Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 022041 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 341 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... RATHER NICE EARLY MARCH AFTN ACRS THE FA. HAS TURNED OUT P/MSUNNY ACRS THE FA...W/ TEMPS RETURNING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL (INTO THE M/U40S NE TO THE M50S SW). SFC HI PRES WILL BE BUILDING OVR THE MTNS THIS EVE...THEN BECOME CENTERED OVR THE FA BY LT TNGT. RMNG MNLY SKC THIS EVE...THEN THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORMS TO THE W BEGINS TO SPREAD CLDNS INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS MNLY RANGING THROUGH THE 20S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... CENTER OF SFC HI PRES SLOLY EXITS TO THE E ON TUE...BUT LO LVL CAD RMNS OVR THE FA. CLDNS WILL CONT TO INCRS TUE MRNG LIMITING TEMP RISE. SOME LGT PCPN MAY BREAKOUT...ESP FAR WNW AREAS...DURING THE MIDDAY HRS...THEN BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN ACRS FA XPCD BY MID/LT AFTN. MDL SOUNDINGS CONT TO HINT AT PTNTL FOR BRIEF PD OF FZRA OVR FAR NNW AREAS AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH 32F THROUGH EARLY AFTN. CONFIDENCE RMNS LO ATTM...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WX ADVISORY. OTRW...P-TYPE TO BE RA OVR THE RGN TUE AFTN/EVE. HI TEMPS TO BE REACHED LT IN THE DAY...RANGING FM THE M/U30S NW-CNTRL LOCATIONS TO L40S SE. WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TUE NGT. BEST MOISTURE AND UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/ WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE U40S- M50S. FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW. THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...AS 12Z/02 NAM ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z/02 GFS. AGAIN...THE 12Z/02 ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS (40-60%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%) TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC. JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND) TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK (WED-THU). FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT (IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND 30F N TO THE L40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85 TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND. ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS MAINLY CLEAR OF LOWERED CIGS EARLY THIS AFTN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KECG....WHICH IS QUICKLY SEEING IMPROVEMENTS THIS HOUR (OR 02/1800Z). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD EARLY TUE MORNING AND THEN OFFSHORE BY TUE AFTN. MORE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TUE AFTN/NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN DETERIORATED CONDITIONS EARLY WED...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WED AFTN/EVENING. PRECIPITATION BEGINS AS ALL RAIN ON WED...AND IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX AND THEN TO PRIMARILY SNOW FROM NW TO SE THU AFTN/EVENING. PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA FRI THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. && .MARINE... AS OF 1PM...CAA BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN RATHER LIMITED AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 40S COASTAL AREAS. WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FT OFF THE WATER HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 30-35KT...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR THE COLD WATER HAVE PREVENTED THE HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. AS A RESULT...THE SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY HAVE BEEN DROPPED. WILL RE- EVALUATE THE COASTAL WATERS AS 5 FT SEAS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO REACH GIVEN NW GUSTS AROUND 25 KT...OUTSIDE OF THE SRN COASTAL ZONES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS 15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL HOLD ON INTO THE EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR SHORT TERM...ALB/MPR LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...BMD/JDM MARINE...SAM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.