Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 152135 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 435 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary will remain well south of the local area the into Monday as high pressure builds across New England. A series of weak low pressure systems will track along that boundary resulting in periods of unsettled weather through the first half of the upcoming week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Current analysis indicates broad sfc high pressure (~1030 mb centered from the eastern Great Lakes to the Delmarva. WNW flow aloft prevails. Skies have gradually cleared out over much of the CWA though pockets of mainly cloudy conditions persist over much of the Piedmont. temperatures have warmed to 45-50 F on average. For tonight, GFS/NAm remain fairly consistent with moisture spreading back into the region from the W. The GFS is a little farther N and has more QPF with the precip shield later tonight than the consensus of the remaining models, but overall trend has been to raise POPS later tonight to likely/60% over portions of central VA tapered to low chc POPS most other areas (think too much dry air will remain across eastern shore for any precip). This is a low QPF setup so despite likely POPS, QPF will be less than 0.10" most areas. Skies remain partly cloudy longer this evening over the E so some lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s will be possible from the nrn Neck to the eastern shore...with lows in the mid 30s-around 40 F elsewhere. Thicknesses show p-type mainly RA...though w/ temperatures aob 32F far NNE...could be light mixed p-type far NNE should pcpn make it that far E after 06Z. Forcing and deeper moisture genly wanes after 12-15Z, though skies will remain overcast and enough low level moisture lingers for a chance of drizzle into the aftn even as the mid levels dry out. Cool and damp with CAD setup so highs will only avg 40-45 F most zones, except for mid-upper 40s to around 50 F far SE. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Strong sfc low pressure moves NE to the SRN Great Lakes on Tue...lifting a warm front N through the local area. Latest trends suggest another wet/dreary day, with likely POPS over the northern 1/2 of the CWA, less rain and lower POPS but still mainly cloudy across the S. Temps moderate but with all the clouds, highs likely do not get out of the 50s (will maintain low 60s far SE for now). Cold Front passe through Wed, and with deeper mixing and WNW flow in low levels, should see some breaks in the clouds and a warm day with highs at least in the 60s. Showers will be most likely across the SE where drier air is slower to arrive, though will keep a 20-30% POP farther NW as well as upper level shortwave will still lag behind and pass into the region by aftn. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The long term period begins Wednesday night with the expectation of above normal temperatures. There is some uncertainty with the details of PCPN. Plenty of Pacific moisture will swish across the CONUS and an upper level ridge will briefly build over the eastern part of the nation around Friday and Saturday. A cold front and associated short wave move off to the southeast Wednesday night with any showers ending that evening. Dry weather is expected Thursday into early Friday. A short wave may bring a few showers Friday and Friday night especially southern portions with POPS set no higher than 30 percent. During the weekend...a complex low pressure system and cutoff upper level low develop in the Plains States. PCPN associated with this system should stay to the west through Sunday. Fairly consistent day to day temperatures are expected Thursday through Sunday with highs in the 50s and lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s. && .AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The sky cleared eastern portions this morning as high pressure over the Northeast States built southward. Mid level clouds will slowly increase over the area which will lower to MVFR Monday morning as winds turn to easterly. OUTLOOK...Lowering ceilings will prevail into early Tuesday as a warm front approaches and moves through the area Tuesday. Some IFR will be possible Monday night and early Tuesday. Conditions improve late Tuesday through Wednesday but there will be a chance for showers Wednesday as a cold front moves through. The weather improves once again Thursday and Friday as the cold front moves south of the area and high pressure takes over from the north. && .MARINE...
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No headlines in the short term tngt thru Tue. High pressure will build over the nrn Mid Atlc tngt into Mon aftn, then slides out to sea Mon night into Tue, as a cold front pushes into/thru the MS valley. NNE winds 15 kt or less expected tngt, then NE or E 10 kt or less Mon. Winds become SE then S on Tue and increase to around 10 kt by evening, as the cold front moves into the mtns. SW winds 10 to 15 kt Tue night into Wed morning, become W then NW Wed aftn and evening, as the front pushes acrs the waters and off the coast.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...LSA AVIATION...LSA MARINE...TMG is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.