Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 212011 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 311 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak low pressure tracks northeast off the Mid Atlantic coast late tonight and Wednesday. Meanwhile, a cold front crosses the area late tonight then moves off the coast Wednesday morning. High pressure builds back into the region Wednesday afternoon through Friday as low pressure lingers off the southeast coast. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Latest MSAS has a trof along the Carolina coast with low pressure developing east of Jacksonville, Fla. Meanwhile, a cold front was moving east across the upr mid west. 12Z models continue to struggle with the moisture fields tonight as the low moves ne along the Mid Atlantic coast and cold front approaching from the west. Went with a model blend where the best lift progged along and east of the I95 corridor between 06Z-12Z. Given the trends of the latest high res models, kept it dry through 00Z, with isltd pops across NC zones through 03Z. A ribbon of moisture/lift progged to quickly ride NE after 03Z resulting in pcpn breaking out/developing by late evening then pushing east through the overnight hours. Still only expecting QPF amounts less than one quarter inch. However, confidence high enough that at least some measurable pcpn falls across the east. Thus, increased pops to likely/categorical from the I95 corridor on east, chc pops across the west. Lows mid 40s NW to mid 50s ssern coast areas. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Low pres tracks across the VACAPES early Wed with the cold front moving offshore around 12Z. Any lingering shwrs progged to move offshore around 15Z. Column begins to dry out west to east Wed as high pres builds in from the west. Mstly sunny west, becoming mstly sunny east. Lagging CAA and sunshine allows temps to rise into the mid 50s north to lwr 60s south. High pressure approaches from the west Wed night, then becomes centered across the region Thurs through Fri. This high keeps the moisture coming off of Fla mainly south of HAT Thurs before moving farther offshore Thurs night and Fri. Mostly clr to pt cldy Wed nite. Lows upr 20s-upr 30s. Pt to mstly sunny Thurs. Highs mid 40s north-lwr 50s south. Mstly clr Thu night. Lows upr 20s-upr 30s. Mstly sunny and a little milder Fri. Highs lwr-mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The next cold front crosses the area late Sat. Not much in the way of moisture to work with but will carry slght chc pops with it Sat night per a GFS soln. ECMWF suggests a dry fropa. Highs in the upr 50s-lwr 60s. Lows in the mid 30s-lwr 40s. Dry and colder early next week as a 1025mb Canadian high slowly moves se across the region. Highs Sun mid 40s-lwr 50s. Lows Sun night mid 20s-lwr 30s. Coldest day Mon with highs low to mid 40s. Lows Mon night mid 20s-lwr 30s. Highs Tue in the upr 40s-lwr 50s. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions to start the forecast period as high/mid level clouds increase through 00Z. Latest guidance suggests CIGs continue to lower (but still remain avove 3k FT) across the region this evening with pcpn holding off until 03Z. Moisture ahead of a cold front will combine with low pressure moving ne along the coast to produce MVFR CIGS/VSBYS in shwrs between 06Z-14Z, pushing offshore around 15Z. Some of the guidance is showing Lcl IFR CIGS around 12Z but confidence not high enough that will occur. Drying of the column will result in decreasing clouds through the day with all TAF sites becoming VFR by 18Z. The SSW winds today at 10-15kts shift to the NNW behind the cold frontal passage Wed morning. OUTLOOK... VFR conditions return for the rest of the week as high pressure builds into the region from the west. && .MARINE... High pressure over the area this morning will slide offshore by midday and move further out to sea this afternoon. Expect winds to remain S-SW 10 to 15 kt (15-20 kt over nrn coastal waters) thru today. Seas 2 ft south and 2-4 ft north; waves 1-3 ft. A canadian low pressure system will drag a cold front through the OH Valley late today, approaching the waters Wed morning. Also, low pressure will develop off the SE coast tonight, then lifts NE just off the Mid Atlc coast Wed morning into Wed aftn. Expect S-SW winds 5-15 kt tonight to become WNW around daybreak Wed. Winds then increase to 15- 25 kt all waters by late Wed morning/afternoon (highest southern coastal waters where gusts may reach 30 kt). Winds become N and gradually diminish Wed night as cool high pressure builds into the region. SCAs will likely be needed for most, if not all, of the marine area for Wed/Wed night. After coordination with neighboring offices, plan to hold off on issuance of SCA this morning as start time is still 3rd period. Seas expected to reach 5-7 ft; waves 3-4 ft on Wed. Sub-SCA conditions then expected Thanksgiving Day and Friday with high pressure nearby. && .EQUIPMENT... KDOX remains down. Parts are on order and are expected to arrive Wed. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ633-634. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Thursday for ANZ630>632-638. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday for ANZ650-652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...MPR MARINE...TMG

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