Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 201506 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1006 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front lifts north of the area this morning. High pressure becomes anchored off the southeast coast this evening through Wednesday bringing a return to well above normal temperatures. A backdoor cold front moves into the Mid Atlantic region through the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Despite slowly improving vsbys in some areas, still seeing several areas aob 1/2sm so went ahead and extended the dense fog advsry thru noon expecting improving vsbys in all areas by then. Also added slght chc shwrs across sern VA/nern NC based of the high res data of taking the sct shwrs across the Carolina coastal plain ne over the next svrl hrs. Otw, skies should become pt sunny as the day wears on. Spring-like with highs in the low-mid 70s except remaining in the 60s at the beaches. Went ahead and added Hampton Roads/Western Tidewater areas to Dense Fog Advisory. Last few successive runs of HRRR and NARRE showing solid probabilities for low Visibilities to linger through mid to late morning. Previous discussion... Surface analysis reveals surface warm front along the Chesapeake Bay, extending SSW into NE NC and into the central and western Carolinas. Widespread fog has developed along and ahead of the boundary, as moisture pools ahead of the front. Have extended Dense Fog Advisory east to include much of the SW tier of the area, from AKQ south to Bertie County, NC...and the US-58 Corridor from South Hill to Franklin, VA. Will go with an SPS with more patchy lower VSBY farther north into RIC metro and Hampton Roads...with Hi-res CAMs indicating that a further extension north with Dense Fog Advy is possible before 5-6 AM. Clouds will be slow to scour out today, with models indicating that we don`t really break out until early to mid-aftn. Slower timing has resulted in taking temps down a few degrees. Still a warm day nonetheless. Summer-like pattern setting up with strong high in the western Atlantic will allow thicknesses to jump appreciably today. After a slow start, look for temps to quickly climb into the 70s this aftn except in the 60s along the eastern shore and at the beaches. Stratus and patchy fog re-occurs tonight, with additional locally dense fog a possibility. Mild Tues night with lows in the 50s to around 60.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Warmest day of the week comes Wed, where record highs will likely fall across the region. Once again, concern for temps getting off to a slow start with Fog lingering into the mid- morning hours, but with the warm start, won`t take long to reach expected highs 75-80, except 60s at the beaches. A backdoor cold front approaches from the north Wed night and progged to be near the northern AKQ zones by 12Z Thu. Moisture increases along and ahead of this feature but is a bit slower than previous models had, and will continue to side toward the slower ECMWF depiction for the period. Will carry low chc pops across the nrn half of the fa late Wed night. Lows 50-55 north. 55-60 South. The front is slow to move south and is progged to only get to central Virginia by 00Z Fri. Cooler with chc to likely pops across the north, warmer with low chc pops across the south. Temps tricky and will all depend on the frontal position. Highs mid-upr 50s lwr Md eastern shore...60s over most of the area with 70s across NC. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Expect more chcs for rain showers in the extended period, Although above normal temps will prevail acrs the area. Frontal boundary just south of the area Thu night, will gradually lift back north as a warm front later Fri into Fri night, providing a 20-40% chc of showers. That boundary will be just north of the CWA during Sat, as a cold front starts to push into the OH/TN valley. Will have slgt chc to chc Pops, mainly nrn and wrn counties. Chcs for showers will then increase fm the NW Sat night into Sun, as the cold front approaches and pushes into the region. Expecting mainly dry wx Sun night and Mon, as the front pushes out to sea and high pressure builds into and over the area. Highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s Fri, mainly in the mid 60s to lower 70s Sat and Sun, and in the upper 50s to lower 60s Mon. Lows will range thru the 40s to near 50 Thu night, in the upper 40s to mid 50s Fri night, in the 50s Sat night, and in the mid 40s to lower 50s Sun night. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Poor Aviation conditions with LIFR/IFR this morning, with only slow improvement expected through the morning. A warm front will lift north of the region this morning, and while the upr levels dry out a bit quicker, the lwr levels will be slow to scour out. Thus, CIGS will be slow to rise into MVFR range by or shortly after 15-18Z, with VFR conditions not expected to return until mid to late afternoon into the early evening. Fog looks to re-occur tonight into early Wed morning. Outlook... A back door cold front approaches from the NW Wed night then drops south across the area on Thu. Expect a return to IFR/MVFR conditions in rain/fog Thu/Fri behind this feature. && .MARINE... No headlines necessary with this forecast package. A stationary frontal bndry is located over the area this morning, allowing for light winds and marine dense fog to develop. Attm, the dense fog advsry continues over all wtrs through mid morning. The front should gradually dissipate or slide north as a warm front later today, allowing for southerly flow to increase to ~10-15 kt this evening into tonight. 1-2 ft waves over the Bay with 2-3 ft seas over coastal wtrs. Sfc high pressure will remain anchored offshore into Wed, with continued south flow over the local wtrs. With winds remaining below SCA criteria and dewpoints in the 50s, marine fog is expected at times through the period. Back door cold front then drops into the region during Thu, turning winds to the N/NE (10-15 kt most areas) into Fri. The front then lifts back north as a warm front later Fri, and will move north of the region Fri night. Waves/seas will increase Thu into Fri. && .CLIMATE...
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Another round of record highs will possibly be challenged Tue 2/20 and Wed 2/21: * Record highs: * Date: Tue 2/20 Wed 2/21 RIC: 77 (1930) 75 (1930) ORF: 77 (1991) 79 (2014) SBY: 75 (1930) 75 (1943) ECG: 78 (1991) 77 (2014) * Record high mins for 2/21. RIC: 54 (1953) ORF: 58 (1953) SBY: 51 (1953) ECG: 61 (1939)
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&& .EQUIPMENT... KAKQ radar will be down until further notice with an antenna pedestal issue. See FTMAKQ for more details. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...Dense Fog Advisory until noon EST today for NCZ012>016-030>032. VA...Dense Fog Advisory until noon EST today for VAZ065-066-079- 087>090-092-093-095>097-100-523>525. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ630>638-650-652- 654-656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...MAM MARINE...MAS CLIMATE...AKQ

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