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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190232
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1032 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. THE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE COLD FRONT SETTLES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AREA OF SFC LO PRES AND ASSOCIATED RAIN CURRENTLY OVER EXTREME SE
VA/NE NC WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVER NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. HEAVY
RAIN/MINOR FLOODING AND WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH STILL PSBL WITH
THESE STOMRS. LOWERED POPS TO 20-30% FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NGT
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDS EXPECTED ALBEIT STILL MOIST LOW LVLS AND
WEAK FORCING. MILD TONIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 60S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TROUGH AXIS WILL LOCATE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDS...AS A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDS ALONG THE COAST FOR LIGHT SHOWERS AS
SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND REMNANT MOISTURE REMAIN. CONFLUENCE
ALOFT WILL ALLOW COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...EXTENDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. COMBINATION OF
NWLY FLOW...LOWER HEIGHTS AND DECREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES WILL TRANSLATE TO TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S WEDS AFTERNOON.
REMNANT MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROVIDE FOR
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. N/NELY WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. ONSHORE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL KEEP TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER
70S OVER THE MD/VA ERN SHORE (THANKS TO OCEAN TEMPS STILL IN THE
UPPER 60S) AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

BAGGY MID LEVEL TROUGH AND NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH FRI. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE THURS-FRI. ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
FRONT CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION WILL STALL OFF THE SE
COAST...WITH BEST MOISTURE REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION.
MODELS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT EXPECT PRECIP TO STAY W OF THE FA. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS NWLY FLOW AND ONSHORE WINDS
CONTINUE (MID 80S...COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST). COOL
MORNING TEMPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW 60S. SOME INLAND LOCALES (ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN VA PIEDMONT)
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RATHER BENIGN PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DROPS S OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
THERE IS VERY LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO A LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING AND ANY SURFACE FOCUSING
MECHANISMS. A GENERAL SHIFT OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM SE-SW WILL
PRODUCE A STEADY WARMING TRENDS WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID/UPPER
80S SATURDAY...TO THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY...AND EVENTUALLY TO THE UPPER
80S/LOW 90S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND
UPWARD FROM AROUND 65 EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVD MOSTLY INTO SE VA
AND NE NC AND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST THRU MIDNIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES PUSHES THRU THE AREA. FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER NEAR THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
WILL START TO DRY OUT AND SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALIGNED SW-NE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT.
THE WESTERNMOST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER W-CENTRAL NC WILL LIFT ENE
OVERNIGHT AND PULL OFF THE COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A BRIEF
SHALLOW NORTHERLY CAA SURGE SHOULD FOLLOW AS THE LOW PULLS OFF THE
COAST. THERE IS A TENDENCY FOR MODELS TO UNDER-ESTIMATE THESE TYPE
OF SURGES...SO A SHORT-DURATION LOW-END SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
BAY/LOWER JAMES/SOUND FROM 08-14Z (4-10AM). AS FOR THE OCEAN...THE
WIND WILL PROGRESSIVELY BECOME NE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OFF OF CAPE COD. AT THIS TIME THE STRENGTH OF THE
FLOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BUILDS SEAS TO 5FT...SO
NO SCA AT THIS TIME. THE HIGH LINGERS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
QUASI-STATIONARY OFF THE NC OUTER BANKS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN STEADY
10-15KT ONSHORE FLOW...WHICH WILL HELP MAINTAIN 3-4FT SEAS. THE HIGH
SLOWLY SINKS S OFF THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND WITH THE WIND
SHIFTING TO S AND REMAINING AOB 15KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ630>634-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...BMD/JEF
MARINE...AJZ