Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 221819 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 219 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Post-Tropical Storm Jose will continue to weaken as it lingers off the New England coast through the weekend. Meanwhile, high pressure will expand into the Mid-Atlantic. Hurricane Maria is forecast to move northward between the offshore Atlantic waters and Bermuda through the early part of next week. A cold front is expected to cross the region by mid-week as Maria passes well to our east. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The latest surface analysis shows surface high pressure in control of our weather pattern while Post-Tropical Storm Jose lingers well north of the area off of the New England Coast. Patchy fog will remain possible, especially in typical fog-prone locations, across portions of the Piedmont and NE NC through early morning before quickly dissipating after sunrise. Another day of mostly sunny skies is expected for much of the area. The only exception will be some higher clouds, as a result of PTC Jose, working in from the northeast through the afternoon. Temperatures will continue to be unseasonably warm (4 to 6 degrees above average for late September) on Friday under an upper ridge. Temperatures may remain slightly cooler over portions of the Maryland Eastern Shore depending on cloud cover. No precipitation is anticipated for Friday. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure at the surface and aloft will be in control of our weather pattern through the weekend. High pressure in combination with NNE flow will allow for continued dry weather and above normal temperatures. Highs will generally range from the low to mid 80s, except mid to upper 70s at the beaches. Lows will range from the lower 60s inland to upper 60s near the coast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Hi pres sfc-aloft continues to weaken invof NE CONUS Mon night into Tue. Meanwhile...Tropical cyclone Mariais expected to track to (well?) E of the coastal Carolinas. Wx conditions Tue-Thu remain dependent on the track of Tropical Cyclone Maria. A track closer to the coast (than that of Jose) would bring increasing winds/PoPs...esp ern portions of FA...more to the E would result in drier-continued warm wx. For now...generally going w/ partly cloudy w/ low PoPs (E portions). Monitor forecasts from the National Hurricane Center on Maria through the weekend. A cold front is forecast to arrive late next week (late Thu-Thu night)...resulting in cooler wx and possibly higher PoPs. Highs Tue in the u70s-l80s...Wed u70s-mid 80s...l-m80s Thu...in the 70s Fri. Lows Mon-Wed nights mainly 65 to 70F...then Thu night from the m50s NW to the m60s SE.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure over the Mid Atlantic region will influence the weather pattern with VFR conditions and mostly light wind. Patchy fog that has mainly developed in outlying locations this morning will quickly dissipate after sunrise. Higher clouds work in from the NE this afternoon due to Post- Tropical Cyclone Jose. Outlook: Generally VFR/dry conditions, with the exception of patchy morning fog, are anticipated through early next week due to the influence of high pressure over the reason. && .MARINE...
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose remains centered SE of Cape Cod early this morning and is forecast to remain nearly stationary through Saturday morning...before gradually pushing ewd through Sunday. Meanwhile, Hurricane Maria is located NNE of the Turks and Caicos this afternoon and is forecast to track to the NNW through Sat and then on a N track through Wed to about equidistant from the Carolina coast and Bermuda. Long period swell continues to propagate toward the coast with seas generally 3-6 ft. Some portions of the area will have seas fall at times below 5 ft over the next few days. However...the SCA for hazardous seas will continue...and will be extended to 22z Sun as energetic ENE swell will continue. Swell arrives from Maria most likely beginning late this weekend and continuing into next week. SCAs for seas will likely be needed into early next week. The bulk of the forecast guidance keeps Maria offshore during the early to middle portions of next week. Monitor the NHC forecast for the official forecast track of Maria. A further increase in seas is expected Monday through Wednesday along with an increasing N wind Tue-Thu.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Water levels expected to remain elevated at all sites through the weekend...but given that the swell is not as large as what it has been...they should stay just below flood. Will need to watch for additional flooding next week...especially in the bay...as the swell from Maria moves into the area. High risk for rip currents for all beaches adjacent to coastal waters continues through Sat as swell/nearshore waves will be slow to subside.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>023. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...AJB NEAR TERM...AJB SHORT TERM...AJB LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...AJB MARINE...AJZ/ALB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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