Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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704 FXUS61 KAKQ 170253 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 953 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure remains over the local area through tonight. A warm front lifts north through the area Tuesday morning. Low pressure tracks east from the Great Lakes to New England Tuesday night through Wednesday. Its associated cold front pushes off the mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday afternoon, with high pressure building over the area on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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The current surface analysis depicts 1029mb high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic coastal plain, with low pressure to the W over the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Aloft, a strong upper low is cutoff across the central Plains, with a weak ridge axis in place from along the southeast US coast to the OH Valley. Mostly cloudy to overcast and cool across the local area with temperatures in the low/mid 40s this evening. For tonight, the upper Low over Missouri begins to weaken to an open wave/trough and will track northeast to near Lake Michigan by Tue morning. This will help lift a warm front N closer to the CWA overnight (from SC this evening to central and western NC by daybreak Tue). Not much forcing exists for measurable precipitation over the AKQ CWA, but as the front gets closer to the area, expect Cigs to lower overnight and have added drizzle to much of the forecast area after 06-09Z. Temperatures will fall only slightly from values this aftn, lows will avg in the lower 40s S and upper 30s/around 40 F N. RAP/HRRR have been consistent over the past few runs showing fog developing over central NC overnight in vicinity of the warm front and pushing into the local area after 10z as the boundary lifts nwd. Fog has been added W of the Bay mainly between 10-15z.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Strong sfc low pressure over the western Great Lakes will continue to track ENE on Tue...lifting a warm front N through the local area by aftn. Winds becoming S scour out the CAD during the morning or early aftn, but will have a period of likely POPS over the N and chc POPS farther S. Temps moderate but with all the clouds...highs likely do not get out of the 50s over the N, with some lower 60s possible over the S. Expect somewhat of a lull in precip by later aftn and early evening, then POPS ramp back up as a cold front approaches the region from the W Tue night. Strong shortwave passes by from 09-15Z/Wed. Best lift and moisture convergence looks to reside over the eastern shore Tue evening, then with a line of showers pushing S overnight into wed morning. Will carry 30-50% POPS well inland, with likely POPS/60% closer to the coast. Cold Front passes through Wed...and with deeper mixing and WNW flow in low levels...should see skies turn partly to mostly sunny along with a warm day with highs at least in the mid-upper 60s. Showers will be most likely across the E and SE where drier air is slower to arrive. Dry/mostly clear Wed night and Thu as sfc high pressure settles over the area. Lows Wed night in the mid 30s well inland to the lower 40s far SE. Highs in the 50s Thu. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A series of low pressure systems will lift northeast from the Southern Plains during the long term period. This pattern will keep temperatures above normal for the long term along with a few rounds of precipitation. The timing of the precipitation has been moved a little earlier than the previous forecast. The first system will move through in the form of an upper level short wave Friday with likely POPs except 50 percent POPs for the northeast North Carolina counties. The precipitation ends from southwest to northeast late Friday and Friday evening. The next system will be stronger with a cutoff upper over the Mississippi Valley and associated deep surface low and frontal boundaries extending across the Mid Atlantic States. There is a good chance for showers in the Mid Atlantic States by Sunday afternoon which continue into Monday. Kept POPs no higher than 40 to 50 percent due to a lack of confidence on days 6 and 7. Max temperatures in the 50s Friday through Sunday warm to the lower 60s west of the Bay Monday. Lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s Friday morning warm into the 40s Saturday through Monday mornings. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure will remain in vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic coast through late tonight, before gradually pushing offshore early Tuesday morning as low pressure tracks newd through the Ern Great Lakes by Tuesday aftn. As a result, a warm front will lift through the region late tonight into early Tuesday morning. Cigs will initially be 2-3kft, before falling to 1.0-1.5kft after 05z, and potentially IFR early Tuesday morning as the warm front moves through. There is also the potential for areas of -dz later tonight. The latest trends amongst the RAP/HRRR show fog developing over central NC between 06-09z and advecting to the NE into central/sern VA/interior NE NC between 10-16z and potentially impacting RIC/PHF/ORF and to a lesser extent ECG. Rain is expected to overspread central VA during the morning and moving to the Ern Shore by aftn, with the best chc of rain at RIC/SBY. The initial band of rain is expected to move offshore Tuesday evening, with the potential for rain moving into SE VA/NE NC Tuesday night into Wednesday morning ahead of an approaching cold front. Drier conditions arrive Wednesday aftn in the wake of the cold front followed by high pressure Thursday. Another low pressure system potentially impacts the region Friday, before dry conditions return Saturday. && .MARINE... Late this aftn, weak sfc high pressure was cntrd just off the Mid Atlc coast. The high will slide farther out to sea tngt into Tue morning, as a cold front pushes thru the MS valley into the TN valley. NE or E winds less than 10 kt will become SE or S. A warm front will lift north through the area Tue, as the cold front moves thru the mtns. S winds will increase to 10 to 15 kt over most of the waters by Tue evening, then SW 10 to 20 kt Tue night becoming W 10 to 15 kt Wed morning, as the front pushes acrs the area and offshr. High pressure will build into and over the waters for Wed aftn thru Thu. Another warm front will lift NNE and acrs the waters Fri into Fri night. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...LSA AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...TMG

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