Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 251811 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 111 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE THEN TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE NW PORTION OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE THIS MORNING EVIDENCED BY DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. AREAS OF -RA CONTINUE TO TRACK NE ACROSS SE VA/NE NC ASSOCIATED WITH AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM A STRONG LLJ AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RAIN SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY OVER THESE LOCATIONS AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE E...AND LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED AS THE FRONT IS IN THE VICINITY OF A RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD BUT NOT AS WARM AS YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND THESE VALUES SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA...AND OCCASIONAL -RA SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TRACKS NNE TONIGHT REACHING A POSITION NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT BY 12Z WED. THE 25/00Z SUITE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEMONSTRATE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. A BAND OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS PROGGED TO LIFT OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. MID- LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION RAPIDLY INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND COMBINED WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. POPS INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE UPR 40S NW...TO MID 50S SE...AND GRADUALLY FALL OVERNIGHT AS IN SITU WEDGING DEVELOPS DUE TO RAIN AND A LIGHT N WIND. BY 12Z WED TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NW...TO NEAR 50 SE. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING AS MOISTURE REMAINS DEEP AND FORCING REMAINS STRONG. CAA REMAINS RATHER WEAK. HOWEVER...DYNAMICAL COOLING SHOULD DRIVE TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S OVER THE NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES THROUGH WED MORNING...WITH 40S ELSEWHERE. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE/850MB LOW AND CLIMO THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE ACCUMULATING SN WOULD BE ACROSS THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME A 1-2IN ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST OVER LOUISA/FLUVANNA...BORDERED BY LESS THAN 1IN. MOISTURE SHALLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO PCPN SHOULD STEADILY LESSEN IN INTENSITY BEFORE ENDING LATE WED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LOCATIONS THAT CHANGE TO SN COULD ACTUALLY SWITCH BACK OVER TO -RA AS THE INTENSITY WANES. OVERALL LIGHT SN ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE NW OF THE RIC METRO AREA. A BRIEF LULL IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT...BEFORE A SECONDARY CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM DIVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHC OF -SHRA OR -SHSN (OR A MIX THEREOF) TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST BY AFTERNOON WITH PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED FROM W-E. MORNING LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 30 NW...TO THE MID 30S SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z/24 GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL HAVE A DRY FCST FOR THE REGION WITH CHILLY/BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AT THE START...WHICH WILL MODERATE TO ARND OR NEAR NORMAL FOR SUN AND MON. COOL HI PRES WILL BLD INTO AND OVR THE AREA THU NGT AND FRI...THEN SETTLES OFF THE MID ATLC AND SE CST FOR SAT THRU MON. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S FRI...IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S SAT...IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S SUN...AND IN THE 50S MON. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S FRI AND SAT MORNGS...IN THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S SUN MORNG...AND IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S MON MORNG. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY SLIDING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTN AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST OFFSHORE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER NRN FLORIDA WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY (SE COAST/CAROLINAS) AND INTENSIFY TONIGHT...MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WEDNESDAY. A STEADY STREAM OF PRECIPITATION WILL PASS OVER THE SE HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTN/EVENING AND THEN SPREAD INLAND TO COVER ALL OF NE NC...ERN/CNTRL VA...AND THE MD/VA LOWER EASTERN SHORE AFTER 26/0500Z (OR MIDNIGHT EST). CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO LOW- END IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING AS STEADY PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AS RAINFALL RATES BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE COASTAL LOW MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF -RASN WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM KSBY- KRIC-KAVC. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE VICINITY OF KLKU... INCLUDING LOUISA/FLUVANNA COUNTIES. GUSTY N-NW WINDS DEVELOP BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AVERAGE 10-20KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF 25-35KT LIKELY AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN ADVERSE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED LATE WED EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTN BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST AND DISSIPATING. COLDER TEMPS IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW OR -RASN ALONG AND NW OF A GENERAL LINE FROM KSBY-KRIC-KFVX. VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE MUCH FASTER THAN CIGS...WHICH ARE THEN EXPECTED TO IMPROVE/LIFT/BREAK-UP BY THURSDAY EVENING. && .MARINE... UPDATE...SCA FLAGS FOR COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND HAVE BEEN CANCELLED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTN. SEAS ARE 4.6 FT AT BUOY 44009 AND FALLING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MODELS CONSISTENT IN DVLPNG LOW PRS OFF THE SERN COAST TDY...THEN DEEPENING AS IT MOVES NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND MID ATLNTC COAST WED. DATA SUPPORTIVE OF GALE FORCE GUSTS OVR CSTL WTRS (UP TO 40 KTS) AND SRN CHES BAY / CURRITUCK SND (35 KTS) WED. WITH RTHR HIGH CONFIDENCE ATTM...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND HOISTED GALE WRNGS WITH THIS PACKAGE (THUS A SECOND HEADLINE FOR CSTL WTRS GIVEN CRNT CNDTNS)...WITH STRNG SCA`S ACROSS THE MIDDLE BAY AND RIVERS. WINDS N-NE TO START THEN SWITCH TO NW AS SYSTM LIFTS N OF THE AREA WED NIGHT. THE LONGER TRAJECTORY OVER THE WATERS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT ALLOWS SEAS TO BUILD TO BTWN 6-10 FT (HIGHEST OUT NR 20 NM). SCA`S WILL LIKELY REPLACE THE GALES WED NIGHT AS LOW QUICKLY MOVES NE AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. A BRIEF LULL IN WINDS THU MORN BEFORE YET ANTHR CAA SURGE SEEN THU AFTN / EVE BEHIND UPR LVL LOW THAT EXITS OFF THE COAST. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... NO ISSUES WITH TIDAL DEPARTURES ATTM BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH WED DAYTIME HIGH TIDE CYCLE. GUID SUGGESTS TIDAL DEPARTURES ACROSS SRN AREAS RISE TO BTWN 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL WHICH WOULD PUT LEVELS ABOUT 1/2 TO 1 FOOT BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. SEWELLS POINT MAY APPRCH MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS GIVEN THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS DOWN THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE BAY PUSHING / PILING UP THE WATER. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>637. GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ632>634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ631. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ638. GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ654-656- 658. GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAS NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAS SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAS LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...BMD MARINE...BMD/MPR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ

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