Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 040400 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1100 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH CAROLINA ON THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS _985 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO CANADA...WITH WEAKENING SFC HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE...PARTICULARLY AT GSO. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING IN THE MID 30S MOST AREAS...WITH LOWER-MID 40S OVER NE NC AND FAR SE VA. LOOKS LIKE INVERSION WILL HOLD FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS EVEN WITH A 5-10 KT SW SFC WIND. HAVE ADDED AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...ALONG WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MEASURABLE RAIN AMTS GENLY LESS THAN 0.10" OVERNIGHT. LOWERED TEMPS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC TO CURRENT READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. WHILE TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY RISE OVERNIGHT...THINK THE RISE WILL BE VERY GRADUAL OVER MOST OF THE AREA DUE TO THE STEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION (LAMP GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERIFYING SEVERAL DEGREES TOO WARM THIS EVENING AND LOOKS TO WARM THE TEMPS OVERNIGHT TOO RAPIDLY). THUS...SLOWED THE WARM-UP THROUGH 12Z SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH READINGS STILL HOLDING IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S THROUGH 12Z WELL INLAND AS AREAS NEAR THE SE VA AND NE NC COAST RISE THROUGH THE 40S INTO THE LOWER 50S. AS FOR FOG...THE SW WIND SHOULD TEND TO KEEP DENSE FOG WITH VSBYS DOWN TO 1/4SM OR LESS FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD...BUT EXPECT AREAS OF FOG WITH VSBYS FROM 1/2SM TO 2SM TO BECOME COMMON AFTER MIDNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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WED THRU THU NGT...EXPECT VARIABLE WX CONDITIONS WITH VERY MILD TEMPS ON WED/WED NGT ALONG WITH RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS...THEN MUCH COLDER TEMPS RETURNING FOR THU/THU NGT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SLEET AND/OR SNOW. AT THIS TIME...GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF FRNTL PASSAGE AND TEMP PROFILES WITH THE CHANGEOVER FM RAIN TO SLEET AND/OR SNOW. HIGHEST POPS FOR RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACRS THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION DURING WED...AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SE ACRS THE AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S EXTRM N (WHERE SKIES REMAIN OVC ALL DAY)...TO THE LWR 70S S/SE WHERE SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY BY LATE MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL BE S OF THE ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z THU...THEN WAVES OF LO PRES WILL MOVE NE ALNG THE BNDRY AND OFF THE MID ATLC CST THU INTO THU NGT...AS ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BLDS TWD THE MS/OH VALLEYS. COMPROMISE OF 12Z GFS/ECMWF THERMAL PROFILES SHOWS RAIN BECOMES MIXED WITH SLEET...THEN CHANGES TO SNOW/SLEET THEN ENDING AS SNOW FM NNW TO SE ACRS THE FA...FM THU MORNG INTO THU EVENG. STILL SOME UNCERTAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING THOSE TRANSITIONS...AND AT THIS TIME WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING A SLOW TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW THINKING IS THAT SLEET OR SNOW/SLEET MIX WILL KEEP TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO LESS THAN 4" ALL AREAS. EXPECT AT LEAST LGT- MODERATE SNOW/SLEET ACCUMS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ALNG AND N OF A FARMVILLE TO PETERSBURG TO MELFA LINE BY EARLY THU NGT (AS MUCH AS 3-4" POSSIBLE FAR NORTH)...WITH GENLY AN INCH OR LESS OVER FAR SRN VA/NE NC (BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW/SLEET HERE THU EVENING). DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE THU EVENING OVER EXTREME SE VA/NE NC...COULD SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS IN THESE AREAS...1-2". ALNG WITH THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. LO TEMPS WED NGT WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 30S N...TO THE LWR/MID 40S FAR S/SE. TEMPS ON THU WILL BE STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S N TO THE LOWER-MID 30S S BY LATE AFTN.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE UPPER FLOW THRU THE EXTENDED...CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING/BLOCKING OVER THE WRN CONUS/ERN PACIFIC AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...COLD/DRY 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THURSDAYS COLD FRONT LOCATES OFF THE COAST...