Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200119
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
919 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LTST MSAS SHOWING SFC HIGH OVRHD AND WILL CONT TO DRIFT E OVRNIGHT.
LTST SAT LOOP SHWNG WDSPRD CI SPILLING OVR THE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE
NW WITH SFC OBS SHWNG WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED SINCE SUNSET. SFC TMPS
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S BUT NOTING DP TMPS HAVE REMAINED STDY OR
RISEN A DEGREE OR TWO THIS EVE. LTST MODEL / MOS DATA SPRTS CRNT
FCSTD MINS IN THE M-U30S W OF CHES BAY AND ERN SHORE AREAS AWAY
FROM THE WATER...40-45 AT THE BEACHES.

ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE WHERE MINS REACH THE M30S...
GIVEN THE LTST MODEL / MOS DATA...SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE
LAST SHIFTS THINKING...SO NO HEADLINES PLANNED. JUST A HWO MENTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS THE CLIPPER FRONT, WITH
THE ASSOCIATED CLIPPER FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS EARLY
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS
ALONG/JUST OFF THE SE COAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG UPPER VORT
MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS TUESDAY NIGHT-LATE WED, THUS ENHANCING UVM ALONG
THE FRONT. HOWEVER, AS WE SAW WITH THE LAST SYSTEM YESTERDAY, LLVL
MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS REMAINING ON THE ORDER OF
0.75-1.00". STILL, MODELS ARE INTENT ON LIGHT QPF THROUGH THE
AFTN/EVE HOURS ON TUESDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSEST TO BEST SLUG OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. WILL STICK WITH A
CHC POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TUE
AFTN...LINGERING INTO TUE NGT OVER THE COASTAL AREAS AS MOISTURE
SHIFTS EAST AND ALONG COASTAL TROUGH. FOR HIGHS, LOOK FOR MAXIMA
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS TUE NGT IN THE U40S WELL INLAND TO MID 50S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS
AS THE TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WL THEREFORE KEEP
FORECAST DRY WEST OF I-95 ON WED, WITH LOW CHC POP FARTHER EAST
FOR SOME SCT SHRAS OVER COASTAL AREAS/ERN SHORE. HIGHS WED
REMAIN BELOW CLIMO NUMBERS...GENERALLY IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED NIGHT THRU
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS (~30%) ACROSS FAR EASTERN
ZONES WED NIGHT...LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) OVER THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE ON THURS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COASTAL LOW LATE IN THE COMING WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...PUSHING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION NEXT SUNDAY. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED.
HIGHS THU 60-65...THEN FRI-SUN IN THE MID/UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE 40S
TO LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS INDICATED FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD OTHER THAN
SOME SCT HIGH CLOUDS...POSSIBLY GOING BROKEN DURING THE DAY MONDAY
NORTHERN PORTIONS. WINDS WILL BE CALM TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT
AND THEN BECOME S/SW UP TO 10 KNOTS ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
THEN LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS FROM THE NW ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY UNTIL 10
PM EDT. SCA CONTINUES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY LATE
THIS AFTN/EVE...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO
SUBSIDE. WILL DROP HEADLINES FOR THE RIVERS AT 4 PM...AND SHOULD
BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/SOUND AT 7 PM...AND BY
MIDNIGHT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY
CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE NE
OFF THE COAST WED-FRI...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF SCA CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS
WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT. WAVES REACHING 4 FT ON THE BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB/LSA





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