Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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142 FXUS61 KAKQ 250137 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA 937 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast through Saturday. An upper level disturbance lifts over the region Sunday. A cold front crosses the region Tuesday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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minor update to the forecast this evening to slow the fall in temperatures this evening. Overnight lows will drop into lower 50s as winds decouple overnight. Skies were clear with just some high clouds moving across the mountains and mid clouds over western VA. At the surface high pressure was anchored off the SE US coast. This pattern will persist through tonight and Saturday with southwest flow and the low level moisture continuing to increase with sfc dew points in the mid to upper 40s climbing into the lower 50s. Expect dry weather tonight and Saturday with lows in the lower 50s and highs tomorrow in the low to mids 70s for most areas.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The period begins on the dry side the upper short wave ride and sfc high still in control of the region weather. The southerly flow will continue to keep the mild air in place with another night with lows in the 50s. The one except to this could be a back door front that slides into the Delmarva late Saturday night. The NAM was much more aggressive with this feature and allowed cooler air to make its way into the Lower MD Eastern Shore. Have cooled temperatures there toward morning and added some additional clouds. Did not add any pops however. The next upper level shortwave is progged to move through the Ohio valley into the Great Lake States late Sunday into Monday morning. The best forcing with this wave will remain north and west of the area with no real surface reflection as the initial boundary weakens and dissipates as the next trough begins to lift out of the southern plains. Have dropped pops back to chance values with the best forcing being so far to the north and west of the area. The GFS is a bit quicker to pull the chances of rain out compare to the nam so have held on to some pops early monday in the Delmarva but went dry there after as the shortwave ridge between the two systems builds over the area. For temperatures, see very little change as the air mass remain the same. So expect highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s each day and lows Sunday night in the low to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Medium range period will remain mild, courtesy of warm southerly flow from lingering high pressure just offshore of the mid-atlantic coast. Other main weather feature of note will be a rather progressive mid-level shortwave traversing the western/central CONUS late Sat-Monday, before lifting E-NE across the mid-South toward the local area on Tuesday. High end chance POP remains in place for showers and sct T-Storms. While the system will be weakening, given decent instability and favorable diurnal timing, will continue thunder wording for all but far NE zones (later timing). Shortwave ridging behind the wave will bring slightly cooler, albeit still mild, and drying wx Wed and Thu. Forecast highs mainly in the 60s to near 70 far north and along the immediate coast...70s to near 80 west of the Bay on Tuesday, 60s to mid 70s on Wednesday...with temps trending back to around climo normal for the latter half of next week. Next chance of rain comes by the end of the period late next week in association with another weakening southern stream upper low traversing the southern tier of the country. For now, rain chances are re-introduced by late on Thu/Fri. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Gusty southwest winds prevailed Friday afternoon. These winds will diminish some but continue strong enough to inhibit fog. Dew points are increasing over the area but relative humidities are expected to remain AOB 90 percent in the morning. Variable amounts of mid and high level clouds will concentrate across northern and far western parts of the area through Saturday. Observed (off KDOX radar) and forecast winds southwest and west winds of around 40 knots at 2K feet this evening and overnight have triggered wind shear remarks in the TAFs for RIC and SBY. Back at the surface...southwest winds increase to some extent Saturday but not as strong as they were Friday. OUTLOOK...Patchy fog will be possible Sunday morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible late Sunday into Monday morning and again late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Periods of reduced aviation conditions will be possible during times of precipitation. && .MARINE... Latest obs reflect increasing SSW flow across the waters this afternoon, courtesy of tightening pressure gradient between Surface high pressure just offshore and developing low pressure over the Plains. As expected, nearshore winds have been gusty today, and have noted some gusts to near SCA thresholds in the Lower James River and Nearshore along the western shore of the Bay. However, given still cool water temps, gusts have been largely unable to mix down to the water surface. Thus, will carry winds around 15kt for the balance of the aftn, dropping off slightly this evening. Similar setup for tomorrow, albeit with mixing a bit more shallow. SSW flow 10-15 kt, a few gusts to near SCA possible in the Rivers and Northern Bay zones. A weak backdoor front will drop across northern waters tomorrow night, with winds shifting around to the NNE post-frontal mainly north of Parramore Island and eventually reaching the upper Bay north of New Point Comfort into early Sunday morning. Farther south, S-SW flow persists aob 15 kt. Southerly flow resumes across northern waters by later Sunday as the weak front lifts back north/washes out. Relatively benign marine persist Sunday night and Monday, with SSW winds mainly aob 15 kt. Next front crosses the waters on Tuesday evening into Wednesday, with winds veering nnw before becoming onshore for the late week period. Seas averaging 2-3 ft nearshore...waves 1-2 ft. However, a brief period of 4-5 footers possible on Tuesday near offshore zones with increasing SW flow. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ESS NEAR TERM...ESS/JAO SHORT TERM...ESS LONG TERM...MAM AVIATION...LSA MARINE...ALB/MAM

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