Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 302009 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 409 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY...THEN MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... WEAK HI PRES OVR THE REGION WAS PROVIDING ANOTHER COMFORTABLE AFTN UNDR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. DEWPTS RANGED THRU THE 50S TO NEAR 60...AND TEMPS RANGED FM THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. THE HI WILL SLIDE OFFSHR TNGT INTO THU MORNG...RESULTING IN A DRY FCST UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. STILL RATHER COMFORTABLE NGT WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... TROF ALOFT WILL WEAKEN/SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE OH/TN/MS VALLEYS THU INTO FRI. WEAK SFC HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE CST THU...WITH SSE LO LEVEL FLO ACRS THE AREA. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED...BUT STILL SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WITH WARMER TEMPS. UNDER A PARTLY OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPR 80S. DURING FRI...BERMUDA HI PRES REBOUNDS ACRS THE WRN ATLC...WITH DEEP LAYERED SWLY FLO ALOFT (OVR THE ERN SEABOARD) AND A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ALONG THE SE VA/NE NC CST. IN ADDITION...AN EASTERLY SFC FLO FM THE ATLC WILL PROVIDE INCREASING LO LEVEL MOIST. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM CHCS...ESPLY FRI AFTN/EVENG...AND THUS WILL CARRY SOLID CHC POPS (40-50%). WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARND AND PCPN POSSIBLE...HI TEMPS ON FRI WILL LIKELY BE A TOUCH COOLER THAN THU...IN THE LWR TO MID 80S. FRI NGT AND SAT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL NUDGE INLAND A BIT MORE...AT LEAST INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WITH A CONTINUED MOIST SFC-ALOFT FLO OVR THE REGION...AND WEAK LO PRES AREAS MOVNG NNE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS (60%) EVERYWHERE DURING THIS TIME. EXPECTING PLENTY OF CLOUDS...SO HIGHS ON SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. LOWS FRI NGT RANGING FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BETWEEN A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND A TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. GENERALLY EXPECTING MAINLY DIURNAL AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH LINGERING OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND THEN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL SHOVE THE PLUME OF MOISTURE OFFSHORE...WITH POPS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT CHC NW-SE BY MIDWEEK. HIGHS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY/MONDAY...AND TREND UPWARD TO THE MID/UPPER 80S TUESDAY...AND UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR AND DRY THRU THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRES SLIDES OFFSHORE THIS EVENG. THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF SKC WITH SOME SCT/BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PSBL AT TIMES. WINDS STAY LGT THRU THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENING TSTMS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. VFR IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PCPN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .MARINE... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD AVERAGE 5-10KT OUT OF THE SSE. A COASTAL/INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE WIND WILL BECOME EASTERLY FRIDAY...AND SHIFT TO SE BY SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AOB 15KT. THE TROUGH PUSHES INLAND SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND REMAINING AOB 15KT. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3FT...WITH 1-2FT WAVES IN THE BAY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...TMG LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...JDM MARINE...AJZ

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