Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 171100 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 700 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary remains over the Mid Atlantic today as high pressure builds over the Northeast states. The next cold front affects the area Friday into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Latest sfc analysis shows a weak stalled frontal bndry over the area with high pressure over the Northeast states. Expect some patchy fog this morning especially over eastern areas, with vsbys quickly improving later this morning. Deep layer moisture increases today, and with the sfc bndry in the vicinity and weak impulses aloft, there will be a chance of shras/tstms especially inland with dry conditions expected near the coast. Otws, some increasing cloudiness today with high temps in the upr 80s to near 90 inland and mid 80s near the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Frontal boundary remains in the vicinity tonight. Enough moisture and support noted to keep slight chc-chc pops across the area, with the best chance over nrn areas. Low temps in the low to mid 70s. Plenty of moisture around the region Friday with a sfc trof providing the trigger for convection to develop. Not expecting a washout, but do think the chc for pcpn will be around all day. More humid as well with heat indices reaching at least 100 in many spots. Widespread severe wx is not expected at this time, but gusty winds and locally heavy downpours are possible. Highs upr 80s to lwr 90s. Frontal boundary slowly drifts se across the region Friday night and Saturday keeping the chc for pcpn going. Drier air behind the front will likely cut off any convection across nwrn most zones Sat. Lows Fri night 70-75. Highs Sat 85-90. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Cold front remains stalled near the Mid Atlantic Coast Sat night into Sun morning before sagging well south of the area by Sun aftn. Any showers/storms invof the front will diminish as the front moves farther south of the region. For the rest of Sun into Sun night, sfc high pressure builds north of the area, and although temperatures should experience little to no change, dewpoints will drop around 5 degrees thus feeling a tad cooler. High pressure slides off the coast on Mon... bringing a return to warm air advection and increasingly more humid conditions. Sfc features rather diffuse during the early part of next week, however seabreeze boundaries with plenty of moisture present will keep a chance for thunderstorms in the forecast during this time. Highs generally mid-upper 80s to lower 90s; low-mid 80s beaches. Lows Sat/Sun nights generally upper 60s NW to around 75F SE. Lows Mon/Tue nights generally 70-75F. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Patchy fog to start the 12Z TAF period. Any sub-VFR aviation conditions will improve this morning as the fog dissipates quickly after sunrise with VFR conditions returning to the region. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will once again develop this afternoon, particularly across the piedmont. Generally light and variable winds are anticipated this morning with winds becoming southerly and increasing to 5-10 knots this afternoon. Outlook: A cold front approaches the region Friday into Saturday bringing another chance for showers, thunderstorms, and sub-VFR conditions. High pressure builds back into the region Sunday. && .MARINE... Latest obs reflect light S-SW flow over the waters this morning. A weak boundary stalled just north of the waters and extending back into the Ohio Valley will lift farther north into the northeast today, as low pressure crosses the upper Great Lakes today through tonight. Pressure gradient begins to tighten today across the local area as the associated (slow-moving) cold front tracks into the Ohio Valley today, eventually crossing the mountains Fri before reaching the waters late Fri night into Saturday morning. Winds speeds increase to an average of 10-15kt this aftn...initially SE and then veering to S-SW late tonight/early Fri morning into Fri evening as the front approaches. Hi-res models indicate some southerly channeling late tonight through Friday, bringing winds to near SCA thresholds late tonight thru Fri morning and again Fri aftn. However, have held winds at 15kt for now with probabilities favoring predominate sub-SCA winds. Some elevated winds possible with T- storms Friday aftn and night. This surge of winds would be short- lived and convective in nature and therefore likely better addressed with targeted SMW/MWS. Seas average 2-3ft through this period, but may touch 4ft out near 20NM as the front crosses the waters Fri night. Winds become more W-SW post-frontal with speeds aob 10kt early Sat morning into Sun morning as the front stalls near the Mid Atlantic Coast Sat night and early Sunday, and then become more onshore Sun aftn into Mon as the front sags farther south of the area. Latest data indicating long second periods have largely abated with distant Hurricane Gert accelerating farther NE away from the CONUS, and well SE of Atlantic Canada. One more day of elevated (moderate) rip current risk over northern area beaches, with low rip risk across SE VA/NE NC Outer Banks. Given a mid to late morning low tide cycle, rip risk should be lower for northern beaches for the afternoon and evening. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...MAS/MPR LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...AJB/MAS MARINE...MAM

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