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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 090816
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
416 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING AND EXIT
THE COAST BY MID TO LATE MORNING. DESPITE COOLING CLOUD TOPS ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE TOO LARGE AND CLOUD BASES
ARE TOO HIGH TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SPRINKLES OR VERY
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN NECK AND THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT BY THIS AFTN AND NW
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY FROM WRN CHES BAY TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
EXPECT GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE AREA
WILL RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW HIGHS ON SATURDAY OR IN THE LOW-MID
50S (AROUND 5 DEGREES LOWER ACROSS NE NC OR IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AREAWIDE. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE SE STATES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DIVE ALONG THE NRN GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND INTO
NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SAG TWD THE DELMARVA DURING THIS
TIME...PRIMARILY SPREADING HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
MOSTLY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SW WINDS ON MONDAY WILL BRING A DRYING
AND WARMING TREND TO THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S (LOW-MID 60S NRN NECK AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). CONTINUED SW
WINDS OVERNIGHT MONDAY WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION AND
LOWS SHOULD ONLY DROP INTO THE MID 40S (UPPER 40S IMMEDIATE COAST).
HIGH PRESSURE STILL DOMINATES ON TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WARM FRONT IS ANTICIPATED
TO EXTEND ACROSS NRN VA DURING THIS TIME AND WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL
WARMING. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S MOST AREAS (MID-UPPER 60S NRN
NECK AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT...SPREADING LIGHT RAIN INTO THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S...LOWER 50S NE NC/FAR SE VA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE
STRONG STORM SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
WED. THE GFS TRACKS THE LOW ACROSS THE AREA ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF. EITHER WAY THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS VA.
MODELS AGREE THE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY WED AFTERNOON.
GOING WITH A MODEL BLEND...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR WED
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME WINDY WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SWLY WINDS
DEVELOPING AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS. LOWS WED MORNING WILL BE RATHER
MILD IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH HIGHS WED AFTERNOON IN THE MID
50S TO MID 60S. AFTERNOON HIGHS WED WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE STORM SYSTEM AND WHEN WINDS BECOME NW USHERING IN
COOLER TEMPS. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE RAPIDLY DEPARTING THE
DELMARVA WED EVENING/NIGHT. BEHIND THE SYSTEM STRONG NWLY WINDS
DRIVE A SURGE OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION. 1000-850 MB
THICKNESSES FALL 100 METERS FROM 18Z WED TO 18Z THU. LOWS WED
NIGHT DROP BACK INTO THE LOW 30S WITH HIGHS THU STRUGGLING INTO
THE LOW TO MID 40S. COLD TEMPS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN AND LOWS DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THIS
COLD SNAP SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
REBOUND FRIDAY INTO THE 50S AND EVEN 60S POSSIBLE FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CDFNT TO CROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABT 13Z/09 ACCOMPANIED BY BKN CIGS
4-8KFT. WNDS SHIFT TO N/NW BEHIND THE FNT AND MAY BE GUSTY AT
TIMES (TO ABT 20 KT) THIS MRNG. CONTD VFR CONDS THIS AFTN W/
WIND SPEEDS LWRG.

VFR CONDS SUN NGT THROUGH TUE. ANOTHER CDFNT MOVES INTO THE MDATLC
STATES TUE NGT AS LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH THE MS VALLEY. THE LOW
MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF IFR
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS END BY EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS RMN SLO TO SUBSIDE OVR NC OCN WTRS...HOVERING ARND 5 FT. MAY
NEED TO EXTEND SCA THROUGH EARLY MRNG HRS. OTRW...CDFNT TO CROSS
THE WTRS BY 13Z/09. A PD OF HIGHER/GUSTY WIND SPEEDS AS DIRECTION
SHIFTS TO NNW. WILL KEEP SPEEDS BLO SCA THROUGH THE MRNG/MIDDAY
HRS BEFORE DCRSG THIS AFTN. A PD OF BENIGN WX OVR THE WTRS W/ WNDS
AOB 15 KT THIS AFTN/EVE THROUGH TUE. INCRSD SSW WNDS TUE NGT/WED
AHEAD OF LO PRES APPROACHING FM THE WSW. THAT SYS AND ITS
ASSOCIATED CDFNT REACH THE CST WED NGT...W/ A PTNTL PD OF STRNG LO
LVL CAA AND MDT/STRNG NW BY THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB