Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 050210 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1010 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE SE OF CAPE COD...WITH A TRAILING BOUNDARY EXTENDING SW BACK INTO ERN/SRN VA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALOFT...SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EXISTS...WITH ONE UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA...AND ANOTHER LAGGING WELL OFF TO OUR SW ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES. THE CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING OFF THE VA ERN SHORE...WITH ISO-SCT ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND UPPER LEVEL RRQ FORCING FROM 250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET. OVERALL...RADAR DATA SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND...AND RAP/HRRR SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. GIVEN THIS...POPS HAVE BEEN TRENDED DOWN OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VARIABLY CLOUDY NW TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SE. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER EARLY SUN...THEN WILL MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATER SUN INTO MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY RELATING TO TIMING AND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE. THE FAVORED AREA OF ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE SUN. HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S. NAM/GFS/ECMWF INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL PUSH INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUN EVENING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD N/NE OVERNIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN ACRS MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALONG THE COAST). MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS- MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N/W AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER BY TUE...WITH JUST 20-3% POPS MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 F. ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE (MOST OF IT OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO MON) WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30% POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AN EAST WEST ORIENTED FRONT WAS SITUATED NEAR THE MD/VA BORDER AT 23Z. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE VA/NC BORDER OVERNIGHT. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND DISSIPATING THUNDERSTORMS WAS PASSING THROUGH EASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AT THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS WAS EXPECTING TO IMPACT PHF AND ORF NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD. ONCE THIS PCPN MOVES OFF THE COAST...EXPECT A PERIOD OF MOSTLY VFR BEFORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SETS IN. MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY BUT SBY AND RIC MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS TOWARD MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE MID TO LATE MORNING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MORE CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. TSTM CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY AS THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN DEVELOPING THEREAFTER. LATE DAY AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED THE REST OF THE WEEK. && .MARINE... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE CHES BAY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...DAP/LSA MARINE...JDM

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