Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210052
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
852 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIFTS NORTH ALONG...THEN
OFF...THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST RIDGES SWWD INTO
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS RESULTING IN A VERY NICE
EARLY FALL DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ALONG AS WEST OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. TEMPS ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT JUST OFF THE SE COAST
IS GENERATING CONSIDERABLE CLDS ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN DELMARVA...SE
VA AND NE NC. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO MOVED NWWD FROM THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND INTO OUR NE NC COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO DRIER AIR INLAND. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BE EAST OF DELMARVA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE SIDED CLOSED TO THE 12Z GFS WITH REGARD TO WESTERN
EXTENT OF PRECIP AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS...AS NAM APPEARS TOO
AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING BOTH CLOUDS AND PRECIP NWWD. POP/WEATHER
FORECAST SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE...ALTHOUGH CHC POPS PUSHED
SOMEWHAT WWD INTO DELMARVA/SE VA AND A GOOD PART OF NE NC. LIKELY
POPS FORECAST BY MET GUIDANCE SEEM TOO HIGH...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER
TO...BUT STILL A BIT BELOW...MAV GUIDANCE. ANY PRECIP WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHT ABOVE THIS MORNINGS TEMPS
AWAY FROM THE BAY/OCEAN...WITH MANY AREAS AT OR A FEW DEGREES
BELOW 60. CLOSER TO THE BAY/OCEAN...CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT...AND
EXPECT IT AGAIN TONIGHT IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL WILL BE ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY
AREAS SEEING THE UPPER 80S...AND ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO MAKE INTO
THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD
OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SUNDAY EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT AREA TO 30%...MAINLY
IN DEFERENCE TO NAM12 PRECIP DEPICTION. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...BUT ANY PRECIP BEYOND 04Z EXPECTED TO
BE WIDELY SCATTERED. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE
FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50. A
SUNNY PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS TURN
TO NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR STRATUS TO ALL BUT RIC AND
SOME IFR IS EXPECTED AT SBY AND ECG. THE WEATHER IMPROVES BY LATE
MORNING TO MIDDAY SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLGT TO LOW CHCS FOR
SHOWERS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SLGT CHCS FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
8 PM UPDATE...SEAS AND WAVES AT CAPE CHARLES BUOY AND FIRST
LANDING RESPECTIVELY ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH SIGN OF SUBSIDING.
MODELS ARE INSISTENT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS SOON AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN WAVES DROPPING BELOW SCA IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. THE
SCA EXPIRATION OF 10 PM SEEMED TOO SOON FOR THAT AND ADJUSTED
THAT TO 1 AM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SFC HI PRES STRETCHES DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC
CST TNGT AS LO PRES PASSES OFFSHORE. AS FAR AS HEADLINES...SCA OVR
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WILL CONTINUE THRU 10 PM DUE TO 4 FT WAVES.
HIGH SEAS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVR THE CSTL WTRS DUE TO PROLONGED
ERLY/NERLY FETCH. WILL CONTINUE HEADLINES THERE INTO
TOMORO...ENDING THEM FM N TO S THRU THE DAY AS FLOW BCMS NLY. A
COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS LATE SUN/ERLY MON...WITH CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO STAY SUB-SCA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A WEAK GRADIENT AND
CAA. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF THE AREA MON NGT MAY
BRING WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND
15 KT FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES AND SEAS
AND SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS/LSA





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.