Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KAKQ 180608
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
108 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017
A cold front approaches from the northwest later tonight, and pushes
off the Mid Atlantic coast Wednesday morning. High pressure
then builds in from the west by Wednesday night and settles over
the area on Thursday. The high slides off the coast Thursday
night as another front moves in by Friday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Latest analysis shows ~1009 mb sfc low pressure near Lake
Ontario, with strong high pressure centered over eastern
Canada, ridging S into Maine. A sfc warm front is rather
diffuse but is located over nrn VA NE MD and will continue to
lift through the region overnight. Radar showing scattered
showers over far SE VA/NE NC with rainfall amounts rather light.
SSW flow has allowed temperatures to remain mild through the
evening with readings averaging in the mid/upper 50s, with some
low 50s lingering over far NE portions. The best lift and
moisture convergence ahead of the approaching shortwave trough
and cold front looks to reside over far SE VA/NE NC overnight
where likely PoPs remain, with 20-30% elsewhere. The cold front
passes through around daybreak Wed...and with deeper mixing and
WNW flow in low levels...should see skies turn partly to mostly
sunny along with a warm day with highs at least in the lower
60s. However, over the east and NE, with a strong shortwave
aloft tracking through ern/SE VA from 12-18Z, expect some
redeveloping clouds from 15-21Z and will maintain at least
20-30% POPS (30-50% early on over far se VA and ne NC). Temps
may fall a few degrees in the aftn over the N.
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Dry/mostly clear Wed night and Thu as sfc high pressure settles
over the area. Lows Wed night in the mid/upr 30s inland to the
lwr 40s far SE. Highs in the 50s Thu. Next system approaches
from the W/SW Thu night/Fri, the latest ECMWF being a little
slower/weaker than the GFS. Still looks like enough of a good
overrunning scenario to maintain likely POPS all areas for Fri.
Undercut MOS by a few degrees with highs to avg in the upper 40s
NW to lower-mid 50s SE.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Above normal temps will continue to dominate the extended period
acrs the area. A warm front and associated low pressure will
lift NE or E of the area Fri night, with weak high pressure
building over the region for Sat into Sat evening. Showers will
be exiting NE or E of the CWA Fri night, with dry wx for Sat.
Sun into early Tue, strong upper low pressure will lift fm the
srn Plains/lower MS valley northeast into ern OH/wrn PA. This
will result in waves of moisture/strong lift up into the region
during this period. So, have gone with likely POPs everywhere,
esply Sun aftn into Mon evening. Pcpn chances decrease fm SSW to
NNE Mon night into Tue morning, as low pressure moves away to
the NNE. Dry wx should return for Tue aftn/evening.
Max temps will range fm the lower 50s to the lower 60s, with
lows in the lower 40s to lower 50s.
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --A warm front stays north of the area this morning as a cold
front sweeps through the region. Mainly VFR to start off the 06Z
TAF period, with MVFR conditions (mainly due to cigs) expected
over the next few hours from NW to SE in association with the
front. Best chance for IFR will be at KSBY and this has been
accounted for in a TEMPO group. Could see some showers as well
especially near the coast. Conditions will improve to VFR
everywhere by late morning/midday as the cold front pushes
offshore, and NW winds gust to ~20 kt.
Outlook: High pressure builds over the area behind the cold
front allowing for VFR conditions tonight into Thursday.
MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible late Thursday and into
Friday as the next low pressure system approaches the region.
Dry weather returns for Saturday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
No headlines in the short term tngt thru Thu. Warm front will
lift well north of the area tngt, as a cold front pushes into
and acrs the waters Wed morning. Southwest winds 5 to 15 kt this
evening thru late tngt, will become west then northwest Wed
morning into early Wed aftn. Waves 1 to 2 ft and seas 2 to 3 ft.
High pressure will build into and over the waters for Wed night
thru Thu, with NW or N winds 5 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft and
seas 2 to 4 ft.
The high slides into the Atlc late Thu night into Fri morning,
with a warm front lifting into and acrs the waters Fri into Fri
night. Winds will be SE or S 10 kt or less. A coastal low
pushes well out to sea on Sat, with weak high pressure building
in behind it during the day. Winds will be N then NE or E 10 kt
or less during Sat.