Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 030022 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 822 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN STALL ACROSS THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BOUNDARY LINGERS ALONG THE COAST INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN HAVE TRAINED ACROSS PRIMARILY SE VA AND NE NC...BRINGING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS TO THE LOCAL AREA IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.00 TO 2.00 INCHES IN 10-20 MINUTES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR VIRGINIA BEACH WHEN ONE HOUR RADAR PRECIP ESTIMATES REACHED 3.00 INCHES. REPORTS FROM THE 911 DISPATCH CENTER CONSIST OF NUMEROUS FLOODED ROADS AND ROAD CLOSURES. ELSEWHERE THROUGHOUT THE TIDEWATER...PENINSULA/MIDDLE PENINSULA AREAS...AND NORTHEAST NC... URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL RECEIVED IN SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY BLOSSOMED BTWN 1230 AND 200 PM TODAY...WITH RAPID CLOUD TOP COOLING OBSERVED. THIS IS NOT ONLY A GOOD INDICATOR OF STRONG UPDRAFT POTENTIAL (AND SUBSEQUENT DOWNDRAFT WIND GUSTS) BUT ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS THIS AFTN AVERAGED 30 TO 35 MPH...WITH THE HIGHEST GUST OF 43 MPH MEASURED AT SUFFOLK AIRPORT (KSFQ). OVERALL RADAR AND LIGHTNING TRENDS INDICATE THAT WEAKENING IS STARTING TO TAKE PLACE OVER FAR SE VA/NE NC...WITH ONE LAST BATCH OF STRONGER STORMS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE PENINSULA AND MIDDLE PENINSULA AREAS. JUST NORTH OF HERE...EXPECT THE STORMS TO RUN INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS WITH N-NE WINDS. ADDITIONAL COOLING FROM THE MARINE LAYER WILL ACT TO FURTHER STABILIZE THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE FAR NRN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. A SECONDARY AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NC COASTAL PLAIN AND SW VA HAS FIRED UP INVOF AN UPPER TROUGH SPINNING OVER THE TN VALLEY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT SOME CLEARING HAS OCCURRED BTWN THE I-85 AND I-81 TRAVEL CORRIDORS OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...HOWEVER THIS TIMING MAY BE TOO LATE TO SUPPORT INCOMING CONVECTION GOING INTO THIS EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR THE ERN PIEDMONT...THE KEY PLAYER WILL BE THE SFC COLD FRONT AS IT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH TWD THE VA/NC BORDER THIS EVENING AND FLATTENS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. EVEN IF THUNDERSTORMS DIE OFF OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS EVENING... THERE SHOULD STILL BE PLENTY OF ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST MOISTURE BEING PULLED INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY THE UPPER LEVEL TN VALLEY LOW OVERNIGHT. SHORT- RANGE MODELS SHOW VARIOUS BULLSEYES OF ISENTROPIC LIFT PASSING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. HRRR MODEL PRECIP SHOWS A SECONDARY PUSH OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT AND SINCE IT HANDLED THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WELL DURING THIS AFTN...WILL CARRY 70-80 PERCENT POP THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE COOL TO THE NORTH AND WARM TO THE SOUTH BUT STILL GENERALLY IN THE 60S. MORE DAMP FEELING THAN MUGGY TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES DOWN INTO NEW ENGLAND WED AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THU. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SFC COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY PUSH SWD AND STALL ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY DIGS SE INTO THE CAROLINAS DURING THIS TIME. SPOKES OF SHORTWAVE MOISTURE/ENERGY WILL RIDE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY AND KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WED THROUGH THU NIGHT. EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY/NIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN IMPACT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS AS STEERING FLOW REMAINS LIGHT AND PWATS HOVER BTWN 1.50-1.75 INCHES. FOR FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO EXIT THE CAROLINA COAST AND PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LESS OF A GRIP ON THE REGION. REALLY ONLY EXPECTING AFTN THUNDERSTORMS CLOSER TO THE COAST ON FRI. