Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 280029 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 829 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered over New England will slowly build south into the Mid Atlantic region through Sunday. Meanwhile, low pressure will linger off the southeast coast Monday into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Update... Overall forecast is on track. Only very minor changes made to temperatures leading up to sunset and to sky cover as cumulus clouds present earlier this evening have dissipated and shifted swwd with the convective activity. Previous discussion (401 PM)... Latest analysis indicating a weak surface front/boundary now into NC, with a broad area of high pressure centered over upstate NY. Still a very warm afternoon across the local area (temperatures avg 90-95 F inland), but dew points have dropped off into the 60s except over the far south and southeast where they remain in the lower 70s. Thus, heat indices are generally at or below 100 F (which is about 5 degrees lower than yesterday at this time). For tonight, scattered clouds currently over the SW zones should dissipate and result in mainly clear conditions this evening. However, light onshore flow coming off the ocean looks to gradually bring low clouds into the area after midnight. NAM tends to be too moist in the low levels with this scenario, but the GFS bufkit data also shows ample moisture from about 950-850 mb. Have therefore bumped up sky cover to partly cloudy W of I-95 and to mostly cloudy from roughly 08Z through 13Z Sunday morning farther south and east. Some areas of fog will also be possible (mainly farther inland where skies stay mostly clear for most of the overnight). Lows tonight will range from 65-70 F over most areas (locally 70-75 F in the SE near the coast). On Sunday, as low pressure well off the SE coast is progged to slowly push a little closer to the coast, models to a varying degree show the potential for at least isolated to widely scattered showers during the late morning and aftn hrs for far SE VA and ne NC zones (will keep the forecast dry elsewhere). Airmass is progged to cool slightly from today, with highs around 90 F over interior VA, to the mid to upper 80s elsewhere. Skies avg partly to mostly sunny N and partly to mostly cloudy S/SE. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Not much change to the pattern Mon-Tue, another weak front pushes through the NE CONUS as a sfc trough lingers off the coastal Carolinas. Highs continue to avg in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s along with 20-30% chances for mainly aftn/evening showers and tstms over Se zones. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Will continue to go with a blend of the 12z GFS and 12z ECMWF for the extended period. Will have a slgt to small chc (15-30%) for pcpn Tue ngt into Thu evening fm the combination of possible tropical moisture along the coast and a cold front pushing acrs the area late Wed thru Thu. More comfortable airmass will filter into the region for Thu ngt thru Sat, as high pressure blds in fm the N and slides to just offshore by late Sat. Highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s Wed, in the mid to upper 80s Thu, and in the lower to mid 80s Fri and Sat. Lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s Tue ngt and Wed ngt, in the 60s to near 70 Thu ngt, and in the upper 50s to mid 60s Fri ngt. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR conditions will prevail over the region through this evening. A weak cold front will continue to push into NC tonight through Sunday with only a low chance for shower/tstm activity during the TAF period. NE-E winds tonight will be generally 5 kt or less and less than 15 kt on Sunday. There is the potential for low clouds to develop overnight/early Sunday morning as low level easterly winds persist. Sct/bkn ceilings 800-1500 ft are possible before sunrise and could persist into late morning. Also some MVFR/IFR fog may also develop, but am not confident about how bad or widespread it might be. The front will dissipate Sunday aftn into Monday with high pressure building over the area through mid week. Mainly dry weather is expected through Wednesday. For Sunday through Wednesday...isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are possible each afternoon/evening across far SE VA/NE NC (mainly impacting KORF and KECG).
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&& .MARINE... Sub-sca conditions will continue acrs the waters thru at least the next few days. High pressure centered over the NE U.S. late this aftn, will shift off the coast for tngt thru Sun. This will result in NE or E winds 15 kt or less over the waters, with waves 1-3 ft and seas 2-4 ft over the coastal waters. Winds will be arnd 10 or less Mon thru Wed, as weak low pressure or a possible tropical low will spin off the SE or Mid Atlc coast during this period. This low will cause long period swells to propagate toward the coastal waters, with seas remaining 3-4 ft. && .CLIMATE... Has been a rather hot and dry month of August over much of the area (quite a contrast to a summer that began very wet). Based on forecast temperatures for the rest of the month, Richmond and Norfolk are both going to rank in the top 10 warmest (with a good chance at being among the top 5 warmest). Richmond has only received 0.53" of rain for the month (if this were to stand, it would rank as the 3rd driest on record). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...BMD/LKB SHORT TERM...LKB LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...LKB/JEF MARINE...TMG CLIMATE... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.