Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 180334 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1034 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. ONE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST STATES EAST NORTHEAST TO JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WEST- NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH WEAKENS. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER AND COLDER AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES DROP OF 30M TONIGHT WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. SOME LOCALS OVER THE PIEDMONT EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S. INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND A PASSING UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN HIGH CLOUDS THRU MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...THINNING LATE. CLOUD COVER NOT EXPECTED TO BE THICK ENOUGH TO LIMIT TEMPS. DRIER AIR WILL INHIBIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THU INTO EARLY FRI NGT...AS DRY/ZONAL FLO DOMINATES THE REGION AND SFC HI PRES BLDS ACRS THE GRT LKS INTO SE CANADA. SHRTWV ENERGY TRACKING FM W-E IN FAST FLO ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDINESS THU NGT INTO FRI MORNG. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY THU THRU FRI...WITH HI TEMPS RANGING THRU THE 40S BOTH DAYS. LOWS THU NGT MAINLY IN THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S. FRI NGT THRU SAT...LEANING CLOSER TO THE SLGTLY FASTER GFS...ESPLY REGARDING ONSET/OVERSPREADING OF PCPN ACRS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...WENT CLOSER TO THE GFS THICKNESSES/MDL SOUNDINGS...ESPLY DURING SAT MORNG WITH THE ONSET OF PCPN...WHERE A CHC OF SLEET (MAYBE SOME SNOW) WAS ADDED GENERALLY N OF A SOUTH HILL TO WILLIAMSBURG LINE. BY LATE MORNG OR EARLY AFTN...PCPN WILL BECOME JUST RAIN EVERYWHERE...AS LAYERS WARM AND SFC TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHEST QPF AMTS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD END UP ACRS EXTRM SRN/SE VA AND NE NC. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL TO AROUND 30 NW TO THE UPPER 30S SE. HOWEVER...ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD END PRIOR TO ANY SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AOB 32F. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PREVAIL SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND TRACKS NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME TEMPERATURES APPEAR WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY RAIN. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. WEST WINDS SHIFT TO N/NW DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY APPEAR FROM TIME TO TIME. OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND PSBL IFR CONDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY BUT EASTERLY FLOW COULD MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS. && .MARINE... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO THE N TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SHALLOW CAA ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA. THE CURRENT SCA FOR THE NRN OCEAN ZONES WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE NRN TWO BAY ZONES. A 20-25KT NW WIND IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN OCEAN ZONES...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY BUILD SEAS TO 4-5FT OUT NEAR 20NM. GENERALLY EXPECTING LOW-END (15-20KT) SCA CONDITIONS IN THE NRN BAY ZONES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS PERSIST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE WIND GRADUALLY DECREASING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ENE TO IMMEDIATELY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW TRACKS NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL OF SCA CONDITIONS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ630-631- 650-652.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...SAM SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...LSA MARINE...AJZ

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