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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010755
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
255 AM EST SUN DEC 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY AND
THEN MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
W-E ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. AT THE SURFACE...AN INVERTED
TROUGH OFF THE COAST IS SHARPENING IN RESPONSE TO THE MID-LEVEL
ASCENT INDUCED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. A 1038MB SURFACE HIGH REMAINS
ANCHORED IMMEDIATELY OFF THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA...AND EXTENDS SW
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE VA/NC PIEDMONT. A NARROW BAND
OF QUASI-STATIONARY LOW CLOUDS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF
I-95 AND THIS APPEARS TO BE RESULTING FROM MOISTURE TRAPPED
BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE
PIEDMONT. THIS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE SCATTERING AND MOVING EAST AS THE TROUGH PULLS OFF
THE COAST. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 20S OVER THE
PIEDMONT TO THE MID/UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY...AS THE
PRIMARY HIGH OVER ATLANTIC CANADA SHIFTS EASTWARD. LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES CLIMB AIDED BY LOW-LEVEL WSW FLOW. HIGHS IN
GENERAL SHOULD CLIMB A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THOSE OF TODAY AND RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S NE...TO LOW/MID 50S SW UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HOW THE NEXT SYSTEM EVOLVES STILL HAS SOME QUESTIONS. THE GFS HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING THE LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
MONDAY THEN MOVING NORTHEAST OUT TO SEE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
IT DOES DEVELOP SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS. THEN THE PV MAX MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT HELPING TO GENERATE MORE LIFT. THE NAM ALSO DEVELOPS A LOW
BUT TENDS TO HAVE MORE PRECIPITATION WELL INLAND AND SLOWER THEN
THE GFS. THE NEW SREF RUNS ALL SUPPORT THE 12Z GFS SO WILL LEAN
THAT WAY WITH THE FORECAST. THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON MONDAY NIGHT OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA AND HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY THERE. SINCE STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR WEST THIS PRECIPITATION WILL TRACK KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WEST. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO MOS GUIDE
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S AND
THE SAME ON MONDAY NIGHT. MAXES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S EACH
DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK HAS A SLOW WARM UP WITH A GOOD CHANCE
FOR RAIN WRAPPING THINGS UP TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING NEXT WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND TRAVELS WELL OUT
TO SEA TUESDAY NIGHT PER THE GFS/SREF. A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST LATE IN
THE WEEK BUT ITS PROGRESS EASTWARD WILL BE SLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE FRONT HANGS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY ACCORDING TO BOTH THE EURO AND
GFS. FROM THERE...THE MODEL OF CHOICE WAS THE EURO WITH ITS SLOWER
MOVEMENT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS TO
BE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 50S EXCEPT UPR
40S ON THE MD EASTERN SHORE. S/SW WINDS TAKE OVER BY THURSDAY
MORNING. AFTER LOWS AGAIN IN THE 30S THURSDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES
CLIMB TO THE MID 50S ON THE ERN SHORE TO AROUND 60 ACROSS SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THURSDAY WITH A
CHC FOR SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES (30-40 PERCENT) SPREAD FURTHER EAST FRIDAY
REACHING ALL BUT PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. AFTER LOWS IN
THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S...HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO
CLIMB TO THE UPR 50S ON THE MD EASTERN SHORE TO THE MID AND UPR 60S
NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. MILD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 SATURDAY
MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO REACH HIGHS IN THE LWR 50S NORTH TO LWR 60S
NE NORTH CAROLINA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST OBS REFLECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THIS
MORNING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR/TEMPO IFR AT ECG/ORF.
EXPECT PREDOMINATE VFR CONDS THIS MORNING, WITH CONTINUED PATCHY
MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PHF-ORF-ECG WITH LIGHT W-NW WIND.
ANY LOW SC WILL LIFT, WITH VFR TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...EXPECT INCREASING LOW CLOUDS (MVFR/IFR) AND LGT PCPN
TOWARD THE SE COASTAL TERMINALS ON MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
AS A COASTAL LOW IMPACTS THE AREA. APART FROM TYPICAL EARLY
MORNING STRATUS/FOG, A RETURN TO PREDOMINATE VFR/DRY WX SHOULD
FOLLOW TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. LIGHT NE WINDS
THIS EVENING WILL BACK TO THE NW TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING VARIABLE
SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS BECOME NE 10-15 KT ON MONDAY AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS BACK TO THE NW
BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ON THE OCEAN/
10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. WAVES/SEAS INCREASE TO 2-3FT IN THE BAY / 4-5FT
COASTAL WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS FOR MAINLY SEAS ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD LATE WED/THU...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JEF/LSA
AVIATION...MAM/LSA
MARINE...JDM