Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 021051 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 651 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THIS MORNING...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A COLD FRNT DROPPING INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH WINDS BCMG CALM OR NLY NEAR/JUST BEHIND THE FRNT. THE FRNT BCMS STATIONARY AND LEADS TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHRAS/TSTMS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. FOR TDA...POPS INCREASE THRU THE DAY TO 50-60% THIS AFTN WITH A MOIST AIRMASS AND PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING A TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. COULD BE SOME STRONG STORMS BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SVR WX EXPECTED WITH A MSTLY CLOUDY SKY LIMITING INSTABILITY AND TEMPS BLO NORMAL...HIGHS RANGING THRU THE 80S. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND PSBL MINOR FLOODING...MAINTAINED MENTION FOR THIS IN THE HWO. CHANCE OF RAIN INCREASES TO 60-70% TNGT AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FM THE W AND THE MID ATLC SITS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPR-LEVEL JET STREAK. QPF OVER A HALF INCH PSBL TNGT. LO TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... UNSETTLED WX CONTINUES INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE SFC FRNTAL BNDRY REMAINS OVER THE MID ATLC. SHRAS/TSTMS WILL BE AGAIN LIKELY FRI/FRI NIGHT (60-70% POPS) WITH HI DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (1000-500 MB RH ~85%) AND STILL SOME UPR-LEVEL FORCING. THE FRNT STARTS SLIDING S BY LATE FRI NIGHT/SAT WITH LWR POPS SAT THAN PREVIOUS DAYS BUT STILL A 40-50% CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS OTHER THAN FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA (30%). TOTAL STORM QPF WILL BE ABOUT 1-2" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS DUE TO CONVECTION. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES FOR NOW WITH STILL SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY OVER WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR AND MOST AREAS STAYING BLO FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. TEMPS BLO NORMAL EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS AVGG IN THE UPR 70S TO MID 80S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A GENERAL BROAD TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG THE EAST COAST KEEPING CONDITIONS RATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE AND EXTENDED. WHILE MODELS AGREE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC IS RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE DISTURBANCE RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT. HIGHS SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON THROUGH WED. LOWS U60S-M70S. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WK FNTL BNDRY SLOLY SETTLES S ACRS VA/SE MD TDA. AN AREA OF SHRAS WILL BE CROSSING THE FA THIS MRNG. MNLY VFR CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED W/ SHRAS. MDLS SHOW A BREAK IN THE SHRAS MIDDAY INTO THIS AFTN. PSBL ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION BY LT THIS AFTN/EVE. ANOTHER S/W APPROACHES FM THE W OVRNGT NGT W/ PSBLY ANOTHER RND OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND IFR/MVFR CONDS. THE FNTL BNDRY RMNS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHRAS/TSTMS...ESP FRI/FRI NGT. MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PCPN. && .MARINE... UNSETTLED WX CONDS XPCD OVR THE WTRS INTO AT LEAST SUN. WK FNTL BNDRY TO SETTLE S OVR THE VA/MD WTRS TDA...THEN RMN NRLY STATIONARY INTO SAT (NR HAMPTON RDS). SW WNDS 10 KT OR LESS S OF THE BNDRY...VRB-NNE WNDS 10 KT OR LESS ALG-N OF THE BNDRY. WAVES IN THE BAY AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS AVG 2-4 FT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SUB-SCA CONDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE STALLED FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN SEVERAL EPISODES OF SHRAS/TSTMS INTO SUN. GUSTY WNDS/HEAVY RA PSBL IN ANY STMS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .CLIMATE... JUNE 2015 CLIMATE: AT NORFOLK: *AVG TEMPERATURE OF 78.7 F RANKS AS THE 7TH WARMEST ON RECORD. *TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF 8.34" RANKS AS 5TH WETTEST ON RECORD. AT RICHMOND: *AVG TEMPERATURE OF 77.92 F RANKS AS THE 8TH WARMEST ON RECORD. PRECIPITATION TOTAL OF 6.05" DID NOT ATTAIN A TOP 10 RANKING AT RIC AIRPORT...BUT MANY LOCATIONS IN THE METRO AREA...RECEIVED IN EXCESS OF 10.00 INCHES FOR THE MONTH. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...JAO AVIATION...ALB MARINE...ALB CLIMATE...

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