Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 290010 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 810 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will slowly slide off the New England coast through tonight. Meanwhile, a weak tropical depression will linger off the Carolina coast through Tuesday, before pushing farther out to sea on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Current analysis indicating ~1026 mb surface high pressure centered off the New England coast/into Atlantic Canada, with Tropical Depression #8 located well off the Se US coast (about 350 miles SE of Cape Hatteras). Please see latest forecast from TPC/NHC for details, though no significant impacts are expected for the local area. Partly-mostly sunny skies prevail over the NW 2/3 of the CWA, with more clouds persisting in far SE VA and NE NC. Temperatures range from the upper 80s to around 90 F well inland amd in the low to mid 80s along the SE coast. Will maintain a 20% POP in NE NC into the early evening, though bulk of moisture will stay along/S of Albemarle Sound. Overall, anticipate fairly similar scenario to last night/early this morning as skies will be mostly clear in the evening (except over the far SE), with another round of low clouds and at least some patchy fog inland from about 06-12Z Monday morning. 12z GFS and NAM Bufkit soundings show this potential as they did yesterday at this time. Lows overnight to range from the lower 70s SE coast to 65-70 F elsewhere. For Monday, TD #8 progged to drift W but still remain too far off the NC/SC coast to have any significant impacts on the sensible wx. High res models suggest once again a chance for isolated/widely scattered showers in SE VA and NE NC (POPS 20-30%) while conditions stay primarily dry elsewhere. Highs will avg around 90 F well inland and N to the mid 80s SE. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Still not much change to the pattern Mon night/Tue, as a weak front pushes through the NE CONUS (and S into VA) as the tropical depression lingers off the coastal Carolinas before slowly curving NE and farther out to sea Late Tue/Wed. Highs will average in the u80s- l90s (low- mid 80s at the immediate coast)...w/ lows in the u60s- l70s along w/ 15-30% chances for mainly aftn/eve shras/tstms over SE VA- NE NC zones. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... At this time, going closer to the 12z ECMWF for the extended period. The combination of some tropical moisture along the mid atlc and se cst, and the approach and passage of a cold front, will produce slgt to sml chcs (15-30%) for pcpn Wed ngt into Thu evening. Dry wx and a more comfortable airmass will filter into the region for Thu ngt into Sun, as high pressure blds in fm the N and slides offshore on Sun. Highs in the mid to upper 80s Thu, and mainly in the lower to mid 80s Fri, Sat, and Sun. Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s Wed ngt, in the 60s to near 70 Thu ngt, in the upper 50s to mid 60s Fri ngt, and in the 60s Sat ngt. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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High pressure remains over the region this evening resulting in VFR conditions. Periods of MVFR ceilings still possible southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina, but overall VFR conditions observed. Locally dense fog and low clouds (LIFR/IFR) will again be possible overnight/Monday from 06-12Z. Exception will be MVFR conditions for the southeast local area due to clouds and light northeast winds. Conditions improve 12-13Z Monday with VFR conditions and northeast winds. Mainly dry weather is expected through Wed other than isolated to scattered shras/tstms are possible each afternoon/evening across far SE VA/NE NC (mainly impacting KORF and KECG). Tropical depression 8 is progged to develop into a Tropical Storm and lift off the NC Outer Banks Wednesday, posing little threat to the local area.
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&& .MARINE... Will continue with no headlines in the short term tngt thru Tue. High pressure over the Canadian Maritimes late this aftn, will slide into the nrn Atlc tngt. Meanwhile, Tropical depression eight well ESE of the NC cst, is expected to move WNW twd the outer banks of NC by Tue, then turn NE and out to sea Tue ngt into Thu. Expect NE thru SE winds 15 kt or less acrs the waters thru Tue, with waves 1-3 ft and seas 3-4 ft. The tropical depression will affect the srn waters, esply coastal zns thru Wed with 10 to 15 kt winds, and waves 2-3 ft and seas near 4 ft. A cold front will push acrs the waters Thu into Thu evening, with winds shifting to the NNE at 10 to 15 kt. && .CLIMATE... Has been a rather hot and dry month of August over much of the area (quite a contrast to a summer that began very wet). Based on forecast temperatures for the rest of the month, Richmond and Norfolk are both going to rank in the top 10 warmest (with a good chance at being among the top 5 warmest). Richmond has only received 0.53" of rain for the month (if this were to stand, it would rank as the 3rd driest on record). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...LKB/SAM MARINE...TMG CLIMATE...

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