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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 131847
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
247 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will remain offshore of New England through
Saturday as a trough of low pressure slowly weakens along the
Carolina coast. A cold front passes through the region Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Combo of weak sfc lo pres E of the NC coast and 1032mb sfc hi
pres E of New England continuing ENE flow of maritime air in
the local area. Lo level CAD wedge firmly in place...maintaining
lo CIGs (ST) through tonight. Watching an area of -RA spreading
W invof ESE VA-coastal NE NC...and that area is expected to move
inland the next few hours. Will have PoPs 50-60% this evening
for that pcpn. For the overnight hours...will be keeping PoPs
30-50% ern portions of the FA (which gradually lowers after
midnight)...while aob 20% farther inland-W of I 95. Won`t rule
out patchy DZ central/wrn areas. Lows tonight from the m-u50s-
around 60F WNW to the m-u60s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Not confident in amount of erosion to the CAD wedge (and
cloudy/damp wx) Saturday (esp into early this afternoon...and
potentially most of the day ern portions) due to very limited
mixing...and weak sfc trough (lingering over E and SE portions
of local area). Have stayed pessimistic with cloud cover Sat w/
best possibility there`s partial clearing (sooner) (well)
inland. PoPs Sat blo 15% W...20-30% toward the coast...w/ highs
mainly 75-80F.

Expecting drying Sat night-Sun as low level flow becomes SSW
ahead of a cold front tracking to the mtns by late in the day
(Sun). With clearing...Sun turns out warmer...with PoPs aob 14%.
Lows Sat night in the l-m60s inland...m-u60s near the coast.
Highs Sun in the l-m80s.

The cold front crosses the mtns Sun night...then continues to
press ESE through the local area Mon (reaching far SE VA-NE NC
by late in the day). Some subtle timing differences in the
models (GFS generally faster). Becoming mostly cloudy and begin
to raise PoPs NW 1/2 after midnight Sun night...while remaining
mainly partly cloudy SE. Mainly cloudy Mon...w/ highest PoPs
Mon (40-60%) NW 1/2 of the FA Mon morning...shifting to the SE
1/2 in the afternoon (w/ slow clearing possible NW). Lows Sun
night in the m50s NW to the l-m60s far SE. Highs Mon in the
m-u60s...except around 70F in NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front is expected to approach the region Sunday night and
Monday bringing a chance of showers and possibly thunderstorms to
the region through much of the day on Monday. There is still a bit
of a timing difference between the GFS and the ECMWF with the GFS
trending slightly faster. However, have started to see the models
come into better agreement compared to previous model runs.
Precipitation may linger across far southeastern portions of the
region into early Tuesday morning.

High pressure builds into the area Tuesday into Wednesday with much
cooler and drier air being ushered in behind the front. Highs on
Tuesday will be much cooler than what we have been seeing with
temperatures only in the mid to upper 60s. By Tuesday night,
temperatures will fall into the 40s for many locations away from the
coast. Drier and cooler weather is expected to last through the
extended period with highs in the 60s and 70s and lows in the 40s
and 50s. Temperatures begin to moderate by the end of the period. It
should be noted that while these values will feel much cooler,
temperatures will be close to normal for mid October.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Onshore flow continues through the TAF period with high
pressure wedging southward from New England. MVFR/IFR ceilings
will persist with little improvement anticipated this evening
and tonight. Areas of light rain/drizzle moving inland from the
coastal waters will enhance IFR coverage for ORF and PHF this
afternoon/evening and may also affect ECG and SBY. Breezy
northeast winds are also expected with gusts in excess of 20
knots possible near the coast.

Outlook: Sub-VFR conditions are expected to linger through early
Saturday before gradually improving by Saturday afternoon. Sub-VFR
conditions will once again be possible Saturday night into early
Sunday morning in the form of low ceilings. High pressure builds
into the region on Sunday allowing for a return to primarily VFR
conditions. A cold front approaches the region late Sunday and into
Monday bringing yet another chance for adverse aviation conditions
to the region.

&&

.MARINE...
The NE winds continue to be rather gusty aoa SCA levels across the
marine area so will be extending/adjusting the headlines based off
of latest obs and model guid. Winds begin to slowly diminish later
today and this evening as the gradient from the high to the north
begins to relax. Have even extended the SCA over the coastal waters
through Sat night as seas will be slow to drop below 5 ft. Given the
current near shore sea heights, will be extending the high surf
through the morning hours for now. Day crew can adjust as necessary
when nearshore seas drop below 8 ft.

Improving conditions Sun with S/SW winds of 10-15 kt. The next cold
front progged across the waters Sun night with a rather impressive
CAA surge noted behind it for Mon. Bumped up wind into strong SCA
range for now.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal departures averaging 1.5 to 2.0 feet above normal this
morning. Quick update to the TWL this morning, mainly to bump up
levels across the lower Maryland eastern shore. Expect mainly
minor flooding this morning, but Bishops Head could just reach
moderate flooding of 3.8 ft. Otw, tweeked values a bit but still
expect mainly minor flooding during todays high tide cycle except
at OXB where levels are expected to just come shy of minor levels.
Seems the water in the bay had a hard time leaving last night as
the low tides came in higher than expected.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ089-
     090-093.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     VAZ084>086-523>525.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     VAZ095>098.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ099-
     100.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for VAZ075-
     077-078.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ632-
     633.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...AJB
AVIATION...JDM/JEF
MARINE...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...