Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KAKQ 241756
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
156 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
Low pressure will move northeast off the New England coast during
today, while high pressure builds in from the west. High pressure
will move right over the area tonight...then slides off the coast
for Wednesday afternoon into Friday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Sfc low pressure currently sits off the New England coast. That
low will continue to lift slowly NE and away from the local area
today. One last piece of energy/associated lift rotating SE on the
back side of the departing low will provide a slight chance for
showers this afternoon (during peak heating). Otherwise, expect
sunshine to mix with some clouds...and warmer temps across the
area. Highs will be in the upr 70s to low 80s.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Broad upper level ridging builds northeast from the Deep South
into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast region Tonight into
Wednesday, before sliding overhead into Thursday. 850mb
temperatures rise to ~15C by Wednesday afternoon...and 16-17c by
Thursday afternoon. BL mixing will reach to around 850mb, and
should result in highs reaching the mid/upper 80s inland, with
low/mid 80s closer to the coast, and upper 70s for the immediate
Atlantic coast of the Ern Shore. After morning lows in the 50s to
near 60, high temperatures creep up about a category area wide
into the upper 80s/around 90 inland (low to mid 80s coastal
sections) on Thursday. Forecast soundings/model cross-sections
indicate rather dry conditions aloft,owing mainly to subsidence
and light downslope flow aloft. Will therefore keep pops in silent
range <10% on Wed, with only slight chc for more seasonally
typical diurnally-driven pulse convection on Thursday afternoon
and early evening. Light downslope flow will likely keep areal
coverage of any convection on the low side, and will also serve to
mix dewpoints down into the mid/upper 50s in the mid to late
afternoon hours both Wed/Thu.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Bermuda sfc high pressure resides over the wrn Atlantic Ocean
through the long term periods as mid-upper level ridging moves
over the ne CONUS during this time. Although the GFS is trying
to develop low pressure over the Caribbean/Bahamas during
Thu night/Fri and then tracking it into the Carolinas Sat-Mon,
the ECMWF is keeping this system suppressed farther south due
to mid-upper ridging well-rooted across the ne CONUS through
at least Sun night before beginning to impact the Mid Atlantic
Region. WPC forecast is also very similar to the ECMWF and am
starting to lean more twd this warmer and drier solution...
especially since GFS ensembles support the GFS as more of an
outlier at this point. Will trend the long range forecast in
this direction regarding precip and temperatures.
High temps continue to run above normal throughout the extended
forecast periods and are now closer to being around 10 degrees
above normal Fri (highs in the upper 80s inland...upper 70s to
mid 80s immediate coast). For Sat-Mon, temps are around
5-7 degrees above normal (highs in the mid 80s Sat/Sun and
lower 80s Mon). Low temps also still trending around
5-10 degrees above normal Thu-Sun nights (lows generally in
the mid 60s).
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Sfc low pressure situated from the New England coast sw to NJ,
Drier air and VFR conditions prevail acrs the local area with a W
flow, although sct/bkn CU are now pushing SE from the mtns and
look to overspread area terminals shortly. Still VFR in any cigs
that prevail for a few hrs and while an isolated shower or tstm
can`t be ruled out through around 00Z this evening, the
probability is too low to include in any TAF. A much more summer
like pattern is expected for the rest of the week. VFR conditions
expected mostly, however one could not rule out some patchy fog
late at night/through sunrise especially with all of the moisture
from recent rains. Not much in the way of rain chances, but
isolated late aftn/evening tstms will be possible Thu and Fri. A
somewhat more unsettled pattern potentially returns by Sat night/Sunday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
Lo pres well e of DE/srn NJ early this mrng tracks sloly ne and away
fm the mdatlc rgn tda. Conds blo SCA for the wtrs tda. WNW wnds
aob 15 kt become SW lt. Hi pres sfc-aloft builds acrs the wtrs
tngt- Wed...then rmns nr the mdatlc wtrs through
Fri/Sat...providing mnly SSW wnds blo 15 kt. Will cont to monitor
psbl lo pres development off SE conus cst lt wk into the
wknd...which may bring incrsd SE wnds and deteriorating conds ovr
the local wtrs.
The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41".
May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at
Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond
1. 9.13" 1889
2. 8.98" 1873
3. 8.87" 1972
4. 8.67" 1886
5. 8.59" 2003
6. 8.41" 2016 (to date)