Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 270821 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 321 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT AS IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPDATE AS OF 10 PM EST... NO CHANGES TO THE INHERITED WSW HEADLINES THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN SEEING MORE THAN AN INCH OF SNOW WITHIN THE ENTIRE WSW IS LOW. LATEST OPERATIONAL 00Z NAM REMAINS LESS THAN IMPRESSED WITH POTENTIAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THRU TUESDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE OF THE BATCH OF RAIN MOVING SOUTH OVER THE CHES BAY/EASTERN SHORE ATTM...THE NAM AND LATEST HRRR ARE VOID OF ANY OTHER ORGANIZED AREAS OF PCPN. AT LEAST WE HAVE BEGUN TO SEE SIGNS OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/I-95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AS COLDER AIR ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. HOWEVER...OTHER THAN COUNTING ON THE UPPER TROUGH ITSELF TO GENERATE MEANINGFUL SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT/TUES MORNING...THE AREA WILL REMAIN TO FAR REMOVED FROM THE DEEPENING SFC LOW OFFSHORE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HAVE CONTINUED TO TRIM SNOW ACCUMULATION WORDING IN THE WSW`S THIS EVENING...AS A COATING/HALF INCH OF SNOW MAY BE ABOUT THE WORST CASE SCENARIO MOST PLACES. WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY 2-3" ON THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW...BUT A FURTHER REDUCTION IN SNOW TOTALS MAY BE NECESSARY ON THE NEXT SHIFT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPR 20S NW TO THE MID 30S SE. GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER TUES MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO START TRIMMING BACK ON INHERITED WINTER WX ADVSRYS AS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR 1-3IN OF SNOW HAS DECREASED OVER MANY AREAS. WPC AND MUCH OF 12Z GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS IDEA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADVSRY-LEVEL SNOWFALL STILL OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE WHERE 2-4IN IS PSBL. DO NOT THINK NORFOLK AND RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE AOA 2IN...BUT WITH THE HEADLINE ALREADY OUT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH TO PSBLY CAUSE SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS (AND AREAS N AND E) IN THE ADVSRY FOR NOW. ANOTHER ISSUE IS TEMPS...WITH PARTS OF THE AREA STAYING JUST A TAD ABOVE FREEZING. WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED THIS EVENG AND TNGT. AS FOR PCPN...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS ASIDE FM WORCESTER CNTY WHERE AN AREA OF RA HAS BEEN PERSISTENT. BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES THIS EVENG AS SFC LO PRES DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. POPS RANGE FM 40-50% SW TO 70-80% NE. THE RA WILL TRANSITION TO A RA/SN MIX THEN SN FM NW TO SE TNGT. TOTAL QPF WILL BE UP TO A QUARTER INCH. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 20S FAR NW TO MID 30S SE. PCPN WILL END FM W TO E ON TUE AS THE SFC LO ADVANCES TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME AND NW CAA FLOW LEADS TO GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH NR THE CST AND LWR ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S UNDER A CLOUDY-MSTLY CLOUDY SKY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED CSTL LO PULLS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS TUE NIGHT WITH NW WINDS. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 20S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS. COOL TEMPS INTO WED AS WELL...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AS TUE NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST STATES SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A CHC OF RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW PSBL FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS POINT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT. OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. && .MARINE... EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA HEADLINES FORECAST THRU WEDS. LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE NC/VA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY...RESULTING IN AN UPTICK OF N-NE WINDS OVER THE WATERS. BEGINNING TO SEE 20 KT GUSTS OVER THE BAY/LOWER JAMES WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT OVER THE NRN COASTAL WATERS. SEAS HAVE RESPONDED...BUILDING TO 7 FT AT BUOY 44009. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THRU LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOLID SCA CONDITIONS (GUSTS TO 30 KT) EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS TONIGHT AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOW LEVEL CAA ALSO INTENSIFIES. GALE CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN COASTAL WATERS...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST GRADIENT WINDS AND CAA. SEAS BUILD TO 7 TO 12 FT IN THE NRN WATERS AND 5 TO 8 FT IN THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY...FLOW BACKS TO THE NW...KEEPING HIGH SEAS FROM REACHING THE BEACHES. NO HIGH SURF PLANNED ATTM. LITTLE CHANGE TUES AS STRONG NW FLOW PERSISTS BTWN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY. GALE CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE NRN COASTAL WATERS THRU EARLY TUES EVENING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO SOLID SCA CONDITIONS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE WEDS...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH AOB 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDE THRU WEDS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THURS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CLIPPER FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS THURS NIGHT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. WILL MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY COASTAL FLOOD ADVSIORY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE OFFSHORE WIND FLOW. ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2 FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ021>025. NC...NONE. VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081- 089>091-093>098. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632- 634-654-656-658. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633- 635>638. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM/MAS NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...LSA AVIATION...LKB MARINE...SAM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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