Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 290224 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1024 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE FOR THURSDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING WITH THE PARENT LOW CENTERED OVER ME. IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED DUE TO RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SKIES HAVE ALSO CLEARED IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH (-3 STD DEV H5 HEIGHTS) WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE OVER THE ERN CONUS TONIGHT...USHERING IN A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES PROGGED TO DROP NEARLY 30M BY TUES MORNING. THE RESULT WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPS WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. WARMER ALONG THE COAST WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH LITTLE CHANGES MADE OVERNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... DRY AND RATHER PLEASANT TUE AND WED (ESPLY TUE)...AS SFC HI PRES BLDS INTO AND OVR THE AREA...DESPITE LONGWAVE TROF DIGGING (SITTING) OVR THE MID ATLC REGION. AN ISLTD SHOWER OR TSTM COULD OCCUR OVR NE NC TUE AFTN...AS THE BASE OF THE UPR LEVEL TROF SWINGS THRU THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LO LINGERING JUST OFF THE NC CST. UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR TUE NGT WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S MOST PLACES. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE LWR TO MID 80S. MOSTLY CLEAR WED NGT WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S. HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH E THRU S FLO ACRS THE AREA. SLGT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S (MAYBE SOME UPR 80S). && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS DRY THU NGT/FRIDAY...WITH SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE MIDDLE MS VLY AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDS OVER THE CWA. STRONG LOW PRES SYS OVER NEW ENGLAND BRINGING W-NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT LIES OVER THE CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL THRU THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE OVERNIGHT AND TUE. OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE LATE TIN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. && .MARINE... LATEST OBS REFLECT W-SW FLOW 10-15 KT (15-20 KT IN THE LOWER CHES BAY) OUT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH IS PRESENTLY DROPPING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS GENERALLY RUNNING 2-3 FT THIS AFTN, HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL THE WATERS EARLY TONIGHT, WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NNW AFTER 00Z AS MODEST CAA SURGE RIDES DOWN THE BAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO SCA FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTN, BUT SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA BRIEFLY LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DESPITE THIS LULL, CONTINUED SCA OVER THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH THE IDEA OF WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TUESDAY MORNING. WILL HANDLE WORDING OF RAMP UP OF WINDS IN THE MWW/CWF. WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AND DIMINISH AOB 10KT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. STAYED CLOSE TO NWPS, WITH ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED AROUND 2 TO 4 FT. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE WEEKEND, WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE WATERS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634- 638. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...SAM SHORT TERM...TMG LONG TERM...MAM AVIATION...JEF/LSA MARINE...MAM

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