Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 240729

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
329 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

High pressure prevails over the region through Tuesday. A weak cold
front drops into the region Tuesday night into Wednesday.


Ltst MSAS showing high pres across the region with a trof extending
along a PHL-ROA-AVL line. The high pres continues the mid summer
heatwave. Challenge of the day will be temps/dp temps and resultant
heat index values as the trof meanders east of the mts. H85 tmps
remain in the 20-22C range (+2 std dev). Given plenty of sunshine,
sfc tmps should easily reach the mid-upr 90s across the fa except
upr 80s-lwr 90s at the beaches. Airmass is mostly capped once again,
keeping the threat of any convection low. Models do hint at the
potential for an isltd tstm to develop along a sea breeze bndry
across the ern shore / wrn fringes of the Ches bay this aftrn, but
capped pops at 14% as confidence is low that this will occur.

Location of sfc trof this aftrn will be critical as to where dew pt
temps can mix out to arnd 70. East of there expect dew pt tmps to
remain in the low to mid 70s, resulting in heat index values aoa
105. Latest data suggests only then nwrn counties along with the
ern shore areas (due to sea breezes) stay aob 104. Thus, have
elected to expand heat advsry frthr West and North a bit. Will
have 2 segments, the additional counties for heat index values
around 105 with the original advsry btwn 105-110.


Warm and humid tonight with lows in the mid to upr 70s. Hottest day
of this stretch appears to be on Mon with highs in the mid-upr 90s
again, except upr 80s-lwr 90s at the beaches. Not out of the qstn
to see an AWOS record 100. Dew pt temps progged to be in the low-
mid 70s fa wide. This would agrue for most if not the entire fa in
a heat advsry. Only chc for isltd tstms is over the nwrn zones,
all depending on how far east any tstm off the mts can move.

The upper ridge begins to slowly break down Mon night into Tues as a
frontal boundary slowly approaches from the west. Remaining warm and
humid Mon night with evening convection limited to the northern most
zones. Lows in the low-mid 70s. Continued hot Tuesday with highs in
the mid 90s. Dew pts remain in the low-mid 70s resulting in heat index
values aoa 105 most areas (heat advsry range). There is a 20-40% chc
of afternoon tstms west of the Ches Bay after 18Z.


Stacked high pressure over the Southeast Coast allows zonal/westerly
flow aloft to settle across the region Tuesday night through the
week. A series of wx disturbances will pass across the region and
keep a chance for thunderstorms in the forecast each aftn/evening.
Pwats around 2.00-2.25 inches and dewpoints in the low-mid 70s
will result in muggy conditions with ample moisture present across
the area...making strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall
the anticipated impacts from thunderstorms. Combine the humidity
with temperatures remaining in the low 90s, and heat indices will
continue to run around 100-104 degrees with a few pockets in far
SE VA/NE NC reaching 105-106 degrees for an hour or two each aftn.
Lows generally in the low-mid 70s inland and mid-upper 70s beaches
each night.


High pressure of the Southeast coast will dominate the weather
during much of the upcoming week. A weak cold front will graze
northern portions of the area late Tuesday and Wednesday.

VFR conditions will prevail during most of the 06Z TAF period.
Included MVFR fog at SBY and RIC during the early morning hours
today. Dew points are a bit higher than 24 hours ago but wind and
low level temperatures may prevent fog development.

Southwest winds generally less than 10 knots will prevail today.
A windshift to the northeast could occur at ORF around midday but
did not include in the TAF. The chances for convection are quite

OUTLOOK...Another mainly dry day is expected Monday. A cold front
drops into the area Tuesday/Wednesday bringing isolated- scattered
showers/tstms both days...primarily during the afternoon/evening
hours. Brief reductions in VSBYS and CIGS to MVFR/IFR levels are
possible with the storms.


Generally quiet/benign conditions expected into early next week.
Winds generally s-sw aob 15kt tonight through Monday.
Zonal/westerly flow aloft settles across the region Tuesday
through the rest of the week. A series of weather disturbances
will pass across the region and keep a chance for thunderstorms in
the forecast each aftn/evening. There may be a surge in sw winds
to 15kt Bay/Sound and 15-20kt Monday night ahead of the
approaching weather, however SCA flags are not anticipated at the
moment. Seas average 2-3ft and may surge to 3-4ft Monday night.
Waves average 1-2ft and may surge to 2-3ft Monday night.


While its certainly going to be hot today thru Mon, climatologically
this is the hottest time of the year with several heat waves having
occurred in the past that have been far more intense than what we
will experience. Record highs are unlikely to be set Sun/Mon, and in most
cases, don`t expect that they will even challenged within 5 deg F.


Records  Sun (7/24)   Mon (7/25)

* RIC:   105 (2010)   105 (2010)
* ORF:   105 (2010)   105 (2010)
* SBY:   101 (2010)   100 (2010)
* ECG:    97 (2012)    99 (1949)


NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for VAZ065>068-077>090-092-093-095>098-513>516-518-520-


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