Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 071505 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1105 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST...STALLING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN HOTTER TEMPERATURES WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT FRONT WILL THEN DROP DOWN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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LATE MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATING A WEAK SFC/LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACRS THE LOCAL AREA...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN PLACE OFF THE MID/ATLC AND SE COAST. WHILE THE OVERALL PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS TO BE DRIER TODAY...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20% CHC FOR AFTN TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...MAINLY E OF I-95. NAM/GFS AND HIGH RES MODELS SHOW SOME SHALLOW/MAINLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING IN THESE AREAS THIS AFTN...AND ALREADY SEEING A FAIR CU FIELD POPPING OVER NE NC AND SE VA. THIS IS WHERE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP OCCURRED LAST EVENING. LATEST HRRR WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTMS AFTER ABOUT 18Z WHERE THIS CU-FIELD IS DEVELOPING. OTHERWISE...SKIES AVG MAINLY SUNNY THROUGH EARLY AFTN OTHER THAN IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF SE VA/NE NC...WITH GENLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING PEAK HEATING 18-21Z. SLOWLY RISING 850 MB TEMPS/A SSW LOW LEVEL FLOW/AND MORE SUNSHINE THAN PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LWR 90S MOST AREAS. HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE CST WILL BE IN THE 80S. HUMIDITY WILL YIELD PEAK HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S/AROUND 100 F.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... WARM/HUMID TNGT WITH LOWS IN THE LWR TO MID 70S. WED IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE RAIN-FREE INTO THE MID AFTN...BEFORE A FRNTL BNDRY FM THE NW DRIFTS CLOSER...COMBINING WITH HEATING...COULD RESULT IN LATE AFTN/EVENG TSTMS...ESPLY ACRS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA. POPS WILL RANGE FM 20% ACRS EXTRM SRN VA AND NE NC...TO 40-50% ACRS NNE COUNTIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 80S TO MID 90S...WITH HEAT INDICES 95 TO ARND 100. MODELS SHOW SOME CONTINUED SHRTWV ENERGY OVRNGT WED NGT ACRS THE NE ZONES...AND WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS (30%) THERE INTO THE EARLY MORNG HRS OF THU. LOWS 70-75. CONTINUED HOT ON THU WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 80S TO MID 90S. SLGT CHC OF LATE AFTN/EVENG TSTMS ACRS NRN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... SERN U.S. H5 RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW NW FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES DIVING SOUTH. TIMING OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT...SO MAINLY WENT WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL TSTM POPS OF 20-30% EACH AFTN/EVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...AND HIGHS IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 702 AM EDT...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THIS MORNING, WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. ATM WILL REMAIN WELL MIXED THIS EVENING WITH SHARPENING THROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND...AND HAVE THEREFORE KEPT WINDS IN TAF AOA 5KT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO ~15 KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AT ORF/PHF. A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD, AS A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL AGAIN APPROACH THE AREA, ONLY TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. TYPICAL ISOLATED LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS POSSIBLE WED- THU, CLEARING OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, WL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR MORE OF THE SAME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/VIS RESTRICTIONS FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. && .MARINE... AS OF 702 AM EDT...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. SFC HIGH WILL LONGER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS WEAK SFC TROUGH SHARPENS INLAND. SW FLOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY W/ SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT. WAVEWATCH IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH GOING FORECAST, AND HAVE MADE MINIMAL CHANGES THERE. SEAS AVGG 2-4 FEET/BAY 2-3FT TNGT THROUGH THU. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...MAM MARINE...MAM

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