Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 161941 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 341 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cool Canadian high pressure builds into the region tonight and Tuesday, and then remains over the area through the remainder of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Lingering post frontal showers this afternoon persist in the east as the upper trough continues to push through. Areas of rain will push off the coast this evening with some lingering rain over northeast portions of NC after 00z. Skies remain cloudy to mostly cloudy for a time before starting to clear tonight from west to east. Temperatures will drop quickly in areas across the piedmont tonight where skies clear first winds lessen. Expect some mixing overnight with a little wind which should mitigate patchy frost north and west of Richmond where some reading in the upper 30s could occur. Generally overnight lows in the upper 30s to around 40 western piedmont, 40 to 43 central VA and MD then mid to upper 40s at the coast. However a secondary surge of cool air overnight will keep winds up and conditions breezy in areas near the Bay and coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Continued breezy Tuesday morning especially in the east as high pressure builds in form the west. Conditions become more calm by afternoon with the high directly over the region. With sunny skies highs will moderate some compared to Monday with temperatures generally in the mid 60s. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will be the coldest as winds remain calm and dewpoints low as we head into Tuesday evening. Expect lows to drop into the mid to upper 30s across the western piedmont. This will be a best chance for patchy frost (Wed am) and have added a mention of areas of frost to the forecast for Wed am generally across the piedmont and even interior portions of MD Eastern Shore. Closer to the coast lows should average low to mid 40s with upper 40s to near 50 at the immediate coast. Expect a gradual warning trend and continued dry Wed and Thu as the ridge remains in place this week. Thu will see highs around 70 and low to mid 70s Friday. Overnight lows will also warm Wed and Thu night with lows ranging form the upper 30s to lower 40s well inland to 50s at the coast. Again Tuesday night/Wednesday morning will the coldest with the best chance for front Wed am. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure slowly builds over the area through Sat then moves off the coast Sun/Mon. Dry conditions continue along with a slow warming trend. Highs Fri 70-75. Lows upr 40s-upr 50s. Highs Sat/Sun in the mid-upr 70s except 70-75 along the coast. Lows sat nite 50-60. Lows Sun nite in the lwr 50s-lwr 60s. Models show the next cold front approaching Mon. GFS quicker moving it east, ECMWF a bit slower. Will go with low chc pops mainly in the afternoon then chc pops Mon nite. Highs in the mid-upr 70s. Lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Post frontal rainfall will continue to move east this afternoon across primarily PHF...ORF and ECG. Rain has ended at both RIC and SBY. Rainfall across the southeast should be mainly light and will taper off across southeast VA by 21-22z and ECG by 22-00z. Conditions were mostly VFR with some MVFR cigs limited to far southeast VA and eastern NC. Ceilings will lift across the southeast to VFR through late afternoon and early evening. NNW winds in the wake of the front will continue to average 10-15kt, and gusts up to 20-25kt along the coast. High pressure and a drier airmass move into the region overnight and will persist over the area through Friday. && .MARINE...
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Latest sfc analysis shows a cold front pushing offshore with broad high pressure building into the OH Valley. The front pushes farther off the coast tonight, with strong-SCA conditions over much of the wtrs continuing behind the front with more CAA expected tonight. Winds will mainly gust up to 30 kt over the Bay and ocean, with a few gusts up to 35 kt psbl tonight. Expect 15-25 kt winds over the Sound and rivers with waves over the Bay of 3-5 ft and seas over the ocean up to 6-8 ft, highest over southern cstl wtrs. The high then slides into the area late Tue leading to improving marine conditions, with just some lingering 5-6 ft seas over southern cstl wtrs. The high will remain over the area through the end of the week with an extended period of sub-SCA conditions expected.
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&& .EQUIPMENT... The KAKQ radar will be down through Wednesday, October 18th for radome repairs. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634- 638. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ633-650-652. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ654-656. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Tuesday night for ANZ658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JAO NEAR TERM...JAO SHORT TERM...JAO LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...AJZ/JAO MARINE...MAS EQUIPMENT...

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