Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KAKQ 280029
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
829 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016
High pressure centered over New England will slowly build south
into the Mid Atlantic region through Sunday. Meanwhile, low
pressure will linger off the southeast coast Monday into Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Overall forecast is on track. Only very minor changes made to
temperatures leading up to sunset and to sky cover as cumulus
clouds present earlier this evening have dissipated and shifted
swwd with the convective activity.
Previous discussion (401 PM)...
Latest analysis indicating a weak surface front/boundary now into
NC, with a broad area of high pressure centered over upstate NY.
Still a very warm afternoon across the local area (temperatures
avg 90-95 F inland), but dew points have dropped off into the 60s
except over the far south and southeast where they remain in the
lower 70s. Thus, heat indices are generally at or below 100 F
(which is about 5 degrees lower than yesterday at this time).
For tonight, scattered clouds currently over the SW zones should
dissipate and result in mainly clear conditions this evening.
However, light onshore flow coming off the ocean looks to
gradually bring low clouds into the area after midnight. NAM tends
to be too moist in the low levels with this scenario, but the GFS
bufkit data also shows ample moisture from about 950-850 mb. Have
therefore bumped up sky cover to partly cloudy W of I-95 and to
mostly cloudy from roughly 08Z through 13Z Sunday morning farther
south and east. Some areas of fog will also be possible (mainly
farther inland where skies stay mostly clear for most of the
overnight). Lows tonight will range from 65-70 F over most areas
(locally 70-75 F in the SE near the coast).
On Sunday, as low pressure well off the SE coast is progged to
slowly push a little closer to the coast, models to a varying
degree show the potential for at least isolated to widely
scattered showers during the late morning and aftn hrs for far SE
VA and ne NC zones (will keep the forecast dry elsewhere). Airmass
is progged to cool slightly from today, with highs around 90 F
over interior VA, to the mid to upper 80s elsewhere. Skies avg
partly to mostly sunny N and partly to mostly cloudy S/SE.
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Not much change to the pattern Mon-Tue, another weak front pushes
through the NE CONUS as a sfc trough lingers off the coastal
Carolinas. Highs continue to avg in the upper 80s to lower 90s
with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s along with 20-30% chances
for mainly aftn/evening showers and tstms over Se zones.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Will continue to go with a blend of the 12z GFS and 12z ECMWF for
the extended period. Will have a slgt to small chc (15-30%) for
pcpn Tue ngt into Thu evening fm the combination of possible
tropical moisture along the coast and a cold front pushing acrs
the area late Wed thru Thu. More comfortable airmass will filter
into the region for Thu ngt thru Sat, as high pressure blds in fm
the N and slides to just offshore by late Sat. Highs in the mid
80s to lower 90s Wed, in the mid to upper 80s Thu, and in the
lower to mid 80s Fri and Sat. Lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s Tue
ngt and Wed ngt, in the 60s to near 70 Thu ngt, and in the upper
50s to mid 60s Fri ngt.
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --VFR conditions will prevail over the region through this evening. A
weak cold front will continue to push into NC tonight through
Sunday with only a low chance for shower/tstm activity during the
TAF period. NE-E winds tonight will be generally 5 kt or less and
less than 15 kt on Sunday. There is the potential for low clouds
to develop overnight/early Sunday morning as low level easterly
winds persist. Sct/bkn ceilings 800-1500 ft are possible before
sunrise and could persist into late morning. Also some MVFR/IFR
fog may also develop, but am not confident about how bad or
widespread it might be.
The front will dissipate Sunday aftn into Monday with high
pressure building over the area through mid week. Mainly dry
weather is expected through Wednesday. For Sunday through
Wednesday...isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are
possible each afternoon/evening across far SE VA/NE NC (mainly
impacting KORF and KECG).
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Sub-sca conditions will continue acrs the waters thru at least
the next few days. High pressure centered over the NE U.S. late
this aftn, will shift off the coast for tngt thru Sun. This will
result in NE or E winds 15 kt or less over the waters, with waves
1-3 ft and seas 2-4 ft over the coastal waters. Winds will be arnd
10 or less Mon thru Wed, as weak low pressure or a possible
tropical low will spin off the SE or Mid Atlc coast during this
period. This low will cause long period swells to propagate toward
the coastal waters, with seas remaining 3-4 ft.
Has been a rather hot and dry month of August over much of the
area (quite a contrast to a summer that began very wet). Based on
forecast temperatures for the rest of the month, Richmond and
Norfolk are both going to rank in the top 10 warmest (with a good
chance at being among the top 5 warmest). Richmond has only
received 0.53" of rain for the month (if this were to stand, it
would rank as the 3rd driest on record).