Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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744 FXUS61 KAKQ 241809 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA 109 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front approaches from the west today into tonight as low pressure persists off the southeast coast. The front crosses the local area late Saturday, with high pressure returning for Sunday and Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Latest sfc analysis shows a complex area of low pres over the Mid-MS Valley, high pres well offshore, and another low pres systm just east of FL. Patchy fog is psbl this morng especially over the southern half of the fa with lack of cloudiness and dewpoints in the 50s, but not expected to be that widespread as winds remain up to ~5 kt in many spots. Include some sct sprinkles over far SE areas as well this morng where the best moisture will be alongside some weak mid-level energy. Otws...a dry day is on tap with a partly/mostly sunny sky. With southerly low-level flow continuing, temps will be well above normal as they were yesterday. See climate section below for the day`s records. Records less likely to be broken today. Currently forecasting highs in the mid to upr 70s most spots, lwr 70s near the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Continued warm and partly cloudy tngt with low temps mainly in the mid 50s to possibly around 60 F in the warmest locales. Latest models remain in good agreement handling a cold front moving east from the OH Valley tngt, reaching the Appalachians Sat morning, and pushing through the CWA Sat aftn to early evening. Mid/upper level trough progged to be located over the western Great lakes at 12Z/Sat...and moving NE to Ontario through the day. Potent mid level shortwave looks to become somewhat sheared out as it crosses the Mtns and moves through the local area Sat aftn/evening, with some dry slotting moving in rather quickly late Sat aftn/Sat evening from the SW. SPC day 2 outlook highlights VA and MD in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms in association with a low CAPE/high shear environment. Main threat would be damaging wind gusts, but attm there is uncertainty over coverage of convection due to the potential dry slot. High temps Sat will range from the upper 70s southeast to the lower 70s N and NW where precip will arrive earlier and be of higher coverage. Lingered a chc for showers into the early evening near the cost, otherwise turning sharply colder Sat night with lows in the 30s inland to lower 40s southeast zones. Dry/mostly sunny and much cooler Sunday with breezy WNW winds diminishing by mid aftn from SW to NE as high pressure builds in from the WSW. Highs will actually be close to normal for a change, ranging from the upper 50s south to the low/mid 50s across the NE. Very dry aftn with dew pts into the teens and RH values mainly 20-25%, though winds may diminish enough to keep Fire Wx threat from being a concern. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Sfc hi pres drifts over the FA Sun night...resulting in mainly SKC and chilly conditions. Quick moving low pressure tracks from the OH Valley Mon across the FA Mon night w/ increasing cloudiness and PoPs (30-50%). Another warm up begins Tue and continues through Wed as sfc hi pres sets up off the coast...and return S flow develops. Mild Tue w/ a frontal boundary lingering over (srn) portions of the FA (keeping VRB clouds/Mostly cloudy conditions w/ PoPs 25-45%. A warm front lifting through the FA Tue night/early Wed may clip the region w/ clouds and low PoPs (10-20%). Warm/possibly breezy Wed ahead of approaching cold front from the W. Models push that front through the region late Wed/Wed night w/ another potential for at least SCT RASH. Drying/cooler by Thu. Lows Sun night from the l30s inland to the u30s-around 40F SE. Highs Mon in the 55-60F on the eastern shore to the l-m60s elsewhere. Lows Mon night in the m40s NW to the l50s SE. Highs Tue in the u50s-l60s on the eastern shore to the u60s-l70s elsewhere. Low Tue night mainly in the l-m50s. Highs Wed in the 60s on the eastern shore to the 70s elsewhere. Highs Thu mainly from 55-60F. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Mainly VFR conditions are expected to continue this afternoon and through the first half of the night for all TAF sites. Surface high pressure is in control allowing for continued dry conditions across the region. Scattered cumulus have developed once again this afternoon with the heating of the day, bases are generally around 3000 to 4000 feet. Any cumulus will begin dissipate around sunset leading to mainly clear skies for the first half of tonight. Winds will remain light this afternoon, 5-10 knots, out of the S/SE. Patchy fog and low stratus will be possible Saturday morning, mainly after 08Z. Confidence is still low on fog coverage, so left VFR visibilities at all TAF sites besides PHF. Added MVFR ceilings at all TAF sites tomorrow morning to account for the possibility of low stratus. Model guidance has even hinted at the potential for IFR ceilings tomorrow morning. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop with a cold front Saturday afternoon into early evening. Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions return for Sunday as surface high pressure builds into the region. Winds will be gusty out of the WNW at times on Sunday, especially near the coast. Sub-VFR conditions will once again be possible late Monday and into Tuesday as a low pressure system approaches from the west.
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&& .MARINE... High pressure will remain centered well off the Mid-Atlantic coast today as low pressure meanders off the FL coast, and nrn stream energy remains well north of the region from the Great Lakes through the Saint Lawrence Valley. High pressure will slide farther offshore tonight into Saturday as a cold front pushes from the Ohio Valley Friday night and ewd across the mountains Saturday. Meanwhile, the srn stream low will gradually lift newd well off the Southeast coast. A SSE wind will remain aob 15kt through tonight, and may increase a few kt Saturday due to a tightening pressure gradient, but should still remain sub- SCA, although locally stronger gusts are possible with tstms Saturday aftn/early evening. Seas will generally be 2-4ft today, before increasing to 3-5ft tonight into Saturday as long period swell arrives from the low offshore. SCA flags are in effect beginning this evening for the ocean. Waves in the Bay will average 1-2ft. The cold front will cross the coast Saturday night followed by modest CAA and strong pressure rises. SCAs are likely Saturday night into Sunday morning with a NW wind averaging 15-25kt with gusts to 30kt and 4-6ft seas/3-4ft waves. The wind diminishes Sunday afternoon as high pressure builds into the region. High pressure quickly pushes offshore Sunday night into Monday with the wind becoming S. && .CLIMATE... Feb 2017 is shaping up to rank among the warmest on record given continued warmth over the next week. Daily record highs are listed below for today and Sat, with the top 3 warmest February`s on record listed below that. Expecting RIC, ORF to be the 2nd warmest and ECG to be at least into the top 3 warmest. SBY looks on track to be 4th or 5th warmest. Daily Record Highs for Today 2/24 and Saturday 2/25: 2/24 2/25 RIC 82 in 1985 83 in 1930 ORF 82 in 2012 81 in 1930 SBY 77 in 2012 80 in 1930 ECG 79 in 1985 77 in 1985 Warmest February`s on record (average temps): * RIC: (most likely finish for 2017: 2nd warmest) * 1) 49.9 (1890) * 2) 48.5 (1976) * 3) 48.1 (1884) * ORF: (most likely finish for 2017: 2nd warmest) * 1) 52.4 (1890) * 2) 50.5 (1909) * 3) 50.1 (1990) * SBY: (most likely finish for 2017: 4th warmest) * 1) 46.1 (1976) * 2) 45.8 (1984) * 3) 45.7 (1925) * ECG: (most likely finish for 2017: 3rd warmest) * 1) 52.1 (1990) * 2) 51.8 (1939) * 3) 50.3 (1976) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon EST Sunday for ANZ650-652-654-656. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Sunday for ANZ658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS/WRS SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...AJB MARINE...AJZ CLIMATE...

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