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542
FXUS61 KAKQ 111855
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
255 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled weather pattern is expected to persist through
the weekend, with isolated to scattered thunderstorms each day.
The potential for afternoon thunderstorms will continue early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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As of 300 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Isolated to scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms are
expected near the coast, with the most isolated storms inland.

- Localized flash flooding is still possible today.

Current wx analysis shows a strong Bermuda high well offshore with a
stationary front draped across the Great Lakes. The upper level
trough that has provided the necessary lift the last few days has
moved offshore, allowing height rises over the area and showers and
storms more isolated in nature than the last few days. The current
radar shows isolated showers have popped up already this afternoon
on the Eastern Shore and Northern Neck. With little flow aloft,
these storms are slow-movers, which could cause concern for flash
flooding. Any flash flooding will be local, as the nature of the
storms. These showers and storms will last through this evening,
primarily near the coastline, but isolated showers further inland
cannot be ruled out. Temperatures overnight will be seasonable with
lows in the lower 70s. Patchy to dense fog is likely for the MD
Eastern Shore, possibly further south to the Hampton Roads/Norfolk
area. Any overnight fog should lift in the morning.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 300 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

The typical summer pattern of diurnal afternoon/evening showers and
storms will continue this weekend as upper height rises continue
over the area. A weak backdoor front will attempt to make its way
south towards the MD Eastern Shore, but will likely lose its forcing
before making it to the area. Temperatures are still expected to be a
few degrees cooler, regardless. As for the rest of the area,
Saturday will be slightly warmer with less cloud coverage than
Sunday and Monday. Heat indices on Saturday will reach 100-104F in
some places, but heat headlines are not expected at this time.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms remain possible each
afternoon/evening (further inland and west of the backdoor front on
Saturday and Sunday. A weak cold front approaches the region
Sunday/Monday, which increases PoPs for Monday afternoon/evening.
Localized flooding cannot be ruled out any day as the atmosphere
remains moist and localized rainfall totals of 1-3" is possible each
day. With a little bit better lifting mechanism on Sunday, isolated
damaging winds are also a low-end threat.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 300 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- Staying seasonably warm and humid for much of next week with
  mainly afternoon/evening storm chances persisting.

A more seasonable weather pattern is expected to continue from the
early to middle part of the week. Behind the weak cold front, upper
ridging will build back into the area from Tue-Thu, although
isolated to scattered aftn/evening tstms are possible each day.
Highs next week will be around seasonal averages for this time of
year (upper 80s/around 90F).
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 145 PM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions with CU clouds are across most of the area. SCT to
BKN high clouds are gradually moving offshore today, but are
preventing more stable CU to form over the coastal terminals. SBY,
PHF, and ECG continue to bounce back and forth from VFR to MVFR CIGs
as cloud coverage is unable to clear out. Currently have TEMPOs for
those terminals to account for MVFR CIGs, which should clear out by
20z/11. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible once
again this afternoon to evening, primarily near the coast... so have
included VCSH for SBY, ECG, PHF, and ORF where confidence is
highest. The coverage will be less than yesterday. Brief LIFR VSBYs
due to heavy rain are likely in any tstm. Behind the convection,
terminals will clear out to VFR conditions for most of the night.
There is good agreement for IFR (maybe LIFR) conditions at SBY
beginning around 05-06z/12 through sunrise. PHF and ORF will likely
see a drop in VIS before sunrise as well -but not as foggy, at MVFR
restrictions. Any fog should dissipate by 13-14z/12.

Outlook: Isolated to scattered afternoon-late evening tstms are
expected through the weekend and into early next week, along
with the potential for early morning ground fog/stratus.
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&&

.MARINE...
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As of 230 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions continue outside of local influences from
afternoon and evening storms.

Sub-SCA conditions are forecast to persist tonight through this
weekend, and likely into next week as well. High pressure remains
situated well offshore and a weak trough is located along/just east
of the Blue Ridge. Winds are generally light and variable over the
waters this afternoon. The surface trough translates offshore this
weekend with flow becoming ENE or E Saturday and Sunday. Southerly
flow returns next week. Waves in the Ches Bay will average 1-2 ft
through the period with seas mainly 1-3 ft. Coverage of afternoon
and evening showers and storms will be more isolated this evening
into the weekend as the upper trough axis moves into the western
Atlantic. However, any storms that do manage to form will continue
to pose localized threats of gusty winds and frequent lightning.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERI
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...ERI/KMC
LONG TERM...ERI/KMC
AVIATION...ERI/KMC
MARINE...AJB/RHR