Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 171743
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA
143 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will settle to the southeast of the area this
afternoon. The next cold front crosses the area Saturday
afternoon and evening. High pressure returns late Sunday into
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Sfc high pres situated over the FA this morning will gradually
settle SE of the FA through this afternoon. WAA around the high
will bring about milder temperatures than the past few days
with highs in the m-u40s ern shore to the l-m50s inland. Sunny
now...but clouds will be increasing as a warm front approaches
from the W.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An area of showers is expected to cross the FA tonight (from NW
to SE) as the warm front moves through the area. With thicknesses
rising rapidly as the pcpn moves in and sfc temps expected to
remain steady or slowly rise through the 40s, it will be hard
pressed to see any snowflakes tonight. Best chance may be with
initial push of moisture on the eastern shore this evening as
dew pts will still be low. Cannot rule it out be not confident
enough to include in the forecast. Otherwise, turning out
mostly cloudy.

A cold front will approach the area Saturday morning, then move
through during the afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, a potent
upr low will move across the eastern Great lakes before entering
the area Sat night. SW winds ahead of that front will aid in
boosting temperatures back to or slightly above normal despite
cloudiness. Highs from the mid/upr 50s eastern shore to the
low/mid 60s inland. Because of deep-layered WSW flow in place
ahead of the upr low/cold front, the best PoPs thru 18z Sat will
be across southern/SE areas (40-70%) with limited chances
(10-25%) along/north of a FVX-RIC- SBY line. The cold front
reaches the coast late Sat aft/eve with the upr low pivoting
into the FA from the NW. Additional showers will accompany the
upr low and therefore will carry 25-40% PoPs most areas during
the aftn/eve (except 50-70% PoPs far SE in the aftn nearest the
front). Will hold on to CHC PoPs Saturday night as the upr low
dives SE across the mid-Atlantic region. The ECMWF is a bit more
robust with pcpn development across the local area Sat night
into Sun morning (given its farther SW track of the upr low) and
would indicate decent shower coverage. The GFS is drier and
limits best shower chances to the E/NE. The ECMWF`s track of
the upr low would also place the local area in a slightly colder
thermal profile which would be conducive for mixed RA/SN
showers Sat night/Sun morn. Have opted to keep all liquid pcpn
at this time given marginal thermal profiles and temps remaining
above freezing. Lows Sat night from the mid/upr 30s to the low
40s SE coast.

The upr low will be slow to exit the coast until Sun afternoon
with lingering low PoPs Sun morning. Cooler w/ gusty NNW winds
Sun. Mostly cloudy E-VRB clouds W in the morning...then
clearing later in the day as the upper level trough exits.
Highs 45-50 near the coast to the mid 50s SW of RIC/PTB.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will maintain dry wx Sun night into Mon evening,
as it slides over the area then off to the SE. A cold front will
drop thru the region Mon night thru Tue, bringing a chance of
showers. High pressure and cooler temps will follow for late Tue
night thru Thu. Highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s Mon, in the
upper 50s to mid 60s Tue, in the upper 40s to upper 50s Wed, and
in the upper 40s to mid 50s Thu. Lows in the 30s Sun night, in
the lower to mid 40s Mon night, in the mid 30s to lower 40s Tue
night, and in the upper 20s to mid 30s Wed night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue through this evening. As the high
pressure over the area shifts southeast, clouds will gradually
move in and begin to lower in advance of a warm front/low
pressure system. Expect scattered showers along with MVFR
conditions late tonight into Saturday at all sites, with the
best chance being at ECG. Some guidance suggests IFR conditions,
especially across the Tidewater and NE NC, but given the very
dry low levels already in place across the area, feel that
keeping MVFR is appropriate at this time.

Outlook...Some additional shower activity is possible later
Saturday in advance of the cold front. Dry and breezy NW winds
Sunday with VFR conditiions. VFR conditions expected into early
next week as well.

&&

.MARINE...
No headlines expected in the short term as WNW winds (10-15 KTS)
quickly become SSW today as high pressure moves off the Carolina
coast. A warm front lifts north across the region tonight keeping
winds out of the south below 20 kts with 2-4 ft seas. A cold front
crosses the area Saturday shifting the winds back to the WNW. CAA
lags and any surge not seen until Sat night.

Low pressure along this boundary is progged to rapidly deepen off
the Mid Atlantic coast Sat night before slowly lifting NE away from
the area Sunday. Strong CAA on the back side of the low will likely
require high end SCA`s late Sat night and Sun with possible low end
gales over the northern coastal waters Sun. Will hold off on any
headlines with this system given a late 4th/5th period event.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...MPR



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