Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260635
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
235 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST SFC DATA AT 00Z SHOWS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH JUST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THE SFC RIDGE EXTENDS WEST INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM WV AND NWRN VA ACROSS SERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO BEGIN THE TONIGHT
PERIOD...BUT EXPECT THAT THIS WILL THIN OVERNIGHT. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...SEEING MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AS ANY DAY TIME CU
IS DISSIPATING. AS FAR AS PRECIP THOUGHTS REMAIN UNCHANGED AS THE
SFC HIGH WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKED
GOOD AND READINGS THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING CLOSE TO THE
MOS GUIDANCE. DID TWEAK VALUES A LITTLE IN THE SE VA REGION BASED
ON LOWS LAST NIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS ~1016 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE
LOWER MID-ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NC. TO THE SOUTH, A WAVY QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BACK INTO THE LOWER TN
VLY. ALOFT...A BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND IS ALLOWING FOR NW FLOW OVER THE MID ATLC.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL BRING ANOTHER DRY/PLEASANT
EVENING OVER THE AREA TNGT. DRY AIRMASS SHOULD INHIBIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR MOST, BUT AS WITH THIS MORNING, A FEW POCKETS OF
SHALLOW GROUND FOG ARE POSSIBLE AT SUNRISE. A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY
AND WINDS AOB 5 KT WILL RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ALLOWING EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S (SOME UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST)...SIMILAR TO TEMPS OF
LAST EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BUILD OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY, SHUNTING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARYINTO
THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
MEANWHILE, SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN
WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE. RESULTANT WEAK PRESSURE FALLS ON THE LEE SIDE
OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL ALLOW WEAK LEE/THERMAL TROUGHING TO
SHARPEN JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION SUN...AND WILL BRING MODEST
MOISTURE RETURN ON BREEZY LOW LEVEL S-SE FLOW. SSE FLOW WILL PUSH
PW VALUES TO AROUND 1.5-1.75 INCHES BY 00Z MON/8PM SUN EVENING.
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP OVER THE LOCAL AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT SUN
AFTERNOON, WITH THE DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH PROVIDING A FOCUS AREA
FOR ISO TO WIDELY SCT STORMS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS
ALL STILL INDICATE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT/INSTABILITY WITH
WHICH TO WORK, AND WARRANT LITTLE MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
END CHANCE POPS (20-30%) SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOOK FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TOMORROW WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 INLAND...MID
TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

HAVE RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS SUNDAY/EARLY MON WITH WEAK LIFT REMAINING IN PLACE AND SCT
CONVECTION ONGOING JUST TO THE W-NW...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY (CLEARING LATE) AND MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

MONDAY...

NWLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS ON MON AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES FURTHER
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES
IN OUR DIRECTION. SFC/INVERTED TROUGH LOCATES OVER THE CAROLINAS
INTO SW VA MON AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL ENERGY PROGGED TO DROP OVER
THE REGION MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND MODEL THETA SURFACES
INDICATE THE BEST MOISTURE IS CO-LOCATED WITH BEST LIFT ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. HOWEVER, PRECIPITABLE MOISTURE REMAINS AT OR JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMAL. THUS WILL MAINTAIN 30-40% (CHANCE) POPS WITH THIS
SYSTEM RATHER THAN TREND RAIN CHANCES UPWARD. HIGHS MONDAY A TOUCH
LOWER WITH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER AND UPTICK IN LLVL MOISTURE, BUT
STILL NEAR CLIMO NORMS; GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. EARLY
MORNING LOWS A BIT MILDER STILL WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND LLVL
MOISTURE...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

TUESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDS FARTHER EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ON TUESDAY, AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...SETTLING INTO THE CAROLINAS BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FOCUS FOR PULSE CONVECTION LOOKS TO SHIFT
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT,
AND HAVE THUS DIMINISHED POPS NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THIS PERIOD.
MAINTAINED A CHANCE POP OVER THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH BEST
LIFT/MOISTURE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA
(MAINLY SOUTH OF US-58).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
KEEPING DRY WX IN PLACE. BY THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DIVE SOUTH FROM THE OH VALLEY...INITIALLY BRINGING ISOLD TSTM
CHANCES THU AFTN...THEN A BETTER CHANCE OF SCT SHRAS AND TSTMS
THU AFTN/NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH. WILL KEEP A
SOLID CHC OF PCPN (30-40%) ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN PARTS OF THE FA
NEXT FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT STALLED TO OUR SOUTH AND THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT.
HIGHS WED/THU IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT
THE BEACHES. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S NEXT FRI/SAT. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LGT WINDS AND A MAINLY SKC WILL BE INDICATED FOR THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE REGION. DESPITE DEWPTS
BEING A BIT HIGHER THAN 24 HRS AGO...BLYR RMNS DRY ENOUGH THAT
FOG FORMATION THIS MORNING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT ANY TERMINALS.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY AFFECT THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AT
TIMES DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. SLGT TO LOW CHANCES FOR TSTMS
EXIST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RMNS NR THE WTRS THROUGH MON. S-SE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 15 KT THROUGH THIS TIME. S-SE WINDS AOB 15 KT
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES
ITSELF OVER THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. WAVES OVER THE BAY THRU THE
PERIOD WILL AVG 1-2 FT...W/ 2-3 FT SEAS OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ESS/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ALB/WRS
MARINE...ALB/JDM


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