Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271601
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON..THEN CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STILL SOME UNCERTAINITIES WRT THE WX ACROSS THE AREA NEXT 6-12 HRS.
SO BASED THE FCST FOR NEXT SVRL HRS OFF OF CRNT RADAR/SFC TRENDS.
BAND OF SHWRS/TSTRMS MOVG EAST ACROSS SRN TIER VA AND NE NC CNTYS
WILL CONT TO MOVE EAST SO KEPT THE LIKELY POPS THERE. JUST SOME
SHWRS NOTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA ATTM. VSBY SAT LOOP SHOWING
PARTIAL THINNING OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS PIEDMONT AREAS. SHORT RANGE
MOS NUMBERS SHOW TMPS QUICKLY RISING INTO THE 80S IF ADDNTL HEATING
CAN OCCUR. SO LEFT HIGH TMPS ALONE FOR NOW (85-90).

WRT CONVECTION LATER TODAY...MAIN ACTION SHIFTS TO THE S/W ENERGY
OVR KY PROGGED TO DRIFT SE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVE. CRNT TRAJECTORY
TRACKS MOST OF THE CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF I64. HOWEVER..STILL
EXPECT ADDNTL CONVECTION TO DVLP OVR THE MTS THEN MERGE WITH THE
ADVANCING S/W ENERGY. SVR PTNTL STILL EXISTS IF TMPS ARE ABLE TO
RISE TO FCST LEVELS. STAY TUNED.

PVS DSCN:
MADE SOME CHANGES TO GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS SFC OBS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR LINE OF
CONVECTION MARCHING EAST ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT ATTM. HRRR SEEMS
TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON THE CRNT TRENDS...SO INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS SRN MOST COUNTIES NEXT SVRL HRS AS THIS LINE MOVES
EAST.. VSBY SAT LOOP SHOWING SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AHEAD OF IT TO
KEEP THE LINE GOING.

LOWERED TMPS BY A CATEGORY MOST PLACES (CLOSER TO LAV GUID) GIVEN
ALL THE CLOUDS AND PCPN FROM THE MORNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. TUFF
CALL FOR SERN COUNTIES AS TMPS MAY GET TO 90 THERE...BUT THEN DROP
IN ANY CONVECTION BY ERLY AFTRN.

MAIN QUESTION FOR THIS AFTRN IS HOW MUCH HEATING WILL OCCUR BEHIND
THE FIRST DEPARTING S/W AND AHEAD OF NXT APPRCHG S/W NOW OVR KY
VLLY. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THIS COMPLEX TAKING A MORE SOUTHERLY
ROUTE (ACROSS SRN HALF OF VA / NC THIS EVENING.

SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE FA OUTLOOKED IN SLGHT RISK WITH A RECENTLY
ISSUED PWO FOR AREAS TO OUR WEST. STAY TUNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE STRONG COLD FRONT QUICKLY PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND RE-FIRE IN INTENSITY DUE TO THE ADDED LIFT. OVERALL...
PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS UNTIL THE FRONT CAN
PUSH WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING.
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS DIMINISHED ON
MONDAY...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
WEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH AS A COOLER
AND DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW-N.
WINDS AND SUNSHINE WILL BE KEY PLAYERS IN HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST RANGES FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO 90-95 SE.


BNDRY PROGGED TO STALL INVOF GULF STREAM MON NIGHT AND TUE WHILE A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC
POPS ALONG SERN CSTL AREAS MON EVENING. LOWS IN THE 60S...XCPT L70S
SERN CSTL AREAS. DRY TUESDAY ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS
DROP INTO THE 50S. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE L80S...U70S AT
THE BEACHES. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S W TO MID 60S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF DIGS OVR THE MID ATLC REGION TUE NGT
INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE OH AND MS VALLEYS
THU AFTN THRU SAT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OFF THE MID ATLC
CST TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN DRIFTS BACK TWD THE CST FRI NGT THRU
SAT. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN HAVE ADDED
SLGT CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT AND SAT. A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL
DOMINATE THE AREA TUE NGT THRU THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S
TO MID 60S WED AND THU MORNGS...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI
MORNG...AND RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREA OF CONVECTION SLIDING SE FM SW PA/NRN WV/NW VA TO CONT
TRACKING ESE THROUGH EARLY MRNG HRS W/ SOME WEAKENING AS IT DOES
SO. PTNTL FOR PCPN AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...ESP KRIC-KSBY. A
SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION FCST TO EXIT THE MTNS MID/LT MRNG...AND
TRACK OVR THE RGN MIDDAY INTO THIS EVE (ALSO W/ PSBL BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS/HVY RA). OTRW...SSW WINDS GUSTING TO 15 KT AND SCT-BKN
CLDS XPCD TDA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W.
THE FRONT IS XPCD TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY W/ LO PROB FOR
PCPN AND GUSTY MNLY W WNDS (TO 20 KT). MNLY VFR CONDS MON NGT INTO
WED.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES XPCD THRU MON. A CDFNT PUSHES APPROACHES THE MID ATLC
REGION TDA...THEN MOVE ACRS THE WTRS AND OFF THE CST LATE TNGT
THROUGH MON NGT. SSW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT THROUGH TNGT. WINDS WILL TURN
TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG.
WAVES/SEAS LIKELY TO RISE A FOOT OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO INCRSD SPDS
AND DIRECTION CHG TO NNW (MON NGT INTO TUE). GENERALLY NNE WINDS
15 KT OR LESS EXPECTED FOR TUE THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.