


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --542 FXUS61 KAKQ 111855 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 255 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An unsettled weather pattern is expected to persist through the weekend, with isolated to scattered thunderstorms each day. The potential for afternoon thunderstorms will continue early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 300 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Isolated to scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms are expected near the coast, with the most isolated storms inland. - Localized flash flooding is still possible today. Current wx analysis shows a strong Bermuda high well offshore with a stationary front draped across the Great Lakes. The upper level trough that has provided the necessary lift the last few days has moved offshore, allowing height rises over the area and showers and storms more isolated in nature than the last few days. The current radar shows isolated showers have popped up already this afternoon on the Eastern Shore and Northern Neck. With little flow aloft, these storms are slow-movers, which could cause concern for flash flooding. Any flash flooding will be local, as the nature of the storms. These showers and storms will last through this evening, primarily near the coastline, but isolated showers further inland cannot be ruled out. Temperatures overnight will be seasonable with lows in the lower 70s. Patchy to dense fog is likely for the MD Eastern Shore, possibly further south to the Hampton Roads/Norfolk area. Any overnight fog should lift in the morning.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 300 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: The typical summer pattern of diurnal afternoon/evening showers and storms will continue this weekend as upper height rises continue over the area. A weak backdoor front will attempt to make its way south towards the MD Eastern Shore, but will likely lose its forcing before making it to the area. Temperatures are still expected to be a few degrees cooler, regardless. As for the rest of the area, Saturday will be slightly warmer with less cloud coverage than Sunday and Monday. Heat indices on Saturday will reach 100-104F in some places, but heat headlines are not expected at this time. Isolated to scattered showers and storms remain possible each afternoon/evening (further inland and west of the backdoor front on Saturday and Sunday. A weak cold front approaches the region Sunday/Monday, which increases PoPs for Monday afternoon/evening. Localized flooding cannot be ruled out any day as the atmosphere remains moist and localized rainfall totals of 1-3" is possible each day. With a little bit better lifting mechanism on Sunday, isolated damaging winds are also a low-end threat.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 300 PM EDT Friday... Key Message: - Staying seasonably warm and humid for much of next week with mainly afternoon/evening storm chances persisting. A more seasonable weather pattern is expected to continue from the early to middle part of the week. Behind the weak cold front, upper ridging will build back into the area from Tue-Thu, although isolated to scattered aftn/evening tstms are possible each day. Highs next week will be around seasonal averages for this time of year (upper 80s/around 90F).-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 145 PM EDT Friday... VFR conditions with CU clouds are across most of the area. SCT to BKN high clouds are gradually moving offshore today, but are preventing more stable CU to form over the coastal terminals. SBY, PHF, and ECG continue to bounce back and forth from VFR to MVFR CIGs as cloud coverage is unable to clear out. Currently have TEMPOs for those terminals to account for MVFR CIGs, which should clear out by 20z/11. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible once again this afternoon to evening, primarily near the coast... so have included VCSH for SBY, ECG, PHF, and ORF where confidence is highest. The coverage will be less than yesterday. Brief LIFR VSBYs due to heavy rain are likely in any tstm. Behind the convection, terminals will clear out to VFR conditions for most of the night. There is good agreement for IFR (maybe LIFR) conditions at SBY beginning around 05-06z/12 through sunrise. PHF and ORF will likely see a drop in VIS before sunrise as well -but not as foggy, at MVFR restrictions. Any fog should dissipate by 13-14z/12. Outlook: Isolated to scattered afternoon-late evening tstms are expected through the weekend and into early next week, along with the potential for early morning ground fog/stratus.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .MARINE...-- Changed Discussion --As of 230 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Benign marine conditions continue outside of local influences from afternoon and evening storms. Sub-SCA conditions are forecast to persist tonight through this weekend, and likely into next week as well. High pressure remains situated well offshore and a weak trough is located along/just east of the Blue Ridge. Winds are generally light and variable over the waters this afternoon. The surface trough translates offshore this weekend with flow becoming ENE or E Saturday and Sunday. Southerly flow returns next week. Waves in the Ches Bay will average 1-2 ft through the period with seas mainly 1-3 ft. Coverage of afternoon and evening showers and storms will be more isolated this evening into the weekend as the upper trough axis moves into the western Atlantic. However, any storms that do manage to form will continue to pose localized threats of gusty winds and frequent lightning.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ERI NEAR TERM...KMC SHORT TERM...ERI/KMC LONG TERM...ERI/KMC AVIATION...ERI/KMC MARINE...AJB/RHR