Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 241508 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1108 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front crosses the local area today...becoming stalled over the Carolinas for Sunday and Monday. High pressure builds into the local area behind the front tonight through midweek.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Late morning analysis features surface cold front from Eastern New England down into the Mid-Atlantic Region. At 15z, the front is just west of the local area. Gradual drying/lowering of dewpoints expected later this morning into the afternoon over at least NW 1/2 of FA. Drying likely to be delayed near the coast/over SE VA-NE NC until tonight/early Sunday as the cold front slows down over that area late today. Forecast will average out mostly sunny north to partly sunny south. CAMs are once again hinting at isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms flaring up across the western Carolinas into the foothills of western Virginia by early afternoon...reaching into southern sections of the area (mainly US-460 and south) by late afternoon into tonight. Enough instability ahead of the front to include iso-sct t-storm mention in these areas, but have pushed it a little later into the afternoon and evening per the latest NAM 3km Nest and SPC- WRF. After our warm start (highs in the mid 70s to low 80s), expect a hot and still moderately humid day with afternoon highs in the u80s to lower 90s...even at most beaches. Again, slightly cooler and more comfortable over far NW sections of the area.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... Cooler, drier air filters in from the northwest behind the front for tonight and Sunday...resulting in a pleasant end to the weekend wx-wise. Lows tonight in the l60 NW...m-u60s inland...l70s SE. Dewpoints will lower into the l60s NW to l70s far SE. Any convection SE wanes tonight...w/ any lingering spotty rain along the Albemarle Sound coming to an end Sun morning. Meanwhile...the rest of the local area will remain dry. A much more comfortable afternoon and evening Sun...w/ highs in the m-u80s (l80s beaches)...and dewpoints in the u50s NW to m60s SE. Comfortable wx Sun night with lows in the u50s NW to m-u60s SE. Secondary cold front approaches from the WNW Mon...entering the (NW portions of the) local area in the evening. Will result in conditions becoming partly cloudy...and would not rule ISOLD SHRAs far N late in the day. Highs in the l80s (u70s at the beaches). && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The secondary cold front crosses the area Mon night. Isolated SHRAs possible near the coast (esp on the eastern shore)...otherwise the fropa should be dry due to a lack of significant moisture. Cooler temps then for Tue with highs only in the mid/upr 70s most areas. Sfc high pres builds directly over the area Tue night/Wed behind a mid- level trough pushing offshore. Dry again for Thu as the high slides offshore allowing for S/SW to develop across the Mid Atlc and temps to max out in the mid 80s. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Periods of MVFR cigs through mid morning...except at RIC w/ gusty SW winds to 30-35 kt...becoming less gusty by late morning into the afternoon. The remnant circulation of Cindy exiting the NJ coast this morning...its associated/trailing cold front crosses the local area today/this evening. Narrow bands of SHRAs w/ brief downpours to E of SBY by 13Z. The cold front to settle across SE VA-NE NC this evening...w/ possible ISOLD-SCT SHRAs or tstms after 21-23Z/24 invof ORF/ECG. With such lo prob attm...will only carry VCSH and BKN CIGS aoa 5kft for now. VFR conditions Sun-early next week as high pressure builds back into the region. && .MARINE... No changes to SCA headlines this morning. Gusty SW winds 15-25kt w/ gusts to 30kt will continue thru mid/late morning before diminishing to 10-15 kt this afternoon. Seas 3-4ft currently will build to 4-5 ft south/5-6 ft north around daybreak, then gradually subside back below 5 ft by late morning south and later this afternoon north. An extended period of benign marine conditions is then expected from tonight through the middle of next week. Winds become N/NW around 10 kt behind a cold front tonight/Sunday morning, then variable less than 10 kt later Sunday into Monday. Waves 1-2 ft over the Bay and 2-3 ft seas over coastal waters. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650- 652.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM LONG TERM...ALB/MAS AVIATION...ALB MARINE...JDM

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