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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241508
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1108 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front crosses the local area today...becoming stalled
over the Carolinas for Sunday and Monday. High pressure builds
into the local area behind the front tonight through midweek.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

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Late morning analysis features surface cold front from Eastern
New England down into the Mid-Atlantic Region. At 15z, the front
is just west of the local area. Gradual drying/lowering of
dewpoints expected later this morning into the afternoon over
at least NW 1/2 of FA. Drying likely to be delayed near the
coast/over SE VA-NE NC until tonight/early Sunday as the cold
front slows down over that area late today.

Forecast will average out mostly sunny north to partly sunny
south. CAMs are once again hinting at isolated to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms flaring up across the
western Carolinas into the foothills of western Virginia by
early afternoon...reaching into southern sections of the area
(mainly US-460 and south) by late afternoon into tonight.
Enough instability ahead of the front to include iso-sct t-storm
mention in these areas, but have pushed it a little later into
the afternoon and evening per the latest NAM 3km Nest and SPC-
WRF. After our warm start (highs in the mid 70s to low 80s),
expect a hot and still moderately humid day with afternoon highs
in the u80s to lower 90s...even at most beaches. Again,
slightly cooler and more comfortable over far NW sections of the
area.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Cooler, drier air filters in from the northwest behind the
front for tonight and Sunday...resulting in a pleasant end to
the weekend wx-wise. Lows tonight in the l60 NW...m-u60s
inland...l70s SE. Dewpoints will lower into the l60s NW to
l70s far SE. Any convection SE wanes tonight...w/ any lingering
spotty rain along the Albemarle Sound coming to an end Sun
morning. Meanwhile...the rest of the local area will remain dry.
A much more comfortable afternoon and evening Sun...w/ highs in
the m-u80s (l80s beaches)...and dewpoints in the u50s NW to
m60s SE. Comfortable wx Sun night with lows in the u50s NW to
m-u60s SE.

Secondary cold front approaches from the WNW Mon...entering the
(NW portions of the) local area in the evening. Will result in
conditions becoming partly cloudy...and would not rule ISOLD
SHRAs far N late in the day. Highs in the l80s (u70s at the
beaches).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The secondary cold front crosses the area Mon night. Isolated SHRAs
possible near the coast (esp on the eastern shore)...otherwise
the fropa should be dry due to a lack of significant moisture.
Cooler temps then for Tue with highs only in the mid/upr 70s
most areas. Sfc high pres builds directly over the area Tue
night/Wed behind a mid- level trough pushing offshore. Dry again
for Thu as the high slides offshore allowing for S/SW to
develop across the Mid Atlc and temps to max out in the mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Periods of MVFR cigs through mid morning...except at RIC w/
gusty SW winds to 30-35 kt...becoming less gusty by late morning
into the afternoon. The remnant circulation of Cindy exiting the
NJ coast this morning...its associated/trailing cold front
crosses the local area today/this evening. Narrow bands of SHRAs
w/ brief downpours to E of SBY by 13Z.

The cold front to settle across SE VA-NE NC this evening...w/
possible ISOLD-SCT SHRAs or tstms after 21-23Z/24 invof
ORF/ECG. With such lo prob attm...will only carry VCSH and BKN
CIGS aoa 5kft for now. VFR conditions Sun-early next week as
high pressure builds back into the region.

&&

.MARINE...
No changes to SCA headlines this morning. Gusty SW winds 15-25kt
w/ gusts to 30kt will continue thru mid/late morning before
diminishing to 10-15 kt this afternoon. Seas 3-4ft currently will
build to 4-5 ft south/5-6 ft north around daybreak, then gradually
subside back below 5 ft by late morning south and later this
afternoon north. An extended period of benign marine conditions is
then expected from tonight through the middle of next week. Winds
become N/NW around 10 kt behind a cold front tonight/Sunday morning,
then variable less than 10 kt later Sunday into Monday. Waves 1-2 ft
over the Bay and 2-3 ft seas over coastal waters.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for
     ANZ630>632-634-654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650-
     652.
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&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM
LONG TERM...ALB/MAS
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...JDM