Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 262001 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 401 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure slides off the Northeast coast tonight. Low pressure affects the region Friday through Friday night, with a cold front pushing across the region Friday night. High pressure builds into the region through early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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A shortwave depicted on water vapor and RAP analysis continues to produce isolated to widely scattered showers from the Northern Neck to the Maryland Eastern Shore this afternoon. Expect this activity to diminish by 5-6 pm as the shortwave slides offshore and low level instability wanes. Otherwise, high pressure located along the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts resulted in onshore flow and more comfortable conditions today. Temperatures have generally warmed into the mid 80`s today, with locales along the immediate coast only in the upper 70`s. Subtle energy in the northwest flow aloft has resulted in afternoon fair weather cu, but dry conditions persist. High pressure slides offshore tonight, resulting in return/southerly flow and warm dewpoints. Moisture return and modest isentropic upglide over the Piedmont could resulted in an isolated shower late tonight, but best coverage expected to remain west of the local area. An isolated shower is also possible over the Maryland Eastern Shore late tonight as another upstream shortwave approaches from the northwest. Sky averages mostly clear to partly cloudy, with some patchy stratus/ground fog possible late. Still mild and generally comfortable, with lows in the upper 60`s to around 70.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Increasing confidence for widespread beneficial rainfall through the short term, especially Thursday night through Friday night. Initial shortwave drops over the Ohio Valley Thursday and into the Mid-Atlantic region late Thursday into Thursday evening in west to northwest flow aloft. Pressure falls ahead of a frontal boundary over the Ohio Valley will induce a lee/thermal boundary over the Piedmont Thursday afternoon. Modest mid-level lapse rates and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60`s result in only marginal instability, with mixed layer CAPE values progged around 500-1000 J/kg. Moisture returns in earnest, with guidance indicating precipitable water values increasing to around 2 inches by Thursday afternoon. The result will be isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the Piedmont. Highs Thursday generally in the mid to upper 80`s. Attention turns upstream late Thursday for convection developing over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Guidance indicates this activity should organize ahead of the boundary and cross the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic region Thursday evening. Energy in the northwest flow aloft in tandem with increasing moisture and elevated instability (negative showalter values along with an elevated mixed layer) will aid the showers/thunderstorms dropping over the higher elevation into the local area Thursday evening through Thursday night. Strong winds are possible along the leading edge of the convection due to deep layer shear around 25-30 knots. SPC has downgraded the slight risk to a marginal risk. There still remains some uncertainty in the guidance, especially in the placement of the upstream low pressure system, so will continue to monitor future model trends for severe weather risk Thursday evening. Mild, with lows in the 70`s under a mostly cloudy to cloudy sky. Potent shortwave/compact upper low digs over the Ohio Valley into the northern Mid-Atlantic region Friday into Friday night, and then drops over the region Saturday before pushing offshore Saturday night. At the surface, low pressure lifts over the Kentucky Valley into the northern Mid-Atlantic region Friday. Height falls will result in modest deepening of the surface low over the northern Mid-Atlantic region Friday night, before the low pushes offshore Saturday. A trailing cold front pushes across the region Saturday night. There remains a great deal of uncertainty with the overall evolution of convection Friday, not only due to model uncertainty but due to the potential of convection Thursday evening. A fair amount of clouds are expected Friday, which along with modest mid-level lapse rates will limit overall instability. If any dry air wraps into the system Friday morning, we could see better instability. However, given the warm/moist air mass and strong dynamics, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon and evening. POPs ramp up to categorical late Friday into Friday night inland with the arrival of the strongest height falls. Increasing mid-level flow will result in deep layer shear around 30 knots, which will result in better organization and stronger storms. Gusty winds and heavy rainfall remain the main threat. SPC maintains a slight chance of severe weather across the region. There is also a slight risk for excessive rainfall across the northeast local area Friday, near the strongest onshore 850mb anomalies. Highs Friday generally in the low to mid 80`s. Front pushes south of the region Saturday as the surface low lifts along the Northeast coast. Strong height falls over the region in tandem with 1000-500mb relative humidity values around 80-90 percent will result in afternoon showers. Instability wanes behind the front, but perhaps a few rumbles of thunder are possible near the coast. Cooler, with a north wind of 10-15 mph (gusts 25 mph Eastern Shore). Highs generally in the low to mid 80`s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Low pressure pushes farther NE and away from the area Saturday night with the trailing front stalling ivof the Gulf Stream early next week. Lingering moisture keeps chc pops going along the coast Sat eve. Otw, pt cldy with lows from near 60 NW to around 70 SE as high pressure approaches the mts. Models have a shortwave riding ENE along the boundary, but the latest data suggests the high pressure over the mountains suppresses the bulk of the moisture SE of the AKQ fa. This low is progged to deepen out over the Gulf Stream by Tue, which will bear watching this time of the year. Kept the forecast dry through the period except for some slght chc pops ivof the Albemarle Sound Mon night and Tue where a limited amount of moisture spreads north. Temps below normal to start with readings returning to near normal by mid week. Highs 80-85 Sun, low-mid 80s Mon, mid-upr 80s Tue and upr 80s-lwr 90s Wed. Lows in the 60s Mon/Tue, mid 60s-lwr 70s Wed.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions through the 18z TAF period with areas of cu sct- bkn035 will persist through the afternoon giving way to more sct040 to sct070 this evening. Flow remaivs E to SE across the region and conditions VFR overnight into Thursday. Primarily VFR conditions expected through Thursday. A cold front approaches the area late Thursday into Friday bringing the threat for periodic flight restrictions in showers and thunderstorms Thursday night and Fri. Showers and thunderstorms may linger into Saturday, but drier conditions arrive for the second half of the weekend. && .MARINE...
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No headlines in the short term as the E-SE onshore flow remains aob 15 kts. Seas briefly hit 4 ft across srn beaches today but since have backed off and are now avgg 2-3 ft. Return S-SW flow sets up Thu into Fri ahead of an apporaching cold front. Guidance continues to show winds aob 15 KTS through the period. Seas avgg 2-3 ft. A fairly strong cold front (by mid summer standards) crosses the area early Sat switching the winds to the NW then N. Rather decent surge noted behind this feature for winds to be forecasted in the SCA range attm (although it is to early for any headlines). To complicate matters even further, low pressure is forecasted to deepen a bit as it moves off the coast later Sat. 925MB winds suggest a few gusts to around 30 KTS possible across the northern coastal waters late Sat. Seas will build to at least 5 ft, and will likely depend on the exact track/strength of the low as to how much NE swell develops behind it. Have capped seas at 6 ft for now. Could be looking at some beach hazards this weekend given this scenario. Winds subside Sun but remain onshore through Mon.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM/SAM NEAR TERM...SAM SHORT TERM...SAM LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...MAM/JAO MARINE...MPR

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