Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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212
FXUS61 KAKQ 180536
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1236 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure returns today with mostly sunny skies and
seasonable temperatures. A warm front lifts north through the
area Monday and Monday night. High pressure becomes anchored off
the southeast coast Tuesday and Wednesday bringing a return to
well above normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Current wv imagery depicts the tail of an upper jet progressing
across the nrn Mid-Atlantic with a trough digging across the
Great Lakes. At the surface, low pressure is organizing off the
coast of the Delmarva. Light rain continues across
central/ern/sern VA and NE NC with temperatures ranging from
the mid/upper 30s N to the low/mid 40s SE under a cloudy sky.
Light rain will continue through midnight and then gradually
taper-off through the overnight hours as the primary upper
forcing lifts farther NE and as drier mid-level air arrives from
the NW as low pressure intensifies off the Delmarva, and then
heads out to sea by Sunday morning. Lows in lower 30s NW to the
upper 30s/lower 40s SE. QPF amounts to avg 0.25 to 0.50" N to
0.15 to 0.30" S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sfc high pressure builds over the region Sunday for a dry/mostly
sunny day. Highs mainly from the mid to upper 50s west of Ches
Bay (warmest south central VA), with cooler conditions, mainly
in the in the upper 40s/lower 50s close to the coast with light
onshore flow. Models bring next system and a return of moisture
back from the SW by Mon. Mostly clear Sun evening with
increasing clouds overnight from SW to NE. Lows mainly 35-40F
though readings may actually rise a bit after midnight across
the west. A slight chance for rain late west of I-95. With the
sfc high well off the mid- Atlc/New england coast on Mon,
overrunning moisture pushes across the local area with mainly
cloudy skies and a light E/SE flow. Best forcing remains off to
our NW however, so not necessarily looking at a lot of QPF. Will
carry PoPs to 40-50% most areas for now. Not a true CAD setup,
but a lot of clouds and shallow mixing will keep it cool for
much of the day, especially across the Piedmont. Late day highs
will avg 50-55F W/NW to the mid 60s far SE. Increasing SW flow
Mon night as upper ridge axis begins to amplify/build off the SE
coast.Models indicate some continued light QPF amounts Mon
night, but there is little forcing for precipitation so will
genly keep PoPs capped at just 20%. Milder with little drop in
temperatures due to the SW flow, lows ranging from the upper 40s
to mid 50s. Area will be firmly in the warm sector on Tue, with
strong upper ridge centered over the Gulf Stream off the SE
coast. GFS/NAM depict a lot of low level moisture across the
area so skies may start of mostly cloudy. Suspect the SW low
level flow and 850mb temperatures rising to +10 to +12 C will be
sufficient to scour out the low level clouds by late morning
and allow for a partly sunny day. Highs expected into the 70s
except for locally cooler conditions at the immediate coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A strong +2 st dev 500mb ridge will be located over the
Subtropical wrn Atlantic Wednesday bringing very warm temperatures.
Lows Tuesday night/Wednesday morning are forecast to be in the mid
50s to around 60F, followed by highs Wednesday in the upper 60s/low
70s over the Ern Shore, and at least mid/upper 70s elsewhere. There
is the potential for low 80s over SE VA/NE NC. A weak shortwave
trough is progged to rotate around the ridge Wednesday, and this
could result in some more clouds and low PoPs (20-30%) over the
Piedmont. The ridge slowly breaks down Wednesday night into
Thursday, but remains strong. Therefore, a cold front to the NW will
have slow progress reaching the Mid-Atlantic. PoPs Wednesday night
will range from 20-30% S to 30-40% N, then ~30% S to 50-60% N
Thursday. Lows Wednesday night will mainly be in the 50s, with the
potential for wide ranging highs Thursday possibly around 60F/low
60s N to the 70s SE depending on where the cold front reaches. Upper
level ridging will continue to prevail but gradually weaken off the
Southeast coast later next week into next Weekend with well above
normal temperatures continuing. There remains some uncertainty with
the cold front, with the general consensus for the front to be into
NC Friday with highs in the 50s to low 60s, and then lifting back N
as a warm front with highs in the 60s to around 70F by Saturday.
Forecast PoPs are mainly 20-30% Thursday night through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CIGS prevalent early this morning due to abundant low-
level moisture behind departing low pressure system. Conditions
will improve from west to east early this morning, but may take
until daybreak to reach VFR at the SE coastal TAF sites. Expect
KRIC and KSBY to improve by around 09z. VFR conditions
expected for the rest of Sunday with few clouds as high
pressure builds in. Winds will remain light thru the period.

Another round of rain showers and flight restrictions/lower
cigs are possible by Monday and possibly lasting through Mon
night/Tue morning with low stratus. Expect VFR/warm SSW flow to
prevail Tue after the early am clouds scour out. A cold front
approaches from the NW on Wednesday but expect VFR conditions to
prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest sfc analysis shows high pressure off the New England coast
with weak low pressure off the Carolina coast. Seas remain close to
5 ft over far southern coastal wtrs this aftn, but with a slight
downward trend expected and this being quite marginal will not hoist
any headlines. The aforementioned low slides NE along the coast
tonight and strengthens. A brief period of SCA criteria winds is
psbl over the wtrs, but with this expected to last less than a few
hours, will maintain previous thinking that a MWS or SMW will likely
be best suited to handle this. Pressure gradient then slackens into
Sun, with sub-SCA conditions expected to continue through at least
the middle of next week. NNE winds late Sun veer around to the ESE
Sun night as a surface high slides offshore, becoming southerly Mon
night into Tue as a warm front lifts north across the waters. SSW
flow persists into midweek, with seas remaining 2-4 ft.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Another round of record highs will possibly be challenged Tue
2/20 and Wed 2/21:

* Record highs:

* Date: Tue 2/20   Wed 2/21

* RIC:  77 (1930)  75 (1930)
* ORF:  77 (1991)  79 (2014)
* SBY:  75 (1930)  75 (1943)
* ECG:  78 (1991)  77 (2014)

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KAKQ radar will be down UFN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ
EQUIPMENT...AKQ



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