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER WED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S NW TO MID- UPPER 70S SE. LOWS WED/THU NIGHTS IN THE 60S (UPPER 50S FAR NW COUNTIES WED NIGHT). HIGHS IN THE 70S ON THU. HIGHS ON FRI IN THE LOWER 80S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE MOVING OFFSHORE AND WEAKENING SO CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL TEND TO BE LOWER THAN WHAT OCCURS IN THE NEAR/SHORT PERIOD. LATEST GFS/ECMWF FEATURE FAIRLY LIGHT N/NW FLOW ALOFT SAT INTO SUN AS THE MID ATLC BECOMES SITUATED IN BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS AND A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER FLORIDA. TEMPS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SUN AND SLOWLY TRACKS EAST THROUGH CANADA THROUGH NEXT TUE. GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF AT SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE DELMARVA ON SUN. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS MOST AREAS SAT/SUN AS THE GFS IS A BIT OF A CHANGE FROM CONTINUITY AND THINK IT IS LIKELY TOO STRONG GIVEN THE PATTERN AND TIME OF YR. DID DROP POPS TO 20% ACRS NE ZONES. SKIES AVG MOSTLY CLOUDY SAT...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SUN...WITH HIGHS GENLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS MORE TO THE SSE AND EVENTUALLY THE SSW MON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD WARM A BIT...INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S WELL INLAND AND UPPER 70S TO MID 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST. WILL HAVE HIGHER POPS MON AFTN/EVENING WITH THE FRONT...THEN GO ONLY 20% OR LESS TUE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. LOWS GENLY IN THE 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WIDESPREAD RAIN WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN VA INTO MD EASTERN SHORE. THIS IS OCCURRING BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WAS NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER AT 23Z. ISOLATED TSTMS WERE ALSO PRESENT. NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAILED BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE CURRENT SITUATION AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY INTO NORTH CAROLINA AND STALLS. RAIN MAY NOT BE CONTINUOUS BUT SHOULD AT LEAST BE INTERMITTENT AND PREFERRED TO LEAVE IT IN THE TAFS THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT AT ECG. SOME DRYING COULD IMPROVE CONDITIONS TO VFR OR MVFR TEMPORARILY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY AT ORF OR SBY. TIMING OF ANY BREAKS FROM IFR OR RAIN CANNOT BE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. AT ECG...THE FRONT WAS JUST NORTH OF ECG AND THE PCPN AND LOWER CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP AND MAY NOT LAST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ONLY PUT RAIN AND IFR IN THE TAF THERE FROM 08-15Z. OUTLOOK...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS AND INTERMITTENT RAIN DURING THE PERIOD. SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY BE PSBL FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES BUT FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE VFR OR MVFR. && .MARINE... HAVE ALREADY RAISED SCA HEADLINES FOR COASTAL WATERS N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND...BOUNDARY HAS DROPPED SOUTH THROUGH THIS REGION AND SEAS HAVE RAPIDLY RISEN TO 5 FT AT BUOY 44009. LATEST SUITE OF HIGH RES MODELS SEEMS TO HAVE A FAIRLY DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT CONDITIONS...AND HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE SCA HEADLINES IN THE BAY LATER THIS EVENING FOR 15-20 KT NE WINDS EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL. SIMILAR WINDS OVERNIGHT/WED (WITH SOME INCREASE POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN AREAS) AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND SFC LOW PRESSURE STALLS SOMEWHERE NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER. EXACT LOCATION OF BOUNDARY WILL DETERMINE THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF WHERE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED...IN GENERAL SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE AREA IS WHERE MOST UNCERTAINTY WILL EXIST...SEAS SHOULD BE AT LEAST 5-7 FT OVER THE NRN WATERS ON WED DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW...BUT LOOK TO REMAIN 3-4 FT ACRS THE SOUTH. PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES FOR THU AND FRI... ALLOWING FOR IMPROVED MARINE CONDITIONS. PER THE ONSHORE FLOW ALSO RAISED RIP RISK TO MODERATE FOR THE MD ZONES FOR THE REST OF TODAY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ632-634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630-631. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD NEAR TERM...BMD SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...LSA MARINE...JDM/LKB

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