Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 210111 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 911 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will stall over the Carolinas tonight into Sunday. This front will lift back north as a warm front Sunday night. Another cold front is expected to cross the Mid Atlantic region Monday into Monday night, with low pressure tracking along the boundary Tuesday into Tuesday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Quick update to reflect latest Radar/Sat trends. Some isolated showers possible the next few hours over far SW zones mainly SW of Farmville (W Prince Edward/Mecklenburg/Lunenburg Counties). Rain chances drop off even out in these areas by 02-04z and through the overnight as front slips farther south and drier air drops across the area. Becoming partly to mostly cloudy overnight with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. Previous Valid Discussion... The current surface analysis depicts the leading edge of a backdoor cold front situated from the SW VA piedmont to Ern NC. The wind has shifted to NE across the local area. However, temperatures remain in the low/mid 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s across the SW corner of the area. 0-1km MLCAPE values are 1000-1500 J/kg across the SW piedmont counties and interior NE NC. A few showers/tstms could develop through early evening across these locations as drier air pushes in from the NE but confidence is diminishing. High pressure prevails overnight. Partial clearing is possible this evening, with increasing clouds across the W late. Lows range from the low/mid 50s N to around 60 S. High pressure remains situated NE of the area Sunday as the front remains stalled across the Carolinas. Moisture continues to increase in the 950-850mb layer and this should result in mostly cloudy to overcast conditions across much of the region, although the MD Ern Shore could remain partly sunny through midday. High temperatures will be cool ranging from the mid 60s to around 70 across much of the area, with low 70s across far SE VA/NE NC. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The aforementioned front lifts N as a warm front Sunday night. Moisture and lift aloft are limited Sunday evening, with PoPs aob 20% across the E, and increasing to 20-40% over the Piedmont. Moisture advection and lift increase overnight with PoPs rising to high chc/likely along and NW of an AVC-RIC-XSA line with 20-40% farther E. Lows range from the 50s NE to the 60s elsewhere under a mostly cloudy to overcast sky. Monday continues to look unsettled with a cold front crossing the area during the day, then slowing down and stalling over SE VA/NE NC Monday night. There is a decent upper jet over the Ern Great Lakes and shortwave energy supporting a 60-70% PoP, mainly across the Piedmont I-95 corridor through midday, and then shifting toward the coast during the aftn and early evening. Instability is limited (250- 1000 J/kg of 0-1km MLCAPE) and 0-6km bulk shear is generally less than 25kt, so any threat of severe tstms is very minimal. However, locally heavy rain is possible with the combination of decent forcing and pw values of +1-2 st dev. High temperatures range from the mid 70s W to lower 80s SE. The front lingers near the coast Monday night with some drying aloft behind it. However, the NAM/GFS each show some lift lingering overnight. Likely pops E through midnight, with chc pops west during the evening. PoPs of 20% N and W to 40% SE overnight with some lingering lift. Lows range from the mid 50s NW to the Mid 60s SE. The flow aloft remains SW Tuesday, with another wave lifting newd across the Carolinas during the aftn, with deep layer moisture returning. PoPs range from 20% across the far N to 30-50% S through midday, with 30-50% N to 60-70% S during the aftn. High temperatures Tuesday have been trended downward especially from the Piedmont the the Ern Shore due to the combination of NE flow, cloud cover, and an increasing chc of rain. The current high temperature forecast shows generally low/mid 70s from the Piedmont to the Ern Shore, with mid/upper 70s for SE VA/NE NC. However, there is a potential that highs could hold in the 60s from the Piedmont to the Ern Shore with clouds/pcpn. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Long term period starts off wet with near to slightly below normal temps. Forecast remains complicated mid to late week by a an upr- level trough across the eastern CONUS...with transient shortwave troughs and sfc lows passing up the Eastern Seaboard. Pattern therefore favors frequent chances for rain, with much uncertainty over the timing. For now...will forecast 50-60% PoPs Tue Night and Wed, dropping to 40-50% Wed night and Thu. Lower chance into Fri as the upper-level trough starts pulling off to the east. As for temps, highs will be in the mid/upr 70s Wed through Fri, with low temps in the mid 50s to mid 60s. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High pressure to the north and northeast of the area with a ridge extending south into inland Virginia will influence the weather over the TAF sites during the 00Z TAF period. A cold front over North Carolina will move to the northeast through the TAF sites as a warm front late Sunday. A moist northeast to east flow will continue through Sunday. Stratus was present over southeast portions of the area and is expected to slowly spread to Richmond overnight and continue Sunday. Current trends keep IFR ceilings going at ECG and maintained that condition through 14Z Sunday. There is some degree of drying advecting from the northeast and this should keep ORF and PHF from going IFR. SBY is expected to remain VFR. SREF probabilities for MVFR or lower visibilities are quite low and kept them at 7 miles. Most of the gusts from the northeast and east should drop out of the METARs this evening but sustained winds at around 10 knots are expected Sunday. OUTLOOK...A cold front approaches from the west Sunday night and moves through the Mid Atlantic States Monday. This will bring a chance for showers Sunday night with showers and thunderstorms likely by Monday afternoon. MVFR/IFR conditions are indicated for Sunday night through mid morning Monday and during heavier precipitation during the rest of Monday into Monday night. Unsettled weather is expected to continue Tuesday through Thursday with a series of frontal passages and low pressure systems affecting the Mid Atlantic region. Periods of deteriorating conditions are possible.
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&& .MARINE... Latest sfc analysis shows a cold front dropping south of the wtrs with NE flow behind the front. SCA conditions will continue tonight with 15-20 kt winds over the Bay/Sound/Lwr James and 4-6 ft seas over coastal wtrs. Winds decrease then into Sun as the pres gradient relaxes and high pres builds along the New England coast. Seas however will remain aoa 5 ft into the aftn due to prolonged onshore flow. Winds become S then SW on Mon ahead of the next frontal system approaching from the west. The front crosses the area Mon night into Tue morning. Not much change in airmass behind this front so expect winds to remain below SCA levels early next week. Another front affects the region mid week. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630-631-633- 638. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/LKB NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...LSA MARINE...MAS

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