Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280631
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
231 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DISSIPATE OVER THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT
SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...THEN STALLS ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SKC AND QUIET WX OVR THE FA SO FAR THIS EVE. WKNG CDFNT PUSHING
TWD THE FA FM THE NNW. SCT CONVECTION INVOF FNT CONTG TO WEAKEN AS
IT TRACKS TO THE SE. XPCG CLR-PC CONDS OVRNGT. DEWPTS HAVE
RECOVERED INTO THE M60S JUST ABT EVERYWHERE...NOT XPCG LO TEMPS
DOWN TO LAST NGTS/EARLY MRNGS LVLS. MOST LO TEMPS IN THE M/U60S.
WILL CONT MENTION OF PATCHY FG ACRS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SE VA/NE
NC (SIMILAR TO WHERE FG DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MRNG).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY...
BECOMING STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER THURSDAY EVENING
INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT WEAKENS THROUGH THE DAY AS WEAK MID-UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ALSO BEGINS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE REGION
DURING THE SAME TIMEFRAME (THU/FRI). SINCE THE UPPER RIDGE IS
RELATIVELY FLAT (ALMOST WESTERLY)...WEAK IMPULSES OF MOISTURE/ENERGY
COULD PASS THROUGH IT AND INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS EITHER TOO PROGRESSIVE OR TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
QPF GENERATION THU/FRI AFTNS. CONSIDERING THE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE OR LIFT IN THIS WX PATTERN...OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES
CONTINUE TO BE MINIMAL (NO HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT) AND LIMITED TO
AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64. MEANWHILE...A SFC HIGH
BUILDS ACROSS THE NE CONUS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THEN
SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEAK FRONT
LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THE
REGION WILL BECOME WARM- SECTORED. ISOLATED SHOWERS CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT OF THE FORECAST YET DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF
SHALLOW MOISTURE/LIFT PRESENT.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID-UPPER 80S...HOWEVER HIGHS IN THE NRN NECK AND MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE LOWER 80S ON FRI
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 INLAND/MID-UPPER 80S
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINS WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED
ALONG/OFF THE SE US COAST...GRADUALLY BREAKING DOWN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA AMPLIFIES AND
PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST AND NE STATES. VERY WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MON/LABOR DAY...WITH GENLY PARTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS. WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
SUN...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUDS ON MON (MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 80S) AS MOISTURE INCREASES AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WEAKENS INTO A SFC TROUGH. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LWR 70S. SOMEWHAT
HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AND WILL CARRY 40% POPS ALL
ZONES (MAINLY JUST 20% SUN AFTN/EVENING).

WILL FAVOR THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION FOR TUE/WED...WHICH IS A BIT
SLOWER TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE ALOFT...MAKING MUCH OF TUE MAINLY
DRY AND BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS. WILL HAVE
20-30% POPS BY LATE AFTN AND THEN HAVE 30% CHC POPS ALL AREAS TUE
EVENING INTO EARLY WED AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
GRADUAL DRYING FROM THE N WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW. HIGHS REMAIN FAIRLY WARM GENLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MIXING AND SPREAD BETWEEN THE
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO LIMIT FOG FORMATION. THE ONLY CONCERN
WITH THE 06Z TAF WAS AT ECG WHERE THE DEW POINT SPREAD WAS 2
DEGREES. WITH NO FOG DEVELOPING PRIOR TO TAF ISSUANCE AND A WESTERLY
BREEZE PRESENT...DECIDED TO KEEP VFR THERE AS WELL BUT WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS CAREFULLY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHIFTS THE
WINDS TO NORTHERLY. SOME INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS CAN BE EXPECTED BUT
NO SIGNIFICANT GUSTS ARE INDICATED. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHEAST OVER SE
PORTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A SLGT CHANCE FOR AFTN
TSTMS FOR SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY. CHANCES FOR AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE SLIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY THEN INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL EXIST WITHIN A FEW HOURS
OF SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN
AS TROPICAL SYSTEM CRISTOBAL MOVES NNE WELL OFF THE SE COAST. SWELL
PERIODS HAVE INCREASED THIS AFTN TO 13-15 SEC AND SHOULD CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO THU. N/NE WINDS AVG 5-10 KT MOST AREAS.

COMBO OF CRISTOBAL TRACKING NNE TONIGHT/THU AND A WEAK COLD FRONT
SLIPPING S ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS OVER THE WATERS ON THU...THOUGH
DO NOT EXPECT WINDS MUCH ABOVE 15 KT SO HAVE NOT RAISED AND SCA
HEADLINES OTHER THAN THOSE ON THE COASTAL WATERS. CONCERNING THE
COASTAL WATERS...HAVE MAINTAINED THE SCA AND SCHS ADVISORIES
THROUGH THU AFTN FOR SEAS BUILDING TO 7-8 FT OVERNIGHT...THEN
SUBSIDING SLOWLY DURING THE DAY THU. MAY NEED TO EXTEND NORTHERN
WATERS INTO TUE EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO DO THAT NOW.
A TRANSITION FROM ONSHORE WINDS TO MOSTLY S OCCURS THIS WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFF THE COAST.

RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WILL
LIKELY BEGIN HIGH ON THU...POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING TO MODERATE BY
AFTN DUE TO SUBSIDING SEAS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/BMD
NEAR TERM...ALB/BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB






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