Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 071501
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1001 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTENSIFIES WHILE LIFTING
NORTHEAST TO A POSITION WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE SOME CHANGES TO GRIDS BASED ON LTST RADAR AND HIGH RES MODEL
TRENDS. THE DRY AIR WINNING OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE AKQ FA WITH THE
PCPN NOT MAKING ANY FRTHR NORTH THAN A RZZ-ASJ-EDE LINE THIS MORN.
STILL NO PCPN RPTD AT ECG AS OF 10 AM. APPEARS THE AREA OF ISENT
LIFT BACK TO THE I95 CORRIDOR ACROSS NC IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING WITH
BOTH THE LTST HRRR/RAP MODELS SHOWING PCPN ASSCTD WITH DEEPENING
LOW OFF THE SERN COAST WILL BE CONFINED TO COASTAL SECTIONS AND
STAYING DRY WEST OF THE CHES BAY. IN FACT...DATA SUGGESTS ORF
DOES NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE PCPN UNTIL ARND 21Z OR SO. THUS...WENT
AHEAD AND CUT BACK POPS XPCT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CSTL AREAS WHERE
PCPN PROGGED TO SNEAK NE ACROSS CURRITUCK/VA BCH AREAS THIS AFTRN.
OTW...A MAINLY CLDY DAY AHEAD BUT DO XPCT SOME DIM SUN AT TIMES
SPCLLY WRN AND LWR MD ERN SHORE AREAS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WND FCST AS WINDY CONDITIONS DVLP ALONG
THE COAST WITH NE-N WINDS INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
SUSTAINED 20-30 MPH ALONG DELMARVA AND 25-35 MPH WITH 40-50 MPH
GUSTS FROM VA BEACH ON SOUTH LATER TODAY. HIGHS TEMPS IN THE LWR-
MID 40S INTERIOR NE NC/FAR SE VA TO AROUND 50 F ACRS THE N/NW
WHERE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE L-M40S
INTERIOR NE NC/FAR SE VA TO AROUND 50 F ACRS THE N/NW.

PVS DSCN:
FOR TONIGHT...LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN IN THE EVENING ALONG THE SE
COASTAL AREAS...PUSHING OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT OR EARLY MON AM.
ENOUGH COLD AIR WHEN COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL WRAP AROUND MSTR FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE BEFORE PCPN ENDS
AROUND 12Z MON...BUT DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST MAY ARRIVE TOO
QUICKLY SO POPS FOR THIS WILL ONLY BE 20-30% AND NO ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...KEPT RAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS. DRY
WEST. LOWS TONIGHT UPPER 20S- LOWER 30S..EXCEPT M30S SERN COASTAL
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST SUITE OF 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUPPORTING A
PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING OCEAN LOW MON MORNING/EARLY
AFTN. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW MON AFTERNOON WITH ENOUGH
UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE MOISTURE TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 18 TO
21Z...TRENDING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. DRY/PARTLY
SUNNY MON MORN/EARLY AFTN..WITH SKIES CLOUDING UP FROM 18-21Z.
MAINTAINED CHC POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH MOSTLY AFTER
21Z. THERMAL PROFILES WARM ENOUGH FOR THIS PCPN TO BE RAIN
SHOWERS. HIGHS MON MID 40S N/NW...TO LOWER 50S S/SE.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEEPENS AS IT EXITS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE FROM YET ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM PROGGED TO DIVE SE ACROSS THE REGION TUE. THIS TO
CARVE OUT A RATHER DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN US. CAA ALONG WITH
FALLING THICKNESSES RESULTS IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS MIXING WITH THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS ALONG/W OF I-95 LATER MON NIGHT...AND FOR
ALL AREAS ON TUE. LOWS MON NIGHT 30-35 F. SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMLS
PSBL (<1 INCH) ACROSS THE PIEDMONT MAINLY NW OF RIC PRIOR TO
12Z/TUE. A DUSTING/COATING PSBL AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS A FVX-
RIC- XSA LINE. WENT WITH MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS TUE DUE
TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT DESPITE HIGHS IN THE U30S TO LOWER 40S.
