Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 291050 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 650 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH ALOFT INVOF ERN CONUS HAS DRIVEN CDFNT S TO THE GULF CST THE PAST 24 HRS. MNLY SCT-BKN MID LVL CLDNS OVR PORTIONS OF THE FA...ESP SRN VA/NE NC ATTM. AIR COMFY W/ LO DEWPTS (MNLY FM THE M50S TO L60S). XPCG A SUNNY TO PCLDY DAY...THOUGH NOT RULING OUT AN ISOLD SHRA/TSTM INVOF CSTL NE NC (IN AN AREA OF SLGTLY ENHANCED LO LVL CONVERGENCE). HI TEMPS AVGG 5 TO 10 DEGS F BLO NORMAL...RANGING FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST...TO THE L80S INLAND.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... TROUGH ALOFT LINGERS OVR ERN CONUS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER COMFY/MSTLY SKC NGT TNGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE M50S TO L60S MOST PLACES. P/MSNY AGN ON WED WITH HI IN THE L/M80S. MOSTLY CLEAR WED NGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE U50S TO M60S. WK SFC HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH SSE LO LVL FLO ACRS THE AREA. ONLY A VERY SLGT INCRS IN HUMIDITY IS XPCD (ON THU)...OTRW P/MSNY W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S (MAYBE A FEW U80S INLAND). && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... EXTENDED PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS DRY THU NGT. ON FRIDAY...MDLS BEGINNING TO BRING INCRSG MOISTURE INTO THE RGN FM THE SSW. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP AN AVG OF 10% (HIGHEST INLAND) FOR FRI...RESULTING IN PSBL ISOLD/SCT PCPN (MNLY AWAY FM THE CST) ALG W/ VRB CLDS/MCLDY CONDS. SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE MIDDLE MS VLY AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME. FOR TEMPS...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR AND DRY THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. COLD FRNT IS NOW WELL OFFSHORE WITH SFC HI PRES BLDG IN FM THE NW. THIS WILL LEAD TO MAINLY SKC WITH SOME SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PSBL AT TIMES OVR ALL TAF SITES. WINDS AVG OUT OF THE N AT 5-10 KT. OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. && .MARINE... COLD FRNT IS PUSHING FARTHER OFFSHORE ERLY THIS MORNG. SCA FOR THE BAY/LWR JAMES WILL END AT 4 AM AS WINDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING WITH WEAKENING CAA BEHIND THE FRNT. WITH HI PRES BLDG IN FM THE W AND WINDS 5-10 KT...SOME SEA BREEZE EFFECTS ARE PSBL TDA. EXPECT 1-2 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10 KT INTO WED WITH SFC HI PRES STILL IN THE VICINITY. WINDS BCM SLY BY THU AS THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE AND LO PRES PASSES WELL N OF THE LOCAL AREA. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE WEEKEND...WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE WATERS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG LONG TERM...ALB/MAM AVIATION...MAS MARINE...MAS

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