Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 311204 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 704 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY...AND PUSH OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS STRONG SFC LOW PRESSURE <990 MB NOW WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY RIDGING INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. COLD/CLEAR MORNING ACRS THE LOCAL AREA WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20S...BUT SOME AREAS WEST OF I-95 ARE INTO THE TEENS (THIS IS WHERE WINDS HAVE STARTED TO DE-COUPLE). CLOSER TO THE COAST...STILL GETTING FREQUENT GUSTS TO 20-30 MPH...WITH A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY WINDIER SPOTS ALONG THE BAY SEEING AN OCCASIONAL GUST AS HIGH AS 35 MPH. WIND CHILLS ARE AS LOW AS THE SINGLE DIGITS ON THE ERN SHORE...MAINLY IN THE TEENS ELSEWHERE. GENERAL THEM WILL BE THAT COLDEST AREAS IN TERMS OF ACTUAL TEMPERATURE WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO WIND SO NOT ANY CONCERN FOR A WIND CHILL ADSY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AND WILL BECOME CENTERED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NW OVER THE ERN SHORE...WHILE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WILL SEE DIMINISHING WINDS SHIFT TO THE W LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTN. SUNNY TODAY...BUT COLD WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER-MID 40S ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC TO THE LOWER 30S ON THE MD ERN SHORE. TEMPS DROP FAST THIS EVENING...THEN BECOME NEARLY STEADY. CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT FLOW...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS/LWR 20S NE TO THE LWR- MID 20S ELSEWHERE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
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NAM/GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER AGREEMENT W/ THE HANDLING OF THE UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM. A MORE NRN TRACK PREVAILS...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE PUSHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH PA/NJ SUN NIGHT/MON. THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD WITH A LOW CHC FOR -SN/IP ACRS THE FAR NW COUNTIES SUN MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY NOT AMOUNT TO ANYTHING MEASURABLE GIVEN WEAK LIFT BUT WILL HAVE A 20% POP ACRS THE NW PIEDMONT FOR NOW. THE SYSTEM ACTUALLY LIFTS A BIT BACK TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY SO AREAS OF SRN VA/NE NC SHOULD SEE TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOW 50S WITHOUT MUCH CHC FOR ANY PRECIP. BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...DEEPER MOISTURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AS THE SFC LOW REACHES SRN IN/OH. STILL ONLY A CHC POP FOR AREAS ALONG/EAST OF I-95 THROUGH 03Z...WITH LIKELY POPS W OF I-95 FROM 00Z-03Z. THICKNESSES SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN THROUGHOUT THE CWA...BUT WILL GO WITH A RA/IP MIXTURE AT ONSET OF PCPN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME DUE TO DRY AIR (DEW PTS IN 20S) EVEN AS SFC TEMPS REMAIN WELL ABOVE 32 F (IN THE 40S). XPCG MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS OVR THE FA AS S WNDS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THUS...RA WILL BE THE ONLY FCST P-TYPE SUN NGT INTO MON MRNG. TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT EARLY SUN EVE (IN THE U30S N...L/M40S S)...THEN RISE THEREAFTER INTO MON MRNG (INTO THE 50S ACRS SE VA..40S ELSEWHERE). BY MIDDAY/AFTN MON...DRYING TREND BEGINS...GFS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS BUT ONLY BY A FEW HRS. HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON POPS IN THE AFTN OVER INTERIOR VA AND NC AND SHOULD SEE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. BEST CHC FOR AFTN PRECIP LOOKS TO SHIFT TO NE ZONES. DUE TO WARM START TO THE DAY...THINK COLD AIR WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO AKQ CWA BEFORE SUNSET. WILL CARRY JUST RAIN AS PTYPE IN THE AFTN EXCEPT ACRS THE FAR N AFTER 21Z. HI TEMPS FM THE MID/UPPER 40S NNW TO THE UPPER 50S SE.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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OTHER THAN SOME SOME LINGERING CLOUDS OVER CSTL WTRS ERLY MON EVE...EXPECT CLRG SKIES AND COLD MON NITE AS 1030+ MB HIGH APPRCHS FA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS NORTH TO L20S SOUTH XCPT M20S SERN BEACH AREAS. RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVRHD ERLY TUE THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE. MSTLY SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS IN THE 30S. MSTLY CLR TUE NIGHT. LOWS IN THE 20S. