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358
FXUS61 KAKQ 021801
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
201 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue to push into central Virginia this
morning, and will be very slow to push through southeast Virginia
and northeast North Carolina late this afternoon into this evening.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected today, lingering
through the evening across southeast zones. Mainly dry conditions
are expected late in the week into next weekend as high pressure
brings lower humidity to the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1000 AM EDT Wednesday...

-  A Flood Watch has been issued to focus on urban portions of
   SE VA where the Flash Flood Risk will be greatest today.

- Localized flooding from heavy rainfall will be possible over
  the remainder of the area through most of the afternoon (or
  into the evening in NC) as well.

Late morning WX analysis indicates a mid-upper level trough was
slowly advancing eastward from the OH/TN Valley, and pushing to
the Appalachians. At the surface, a cold front extends from
eastern Canada through New England, and SSW into central
portions of the FA. The local area remains in a moisture-rich
airmass with latest PW values analyzed at or above 2.00" across
most of the CWA, with slightly lower amounts to the SE. Slow-
moving showers, with a few embedded lighting strikes, are
producing very efficient rainfall rates across portions of srn
VA, the Northern Neck, and MD Eastern Shore. Temperatures are
generally in the low-mid 70s across the northern half of the
area where cloud cover is thick and overcast, with upper 70s to
lower 80s across the SE where breaks in the cloud deck are more
prevalent.

With the approaching upper trough axis, PWAT values > 2.00",
and the slow-moving nature of the front, there appears to be
ample support for heavy rain across the SE half of the area
later today, especially during the afternoon and early evening
hrs. The latest 02/00z HREF has a nearly similar footprint of
30- 50% neighborhood probs for 3"/3 hr, focused across far SE VA
and NE NC. WPC has maintained the Slight ERO across SE VA and
NE NC. Given this, decided to raise a Flood Watch for the more
urbanized zones in SE VA where the flash flood risk will be
highest (due much lower FFG values). The flow aloft and the low
level jet are nearly identical today, SW at 15-25kt, suggesting
some potential for backbuilding storms. In addition, there will
likely be some modest heating with lower morning PoPs, from
southside Hampton Roads into NE NC. This could allow for some
localized strong wind gusts given moisture laden updrafts in a
high PW airmass. While SPC did not outlook the area, mainly due
to relatively weak lapse rates and uncertainty in the duration
of morning heating, there still could be an isolated strong
storm or two this afternoon. The latest HRRR shows some modest
low- level shear and hodograph curvature across SE VA/NE NC in
the afternoon/early evening (0-1 km SRH around 50 m2/s2).
Combined with the lower LCLs from the moisture- rich environment
and elevated 0-3km MLCAPE, a non- zero tornado threat could
materialize, but will note that confidence in this scenario is
low.

High temperatures will mostly be in the low-mid 80s today (some
areas could potentially not get out of the upper 70s) with PoPs
ranging from 40-60% N to 70-90% SE with the front lingering
over the local area. Overall, NW zones will tend to see
diminishing PoPs by late aftn as drier air moves in, and would
rise into the 80s late in the day, while far SE zones could
briefly surge well into the 80s this morning then fall into the
70s with the widespread aftn convection. The models are in
decent agreement that the front pushes SE of the region tonight,
allowing for diminishing PoPs through the evening and mainly dry
conditions after midnight except perhaps right along the coast
in the SE through ~06Z. Lows tonight will range from the mid-
upper 60s W/NW to the lower 70s SE. Patchy fog is possible after
midnight, mainly along and W of I-95.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Turning drier behind the front Thursday.

- Dry and noticeably less humid for the Fourth of July holiday.

A lingering shower or storm or two is possible across NE NC
Thursday afternoon near the decaying boundary. A secondary cold
front also approaches from the N Thursday. However, PoPs are
generally < 15% in other locations given a drier airmass. High
temperatures return to the upper 80s to lower 90s, with heat
indices mainly in the mid 90s as dewpoints drop into the upper
60s to lower 70s Thursday. Mostly clear with lows Thursday
night dropping into the mid to upper 60s well inland to the low
70s near the coast.

