-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251516
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1116 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY AND
COOL CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MEMORIAL DAY AND LAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH BECOMES SITUATED OFF THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN MAINE...AS THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW SPINS OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/SE NY STATE. FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE MCS SITUATED
OVER THE MID MS VALLEY...BUT FOR THE LOCAL AREA THIS WILL DO
LITTLE MORE THAN CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOME HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE CWA
THROUGH THE AFTN HRS (AS WELL AS THE STRONG NW FLOW LEADING TO SOME WAVE
CLOUDS IN THE THE LEE OF THE MTNS). QUITE COOL FOR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
WITH 11 AM OBS GENLY BETWEEN 55 AND 60 DEGREES EVEN UNDER FULL
SUN. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY...BREEZY NW FLOW
WITH GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH (HIGHEST NE). SKIES AVG OUT PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS MAINLY 65-70...ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVG.

ADDED A CLIMATE SECTION BELOW AS WE MAY BE CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS
IN A FEW SPOTS SUN MORNING (ALSO SET A RECORD LOW THIS MORNING AT
ECG).
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
UPPER PATTERN DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
TROUGH IN BOTH THE WEST AND EAST WITH RIDGING OVER THE CTRL
CONUS. UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL BE SLO TO TRACK ENE THROUGH SRN/ERN
NEW ENG TNGT THROUGH SUN. DEEP LYRD NWLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN
DRY/COOL CONDS THROUGH SUN NGT. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
40S INLAND/L50S RIGHT AT THE CST TNGT. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE U60S TO
M70S. LO TEMPS SUN NGT FM THE 40S TO L50S.

MEANWHILE...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF STATES WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT NWD LATE SUN AND MON WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...UPR
LVL RIDGE WILL FINALLY PROGRESS EWD. AS A RESULT...A WARMING
TREND WILL COMMENCE MON. AS THE RIDGE PROGRESSES EWD...A
WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WILL INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY THEN EXPECTED TO FORM INTO A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. MCS WILL ROUND THE RIDGE...BUT WILL DIE OUT
BEFORE REACHING THE MDATLC. BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD
MON NGT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE AGAIN GONE CLOSE TO A ECMWF/HPC(WPC) BLEND FOR THE MIDWEEK TIME
FRAME. HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME SHRAS/ISO T LATER TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA, WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF
FVX/RIC/WAL LINE.

THE FRONT SHUNTS NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK. MEANWHILE, MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS AS SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
RESULTANT BERMUDA HIGH/SUMMER-LIKE SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
TEMPS (AND HUMIDITY VALUES) FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK. RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL PRIMARILY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN, WITH LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY AND
INCREASINGLY MUGGY CONDITIONS BY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IMPRESSIVE UPR TROF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR CURRENTLY CROSSING
AREA...AND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. THIS WILL PROVIDE
FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR WITH GENERALLY SKC. AT 06Z...STILL
BKN/OVC ALTO CU ACROSS THE DELMARVA...WHICH SHOULD CLEAR IN THE
NEXT 2-4 HOURS. BIGGEST ISSUE NEXT 24 HOURS IS WIND. MOST
TERMINALS SHOULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE DURING THE DAY
TODAY...THEN DIMINISH AFTER 00Z SUN. WINDS SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY
LESS ON SUNDAY...ALTHO SOME GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE.

NEXT CHC FOR CEILING/VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LATER MON-TUE AS A
WARM FRONT BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEPENING STORM JUST EAST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE LIFTING
NEWD THIS WEEKEND. WINDS AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE STG
SCA RANGE TODAY...WITH GUSTS ON THE BAY/NRN COASTAL WATERS AROUND 30
KTS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS LOW MOVES AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SUNDAY WILL BE BETTER THAN TODAY FROM A
BOATING PERSPECTIVE...WITH WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 15 KT ON THE
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND...AND 20 KT ON THE OCEAN. HOWEVER...NW DIRECTION
SHOULD STILL KEEP CONDITIONS ON THE CHOPPHY SIDE...MAKING CONDITIONS
LESS THAN OPTIMAL. MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS MAINLY 10KT OR LESS.

HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE SE COAST FROM TUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF S/SW WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE MARINE AREA. DURING MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME...WINDS
ON THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...AND 10 TO
20 KT ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SET A RECORD LOW AT ELIZABETH CITY NC THIS MORNING AT 43 F (OLD
RECORD HAD BEEN 47). MAY COME CLOSE TO CHALLENGING A FEW RECORD
LOWS AGAIN SUNDAY...RECORD LOWS FOR MAY 26TH ARE LISTED BELOW:

.RICHMOND............42 (1925)
.NORFOLK.............47 (1967)
.SALISBURY MD........39 (1917)
.ELIZABETH CITY NC...44 (1967)
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ654-656-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...WRS
CLIMATE...AKQ