Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021952
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
352 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
WILL KEEP LOW CHC FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION GOING ACROSS SERN VA
AND NE NC THRU 00Z. OTW...MSTLY CLR TO PT CLDY AS HIGH PRS REMAINS
OVR THE RGN. LOWS M60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. HOWEVER...A
LEE TROF PROGGED IN ADVANCE OF APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY WITH ANTHR WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY ACROSS NC. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LACK OF INSTAB SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...HOWEVER ENUF MSTR / WND CONVERGENCE
SEEN TO KEEP ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION MENTIONED ACROSS SE VA/NE NC.
H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS L-M90S XPCT M-U80S AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT
CLDY MON NIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION DSPTG AFTR SS. LOWS U60S-L70S
XCPT M70S BEACH AREAS.

ERN TROF SHARPENS ENUF TO ALLOW THE APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY TO ENTER THE
FA FROM THE N. BEST MSTR AND INSTAB SPRT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DVLP PROGGED ACROSS NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. OTW...SLGHT CHC AS BNDRY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE RGN. STILL
ABOVE NRML WITH H85 TMPS SPRTG HIGHS 90-95...XCPT M-U80S BEACH AREAS
BEFORE ANY CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION DSPTS AFTR SS. LOWS TUE NIGHT
U60S-M70S.

BNDRY WASHES OUT / DSPTS ACROSS THE REGION WED. STILL ENUF SPRT FOR
ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES THRU WED TOP OUT ARND 100 DEGREES WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS INTERION SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK SFC HI PRES WILL NUDGE IN FM THE W THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALNG THE NC CST THIS AFTN INTO MON.
THIS BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTION COULD PRODUCE ISLTD
SHOWERS OR TSTMS OVR SE VA (KORF) AND NE NC (KECG) THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY THIS EVENG. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO
MON AFTN...WITH JUST SCTD CU/AC/CI AND WINDS TURNING FM THE NE TO
THE SSW.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FM THE NW MON NGT...THEN SLOWLY
DROPS ACRS THE REGION TUE INTO WED MORNG. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SML CHCS FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENG SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN WITH SEABREEZES NR THE CST.
WINDS BCM SLY AFTR MIDNITE ~10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND
2-3 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS. A WEAK TROF LO PRES THEN APPROACHES FM
THE NW MON WITH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING THRU THE DAY. SCA CONDS WILL
COMMENCE OVER THE BAY AND NRN CSTL WTRS AROUND LATE AFTN MON AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT 15-20 KT WINDS OVER
THE BAY THRU ERLY TUE MORNG...WITH 4-5 FT SEAS AND 15-25 KT WINDS
OVER CSTL WTRS N OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. SEAS SHOULD DROP BLO 5 FT BY
MIDDAY/AFTN TUE. WEAK SFC HI PRES RETURNS TO THE REGION LATE TUE
THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE..MAS


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