Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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558 FXUS61 KAKQ 220520 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1220 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure pushes farther off the New England coast tonight. Low pressure tracks east across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida Peninsula Wednesday through Friday. A strong cold front crosses the local area Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Latest IR satellite trends depict high clouds over the region, ahead of an approach upper level disturbance. Expect the clouds to slowly lower thru the overnight. Precipitation stretching from the Deep South into the Ohio Valley will slowly push toward the region through the overnight period as a shortwave drops across the Ohio Valley and a potent upper low tracks across the Gulf States. However, high pressure near the coast and limited moisture return will keep showers at bay until Wednesday morning. Inherited forecast is on par. Lows generally in the low to mid 40`s. Previous Discussion... Latest sfc analysis shows a weak cold front washing out as it crosses the eastern Great Lakes. Meanwhile, strong low pressure it situated over the lower MS Valley. As these two features continue to push east tonight, we will see clouds continue to thicken creating mostly cloudy conditions overnight. Any shower activity will stay west of the local area thru 6 AM. Lows in the 40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... The strong upper low is expected to pass over the eastern GOMEX on Wednesday, then cross the southern FL Peninsula Wednesday night into Thursday morning before pushing east of the Bahamas late Thursday. Meanwhile, high pressure will linger off the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts. A weak shortwave approaches the area from the west Wednesday morning then settles SE of the area in the afternoon. Although forcing will be weak, BUFKIT soundings for KRIC show sufficient moisture present (thru at least 700 mb) for some light rain during Wednesday, especially across the Piedmont (spreading east to the Bay in the afternoon). Have highest pops 40-50% west of I-95 thru the day. QPF amounts will generally be less than a tenth of an inch or so. Continued mild Wednesday despite mostly cloudy skies. Highs in the low- mid 60s...to near 70 over interior NE NC. Plenty of moisture at different levels to keep sky conditions partly to mostly cloudy Wednesday night, but little if any support for pcpn. Lows from the upr 40s north to low 50s south. Increasing WSW develops Thurs due to the position of the low off the FL coast and a deepening trough over the northern Plains/Midwest. Models indicating enough moisture present for partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with isolated showers. Warmer with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s near the water, low to mid 70s west of the Ches Bay. Lows Thursday night mainly 50-55. By Friday, southerly flow is expected with building heights along the East Coast. Meanwhile, potent low pressure continues to deepen over the upper Midwest. Low level thickness values support max temps reaching the low/mid 70s many locations (cooler immediate coast). Will probably end up below record highs Friday with winds expected be more S-SE as opposed to WSW. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Pattern begins with strong/anomalous upper ridge along the east coast with a deep upper low over the upper midwest. Temperatures will continue to be well above normal Fri night into Sat, with lows in the 50s to around 60 F and highs Sat mainly in the 70s. The guidance remains in decent agreement for a swath of moisture and marginal dynamics with the fropa on Sat, but with the upper trough already taking on a negative tilt so far W of the Appalachians, still could see a scenario where precip struggles to hold together as the front moves east of the Mtns (particularly over southern Va and northeast NC). Will maintain chance pops (30-50%) shwrs/ aftn tstms Sat with low end likely pops across the far N. Behind the front, temperatures will return close to normal for Sunday with highs in the 50s under a breezy WNW flow and sunny skies. GFS/ECWMF differ slightly beyond that, but overall indicate high pressure building across the SE CONUS with a return SW flow developing for Mon-Tue as yet another low pressure system moves from the upper midwest to the upper Great Lakes. Dry Mon, with a 20-30% PoP across the N for Tue. Temperatures should trend up once again with highs back into the 60s most areas Mon and approaching 70 F by Tue aftn for highs across the southern 1/2 of the area. Lows will avg in the 30s to lower 40s. && .AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR conditions to start off the forecast period as BKN CI continue to spill east of the mts ahead of an approaching trof of low pressure. This trof slowly sags SE across the region after 12Z. Models depict a fairly quick moistening of the mid levels with pcpn mainly confined to the Piedmont. Thus, SCT-BKN MVFR CIGS along with VCSH will be confined to RIC although sporatic sprinkles/very light rain possible at PHF by 18Z. These CIGS extend past 00Z with slowly improving conditions expected after 06Z as the system moves south of the area. OUTLOOK...Complex frontal system will affect the area late in the week with small chances for showers Thu and Thu night. A strong cold front passes through the Mid Atlantic States Saturday with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. High pressure and dry weather returns for Sunday.
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&& .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions continue for the next several days with sfc high pres centered offshore of the NE/mid-Atlc coast tonight. Winds will be easterly aob 10 kt with 1-2 ft waves over the Bay and 2-3 ft seas over cstl wtrs. The high remains offshore into Wed with southerly winds aob 10 kt. S/SW winds to avg 10-15 KT (or less) then persists until at least Fri ahead of the next cold front. However, with strong low pressure over Florida Thu pushing off the southeast coast Fri, latest Wavewatch indicating some increasing long period swell moving up to the local coastal waters for Fri-Sat with seas building to 4-6 ft which would lead to SCA headlines along the coast. Then, with some modest cold air behind the cold front on Sat, should see SCA conditions for much of the area Sat night through Sun morning. && .CLIMATE... Feb 2017 is shaping up to rank among the warmest on record given continued warmth over the next week. Daily record highs are listed below for Thu and Fri, with the top 3 warmest February`s on record listed below that. Expecting RIC, ORF, ECG to be at least into the top 3 warmest (and possibly the warmest). SBY looks on track to be 4th or 5th warmest. Daily Record Highs for Thursday 2/23 and Friday 2/24: 2/23 2/24 RIC 75 in 1985 82 in 1985 ORF 79 in 1975 82 in 2012 SBY 74 in 1943 77 in 2012 ECG 77 in 1975 79 in 1985 Warmest February`s on record: * RIC: 1) 49.9 (1890) 2) 48.5 (1976) 3) 48.1 (1884) * ORF: 1) 52.4 (1890) 2) 50.5 (1909) 3) 50.1 (1990) * SBY: 1) 46.1 (1976) 2) 45.8 (1984) 3) 45.7 (1925) * ECG: 1) 52.1 (1990) 2) 51.8 (1939) 3) 50.3 (1976) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM/SAM SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...MPR/LSA MARINE...LKB CLIMATE...AKQ

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