Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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047 FXUS61 KAKQ 250624 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 124 AM EST Sun Feb 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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A frontal boundary will stall over southern Virginia will lift back north as a warm front this morning. A cold front crosses the Mid Atlantic later this afternoon through tonight and settles across North Carolina on Monday. High pressure returns by Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Latest analysis indicating backdoor cold front now situated within or just south of the route 460 corridor, with temperatures in the 40s to lower-mid 50s along and N of the boundary, with 60s to the south. Not much in the way of any rain, but some patchy drizzle is likely over northern zones through 12Z. Fog is still patchy in nature, though is starting to become more widespread across the eastern shore and have increased the mention for dense fog there from 09-12Z and will need to monitor for potential dense fog advisory issuance if vsbys that currently avg 1/2SM were to continue to drop. Temperatures through 12Z will be fairly steady, and will likely rise several degrees from 09-12Z over southern VA as the front lifts back N.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... A cold front approaches from the W Sunday morning. This front should be slow to cross the area given the strength of the ridge, so have opted for an evening frontal passage, although 24/12z model consensus suggests that thicker mid/high clouds arrive over the Piedmont during the aftn, which could have some impact on high temperatures. Nevertheless, still very warm Sunday with high temperatures in the low/mid 70s over the Piedmont, upper 70s to low 80s for s-central/SE VA and NE NC, with low/mid 70s over the Ern Shore, and locally mid/upper 60s for the MD Beaches. See the climate section for recored highs. The best upper level forcing lifts well N of the area, so PoPs at this time are limited to 20-40% ahead of and along the front. Forecast soundings do depict some steeper lapse rates within the 850-700mb layer, but rather stable above that layer, Given this, have not included any thunder at this time. The cold front drops across the area Sunday night and settles over NC Monday. A secondary area of low pressure tracks along the front along with some mid-level energy and this is expected to bring a period of light rain mainly across srn VA/NE NC (60-80% PoPs) overnight Sunday night through midday Monday. Cooler behind the front, but still above normal with lows Sunday night in the upper 40s N to mid 50s S. Highs Monday in the upper 50s to around 60F, but these values could fall during the day, especially SE. 1030mb high pressure builds in from the NW Monday night. Mostly clear, and actually almost seasonably cool with overnight low temperatures in the mid 30s N to low 40s SE. High pressure remains in vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday. Sunny with high temperatures moderating into the mid/upper 50s over the Ern Shore to the low 60s farther inland. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure over the area Tuesday shifts offshore Tuesday night and Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night dip down to around 40 degrees. Dry for much of the day on Wednesday with showers approaching the southwest portions of the area after 18Z. Highs Wednesday top out in the low to mid 60s and drop to near 50 degrees Wednesday night. Strong area of low pressure develops over the southern Plains Wednesday moving into the Great Lakes by Thursday. Moisture increases across the region Wednesday night into Thursday as a warm front lifts across the region. A trailing cold front is expected to cross the region on Thursday. Models continue to show a decent moisture feed from the southwest so will continue to carry likely PoPs for Wednesday night and Thursday. Any chances for thunder will depend on the actual timing of the cold frontal passage. It should be a pretty decent rainfall for much of the region with models showing in excess of an inch of QPF with this system. Highs on Thursday low to mid 60s and lows Thursday night mid to upper 40s. Cold front will have cleared the area by Friday bringing a return to more seasonable temperatures. A few showers cannot be ruled out on Friday, especially near the coast. Cooler weather makes a return for Saturday. Highs on Friday will range from the mid to upper 50s and highs on Saturday will range from the low to mid 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Backdoor cold front affecting all sites except KECG early this morning. KORF has just scattered out and is now also VFR with just mid clouds at 7-10k ft. KRIC/KPHF will have IFR/LIFR cigs (and vsbys at KRIC) through the next few hrs. KSBY expected to be LIFR for both cigs and vsbys through at least 12Z as the front will be slow to move back N. As the front lifts N, low level jet at ~2k ft will blow from the SW at 40-45kt and create LLWS from approximately 10-14Z this morning. All sites expected improve to VFR later this morning except for potentially the far north where lower ceilings may linger a bit longer. SCT to BKN mid and high clouds are expected this afternoon with a 10 to 15 knot wind gusting 20 to 25 knots. Scattered showers possible in the afternoon as a cold front approaches the region. Genly VFR with mid/high clouds and winds shifting from the SW to the NW this evening (winds will be lighter at this time, mainly <10kt). Outlook: The cold front will be slowing down as it pushes south of the local area late tonight into Mon, with the potential for cig/vsby restrictions along with periods of light rain overnight Sunday through midday Monday (especially over SE VA and NE NC). High pressure arrives Monday night and Tuesday bringing drier conditions to the area. High pressure slides offshore Wednesday with a low pressure system and associated cold front impacting the region Wednesday night into Thursday.
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&& .MARINE... As of 8 pm, will be maintaining marine fog advisory north of Parramore Island on the Atlantic side thru 7am. Otherwise, offshore high and SSW winds dominate into tonight, except north where another backdoor cold front will sag south into the northern waters (winds will shift to the ENE in these areas). Front lifts back N early Sun morning with a breezy SW flow on Sunday. Expect the warm airmass over cold water inversion to keep mixing limited, but still may see some gusts to around 20 kt during the day over much of the area. Marginal SCAs are possible, especially Bay and lower James, but low confidence will preclude issuance at this time. The next cold front crosses the waters Sun night with a wind shift back to the N-NE for Mon. No real CAA surges noted behind the front, so kept winds/seas below SCA levels, but will probably have a few hrs worth of elevated winds early Monday behind the front, and again Mon night/early Tue as sfc high pressure builds into the area from the WNW. High pressure centers over the marine area Tuesday before pushing offshore again late Wednesday. Sub-SCA conditions should continue thru midweek. && .CLIMATE...
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No record high temps were recorded Saturday. Very warm temperatures will again prevail today, but with the backdoor cold front that temporarily dropped through the area, record high mins will not be set for Norfolk and Salisbury where readings dropped into the 40s. * Record Highs/Rec High Mins * Site: Sun 2/25 * RIC: 83 (1930)...54 (1930) * ORF: 81 (2017)...59 (1930) * SBY: 80 (1930)...52 (1930) * ECG: 78 (2017)...54 (1985)
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ650-652.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAS NEAR TERM...AJZ/MPR SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAS LONG TERM...AJB AVIATION...AJB/LKB MARINE...JDM CLIMATE...AKQ

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