Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020712
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
312 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY...THEN STALL OVER
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE FRONT GRADUALLY PUSHES
OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES REMNANT BNDRY ALIGNED FM NR THE MOUTH
OF THE CHES BAY ON WNW THROUGH CNTRL VA. LINGERING LO LVL MARITIME
AIR TO THE NE OF THE BNDRY HAS RESULTED IN DEVELOPMENT OF VERY LO
CIGS AND PATCHY FG...TO THE S AND W...VRB CIGS...WARMER AND MORE
HUMID. AN AREA OF SHRAS/TSTMS HAS SCOURED SOME OF THE LO LVL
CLDNS OUT ACRS PORTIONS OF CNTRL VA...NOT QUITE SURE THAT WILL
TAKE PLACE FARTHER E (DEEPER INTO THE MARITIME AIR ALL THE WAY TO
THE ERN SHORE).

HESISTANT TO QUICKLY ERODE MARITIME AIR OVR NE PORTIONS OF FA
TDA (ESP THIS MRNG/MIDDAY). OTRW...BECOMING WARMER/MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE W/ VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS. CDFNT FM THE WNW WILL BE
SLOLY APPROACHING THE FA THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE. THE COMBO OF THE
APPROACHING FNT/HEATING-MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS ACRS FA THIS AFTN. SPC HAS ALL BUT
SE VA/NE NC IN SLGT RISK SVR...WHICH WILL BE COVERED IN HWO. HI
TEMPS FM THE L-M70S ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE U70S-L80S ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CDFNT ENTERS THE FA EARLY TNGT...THEN STALLS. UPR LVL LO PRES
EXITING THE MS VLY RESULTS IN INCRSG MOISTURE INTO THE MDATLC
STATES BY LT THIS EVE. A SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF MOISTURE XPCD TO
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SLOWS ITS PROGRESSION DUE TO THE FNT
BECOMING NRLY PARALLEL TO THE SW FLO ALOFT. CDFNT RMNS SLO TO
PUSH TO THE CST THROUGH TUE EVENING. WILL HAVE A PROLONGED PD OF
LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS TNGT INTO TUE AFTN. MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN RATHER THAN WIND/HAIL. WILL INCLUDE A CHC
OF TSTMS MON NGT/TUE MRNG ALL AREAS...THEN ONLY ACRS FAR SRN/SE
VA AND NE NC TUE AFTN. LO TEMPS TNGT FM THE L60S NW TO THE M60S
SE. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE U60S-L70S N/CNTRL TO U70S S. DIMINISHING
CHCS FOR PCPN WED...THOUGH W/ UNCERTAINTY WILL MAINTAIN 20-40%
POPS ALG WITH PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS. HI TEMPS WED AGAIN FM
THE U60S-L70S N/CNTRL TO U70S S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SETTLES SOUTH
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LINGERS NEAR THE COAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MOST PERIODS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S EXCEPT RANGING
INTO THE UPR 70S ACROSS SRN VA AND NE NC ON SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER
READINGS ARE INDICATED NEAR THE COAST. LOWS RANGE FROM 50 TO 55
EXCEPT FOR SOME MID TO UPR 40S INLAND RURAL AREAS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BAND OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THRU KRIC
UNTIL 07Z...AND KSBY THRU 09Z. A WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF
KRIC/KSBY WILL KEEP IFR/LIFR CONDS IN PLACES THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS EXIST AT KPHF/KORF/KECG AS OF
06Z...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO IFR AROUND 09Z AND LAST THRU 15Z
BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING. EXPECT ALL TAF SITES TO BECOME VFR
THIS AFTN ALTHOUGH IT WILL TAKE THE LONGEST (21Z) AT KSBY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT BUT SPECIFICS ARE TO ILL-DEFINED ATTM TO INCLUDE IN 06Z
TAFS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL OCCUR LATE MON NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES.

CHC OF SHOWERS AND LOW CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST
FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA ALONG WITH VARIOUS
DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURES IS RESULTING IN VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL ZONES. THE WINDS WERE TRENDING TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION.
WINDS DIRECTIONS WILL VARY OVERNIGHT THEN BECOME S/SW ON MONDAY.

A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH
OF PARRAMORE ISLAND BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT. WAVEWATCH HAS SEAS
BUILDING IN THIS AREA BASED ON A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND FIELD BUT
WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINES INTACT.

A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS AROUND TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE
ARE NO SPECIFIC PROJECTIONS FOR HEADLINES BEYOND MONDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...LSA



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