Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 291048 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 648 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST THIS MORNING...THEN CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY...AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... EARLY MRNG SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HI PRES RESPONSIBLE FOR WARM/DRY DAY TUE NOW OFF THE SE/MDATLC CSTS. THE NEXT WX FEATURE TO BRING A PD OF UNSETTLED WX...A SFC CDFNT...IS FOUND FM CNTRL NY STATE SW TO ERN TX. FAIR AMT OF CI (MSTLY TRANSPARENT) XPCD TO CONT SPREADING OVR THE FA THROUGH THE MRNG HRS. WRN AREAS OF FA WILL HAVE INCRSG/LWRG CLDNS FM THE WNW AS THE CDFNT APPROACHES...WHILE ERN PORTIONS WILL AVG OUT PSNY. A WARM START OVR THE FA W/ MOST TEMPS IN THE L/M60S...AND W/ SSWLY WNDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FNT...XPCG TEMPS TO RISE INTO/THROUGH THE 70S OVR MOST OF THE FA TDA. OVR SE VA/NE NC...READINGS LIKELY TO REACH THE L/M80S BEFORE SGFNT CLDNS ARRIVES IN THE AFTN. WRT POPS...RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF PCPN W/ AND BEHIND THE FNT IN THE MTNS ATTM. TRAILING S/W ALOFT FOUND TRACKING THROUGH LWR PORTION OF MS VLY EARLY THIS MRNG...XPCD TO INITIATE DEVELOPMENT OF PCPN ALG SRN PORTION OF THE FNT AS IT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE FA. WILL HAVE SLGT CHC POPS OVR THE PDMNT W OF I 95 BY LT MRNG...THEN INCRS POPS TO 30-40% OVR CNTRL/WRN PORTIONS OF THE FA MIDDAY INTO MID AFTN. CLOSER TO THE CST...WILL LIMIT MNLY SLGT CHC POPS BY LT IN THE DAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... CDFNT IS SLO TO PUSH TO THE ESE THROUGH THIS EVE. XPCG DECENT COVERAGE OF PCPN (50-60% POPS) OVR ESE VA/NE NC THIS EVE (UNTIL ABT 04-06Z/30)...ALONG W/ CONTD HI PERCENTAGE OF CLDNS. CLDNS TO DCRS AND LO CAA TNGT IN WAKE OF FNT AS IT PUSHES OFF THE CST. LO TEMPS RANGE FM THE L/M40S NW TO THE L/M50S OVR SE CSTL AREAS. WEAK H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW THU AND THU NIGHT. DRY AND COOLER. HI TEMPS THU IN THE L/M60S. LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE M/U30S NW TO ARND 50F OVR SE CSTL AREAS. RGN TO BE INBETWEEN FNTL BNDRY (WELL) OFF THE CST AND STRONG UPR LVL SYS DIVING SE FM THE LAKES/OH VLY ON FRI. STARTING OUT MNLY SKC THEN XCPG VRB CLDS TO PSNY BY THE AFTN. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S NW TO M60S SE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... ALL MDLS NOW COMING INTO LINE WRT TO STRONG UPR LVL LO PRES DIVING (WELL) S THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES FM (LT) FRI NGT THROUGH SAT. AT THE SAME TIME...SFC LO PRES BECOMING MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP E OF THE FA (ALG LINGERING FNTL BNDRY). WILL SPREAD INCRSG CLDNS OVR THE FA FRI NGT W/ POPS MNLY AOB 20%. BY SAT...CAA AND STRONG UVM TO CROSS THE FA RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD CLDNS AND (BY AFTN)...POPS INCRSG TO 40-60% E...TO 20-30 W. ALSO...NNE WNDS PTNTLLY INCRS TO 20-30 MPH...AGN MNLY ERN PORTION. IN WAKE OF LO PRES EXITING THE CST AND ON TO THE ENE SAT NGT INTO SUN...GUSTY NNW WNDS USHER IN COLDEST AIRMASS OF FALL SO FAR. LO TEMPS (TO NR FREEZING?) OVR PORTIONS OF FA (ESP WRN 1/3RD) WILL BE DEPENDENT OF LINGERING WNDS AND/OR CLDNS. MEANWHILE...CLDS/PCPN XPCD TO BE SLO IN EXITING ERN PORTIONS (SAT NGT). STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION DURING SUNDAY...BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD ONLY RISE TO 50-55F UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AS CAA CONTINUES. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS FALLING TO AROUND/BLO 32F FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FM THE BAY/CST...WITH AGAIN SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES (35-40F) CLOSER TO THE CST. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 55-60...WITH 60-65 BY TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN CHILLY AND RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY WITH S-SW WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND 10 KT OR LESS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. INCLUDED JUST VCSH ATTM WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON THU CREATING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI.
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&& .MARINE... SLY FLOW AVGG 10-15 KT CONTINUES THIS MORNG WITH HI PRES OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRNT APPROACHING FM THE W. THE FRNT WILL CROSS THE WTRS THIS AFTN AND EVENG. A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINDS CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA IS EXPECTED POST FRNTAL...BUT WINDS SHOULD MAINLY STAY ~15 KT WITH WEAK CAA. EXPECT 2-3 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 3-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. BROAD SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W ON THU...DISSIPATING OVR THE MID ATLANTIC ON FRI. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH N WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 KT AND 2-4 FT SEAS. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR A PERIOD OF LOW-END GALE CONDITIONS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB/MPR SHORT TERM...ALB/MPR LONG TERM...AJZ/ALB AVIATION...MAS MARINE...MAS

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