Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KAKQ 260132
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
932 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016
High pressure prevails over the region through Tuesday. A weak front
drops into the region Tuesday night, then lingers across the
region through most of the week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Very warm and humid conditions continue acrs the region late this
evening, as high pressure remains anchored off the SE cst. Sctd
showers and tstms were occurring well to the W and N of the CWA
this evening, well in advance of a weak cold front. This activity
may affect the Nrn third of the area ovrngt into early Tue
morning, as the weak front approaches fm the N. Otherwise, mostly
clear to partly cloudy with lows in the mid to upr 70s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tuesday starts off dry as high pressure continues to dominate.
Remaining hot as 1000-850mb thickness values only drop to around
1444m and 850mb temperatures drop only to 21-22C. This supports
highs in the mid 90s again. Dewpoints remain in the low/mid 70s
with heat indices of 102-108. Will again have a heat advisory for
much of our CWA (minus the lower MD eastern shore). The ridge
breaks down enough Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening to allow
a weak front to drop into the area and shortwave energy to cross
the mountains. Models a bit faster in developing tstms across the
area by 18Z. Will carry a 30-40% chc of showers/tstms from the
Ches Bay on west and also south into NC...with slght chc pops for
the rest of the Eastern Shore. The threat of severe wx will be low
(marginal risk) but gusty winds and locally heavy downpours will
be possible in any tstm.
Tstm chcs continue Tues nite as the boundary sags south across the
area. Best support for tstms shifts towards the coast after
midnite. Still warm and humid with lows in the 70s.
Westerly flow aloft will allow for the boundary to stall over the
region Wednesday/Thursday. Enough moisture and support for chc
pops (30-40%) across the area both days. Highs reach the low to
mid 90s under a partly sunny sky. Dewpoints will be highest
across se VA/ne NC with heat indices approaching 105 both
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Stacked high pressure over the Southeast Coast will briefly
breakdown and wsw flow aloft will persist Thu night through
Sat night...followed by a return to more zonal/westerly flow
aloft on Sun. A series of weather disturbances will pass
across the region as a thermal boundary/lee trough remains
over the area. A cold front is expected to approach the region
on Sun. Overall, this weather pattern will provide a focus for
thunderstorm development and keep a chance for storms in the
forecast each aftn/evening. Areal coverage fluctuates with each
passing model run and will therefore maintain more broad brushed
POP grids. Pwats around 2.00-2.25 inches and dewpoints generally
in the low-mid 70s will result in muggy conditions with ample
moisture present across the area. Therefore, anticipated impacts
from any thunderstorms will be locally heavy rainfall due to
weak steering flow aloft (20kt average) and strong gusty winds.
Combine the humidity with temperatures remaining in the
lower 90s, and heat indices will continue to run around
100-104 degrees with a few pockets in far SE VA/NE NC reaching
105-106 degrees for an hour or two each aftn. Lows generally in
the low-mid 70s inland and mid-upper 70s beaches.
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will remain off the Southeast coast. A surface trough
will extend from northeast to southwest across the Mid Atlantic
States ahead of a weak cold front. The front will reach central
Virginia and the lower Maryland Eastern Shore late Tuesday. The
front will remain in the general vicinity through the rest of the
Thunderstorms were widespread over southeast Pennsylvania at 23z.
These thunderstorms will move to the southeast but are unlikely to
affect SBY. Other thunderstorms are expected Tuesday afternoon.
Otherwise...VFR conditions are expected with scattered to broken mid
and high level clouds.
OUTLOOK...Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected
A cold front passes just north of the area tonight and exits the
New England coast by morning. A surface boundary is expected to
stall across nrn VA/Delmarva and fluctuate in this area through
the rest of this week as stacked high pressure remains steadfast
over the Southeast Coast.
Strongest winds will occur this aftn through tonight with speeds
of 10-15kt in a generally s-sw wind direction. Seas of 2-3ft may
briefly build to 3-4ft north of Cape Charles Light after midnight
into early Tue morning. Waves in srn Ches Bay are expected to do
the same...starting at 1-2ft and then building to 2-3ft during the
same timeframe. Winds diminish to speeds aob 10kt by Tue aftn and
will remain at those speeds the rest of the week. Wind direction
will generally be southerly. Persistent westerly/zonal flow aloft
will allow a series of weather disturbances to cross the region
and keep a chance for thunderstorms in the forecast each
aftn/evening. Seas will continue to average 2-3ft/waves 1-2ft.
Norfolk reached 101 degrees on Monday. This is the first time that
it reached 100 degrees or higher on two consecutive days since
July 22-23, 2011.
No records have been set so far during the current heat spell.
Records Mon (7/25)
* RIC: 105 (2010) Actual high 96
* ORF: 105 (2010) Actual high 101
* SBY: 100 (2010) Actual high 95
* ECG: 97 (1949) Actual high 94
Tuesday will see highs well into the 90s. Forecast highs are below
the record highs for the 26th but the record of 97 at ECG appears
to be the one closest to being threatened.
Records Tue (7/26)
* RIC: 100 (1940)
* ORF: 100 (1940)
* SBY: 102 (1940)
* ECG: 97 (1949)
NC...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ012>017-
VA...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for VAZ048-060>062-