Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 270919 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA 419 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure slides offshore today ahead of a warm front, which lifts through the region tonight into Tuesday. Broad southwest flow will allow temperatures to warm well above normal Tuesday and Wednesday. A strong cold front approaches from the west Wednesday and crosses the region Wednesday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... High pressure is across the Ern Carolinas into SE VA early this morning with high clouds arriving from the W. Temperatures have dropped into the upper 20s to low 30s, with mid/upper 30s for coastal SE VA/NE NC. These values seem much cooler given recent warmth, but are actually around seasonal averages. Clouds increase today (especially N) as the surface high moves offshore and WAA aloft commences. Additionally moisture begins streaming into the region from the southwest in strong zonal flow. The forecast remains dry with temperatures generally warming into the lower 60s (upper 50s far nrn counties and MD/VA Eastern Shore). && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A warm front is progged to lift through the region tonight into Tuesday morning as a broad mid/upper ridge builds over the Ern Conus. Cloud cover increases across srn VA/NE NC along with sct showers for coastal SE VA/NE NC in vicinity of a coastal trough, mainly after midnight. Much milder tonight with lows ranging from the mid 40s N/NE to low 50s SE. Partial clearing is possible across the nrn zones, and if this occurs lows could drop into the low 40s. The warm front lifts N of the region Tuesday into Tuesday night. There will be minimal forcing for any showers within the warm sector and lapse rates and instability are marginal at best, so no thunder is expected at this time. PoPs will generally be aob 20% Tuesday through Tuesday night, although the 27/00z GFS/ECMWF show an impulse tracking across the top of the ridge Tuesday evening, so a 30-50% PoP is forecast for far N/NE portions. Much warmer Tuesday with highs ranging from the upper 60s N to the low/mid 70s SE (low 60s at the immediate coast of the Ern Shore). Mild Tuesday night with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s, with some patchy stratus possible late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Strong WAA continues into Wednesday with 850mb temperature rising to +12-15C. Meanwhile, a strong cold front is progged to reach the Appalachians by later Wednesday aftn. A chc of showers will linger NE in the morning, but much of the area should be dry late morning, through mid-aftn. Becoming partly sunny and breezy, with a SSW wind potentially gusting up to 30-35 mph during the aftn. Very warm with high temperatures rising into the upper 70s to around 80 (locally cooler at the immediate Atlantic coast of the Ern Shore). The 27/00z ECMWF seems a rather good compromise for frontal timing, Wednesday evening as it is a mid-point between the faster GFS and slower NAM. Likely PoPs for showers/tstms spread across the area Wednesday evening and then taper off NW-SE after midnight as cooler/drier air arrives from the NW. The flow aloft will be very strong in vicinity of the front, up to 140kt at 200mb, and 70-80kt at 500mb. This will yield 0-6km bulk shear values of 50-60kt. However, 850-700mb lapse rates are marginal, and the strong SW flow may shunt the best instability offshore prior to the arrival of tstms. The wind field alone will result in a slight risk for severe tstms. However, at this time the synoptic/kinematic/thermodynamic factors do not seem to line up as well as last Saturday, so the same classic storm organization is not expected at this time. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... An active northern stream with a west to northwest flow will bring a few days of cooler weather late in the week. An upper trough will spread over the Ern Conus Thursday, with the front pushing offshore and much cooler 850mb temperatures arriving (-2 to -5C). A weak short wave will bring a small chance for rain (20 to 30 percent) Friday over northeast portions of the area (mainly northern neck and lower Eastern Shore). This will enhance the cooler air aloft with 850mb temperatures dropping to -6 to -10C by 00z Saturday. Temperatures will be closer to normal during the long term than those of the recent past. Temperatures will lower Thursday through Saturday then warm some on Sunday. Highs in the 50s to around 60 Thursday and lower to the mid 40s to lower 50s by Saturday then increase to between 60 and 65 Sunday except 50s along the coast. Lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s Thursday morning lower to the 30s the rest of the week with some upper 20s inland areas Saturday morning. && .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure is centered along the coast as of 06z with a clear sky and a calm to very light wind. Mid and high clouds will increase from W-E after 10z as high pressure begins to slide offshore. The wind will become S today as the high moves offshore with speeds around 8-12kt during the afternoon under sct-bkn clouds ~15kft. A warm front lifts across the region tonight. This could produce a few showers across coastal SE VA/NE NC along with periodic MVFR cigs late tonight (mainly after 06z Tuesday). Vsby of 3-5sm is also possible around 12z Tuesday. The warm front lifts N of the region Tuesday with only a minimal chc of showers Tuesday/Tuesday night, aside from a 30-50% chc for SBY Tuesday evening. A strong cold front will approach the region from the west on Wednesday, cross the region Wednesday evening, and push offshore late Wednesday night. This cold front will bring a chc of showers/tstms later Wednesday aftn and evening. High pressure returns Thursday and Thursday night, followed by a secondary, mainly dry cold front Friday. && .MARINE... High pressure over the Mid Atlantic States settled the winds to mainly less than 10 knots Sunday afternoon. Seas of 3 to 4 ft will slowly subside overnight. The high slowly moves off the coast and winds begin to increase from the south and southwest. The next SCA will begin Tuesday night as seas build back up to 4 to 5 ft. A strong cold front approaches from the west and winds increase to SCA criteria in the Bay on Wednesday. SCA will be needed through Thursday in portions due to post frontal winds and seas. && .CLIMATE... Feb 2017 is shaping up to rank among the warmest on record given continued warmth over the next week. Shown below are the top 3 warmest February`s on record. Expecting RIC and ORF to be the 2nd warmest and for ECG to be at least within the top 3 warmest. SBY looks on track to be the 4th or 5th warmest. Warmest February`s on record (average temps): * RIC: (most likely finish for 2017: 2nd warmest) 1) 49.9 (1890) 2) 48.5 (1976) 3) 48.1 (1884) * ORF: (most likely finish for 2017: 2nd warmest) 1) 52.4 (1890) 2) 50.5 (1909) 3) 50.1 (1990) * SBY: (most likely finish for 2017: 4th warmest) 1) 46.1 (1976) 2) 45.8 (1984) 3) 45.7 (1925) * ECG: (most likely finish for 2017: 3rd warmest) 1) 52.1 (1990) 2) 51.8 (1939) 3) 50.3 (1976) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MRD NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/MRD LONG TERM...AJZ/LSA AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...LSA CLIMATE...

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