Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 300600 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA 200 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure becomes centered off the northeast coast tonight and Thursday. Low pressure and associated frontal boundaries track across the region Friday. High pressure builds over the area for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Current wv imagery shows a potent low over the Central Plains, with an upper ridge extending nwd from the Southeast Conus through the Ohio Valley and Ern Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure is centered over James Bay, and will build into the Mid-Atlantic from the N this evening and will continue expand swd overnight, with a light ENE wind developing. Mostly clear this evening, with increasing clouds after midnight, primarily across the Piedmont. Cooler tonight with lows ranging from the upper 30s/around 40 N/NE, to the low/mid 40s S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... H5 ridge becomes centered off the coast Thursday. TSCTNS show moisture at various levels due to WAA atop the stable onshore flow. Expect partly cloudy skies east, mstly cloudy to cloudy west with any upslope shwr activity remaining west of the fa. Given weak/low mixing and the cloud coverage, expect a cooler day with highs 55-60 except 50-55 at the beaches. Moisture increases late Thursday night ahead of approaching upr level low. Will keep the evening dry with shwrs overspreading the area after midnight. Pops range from chc along the coast to likely across the Piedmont. Lows in the low-mid 40s. Rather challenging forecast Friday as the models continue to prog a strong closed low to become negatively tilted as it crosses the region. Main sfc low to track north of the fa but data suggests another spoke of energy will rotate arnd the main low resulting in a triple point low crossing northern VA Friday afternoon and evening before moving off the NJ coast Friday night. Copious amounts of Atlantic moisture forecasted ahead of the low along with PW`s btwn 1.25 to 1.50 inches. This will lead to locally heavy downpours Friday. Challenge for the afternoon will be the amount of convection that develops. SPC has the southern half of the fa in a marginal risk but a lot of uncertainty remains on just how unstable it becomes. Thus, categorical POPS will be maintained across the fa with thunder chcs limited to the afternoon and mainly across the south. Slght chc thunder across the north. Temps tricky and may depend on any heating that occurs. Highs in the 60s except near 70 southern most zones. Likely to categorical POPS continue Friday evening with POPS tapering off after midnight as the low pulls offshore. Thunder chcs will be limited to the evening and mainly across the south and east. Lows in the upr 40s-mid 50s. Trailing upr level energy tracks across the eastern shore early Sat. Will keep slght chc morning pops there, otw decreasing cldns. Highs in the low-mid 60s eastern shore, mid 60s-lwr 70s west of the bay. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Weak high pressure returns to the region Sat night/Sun with NW flow aloft. Mostly clear skies and cool temperatures anticipated with lows in the 40s Sat night and highs in the 60s Sun (upper 50s Atlantic beaches). High pressure slides offshore Sun night/Mon as the next low pressure system deepens over the Arklatex Region/Lower Mississippi Valley. The low continues to track NE into nrn OH/PA Mon night into Tue...dragging a cold front through the Mid Atlantic Region Tue aftn/evening. Increasing cloudiness late Sun night into Mon with similar temps to Sun. Lows in the 40s Sun night, and highs in the 60s Mon (upper 50s Atlantic beaches). Sfc pressure gradient tightens substantially late Mon night into Tue ahead of the approaching cold front. S-W winds gusting up to 25-30 mph will be possible. Widespread rainfall is anticipated during this timeframe with very low thunderstorm chances due to rain occurring primarily in the morning. Warmer temperatures Mon night/Tue as a warm front lifts north through the region. Lows Mon night in the mid-upper 40s far nrn counties (i.e. north of the warm front) and in the lower 50s elsewhere. Highs Tue in the 60s far nrn counties and in the lower 70s elsewhere. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR conditions prevail over the region early this morning as high pressure builds over the region. Strong low pressure over the southern Great Plains will move northeast into the Ohio Valley later Thursday, resulting in increasing mid to high clouds over the Mid Atlantic region. While Ceilings should remain in VFR to High end MVFR range today, good model agreement exists that ceilings will gradually lower through the day from west to east with warm air advection atop cool onshore flow at the surface. Mostly cloudy to overcast conditions (ceiling in the 5 to 7 KFT range AGL) expected through the day at RIC, reaching SE terminals at KORF/KECG by mid to late morning. OUTLOOK...Low pressure will move from the Ohio Valley across northern portions of the Mid Atlantic States to south of New England by Saturday morning. Widespread rain develops late tonight into Friday morning with a chance for thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. Periods of MVFR/IFR will be likely with Visibility restrictions possible by Friday morning and afternoon. Conditions improve quickly Saturday morning with high pressure rebuilding back over the area for the weekend. There will be a chance for showers western portions of the area by late Monday as the next system develops over the Mississippi Valley.
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&& .MARINE... High pressure continues to build into the region from the north tonight and slides across the Delmarva on Thu. Breezy NNE winds 10-15kt through early evening will diminish around sunset. Although a diurnal increase in winds is anticipated late tonight into Thu morning, persistent onshore/NE-E winds will remain aob 15kt through Thu. However, seas could reach up to 5ft out near 20NM in NNE swell and have issued SCA flags for all coastal waters from 500AM through 700PM Thu; may be able to drop headlines with forecast package late Thu aftn. High pressure slides offshore Thu night as an approaching low pressure system tracks over the Great Lakes states. Winds become more SE overnight. Speeds still aob 15kt with seas 3-4ft/waves 2ft. The sfc pressure gradient tightens on Fri as a warm front lifts north across the area Fri morning ahead of an approaching cold front, which is expected to cross the waters Fri evening. Wind speeds are expected to increase to low-end SCA (15-25kt) Fri morning...becoming SW-W and decreasing aob 15kt Fri evening with the cold frontal passage. Seas also build to 5ft Fri morning and could reach up to 6ft nrn coastal waters Fri aftn...primarily due to onshore swell. Elevated seas around 5ft expected through Fri night...possibly lasting through Sun for far nrn coastal waters. Waves on Ches Bay should average 2-3ft on Fri. Weak high pressure returns to the region Sat/Sun with northerly winds aob 15kt Sat and aob 10kt Sun. Seas 3-5ft far nrn coastal waters/2-4ft srn coastal waters. Waves generally 1-2ft. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...AJZ/MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...MAM/JEF MARINE...BMD/TMG

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