Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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506
FXUS61 KAKQ 051830
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
130 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED WWA FOR LWR MD ERN SHORE PER CRNT RADAR
TRENDS. DID ADD LOW CHC POPS FOR SNOW SHRS NXT SVRL HRS ACROSS THE
NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE AREAS AS HIGH RES DATA SUGGESTS SOME OF THE
PCPN NOW EAST OF THE DCA AREA TRACKS SE.

OTW...PT SUNNY AND BREEZY TO WINDY EAST AND MSTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY
WEST. HIGHS 40-45.

PVS DSCN:
LOW PRS CONTS TO MOVE NE LATE THIS MORNING WITH THE ASSCTD PCPN
QUICKLY ENDING. XCPTN ALONG THE ERN SHORE WHERE SOME LGHT SNOW
WILL CONT FOR ANTHR HOUR OR TWO. WILL LET WWA EXPIRE FOR NRN NECK
AT 10 AM BUT KEEP IT GOING THRU NOON OR SO ACROSS THE LWR MD EN
SHORE. ACCUMLS BTWN 1-2 INCHES REPORTED IVOF LWR MD ERN SHORE...
GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE.

SAT LOOP/SFC OBS SHOWING SOME QUICK CLRG RIGHT BEHIND THE PCPN AS
IT ENDS BUT ADDNTL CLDNS NOTED OVR THE PIEDMONT WHICH WILL MOVE
EAST. THUS...SKIES BECOME PT TO MSTY SUNNY AS AFTRN WEARS ON.
HIGHS IN THE L-M40S. GUSTY N-NW WNDS AT 15-25 MPH WILL RESULT IN
WND CHILLS N THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE TN VLLY TNGT BUILDS EAST OVR THE MID ATLNTC
RGN SAT AND SAT NITE. MEANWHILE...A CSTL TROF DVLPS INVOF GULF
STREAM. DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS XPCTD THRU ERLY SUN. LOWS
TNGT M20S-L30S. HIGHS SAT 45-50. LOWS SAT NITE U20S-M30S.

S/W ENRGY WILL SPAWN YET ANTHR LOW PRS SYSTM OFF THE SERN US COAST
SAT NITE WITH THIS SYSTM PROGGED TO LIFT NE WELL OFFSHORE SUN.
MODELS KEEP ANY SGNFCNT MSTR WITH THIS SYSTM SOUTH OF THE ALBEMARLE
SND WITH JUST SOME LIGHT PCPN SNEAKING ITS WAY UP THE COAST ALONG
THE NRN OUTER BANKS AND SERN VA. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHC POPS (RAIN)
ALONG THE CNTYS THAT BORDER ALBEMARLE SND WITH A BUFFER ZONE OF
SLGHT CHC POPS UP TO AND INCLUDING THE TIDEWATER AREA. OTW...PT
SUNNY WEST TO MSTLY CLDY EAST. COOLER ALONG THE COAST
(M-U40S)...WARMER INLAND (U40S-L50S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
STATES NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH SO DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE FREEZING.

PRECIPITATION OVER SE VA/NE NC ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING SURFACE
LOW OFF THE COAST WILL END SUNDAY EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
DIG SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TUESDAY. DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW...EXPECT THE
PCPN TO BE SHOWERY IN NATURE. A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IS
INDICATED ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 EVEN WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPR 30S. PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN
CLOSER TO THE COAST ON TUESDAY. AS PCPN ENDS FROM THE WEST TUESDAY
NIGHT...PCPN SHOULD TURN TO SNOW TOWARD THE COAST AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE W/SW WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH DRY AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPR 40S MONDAY WILL LOWER TO THE
LOWER 40S BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS ARE FORECAST FROM 30 TO
35 MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING AND IN THE 20S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS MORNINGS SNOW EVENT HAS ENDED AND SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH BASES
AROUND 4-8K FT WILL CLEAR BY SUNSET. GUSTY NW WINDS DIMINISH BY
EVENING. MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
VARIOUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AFFECT THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY ORF/ECG AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. NORTHERLY WINDS MAY BECOME QUITE
GUSTY AT TAF SITES NEAR THE COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRIGGER RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PSBL IN
PCPN. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE AS OF 1 PM EST...
ALL GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN REPLACED WITH SCA. THESE ARE IN EFFECT
THROUGH 7 PM EST EXCEPT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

UPDATE AS OF 1030 AM EST...
HAVE ALLOWED GALE WARNINGS TO EXPIRE ACROSS THE CHES BAY WITH
LATEST TRENDS SHOWING SUBSIDING WINDS. HAVE REPLACED THE GALES
WITH AN SCA WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM. THIS ALSO INCLUDES THE
LOWER JAMES RIVER. GALES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS ARE SET TO EXPIRE
AT 1 PM AND WILL BE REPLACING THOSE WITH AN SCA AT THAT TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1008MB SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING NNE
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. MEANWHILE, COLD
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE WEST, WITH SHARPENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALLOWING FOR STRONG/HIGH END SCA WINDS AT 08Z,
WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTS TO GALE FORCE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS, CHES BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND (GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE OVER
THESE AREAS UNTIL MIDDAY). THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY
AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS NE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT EARLY THIS
MORNING...EVENTUALLY EJECTING NE TOWARD ATLANTIC CANADA BY AFTN
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY
DURING THIS PERIOD, AS THE LOW DEPARTS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE W-SW. WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20-30KT (15-25KT ERN VA RIVERS)
THIS MORNING...DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND
AOB 10KT LATE TNGT. GALE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE REPLACED
BY SCA BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE BAY AND SOUND BEFORE SUB-
SCA CONDS RETURN THIS EVENING.

SEAS AVERAGE 5-7FT NRN COASTAL WATERS AND 6-10FT SRN COASTAL
WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THIS AFTN AND
TONIGHT. EVEN AFTER GALES CAN BE LOWERED, SCA MAINLY FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS WL LKLY BE NEEDED AS SEAS TAKE SEVERAL HOURS TO DROP BELOW
5FT, ESPECIALLY SRN ZONES, WHICH COULD REMAIN AOA 5FT UNTIL SAT
MORNING. WAVES ON CHES BAY AVERAGE 4-5FT THIS MORNING...BEFORE
SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT THIS AFTN. WAVES MAY REACH UP TO 6FT IN THE
LOWER CHES BAY FROM AROUND SUNRISE THRU MID MORNING.

WINDS REMAIN LIGHT SAT/SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD
AND THEN OFFSHORE BY SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA TO GALE
FORCE IMPACTS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUN/SUN NIGHT, AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE SE CONUS AND LIFTS IN OUR DIRECTION ON SUNDAY.
SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 5-10FT SRN COASTAL WATERS AND 5-7FT NRN
COASTAL WATERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WAVES ON CHES BAY SHOULD
AVERAGE 3-4FT WITH UP TO 4-5FT IN THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY SUN NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL AND STONY CREEK. WARNINGS CONTINUE
FOR THE CASHIE AT WINDSOR... RICHMOND/WESTHAM AND THE MEHERRIN AT
LAWRENCEVILLE DUE TO THE RUNOFF FROM THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL.
SEE FLWAKQ / FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>634-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MAS/MPR
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM/MAM
HYDROLOGY...



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