Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 140127 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 927 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EAST NORTHEAST AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... AREA OF SCTD SHOWERS (ISLTD THUNDER SE) WILL MOVE THRU CNTRL/ERN CNTIES AND OFF THE CST THIS EVENG...AS A TROF OF LO PRES PUSHES THRU AND OFFSHR. THEN...BECMG MSTLY CLEAR N TO PRTLY/MSTLY CLOUDY S TNGT. LOWS RANGING FM THE MID 50S EXTRM N TO THE MID 60S SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... SUN THRU MON...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LAY OFF THE SE CST...WHILE HI PRES BLDS FM THE OH VLY ENE AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY WX ACRS THE REGION WITH ONLY SLGT CHCS FOR PCPN OVR THE EXTRM S. HI TEMPS ON SUN WILL BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S...WITH SKY COVER RANGING FM MOSTLY SNY EXTRM N TO MOSTLY CLOUDY EXTRM S. ABT THE SAME SKY CONDITION SUN NGT WITH LOWS RANGING THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S. PARTLY SNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ON MON. WARMER AND BECMG A LITTLE MORE HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. WILL THEN HAVE CHC POPS (30-40%) FOR THE ENTIRE REGION MON EVENG INTO EARLY TUE MORNG...AS ANOTHER TROF OF LO PRES APPROACHES AND SWINGS THRU. THAT TROF WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA TUE AFTN...WITH HI PRES BLDNG TWD THE AREA FM THE OH VLY. LOWS MON NGT IN THE 60S. HIGHS ON TUE RANGING FM THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODELS AGREE THAT THE COLD FRONT IS WELL OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW TO START MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. DRY AND COOLER THRU WED NIGHT. LOWS IN THE 50S XCPT 60-65 BEACHES. HIGH WED 70-75. PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES OVER EASTERN CANADA THAT EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC RGN WITH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS FLA AND IVOF GULF STREAM. LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BNDRY THU AND FRI. WHAT THIS SCENARIO SUGGESTS IS FOR AN EXTENDED AND INCREASINGLY MOIST NE FLOW ACROSS THE RGN. TIGHTENING PRES GRAD WILL LEAD TO BREEZY TO WINDY CNDTNS AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST. TIMING OF PCPN RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT BUT WILL CONFINE LOW CHC POPS TO SERN COASTAL AREAS FOR NOW. PT SUNNY NORTH & WEST TO MSTLY CLDY TO CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH & EAST. COOL WITH HIGHS U60S-M70S. LOWS IN THE 50S XCPT 60-65 CSTL AREAS. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... TROUGH AND COLD FRONT HAVE MOVED OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. EVEN AFTER THIS TROF HAS MOVED THROUGH THERE IS STILL AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP DRIZZLE AND IFR/MVFR CEILINGS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 04Z SUN. WILL RAISE CIGS TO VFR OVERNIGHT AS THE DRIER AIR MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH. LOOKS LIKE CONTINUED DRYING ON SUNDAY...KEEPING CONDITIONS VFR. OUTLOOK...PCPN AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MAY RETURN LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. && .MARINE... SCA STARTED FOR ENTIRE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS AS COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE COAST AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT RECORDED IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. RADAR VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS WINDS OVER 30 KT 1-2K FT OFF THE SURFACE AND WITH THE COOLER AIR MOVING OVER THE WARMER WATER...THE WINDS ARE EASILY MIXING DOWN TO THE WATERS SURFACE. ...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A TROF THIS EVENING. MODELS STILL DEPICTING A DECENT CAA SURGE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING SO WILL KEEP CRNT SCA HEADLINES. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO BEGIN THE SCA HEADLINES WITH THIS ISSUANCE FOR THE CHES BAY SINCE THE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS ARND MIDNIGHT. WILL LET THE STARTING TIME FOR SCA`S ALONE FOR LATE TONIGHT AS THERE ARE GNRLY FOR 5 FOOT SEAS (ALTHOUGH THERE CUD BE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KTS LATE TONIGHT). SURGE QUICKLY DMNSHS BY SUNDAY AFTRN SO WILL LET THE SCA`S EXPIRE AT ADVERTISED TIMES. NE FLOW SETS UP SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORN AT SPEEDS AOB 15 KTS. WINDS SHIFT INTO THE E-SE MONDAY AFTRN AND EVEN AHEAD OF NEXT BNDRY. NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TUE MORNING WITH YET ANOTHER MARGINAL CA SURGE EXPECTED BEHIND IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NE (SCA) WINDS AND SEAS AA 5 FT STARTING MID WEEK AND POSSIBLY LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR VAZ098>100. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634- 638-650-652-654-656. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ633-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...TMG LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...DAP/JAB MARINE...MPR

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