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. H85 TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -8C FRI (~-1 STD DEV)...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN DEPICTED 24 HRS AGO. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S INLAND AND UPPER 20S-LOW 30S COASTAL AREAS. AIRMASS MODIFIES FRI NIGHT-SAT AS THE COLD/DRY AIR RETREATS NWD. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION SAT...WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW- MID 40S COASTAL AREAS. SKY AVG MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND AND LOW 40S TO UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS OUT WEST...WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING SPLIT/BLOCKY FLOW AND SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE DESERT SW/BAJA. GOOD NEWS IS THAT NOW THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRY SUN NIGHT-EARLY NEXT WEEK...MATCHING THE GFS AND ENSEMBLES. HOWEVER...SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT OVER THE GULF WILL ATTEMPT TO AMPLIFY AND LIFT NWD AS SRN STREAM ENERGY APPROACHES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT. HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON AND TUES) CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS THANKS TO COLD WATER. && .AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 00Z...THE SURFACE MAP SHOWS A WARM FRONT REACHING FROM MICHIGAN ACROSS FAR WRN PA AND SNAKING S/SW ACROSS WV. A COLD FRONT FROM A LOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ACROSS WRN INDIANA AND INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BECOME LARGELY WARM SECTORED ON WEDNESDAY INCLUDING ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT SBY. TUESDAY EVENING HAD AN OVERCAST CLOUD DECK CONTINUING WITH LOWERING CEILINGS. MOS FORECASTS SUPPORT LOWERING OF THE CIGS TO IFR DURING THE FIRST SIX HOURS. PCPN HAS BEEN SPARSE AND SUPPORT FOR MORE THAN LIGHT DRIZZLE OR BRIEF SHOWERS IS NOT PRESENT. HAVE LIMITED THE PCPN IN THE TAFS COMPARED WITH WHAT IS IN THE NAM MOS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS AT SBY THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY AFTN. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S/SW OVERNIGHT AND SW ON WEDNESDAY AND BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES... ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY EXCEPT AT SBY WHERE WINDS SHOULD STAY UNDER 10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK...RAIN INCREASES FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ON THURSDAY BECOMES MIXED PCPN NRN PORTIONS. BY LATE IN THE DAY...PCPN BECOMES SNOW NRN PORTIONS AND MIXED PCPN SRN PORTIONS. PCPN BECOMES MAINLY SNOW THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING FROM THE NW. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES RIC AND SBY AND AROUND AN INCH SE PORTIONS. A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES WITH DRY WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THE RESULT IS LIGHT E-SE WINDS AOB 10 KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-4 FT. SW WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE WATERS. LLJ INCREASES TO 50+KT TONIGHT...BUT WAA AND COLD WATER WILL RESULT IN A SHARP INVERSION OVER THE WATER. THIS WILL PREVENT THE HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE WATER. THUS...SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS OF 20 KT LATE TONIGHT. HAVE CAPPED WINDS AT 15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOB 4 FT. COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE WATER NW TO SE WEDS...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER WEDS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FLOW BECOMES NLY POST FRONTAL...BUT DECREASES TO AROUND 10-15 KT AS CAA LAGS BEHIND. FRONT CLEARS THE WATERS LATE WEDS NIGHT...WITH CAA SURGE ARRIVING INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WATER THURS MORNING...PERSISTING THRU THURS NIGHT. GUIDANCE INDICATING LOW END GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE THURS INTO THURS NIGHT IN THE SRN COASTAL WATERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST GRADIENT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT (UP TO 8 FT SRN COASTAL WATERS) THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING WINDS AND SLOWLY SUBSIDING SEAS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU THE WEEKEND THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...LSA MARINE...SAM

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