Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 200238 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 938 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure moves across the southeastern states through Monday, then slides offshore Monday night and Tuesday. Low pressure will move northeast along the Mid Atlantic coast Tuesday night ahead of a cold front that pushes offshore Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Sfc hi pres will continue to build over the local area overnight. Other than patchy clouds...mainly far NNE portions...SKC w/ WNW winds continuing to diminish (lastly at the coast). Lows in the l-m30s inland...near 40F right at the coast in SE VA-NE NC. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The sfc high moves across the Carolinas Mon then off the coast Mon night and Tues. Dry through this period with a warming trend as winds shift into the SSW. Highs Mon in the low to mid 50s. Lows Mon night in the 30s to near 40 se. Increasing afternoon clouds and milder Tue. Highs 60-65. A trof develops along the sern coast late Tues with a weak area of low pressure moving ne along it Tue night and Wed. Moisture from the system lifts north with the best lift progged along the coast. Expect shwrs to spread north Tue night then shift towards the coast Wed morning as the system slides offshore. Likely pops along the bay and coast...chc pops west of the Bay Tue night. Chc pops along the coast Wed morning then drying out. Qpf generally under one quarter inch. Lows Tue night in the 40s to near 50 se. Highs Wed in the 50s except near 60 across nern NC. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure builds into the area Thursday resulting in a dry but cool holiday. Lows Wed night in the 30s to lwr 40s se. Highs Thurs in the upr 40s to lwr 50s. Another area of low pressure develops off the se coast late in the week but it appears the high to the north keeps any sgnfcnt moisture south of the local area. Dry and continued cool Fri. Highs 50-55. Next cold front approaches from the NW late Sat then crosses then area early Sun. GFS wetter than ECMWF so will go with low chc pops Sat night for now. Warmer Sat ahead of it with highs 55-60. Lows Sat night in the 40s to near 50 se. Cooler behind it Sun with highs mid 40s-lwr 50s. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period as high pressure builds back into the region on Monday. Gusty WNW winds will continue to diminish tonight. Outlook: High pressure moves across the Southeastern states through Monday before tracking offshore on Tuesday. A trough of low pressure develops along the Carolina coast Wednesday with scattered showers possible across southern TAF sites by mid week. && .MARINE... 1000 PM Update...Went ahead and cancelled the Gale Warnings for the coastal waters, wind gusts have mainly diminished below 34 knots. Winds will continue to slowly decrease overnight, but still would not be surprised to see a gust or two up to 35 knots out 20nm. Also cancelled the Small Craft Advisories in the the rivers (minus the Lower James) as wind gusts have diminished below 20 knots in these locations. Previous Discussion...Late this aftn, a cold front was pushing out to sea, while high pressure was cntrd over NE Texas. The gradient between the exiting cold front and the high pressure area was resulting in NW winds 15 to 25 kt over the waters with gusts to around 30 kt. There were a few gusts near 35 kt over the nrn coastal waters. Will leave Gale warning in effect until 4 am for the 3 nrn coastal zns, as gusts to around 35 kt still possible due to CAA and drier airmass filtering into the area. Otherwise, SCA`s will remain in effect for the remainder of the waters into/thru Mon morning, as the cntr of the high builds ENE toward the Mid Atlc region. High pressure builds over the SE States into the srn Mid Atlc region Mon into Mon night, then slides out to sea on Tue. Adverse boating conditions Mon morning will subside during the day, with more benign/quiet sub-SCA conditions expected Mon aftn thru Tue night, as winds become SW mainly 10 to 15 kt. Models in fair agreement with developing a low off the SE Coast Tue night, then passing east of Cape Hatteras and ENE out to sea during Wed. Next chance for SCA conditions will likely be Wed aftn into Wed night, as cool high pressure builds in fm the west. && .EQUIPMENT... The fan on the temperature sensor at the Richmond ASOS (KRIC) has likely failed, causing erroneous temperature readings. The contract observer is augmenting the official METAR observations (Hourly METAR and SPECIs). However, the 5-min high resolution data is automated directly from the sensor and is subject to reporting this erroneous data. As such, do not rely on the 5 min temperature data from KRIC until our techs can repair the sensor, likely on Monday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ630>632-634- 650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ633-638-656- 658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...AJB MARINE...AJB/TMG EQUIPMENT...

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