Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 010220 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1020 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 378 HAS EXPIRED. HOWEVER...LATEST REGIONAL RADAR DEPICTS SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND NE NC...WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE PIEDMONT. THIS IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND SFC TROUGH DROPPING OVER THE PIEDMONT. SPC MESOANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE ALONG WITH 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THE RESULT WILL BE AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS THRU 12-2 AM. SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A NEW WATCH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. POPS TAPER OFF AFTER 1-2 AM WITH PARTIAL CLEARING LATE (ESPECIALLY W). MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING ERN VA. LOW TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE REGION WEDS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXITS THE NE COAST. OVERALL...THERE IS LITTLE FORCING IN DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW. SFC TROUGH ALSO LOCATES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW END CHANCE POPS CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC TROUGH. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDS NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN NC AS ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE LOCATES OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. 20-30 POPS THURS MORNING INCREASE TO 40-50 POPS THURS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND CONTINUING THRU THE OVERNIGHT. PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES THURS NIGHT IN DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN CONCERT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THURS NIGHT. DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL (UP TO 600 PCT OF NORMAL THIS PAST WEEK)...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND HAS BEEN HEADLINED IN THE HWO. 72 HR RAINFALL TOTALS (INCLUDING TODAY) RANGE FROM OVER AN INCH FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH NEAR THE COAST. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS THURS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S. LOWS THURS NIGHT IN THE MID- UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH. BOUNDARY AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRI AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID MS VALLEY LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL MAINTAIN SOLID CHANCE POPS FRI AS SEVERAL WAVES CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION. HIGHS FRI IN THE LOW-MID 80S (UPPER 70S FAR NW) UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY-CLOUDY SKIES. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE HOLIDAY WKEND / MED RANGE PERIOD. MODELS STALL WAVY FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC REGION SAT. GFS WANTS TO PUSH THIS BNDRY INTO NORTH CAROLINA SUN AS WEAK HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WHILE ECMWF KEEPS THE BNDRY NEARLY STNRY ACROSS THE RGN. THE BNDRY PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRNT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE DISTURBANCE RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT. HIGHS SAT / SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON / TUE. LOWS U60S-M70S. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. S/SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NW OF THE AREA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR SCT TSTMS THIS EVENING. TSTMS ARE PSBL AGAIN WED AFTN AND EVENING THOUGH NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY. OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTM WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE CONVECTION. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ON THU AND FRI. && .MARINE... WILL KEEP CRNT SCA HEADLINES UP FOR THE CHES BAY TONIGHT AS PRS GRDNT TIGHTENS ENOUGH FOR MARGINAL (15-20 KT) WNDS. GRDNT RELAXES WED MORNING KEEPING A WEAKER SLY/SWLY FLOW (10-15 KT) THRU WED NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. THE FRNT DROPS INTO THE AREA FM THE NW ON THU...WITH WINDS BCMG LIGHT AND VRBL AS THE FRNT STALLS THE LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THU NIGHT AND FRI. WAVES AVGG 1-2 FT AND SEAS AVGG 2-4 FT THRU THE WEEKEND. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632- 634. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM NEAR TERM...AJZ/SAM SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...LSA MARINE...MPR

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