Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 032200 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 500 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
ONLY VERY LIGHT RAIN OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHR THIS AFTN...AS WEAK UPR AIR ENERGY WAS MOVNG EWRD ACRS THIS REGION. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY SKY EVERYWHERE WITH TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S LATE THIS AFTN. WINDS WERE SE OR S ARND 5 MPH. ACTUAL WARM FRONT WITH INCREASING LO LVL MOIST AND BETTER VERTICAL MOTION WILL LIFT THRU THE AREA LATER THIS EVENG INTO WED MORNG. MAINLY HAVE LIKELY POPS (60-70%) ACRS THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION...WITH CHC POPS (30-50%) ACRS THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY RISE OVRNGT...AS WINDS TURN MORE SSW AND INCREASE. RDGS SHOULD RISE AT LEAST INTO THE MID TO UPR 40S BY DAYBREAK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
WED THRU THU NGT...EXPECT VARIABLE WX CONDITIONS WITH VERY MILD TEMPS ON WED/WED NGT ALONG WITH RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS...THEN MUCH COLDER TEMPS RETURNING FOR THU/THU NGT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SLEET AND/OR SNOW. AT THIS TIME...GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF FRNTL PASSAGE AND TEMP PROFILES WITH THE CHANGEOVER FM RAIN TO SLEET AND/OR SNOW. HIGHEST POPS FOR RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACRS THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION DURING WED...AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SE ACRS THE AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S EXTRM N...TO THE LWR 70S S/SE. COLD FRONT WILL BE S OF THE ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z THU...THEN WAVES OF LO PRES WILL MOVE NE ALNG THE BNDRY AND OFF THE MID ATLC CST THU INTO THU NGT...AS ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BLDS TWD THE MS/OH VALLEYS. COMPROMISE OF 12Z GFS/ECMWF THERMAL PROFILES SHOWS RAIN BECOMES MIXED WITH SLEET...THEN CHANGES TO SNOW/SLEET THEN ENDING AS SNOW FM NNW TO SE ACRS THE FA...FM THU MORNG INTO THU EVENG. STILL SOME UNCERTAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING THOSE TRANSITIONS...AND AT THIS TIME...EXPECT AT LEAST LGT SNOW/SLEET ACCUMS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ALNG AND N OF A FARMVILLE TO PETERSBURG TO MELFA LINE BY EARLY THU NGT. ALNG WITH THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. LO TEMPS WED NGT WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 30S N...TO THE LWR/MID 40S FAR S/SE. TEMPS ON THU WILL BE STEADY OR FALLING.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE UPPER FLOW THRU THE EXTENDED...CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING/BLOCKING OVER THE WRN CONUS/ERN PACIFIC AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...COLD/DRY 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THURSDAYS COLD FRONT LOCATES OFF THE COAST...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. H85 TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -8C FRI (~-1 STD DEV)...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN DEPICTED 24 HRS AGO. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S INLAND AND UPPER 20S-LOW 30S COASTAL AREAS. AIRMASS MODIFIES FRI NIGHT-SAT AS THE COLD/DRY AIR RETREATS NWD. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION SAT...WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW- MID 40S COASTAL AREAS. SKY AVG MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND AND LOW 40S TO UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS OUT WEST...WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING SPLIT/BLOCKY FLOW AND SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE DESERT SW/BAJA. GOOD NEWS IS THAT NOW THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRY SUN NIGHT-EARLY NEXT WEEK...MATCHING THE GFS AND ENSEMBLES. HOWEVER...SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT OVER THE GULF WILL ATTEMPT TO AMPLIFY AND LIFT NWD AS SRN STREAM ENERGY APPROACHES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT. HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON AND TUES) CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS THANKS TO COLD WATER. && .AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AN OVERCAST DECK AROUND 3500-5000 FT AGL PERSISTS THIS AFTN AS LIGHT NE WINDS START TO BECOME MORE ELY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF -SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 03/2100Z ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH MORE STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS THE NRN NECK AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE. IFR CIGS OF 500-1000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS PRECIP BEGINS AND THEN PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WED MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER SE VA/NE NC WHERE THE CIGS MAY BREAK UP NICELY. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE REGION WED AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS. THE CHANCE OF RAIN INCREASES LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE TRENDING WARMER SLIGHTLY LONGER WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX WITH SLEET FROM NW TO SE AS THU PROGRESSES AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW BY LATE THU AFTN/EARLY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THE RESULT IS LIGHT E-SE WINDS AOB 10 KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-4 FT. SW WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE WATERS. LLJ INCREASES TO 50+KT TONIGHT...BUT WAA AND COLD WATER WILL RESULT IN A SHARP INVERSION OVER THE WATER. THIS WILL PREVENT THE HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE WATER. THUS...SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS OF 20 KT LATE TONIGHT. HAVE CAPPED WINDS AT 15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOB 4 FT. COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE WATER NW TO SE WEDS...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER WEDS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FLOW BECOMES NLY POST FRONTAL...BUT DECREASES TO AROUND 10-15 KT AS CAA LAGS BEHIND. FRONT CLEARS THE WATERS LATE WEDS NIGHT...WITH CAA SURGE ARRIVING INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WATER THURS MORNING...PERSISTING THRU THURS NIGHT. GUIDANCE INDICATING LOW END GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE THURS INTO THURS NIGHT IN THE SRN COASTAL WATERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST GRADIENT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT (UP TO 8 FT SRN COASTAL WATERS) THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING WINDS AND SLOWLY SUBSIDING SEAS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU THE WEEKEND THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...TMG LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...BMD MARINE...SAM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.