Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 241750 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1250 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure lifts northeast just off the New England coast today into Wednesday morning. A ridge of high pressure will build into the area tonight, then slides off the coast during Wednesday. A cold front crosses the region Thursday morning. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Latest GOES water vapor imagery centers upper level low pressure offshore of the Delmarva, with shortwave ridging visible from the Gulf of Mexico northward into the middle Mississippi River Valley. At the surface, ~987mb low pressure has located offshore of the New Jersey coast. Brunt of the precipitation associated with the upper/surface low has pushed offshore, but some light wrap around precipitation still visible over the Delmarva. Expect any lingering light rain to push offshore through late morning. The upper and surface low lift along the Northeast coast today as the upper level ridge amplifies over the Midwest ahead of another trough over the Intermountain West. A band of frontogenetic forcing progged to push across the region this afternoon as a shear axis lifts over the region in northwest flow aloft. GFS and some of the hi-res guidance indicates some light precipitation across the northeast half of the local area, but a majority of the guidance is dry. While the NAM is dry, the 295-300K isentropic surface suggests this scenario. Opted to increase cloud cover over eastern Virginia this afternoon, but have limited slight chance to low end chance POPs to the Northern Neck and Maryland Eastern Shore. Any precipitation that does fall will be light, will only a few hundredths of an inch at best. The upper ridge and surface high pressure begin to push into the region late today, with drying northwest flow expected to push cloud cover toward the coast. Clearing inland. Based on increasing cloud cover and latest guidance, have opted to trend temperatures down a degree or two. Latest temperature trends back this up as temperatures have been slow to warm into the mid to upper 40`s this morning. Highs today range from the mid to upper 40`s northeast to mid 50`s southwest. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Upper/sfc ridge axis builds into the area tngt into Wed morning, resulting in a clear sky and lows ranging fm the mid to upper 30s inland, to the lower 40s over extrm SE VA and coastal NE NC. Ridge axis slides offshore during Wed, as the next upper trough approaches fm the west. An associated cold front is progged to reach the central Appalachians late Wed. Return flow will push highs into the upper 50s to mid 60s (approaching upper 60s inland). Clouds increase late Wed and Wed evening ahead of the approaching cold front. Spatial and timing differences exist, but general model consensus pushes the front through the region Thu morning. A potent shortwave accompanies the front along with a narrow band of high precipitable waters, so now have pops 30-60% with the highest pops over srn and ern third of the region. Front quickly pushes offshore Thu aftn, with dry conditions expected area wide during the aftn. Milder Thu morning with lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Becoming partly to mostly sunny Thu with highs ranging fm the mid 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A broad trough of low pressure is expected to enter the region Wednesday night and into Thursday as a surface cold front slides into the area. Moisture still appears somewhat limited as the front crosses the region Thursday morning. Continuing to lean closer to a drier solution with the highest precipitation chances confined to far southeast portions of the area Thursday morning. Behind the cold frontal passage Thursday morning, an upper level trough builds into the eastern half of the US allowing for northwest flow to dominate the forecast period. Temperatures will return to more seasonable values by Friday and continue through Monday. Highs will generally be in the low/mid 40s with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s through this period. The positive tilt configuration of the upper level trough will allow for high pressure to build in from the south and suppress precipitation chances through Sunday. Models are hinting at a reinforcing cold front passing through the region on Monday, but it appears as though moisture will be limited with this system. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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MVFR ceilings persist near the coast as low pressure slowly lifts along the Northeast coast. High pressure building in from the southwest and dry northwest flow aloft has resulted in only a scattered deck around 4-7k feet AGL inland. Expect clearing to reach the coast late today into this evening, with all TAF sites becoming SKC overnight. Expect a northwest wind of 10-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots (up to 30 knots near the coast). Winds become westerly overnight at or below 10 knots. OUTLOOK...The ridge of high pressure slides acrs the area and off the coast during Wed. Then, there will be a chance for showers late Wed night thru Thu morning associated with a cold front moving acrs the region. Dry conditions expected for Thu aftn thru Sat.
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&& .MARINE... Low pres moves slowly NE along the NJ coast to just SW of Cape Cod by late today. Meanwhile, hi pres begins to build into the mid-Atlantic region from the NW. The NNW will average 15-25kt (gusts to 25-30kt) into this afternoon. All headlines (SCAs) remaining in place. Seas will be slow to subside into tonight and may not drop below 5 ft until early Wed. Hi pres gradually builds into the region tonight and slides offshore Wednesday ahead of a cold front. This cold front crosses the coast later Wed night into early Thu. Hi pres builds in from the W Thu night into Fri. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... All coastal flood advisories have expired. No additional flooding is expected, however, Cambridge will approach minor flooding (within 0.5ft of minor) for high tide this afternoon. Water levels will gradually fall over the next few high tide cycles with an extended period of offshore flow. Nearshore waves have dropped below 8ft, so the High Surf Advisory has been cancelled. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>634. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ654-656- 658. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...SAM SHORT TERM...SAM/TMG LONG TERM...AJB AVIATION...SAM/TMG MARINE...ALB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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