Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 290110 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 910 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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An upper level low slowly drops south from the Great Lakes overnight through Friday. Meanwhile, high pressure builds well north of the region and steers a moisture rich airmass into the region tonight Through Thursday night.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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Loss of heating has lowered the severe potential across the FA. SCT-BKN shras/tstms remain along-NW of a SBY-PTB-AVC line though intensity has mostly decreased past couple of hours. Will keep/let SVR Watch expire at 02Z/29. Otherwise...threat from locally heavy rain will continue overnight...especially away from the coast/most of SE VA-NE NC. Vrb clouds/mostly cloudy overnight w/ lows in the m60s well inland to l70s at the immediate coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... The upper low continues to digs swd through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Thursday into Thursday night. Meanwhile, upper ridging builds n of the Great Lakes across se Canada. At the surface, high pressure builds to around 1036mb per 28/12z GEFS over the same region. This will result in a strengthening easterly LLJ over the nrn Mid-Atlantic, potentially reaching -3 to -4 st dev at 925mb Thursday aftn, before gradually slackening Thursday night. This will continue to push a high pw airmass into the region and will result in a continued heavy rainfall threat across the nrn half of the area into Thursday night. Rainfall amounts could reach 3-5" across the far nrn tier counties bordered by 2-4". Locally higher amounts are possible. Unsettled conditions continue into Friday as the upper low lingers w of the area, but overall moisture transport should diminish, with the heavy rain threat diminishing. The upper low begins to fill and lift n by Saturday resulting in gradually improving conditions. The sky remains mostly cloudy to overcast through the period. High temperatures range from the upper 70s to low 80s, with lows generally in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Anomalous upper low will make its way through the eastern Great Lakes Sat night/Sunday and into New England by Monday where it becomes more of an open wave/trough. This feature then moves off the Northeast coast early next week. Based on the latest model guidance...have slowed the timing of pcpn exiting the FA with chc pops (30-50%) lingering across eastern areas Sat night...diminishing to slight chc pops across eastern areas by Sun eve. Will maintain dry wx Monday, then a lot of uncertainty develops by Monday night into the middle of next week. There`s the potential for the remnants of the upper low/trough to linger offshore (providing moist onshore/easterly flow locally) and also uncertainty with regards to the eventual track of TS Matthew. Will carry low end pops for now Tue-Wed. Highs through the period mainly in the 70s. Lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... An east-west stationary front will continue to remain across Virginia through the period, serving as the focus for showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rain and thunder are still ongoing at RIC, added TEMPO group to account for this. Expecting the rain/thunder to mainly impact central Virginia and portions of eastern Maryland through the first half of the night. Introduced IFR conditions for later tonight at RIC and SBY which will remain closer to the stationary front. Lower chances for MVFR across the VA tidewater and NE NC as this region will remain further away from the front. Slowly improving conditions are expected across all sites later into the day on Thursday. Outlook: Unsettled weather persists into Friday with continued chances for showers and thunderstorms due to the frontal boundary remaining nearby. Improving weather conditions are expected this weekend. && .MARINE... Late this aftn, upr/sfc low pressure was spinning ovr the OH valley with weak sfc low pressure well off the Mid Atlc/nrn Mid Atlc coast. Also, strong high pressure was cntrd ovr ern Canada. The pattern over the next few days will feature this high strengthening ovr ern Canada, ridging into New England. This will make for a persistent and rather strong E/NE flow over northern portions of the marine area. Have kept Bay zones N of New Pt Comfort in a SCA, as well as the coastal waters fm Cape Charles Lgt nwrd to Fenwick Island (beginning this evening/late tonight or Thu morning). Seas are expected to build to 6-8 ft over northern waters, while remaining around 4 ft across the south). It is possible that marginal SCA conditions could make it to NC border for 5 ft seas by Thu aftn, and that the lower Bay could also get to marginal SCA levels, (but confidence is rather low at this occurring). Seas will slowly subside later Fri thru Sat. A lighter SSE flow expected Sat leading to sub-SCA conditions with 1-2 ft waves over the Bay and 2-4 ft seas over coastal waters. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... The synoptic pattern with strong High pressure centered over eastern Canada with a slow moving boundary/sfc low pressure inland over the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic will bring persistent ENE flow to the area Thu-Fri. Strongest winds expected for the northern areas, with minor tidal/coastal flooding becoming a concern for Ocean City/Chincoteague/Wachapreague by Thu evening and Fri morning high tide cycles. Also, some potential for flooding into the Bay (both lower and mid-upper Bay) by Fri-Sat, as seas remain elevated and water is expected to struggle to exit the bay for several days. No coastal flood watches have been issued as chance for moderate- severe flooding is low, but we may eventually need to issue Coastal Flood Advisories. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...Flash Flood Watch through late Thursday night for MDZ021>023. NC...None. VA...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for VAZ048-060>062- 064-066>069-509>516. Flash Flood Watch through late Thursday night for VAZ075>078- 083-085-517>522. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Thursday to 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ654. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Thursday to 1 AM EDT Friday for ANZ630-631.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...AJB/MRD MARINE...LKB/TMG TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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