Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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885 FXUS61 KAKQ 280556 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 156 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front stalls near the Virginia-North Carolina border through Wednesday morning. Low pressure tracks north across the North Carolina and Virginia piedmont Wednesday afternoon and night. An upper level low slowly drops south from the Great Lakes region resulting in unsettled weather conditions into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Weak frontal boundary stalls invof srn VA/near the VA-NC border overnight. Combination of recent rainfall/ground moisture and light winds to lead to fog. Model profiles favor most widespread fog along/E of I 95...stratus W (as weak impulse aloft becomes to develop area of at least SCT shras NNE across the piedmont). Will not pull trigger on dense fog advisory...trends overnight may change that. Otherwise...PoPs to 50-60% W...to 15-30% at the coast. Mostly cloudy with lows in the l60s NW to the u60s SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Interesting forecast for Wed and Wed nite. Potent s/w energy (triple point low) progged to slowly track north along the I95 corridor. After morning shwrs and areas of fog, expect nmrs shwrs and tstrms to develop. The strength of the storms will likely hinge on whether any sun will aid in heating. SPC has areas along and west of the I95 corridor in marginal risk with the threat being damaging wind gusts. Locally heavy downpours are also possible. Will carry likely pops after 18Z. Highs from the mid 70s NW to lwr 80s SE. Lows in the mid 60s NW to near 70 SE. Upper level (cut off) low progged to slowly sink south from the Great Lakes region Thurs then stall across KY Thurs nite before beginning to slowly drift NNE Fri. Strong and persistent onshore flow around this feature will add to the available moisture and cool pool instability to produce widespread showers with embedded tstrms. Upslope conditions will likely produce pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall across northern most zones on northward. Thus, kept chc to likely pops going for most of Thurs through Friday. Highest pops across the north. Highs Thu in the mid 70s to lwr 80s. Lows in the 60s to near 70 SE. Highs Fri 75-80. Total QPF west of the Ches Bay expected in the 2 to 4 inch range with 1/2 to 1.5 inches along the coast. No flood headlines anticipated at this time given the time frame that the rainfall will occur over. Significant rises in river levels are possible later this week if we do get the expected QPF across the headwaters. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Long term period starts off Fri night/Sat with an upper-level cutoff low and associated sfc low centered over the OH Valley. Better rain chances will stay north of the area, but included at least a 20-30% chance of showers especially over ne areas where the highest moisture will be located. Mainly dry conditions thereafter into Sun and Mon as the cutoff low weakens and slides ne into Canada. As for temps, highs will generally be in the mid/upper 70s with lows ranging from the mid/upper 50s over the Piedmont to the mid/upper 60s near the coast. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Widespread IFR conditions observed across central Virginia early this morning with visibilities as low as 1/2 mile and ceilings down to around 300-1200 feet. The exceptions are the Maryland Eastern Shore and southeast Virginia/northeast North Carolina where MVFR/VFR conditions are observed. Expect poor aviation conditions from the Piedmont into central Virginia through mid morning before improvement. Visibilities could drop to airport minimums at times at KRIC and KPHF. MVFR conditions KSBY. Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms lifting over the Piedmont will spread northeastward, possibly reaching central Virginia around daybreak. Winds generally at or below 10 knots. The weak boundary remains over the region today as an upper level disturbance drops into the region. Expect another round of widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms to develop late morning through the afternoon, spreading northeast through the day. Lower chances southeast Virginia/northeast North Carolina. MVFR conditions expected. Outlook: Unsettled weather conditions expected through the end of the work week as waves of low pressure lift along the cold front. Showers with late day thunderstorms will be possible each day. && .MARINE... Latest sfc analysis shows a stalled frontal boundary over the local area. The frnt remains in the vicinity through Wed leading to sub- sca conditions with 1-2 ft waves over the Bay and 2-4 ft seas over coastal waters. The front then lifts northward Wed night/Thu, and with strengthening high pressure over SE Canada/New England, seas will ramp up. Hoisted a sca for the northern coastal waters for Wed night/Thu with prolonged easterly fetch, which may need to be extended past the fourth period in future updates. 5 ft seas may also possibly affect the southern coastal waters as well. Overall winds will avg 10-15 kt through the period, up to 15-20 kt over northern coastal waters at times. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...AJB/SAM MARINE...MAS

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