Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 240051 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 751 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain over the region through Friday. Low pressure will linger off the southeast coast Friday through Saturday morning. Another cold front will cross the area late Saturday into Saturday night, with high pressure building back in from the northwest Sunday and Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Late this aftn, a broad area of high pressure was extending ENE from Texas into the nrn Mid Atlc region. Aloft, a trough axis was in place from the ern Great Lakes south into the Gulf of Mexico. Also, low pressure was over FL. For tonight, sfc high pressure will remain in control, keeping moisture associated with low pressure over FL and off the SE coast shunted to our SSE. Clear or mostly clear across most of the area, except high clouds will keep sky partly cloudy over SE VA and NE NC. Lows will range fm the mid 20s to near 30 most areas (lower to mid 30s over extrm SE VA and NE NC). && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Latest GFS/NAM/ECMWF remain in good agreement with the pattern through the weekend, with enough northern stream trough energy passing by to our NE Fri morning/aftn to keep sfc low pressure and associated moisture off the SE and Mid Atlc coasts and SSE of the local area. Sfc high pressure more or less to stay entrenched over the region thru Fri, gradually shifting off the Mid Atlc coast Fri evening/night. Bufkit soundings again depict fairly limited/shallow mixing for Fri, so even with significant rises in 850 mb temps, actual high temperatures at the sfc will not warm all that much, mainly into the mid 50s. Mostly sunny, except for some increasing clouds over the far SE. Next upper trough moves into and thru the Great Lakes Fri night/Sat. Still looks like bulk of moisture from low pressure off the SE and Mid Atlc coasts stays well ESE and offshore, as it lifts ENE. Not quite as cold Fri night with lows mostly ranging fm the mid 30s to around 40. Sfc cold front approaches from the west late Fri night into midday Sat, then crosses the area late Sat into Sat night. A SW flow to develop and will see a milder day with highs around 60 N to the mid 60s SE. Clouds will increase during the aftn, and become mostly cloudy across the NW. Sfc cold front and a lagging shortwave trough aloft to cross the region Sat evening and push offshore Sat night. System remains moisture starved, but will carry 20% PoPs over the N/NE, GFS is stronger with the forcing than the ECMWF. Lows Sat night ranging fm the mid 30s NW to the lower 40s SE VA and NE NC. Mostly sunny and turning cooler Sun, as sfc high pressure returns fm the W. Highs mainly 50-55. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Medium range period characterized by departing east coast trough, and building upper level ridge over the Rockies sliding east through midweek. Temperatures will be slightly below climo to start the period, but Will moderate through the period, warming back into the 60s for mid to late week. Rain chances remain low through Wednesday, with low chance pops by Thursday as a southern stream system pushes east from the southern plains toward the southeast Wed night/Thu. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR conditions across the region with some high clouds over the SE portions. Light north winds early this evening will become light/variable overnight and early Friday. Sfc high pressure will maintain VFR conditions into Sat. Winds will strengthen a bit from the SSW Sat ahead of a cold front, and turn to the NW for Sat night and Sun, with high pressure building back in from the WNW. Sky may become mostly cloudy Sat aftn/evening, with isolated showers possible, but VFR conditions expected to prevail.
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&& .MARINE... High pressure will remain over the region tonight, and then gradually slides off the Mid-Atlantic coast Friday. Meanwhile, low pressure will linger off the Southeast coast. This area of low pressure will gradually push farther offshore Friday night into Saturday, as a cold front approaches from the NW by Saturday. The wind will be northerly aob 10kt for much of the marine area tonight, but will become NE 10-15kt S of Cape Henry late tonight. The wind will gradually become NE then E Friday, with speeds aob 10kt, before becoming SW 10-15kt late Friday night into Saturday ahead of the approaching cold front. Seas remain 3-4ft tonight into Friday and then subside to 2-3ft Friday night into Saturday. The cold front crosses the region Saturday night followed by a subsequent CAA surge late Saturday night into midday Sunday with a NW wind of 15-25kt. Seas build to 4-6ft, with 3-4ft waves in the Bay. High pressure returns Sunday night into Monday and then slides off the Southeast coast Tuesday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...MAM/TMG SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG LONG TERM...MAM AVIATION...TMG/JEF MARINE...AJZ

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