Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 280547 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1247 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... SFC LO PRES CONTS TO MOVE AWAY FM THE CST OVRNGT...WHILE SFC HI PRES FM THE MID MS VLY BEGINS TO BUILD OVR THE MTNS INTO THE MDATLC RGN. EARLIER SHRAS HAVE DISSIPATED...RESIDUAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN SLO TO BREAK INVOF SE VA/NE NC PAST FEW HRS. XPCG CLRG FOR THOSE AREAS OVRNGT...W/ MNLY SKC ELSW. THE CLDS HAVE BEEN HOLDING TEMPS UP OVR SE VA/NE NC...BUT THAT LIKELY TO CHANGE SOON. LO TEMPS RANGING FROM THE M/U20S W OF I 95 TO THE L/M30S SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... A QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL ON FRI EVEN UNDER NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE. THIS WILL RESULT FROM STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TN VALLEY...BUILDING EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. NW WINDS AVERAGING 10-15 MPH IN THE MORNING WILL GENLY BECOME LIGHTER BY AFTN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. BLENDED GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE FOR HIGHS GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BE -8 TO -10 C. THIS WILL YIELD HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S THROUGHOUT...MID 40S IN NE NC AND IT MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE UPPER 30S ACRS THE FAR NORTH. THANKFULLY...THE SUN WILL FINALLY SHINE. NAM/GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRI NIGHT...ALLOWING THE UPPER FLOW TO FLATTEN OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS BRINGS AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACRS THE NORTH. STILL EXPECT A COLD NIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY DROP IN THE EVENING THEN LEVEL OFF THEREAFTER. LOWS MAINLY 25-30 F...NOT REALLY ANY WARMER NEAR THE COAST DUE TO LIGHT FLOW ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SFC HIGH. SKIES AVG PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH...AND PARTLY SUNNY SOUTH ON SAT...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTN. TEMPS MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW. STILL A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL SEND A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. RIDGING ALONG THE LATITUDE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA WILL KEEP HEIGHTS HIGH ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF ARCTIC AIR. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOLLOWING THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH A CLEARING SKY FROM THE WEST BUT SLGT CHC POPS CONTINUING TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM. HIGHS IN THE UPR 50S NE TO MID 60S SW MONDAY COOL TO THE MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS IN THE 40S MONDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNINGS. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE AREA DURING TODAY...RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING AT THE TAF SITES. EXPECT JUST HI CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENG THRU SAT...AS A WEAK WARM FRONT ALOFT LIFTS INTO AND ACRS THE AREA. NW WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20 KT LATE THIS MORNING...AS CAA CONTINUES ACRS THE REGION. OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SSW WINDS ARE EXPECTED SAT NGT INTO MON...AS HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE ERN NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG ~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