Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 050041 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 841 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATING BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING THROUGH CHES BAY...WITH 3 HR PRESSURE RISES OF 1 TO 2 MB ACRS MOST OF THE CWA. EARLIER TSTMS ACTIVITY HAS NOW SHIFTED TO THE W OR SW OF THE CWA. A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS ACRS THE PIEDMONT WILL LINGER THROUGH 00-02Z OR SO. ELSEWHERE...SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT IN MANY AREAS E OF I-95 ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS ALREADY SEEING LOW STRATUS DEVELOP. APPEARS THERE WILL BE LULL IN PRECIP FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING INTO THE EARLY AM HRS. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER SUNSET IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ALONG AND E OF I-95 WHERE SKIES CLEAR OUT...BUT DO EXPECT IT TO BE WIDESPREAD. OVERNIGHT/AFTER 06Z WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH SKIES GRADUALLY BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS ONCE AGAIN AS STRATUS BECOMES WIDESPREAD. ALSO WILL SEE INCREASING NE WINDS BY 06-09Z...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST AS PRESSURE RISES CONTINUE WITH ~1025 MB SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND BUILDING SOUTH. LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70F INLAND...TO 70-75F AT THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... WX LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED OVR (MOST OF) THE FA THIS WKND AS SFC HI PRES SLOLY BUILDS SE THROUGH NEW ENG...THEN OFF THE NE CONUS CST (BY SUN). NE WNDS WILL RMN GUSTY (TO 25-30 MPH) NR THE CST ON SAT BEFORE WANING INTO SUN. COMPOUNDING THE UNCERTAINTY WRT CLDS AND PCPN CHCS WILL BE DEVELOPMENT OF WK LO PRES INVOF SE CONUS CST. COOLER...BUT RMNG HUMID THIS WKND AS DRIER AIR FM THE NNE HAS DIFFICULTY PUSHING TOO FAR S INTO THE FA. BEST SHOT AT THAT WILL BE OVR NE COUNTIES DURING THE WKND...W/ WK MID LVL DISTURBANCES CIRCULATE INLAND INVOF SRN/SE VA AND NE NC RESULTING IN VRB CLDS- MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS AND ISOLD-SCT SHRAS (20-40%) BOTH DAYS. BY MON...GRADUAL EROSION OF THE ONSHORE FLO XPCD...LEADING TO A BETTER PROB FOR PARTLY CLOUDY/WARMER CONDS. WILL HANG ONTO 20-30% IN SE VA/NE NC ON MON. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M-U70S AT THE CST TO L80S INLAND...THEN FM THE U70S-L80S SUN...AND L-M80S MON. MOST LO TEMPS FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A RATHER DIFFUSE WX PATTERN TO START THE WORK WEEK WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS AND WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE TN VALLEY THUS KEEPING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON THE FRINGE OF PERIODIC CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY NEAR COASTAL AREAS OF SE VA/NE NC. FAIRLY LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS ON TUE FINALLY GIVE WAY TO MORE S-SW WINDS TUE NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF WARM-UP DURING THE MID-WEEK TIMEFRAME. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S TUE-THU AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S MON NIGHT-THU NIGHT. LONGWAVE TROUGHING BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE THU/FRI ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES AREAS AND SHOULD PUSH A MORE WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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CONVECTION HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED OR MOVED OUT OF THE CWA. ALL TAF SITES ARE VFR WITH NE-E WINDS AROUND 10KT. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT RESULTING IN COOLER BUT STILL MOIST NE FLOW. PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND IFR/MVFR STATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST ON SATURDAY. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&& .MARINE... NE WINDS ARE 10-15 KT ALL WATERS THIS AFTN AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREADS THE NE STATES. WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THE REST OF TODAY AS THE FRONT NEARS THE WATERS. NE WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AVERAGING 15-20KT AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. SCA FLAGS FOR ALL WATERS WILL GO INTO EFFECT THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS SUBSIDE. NE WINDS DURING SCA FLAGS WILL AVERAGE 15-25KT WITH UP TO 30KT GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER. WAVES ON CHES BAY WILL BUILD FROM 2-3FT TO 3-4FT THIS EVENING AND SEAS WILL REACH 4-6 FT (HIGHEST NORTH) BY SAT MORNING. AGAIN...ALL SCA`S WILL RUN THROUGH THE DAY SAT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE SAT NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE BAY...CURRITUCK SOUND...AND ERN VA RIVERS SO THAT SCA FLAGS CAN END THROUGHOUT SAT EVENING. STILL EXPECTING WAVES TO REMAIN AROUND 4FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY INTO SUN MORNING...WITH SEAS LINGERING AROUND 5 FT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO START NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGH NEARSHORE WAVES WILL ENHANCE THE RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... PERSISTENT NE WINDS OF 15-25KT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND 0.5 TO 1.0 FT ABOVE NORMAL AND WATER LEVELS JUST BELOW HAT TO 0.5 FT ABOVE HAT DURING THE SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SEVERAL TIDAL GAUGES ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND IN CHES BAY MAY EITHER FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING OR JUST CREST INTO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS/LEVELS. COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING... HOWEVER WOULD LIKE TO MONITOR TRENDS OVERNIGHT AS THE NE WINDS INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ635>637. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ633. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-631. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...ALB LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...DAP/JEF MARINE...BMD TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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