DEEPENING AS IT MOVES NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND MID
ATLNTC COAST WED. DATA SUPPORTIVE OF GALE FORCE GUSTS OVR CSTL WTRS
(UP TO 40 KTS) AND SRN CHES BAY / CURRITUCK SND (35 KTS) WED. WITH
RTHR HIGH CONFIDENCE ATTM...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND HOISTED GALE WRNGS
WITH THIS PACKAGE (THUS A SECOND HEADLINE FOR CSTL WTRS GIVEN CRNT
CNDTNS)...WITH STRNG SCA`S ACROSS THE MIDDLE BAY AND RIVERS. WINDS
N-NE TO START THEN SWITCH TO NW AS SYSTM LIFTS N OF THE AREA WED
NIGHT. THE LONGER TRAJECTORY OVER THE WATERS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EVENT ALLOWS SEAS TO BUILD TO BTWN 6-10 FT (HIGHEST OUT NR 20 NM).

SCA`S WILL LIKELY REPLACE THE GALES WED NIGHT AS LOW QUICKLY MOVES
NE AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. A BRIEF LULL IN WINDS THU MORN BEFORE YET
ANTHR CAA SURGE SEEN THU AFTRN / EVE BEHIND UPR LVL LOW THAT EXITS
OFF THE COAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NO ISSUES WITH TIDAL DEPARTURES ATTM BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH WED
DAYTIME HIGH TIDE CYCLE. GUID SUGGESTS TIDAL DEPARTURES ACROSS SRN
AREAS RISE TO BTWN 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL WHICH WOULD PUT LEVELS
ABOUT 1/2 TO 1 FOOT BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. SEWELLS POINT
MAY APPRCH MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS GIVEN THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS
DOWN THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE BAY PUSHING / PILING UP THE WATER.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ635>637.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ632>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ630.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ631.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-
     658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAS
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MPR





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