Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 212024
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
424 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary remains stalled along or just off the Southeast
or Mid Atlantic coast into Friday morning, with low pressure
lingering near the Southeast or Mid Atlantic coast tonight into
Friday morning. High pressure builds over the local area Friday
into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Late this aftn, remnant lo pres that was tropical cyclone Julia
was cntrd ovr ern SC. This lo pres area continues to pull bands of
showers and isolated tstms into the srn two thirds of the CWA,
with moderate to heavy showers affecting much of the srn half of
the region. Due to continued areal flooding going on acrs most of
SE VA and NE NC, and additional rainfall between .50 inch and 2
inches possible in these areas thru this evening, have extended or
expanded the Flash Flood Watch until midngt. Coverage and
intensity of the pcpn will decrease overnight, and Pops will
decrease rapidly as you go N of a Farmville to Petersburg to
Wallops Island line. Lows tngt will range fm the mid 60s to lower
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A frontal boundary and sfc low pres will linger over the SE and
Mid Atlantic coasts into Fri morning...before finally dissipating
and being pushed out to sea during Fri. The highest PoPs will
remain over SE VA and NE NC, and will gradually shift farther to
the SE and decrease (into Fri morning). Continuing to remain
cloudy or mostly cloudy across srn half of FA while partly cloudy
nrn portions tonight-Thu...then more sunshine all areas (w/
possible exception to areas in S Hampton Roads to NE NC) on Fri.
Highs in the u70s to m80s Thu...and 80 to 85F on Fri. Lows will
be in the m60s to l70s tonight...and range thru the 60s to arnd
70F Thu night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A trough digs over the Northeast US Saturday into Sunday as a ridge
builds over the Mississippi Valley. This will push a cold front swd
through the Mid-Atlantic during the weekend. 20/12z GFS/GEFS/CMC
agree on a faster timing, as early as Saturday morning, while the
20/12z ECMWF is about 12-18 hrs slower. Drier and more seasonal
temperatures arrive in the wake of the front. The timing will impact
highs on Saturday, with the slower solution supporting highs in the
low/mid 80s, while the faster solution supports highs in the upper
70s to low 80s. Opted to maintain continuity at this time (low/mid
80s) as prior overnight lows should be mild ranging from the upper
60s to around 70. Forecast highs for Sunday/Monday are in the
low/mid 70s, with lows Sunday morning in the upper 50s to low 60s,
with lows Monday morning in the 50s. The mid/upper ridge should
build in from the west by Tuesday with a moderating trend commencing.
There is only a slight chc PoP associated with the frontal passage
as moisture is limited.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A stalled frontal boundary remains near the coast this
afternoon with weak low pressure continuing to slowly move across
eastern NC. Weak high pressure is currently situated to the north of
the area. Showers continue to move across portions of SE Virginia
and NE North Carolina this afternoon with a slight decreasing trend
in coverage/intensity. Showers have also developed across central
Virginia and continue to propagate west of RIC.

Similar to the past few nights, tricky forecast is in store for IFR
versus MVFR. Expecting stratus to develop in this moist airmass,
thus have IFR conditions in the forecast for RIC/SBY/ECG with cloud
decks hovering between 500-600 feet at these locations later
tonight. Also cannot rule out the chance for showers near the coast,
especially during the first half of the overnight period. Reflected
this in the TAF by leaving showers in the forecast through 00Z for
ORF/PHF/ECG. Am expecting a gradual improvement in cigs to MVFR
conditions by morning with cloud decks rising above 1000 feet across
the region after 12Z. Winds across the area are generally onshore
around 10 knots. Winds are still expected to gust up to 20 knots
along the coast.

Outlook: Gradual improving conditions are expected Thursday into
Friday as high pressure continues to build just north of the area.
VFR conditions can be expected by Saturday. Another frontal
boundary approaches the area Sunday into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
The low associated with the remnants of Julia will linger in
vicinity of the Carolina coast today then gradually push farther
inland tonight into Thursday. An E wind will continue at 15-20kt
into tonight across the ocean/lower Bay/lower James/sound, and even
20-25kt during today from the mouth of the James through the mouth
of the Bay. Seas 4-6ft, with 3-5ft waves in the mouth of the Bay.
The wind slowly diminishes tonight into Thursday, but seas remain 4-
6 ft all waters. Have extended the SCA for the lower James/Currituck
Sound until 10 pm...and the SCA south of New Pt Comfort until 10 am
Wed. The SCAs for the coastal waters south of Chincoteague and the
mouth of the Bay have been extended into Thursday night. May
eventually need to extend the SCA north to the DE border for
Thursday.

The latest data suggests low pressure emerges back over the
ocean Thursday night into Friday, which suggests a modest 10-15kt
nne wind continues. This will allow seas to remain 3-5ft, with 2-3ft
waves in the mouth of the Bay. A cold front approaching from the n
Friday night and crosses the area Saturday into Saturday night. A
cooler and drier airmass arrives behind this front, so SCA
conditions are possible if not likely behind the front.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Continued onshore flow today has the potential to push tidal
anomalies to around 1.0-1.5ft above normal across the lower Bay and
lower James. This could push a few tidal gauges to or slightly above
minor flooding thresholds during high tide this afternoon.
Elsewhere, expect tidal departures to average 0.5-1.0ft above
normal. Coastal flood advisories/statements will be issued
accordingly by 7am. If modestly strong onshore flow persists into
Thursday another round of minor flooding is possible again during
high tide Thursday afternoon. Additionally, tidal anomalies will
build nwd through the Bay with persistent onshore flow and elevated
seas.

A beach hazard statement will continue today for a high threat of
rip currents and dangerous shorebreak across the southern beaches.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ012>014-
     030-031.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ089-
     090-093-524.
     Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ092-093-
     095>098.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for ANZ652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Thursday night for
     ANZ634-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Thursday to 4 AM EDT Friday for
     ANZ650.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ631-632.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ



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