SCENARIO WOULD BE WITH TEMPS NEAR 40 F THEN FALLING AS SHOWERY
PRECIP DEVELOPS AND COLUMN COOLING PROCESSES COMMENCE WITH DEW PTS
IN THE 20S. ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE/FARTHER SOUTH WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE ON TUE...WHILE THE GFS/NAM/GEM GENLY SHOW DEEPER
MOISTURE STAYING EITHER N OF THE CWA OR CONFINED TO THE NRN 1/3.
WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR N...TAPERED TO
ONLY AROUND 20% ACRS THE SOUTH. BEST CHC FOR A BIT HIGHER SNOW
ACCUMS WOULD BE TUE EVENING ACRS MAINLY NE SECTIONS OF THE
CWA...WHERE UP TO 1-2" WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY 1" OR LESS
ELSEWHERE DUE TO DRIER AIR PREVAILING ON WESTERLY WINDS. LOWS IN
THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NE CONUS THRU
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH MAY SPARK ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FA WED. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHC POPS. DRY WX IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WED-SAT MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS THRU THE PERIOD
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CSTS TODAY INTO
MON MORNG. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER ACRS THE AREA TODAY AND
TNGT...AS THE LO MOVES NE OFF THE CST. EXPECT LWR AC AND SC AT
ECG/ORF AND POSSIBLY PHF DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE BEST
CHC FOR RAIN AT ECG AND ORF THIS AFTN INTO TNGT. ALSO...UPR 20S
TO LWR 30S KT WIND GUSTS EXPECTED THIS AFTN INTO TNGT AT
ECG/ORF...AS THE DEEPENING LO CAUSES THE PRES GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN
OVER THE AREA.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE MON THRU EARLY WED...AS
AN UPR LO MOVES FM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC STATES.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE AREA ESPLY FOR
RIC/SBY. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDS MAY OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING ROUGH WEATHER
BACK TO THE MARINE AREA TODAY AND TNGT. LO PRES INTENSIFIES OFF
THE SE AND MID ATLC CST THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...THEN QUICKLY HEADS
NE AND WELL OUT TO SEA ON MON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS
A QUICK AND SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS/SEAS ACRS THE SRN WTRS
LATE THIS MORNG THRU THIS EVENG...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
ACRS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA THRU THE DAY INTO TNGT. GALE WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CSTL WTRS S OF PARRAMORE ISLAND...THE CURRITUCK
SND...AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY. SCA`S ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WTRS FM LATER THIS MORNG OR EARLY THIS AFTN
INTO MON MORNG. ALSO...EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE TWO NRN CSTL ZNS
THRU LATE MON NGT...AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. HAVE SEAS
INCREASING TO 8-14 FT (HIGHEST S) BY TNGT. NEAR SHORE WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH 8+ FT FM VA BEACH SOUTH...SO HAVE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FOR SRN BEACHES. HAVE WAVES REACHING 5-6 FT AT THE MOUTH
OF THE BAY LATE TODAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING MON MORNING...BUT
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...AND SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED AT LEAST
INTO TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
VIRGINIA BEACH AND COASTAL CURRITUCK COUNTY FOR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS. 30 KT NE/NNE WINDS(~40 KT
GUSTS) WILL BUILD SEAS TO 9-10 FT NEARSHORE. HIGH SEAS AND
PROLONGED NE FLOW MAY CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND POSSIBLY SOME DUNE
EROSION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS
ALONG THE SHORE DURING HIGH TIDES. EXPECT COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES A
FEW HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER THE HIGH TIDES BETWEEN 7-8 PM SUNDAY
AND 7-8 AM MONDAY. FARTHER UP THE EASTERN SHORE ON THE ATLC
SIDE MAY NEED A CSTL FLOOD ADVSY MON MORNG DURING HIGH TIDE.
BUT...AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS MARGINAL AND UNCERTAIN...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ630-635>637.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ631-632-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR/JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
HYDROLOGY...ESS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ


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