Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 201357 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 957 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains centered northwest of the area through the end of the week. Tropical Cyclone Jose will continue to track northeast to a position off the southern New England coast later today, then meander there through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... TS Jose continuing to circulate SSE of srn New England through the rest of the day. Far ENE locations of FA remain in wrn periphery of the storms circulation...and will have SCT-BKN SC and possible ISOLD shras (into this afternoon). Otherwise...subsidence evident on satl over the rest of the FA and will result in a mostly sunny...warm day. Moisture now over the ern OH Valley into the central mtns expected to stay WSW of the local area. Near term guidance suggests a diminishing trend and no convection reaching far WSW zones. Highs 85-90F...except l80s at the beaches. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Models suggest any evening convection to the west slides SW of the fa then dissipates after 00Z across the NC piedmont. Otw, mstly clr to pt cldy and warm tonight. Lows in the mid 60s to lwr 70s. Any convection from the lingering moisture stays west and south of the fa Thursday as high pressure continues to dominate into the weekend. Expect pt to mstly sunny days with mstly clr to pt cldy nights. Highs Thursday and Friday in the low-mid 80s except 75-80 at the beaches. Lows from the lwr 60s NW to lwr 70s SE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure builds over the ern Great Lakes and NE CONUS early next week as the remnant low (Jose) slowly circulates ESE of New England. Other than periods of SC off the ocean (by the late in the weekend-early next week) esp at the coast...expect dry wx with above normal temps. Highs Sat-Sun in the mid-upr 80s except lwr 80s at the coast. Highs Mon and Tue in the upr 70s-mid 80s. Lows in the low-mid 60s inland, upr 60s to around 70F at the coast. Extended models continue to struggle with the tropical systems into early next week. It may depend on where Jose`s low tracks which may eventually help to steer Maria. The latest GFS and to a certain point the ECMWF has Maria on a similar track to what Jose did (i.e. moving north along the eastern seaboard my mid week, but how close to the coast???). To early for anything specific, but we may be doing this all over again for Maria next week. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... TS Jose continues to lift NE away from the area today. SCT-BKN MVFR SC along the coast this morning becomes SCT CU this aftrn. WNW aob 10 KTS. Outlook: Generally VFR/dry conditions are anticipated through the weekend as high pressure builds into the region. && .MARINE... Tropical Storm Jose will continue to lift north of the waters this morning before moving off the northeast coast later today. Jose will linger off the northeast coast through the weekend before dissipating. Swells from distant Hurricane Maria will begin to impact the waters by this weekend. 7 AM EDT Update...Small Craft Advisory for the majority of the Chesapeake Bay has been allowed to expire. Winds will continue to decrease this morning as Jose moves away from the region. Also extended the SCA for the mouth of the Bay until 10 AM due to the continued potential of waves up to 4 feet. Previous Discussion: Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through 7 AM EDT for the Bay and through Wednesday evening for the Ocean. Seas currently average 6 to 8 feet nearshore and 9 to 11 feet out 20 nm. Waves over the Bay average 2 to 4 feet with waves up to 4 to 5 feet at the mouth of the Bay. Winds over the waters generally range from 15 to 20 knots with occasional gusts up to 30 knots. Marine conditions are expected to continue to improve through this morning as weak high pressure begins to build in from the northwest. Sub-SCA conditions are expected Wednesday through Thursday for a majority of the waters except for lingering 5 ft+ seas on the coastal waters. Seas will once again ramp up Friday and into the weekend as swells from distant Hurricane Maria begin to impact the region. Additional Small Craft Advisories will likely be be needed for the coastal waters by this weekend. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Tidal departures continue to avg +1.75 to +2.25 ft over the lower Bay and ocean, tapered to only about +1.0 to +1.5 ft in the upper Bay. Will continue coastal flood advisories for all areas today except a warning over the ocean side of the Lower MD Eastern Shore and both sides of the VA Eastern Shore where moderate flooding is expected in some areas. Additional minor flooding will be possible later tonight, but given the uncertainty did not extend the headlines out through this period yet. High risk for rip currents for all beaches adjacent to coastal waters continues today as swell/nearshore waves will be slow to subside. && .CLIMATE... Record highs for 9/20: RIC...95 in 2005 ORF...97 in 1895 SBY...90 in 1983 ECG...93 in 1942 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ024- 025. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>023. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ089-090-093. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ095>097-523>525. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for VAZ098. Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ099- 100. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ075-077-078-084>086. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650- 652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ634. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...ALB/MPR AVIATION...MPR MARINE...AJB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.