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFICULTY WITH MID WEEK SYSTM AND OFFER UP DIFFERENT TIMING AND MOISTURE SCENARIOS...SO A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST CONTINUES UNTIL MORE MODEL AGREEMENT CAN BE SEEN. HOWEVER... THE TREND IS SLOWER IN BRINGING MSTR NORTH INTO THE FA AS SRN STREAM LOW DVLPS IN THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO THEN TRACKS NE ALONG THE SE AND PSBLY MID ATLNTC COAST BEFORE PULLING NE AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. MODEL GUID SUGGESTS LEANING MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLN. TRENDED DRIER/WARMER ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. XPCT INCRG CLDNS WED NIGHT. WENT WITH LOW CHC POPS ACROSS NC CNTYS WED NIGHT. CHC (LIQUID) POPS WED NITE WITH ONLY ABOUT A 20% POP FOR MIXED SNOW/RAIN LATE ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS. LOWS ARND FREEZING NRN MOST CNTYS TO THE M-U30S OVR THE SOUTH. RAIN CHCS CONT THU XCPT FOR SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH. COLDER...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S SE TO THE 30S OVER THE NORTH. IF THE 00Z ECMWF VERIFIES...THE STRONG HIGH PRS KEEPS SRN STREAM LOW SOUTH WITH LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON FA. THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE MOST OF THIS WINTER GIVEN NO REAL BLOCKING PATTERN SEEN. ITS SOLN WOULD BE COLDER AND DRIER. ANTHR ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW BEHIND THIS SYSTM BY FRIDAY. DCRG CLDNS THU NITE. LOWS IN THE 20S. MSTLY SUNNY FRI. HIGHS IN THE 30S.
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&& .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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NW WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED INLAND THIS MORNING AOB 10 KT THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT PERSIST NEAR THE COAST. OTHERWISE...DRY/SKC CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH INLAND WINDS REMAINING AOB 10 KT. NW GUSTS OF 20-25 KT EXPECTED TO PERSIST THRU THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST. SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE AFTERNOON...BUT HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO STREAM INTO THE REGION AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE SUN AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE SUN NIGHT-EARLY MON MORNING WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE. RAIN ENDS MON AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER RETURNS TUES AND WEDS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NW WEDS NIGHT.
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&& .MARINE...
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AS OF 7AM... WHILE CAA HAS WANED THIS MORNING...STRONG GRADIENT WINDS AND COLD AIR OVER THE WATERS HAS HELPED MAINTAIN GALE CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. HAVE EXTENDED ALL GALE HEADLINES ANOTHER 3 HOURS THRU 10AM. THEREAFTER...SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THRU THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN 5-8 FT THRU THE MORNING...SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE AFTERNOON. PREV DISCUSSION... LATEST WEATHER ANALYSIS OVER THE WATERS DEPICTS LAST EVENINGS COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EWD OVER THE OH VALLEY. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN TANDEM WITH LOW LEVEL CAA HAS RESULTED IN GALE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THEREAFTER...CAA WANES AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS. LOW LEVEL WINDS ALSO SUBSIDE BELOW 30 KT. HOWEVER...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST THRU THE MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES THIS AFTERNOON. 6-9 FT SEAS WILL PERSIST THRU EARLY MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE DAY AND FINALLY DROPPING BELOW 5 FT ALL COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH SLY FLOW AOB 15 KT RETURNING TO THE WATERS. SLY FLOW INCREASES SUN NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH THE WATERS. THE FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MON MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONG NWLY SURGE. A PERIOD OF GALES IS EXPECTED MON NIGHT FOR THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. SEAS BUILDS TO 6 TO 9 FT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUES AND WEDS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS WEDS NIGHT. HAVE EXPANDED THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER AS TEMPS HAVE FALLEN AOB 25 DEGS. MODERATE ICING IS EXPECTED THRU MID MORNING. FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED AGAIN MON NIGHT AS AIR TEMPS OVER THE WATER DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S IN TANDEM WITH STRONG NW GUSTS.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ635>637. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ630>632- 634-650-652-654-656. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>632-634- 652-654-656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633- 638. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...LKB/MPR AVIATION...SAM MARINE...SAM

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