Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200259
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1059 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary will remain situated over the local area
through Saturday. A stronger cold front crosses the region late
Sunday into Sunday night...with high pressure building in for much
of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Evening convection has come to an end across the region with the
weakening surface front lingering across nrn NC. There is little
convergence along this front and with little in the way of upper
level lift, do not expect to see much in the way of showers
overnight. So have dropped pops down to slight chance in the
south and removed any mention of pcpn for VA/MD. The satellite
shows some high level cirrus lingering from the earlier
convection...but this should continue to thin and move away from
the area so expect to see mainly clear sky across VA/MD with a few
more clouds lingering in the vicinity of the front. For
temperatures, have dropped values several degrees at many sites as
conditions should be similar to last night and also used 10 PM
temps as a guide as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Remnant/weak boundary lingers across SE VA/coastal NC Sat. Although
not an exact repeat of today, Sat likely to be similar to today w/
mainly diurnally favored shras/tstms. Again will have highest
POPs 30-50% along/S of I-64...and POPs aob 20% on NNE. Vrb clouds
warm/humid with highs mainly from 85 to 90f.

Most models conmtinue to show period of limited convective
potential Sat night into early Sun afternoon as low level flow
becomes more SSW. A much more significant cold front will be
approaching from the NW Sun afternoon as trough aloft sharpens
across the Great Lakes/OH Valley. Continuing w/ POPs to 40-60% in
most places by mid-late Sun afternoon as cold front arrives.
Otherwise...partly-mostly cloudy warm and humid w/ lows Sat night
in the 70s. Highs Sun in the u80s to l90s.

Cold front will push off the coast Sun ngt w/ at least SCT shras-
tstms (mainly up to midnight). Sfc hi pres will then build into
the region providing much drier and more comfortable wx. Lows Sun
night from the m60s NW to the m70s SE. Highs Mon in the l-m80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will dominate most of the extended period, as it
blds into and ovr the area for Mon into Wed, then slides into the
Nrn Atlc for later Wed thru Fri. Expect Dry wx and comfortable
temps and humidity levels Mon ngt thru at least Wed, then warmer
temps and increasing humidity for Thu and Fri, as winds turn to
the SE or S. A cold front will start to approach fm the WNW late
Fri. Lows in the upr 50s to mid 60s Mon ngt, in the lower to mid
60s Tue ngt, in the 60s Wed ngt, and in the mid 60s to lower 70s
Thu ngt. Highs in the lower to mid 80s Tue and Wed, ranging thru
the 80s Thu, and in the mid 80s to near 90 Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions at all terminals this evening. ECG briefly dropped
to IFR with a shower around 23z, but these have since moved
out.Some localized MVFR fog is possible across south VA and NE NC
where it rained this afternoon, and have opted to include a tempo
MVFR visibility at ECG overnight. Otherwise, additional showers
and storms may develop Saturday afternoon along the diffuse
frontal boundary/trough near the VA/NC border, although conditions
will remain VFR away from any storms.

Additional showers/storms are expected Sunday ahead of a stronger
cold front. Dry and precipitation free behind the front early next
week.

&&

.MARINE...
No headlines in the short term tngt thru Sun. A couple of weak
boundaries will affect the area tngt into Sat, with a warm front
followed by a strong cold front affecting the area late Sat into
early Mon morning. Expect winds 10 kt or less fm vrbl directions
tngt thru Sun morng, then SW 5 to 15 kt late Sun into Sun evening
becoming NW or N 10 to 20 kt late Sun ngt into Mon morning. High
pressure blds into and over the region for Mon thru Tue, then
slides off the New England/nrn Mid Atlc coast during Wed. N winds
5 to 15 kt Mon ngt, NNE winds 5 to 15 kt Tue, then NE 5 to 15 kt
Tue ngt and Wed. Waves 1-2 ft, seas arnd 2 ft thru Sun, then
waves 1-3 ft and seas 2-4 ft late Sun ngt thru Tue.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
Due to an azimuth motor failure, the KAKQ 88D will be out of
service through the weekend. The replacement part will arrive on
Monday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...TMG
EQUIPMENT...



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