Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210824
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
424 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY...THEN
LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND OUT TO SEA TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA AND OFF THE COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED LO PRES ELONGATED FM EXTRM SW VA SSE
INTO SC. THE CNTRL AREA OF THIS LO PRES...WILL MOVE EWRD ACRS THE
CAROLINAS TODAY...REACHING ERN NC BETWEEN 18Z-21Z...THEN MOVING
NE OFF THE MID CST TNGT INTO EARLY FRI MORNG. SHRTWV ENERGY
APPROACHING FM THE W WILL HELP DEEPEN/INTENSIFY THE LO
SOMEWHAT...AS IT PASSES THRU SE VA/NE NC LATER TODAY. THIS WILL
MAKE FOR A TRICKY FORECAST WITH A COOL/WEDGE SCENARIO SETTING UP
ACRS MUCH OF VA AND LWR MD. ALONG/S OF THE BOUNDARY...S-SE WINDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SFC LO WHICH SHOULD BRING A SURGE OF
WARM/UNSTABLE AIR INTO SE VA/NE NC THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS
EVENG. THE RESULT WILL BE QUITE A TEMP CONTRAST FM NW TO SE...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPR 50S/LWR 60S NW AND IN THE MID TO UPR 70S ACRS NE
NC. TEMPS ACRS THE NW HALF OF THE FA SHOULD ACTUALLY HOLD STEADY
THROUGH TODAY (OR RISE ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FM DAYBREAK).
ACRS THE SE (WHERE WARMER/MORE UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE IN PLACE)...
THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF TSTMS THIS AFTN. SPC CURRENTLY HAS
AREAS ALONG/S OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR WX.
DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SFC LO AND HOW MUCH SUN
PEEKS THRU...THE CLOUDS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT A STRONGER
STORM IS ABLE TO DEVELOP OVER NE NC. BASED ON GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR THIS SYSTEM...WILL HAVE POPS INCREASING TO 70%-80% DURING
TODAY ALL AREAS. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF
0.25-0.75".

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SFC LO MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TNGT...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN CLOUDS/POPS. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S NW
TO THE UPR 50S SE. SFC HI PRES TO THE WNW PREVAILS FOR MUCH OF
FRI...ALLOWING FOR SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS. HIGHS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S. HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO SHOW A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FM THE N LATE FRI...AND PASSING THRU THE AREA
FRI EVENG/NGT. THIS FRONT WILL JUST PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS...ACRS
MAINLY THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S
NW TO THE MID TO UPR 50S SE. BY SAT...COOL HI PRES SETTLES OVER
THE MID-ATLC REGION. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED WITH N WINDS BECOMING
ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY HELPING TO KEEP MAX TEMPS IN CHECK. HIGHS
70-75 INLAND/PIEDMONT...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 60S NEAR THE WATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER FLORIDA ON
SUN...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE. THE
GFS TRIES TO FLATTEN/BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN LATE TUE INTO WED AS
IT IS WEAKER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE DESRT SW TO THE
SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. ECMWF IS GENLY PREFERRED AT THIS TIME GIVEN
THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A
WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON SUN...AS FLOW TURNS AROUND TO THE SSW
WITH SFC HIGH PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. A WEAK WARM FRONT STILL
PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND NRN MID ATLC REGION
LATE SUN AFTN/SUN NIGHT...BUT BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO
OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS RISE INTO THE LWR 80S INLAND AND
IN THE 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FROM MON-WED...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE
AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR
NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER MAINLY THE NRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON MON...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TUE/WED. IF GFS ENDS UP BEING
CORRECT...POPS FOR WED WILL NEED TO BE RAISED. SUMMERLIKE WX
RETURNS WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO
85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S TUE/WED. CONDITIONS WILL
GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRES SYSTEM. EXPECT
CIGS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO MVFR BY/JUST AFTER SUNRISE W/SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...BY 12Z/8A AT RIC/PHF...AND BY LATE
MORNING AT SBY/ORF/ECG. EXPECT A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS
NC AND BRIEFLY PULLS A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE VA TIDEWATER AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL CLEAR THE COAST AFTER
00Z FRI AND WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA...RETURN THE REGION TO VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST CONDITIONS REFLECT E-NE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
MORNING AVERAGING 10-15KT. LATEST ANALYSIS FEATURES AN AREA OF SFC
LOW PRESSURE INLAND OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS, WITH AN ASSOCIATED
WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING BACK INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND DEEP
SOUTH. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24-46 HOURS. APPEARS THAT SFC LOW
WILL PUSH NE ALONG THE NC COASTAL PLAIN , PUSHING OFFSHORE AND
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT. QUICK
TIGHTENING OF SFC PG, A RESULT OF STRONG 6-HR PRESSURE RISES ON
THE ORDER OF 6-8 MB ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS IT RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT, SHOULD ALLOW FOR ONSHORE WINDS
TO QUICKLY BACK TO THE NNW, WITH A STRONG SCA SURGE OF WINDS
ACCOMPANYING THE WIND SHIFT. SCA FOR STRONG SCA CONDITIONS NOW GO
INTO PLACE AT NOON FOR THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES, MAINLY TO
ENCOMPASS E-SE FLOW IN THE LOWER BAY/SOUND/SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, BEFORE WINDS BACK TO THE NNE
TONIGHT. FOR THE UPPER BAY, BEST SURGE OF WINDS LOOKS TO BE
DELAYED UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTN. SCA HEADLINES ALSO NOW IN PLACE
FOR THE CURRITUCK SOUND AND COASTAL ZONES.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
QUICKLY SCOOTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS COOL ~1030 MB
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES BEING NEEDED EXISTS WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT AS
IT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE RESULTANT SFC
FLOW BACKING TO THE S/SE, AVGG AOB 15 KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ633-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.