Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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264 FXUS61 KAKQ 190536 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 136 AM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain just offshore through Thursday, bringing warm and dry conditions to the local area. A cold front crosses the region on Friday, bringing increased rain chances for Friday and near seasonable temperatures back to the region for the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Dry wx overnight with a mostly clear sky as the eastern seaboard is under the influence of an upper-level ridge. Cannot rule out early morning patchy fog, but it is not likely in most areas due to ~5 kt winds and dew pts generally being a least a few degrees lwr than temps. Pattern is also similar to Tuesday morning when there wasn`t much fog. Low temps in the low-mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Dry wx continues into Wed with the area still under the influence of high pressure and any precip expected to stay W/N of the area. Main story Wed will be the temps, with near record highs expected (see the Climate section below for details). Temps are forecasted to reach the mid-upper 80s in most areas, with lwr 80s near the coast. A cold front and associated mid-level trough traverse the TN/OH Valleys Wed night/Thu. Will maintain a dry forecast attm, with moisture associated with an offshore passing tropical low expected to not impact the fa. Mild/warm conditions continue each period with lows Wed night averaging in the mid 60s and highs Thu in the low-mid 80s. Temps should stay a few degrees below records. For Fri...aforementioned frnt and trough cross the Mid Atlc. Shras will move across the region fm Fri morning through aftn. PoPs range from 30% se to 50% nw, and may have to be increased in future forecasts depending on how widespread the rain is expected to be. Temps lwr than previous days...highs only in the lo-mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Cold front continues to push well off the coast Fri night as low pres tracks NE through nrn New England. Mainly slight chc PoPs will be confined to Fri eve and nrn portions of FA. Dry/cool deep layered NW Flow Sat-Sun. Gusty WNW winds Sat wane Sat night-Sun. Flo aloft becomes zonal (briefly) Mon resulting in a slight warming trend before a secondary push of dry/cool air arrives by Tue. Lows Fri night from the u40s W to m50s at the coast. Highs Sat 60- 65F. Lows Sat night from around 40F NW to near 50F at the immediate coast. Highs Sun in the l-m60s. Lows Sun night in the u40s- l50s. Highs Mon 65-70F. Low Mon night from the l40s W to l50s at the coast. Highs Tue in the l60s. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 06z...Sfc hi pres and upper-level ridging keep vfr conditions and SKC across area terminals through the TAF period. With the sfc high offshore, winds will be out of the s/sw and up to 10-15 kt through sunset. Hi-Res guidance continues to go with widespread MVFR vsby after 09z. However, given current obs and w/ winds remaining ~5kt, will maintain predominate VFR conditions this morning. Did allow for a brief period or two of MVFR w/a tempo at SBY, in expectation of similar condition to last evening. Otherwise, mainly clear/dry wx continues Today and tonight. Outlook: Dry weather/VFR conditions persist Wed night through Thursday. The next chance for showers arrives Friday as a cold front crosses the area. Dry weather returns for the weekend. && .MARINE... Sfc hi pres remains invof the Carolinas this afternoon...and will stay in place into Wed. Sfc low pres tracking into SE Canada will briefly tighten the sfc pres gradient over the waters tonight into Wed morning. SSW winds will average 10-20 kt all waters during that timeframe. Ongoing long period swells on ocean (seas mainly to 4 ft) are expected to slowly diminish through midweek. Hi pres remains invof coastal Carolinas Wed through Thu as an upper trough/sfc cold front begin to sharpen invof MS valley into OH/TN valleys. Winds will be mainly S aob 10kt with seas 2-4 ft/waves 1-2 ft. The cold front will be approaching the waters on Friday while low pres deepens well ESE of Cape Hatteras. The cold front (crossing the mid Atlantic Fri afternoon/evening) should keep the low well out to sea Fri night/early Sat. Expecting lo lvl CAA and increased WNW winds (for period of SCAs) post cold front Fri night into Sat...waning by Sun (afternoon). && .CLIMATE... Very warm conditions continue through Thursday with the possibility of challenging some records today. Current daily records are listed below: * Record Highs: * Wed (10/19) Thu (10/20) * RIC 87 (1938) 89 (1984) * ORF 87 (2007) 87 (1984) * SBY 84 (1938) 84 (1984) * Record high Mins: * Wed (10/19) Thu (10/20) * RIC 73 (2007) 68 (1916) * ORF 73 (2007) 70 (1916) * SBY 71 (2007) 68 (1916) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...MAM MARINE...ALB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.