Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 201816 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 216 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LO PRES RMNS OFF THE SE CONUS CST LATE THIS MRNG...WHILE SFC HI PRES HAS SETTLED OVR ERN NEW ENG. COMBINATION OF THAT LO AND SFC HI PRES TO THE NNE WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED LO LVL FLO FM THE NE THIS AFTN. WORST OF THE WX WILL BE CONFINED TO CSTL NE NC...WHERE CLDS...GUSTY NE WNDS (TO 30-35 KT) AND SPOTTY LGT RAIN WILL CONT. KEEPING BKN CLDS ACRS EXTREME SE VA/INTERIOR NE NC THROUGH THE AFTN...W/ POPS 20-40%. ELSW...P/MSNY...BREEZY INLAND/WINDY AT THE CST. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS FOR REST OF THE DAY. HI TEMPS RANGING FM THE M/U50S AT THE NR THE BAY/CST IN LWR MD/ERN VA...AND ACRS MUCH OF EXTREME SE VA/CSTL NE NC...TO M/U60S INLAND. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPR LVL RDG BLDS OVR THE REGION LATER TNGT THRU MON WITH LO PRES CONTINUING TO MOVE OUT TO SEA. IMPROVING CONDS EXPECTED OVR CSTL NE NC (ALBEIT SLOLY)...WITH CLEAR TO PRTLY CLOUDY WX ELSEWHERE. COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO THE OH VLY MON EVENG...WILL PUSH E AND OVR THE MTNS TUE MORNG. THAT FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS FM W-E TUE...ALONG WITH THE NEXT CHC FOR RAIN. MOST OF IF NOT ALL PCPN MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTN W...AND EVENG E ON TUE. WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC OF A TSTM...THOUGH DYNAMICS WEAKENING WITH TIME...AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE REGION. LO TEMPS TNGT RANGING FM THE UPR 30S TO LWR 50S. HIGHS ON MON RANGING THRU THE 60S TO NEAR 70. LOWS MON NGT RANGING FM THE MID 40S TO ARND 50. HI TEMPS ON TUE RANGING FM THE MID TO UPR 70S INLAND...TO THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S AT THE CST. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TROUGH AXIS WILL ALIGN ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUES NIGHT- WED MORNING. ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL DIVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH (AIDED BY 110+ KT JET STREAK) WEDS AFTERNOON...LIKELY ONLY RESULTING IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS. SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN SHORE. TROUGH WILL EXIT THE COAST WEDS AFTERNOON AS DIFFLUENCE ALOFT USHERS IN SFC HIGH PRESSURE. FLOW WILL AMPLIFY AS A WRN CONUS TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD INTO THE PLAINS THURS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE OH VALLEY THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION THURS...LOCATING OFF THE SE COAST THURS NIGHT-FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OVER THE REGION THURS NIGHT INTO FRI...AS THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE LOCAL AREA LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. SPATIAL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST WRT FRONTAL TIMING...AS WELL AS THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER FLOW...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM. AS A RESULT...PREDICTABILITY IS RATHER LOW SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT. NEAR SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPS WEDS AND THURS BEHIND THE FRONT IN PART TO NWLY FLOW. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. WARMER FRI AND SAT WITH SW-W FLOW...HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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STRONG LOW PRESSURE NOW OFF THE SC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ENE OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH -RA AND MVFR CIGS OVER NE NC AFFECTING ECG. 3000-4000 FT CIGS ARE POSSIBLE FOR ORF/PHF THRU THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHC OF SPRINKLES OVER ORF. WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-30KT THIS AFTN/EVENING AT PHF- ORF-ECG (AND ~20KT AT RIC/SBY). OUTLOOK: GUSTY WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT...AND WHILE VSBYS REMAIN VFR, EXPECT LOW CLOUDS WL PERSIST ACROSS COASTAL TERMINALS. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN (ECG/ORF) LATE TONIGHT, EXPECT PREDOMINATE VFR FOR MONDAY. NEXT WXMAKER ARRIVES TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDS RETURN WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
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&& .MARINE... INCREASED WAVES IN THE LOWER BAY TO 6-7 FT AS FIRST LANDING IS RECORDING 6.6 FT WAVES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER THE LOWER BAY/SOUND/SRN COASTAL WATERS HAVE REACHED 33-35 KT...BUT MOST HAVE ONLY REACHED AROUND 33 KT. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT AND INCREASE WORDING IN THE MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE (MWWAKQ) AS OPPOSED TO ISSUING A GALE WARNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...BUT REMAIN 20-30 KT. PREV DISCUSSION... EARLY MORNING WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN MAINE/SOUTHEAST QUEBEC...RIDGING SWD INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC. TO THE SOUTH, SFC LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE GA/FL COAST COAST, WITH AN ELONGATED COASTAL TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. THE RESULT IS CONTINUED NE FLOW OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING. SCA FLAGS IN PLACE ALL WATERS. THE SFC LOW PUSHES NE ALONG THE COASTAL TROUGH THROUGH THIS EVENING, W/THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS TO BRING AN INCREASE IN NE WINDS OVER THE WATERS. LOOK FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT. INCREASING NELY WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 6-9 FT...UP TO 10 FT IN THE SRN COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SUN NIGHT-MON, AS THE COASTAL LOW SLIDES FARTHER EAST. AS A RESULT, WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NLY AND SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH MONDAY AFTN. SEAS WL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE...BUT WL REMAIN IN SCA RANGE (4-7 FT) THRU MONDAY NIGHT. FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT, SET TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON- EVENING. SEAS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW 5 FT EARLY TUESDAY WITH SPEEDS FALLING AOB 15 KT. HOWEVER...SCA CONDITIONS AGAIN APPEAR POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT TUES NIGHT-WEDS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ102. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ630>638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654- 656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...MAM/JEF MARINE...MAM/SAM

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