Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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081 FXUS61 KAKQ 232338 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 738 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front approaches the region from the northwest tonight. The remnants of Tropical Depression Cindy will cross the region with the cold front on Saturday. The front then stalls farther south off the Carolinas Sunday and Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... Based on the latest sat / radar and high res data, went ahead and dropped pops for the evening hours as the cap was never able to be broken. Thus, a warm, muggy but dry evening can be expected across the area. Will have to wait until after midnight before any pcpn associated with Cindy arrives across the region. Will address this part of the forecast with the late evening update. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Rain chances in the short term mainly confined to late tonight through Saturday night, as the remnants of Cindy get absorbed and essentially merge into a frontal wave, lifting from the Lower Ohio Valley toward the southern Mid-Atlantic late tonight through Saturday afternoon. Any scattered showers and storms quickly wane by early evening with loss of heating. We are then mainly dry until after midnight, as the surface front approaches from the NW, dragging the remnants of TD Cindy across the local area along with it. The front will supply enough lift for a narrow area of showers and an isolated thunderstorm moving across the area after midnight tonight into early Saturday morning. Short-lived moderate to heavy showers would be efficient rainfall producers, but any flooding concerns would be limited, as showers should be progressive. Partly to mostly cloudy outside of any showers, and turning breezy overnight as winds increase, owing to tightening pressure gradient between approaching front and Bermuda ridge offshore. Look for winds out of the SW to gust to around 20-25 mph overnight. Early morning lows mainly in the 70s. Overall trend of 12z suite has been towards a more progressive solution with the front and frontal wave (remnants of TD). Behind this feature, models are in good agreement with shearing the precip apart Saturday morning. Meanwhile, an upper trough over the Midwest will slowly dig south and help to push the front east across the the Bermuda High also retreats to the east. Maintained 40-60% rain chances over the coastal plain during this period for the afternoon and evening...and into the overnight hours Sunday morning, as sct convection develops as the front gets hung up across the SE Coast into the Carolinas Sat afternoon and evening. Warm and muggy yet again with highs Saturday generally in the upper 80s to around 90. Cooler, drier air filters in from the northwest behind the front for Sat night and Sunday, bringing a pleasant end to the weekend wx-wise. Lows Saturday night in the low- mid 60s far NW, upper 60s inland, lower 70s SE. Dewpoints lower 60s NW to lower 70s SE. Lingering spotty convection along the Albemarle Sound will come to an end Sunday morning with the rest of the area remaining dry. A much more comfortable afternoon and evening Sunday, with highs in the mid 80s (lower 80s beaches), and dewpoints in the upper 50s NW to mid 60s SE. Comfortable sleeping weather Sunday night with lows in the upper 50s NW to upper 60s SE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Long term period will feature generally dry wx with slightly below normal temps on avg. For Sun night/Mon, aforementioned cold front pushes farther offshore leading to light NW flow and decreasing clouds. After low temps in the 60s Sun night, expect high temps in the low/mid 80s Mon. Another cold front crosses the area Mon night, but the fropa should be dry due to a lack of moisture. Cooler temps then for Tue with highs only in the mid/upr 70s most areas. Sfc high pres builds directly over the area Tue night/Wed behind a mid-level trough pushing offshore. Dry again for Thu as the high slides offshore allowing for S/SW to develop across the Mid Atlc and temps to max out in the mid 80s. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR conditions to start the forecast period as Bermuda high pressure has prevented any convection from developing today. Gusty SW winds at 15-20 KTS continue due to a fairly decent low level jet. In fact, data suggests a few hours of LLWS at SBY after midnight. The remnant circulation of Cindy is progged to track across northern Va late tonight and Sat morning with a trailing cold front crossing the area during the day. Latest data suggests the best support and steadiest pcpn with this feature falls north of the track leaving AKQ fa in a warm and hunmid airmass with only sct shwrs. Thus, went ahead with VCSH both at RIC / SBY between 10-13Z for now. Although some elevated convection is possible at this time, kept thunder out of the forecast. The cold front progged to settle across sern VA / ne NC Sat afternoon. Models suggest sct convection develops along it but not widespread enough to include at any one TAF site attm. Elected to go with a BKN CU deck around 5K ft. Outlook: VFR conditions expected early next week as high pressure builds back into the region.
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&& .MARINE... No significant changes to the marine forecast this evening. SCA hazards continue as planned for tonight into Sat as the pres gradient tightens ahead of an approaching cold front. Expect winds to incrase later tonight to mainly 15-20 kt over all waterst, gusting up to 25-30 kt over the ocean where seas will increase to 5-7 ft out 20 nm. Winds decrease as the front slides through the area Sat afternoon, so all headlines will end during the day Sat, with the last ones being the northern cstl waters for seas around 5 ft. Little in the way of CAA behind the front, so anticipate winds mainly aob 10 kt on Sun and Mon, with 1-2 ft waves over the Bay and 2-3 ft seas over cstl waters. Another cold front crosses the region Mon night, but again CAA is weak following the front so expected sub-SCA conditions. Sfc high pres returns for the middle of next week. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ633- 635>638-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ632-634- 654. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM/MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MAM LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...MPR MARINE...MAS/JAO is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.