Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 230751 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 351 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE PIEDMONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS HI PRES CENTERED OVR NEW ENGLAND AND A DISORGANIZED PRES FIELD OVR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION COINCIDING WITH A WEAK STALLED FRNTAL BNDRY. ALOFT...NW FLOW CONTINUES WITH AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVR THE E-CNTRL CONUS. THE SFC FRNT WILL SAG S INTO THE CAROLINAS TDA. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY WITH SCT SHRAS/TSTMS...ESPECIALLY OVR THE PIEDMONT CLOSER TO THE FRNT. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WILL BE CONFINED AWAY FROM THE CSTS DUE TO NE FLOW WITH HI PRES BLDG OVR NEW ENGLAND. NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR WX BUT HEAVY RAIN IS PSBL IN SOME AREAS. AFTN HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 70S TO NEAR 80 OVR THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE LO-MID 80S ELSEWHERE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THE HIGH SURGES SSW OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE PIEDMONT BY MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A DRYING TREND ALONG WITH A NE WIND THAT SHOULD BE RATHER BREEZY ALONG THE COAST. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH MONDAY (AROUND -1 ST DEV). HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S SUNDAY MORNING...WITH MAINLY LOW/MID 60S EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE THE RIDGE AXES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ALOFT BEGIN TO SHIFT JUST EAST OF THE FA...AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY THU. THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS DUE TO WELL-ESTABLISHED SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE FAR SE VA/NE NC COAST ON WED DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO THE EAST. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FROM MON NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT (LOWS IN THE 60S...UPPER 50S FAR WRN COUNTIES/HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S...MID-UPPER 70S BEACHES) AND THEN REBOUND TWD SEASONAL NORMALS THU/THU NIGHT (HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S...UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S BEACHES/LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S...AROUND 70 BEACHES).
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&& .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FA WITH HIGH PRS BUILDING SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND. LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWING NEXT BAND OF SHWRS MOVG SE ALONG I64 CORRIDOR WITH LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS INDCTG THESE MAKING IT INTO CNTRL VA NEXT SVRL HRS. THUS INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP IN RIC ERLY THIS MORNING. NEXT IMPULSE PROGGED TO TRACK SE AFTER 12Z AFFECTING RIC / SBY AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. GOOD CONFIDENCE BTWN THE MODELS OF THIS OCCURRING SO INCLUDED A FEW HRS OF (MVFR) RAIN AT THOSE SITES. CHALLENGING PART OF FCST WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT CIGS DROP BELOW 1K FT THRU 12Z DUE TO E-NE FLOW OFF THE OCEAN. FOG NOT THAT MUCH OF A CHALLENGE AS CIGS ARE. CIGS BARELY RISE INTO VFR RANGE AS TSCTNS SHOW PLNTY OF MOISTUTE ARND THE AREA FOR A BKN SC DECK (3-4K FT) THRU MUCH OF THE FCST PRD WITH MVFR CIGS RETURNING AFTER 00Z. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PSBL DUE TO STRATUS/FOG SUN MORNING. OTW...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEGINNING SUNDAY. && .MARINE...
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FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND. DESPITE THE ONGOING E-NE WINDS...LATEST GUIDANCE NOT AS BULLISH WITH THE WINDS THUS CREATING SOME DOUBT WHEN SCA CONDITIONS WILL START. TOUGHEST CALL WILL BE SOUTHERN CHES BAY WHERE ONLY MINIMAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MEET. MOUTH OF THE BAY WILL HAVE AN EARLIER START AND LATER FINISH TIME. SEAS (ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20 NM) ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 5 FEET THEN REMAIN THERE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO EXTENDED THE SCA HEADLINES OVR THE WATERS THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR CONTINUITY SAKE...WENT AHEAD AND HOISTED SCA HEADLINES FOR CURRITUCK SND SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS SCNDRY SURGE WILL LIKELY KEEP WINDS BTWN 15-20 KTS. FORECAST NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF A DEVELOPING (TROPICAL) LOW PROGGED TO TRACK NE BUT REMAIN EAST OF GULF STREAM WALL. SWELL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT THE MID ATLNTC BEACH AREAS.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ633. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ654. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAS NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAS LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...MPR MARINE...MPR

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