Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 301816 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 216 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MIDDAY SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1022 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS REGION...WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. LATEST IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOWS AREAS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND EASTERN TN VLY TOWARD OUR REGION OUT IN BETWEEN WEAKNESS BETWEEN CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF COAST REGION AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE UPPER LOW IS STILL PROGGED TO OPEN UP AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TOWARD THE CAROLINAS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. THICK LAYER OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE AFTN. ADJUSTED HIGHS DOWNWARD A DEGREE OR TWO...AND EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO HIGHS OF YESTERDAY...MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL BR DRAWN NORTH TONIGHT. DESPITE ONLY WEAK OVERRUNNING/MINIMAL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DRY AIR IN LOW LEVELS, MID/UPPER DYNAMICS COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS. HAVE ADJUSTED POP TIMING TO BE MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH MAJORITY OF 30-40% POP ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP ENOUGH THAT A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS HAMPTON ROADS AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA AFTER MIDNIGHT, SO A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THESE AREAS. OVERALL, PARTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST AND MILD CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT, WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY 65 TO 70. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MONDAY... LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE FOR ALL BUT MD EASTERN SHORE AREAS INTO THE AFTN MONDAY...AND AFTER PRELIMINARY EXAMINATION OF 12Z/30 DATA, WILL LIKELY INCREASE POP MON NIGHT INTO CHC RANGE OVER NE NC ZONES. A BIT MORE MUGGY MON W/ HIGHS MON MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F. TUESDAY... WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING...AS SOUTHEAST RIDGE BUILDS BACK WEST ACROSS THE SE COAST. EXPECT A DRY DAY FOR MOST ON TUESDAY. DESPITE MOIST SW FLOW, WHAT LITTLE WEAK FORCING THAT EXISTS FOR ANY LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. WILL CARRY A 20% POP IN THE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDING ACRS THE FAR S/SE FOR ISOLATED AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS. EXPECT HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID- ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER RETREATS FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH MID-UPPER 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE COAST IS RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. BKN- OVC HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 15KFT TO 20KFT CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN CONFIED TO UPSTATE SC AND SOUTHERN NC THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH INTO NORTHEAST NC AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST VA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY. EXPECT BKN- OVC CLOUDS TO LOWER TO AROUND 8-12KFT AGL LATE THIS EVENING AT ECG...ORF AND PHF AND THEN DOWN TO 3-5KFT AT ECG AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY AT ECG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS FAR N AS ORF OVERNIGHT THOUGH ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT AND POSE NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY. WINDS REMAIN SE TO SW AND LESS THAN 10 KT. OUTLOOK...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE REGION MONDAY. A SLGT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS IS INDICATED MAINLY OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY. MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP AT SOME LOCATIONS NEAR SUNRISE. && .MARINE... WEAK LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE NC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COASTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE GULF STREAM. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. THE RESULT IS A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW (SE TO E) AOB 10 KT. SEAS 2-3 FT IN THE NORTH AND 3-4 FT SOUTH. WAVES 1-2 FT. AS THE LOW LIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...FLOW BECOMES NELY BEFORE BECOMING SLY LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SPEEDS REMAIN AOB 15 KT. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL PUSH SPEEDS TO 10-15 KT. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THRU MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WATER. WIND DIRECTIONS GENERALLY SW TO W THRU WEDS...AOB 15 KT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO DROP INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS AVERAGE 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB/MAM SHORT TERM...LKB LONG TERM...AJZ/DAP AVIATION...SAM/JAO MARINE...SAM

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