A pleasant and dry, but still warm, Fourth of July holiday looks to
be in store as an upper trough axis slides through and high pressure
builds to our N. Highs temperatures range from the mid/upper
80s to around 90 F, with sunny to mostly sunny skies and light
onshore flow. Dew points range through the 60s (potentially down
into the upper 50s at peak heating across the northern 1/2 of
the CWA), so it should feel quite comfortable. Mainly clear
friday night with lows mostly ranging through the 60s (lower 70s
SE coast).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 420 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly dry through the upcoming weekend, with lower dew pts
  keeping conditions relatively comfortable.

- Becoming increasingly humid by next week with highs in the
  90s.

Upper level ridging will start to build from the mid MS Valley
east into the local area over the weekend, as a weak upper level
trough organizes over the eastern Gulf and Florida. Highs trend
back toward the 90s, but dewpoints will be slower to recover
Saturday and mainly dry conditions are expected for the
Independence Day holiday weekend. A gradual increase in humidity
starts Sunday, and especially Monday-Tuesday along with chances
of diurnal showers/tstms well in advance of another cold front
moving into the Great Lakes. The other uncertainty is with
respect to the upper low across the Gulf and SE CONUS. The
latest GFS/ECMWF bring a bit of the upper trough axis north to
the coastal Carolinas as early as Sunday and linger it there
early next week. Have added a slight chc for aftn showers/tstms
on Sunday into the forecast for NE NC. The latest NHC forecast
has increased the probability for a tropical or subtropical system
to 40%, though other than increasing rain chances next week,
any impacts would remain well S of the local area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday...

Degraded flying weather continues this afternoon with conditions
highly variable over time as bouts of rain and lower CIGs move
through ahead of a weak cold front. Highly efficient rain-
producing showers have lowered VSBY extensively when they pass
over a terminal. Will handle lingering/brief IFR CIGs at SBY and
RIC with TEMPO groups. Some potential for fog later tonight
here as well. Latest guidance has trended toward fewer
thunderstorms at ORF/PHF this afternoon. Not so for ECG where
deeper instability lingers into the late afternoon or early
evening. MVFR CIGs are likely at PHF and ORF tonight with IFR
hanging on near ECG toward sunrise. Winds are generally light
and variable and should remain that way through much of the TAF
period, becoming WNW 5-10 kt by mid morning Thursday.

Outlook: VFR conditions return Thursday through Sunday as drier air
builds into the region behind the cold front.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs remain in effect through the early morning hours.

- Benign marine conditions are expected to return by this afternoon
and last through the extended period.

Early morning analysis shows a 1020mb high pressure over Bermuda and
a stalled out cold front over western Virginia. Ahead of the cold
front winds continue to remain out of the SW. Winds remain between
10 to 15 kt across the bay and water with some gusts upwards of 20
kt. In addition to the SW winds this morning, some showers and
thunderstorms continue to make their way across the waters. These
Showers and thunderstorms continue to weaken as instability is
depleted across the area. Waves this morning are between 2 to 3
ft across the bay and 4 to 5 ft across the ocean. With the winds
still gusting to 20 kt across the bay and 5ft seas across the ocean
SCA will continue to remain in effect through the early morning
hours today. If real time observations continue to show a decrease
in winds and waves there is potential that the SCA maybe canceled
earlier. By this afternoon, the cold front will again to propagate
eastward across the waters bringing a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. These thunderstorms could potentially bring gusty
winds and elevated seas. The stronger storms will be handled with
SMW. Winds this afternoon will shift from the SW to WNW between 5 to
10 kt with gusts upwards of 15 kt. Waves will also decrease through
the afternoon with 1 to 2 ft seas in the bay and 2 to 3 ft seas in
the ocean. By late this evening and into tonight high pressure will
build back over the area bringing benign marine conditions to the
local waters. These conditions as of now are expected to last
through the extended period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
June 2025 ranked in the Top 10 Warmest at all 4 Long term
Climate stations:

* Site: Avg Temp (Rank)

- RIC: 78.1 (5th warmest)
- ORF: 78.8 (7th warmest)
- SBY: 75.6 (9th warmest)
- ECG: 78.6 (10th warmest)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ093-095>098-524-
     525.
MARINE...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/SW
SHORT TERM...LKB/SW
LONG TERM...LKB/SW
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...HET/SW
CLIMATE...