Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 011502 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1002 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY...AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVES EAST. THIS LOW WILL PUSH FROM OHIO INTO PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT...AND RE-DEVELOP OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1028 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SC/SOUTHERN NC COAST...WITH DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI. WV SATELLITE REVEALS A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER COLORADO...AND THIS WILL PHASE WITH A DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER NEBRASKA LATER TODAY TO HELP DRIVE THE SFC LOW ENE THROUGH THE DAY. OVER THE LOCAL AREA...THE SKY HAS BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING WITH CIGS OF 10-15K FT. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 30S/LOW 40S WITH A LIGHT SOUTH WIND. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO FORECAST REASONING TODAY...SFC LOW IN THE MIDWEST HAS A LONG WAY TO TRAVEL BEFORE REACHING THE EAST COAST...SO LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN CLOUDS TODAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY SO SKIES SHOULD AVG OUT CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. A LIGHT SSE WIND OF 5-10 MPH WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH A FAIRLY MILD AFTN EXPECTED. WENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS FOR HIGHS INTO THE LOWER-MID 40S FAR NORTH...TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... FOR THIS EVENING...DEEPER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO REACH EAST OF THE MTNS AS SFC LOW AT 00Z WILL ONLY BE AS FAR EAST AS CENTRAL INDIANA OR WESTERN OHIO. THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY BELOW 800MB...SO WILL ONLY HAVE LOW CHC POPS INTO EARLY EVENING FOR THE NORTHEN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT RAIN THROUGHOUT THE EVENING...BUT GIVEN THE DRY AIR INITIALLY...THE ONSET OF PCPN COULD BE A MIX OF -RA/IP (ALTHOUGH WITH SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S NO IMPACTS WILL OCCUR). MOISTURE STEADILY INCREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LIKELY POPS REACHING NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES BETWEEN 03-06Z...STEADILY INCREASING TO CATEGORICAL (80-90%) FOR ALL AREAS AFTER 09Z. THE SURFACE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO MODIFY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE LOW TRACKING WELL N OF THE AREA. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S SHOULD OCCUR IN THE EVENING...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATING TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE BY 12Z MONDAY. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR ALL OF THE AREA FROM 12Z TO 15Z MONDAY...AND IN FAR SE SECTIONS THIS MAY BE THE PERIOD OF MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. A QUICK DRYING TREND COMMENCES FROM 15-18Z ALTHOUGH TRENDS ARE A TAD SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS MODELS HAD INDICATED. AFTER 18Z...ONLY CHC POPS WILL BE CONTINUED FOR THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA...WITH THE SKY BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY OVER INTERIOR VA/NC. THE DAY WILL BEGIN WARM...AND CAA WILL LIKELY WAIT UNTIL AFTER SUNSET...SO HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 F FAR NW...TO 55-60 F ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. DEEP LAYER NW FLOW PREVAILS MONDAY NIGHT...AND BACKS TO WESTERLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE (AND ASSOCIATED CAA) TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGH LOCATING ALONG THE COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS NW...TO LOW-MID 20S SE UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. COLD TUE AS SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S NE...TO THE LOWER 40S SW UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... SFC HI PRES DRIFTS OFF THE CST TUE NGT INTO WED...RESULTING IN MILDER WX MIDWEEK. CDFNT APPROACHES FM THE NNW WED...THEN SLOLY SETTLES S ACRS THE AREA WED NGT THROUGH THU...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SFC LO PRES TRACKS E INVOF GULF COAST STATES. STILL SOME DIFFERENCE BTWN THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE SLOWLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. ECMWF CONTS TO SUPPRESS MOISTURE W/ SRN LO PRES WHILE GFS SHOWS SOME MOISTURE (AND PTNTL P-TYPE ISSUES) INTO/ACRS THE FA (ON THU) BEFORE DEPARTING THU NGT. WILL GO W/ CONSENSUS FM HPC...AND HAVE WIDESPREAD CLDNS AND CHC POPS (RA S...MIXED SN OR RA/SN N) AS COLDER AIR SPREADS INTO THE RGN. DRY AND COLD FRI/SAT. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING HAS RESULTED IN DRY CONDITIONS AND CALM-LIGHT WINDS. A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO STREAM BKN MID-HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING...VARYING FROM 12-15K FT AGL. FOR TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFFSHORE. VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH DECKS 10 TO 15K FT AGL WILL COVER THE AREA TODAY. MAY ALSO SEE A FEW-SCT DECK AROUND 5K FT AGL FROM KRIC TO KSBY. WINDS BECOME S-SWLY GENERALLY AOB 10 KT. SKIES BECOME OVC THIS EVENING AS THE APPROACHING SFC LOW LIFTS INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT REACHES THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE PIEDMONT THIS EVENING...REACHING KRIC AND KSBY BY LATE THIS EVENING. HAVE OPTED TO TREND SKY COVER TO MVFR AND INTRODUCE -RA BR AT KRIC AND KSBY AS A RESULT. COLD FRONT SWEEPS THRU THE LOCAL AREA MON MORNING...PUSHING OFFSHORE MON AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BEST CHANCES FOR IFR WILL BE FROM CIGS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. VSBYS LOOK TO BE GENERALLY MVFR ATTM. CONDITIONS IMPROVE POST FRONTAL WITH CLEARING SKIES LATE MON-MON EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUES-WEDS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WEDS NIGHT-THURS MORNING. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW THIS MORNING WITH SPEEDS AOB 10 KT. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-3 FT...AND SUBSIDING. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE WATERS WITH THE FRONT SWEEPING THRU THE REGION MON MORNING-AFTERNOON. SLY FLOW INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WITH SCA HEADLINES IN PLACE BEGINNING TONIGHT IN THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND FOR GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT LATE TONIGHT-EARLY MON MORNING IN THE COASTAL WATERS AS SLY WINDS INCREASE TO 20-30 KT. HEADLINES BEGIN LATE TONIGHT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS. SEAS BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT MON AFTERNOON WITH WAVES 3-4 FT. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MON AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW BECOMING W TO NW POST FRONTAL. STRONG CAA WILL KICK IN MON EVENING IN TANDEM WITH INCREASING GRADIENT WINDS. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS MON NIGHT. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN HOISTED AS A RESULT. GUSTS OF 35-40 KT EXPECTED OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS AND GUSTS OF 30 KT IN THE RIVERS AND SOUND. SEAS FORECAST TO BUILD TO 6-10 FT MON NIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY ALSO EXPECTED MON NIGHT AS TEMPS OVER THE WATERS DROP INTO THE LOW-MID 20S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE TUES NIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THRU TUES MORNING. WINDS WILL DROP BELOW SCA TUES MORNING ALL WATERS...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4-6 FT. SEAS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 5 FT TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATERS TUES AND WEDS WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS LATE WEDS NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ630>638. GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ650- 652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB/AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...SAM MARINE...SAM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.