Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 240531 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 131 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to influence the weather across the Mid Atlantic region through the weekend...with little to no chances for rain. Warmer and more humid conditions return by late week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Sfc high pressure centered over the Delmarva will promote dry conditions tonight. Some increase in high clouds is expected toward daybreak, but overall not worse than a mostly clear sky. BL remains very dry overnight with guidance not really indicating any fog formation and dew pt depressions on the order of 3-5 deg most areas. Best chance for patchy ground fog will be across the Piedmont. Comfortable lows of 60-65, except upper 60s immediate SE coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... If patchy fog develops around sunrise, it will be short-lived and is expected to dissipate btwn 800-900 AM. Sfc high pressure becomes well-rooted across the coastal plain with the ridge axis draped across far SE VA into cntrl NC/SC through Wed night. The overall forecast is dry, however, an area of moisture moving onshore across far SE VA/NE NC will result in increasing cloudiness shortly after sunrise Wed into the afternoon...when isolated showers/storms may be possible during peak heating. POPs no higher than 20%. Meanwhile, a weak sfc trough pushing across the Great Lakes will push a cirrus deck across the mts and into the Piedmont later in the day...spreading to roughly SBY-AKQ-EMV into Thursday as the sfc ridge axis gets pushed ewd along the coastline by the sfc trough now crossing srn Ontario. Onshore/NE-E winds around 10-15 mph will persist Wed through Thu, which will keep temps slightly cooler at the immediate coast during the day and slightly warmer at night. Expect highs Wed in the mid 80s inland/low 80s immediate coast. Lows Wed night in the 60s. Temps slightly warmer Thu as the ridge axis shifts ewd with highs in the mid-upper 80s inland/low-mid 80s immediate coast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... No major changes expected to the going long term forecast as upper ridging persists across the eastern coast of the U.S into the SE U.S. This will keep the upper jet displaced well north and west of the area allowing for dry and hot conditions to persist across SE VA and NE NC. A stray shower or storm moving off the mountains and into the piedmont, or developing off the sea breeze near the coast, cannot be ruled out over the weekend given the hot/humid conditions. However, given the lack of any upper support and the very dry antecedent airmass will opt for a dry forecast at this time. Have opted to introduce slight chance pops for next Tuesday as the GFS suggests that the upper ridge will displace to the south allowing stronger W-NW flow aloft to move into the middle Atlantic. This may open the door for a few storms during the afternoon/evening as a weakening front approaches from the north. However, again at this time the chances look pretty low. Back to true summer time conditions at least temperature wise as readings during the day will be right back into the low-mid 90s with lows only in the 70s. It will be much more humid as well as compared to the early part of this week. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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High pressure remains over the region this morning resulting in VFR conditions and calm to light southerly winds. Only some high cirrus spilling into the Piedmont. Expect an area of mid level clouds over north central Virginia to spread southeast into the Northern Neck and the Bay, but not expected to impact the TAF sites. Do not anticipate fog tonight due to relatively dry air mass. High pressure remains over the region today, with scattered cu expected inland this afternoon. Another area of mid level clouds expected over the far southeast local area as an inverted trough over the western Atlantic approaches the coast. Light showers and possible a rumble of thunder not out of the question for KECG. MVFR ceilings also expected due to increasing low level moisture. OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR with no precipitation is forecast through Sunday.
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&& .MARINE... Generally quiet marine conditions expected for the next couple of days with high pressure in control. Expect this high to move off to the NE by Thu allowing increasing southerly winds across the entire area. Do not expect any SCA conditions but certainly 15 knots not out of the question. A weak trough may pass the waters on Sat allowing winds to turn back to the NW but they should be less than 15 kt. Will need to watch for building swell next week originating from the various tropical systems well out into the Atlantic. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD NEAR TERM...BMD/JDM SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...SAM/LSA MARINE...MRD

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