-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
108
FXUS61 KAKQ 111745
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
145 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled weather pattern is expected to persist through
the weekend, with isolated to scattered thunderstorms each day.
The potential for afternoon thunderstorms will continue early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 930 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Isolated to scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms are expected
  near the coast today, with isolated storms at most inland.

- Localized flash flooding is still possible today.

An upper trough is slowly pushing east of the area this morning
as ridging remains in place off the SE CONUS coast. There are
not any well defined surface features locally, but Bermuda high
pressure remains offshore. A few showers near the Ches. Bay and
coast have popped up recently. The upper trough that helped to
provide the necessary lift for convection the past two days will
shift offshore today. This will lead to height rises. It will
be seasonable today with highs around 90F and dew pts in the
lower- mid 70s. Despite the height rises, the atmosphere will
remain uncapped with MLCAPE rising to ~2000 J/kg by the
afternoon (along with very weak shear). Isolated to scattered
(slow moving) tstms will likely develop by early-mid aftn along
sea breeze boundaries near the coast, with perhaps an isolated
storm or two inland. Can`t rule out a stronger storm or two,
with localized urban flash flooding possible. Despite the lower
degree of storm coverage, the HREF still has a 10% probability
of 3" of rain in 3 hours near the coast later today given the
very slow expected storm motions. Tstms quickly dissipate after
9-10 PM, leading to warm/humid wx tonight with lows in the
lower-mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are still expected from this
  weekend as the unsettled pattern continues.

- Highly localized flooding remains a threat through the weekend.

The upper height rises are expected to continue through the weekend
as ridging tries to build back into the area. Meanwhile, a very weak
backdoor front crosses the eastern shore on Saturday and lingers in
the area on Sunday. It will be hotter on Saturday with low to
locally mid 90s possible inland and max heat indices of 100-104F in
a few locations. Temps on Sunday are forecast to be a few degrees
lower than what`s expected on Saturday. Diurnally driven tstms will
continue each day this weekend (likely focused along and west of the
backdoor front) as the environment will still be uncapped and moist.
With the saturated ground from yesterday and today, localized
flooding can`t be ruled out through the weekend as PWAT values are
expected to be above the 90th percentile for this time of year.
Localized rainfall totals of 1-3" are possible each day. A low-end
threat for damaging wind gusts exists on both days (mainly due to
highly localized downbursts as the flow aloft/shear will remain very
weak).
130

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 AM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- Staying seasonably warm and humid for much of next week with
  mainly afternoon/evening storm chances persisting.

A more seasonable weather pattern is expected to continue from the
early to middle part of the week. While the stronger westerlies
remain to our north through the period, a subtle upper shortwave is
progged to cross the area on Monday. This will lead to increased
coverage of mainly afternoon/evening tstms. The main concern with
any storms on Monday will be flooding, although exact details are
hard to pinpoint this far out. That shortwave moves offshore by Tue.
Upper ridging then tries to build back into the area from Tue-Thu,
although isolated to scattered aftn/evening tstms are possible each
day. Highs next week will be around seasonal averages for this time
of year (upper 80s/around 90F), although it may warm up a bit by
next Thursday/Friday (but very likely not to the levels that we saw
during our June heat wave).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 145 PM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions with CU clouds are across most of the area. SCT to
BKN high clouds are gradually moving offshore today, but are
preventing more stable CU to form over the coastal terminals. SBY,
PHF, and ECG continue to bounce back and forth from VFR to MVFR CIGs
as cloud coverage is unable to clear out. Currently have TEMPOs for
those terminals to account for MVFR CIGs, which should clear out by
20z/11. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible once
again this afternoon to evening, primarily near the coast... so have
included VCSH for SBY, ECG, PHF, and ORF where confidence is
highest. The coverage will be less than yesterday. Brief LIFR VSBYs
due to heavy rain are likely in any tstm. Behind the convection,
terminals will clear out to VFR conditions for most of the night.
There is good agreement for IFR (maybe LIFR) conditions at SBY
beginning around 05-06z/12 through sunrise. PHF and ORF will likely
see a drop in VIS before sunrise as well -but not as foggy, at MVFR
restrictions. ANy fog should dissipate by 13-14z/12.

Outlook: Isolated to scattered afternoon-late evening tstms are
expected through the weekend and into early next week, along
with the potential for early morning ground fog/stratus.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions continue outside of local
  influences from afternoon and evening storms.

- Moderate rip current risk for the northern beaches today.

Sub-SCA conditions are forecast to persist today into the weekend,
and likely into next week as well. High pressure well offshore and a
weak surface trough will allow W and SW winds this morning to become
SE 5-10 kt this afternoon. The surface trough translates offshore
this weekend with flow becoming ENE or E Saturday and Sunday.
Southerly flow returns next week. Waves in the Ches Bay will average
1-2 ft through the period with seas mainly 2-3 ft. Coverage of
afternoon and evening showers and storms will be more isolated today
into the weekend as the upper trough axis moves into the western
Atlantic. However, any storms that do manage to form will continue
to pose localized threats of gusty winds and frequent lightning.

There is a moderate rip current risk for the northern beaches
(including Ocean City) as southeastern swell energy increases today.
There is a low rip risk for the southern beaches. All beaches return
to low rip risk Saturday and Sunday. Upwelling along the northern NC
OBX has abated somewhat with water temps rising back into the upper
60s over the last 12-24 hours. Cooler than normal temperatures will
likely continue until flow becomes onshore this weekend.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERI
NEAR TERM...ERI/KMC
SHORT TERM...ERI/KMC
LONG TERM...ERI/KMC
AVIATION...ERI/KMC
MARINE...RHR