Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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020
FXUS61 KAKQ 250042
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
842 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled conditions return this evening through Thursday as an
upper level trough approaches from the west. Conditions improve
on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FA remains stuck under in-situ wedge attm this afternoon...w/
w/ widespread lo clouds/cigs...onshore winds and temps mainly in
the l-m60s. Near term models continue to show that the wedge
hangs on over most of the FA through through 23Z/24-04Z/25...then
there is a surge northward of instability...mainly on the
coastal plain up into the eastern shore thereafter. Increasing
vertical ascent as upper level trough approaches from the WSW
combined w/ the surge of lower level moisture/instability (as
low level jet strengthens) will result in the development of
widespread SHRAS and at least ISOLD-SCT tstms over the FA. Will
be mentioning locally heavy rainfall...as QPF averages
0.50-1.00" (higher amounts possible). The low level wedge likely
hangs on over the (far) interior locations...w/ temperatures
not rising much above the m60s before tailing off late. To the
E...expecting temps and dewpoints to rise through the 60s even
l-m70s (far SE VA-NE NC) as sfc warm front pulls N. SPC
continues to highlight areas near-S of the VA-NC border SLGT
risk severe...will maintain heightened mention in the HWO for
now.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper low begins to lift NE across the mountains Thursday. A
strong shortwave trough will lift across the mid-Atlantic
during the afternoon/early evening. Once again PoPs increase...to
~60-70% from the Piedmont to central VA to the MD Ern Shore,
with 40-50% far SE. 500mb flow of 45-55 kt is expected along
with modest instability. Therefore...a few stronger to
marginally severe storms are possible. The main threat would be
wind and hail as low-level shear is minimal but a decent cold
pool aloft will exist. Additional QPF Thu aftn/evening should
average up to ~0.25" with locally higher amounts possible. Highs
Thu in the m70s W of I 95 to the l80s across eastern portions
of the FA.

The upper low continues to lift NE across PA/NY/New England
late Thu night into Fri. Drier conditions finally arrive as
deep layered WNW flow develops over the region. Some lingering
mid-level energy could result in SCT-BKN CU mid/afternoon Fri.
Otherwise...drier and breezy with highs in the u70s to l80s,
after morning lows in the m50s W to l60s at the coast.

Weak ridge aloft nudges into the region from the WSW Fri night
into Sat. Differing potential/timing in arrival of weak S/W
tracking into the FA by Sat afternoon. Combination of daytime
heating and that S/W in WNW flow aloft may result in at least
SCT convective development. Otherwise...partly cloudy Fri
night-Sat morning...then becoming mostly cloudy Sat afternoon.
Lows from the u50s NW to the l60s SE. Highs Sat from the m70s-
around 80F on the eastern shore to the m80s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Long term period starts off Sat night into Sun with a warm front in
the vicinity and plenty of energy passing through the WNW flow
aloft. This will lead to a chance of shras/tstms everywhere, with
low temps in the 60s Sat night and high temps in the low/mid 80s
Sun. Continued chance of rain into Mon with a weak cold front
passing through the area. Highs again in the low/mid 80s. Drier
weather into Tue and Wed behind the front, but still cannot rule out
the chance of a shra or tstm with continued cyclonic flow aloft.
High temps in the upr 70s to mid 80s both days.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR conditions across the CWA and TAF sites with east flow
and lots of moisture over the region. A low pressure system
over the TN Valley continues to bring lots of moisture and
precipitation over the Mid Atlantic region. A warm front just
south of the VA border is helping to induce some convection as
the moisture moves north. The rain and thunderstorms will
prevail over the area through the night and into Thu morning.
Widespread IFR ceilings are expected during the overnight. The
low will lift into the OH Valley by Thu afternoon and the precip
will move north and east of the region. Some scattered showers
will again be possible Fri afternoon but MVFR/VFR conditions
across the region.

Drier/VFR wx returns by Fri as weak high pressure builds over
the region. Unsettled conditions return for the weekend when
another frontal boundary affects the Mid Atlantic States.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest sfc analysis shows a low pres system centered over the OH
Valley with a warm front stretching across the VA-NC border. The
front slides north tonight, and with an increasing pres
gradient, expect SCA winds to commence over the Bay late. Also
expect seas to build up to 5 ft out 20 nm late. For Thu, a weak
cold front crosses the area, and SW flow may come close to SCA
thresholds over the Bay. Decided to just continue the headlines
there through Thu night since winds may ramp up again then.
Also, seas may continue to meander around 5 ft out 20 nm. Will
end headlines at the end of the third period attm. Lwr James and
Currituck Sound may potentially need to be added to the SCA
Thu/Thu night as well. Weak high pres then builds in for Fri
leading to improving marine conditions. Sub-sca conditions
expected to continue into the weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A period of onshore flow and high astro tides (moving toward a
new moon) will result in elevated water levels through Friday.
Issued several coastal flood advisories and statements for
tonight`s high tide cycle...refer to CFWAKQ for more details.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for MDZ024-
     025.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ021>023.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NCZ102.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ089-090-
     093.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     VAZ095>100.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ630>632-634-
     650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...ALB/JEF
MARINE...MAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



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