Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 262012 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 412 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will approach the Mid Atlantic Region tonight into Thursday and then push through the area Thursday night into Friday morning. High pressure prevails off the Southeast Coast the rest of Friday through the weekend. The next cold front pushes across the region early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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Sfc low pressure located just off the NJ coast is slow to lift away from the Delmarva late this aftn. Although light showers/drizzle have come to an end over the MD Lower Eastern Shore, clouds will continue to persist over the area through this evening and then clear from southwest to northeast. The stacked low over NJ will finally push eastward overnight as another sfc low passes NNE across the Great Lakes States and drags a cold front towards the Mid Atlantic Region. The combination of light south winds and clearing skies overnight will allow temperatures to cool into the upper 50s to lower 60s inland and mid-upper 50s for the Nrn Neck and MD/VA Eastern Shore where lack of warming today and persistent sct-bkn clouds will linger tonight. Compared to seasonal normals, temperatures will run about 15-20 degrees above normal but are not close to breaking record high minimum temps.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The approaching cold front will be slow to advance eastward through Thursday, therefore temperatures will warm nicely with breezy south winds (average gusts around 25 mph) under mostly sunny skies for the better part of the day. With the area remaining largely downsloped as well, expect high temperatures to reach into the mid 80s inland and anywhere from 75-84F beaches. High cirrus and cumulus clouds are expected to develop west of Interstate 95 as the front attempts to cross the mts. Expect shower/thunderstorm chances to increase during the evening (30-50% early evening west and 30-40% east after midnight). There is enough instability/lift along the front, in addition to favorable theta-e dynamics, to support thunder into the overnight hours. Pwats increase to 1.50-1.75 inches, and periods of moderate to heavy rainfall will also be possible. Overall, precip totals should be under 0.25 inches. Warm overnight lows generally in the mid-upper 60s. The front slowly exits the coast Friday morning with lingering showers and thunderstorms possible into the afternoon as daytime heating allows any waning convection/remnant moisture near the coast to re-fire (mainly Tidewater into NE NC and adjacent waters). Highs once again in the mid 80s inland to 75-84F beaches. Pwats lowering so only light qpf amounts (0.05 inches or less) anticipated. The front gets pushed NNE by Friday evening and stacked high pressure begins to dominate off the Southeast Coast. This will allow a warming trend to ensue. Lows Friday night in the 60s under mostly clear skies. Breezy southwest winds expected to develop on Saturday and promote excellent mixing conditions under mostly sunny skies. Highs Saturday in the upper 80s to 90F inland and in the low-mid 80s beaches. High cirrus to spread into the area from the northwest as a weak cold front to the north melds/merges with a warm front extending across nrn VA from a low in the srn Plains. Best dynamics for any shower/thunderstorm development is mainly north of the area, however far nrn counties could see better precip chances (up to 30% POP) Saturday aftn/evening...whereas the remainder of inland areas could experience isolated pop-up storms (up to 20% POP) along seabreeze boundaries. Pwats rebound to around 1.50 inches, thus making brief moderate to heavy rainfall possible with any convection that forms.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Temperatures are expected to remain well above normal through the weekend as an upper level ridge remains anchored over the Ern Conus. 850mb temperatures ~18C will support highs in the upper 80s to around 90 Saturday (75-80F at the immediate coast) after morning lows in the mid/upper 60s. A weak front will knock high temperatures down a few degrees Sunday over the Ern Shore, with low 80s expected and mid/upper 70s at the immediate coast. Meanwhile, highs W of the Bay will once again be into the upper 80s. Aftn/evening chances for showers/tstms Saturday/Sunday will be low and mainly aob 20%. A cold front approaches from the W Monday. Forecast highs Monday are in the low/mid 80s after morning lows in the mid/upper 60s. 25/12z GFS/ECMWF/CMC support the best chc for showers/tstms very late Monday aftn into Monday evening and shifting to the coast late Monday night. Temperatures trend back toward normal Tuesday with highs in the 70s. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Surface low pressure just off the NJ Coast is slow to lift away from the Delmarva late this aftn, and clouds will persist over this area and the Northern Neck through most of tonight before clearing. As such, CIGS will be slow to rise from MVFR to VFR... except off Ocean City where CIGS are currently IFR (700-1000ft AGL). All TAF sites should be VFR by 27/0900-1000Z. Dry Thursday but breezy with southwest winds gusting to around 20kt by late morning/early afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. The front is expected to cross the region Thursday night and exit the coast Friday morning...slowly lifting NNE during Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible overnight Thursday with periods of moderate to heavy rainfall possible and brief reductions to CIGS/VIS under stronger storm cores. Pleasant flying conditions anticipated for most of Friday. Another frontal boundary located well north of the area may provide a focus for more shower/thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon/evening with isolated storms possible along seabreeze boundaries (all TAF sites). Once again, moderate to heavy rainfall may be possible under stronger storm cores with brief reductions to CIGS/VIS.
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&& .MARINE... Latest sfc analysis shows a weak pressure gradient over the region, with sfc low pressure centered just off the Delmarva coast. Winds avg 10-15 kt (or less) over the entire marine area and will be relatively light today, allowing flow to become onshore by late aftn at 10 Kt or less. Seas remain elevated at 5-7 ft north and 4-5 ft south and given the light winds have converted SCA headlines to Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas, these lasting through early this evening S and into Thu morning N. Elsewhere, a relatively benign/decent boating day expected with waves 1-2 ft or less. The gradient becomes a bit stronger on Thu, with winds turning to the S and expected to avg around 15 kt with some higher gusts. Some residual swell around 9-10 sec and the increasing winds look to keep seas elevated/probably coming back up to 5 ft offshore and a SCA headline may be needed for coastal waters. Marginal SCA conditions possible for the Bay/Rivers Thu aftn/evening but overall would expect this to be below criteria for headlines given a very warm airmass (temps in 80s) over water temperatures in the 60s or cooler leading to less than optimal mixing. Waves will build to 2-3 ft in the Bay and 1-2 ft rivers. Similar conditions expected Fri/Sat as the warm weather and a general southerly flow persist. Some guidance depicting a backdoor cold front could shift winds to the NE for awhile for northern coastal waters by Sunday, but most places likely to stay south of this boundary. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Have cancelled all Coastal flood Advisories. Current tidal departures now avg +0.75 to +1.25 ft (lowering from earlier departures that were closer to +1.5 ft). High tide just occurred at Cambridge and only peaked around 3.0 ft MLLW (and has passed all other areas). While water levels will remain elevated through the next 48 hrs with seas off the coast of 4+ feet and continued 9-10 sec swell, the upcoming high tide later today is the lower of the two and all sites should stay at least 0.5 feet below minor criteria. The following high tide cycle tonight/early thu morning could approach minor flooding and a statement may be issued depending on trends today. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ654. Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ656-658. Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 10 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD NEAR TERM...BMD SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...BMD MARINE...JDM/LKB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ

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