-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280831
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
326 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHWEST OF
THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
1040MB SFC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. TSCTNS SHOW ENOUGH MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SKIES TO AVG PT SUNNY. ANTHR DAY WITH
HIGHS SOME 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS H85 TMPS ONLY SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE L-M30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. CLOUDS QUICKLY OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST. THE CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY PREVENT TMPS FROM REACHING THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BLO). DRY THROUGH 12Z SUN. LOWS MID TEENS TO L20S.

LOW PRESSURE EJECTS NE FROM NATIONS MID SECTION SUN WITH ASSCTD
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. YET ANOTHER CHALLENGING
FORECAST AS THE LATEST MODELS SHOW LIGHT PCPN BREAKING OUT ACROSS
NWRN HALF OF FA SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD AIR DISLODGES MAKING
FOR P-TYPE ISSUES. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS AOB
FREEZING WILL MAKE FOR A WINTER MIX OF PCPN AT ONSET BEFORE TMPS
RISE ABOVE FREEZING CHANGING PCPN TO PLAIN RAIN. MODELS OFFER UP
DIFFERENT SOLNS ON WHERE THESE P-TYPE ISSUES WILL BE BUT WILL LEAN
TOWARD A SREF SOLN WHICH SEEMS TO BE A COMPROMISE ATTM.

GRIDS WILL SHOW LOW CHC POPS FOR A MIXTURE OF SNOW/SLEET/FZ RAIN
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR BTWN 12-15Z...THEN CHC POPS MAINLY
NORTH OF A WAL-FYJ-PTB-AVC LINE BTWN 15-18Z. ONLY SLGHT CHC POPS
SE OF THERE WHERE PCPN SHOULD BE RAIN.

DATA THEN SUPPORTS TMPS WARMING UP ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN AFTER 18Z ACROSS THE FA. TRICKY PART WILL BE ACROSS FAR NWRN
COUNTIES (LOUISA/FLUVANNA) WHERE HISTORICALLY THE WEDGE IS HARDER TO
BREAK. HIGHS OCCUR LATE AND RANGE FROM THE M30S WRN MOST COUNTIES TO
THE L-M40S SERN AREAS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY THIRD
PERIOD ADVISORY GIVEN RATHER LOW QPF AND MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL
MENTION A PSBL MORNING MIX ACROSS NRN HALF OF FA IN THE HWO.

CHC TO LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN IN LIQUID FORM AS TMPS HOLD
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE TO THE M-U30S.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND MON...WITH THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACRS THE FA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. KEPT CHC POPS
WITH THE FROPA ATTM. HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT EXITS MONDAY AFTN WILL
DETERMINE ANY CLRG TAKING PLACE W-E. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE M40S
ERN SHORE AREAS...U40S-L50S WEST OF THE CHES BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
ZONAL...SO ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID/UPPER 20S N...TO LOW 30S S. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
BEST FORCING FOR PCPN WILL TRACK N OF THE REGION...SO THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS NRN PORTIONS...WITH A LESSER CHC TO THE S.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE CLOUDY AND COOL WITH MOST OF THE AREA WITHIN A
RESIDUAL CAD-WEDGE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 40 NW...TO NEAR
50 SE. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOULD LOWS ONLY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES
TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT. 27/00Z AND 12Z RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY QUICKER WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HENCE HAS MORE CLOUD COVER/HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
-RA. THE 27/12Z CMC IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...HIGHS
HAVE BEEN TRENDED UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...WHICH REFLECTS A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND. GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY THURSDAY...WITH ANAFRONTAL PCPN IN
ITS WAKE. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS ONCE AGAIN ARCTIC IN
ORIGIN. THE QUESTION IN WHETHER OR NOT THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN
QUICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A CHANGEOVER TO -SN (PRIMARILY N/NW
PORTIONS). THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS CONSIDERED LOW CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME...SO NO MENTION OF -SN WILL BE INCLUDED. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN BY LATER NEXT WEEK WITH
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 20S THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA IS
MUCH DRIER THAN LAST NIGHT AND EVEN WITH WIDESPREAD SNOWCOVER...ONLY
EXPECTING SPOTTY SHALLOW GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP...IF ANY. A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND SPREADS MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WSW TODAY.

MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY MORNING IN THE PRESENCE
OF A RETREATING COLD AIRMASS. THIS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LIGHT
-FZRA/-PL AT KRIC...KSBY...AND POTENTIALLY KPHF FROM ROUGHLY 12Z-18Z.
LIGHT RAIN LINGERS ALL TAF SITES AFTER 18Z. DRY WX RETURNS BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
MINIMAL CAA SURGE ONGOING ACROSS THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. N-NE WINDS MAINLY
15-20 KT. WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR THE BAY THRU 15Z. NE WINDS WILL
FAVOR SEAS REMAINING AOA 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THUS WILL KEEP SCA GOING TIL 4 PM
SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP SCA BY 6
AM. SEAS ARE PRESENTLY 6 FT OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS AND THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO 7-8FT (6-7FT NEARSHORE) IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AND
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
LATE TUESDAY ALLOWING THE WIND TO BECOME SSW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 26TH:

RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.2 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.8 F (-9.7 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 4TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 26TH:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (TODAY):

            2/28
          _______
RIC       28/1934
ORF       30/1934
SBY       29/1934
ECG       33/1934

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
CLIMATE...AKQ