Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 010518 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 118 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTS TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY...THEN REMAIN ALONG THE COAST OR JUST INLAND OVR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... LATEST REGIONAL MOSAIC DEPICTS SCT LIGHT-MODERATE SHOWERS OVER CNTRL NC THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. THIS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE LIFTING OVER THE SE STATES. RRQ OF DEPARTING 80+ KT UPPER JET ALSO PROVIDING DIVERGENCE ALOFT. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO LIFT NNEWD INTO THE ERN VA PIEDMONT AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. PER LATEST BLENDED PRECIP WATER...PWATS ONLY AROUND 1.2 INCHES. BUFR SOUNDINGS ALSO DEPICTING A RATHER LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR. HOWEVER...SOME TOP DOWN MOISTENING IS EXPECTED...BUT HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST WILL RESULT IN DRY LOW LEVELS. OPTED TO MAINTAIN 30 POPS FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR LIMITED MOISTURE AND DRY LOW LEVELS. OTHERWISE...MID-UPPER CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY-CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LOWS STILL PROGGED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... UNSETTLED/RATHER WET PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE FCST AREA FRI THRU AT LEAST SUN...AS TROF ALOFT SITS OVR THE OH/TN/MS VALLEYS WHILE A FRNTL BOUNDARY SETS UP RIGHT ALONG THE CST OR JUST INLAND OVR THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN A MOIST SFC-ALOFT FLO OVR THE AREA. THAT COMBINED WITH GOOD CONVERGENCE/LIFT...ESPLY WHEN WEAK LO PRES AREAS MOVE NNE ALONG THE FRNTL BOUNDARY...WILL PROVIDE AN IDEAL SET UP FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM ALL LOCATIONS FM FRI EVENG THRU AT LEAST SUN. SEVERE WX IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPLY OVR ERN/SERN CNTIES...FRI NGT THRU SUN AS PWATS ARE FCST TO BE BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.25 INCHES IN THESE AREAS. PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND LIKELIHOOD OF PCPN WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS DOWN OVR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S...WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A STALLED FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN VICINITY OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE TRAPPED BETWEEN A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND A TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. THERE ARE SUBTLE MODEL DIFFERENCES AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY AFFECT THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. 31/12Z GFS REMAINS THE WESTERN-MOST AND HENCE WETTEST SOLUTION...WHILE THE 31/12Z ECMWF/CMC HAVE THE BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE COAST. AT THIS TIME...30-40% POPS (HIGHEST E) WILL BE MAINTAINED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND THEN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL SHOVE THE PLUME OF MOISTURE OFFSHORE...WITH POPS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW-SE THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGHS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 80S MONDAY...AND TREND UPWARD TO THE MID/UPPER 80S TUESDAY...AND UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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DESPITE THE OMINOUS LOOK TO THE RADAR AT 05Z...LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS MAKING IT TO THE GORUND ACROSS FA ATTM. HOWEVER...R- IS FALLING AT DAN / HNZ WITH THE AREA MOVING SLOWLY N & E BUT DSPTG AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE DRY AIR OVR THE I95 CORRIDOR. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS SLOWLY MOVE THE R- N & E TOWARDS THE I95 CORRIDOR AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. THUS...HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AT RIC TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CLOSER TO SUNRISE. OTW...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONT TO THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT ALONG THE COAST. SCT SHWRS WILL BE PSBL DRNG THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH ISLTD LATE AFTRN / EVE TSTRMS DVLPNG...BUT TIMING THESE RATHER PROBELMATIC ATTM GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFFERENCES. THUS...KEPT PCPN OUT OF FCST ATTM WITH VFR CIGS XPCTD DURING THE DAY (CU BTWN 4-5K FT). ADDNTL MOISTURE OVESPRADS THE FA AFTER 00Z BUT INDICTAED CIGS INTO THE MVFR RANGE FOR THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THE FCST PRD. OUTLOOK...THREAT FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A STALLED COASTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT GRADUAL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SAT/SUN AS MOISTURE RAMPS UP. PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHRAS AND TSTMS SAT AFTN AND SUN.
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&& .MARINE... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE INVERTED TROUGH GRADUALLY BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE LOCALLY LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING INLAND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. A SOLID 15KT SSE WIND IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE BAY FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE WIND SHIFTS TO E. AN EASTERLY WIND ~10KT SHOULD PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO SE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE WIND BECOMES S/SW WITH SPEEDS REMAINING AOB 15KT EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3FT...WITH 1-2FT WAVES IN THE BAY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...SAM/TMG SHORT TERM...TMG LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...MPR MARINE...AJZ

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