Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 260855 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 355 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY...THEN SLOWLY DRIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT AND CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S INLAND WITH CALM CONDITIONS UNDER A CLEAR SKY. FAR SE PORTIONS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S WHERE A LIGHT NW WIND HAS PERSISTED OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED MIXING AND A LIGHT SW WIND (LOCALLY NE FOR THE NRN OUTER BANKS). HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE MID/UPPER 50S INLAND UNDER A SUNNY SKY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT AS LOWS RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR SE COASTAL LOCATIONS. LIMITED MIXING AND A LIGHT SW WIND IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY. LIMITED MIXING WILL OFFSET WARMING AT 850MB SO ~10C TEMPERATURES AT THAT LEVEL WILL NOT BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO BE ABOUT 2-4F WARMER SATURDAY RANGING FROM 55-60 UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. 24/00Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS TAKEN A TREND THAT KEEPS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. RAIN REMAINS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 40S...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A LKLY POP WILL BE MAINTAINED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AND INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE, EARLY PORTION OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD/LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. A QUICK MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL WEAKEN AS IT EJECTS EAST ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. HELD ON TO CHANCE POPS ON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SHEARING SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. DEPENDING ON EXACT TIMING, THICKNESS PROFILES INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLEET MIXING IN WITH RAIN BEFORE PCPN TAPERS OFF MONDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN ZONES. GIVEN LOW POPS AND QUICK DRYING ALOFT ON MODEL CROSS SECTIONS BY THAT TIME, HAVE HELD OUT MENTION FOR NOW. QUASI-ZONAL UPPER PATTERN EAST OF THE ROCKIES ALLOW FOR DRIER WX FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SFC, COLD 1050+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH EAST OF THE ROCKIES. KEPT SILENT POPS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH ECMWF`S DEPICTION OF ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING EAST FROM WHAT WOULD THEN BE A CUTOFF (OR AT LEAST CLOSED) LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE NEXT WEEK. FOR TEMPS, HIGHS AVERAGE OUT ABOVE AVG FOR THE PERIOD, BUT GRADUALLY BEGIN TO COOL BELOW CLIMO BY NEW YEAR`S DAY AS STRONG COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS TODAY AT THE TAF SITES. SKIES SKC AND SFC WINDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KT. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25K FT AGL INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY-EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER PERSISTS THRU SAT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUN AND SUN NIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... LIGHT NWLY WINDS AOB 10 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SEAS AVG 2-3 FT. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS JUST OFFSHORE TODAY THRU SATURDAY...RESULTING IN LIGHT SLY FLOW AOB 10 KT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS SAT NIGHT AND SUN...WITH SLY WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE LIFT ALONG THE FRONT SUN INTO MON. FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE MON AS FLOW BECOMES NLY. LACK OF CAA AND RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT POST FRONTAL WILL KEEP CONDITIONS SUB-SCA MON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-4 FT MON-MON NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FROM THE WEST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/TMG LONG TERM...MAM/AJZ AVIATION...SAM MARINE...SAM

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