Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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551 FXUS61 KAKQ 261837 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 237 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A couple of upper level troughs will be crossing the region this weekend...resulting in a chance for showers and thunderstorms. A cold front from the west will cross the local area Memorial Day. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Sfc hi pres will remain invof SE CONUS through tonight. Remaining breezy through early this evening (gusts to 20-30 mph) then winds wane overnight. SCT-BKN CU across the FA this afternoon expected to dissipate this evening...leaving mainly SKC for the rest of the night. Lows in the m50s-around 60F inland to the l60s near the coast in VA/NE NC. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Weak ridge aloft nudges into the region from the WSW through Sat morning. Models in decent consensus w/ the arrival of weak S/W tracking into the FA by Sat afternoon/evening. Combination of daytime heating and that S/W in WNW flow aloft will likely result in at least SCT convective development. Will have PoPs increasing to 30-50% over most of the FA (by after 20Z/27). SPC has outlooked wrn/central areas of FA in a SLGT risk...w/ remaining areas in a marginal risk. Forecast soundings do show ML cape values of 1000-1500 J/KG, w/ 30-40 kt of effective shear and steep low-level lapse rates. Main threats will be large hail and localized damaging winds. Partly-mostly sunny Sat morning...then becoming mostly cloudy in the afternoon. Highs from the m-u70s-around 80F on the eastern shore to the m-u80s inland. Nearly zonal flow aloft remains Sat night into Sun. A weak sfc boundary settles just S of the area (by Sun morning). Another S/W aloft expected to arrive late Sun...which again combined w/ daytime heating likely results in (at least) SCT convective development. Not as warm Sun due to VRB clouds-becoming mostly cloudy conditions. Lows Sat night mainly ranging through the 60s. Highs Sun in the u60s-m70s at the coast to the m-u70s inland. Will continue to highlight possible strong to severe tstms in HWO for the weekend. A break in the chances for SHRAs/tstms after Sun evening...into Mon morning. A cold front will be crossing the mountains Mon morning...then continue to the E Mon afternoon. Expecting additional SHRAs/tstms to accompany that frontal passage...mainly Mon afternoon/evening. Otherwise...partly- mostly cloudy Sun night-Mon. Lows Sun night in the 60s. Highs Mon mainly in the l-m80s (except 70s at the beaches).
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The somewhat unsettled weather will continue into Monday with the baroclinic zone nearby and a strong upper jet just north of the area. Expect additional showers and thunderstorms once again on Monday in the cyclonic flow. It will be a warm day with highs in the mid-upper 80s. The front will stall out over North Carolina on Tuesday and may allow for additional showers and storms Tuesday across NE NC and south VA. High pressure builds across the region for Tue Night-Thursday with dry and seasonable conditions expected. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the 18Z TAF period. Gusty W winds to 20-25 kt will diminish this evening. Sct showers and storms return for Saturday afternoon into early next week as the pattern remains somewhat unsettled. && .MARINE... Low pressure off the NJ coast will continue to move NE and away from the area today. Meanwhile, another trof will rotate around this low. Models continue to show a decent pressure gradient behind the departing low through mid afternoon with diminishing winds by evening. Thus, SCA headlines remain in place today for WSW winds 15-25 kts and 4-5 ft seas. High pressure to the south builds into the region tonight and Sat resulting in winds aob 15 kts, seas 2-3 ft. Flow becomes onshore once again Sat night and Sun as a frontal system stalls across the region. Expect winds aob 15 kts, seas 3-4 ft. Sct aftrn / evening tstrms will pose a threat to mariners this weekend as weak low pressure tracks along the frontal boundary. The start of the 2017 rip current season features a moderate threat of rips along the lower Delmarva beaches with a low risk over VA Beach and the northern Outer Banks. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Previous onshore flow combined with high astro tides will continue the elevated water levels through the weekend. Coastal flood warning expired but Cambridge very slow to drop below minor flooding levels so issued an advisory through 12Z. Otw, all statements / advisories have expired. This afternoons high tide cycle is forecasted to be low enough at most sites to remain below action stage. However, tonights high tide cycle may required another round of statements or advisories as levels will likely exceed action stage and approach minor flooding thresholds once again. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ650- 652-654. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...ALB/JDM MARINE...MPR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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