Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 011611 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1211 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND DROPS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS EARLIER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING WELL OFF TO THE NE OF THE LOCAL AREA AS OF 16Z...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CU DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR. THERE IS SOME HAZE PERSISTING OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE FA HOWEVER. WHILE WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THE AFTN AND WILL KEEP THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FAIRLY STABLE...THERE IS THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH TO THE LEE OF THE MTNS. THUS...WILL CARRY 20% POPS LATE (AFTER 20Z) OVER THE PIEDMONT...KEEPING A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE THROUGH 22Z. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 16-17C SHOULD SUPPORT SEASONABLY WARM HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 F (WITH A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY HOTTEST SPOTS POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 90S). WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS BRINGING A MODEST REPRIEVE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS (DEW PTS INTO THE LWR- MID 60S). && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERALL...THE 00Z/01 NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO SHOWERS/TSTMS ACCOMPANYING THE BOUNDARY...WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE EITHER DRY OR INDICATE ONLY ISO ACTIVITY. THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING WILL REMAIN WELL W OF THE REGION...SO WILL ONLY FORECAST A 20% POP WITH THE BOUNDARY. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN NC AS ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE LOCATES OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. 20-30% POPS THURSDAY MORNING INCREASE TO 40-50% POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/ EVENING OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC...THEN TO ~60% OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT IN DEEP LAYER SW FLOW. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN CONCERT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-MS VALLEY LOW APPROACHES FROM THE W. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIKELY POPS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL (UP TO 600% OF NORMAL THIS PAST WEEK)...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND CONTINUES TO BE HEADLINED IN THE HWO. 72 HR RAINFALL TOTALS AVERAGE BETWEEN 1.0-1.5 IN...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED. FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AREA GENERALLY ON THE LOW-SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS THURSDAY RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S NW...TO THE UPPER 80S SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S NW...TO THE MID 80S FAR SE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE HOLIDAY WKEND / MED RANGE PERIOD. MODELS STALL WAVY FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC REGION SAT. GFS WANTS TO PUSH THIS BNDRY INTO NORTH CAROLINA SUN AS WEAK HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WHILE ECMWF KEEPS THE BNDRY NEARLY STNRY ACROSS THE RGN. THE BNDRY PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRNT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE DISTURBANCE RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT. HIGHS SAT / SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON / TUE. LOWS U60S-M70S. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MAINLY VFR THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. S/SW FLOW ~10 KT CONTINUES TDA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. EXPECT MAINLY HI CLOUDS...WITH SHRAS/TSTMS PSBL THIS AFTN/EVENG THOUGH CHANCES ARE NOT HI ENUF TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM. OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTM WILL DROP INTO THE AREA THU AND LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE CONVECTION. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES THU NIGHT AND FRI. && .MARINE... SCA OVER THE BAY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU 7 AM AS WINDS THERE CONTINUE TO GUST TO ~20-25 KT ERLY THIS MORNG. WINDS WILL THEN RELAX THRU THE DAY AS A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE NW. EXPECT 10-15 KT S WINDS THIS AFTN WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND 2-4 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS. THE FRNT DROPS INTO THE AREA FM THE NW ON THU...WITH WINDS BCMG LIGHT AND VRB AS THE FRNT STALLS AND REMAINS IN THE VICINITY THRU FRI. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS AVG 2-4 FT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SUB-SCA CONDS CONTINUING. && .CLIMATE... AT NORFOLK: *AVG TEMPERATURE OF 78.7 F RANKS AS THE 7TH WARMEST ON RECORD. *TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF 8.34" RANKS AS 5TH WETTEST ON RECORD. AT RICHMOND: *AVG TEMPERATURE OF 77.92 F RANKS AS THE 8TH WARMEST ON RECORD. PRECIPITATION TOTAL OF 6.05" DID NOT ATTAIN A TOP 10 RANKING AT RIC AIRPORT...BUT MANY LOCATIONS IN THE METRO AREA...RECEIVED IN EXCESS OF 10.00 INCHES FOR THE MONTH. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/SAM NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...MAS MARINE...MAS CLIMATE...LKB

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