Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 301536 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1136 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MIDDAY WEATHER ANALYSIS FEATURES A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SE VA/NE NC BORDER BACK INTO FAR WESTERN VA. THE LOW STRATUS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS BEGUN TO LIFT/SCATTER OUT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DESPITE AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/HUMID AIRMASS, SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION IS RATHER WEAK TODAY, AS FORCING REMAINS WELL BACK INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND FARTHER WEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE REMOVED POP FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA, BUT HELD ONTO A SLIGHT CHC POP FOR A FEW ISOLATED PULSE TYPE CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS...MAINLY SE OF A WILLIAMSBURG TO JACKSON. OVERALL, A WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID AFTERNOON, WITH AFTN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S NORTH (ALONG WITH EASTERN SHORE AND COASTAL LOCATIONS)...WITH UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FOR SUN AND MON...UPR-LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS OUT BUT WITH SFC HI PRES REMAINING OFFSHORE WITH A PERSISTENT SLY FLOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE TO EIGHT DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY RANGING FROM NEAR 90 TO THE LWR 90S EXCEPT MID TO UPR 80S ON THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG THE COAST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...THE MAIN SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH. THIS IS DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER GETTING INTO THE TWO INCH RANGE OVER PARTS OF THE CWA. FOR SUNDAY AFTN...HAVE 30 PERCENT POPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES NORTH TO NEAR CAROLINE COUNTY AND ON THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE WITH LOWER CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS...MAINLY FROM THE GFS...OF SOME PCPN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND HAVE SLGT TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS. CHANCES FOR PCPN ARE 30 PERCENT MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY AFTN WITH 40 TO 50 PERCENT POPS OVER THE MD EASTERN SHORE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED ALONG/OFF THE SE US COAST... GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE WSW AND BECOMES ANCHORED FROM THE GULF COAST TO TN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN ABOUT 5-10 F ABOVE AVG TUE BEFORE FALLING A FEW DEGREES WED-FRI (ALTHOUGH READINGS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE ABOVE AVG THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK). AFTER A FAIRLY HIGH CHC FOR SCATTERED TSTMS MON EVENING (~40%)...TUE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING WAVE AND A COLD FRONT THAT IS SLOW TO APPROACH FROM THE NW. MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS GENLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. WILL CARRY A 20-30% CHC FOR TUE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA AND HEIGHTS ALOFT DROP AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. DID NOT GO ANY HIGHER HOWEVER...AS FRONT LOOKS TO BE WEAKENING AT THIS TIME AND BEST LIFT/FORCING REMAIN N/W OF THE LOCAL AREA. WILL CARRY 20-30% MAINLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN VA/NE NC WED AS THE BOUNDARY IS SLOW TO PUSH THROUGH. HIGHS MAINLY UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S WED. BY WED NIGHT-FRI...A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC FORECAST DOES PLACE THE SFC COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NE CONUS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...BUT THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOKS VERY STRONG SO HIGHS WILL STILL AVG 85-90 F THU/FRI (COOLEST ALONG THE COAST AND ERN SHORE). GENLY DRY /PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY BUT WILL KEEP DIURNAL AFTN/EARLY EVENING 20% POPS ACRS THE SOUTH. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE NE COAST CONTINUES TO RIDGE SWWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE RESULT IS ONSHORE FLOW AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CIGS GENERALLY BKN-OVC WITH DECKS 4-6K FT AGL...WITH A FEW LOCALES OVER THE PIEDMONT DROPPING TO MVFR. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THE EARLY MORNING...BUT SCT-BKN MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BTWN 10-12Z AT KRIC/KPHF/KECG. NO IFR ANTICIPATED. FOR TODAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NE COAST AS FLOW VEERS TO THE S-SE AOB 10 KT. MODEST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INDICATED IN BUFR SOUNDINGS WILL RESULTING IN A SCT-LOCALLY BROKEN 4-6K FT AGL DECK THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS BY LATE TODAY-THIS EVENING. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXISTS ACROSS SRN VA...INCLUDING KRIC/KORF/KECG. OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR AFTN/EVENING TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE, SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL EXIST EACH DAY WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE. && .MARINE... ONSHORE FLOW AVERAGING 10 KT PERSISTS OVER THE WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE NE COAST. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT WITH SEAS 2-3 FT. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NE COAST TODAY AS FLOW VEERS TO THE S-SE OVER THE WATER. GRADIENT STRENGTHENS TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PUSH WINDS INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE...REMAINING SUB-SCA. WITH RELATIVELY WARM WATERS...COULD SEE SOME DIURNAL EFFECTS WITH S-SE FLOW CHANNELING UP THE BAY TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUN NIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT (AND GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT). HOWEVER...HEADLINES NOT ANTICIPATED. SEAS REMAIN GENERALLY 2-3 FT...BUT PERSISTENT S-SE FLOW COULD PUSH SEAS TO 4 FT LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE BUILDING TO 3-4 FT ALL COASTAL ZONES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT...BUT MAY BUILD TO 2-3 FT TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUN NIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. SEAS AVG 2-4 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. NEXT COLD FRONT PROGGED TO REACH THE WATERS TUES NIGHT-WEDS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM/LSA SHORT TERM...LSA LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...SAM MARINE...SAM

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