Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 211816 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 216 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure becomes centered off the Mid Atlantic coast through Tuesday. A cold front crosses the area late Wednesday, with strong high pressure building north of the area from Thursday into the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Latest surface analysis centers ~1024mb high pressure just offshore, resulting in light south to southeast flow over the local area. Morning fog/stratus has dissipated, with only some lingering low clouds over southeast Virginia. Otherwise for today, expect partly cloudy/variably cloudy skies N and partly-mostly sunny south with decent eclipse viewing expected for the most part this aftn. With some weak upper level shortwave energy currently over OH moving east through the day, should see enough of a trigger for sct convection to develop across the mts then drift e-se across the northern most zones of the fa by around 18Z. Will carry chc PoPs to 30-40% mainly north of RIC, with 20% into metro RIC and dry across the south. Highs upr 80s- lwr 90s except mid 80s at the beaches. Hourly temperature forecast has temperatures falling a few degrees during the eclipse (18/19Z), then rising again through 21Z. Becoming mostly clear this evening/except partly cloudy NE where a 20-30% PoP will be maintained. Warm/humid with lows mainly 70-75 F tonight. Fog/stratus possible again tonight over the Piedmont into central Virginia. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Hot/mainly dry Tues ahead of the approaching cold front. 85-90 F along the coast, 90-95 F west of the bay. Dry most of Tues night except increasing moisture could lead to a few showers by daybreak across nrn most zones. Warm with most areas having lows only in the mid 70s. Frontal boundary a bit slower to traverse the fa Wed. This combined with a weak wave progged to move east along it will spread widespread moisture and support likely pops in the afternoon, but probably not much in the morning (especially over the SE). Another round of mdt to hvy downpours possible ahead and along the fropa. Highs mid 80s NW to around 90 F south. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A cold front gradually drops through the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Modest ascent accompanies the front within the RRQ of a ~110kt jet over New England along with pw values to around 2.0" (around +1 st dev). The highest PoPs by Wed evening look to focus across srn VA/NE NC where 70% will be maintained, tapered to ~30% across the NW where drier air arrive first. PoPs across SE portions gradually diminish to 20-40% by Thursday aftn. Thunder will be maintained into Wednesday evening, with showers thereafter as stable NE flow prevails in the wake of the front. Drier air gradually filters in from the NW late Wednesday night into Thursday with partial clearing across the nrn tier counties. Lows Wednesday night range from the mid 60s NW to the low 70s SE, followed by highs Thursday in the upper 70s to low 80s. ~1025mb (+1 st dev) high pressure builds from the Great Lakes across the Saint Lawrence Valley and into New England Thursday nigh through Sunday. This will result in persistent onshore flow, which combined with a drier airmass will result in a series of pleasant days with highs in the upper 70s at the coast to low 80s inland, with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s inland, and mid/upper 60s along the coastlines. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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High pressure has centered offshore early this afternoon, with flow becoming south to southeast over the area. Scattered to broken cu has developed over the region, with decks around 3500 to 4500 feet AGL. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed over the Piedmont, along a lee/thermal trough. Expect that activity to remain west of the TAF sites this afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail with south to southeast winds at or below 10 knots. Continued mainly dry tonight and probably will see a little less in the way of fog/low cloud Tue morning as southerly flow becomes a little stronger. The next cold front approaches the region Wed, and flight restrictions will be possible Wed, mainly in the aftn and through Wed night in showers/tstms. Some showers may linger across SE terminals into Thu morning, but otherwise improving conditions except with a breezy NE flow near the coast Thu/Fri.
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&& .MARINE... Early this morning, sfc high pressure was cntrd over the area. The high will move off the coast and out to sea today through Tue, and a cold front will approach the waters Tue night into Wed morning. The front will then cross the area Wed/Wed night and will push well SE of the area during Thu, with high pressure building back into the region for the remainder of the forecast period. Expect SE or S winds around 10 kt or less during today, as high pressure moves offshore. Winds increase and become SSW ahead of the approaching cold front Tue through Tue night. Winds speeds may approach 15 to 20 kt over the Ches bay and ocean with seas building to 3 to 4 ft, potentially up to 5 ft north/20nm out, and waves building to 2 to 3 ft. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed for the Chesapeake Bay and nrn two coastal zns Tue night. Winds shift to the N/NE behind the front late Wed through Thu around 10 to 15 kt. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB/SAM SHORT TERM...LKB LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...LKB/SAM MARINE...TMG

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