Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 301737 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 137 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... PCPN WAS MOVNG OFF THE CST EARLY THIS MORNG...AND A TROF OF LO PRES WILL FOLLOW OUT TO SEA DURING THIS MORNG. BUT...WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND STRATUS ACRS MUCH OF THE REGION THRU 8 OR 9 AM...DUE TO MOIST GROUND AND VRY LGT OR NO WIND. THE REST OF TODAY...FCST AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING TROF SFC-ALOFT OFFSHR...AND A STRONGER UPR LVL TROF PUSHING SE FM THE GRT LKS. SKY SHOULD BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY SNY FOR LATER THIS MORNG THRU THIS AFTN WITH LGT NE OR E WINDS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 75 TO 80. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPR LVL LO PRES WILL SWING ACRS SRN ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST TNGT INTO WED NGT...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED TROF SFC-ALOFT THRU THE FCST AREA WITH BKN CLOUDINESS AND MAINLY SLGT CHC POPS (MAINLY NNE PORTIONS). OTHERWISE...VARIABLE CLOUDS TO PRTLY CLOUDY. LO TEMPS TNGT WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO THE LWR 60S. HI TEMPS ON WED WILL RANGE FM THE LWR TO MID 70S ON THE ERN SHR...TO THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S ELSEWHERE. HI PRES FM NEW ENGLAND BLDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION LATER WED NGT THRU THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF ENE WINDS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT INLAND LOCATIONS HAVE A LO PROBABILITY FOR ISLTD SHOWERS (THU MORNG) ALONG WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS. MAINLY PRTLY CLOUDY TWD THE CST. LO TEMPS WED NGT WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO THE LWR 60S. HI TEMPS ON THU WILL RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO ARND 80. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A CONTINUATION OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM. FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE 50 PERCENT CHC FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING WESTERN PORTIONS FRIDAY EVENING AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. WENT NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT BUT AS CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENT INCREASES...FUTURE ISSUANCES WILL PROBABLY HAVE LIKELY POPS. CURRENTLY WPC HAS ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH QPF WITH THE MAIN PART OF THE PCPN PROBABLY LASTING ABOUT SIX HOURS AT ANY LOCATION. FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 INLAND AND MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY EXCEPT ON SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... RATHER STRONG INVERSION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTRN IS KEEPING THE SC DECK (ARND 2K FT) IN TACT WHILE ONLY SCT SC NOTED ALONG THE COAST. SUN IS SLOWLY ERODING THE EDGES OF THE SC DECK BUT IT MAY TAKE A FEW MORE HRS FOR IT TO SCT OUT AT RIC. OTW...COMBO OF THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND ABUNDANT LL MSTR WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANTHR NITE FOR STRATUS / FOG TO DVLP. APPEARS PIEDMONT AND INLAND SCTNS OF THE LWR MD ERN SHORE AS MODELS POINT TO SOME IFR FOG LATE NITE / WED MORN THERE. ADDED A PRD OF ST / BR TO RIC / SBY AS MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTANT THIS WILL OCCUR. ONLY MVFR BR ADDED TO SERN TAF SITES AS CONFIDENCE THERE NOT AS HIGH. ST / FOG SLOWLY BURN OFF BY 15Z WED AHEAD OF APPRCHG CD FRNT PROGGED FOR LATER IN THE DAY. OUTLOOK...DRY WX IS XPCTD THRU FRI BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING. && .MARINE... LATEST OBS REFLECT LGT N-NW WINDS AOB 10KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING. WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. N-NE WINDS 5-10 KT TODAY WILL INCREASE TO 10-15KT TONIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-4 FT LATE TONIGHT/ERY WED, HIGHEST OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. NE WINDS REMAIN SUB-SCA WED/THU, THOUGH NWPS/WAVEWATCH BOTH INCREASE SEAS INTO SCA RANGE THURSDAY/FRIDAY. HV HELD OFF WITH SCA FLAGS FOR THE MOMENT WITH CONDITIONS STILL APPEARING MARGINAL ATTM. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE S-SW FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT, WHICH CROSSES INTO THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY, WITH WINDS QUICKLY SWINGING AROUND TO THE NW POST-FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG LONG TERM...LSA AVIATION...MPR MARINE...MAM

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