Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 240608 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 208 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure moves further offshore tonight into Tuesday. High pressure builds in from the west for the remainder of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Another spoke of energy will continue to rotate south across the area late this evening then shift towards the coast after 06z. Went ahead and adjusted grids per current conditions keeping chance pops all areas north of the va/nc border until midnite then shifting pops toward the coast after 06z. Kept thunder chances next few hours across sern va where the best stability remains given the current radar echoes. some patchy fog possible across the piedmont after midnight (1-3 sm) given some partial clearing. lows in the low to mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Conditions drastically improve Tuesday, as the upper trough continues to weaken as it ejects northeast toward the northeast/New England coast. While a gradually clearing sky and dry wx is anticipated inland (mostly sunny by afternoon in the piedmont), mostly cloudy conditions and some slight to low end chance pops continue along coastal third of the area. This is in association w/one last upper disturbance rotating through behind the upper trough. Again, while surface-based instability looks to be minimal, LI`s and Showalter numbers indicate some modest, albeit mainly elevated instability. Warmer with highs ranging from the upper 70s to around 80 inland,and mid 70s closer to the coast (low 70s at the immediate coast). Broad upper level ridging builds northeast from the Deep South into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast region Tuesday night into Wednesday, before sliding overhead into Thursday. 850mb temperatures rise to ~15C by Wednesday afternoon...and 16-17c by Thursday afternoon. BL mixing will reach to around 850mb, and should result in highs reaching the mid/upper 80s inland, with low/mid 80s closer to the coast, and upper 70s for the immediate Atlantic coast of the Ern Shore. After morning lows in the 50s to near 60, high temperatures creep up about a category area wide into the upper 80s/around 90 inland (low to mid 80s coastal sections) on Thursday. Forecast soundings/model cross-sections indicate rather dry conditions aloft,owing mainly to subsidence and light downslope flow aloft. Will therefore keep pops in silent range <10% on Wed, with only slight chc for more seasonally typical diurnally-driven pulse convection on Thursday afternoon and early evening. Light downslope flow will likely keep areal coverage of any convection on the low side, and will also serve to mix dewpoints down into the mid/upper 50s in the mid to late afternoon hours both Wed/Thu. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Bermuda sfc high pressure resides over the wrn Atlantic Ocean through the long term periods as mid-upper level ridging moves over the ne CONUS during this time. Although the GFS is trying to develop low pressure over the Caribbean/Bahamas during Thu night/Fri and then tracking it into the Carolinas Sat-Mon, the ECMWF is keeping this system suppressed farther south due to mid-upper ridging well-rooted across the ne CONUS through at least Sun night before beginning to impact the Mid Atlantic Region. WPC forecast is also very similar to the ECMWF and am starting to lean more twd this warmer and drier solution... especially since GFS ensembles support the GFS as more of an outlier at this point. Will trend the long range forecast in this direction regarding precip and temperatures. High temps continue to run above normal throughout the extended forecast periods and are now closer to being around 10 degrees above normal Fri (highs in the upper 80s inland...upper 70s to mid 80s immediate coast). For Sat-Mon, temps are around 5-7 degrees above normal (highs in the mid 80s Sat/Sun and lower 80s Mon). Low temps also still trending around 5-10 degrees above normal Thu-Sun nights (lows generally in the mid 60s). && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Sfc lo pres off the mdatlc cst will cont to track ne and away fm the rgn through tda. Isold -shra psbl...esp invof SBY through early this mrng. Otrw...drier air fm the W sloly spread ovr the fa through tda...resulting in mnly VFR conds. Patchy lgt fog psbl...esp at RIC early this mrng. Very lo prob for isold tstm ern VA...lwr SE MD this aftn/early eve. A much more summer like pattern is expected for the rest of the week. VFR conditions expected mostly, however one could not rule out some fog at night especially with all of the moisture from recent rains. && .MARINE... SCA flags cancelled for srn Ches Bay/Sound/Lower James River as of 330 PM. North winds averaging 10-15kt this aftn...with gusts to around 20kt over the coastal waters. Winds will diminish through this evening as sfc low pressure located about 200 miles east of Ocean City (as of 300 PM today) tracks nnewd well off the NJ coast overnight. Meanwhile, seas are averaging 4-5ft (up to 6ft possible near 20nm) and are expected to subside below 5ft after midnight tonight. Waves 2-3ft. A secondary surge in wly winds is possible late tonight into Tue morning from the mouth of the Bay to the coastal waters south of Cape Charles Light as sfc high pressure starts to build into the region from the west. Speeds will stay aob 15kt during this surge, therefore additional SCA flags are not anticipated during this time. Conditions finally quiet down Tue through Sat as stacked high pressure settles over the area. Winds will generally be s-sw aob 15kt. Seas 2-3ft/waves 1-2ft. Although the GFS model is trying to develop low pressure system over the Caribbean/Bahamas during Thu night/Fri and then tracking it into the Carolinas Sat-Mon, the ECMWF is keeping this system suppressed farther south due to mid-upper ridging well-rooted across the ne CONUS through at least Sun night before beginning to impact the Mid Atlantic Region. Therefore WaveWatch guidance, which is based on the GFS, was not utilized for seas for Fri-Sat. && .CLIMATE... As of 21 UTC/5 pm EDT Observation at Richmond (KRIC), rain total for the day is 0.60". This would bring monthly total to 8.41" for May. May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at Richmond. Top 5 wettest months of May at Richmond 1. 9.13" 1889 2. 8.98" 1873 3. 8.87" 1972 4. 8.67" 1886 5. 8.59" 2003 6. 8.41" 2016 (to date) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ650-652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...ALB MARINE...BMD CLIMATE...

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