Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 072001 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 401 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST...STALLING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOT AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH AND DISSIPATES ACROSS THE AREA.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATING AN STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND THE WRN GREAT LAKES WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF THE MID/ATLC AND SE COAST. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED E OF HUDSON BAY...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW ALL THE WAY INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 F. ALL OF THE RECENT RAIN LIKELY ENHANCING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH AFTN DEW PTS FAILING TO DROP MUCH...RANGING FROM 70-75 F ACRS MOST LOCATIONS. NOT EXCESSIVE...BUT HEAT INDICES ARE RUNNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THE MOST PART. FINALLY HAVING A MAINLY DRY DAY ACRS THE REGION...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20% CHC FOR TSTMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SE VA AND NE NC THROUGH 01Z WHERE ML CAPES AVG ~2000 J/KG PER LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS. W/ LOSS OF HEATING BY SUNSET...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MAINLY CLEAR ALL ZONES W/ NO ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. WARM/HUMID OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WED/THU WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING WEST TO BECOME CENTERED ACRS THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE SE ATLC COAST. FAST MOVING WSW FLOW ALOFT WED INTO THU WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WNW BY FRI. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO TRACK FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO THE NJ COAST WED...BRINGING MORE SIGNIFICANT FORCING TO THE LOCAL AREA WED AFTN. 12Z NAM APPEARS TOO WET ACRS NC...GIVEN THE PATTERN BUT WILL HAVE AT LEAST 30% POPS FOR ALL ZONES BY LATE AFTN/AFTER 20Z (HIGHEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH). STILL LOOKS LIKE SHEAR IS TOO WEAK FOR MUCH SVR THREAT BUT GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ONCE AGAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS INTO THE LWR-MID 90S S TO THE UPPER 80S N (WHERE CLOUDS/PRECIP ARRIVE EARLIER). MODELS SHOW SOME CONTINUED SHRTWV ENERGY OVRNGT WED NGT ACRS THE NE ZONES...AND WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS (30%) THERE INTO THE EARLY MORNG HRS OF THU. LOWS 70-75 F. PROBALY A LITTLE HOTTER ON THU WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S MOST AREAS AS DEEPER WSW FLOW DEVLOPS. SLGT CHC OF LATE AFTN/EVENG TSTMS ACRS THE REGION...BUT MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE DEEP W FLOW MAY DRY CONDS OUT/LIMIT POPS. SLIGHTLY COOLER FRI AS FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE AREA...HIGHS MID 80S N TO LWR 90S SW.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SERN U.S. RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WEST NEXT WEEKEND...ENDING UP OVER WEST TX/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY BEFORE EXPANDING/BUILDING NORTH OVER THE ROCKY MTNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NW FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS WEEKEND...THEN MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ORIGINATING IN THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE LOCAL AREA THIS WEEKEND...BUT TIMING THESE FEATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT. WENT WITH GENERALLY CLIMO POPS SAT/SUN (20-30%)...THEN INCREASED THEM A LITTLE BIT NEXT MON/TUE WITH THE STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...AND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S TO LOW 90S.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND LIMITED MOISTURE LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. SOME AFTERNOON CU HAS POPPED IN THE HEATING OF THE DAY ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. EXPECT LITTLE CONVECTION DUE TO THE DRY AIR ALOFT. AS THE SFC HIGH WEAKENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WILL SEE THE SW FLOW CONTINUE AT AROUND 5 - 10 KTS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW ON WED...KEEPING THE SW FLOW IN PLACE. THROUGH 18Z...EXPECT JUST SOME CU TO DEVELOP. SO VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST. OUTLOOK 18Z WED - SUN...THE FRONT APPROACHES WED AFTERNOON SO EXPECT SOME CONVECTION WITH RESTRICTIONS OF VIS AND CEILINGS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH ON THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT SLIDES ACROSS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH CHANCES FOR MORE CONVECTION. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC. && .MARINE...
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TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE A WEAK SFC TROUGH SHARPENS INLAND. SW FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT. WINDS TURN NW AT SIMILAR SPEEDS FRIDAY...THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2-4 FT/CHES BAY 1-3 FT.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...ESS/MAM MARINE...JDM/MAM

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