Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
FXUS61 KAKQ 140825
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
325 AM EST Sat Jan 14 2017
A frontal boundary will remain well south of the local area the
into Monday as high pressure builds across New England. A series
of weak low pressure areas will track along that boundary...resulting
in periods of unsettled weather through early next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Cold front which crossed the FA from the N on Fri has moved into
SC as of early this morning. Cooler air continues to settle S
into the region as sfc hi pres builds ewd from the Great Lakes.
Weak system aloft entering the region from the W resulting in an
area of mainly light pcpn. Threat for a period of FZRA invof
far NNE areas of FA through early/mid morning appears to be
lower as temperatures have struggled to drop into the 30s
overnight. Dewpoints in the 20s are currently found over nrn and
central areas of FA and if pcpn were to become heavy
enough...temperatures may fall to the lower 30s.
However...doesn`t appear that pcpn will be heavy enough for that
to occur. Partial thickness scheme does suggest potential for IP
along-N of a LKU-OXB line through about 15Z/14. Otherwise...will
have highest PoPs (40-70%) - p-type RA - across nrn portions of
FA through today...15-30% farther S. Mostly cloudy today...w/
high temperatures from the u30s N to the m40s SE.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Weak sfc lo pres develops offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast Sat
night as S/W digs over the Delmarva. Will linger 40-60% POPS
along the coast this eve as the moisture plume begins to push
offshore and swd. Lows in the l-m30s N to around 40F far S.
Latest guidance continues to push bulk of moisture S of the
regoin tonight into Sun. Best chances at significant
drying/clearing expected to be across the ern portions of the
FA through Sun...while considerable cloudiness remains over the
rest of the FA. Highs Sun in the l40s NE to the u40s SW. Models
begin to spread moisture back NNE into the region Sun night into
Mon...but w/ the region E of the ridge axis (invof TN/OH
valleys)...forcing for widespread/significant pcpn (-RA) will
remain weak. Thus...will have 20-40% PoPs across the piedmont to
I 95 late Sun night...lowering through the day Mon. Lows Sun
night in the l30s N to the u30s S. Highs Mon in the l/m40s N to
around 50F far SE.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Above normal temps expected acrs the fcst area thru the extended
period. At this time, will go with a blend of the ECMWF and GFS
with respect to the timing/placement of fronts and the chcs for
showers. Best chcs will be Wed/Wed night and again on Fri.
Highs will range fm the mid 50s to mid 60s thru the period, with
lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s Mon night, and ranging fm the
lower 40s to lower 50s Tue night, Wed night, and Thu night.
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions with mostly mid and high cloud ceilings continue
to prevail across the region overnight. The cold front that
moved through the region is now well to the S. Arctic high
pressure centered over the Great Lakes will push colder air into
the Mid Atlantic region overnight. Some overrunning warm air
from the west will move over this colder air through early/mid
morning today and bring a chance of a wintry mix over portions
of the Md Eastern Shore and Northern VA northward. Light rain is
expected to occur over much of the remainder of the FA. Cloud
ceilings expected to lower to MVFR by daybreak and to MVFR/IFR
condition by the afternoon and evening. Vsby will likely stay 3
NM or better.
The lower ceilings will linger in place into early Sunday and
some light rain/drizzle will be possible into Sunday morning.
Conditions will gradually improve Mon as the cold air erodes and
southerly flow begins. Some clouds will linger but expect VFR
conditions into Tue.
SCA headlines continue for the Mouth of the Bay, Sound, and
southern coastal waters with sub-SCA conditions currently over
the other waters. NE flow up to 15-20 kt over the Mouth of the
Bay and Sound will end around 7 am, while 5 ft seas out 20 nm
will linger until midday over the coastal waters. Marine
conditions then improve this aftn into tonight as strong sfc
high pressure currently over the NE states weakens and slides
offshore. A weak northerly surge is expected Sun morning but
winds are expected to stay just below SCA criteria. A warm front
lifts north through the area late Mon, with winds becoming
southerly Tue ahead of the next cold front which crosses the
region during the middle of next week.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ654-
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ633.