Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301816
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
216 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MIDDAY SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1022 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING
IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS
REGION...WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
LATEST IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOWS AREAS OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND EASTERN TN
VLY TOWARD OUR REGION OUT IN BETWEEN WEAKNESS BETWEEN CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF COAST REGION AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE UPPER LOW IS STILL PROGGED
TO OPEN UP AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. THICK LAYER OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE AFTN. ADJUSTED
HIGHS DOWNWARD A DEGREE OR TWO...AND EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO HIGHS
OF YESTERDAY...MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL BR DRAWN NORTH
TONIGHT. DESPITE ONLY WEAK OVERRUNNING/MINIMAL ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND DRY AIR IN LOW LEVELS, MID/UPPER DYNAMICS COULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS. HAVE ADJUSTED POP TIMING TO BE
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH MAJORITY OF 30-40% POP ACROSS THE
CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVELS
MOISTEN UP ENOUGH THAT A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS HAMPTON ROADS AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA AFTER MIDNIGHT, SO A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THESE AREAS.
OVERALL, PARTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST AND MILD CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT, WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY 65 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MONDAY...
LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE FOR ALL BUT MD EASTERN SHORE
AREAS INTO THE AFTN MONDAY...AND AFTER PRELIMINARY EXAMINATION OF
12Z/30 DATA, WILL LIKELY INCREASE POP MON NIGHT INTO CHC RANGE OVER
NE NC ZONES. A BIT MORE MUGGY MON W/ HIGHS MON MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F.

TUESDAY... WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING...AS SOUTHEAST RIDGE BUILDS BACK
WEST ACROSS THE SE COAST. EXPECT A DRY DAY FOR MOST ON TUESDAY.
DESPITE MOIST SW FLOW, WHAT LITTLE WEAK FORCING THAT EXISTS FOR
ANY LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
WILL CARRY A 20% POP IN THE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDING ACRS
THE FAR S/SE FOR ISOLATED AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS. EXPECT
HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK
TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS
ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-
ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER RETREATS
FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA
LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
WITH MID-UPPER 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY
FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH LOW 80S AT THE
BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE COAST IS RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. BKN- OVC HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 15KFT TO
20KFT CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN CONFIED TO UPSTATE SC AND SOUTHERN NC THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH INTO NORTHEAST NC AND
PERHAPS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST VA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
MONDAY. EXPECT BKN- OVC CLOUDS TO LOWER TO AROUND 8-12KFT AGL LATE
THIS EVENING AT ECG...ORF AND PHF AND THEN DOWN TO 3-5KFT AT ECG
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE PRIMARILY AT ECG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS FAR N AS ORF OVERNIGHT THOUGH
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT AND POSE NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY. WINDS REMAIN SE TO SW AND LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE
REGION MONDAY. A SLGT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS IS INDICATED MAINLY
OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY. MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDS
WILL PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK OVER THE AREA. SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP AT SOME
LOCATIONS NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE NC COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COASTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE GULF
STREAM. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. THE
RESULT IS A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW (SE TO E) AOB 10 KT. SEAS 2-3 FT IN
THE NORTH AND 3-4 FT SOUTH. WAVES 1-2 FT. AS THE LOW LIFTS OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...FLOW
BECOMES NELY BEFORE BECOMING SLY LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SPEEDS
REMAIN AOB 15 KT. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL
PUSH SPEEDS TO 10-15 KT. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED THRU MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WATER.
WIND DIRECTIONS GENERALLY SW TO W THRU WEDS...AOB 15 KT. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO DROP INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
SEAS AVERAGE 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ/DAP
AVIATION...SAM/JAO
MARINE...SAM



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