Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 172352 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 752 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains over the Mid Atlantic region through the remainder of the week with temperatures gradually moderating. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... The current surface analysis shows ~1028mb high pressure centered over the low Potomac River. The sky is clear, except for a band of mid/high clouds skirting the Albemarle Sound and some stratocumulus just offshore. The high remains over the region tonight resulting in ideal radiational cooling conditions with clear, cool, and dry conditions expected. Lows tonight will generally be in the mid/upper 30s for rural inland locations, with low/mid 40s for coastal SE VA/NE NC. Frost should be widespread enough early Wed morning across rural outlying locations of the Piedmont to warrant a frost advisory. Went with a frost advisory from Mecklenburg to Powhatan to Caroline County after coordination with our neighboring offices. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure remains over the region Wednesday thru Friday as the airmass gradually moderates. Sunny/clear and dry conditions will continue. Highs Wednesday range from 65-70F followed by highs Thursday of 70-75F. Highs Friday will reach the mid 70s for most places. Lows Wednesday night will generally be in the 40s. Lows Thursday night will range from the mid 40s inland to the low/mid 50s coast. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure gradually pushes off the coast over the weekend. Temperatures will continue to moderate with sky conditions no worse than partly sunny. Much disagreement in the models by the first of next week with respect to the arrival of the next cold front. ECMWF is much wetter than the GFS with its deeper trough aloft and a potential sfc low developing along the coast. Will show chance PoPs Monday/Tuesday, then another potential cool down by the middle of next week. Highs Sat-Mon in the mid-upr 70s except 70-75 along the coast. Lows Sat nite 50-60. Lows Sun nite in the mid 50s to low 60s. Lows Mon night in the upr 50s to mid 60s. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure will dominate the region tonight into this weekend providing dry wx with a mostly clear sky and mainly light winds. The next cold front will affect the area Mon and Tue. && .MARINE... High pressure continues to push into the region and the gradient along the coast continues to weaken along with the gradual ending of the cold advection. This all spells the weakening of the wind fields. So while the NE winds continue, but they will continue to diminish in intensity. Seas are also dropping as well with the relaxing wind field. So with this package will drop the sca headlines across the Lower Ches Bay, Currituck Sound and the 2 northern coastal zones. The remains sca flags will continue through 00z tonight and Midnight, but conditions may improve so that the advisories can be dropped early. The high becomes centered over western and central Virginia tonight and the high remains entrenched over the region through the remainder of the week into the weekend. There is a weak front that tries to move through the northern waters on Friday afternoon, which would turn the winds to the nw briefly and may kick winds up to the 10 - 15 kt range, but otherwise expect light winds and seas from Wednesday through the weekend. && .EQUIPMENT... The KAKQ radar will be down through Wednesday, October 18th for radome repairs. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ048- 060>062-064>069-509>511. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM/JAO NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...TMG MARINE...ESS/TMG EQUIPMENT...AKQ

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