Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250209
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
909 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS
TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW TRACKS ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BASED UPON REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NNE ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE
AREA (KAVC TO OXB) ALONG COASTAL BOUNDARY. THANKS TO THE VERY
STRONG LLJ, THESE STORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH VERY QUICKLY (UPWARDS
OF 65-75KT). HOWEVERM NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. BEST UVM REMAINS
ALONG THE COAST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE/THETA-E RIDGE
AND A NARROW RIBBON OF VORTICITY...SO HAVE UPPED POP INTO LIKELY
RANGE OVER THIS AREA. HAVE ORIENTED A CHC POP JUST INLAND AND
SLIGHT CHC POP FOR THE RIC/TRI-CITIES AREA OVER TO THE NRN NECK
AND SBY. SFC FRONT TO THE WEST WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
WENT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVC EASTERN VA AND ALONG THE COAST, WITH
GRIDS AVGG OUT PARTLY CLOUDY OUT IN THE PIEDMONT. BUMPED UP TOWARD
THE HIGHER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE GIVEN CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER...DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S TO L60S AND BREEZY W-SW FLOW
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

FOR TUESDAY...FRONT STALLS JUST OFFSHORE AS FLOW ALOFT REMAINS
SWLY. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE SRN PLAINS AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NRN GULF. THIS LOW
WILL BE A MAJOR PLAYER DURING THE SHORT TERM AS IT LIFTS ALONG THE
FRONT. WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CNTRL VA...WHILE
THE FRONT REMAINS JUST OFF THE SE COAST. UPPER JET MOVES VERY
LITTLE TUES...BUT STRENGTHENS TO 175+ KT. MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER
SHEAR AXIS/VORT LOBE OVER THE SE ASSOCIATED WITH NARROW BAND OF
MOISTURE...WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH FOR LIGHT PRECIP TO CONTINUE ALONG
THE COAST. POPS INCREASE LATE ALONG THE COAST TO LIKELY AS THE LOW
EMERGES OFF THE SE COAST AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES. HIGHS
TUES FORECAST IN THE UPPER 50S NW TO MID 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY TRACKS NNE
TUESDAY NIGHT REACHING A POSITION NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT BY 12Z WED. THE
24/12Z SUITE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEMONSTRATE GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. A BAND OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS
PROGGED TO LIFT OVER THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. MID-LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION RAPIDLY INCREASES AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND COMBINED WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD RESULT IN
AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. POPS INCREASE TO
LIKELY TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS SE PORTIONS...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 40S NW...TO MID 50S SW...AND GRADUALLY FALL OVERNIGHT AS IN
SITU WEDGING DEVELOPS DUE TO RAIN AND A LIGHT N WIND. BY 12Z WED
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NW...TO NEAR 50 SW.

MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING
AS MOISTURE REMAINS DEEP AND FORCING REMAINS STRONG. CAA REMAINS
RATHER WEAK. HOWEVER...DYNAMICAL COOLING SHOULD DRIVE TEMPERATURES
DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 30S OVER THE NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES THROUGH WED
MORNING...WITH UPPER 30S/LOW 40S ELSEWHERE. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE
SURFACE/850MB LOW AND CLIMO THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE
ACCUMULATING SN WOULD BE ACROSS THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES. AT
THIS TIME A 1-2IN ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST OVER
LOUISA/FLUVANNA...BORDERED BY LESS THAN 1IN. MOISTURE SHALLOWS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO PCPN SHOULD STEADILY LESSEN IN INTENSITY
BEFORE ENDING LATE WED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LOCATIONS THAT
CHANGE TO SN COULD ACTUALLY SWITCH BACK OVER TO -RA AS THE INTENSITY
WANES. OVERALL LIGHT SN ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE NW OF THE RIC METRO
AREA.

A BRIEF LULL IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT...BEFORE A SECONDARY CLIPPER-TYPE
SYSTEM DIVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THANKSGIVING
DAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHC OF -SHRA OR -SHSN (OR A MIX THEREOF) TO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST BY AFTERNOON WITH PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED FROM W-E. MORNING
LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 30 NW...TO THE MID 30S SE...FOLLOWED
BY HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z/24 GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
WILL HAVE A DRY FCST FOR THE REGION WITH CHILLY/BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AT THE START...WHICH WILL MODERATE TO ARND OR NEAR NORMAL FOR SUN
AND MON. COOL HI PRES WILL BLD INTO AND OVR THE AREA THU NGT AND
FRI...THEN SETTLES OFF THE MID ATLC AND SE CST FOR SAT THRU MON.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S FRI...IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S
SAT...IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S SUN...AND IN THE 50S MON. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S FRI AND SAT MORNGS...IN
THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S SUN MORNG...AND IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S
MON MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS
PRODUCED GUSTY S-SW WINDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. GUSTS HAVE REACHED
AS HIGH AS 33 KNOTS AT THE TAF SITES. MID-LEVEL DECK INLAND
CONTINUES TO SCATTER OUT...WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CLOUDS WITH DECKS
3-4K FT AGL REMAINING. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND LOW-MID CLOUDS
LOCATED ALONG THE SE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NEWD...POSSIBLY REACHING NE NC AND TAF SITE KECG BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. LEFT MENTION OUT OF 18Z TAFS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE BUT
WILL ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AOB 10-12 KT
THIS EVENING AND AOB 10 KT OVERNIGHT. CIGS MAY LOWER THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...RESULTING IN SOME PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST IFR VSBYS AS WELL...BUT BASED ON
MIXING/DISPERSION AND SUFFICIENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...HAVE
STAYED MVFR/VFR WITH THE OVERNIGHT TAFS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
KECG WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE SMALLER. TRENDED CIGS DOWN
AS WELL...BUT KEPT MENTION OF IFR OUT ATTM BASED ON CONFIDENCE.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUES WITH VFR CONDITIONS. SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT TUES NIGHT...LIFTING ALONG THE SE
AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS WEDS. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN WIDESPREAD RAIN. GUSTY WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA`S HEADLINES IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENG FOR THE CHES
BAY...JAMES RIVER FM JAMES RIVER BRIDGE TO HAMPTON RDS
BRIDGE...AND THE CURRITUCK SND. SCA IN EFFECT FOR THE CSTL WTRS
THRU LATE TNGT. S WINDS WILL DIMINISH TNGT...THEN SHIFT TO THE W
THEN N LATE TNGT THRU TUE MORNG...AS WEAK COLD FRNT MOVES THRU.
VERY STRONG NE TO NW WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE TUE NGT INTO
WED NGT...AS LO PRES TRACKS NE JUST OFF THE E CST. EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG SCA CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE AND POSSIBLE GALES OVR
THE CSTL WTRS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED TODAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY (11/24).

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...MAS/SAM
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...







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