Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 270151
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
951 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure axis moves offshore overnight as a weak cold front
slowly drops into the region through Saturday. The front may
stall near the Virginia-North Carolina border Sunday into Monday,
as high pressure re-establishes itself north of this boundary.
Warm and humid conditions will persist this weekend into most of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Weak cold front is situated just north of the local area late this
evening with isold shwrs around our far NW counties. The question
that remains is will additional isold shwrs develop overnight
south of the weak front in area of pooling dew pts (mid 70s)
across eastern VA. Latest CAMS are split on this idea and
therefore given recent radar/sat trends am not inclined to
increase pops overnight. Guidance is also showing an increase in
mid clouds overnight and feel this is more likely so have
increased sky cover accordingly across central/SE VA. Warm and
muggy overnight with lows in the 70s.

The weak cold front is expected to slowly slide south into the
region during Saturday and possibly stall along/south of the VA/NC
border. Meanwhile, sfc high pressure reinforces itself over the
area as a mid-level ridge anchors itself over the cntrl
Appalachians. Expect dry weather with warm and muggy conditions
persisting through the day. Highs in the lower 90s inland/mid-
upper 80s beaches. Heat indices will struggle to reach 100 degrees
as dewpoints range from the upper 60s nw to lower 70s se.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The boundary remains stalled near the VA/NC border on Sunday and
is then expected to wash out on Monday. Mid-upper level high
pressure maintains itself over the cntrl Appalachians as the sfc
high to the north slides off the New England coast. Thunderstorms
are possible each aftn across NE NC and possibly far SE VA as
shortwaves ejecting from Tropical Storm Gaston move onshore. Exact
placement of these waves is still uncertain, thus only carrying a
20-30% POP on these days.

Little airmass change anticipated, therefore expect a continuation
of dewpoints in the upper 60s nw to lower 70s se and high temps in
the upper 80s to around 90F. Although it will still feel muggy
outside, heat indices will stay close to ambient air temps in the
lower 90s. Lows Sat/Sun nights around 70F inland/low-mid 70s
beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Going with a blend of the 12z GFS and 12z ECMWF for the extended
period. Will have a mainly dry fcst thru the period, except for
slgt to sml chcs (15-30%) for pcpn Tue thru Thu fm tropical
moisture along the coast and a cold front pushing acrs the area
late Wed into early Thu. More comfortable airmass will filter into
the region for late Thu thru Fri, as high pressure blds in fm the
N. Highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s Tue and Wed, in the mid to
upr 80s Thu, and in the lower to mid 80s Fri. Lows in the upr 60s
to mid 70s Mon ngt, Tue ngt, and Wed ngt, and in the mid 60s to
near 70 Thu ngt.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A weak cold front will slide southward through the TAF sites
early Saturday morning. Winds will generally be light and variable
overnight and from the northeast 5 to 10 knots on Saturday. The
front will dissipate Saturday with high pressure building over the
area Sunday through Wednesday. Mainly dry weather is expected
through Wednesday. There will be a chance for thunderstorms Sunday
afternoon and evening southeast portions (ORF ECG) and isolated
thunderstorms are possible Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-sca conditions will continue acrs the waters thru the fcst
period (tngt thru Wed). S/SW flow 5 to 15 kt continues into early
tngt, ahead of an approaching weak cold front. The front drops
thru the area late tngt into Sat morning, with winds shifting to
the N/NE behind the front. Expect 1-2 waves over the bay and 2-3
ft seas over the coastal waters. Onshore flow below 15 kt will
then continue for the duration of the weekend, as high pressure
slides by to the NNE of the region. Expect winds arnd 10 kt or
less for Mon thru Wed, as high pressure weakens or slides out to
sea. Weak lo pres areas or possible tropical lows will spin near
or off the SE or Mid Atlc during this period, and will cause long
period swells to propagate toward the coastal waters, with seas
remaining 3-4 ft.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The high temperature at Richmond Friday was 99 degrees. This tied
the record for the date set in 1975. This also tied the high
temperature for the year so far which occurred earlier this month on
the 14th.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/JDM
NEAR TERM...BMD/JDM
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...AKQ



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