Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 272000 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA 400 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front approaches from the west tonight and crosses the region late Tuesday through Tuesday night. High pressure builds in from the north on Wednesday. The high retreats to the northeast on Thursday as the next system approaches from the west.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Latest analysis indicating main area of sfc low pressure centered over the lower OH Valley, with a weak sfc trough noted to the lee of the Appalachians near CHO. Some weak ridging aloft has generally limited showers/tstms east of the Mtns so far, while coverage of showers and storms is much greater across TN/KY/WV. Other than a few remaining spotty light showers/sprinkles exiting the coast, conditions look to stay mainly dry through late aftn. With the weak sfc trough progged to shift ENE through northern VA this evening, and some minimal ML Capes around 500 J/Kg may see a few isolated showers/tstms move across interior portions of the CWA so will maintain ~20% PoPs through 9 pm. Otherwise, partly cloudy and warm with temperatures mainly holding in the 70s and slowly falling into the 60s by late evening. Upper level ridging begins to break down later tonight...as the mid/upper level trough currently centered over southeast MO/southern IL pushes east overnight. After a period of mainly dry conditions, PoPs will ramp back up after 04-06Z as the front approaches from the W and mid-upper level heights fall along with some increase in mid level lapse rates between 06-12Z. Low level instability will be very low, but think there is enough instability aloft to mention a slight chance for tstms over roughly the western 1/2 of the CWA after 08Z. Will carry ~40% chc PoPs west of I-95 to 20% to 30% or less farther east and southeast. Warm with lows mainly 55-60 F. With the moist boundary layer, GFS is indicating a fair amount of fog, but given a SSW wind of 5-10 mph and warm temperatures, think this is overdone and that areas of low clouds are more likely.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Upper level trough pushes into the area Tue, with a model consensus pushing the main shortwave energy across southern VA/and eastern NC from 18-00z. Have raised PoPs to likely (60%) in the aftn over portions of far southern VA and northeast NC where deepest lift and moisture look to coincide during peak heating hours. Maintained mainly high chance PoPs (50%) elsewhere (except for a small area of likely PoPs across the NW. Continued warm w/ highs mainly in the mid to upper 70s (could be around 80 F if enough sunshine develops). There will be some potential for a few stronger storms Tue aftn/evening as speed and directional shear increases and sfc dew pts will be around 60F. Overall not looking like widespread severe wx as there is still some question as to how much storm organization there will be as latest models are hinting at a lot of clouds and an earlier arrival of precip by late morning. SPC has area in marginal risk for severe wx and this seems about right given the current parameters depicted in the models. Overall, highest shear values look to reside over NC. Will linger the chance PoPs through the early evening W and to around midnight along the coast. Drying after midnight with lows mainly 50-55 F. Becoming partly/mostly sunny Wed after some early clouds (especially south) as drier air moves in from the N. Somewhat cooler but still a little above avg with highs 60-65F near the coast and in the upper 60s to lower 70s well inland. Upper ridge axis quickly moves back into the region by Thu, allowing return of mid/high clouds during the day. With fairly low mixing and overrunning clouds, expect a cooler day with highs mainly ranging from the upper 50s to the lower 60s. Kept it dry through 22Z despite the increase in clouds.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Dry wx expected for Wed night thru Thu, as high pressure builds down over the area to along the East coast. Decent chc for showers and possible tstms later Thu night into early Sat morning, as low pressure and another associated cold front approaches and moves acrs the region. Dry wx and high pressure returns for Sat aftn thru Sun. Highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s Thu, in the upper 50s to mid 60s Fri, and in the 60s to near 70 Sat and Sun. Lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s Wed night, in the lower to mid 40s Thu night, in the mid 40s to lower 50s Fri night, and in the 40s Sat night. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Generally VFR ceilings are expected for this afternoon and into the first half of the night for the forecast area. Only a few scattered sprinkles are left across eastern parts of the area this afternoon, rain coverage is not high enough to include in the TAF. Any sprinkles/light showers should continue to dissipate through the afternoon. Abundant low level moisture across the region has allowed for BKN cumulus to develop with bases around 3500 feet. Any cumulus should diminish after sunset. Skies are expected to become mainly clear for the first half of the night with only some high clouds. MVFR ceilings and potentially patchy fog may develop late tonight and into early tomorrow morning, especially at SBY and RIC, due to the moist airmass in place. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the day on Tuesday, with the potential for a few storms to be severe Tuesday late afternoon and evening. Outlook: Unsettled weather conditions will continue into Tuesday night due to the potential for showers and thunderstorms. Sub- VFR conditions will be possible once again Wednesday morning due to low ceilings and the potential for fog. Dry/VFR conditions return on Wednesday as winds shift to the north. The next storm system is expected to approach the area Friday bringing the next chance of adverse aviation conditions. && .MARINE... Low visibility in fog (<1 NM) continues to plague the northern coastal waters and the upper Bay early this morning. Based on trends in the latest obs will continue the Dense Fog Advisory north of Windmill Pt thru 7 am and also for the coastal waters north of Parramore Island. A frontal boundary remains draped across the Delmarva early this morning with reduced visibility in light onshore E/NE flow. South of the boundary winds are S at 10 kt or less. The frontal boundary will eventually get pulled back north of the Delmarva later this morning with improving visibility across the northern waters...and winds becoming S 5 to 15 kt all areas for the rest of today as sfc high pressure lingers off the SE coast. Winds S to SW 10 to 15 kt continues tonight and Tue morning. Seas 2-4 ft; waves 1-2 ft. Low pressure and its associated cold front will across the local area late Tue into early Wed morning. Winds S/SW 10-15 kt Tue aftn will become W/NW 10-15 kt Tue night then N-NE 10-15 kt on Wed. Do not expect SCA conditions to be met thru Wed. High pressure will build in from the N for Wed night and Thu with NE winds 15 kt or less, becoming E by late Thu. Seas 2-4 ft; waves 1-3 ft thru the period. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...AJB MARINE...JDM/TMG

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