Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KAKQ 301820
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
220 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016
Post Tropical Storm Bonnie will linger along the South Carolina
coast this afternoon, and will slowly track northeast along the
coastal Carolinas while weakening further through the middle of
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Richmond has reached 9.36" of rainfall for the month of May as of
Midnight EDT, setting a new record for the month. See the climate
section below for more details.
The latest analysis still indicates Post-Tropical Storm Bonnie
located just inland of Charleston SC. Please continue to refer to
discussions/forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center for
the track of Bonnie.
Have followed closely to the last few runs of HRRR, which seems to
have a good handle w/ongoing pcpn. Noting area of showers
coincident with cooling cloud tops redeveloping over e NC, along
coastal trough axis, which emanates from the remnant low along
the SC coast. CAMs continue to show that these showers will
continue to lift NNW, enhanced by upper divergence provided by
RRQ of upper jet.
Will go with likely to categorical POPS over coastal sections.
Additional periods of locally heavy rain are likely along the
coast and just inland (mainly e of i-95). Meanwhile, pops taper
back to high end chc 40-50 pop out west in the piedmont in
expectation of some sct showers, owing to weak subsidence/low
level drying advecting in from the west. QPF amounts through this
evening to avg 1-2" along the coast, w/lesser amounts farther
inland. Highs today once again variable and clouds/pcpn dependent,
but should be held in the mid-upper 70s along the coast/just
inland, reaching the lower 80s well inland with lesser pcpn
Additional showers expected tonight, with Bonnie`s remnants
lifting along the Carolina coast. Areal coverage of showers once
again diminishes late, becoming focused along the coastal trough
over the eastern third of the area. Once again mild/humid with
lows in the 60s to near 70.
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TD Bonnie (or more likely the remnant low) will continue to very
slowly lift NE along the NC coast Tue/Wed. Continued humid, though
dew pts lower slightly into the mid 60s by Tue. Highs avg in the
upper 70s/lower 80s both Tue-Wed with lows in the lower 60s NW to
the upper 60s SE. Above climo POPS of 40-50% SE and 20-30% NW
persist Mon night-Wed.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Unsettled wx xpcd through most of the extended pd. Remnant lo pres
to be sloly kicked out well off the cst Thu ngt through Fri w/
approach of a cdfnt fm the nw and S/W aloft tracking fm the Great
Lakes/Oh Vly to the NE states. The fnt crosses the fa Fri aftn/eve
shras and psbl tstms...then stalls ovr the Carolinas Fri ngt through
Sat. The fnt is xpcd to be pulled back N by Sun as a deep trough
aloft dives SE through the Great Lakes/Oh Vly...resulting in
additional chcs for shras/tstms into Mon.
Highs Fri fm the u70s on the ern shore to the l-m80s elsw...then
inthe m-u70s at the cst and l80s inland Sat/Sun and Mon. Lows in the
-- End Changed Discussion --
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Showers persist across the region with every TAF site recording
rain at the onset of the 18z TAFs. Conditions generally MVFR, with
obs bouncing between scattered and broken around 700 to 1200 ft
AGL. This has made for quite a challenging TAF forecast. Based on
persistence and the air mass over the region, have continued with
the trend of MVFR/IFR conditions through the afternoon, with some
increased confidence for widespread IFR conditions overnight at
all TAF sites. The exception may be ORF where MVFR conditions are
favored. Regardless, expect poor aviation conditions overnight.
Showers begin to push toward the coast early this evening,
becoming more scattered across the southeast half of the forecast
area through the overnight period. While conditions favor stratus,
expect fog to develop mainly along the coast reducing visibilities
to less than 3 miles at times. Weak pressure gradient results in
light and variable winds overnight. Expect conditions to improve
by mid morning Tuesday with MVFR and VFR conditions returning to
the TAF sites.
Post tropical storm Bonnie lingers over the Carolinas through
Wednesday, resulting in ongoing unsettled weather conditions.
Periods of rain and MVFR and IFR conditions are expected through
Wednesday. A brief reprieve from the rain is forecast Wednesday
night and possibly Thursday. A cold front then approaches the area
of Friday, resulting in more showers and reduced visibilities and
-- Changed Discussion --No headlines necessary attm. Remnant lo pres along the Carolina
coasts through Wed then slowly tracks NE off the VA cst-Delmarva Thu
into Fri. A cdfnt approaches the wtrs fm the NW Fri...pushing E
and S of the wtrs Fri ngt...then stalling ovr the Carolinas on
SE winds becoming more ENE tngt...then contg through Thu ngt.
Speeds rmng generally aob 15kt...though there may be a bit of an
incrs in speeds Wed into Thu as remnant lo pres tracks closer (to
the srn wtrs). Seas 3-4ft in persistent onshore swell...but may
build to 4-5 ft Wed into Thu eve as remnant lo pres tracks just
off the mdatlc coast during this timeframe. Waves 1-2 ft with up
to 3 ft possible at times in the mouth of Ches Bay due to the
-- End Changed Discussion --
The monthly rainfall total at Richmond through Midnight has
reached 9.36", setting a new record for the month of May at RIC.
Additional rainfall is expected today and tomorrow, which could
push the monthly total above 10". If this does occur, it would
only be the second occurrence of 10" or more of rain in a month
prior to July. The other occurrence was Jan 1937 (10.08").
Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond...
1. 9.36" 2016 (Through Midnight EDT)
2. 9.13" 1889
3. 8.98" 1873
4. 8.87" 1972
5. 8.67" 1886
6. 8.59" 2003