Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 160131
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
931 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
IN MY 20 YEARS HERE AT AKQ...NOT SURE I HAVE SEEN ALL THESE EVENTS
OCCURRED ACROSS THE FA AS THEY HAVE DURING THE PAST FEW HRS. 1) A
30 DEGREE TEMP DROP IN 2 HRS...2) WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE
BAY GUSTING BETWEEN 60-70 MPH...3) SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...4) SOME
SLEET BEING REPORTED W & N OF RIC. JUST ANTHR DAY IN PARADISE.

CULPRIT IS A STRONG COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE THRU THE NIGHT. MDT TO
OCNL HVY RAINFALL CONTINUES ALONG AND E OF I95 WITH PCPN QUICKLY
TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WILL TREND GRIDS WITH HIGH POPS
NEXT 1-3 HRS THEN QUICKLY END W-E AFTR MIDNIGHT WITH ALL SHORT
RANGE MODELS SHOWING A FAIRLY QUICK DRYING OF THE COLUMN RESULTING
IN DCRG CLDNS AND CLRG EXPECTED AFTR 06Z. SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN
AS PCPN ENDS...BUT WON`T INDCT THIS IN GRIDS ATTM. THE GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 30-40 WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALONG THE COAST NEXT
SVRL HRS THEN SLOWLY BEGIN TO DMNSH LATE. INLAND WINDS 20-30 MPH
WILL DMNSH LATE AS WELL. LSR OF THIS EVENING EVENTS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST DURING THE
SHORT TERM. DUE TO N TO NW WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...
CLOUDS FROM STREAMERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH SIDE HAMPTON ROADS ON WEDNESDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S. ON WEDNESDAY...
TEMPERATURES MAY GET NO HIGHER THAN THE MID TO UPR 40S ALONG THE
COAST INCLUDING THE NORFOLK AND VIRGINIA BEACH AREA AND THE LOWER
EASTERN SHORE. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING AGAIN ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO
AROUND 30 OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE AS WELL
INCLUDING LOCATIONS THAT ONLY FALL TO THE LOW TO MID 30S. ANY NEEDED
HEADLINES WILL BE DEFERRED TO LATER SHIFTS.

TEMPERATURES WARM A BIT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S OVER
INTERIOR AREAS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TOWARD THE
COAST...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON A STALLED
BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI NIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SAT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO FAR SE VA/NE NC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWING
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT AND SKIRT ACROSS NRN VA ON SAT. A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND MAY BRING A
BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA (INCLUDING THE
MD/VA EASTERN SHORE) SAT AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
AND DISSIPATING. THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW SAT
NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HAVE VERY LITTLE
IMPACT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION SUN...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE BY SUN EVENING AS A RELATIVELY
FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN INTO THE
AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC
LOW TRAVELLING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND
GENERAL MOVEMENT IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE VERSUS THE ECMWF...THEREFORE
TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST AND LIMITED
COVERAGE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH TUE...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON MON...INCREASING CIRRUS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95 (MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS
TUE SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON
MON/TUE NIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE AREA. EXPECT N WINDS TO GUST TO
OVER 30KT UNTIL 05Z WED. WINDS WILL RELAX A BIT OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL
STILL GUST TO 20KT. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL ALSO SUBSIDE BY
05Z...ENDING FIRST AT RIC.

SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNGS WILL CONTINUE AS PLANNED FOR ALL WTRS TDY INTO TNGT. A
STRONG COLD FRNT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE MID ATLANTIC
CST...WITH GUSTY SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRNT TO BE FOLLOWED BY
STRONGER NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRNT. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 35-40 KT OVRNGT
AS THE FRNT PUSHES OFFSHORE AND HI PRES BLDS IN FROM THE W WITH
LARGE PRES RISES. WAVES WILL RISE TO 4 TO 6 FT OVR THE BAY...AND
SEAS WILL RISE TO 6 TO 9 FT ON THE CSTL WTRS. HI PRES CONTINUES TO
BLD IN THRU WED AFTN...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL HAVE THE GALES ENDING AT 7 AM FOR THE
BAY/RIVERS...AND HOLDING INTO THE ERLY AFTN FOR THE CST AND SOUND.
HI PRES SLIDES NE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WED NGT THRU FRI...AS A WEAK CSTL TROF DEVELOPS OFF THE SE CST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ021>024.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ012.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>085-087>094.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LSA
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...MAS






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