Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KAKQ 222321
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
721 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016
High pressure resides over the Mid Atlantic Region tonight through
mid week...bringing in a drier and more seasonable airmass to the
area. High pressure then slides offshore later in the week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Sfc high pressure builds into the region the rest of today and
slides overhead tonight. Limited few-sct cumulus fields this
afternoon will dissipate btwn 500-700 PM with the loss of daytime
heating. Cooler/comfortable temps tonight with lows in the
upper 50s to lower 60s NW to mid-upper 60s SE (70-74 beaches) and
dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s to lower 60s (mid 60s beaches).
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sfc ridge axis becomes oriented along the Mid Atlantic coastline
by Tue afternoon and fluctuates inland at times through Wed.
Meanwhile, mid-upper level ridging gradually amplifies over the
area, and onshore/NE-E winds averaging 10 mph will persist at the
immediate coast with highest speeds around 15 mph anticipated from
Wachapreague, VA to Duck, NC during this timeframe. The overall
forecast will be dry with diurnal cumulus developing (mainly
inland) each afternoon. Isolated showers/storms may be possible
closer to Albemarle Sound Wed afternoon (per hi-res model
solutions) with the potential for increasing clouds in srn NE NC
as Wed progresses. However, will limit POPs to 10% since the
available moisture layer attm is very shallow. Temperatures will
be at to slightly below normal with dewpoints generally around
60F. Highs Tue in the low-mid 80s. Lows Tue night in the
upper 50s to lower 60s inland (upper 60s to around 70F beaches).
Slightly warmer Wed with highs in the mid 80s inland...lower 80s
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The quiet weather will continue into the end of the week and into
the weekend as upper ridging builds across the eastern US. This will
allow the westerlies to remain well north of the area for the next
week with a gradual warming trend. There is a hint of a disturbance
in the mean flow moving into the northeastern states Thu night. The
surface reflection of this disturbance may allow for an isolated
shower or storm to move off the mountains during the afternoon.
However, given the very dry anticendent airmass and general upper
level anti-cyclonic flow, will keep any chances for precipitation
out of the forecast at this time. Gradually through the weekend into
Monday, heat and humidity returns which may allow for sea breeze
type thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon/evening hours.
However, once again given the strongly anticylonic flow aloft have
opted to keep out all mention of precipitation through Monday as
Overall, temperatures and humidity will be slow to rise through the
weekend into early next week. Am expecting temperatures to be back
above normal by the end of the work week with readings in the
.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Vfr through the 00z taf period. Sfc hi pressure builds into and
over the Mid Atlantic Tue before sliding offshore Wed into Thu.
Winds will be light and vrb/nely tngt into tue. Dry and vfr
conditions are expected throughout the week with high pressure in
the vicinity, and no chance of rain through the end of the week.
-- End Changed Discussion --
Winds and waves are slowly diminishing this afternoon as the surface
high builds across the area. Will go ahead and cancel the SCA over
the southern waters at 4pm with waves below 4 ft. Otherwise, high
pressure will remain over the middle Atlantic through Wednesday,
then slowly move offshore through the end of the week. This will
keep persistant northerly winds of 15 kt tonight becoming NE on
Tuesday. As the high shifts offshore, the winds will gradually
become light then shift southerly by Friday.
Due to an azimuth motor failure, the KAKQ 88D radar will be out
of service through possibly Tuesday afternoon before a return to
service. Technicians will begin repairs first thing Tuesday