-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 032200
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
500 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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ONLY VERY LIGHT RAIN OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHR THIS AFTN...AS WEAK
UPR AIR ENERGY WAS MOVNG EWRD ACRS THIS REGION. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY
SKY EVERYWHERE WITH TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S LATE
THIS AFTN. WINDS WERE SE OR S ARND 5 MPH. ACTUAL WARM FRONT WITH
INCREASING LO LVL MOIST AND BETTER VERTICAL MOTION WILL LIFT THRU
THE AREA LATER THIS EVENG INTO WED MORNG. MAINLY HAVE LIKELY POPS
(60-70%) ACRS THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION...WITH CHC POPS (30-50%)
ACRS THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY RISE
OVRNGT...AS WINDS TURN MORE SSW AND INCREASE. RDGS SHOULD RISE
AT LEAST INTO THE MID TO UPR 40S BY DAYBREAK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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WED THRU THU NGT...EXPECT VARIABLE WX CONDITIONS WITH VERY MILD
TEMPS ON WED/WED NGT ALONG WITH RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS...THEN MUCH
COLDER TEMPS RETURNING FOR THU/THU NGT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SLEET
AND/OR SNOW. AT THIS TIME...GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF FRNTL PASSAGE AND TEMP
PROFILES WITH THE CHANGEOVER FM RAIN TO SLEET AND/OR SNOW.

HIGHEST POPS FOR RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACRS THE NRN
HALF OF THE REGION DURING WED...AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SE ACRS
THE AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S EXTRM N...TO THE
LWR 70S S/SE.

COLD FRONT WILL BE S OF THE ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z THU...THEN WAVES
OF LO PRES WILL MOVE NE ALNG THE BNDRY AND OFF THE MID ATLC CST
THU INTO THU NGT...AS ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BLDS TWD
THE MS/OH VALLEYS. COMPROMISE OF 12Z GFS/ECMWF THERMAL PROFILES
SHOWS RAIN BECOMES MIXED WITH SLEET...THEN CHANGES TO SNOW/SLEET
THEN ENDING AS SNOW FM NNW TO SE ACRS THE FA...FM THU MORNG INTO
THU EVENG. STILL SOME UNCERTAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS...AND AT THIS TIME...EXPECT AT LEAST LGT SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ALNG AND N OF A FARMVILLE TO PETERSBURG TO
MELFA LINE BY EARLY THU NGT. ALNG WITH THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY
PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
LO TEMPS WED NGT WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 30S N...TO THE LWR/MID 40S
FAR S/SE. TEMPS ON THU WILL BE STEADY OR FALLING.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE UPPER FLOW
THRU THE EXTENDED...CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING/BLOCKING OVER THE WRN
CONUS/ERN PACIFIC AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN
CONUS. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...COLD/DRY 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THURSDAYS COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFF THE COAST...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -8C FRI (~-1 STD DEV)...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN DEPICTED 24
HRS AGO. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S INLAND AND UPPER
20S-LOW 30S COASTAL AREAS. AIRMASS MODIFIES FRI NIGHT-SAT AS THE
COLD/DRY AIR RETREATS NWD. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
SAT...WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-
MID 40S COASTAL AREAS. SKY AVG MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
AND WARMING CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND AND LOW
40S TO UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS OUT
WEST...WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW AND SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE DESERT SW/BAJA. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT NOW THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRY SUN NIGHT-EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MATCHING THE GFS AND ENSEMBLES. HOWEVER...SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUES RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT OVER
THE GULF WILL ATTEMPT TO AMPLIFY AND LIFT NWD AS SRN STREAM ENERGY
APPROACHES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT. HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON
AND TUES) CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER
40S COASTAL AREAS THANKS TO COLD WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN OVERCAST DECK AROUND 3500-5000 FT AGL PERSISTS THIS AFTN AS
LIGHT NE WINDS START TO BECOME MORE ELY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF -SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AFTER 03/2100Z ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH MORE
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS THE NRN NECK AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE. IFR
CIGS OF 500-1000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS PRECIP BEGINS
AND THEN PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE SHOULD BE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WED
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER SE VA/NE NC WHERE THE CIGS MAY BREAK UP
NICELY. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE
REGION WED AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
THE CHANCE OF RAIN INCREASES LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE
TRENDING WARMER SLIGHTLY LONGER WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A
TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX WITH SLEET FROM NW TO SE AS THU
PROGRESSES AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW BY LATE THU AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THE RESULT IS LIGHT E-SE WINDS
AOB 10 KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-4 FT.
SW WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE WATERS.
LLJ INCREASES TO 50+KT TONIGHT...BUT WAA AND COLD WATER WILL
RESULT IN A SHARP INVERSION OVER THE WATER. THIS WILL PREVENT THE
HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE WATER. THUS...SCA
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS OF 20
KT LATE TONIGHT. HAVE CAPPED WINDS AT 15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT
IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOB 4 FT. COLD FRONT SLOWLY
CROSSES THE WATER NW TO SE WEDS...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE NC/VA BORDER WEDS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. FLOW BECOMES NLY POST FRONTAL...BUT DECREASES TO AROUND
10-15 KT AS CAA LAGS BEHIND. FRONT CLEARS THE WATERS LATE WEDS
NIGHT...WITH CAA SURGE ARRIVING INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WATER THURS MORNING...PERSISTING THRU
THURS NIGHT. GUIDANCE INDICATING LOW END GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
LATE THURS INTO THURS NIGHT IN THE SRN COASTAL WATERS AND
CURRITUCK SOUND...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST GRADIENT. SEAS BUILD TO
4-7 FT (UP TO 8 FT SRN COASTAL WATERS) THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING
WINDS AND SLOWLY SUBSIDING SEAS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU
THE WEEKEND THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...SAM