Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 151852
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
252 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds north of the region today into the weekend.
Hurricane Jose lifts well offshore of the Southeast coast late
in the weekend and Monday, then off the Mid-Atlantic coast on
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Latest surface analysis depicts high pressure centered over
WV/wrn PA, with a weak trough in vicinity of the coast. Aloft, a
trough remain over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Conus.
Temperatures this morning range through the 70s with morning
stratus lifting and dissipating. The upper trough axis lingers
near the coast today, but the overall system will continue to
weaken as a ridge builds in from the west. Isolated to widely
scattered showers are possible in the vicinity of the upper
trough axis, and mainly confined near sea/bay breeze boundaries.
Coverage will be limited by warm temperatures aloft and limited
moisture. Marginal instability (mixed-layer CAPE values ~500
J/kg) may result in a rumble or two of thunder. Afternoon cu
will result in a partly sunny sky. Highs generally in the
low/mid 80s.

Showers dissipate this evening with the loss of daytime
heating/instability. Lows tonight in the 60`s under a mostly
clear to partly cloudy sky.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper trough lingers over the Northeast Saturday as an upper
ridge builds into the Deep South. Marginal instability expected
with dewpoints in the upper 60`s, but warm temperatures aloft
and limited moisture above 700mb will result in only a slight
chance PoP west of the Bay. Highs in the upper 70`s at the coast
to low/mid 80`s farther inland.

Hurricane Jose is expected to lift nwd well off the Southeast
coast Saturday night into Sunday as a mid-level ridge builds
across NY/New England during this time period. An anticyclonic
upper jet develops N of the tropical cyclone by Sunday, and the
RRQ of this feature could produce some bands of clouds along
with a chance of showers for coastal SE VA/NE NE well to the
NW of Jose. Lows Saturday night range through the 60s, followed
by highs Saturday in the low/mid 80s (upper 70s at the
immediate coast).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Long term period will feature temperatures averaging close to
normal. Conditions Mon night-Tue will depend on eventual track
of tropical cyclone Jose off the mid-Atlantic coast. Reluctant
to raise PoPs too high away from the coast given current model
consensus and TPC track of Jose. Highest PoPs (30-50%) will be
confined to ern 1/3rd of FA...15-20% PoPs to about the I 95
corridor. After that...dry wx expected Wed- Thu...as high
pressure builds down over the region and just offshore. By the
end of next weekend...continual onshore flow may result in
increased clouds and PoPs. Highs will mainly range fm the u70s-
m80s...w/ lows ranging through the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Patchy dense fog over portions of the Tidewater have reduced
flight conditions early this morning, but little impact at the
TAF sites. Expect conditions to improve quickly through 13Z,
with widespread VFR and dry conditions in store for the rest of
the morning. VFR conditions prevail today with isolated to
widely scattered sea/bay breeze convection this afternoon. Winds
generally at or below 10 knots.

Outlook: High pressure gradually builds over the area
Saturday/Sunday as Jose lifts north off the Southeast Coast,
which then continues to lift northward off the Mid-Atlantic
coast Monday/Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
No headlines today/tonight w/ weak sfc hi pres remaining over
the waters. Winds VRB/E becoming predominantly E tonight-Sat.
Tropical cyclone Jose slowly lifting NNW Sat-Sun resulting in
seas building back up to 4-6 ft in long period swells...then
potentially build much more significantly to 7-11 ft by Sun
night/Mon. Potentially higher seas (10-16ft) Mon night-Tue as
Jose tracks N off the Mid Atlc coast. NE winds will start to
increase Sun-Sun night...then stronger NE or N winds prevail
Mon/Tue. However...a lot of uncertainty in the track of Jose
remains (i.e., just how close it tracks to the E coast) and
this will have a significant effect on the winds. A track closer
to the coast would bring higher winds than currently projected
while the consensus track from TPC remain far enough offshore
that winds would generally peak in the strong SCA to possibly
low end Gale range. Please follow the latest forecast from the
National Hurricane Center for details.

Will have moderate risk for rip currents for all beaches
adjacent to coastal waters again Sat due to 11-14 sec periods
and ~3-4 ft nearshore waves. The risk is expected to become
high by the end of the weekend and remain high through the
middle of next week as seas and swell associated with Jose
increase.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A lot of uncertainty with the track of Jose, but expect tidal
departures to rise over the weekend into next week with long
period swell gradually leading to water piling up in the Bay and
tidal rivers. The potential exists for some significant tidal
flooding by Mon/Tue.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 11 AM Saturday to
     6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 4 PM Saturday to
     6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/SAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/SAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



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