-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 080311
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1011 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON
SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE LOCAL
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS 997 MB SFC LOW ABOUT 100 NM ENE OF CAPE
HATTERAS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. STRONG
WINDS CONTINUE ACRS THE VA ERN SHORE/HAMPTON ROADS AND NE NC BUT
HAVE TRENDED DOWN OVER THE PAST HR (AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS). WITH ONLY A FEW GUSTS TO ~40 MPH (GENLY
30-35 MPH MORE COMMON) POSSIBLE HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WIND
ADVISORY.

JUST SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN NOW SEEN ON THE RADAR OVER FAR SE VA/NE NC
AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS MUCH
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW (SKIES ALREADY ARE CLEARING OUT
OVER SOME AREAS WEST OF I-95). SOME LOW CLOUDINESS WILL TEND TO
HANG AROUND INTO THE EARLY AM HRS E OF I-95 EVEN AFTER ALL PRECIP
ENDS. FARTHER INLAND...SKIES OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR. SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING OVERNIGHT TO INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT
FOG FORMATION SO KEPT THIS OUT OF THE GRIDDED FORECAST ALTHOUGH
SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP LATER ON ALONG/WEST OF I-95. MADE
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS...25-30 F ALONG AND WEST
OF I-95 AND GENLY 30-35 F FARTHER EAST.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
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FOLLOWED A SREF/GFS SOLN TDY...NAM THE OUTLIER IN DEVELOPING A LOW ALONG
A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES THE AREA SAT NIGHT. H5 RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN STATES SAT. H85 TMPS RISE TO ARND 5C. THIS WILL COMBINE
WITH A SW WND FLOW AND MSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO PRODUCE HIGH TMPS IN THE
THE U50S-L60S WEST OF THE CHES BAY...L-M50S ALONG THE COAST. SOME
CLOUDS BY LATE AFTRN ACROSS NRN HALF OF FA AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL
BNDRY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH IN BACKDOOR FASHION LATE SAT NGT THRU
SUN MRNG. MODELS SHOW ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO
CONFINED LOW CHC POPS (SHWRS) ACROSS NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES. LOWS
35-40. HIGH PRS TO THE NORTH BUILDS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY PROVIDING
M SUNNY SKIES. COOLER AS WIND TURN INTO THE NORTH AND H85 TMPS DROP
TO ARND ZERO. HIGHS IN THE M40S-L50S COASTAL AREAS...55-60 WEST OF
CHES BAY.

FAIR SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE 30S. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY WITH RISING H85 TMPS. HIGHS MON IN
THE L-M60S COASTAL AREAS...65-70 WEST OF CHES BAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STAYING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE TWO MODELS STILL DIFFER A BIT ON THE LOCATION...MOVEMENT
AND TIMING OF LO PRES ACRS THE AREA WED INTO THU MORNG. DRY WX
WITH ABV NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TUE...AS SW FLO SHOULD HELP TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. LO PRES WILL THEN
RESULT IN A CHC FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE TUE NGT INTO THU MORNG. DRY
WX RETURNS FOR THU AFTN THRU FRI. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S TUE MORNG...IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WED MORNG...IN
THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S THU MORNG...AND IN THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30
FRI MORNG. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S
WED...AND IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S THU AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VA/NC COAST HAS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN IT AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES.
THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH. IN THE MEANTIME...GUSTY N/NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS.

PCPN HAS DIMINISHED IN VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES. MOS FORECASTS HAVE
SOME DETERIORATION IN CEILINGS EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE IMPROVING
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND WENT WITH THIS IDEA FOR THE TAFS.
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NRN PORTIONS
EARLY SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
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HAVE REPLACED GALE WARNINGS WITH SCA`S FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT FOR
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND COASTAL ZONES SOUTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND
(WHERE GALES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 1 AM).

PREV DISCUSSION...
INTENSIFYING LO PRES JUST OFF THE NC CST LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY
EVENING...WILL TRACK NE AND OUT TO SEA TNGT. GALE HEADLINES WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNGT FOR MUCH OF THE WTRS (AND STRONG
GALES AT THAT ACRS SE VA/NC COASTAL WATERS)...WITH SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OTHERWISE INTO SAT MORNG. SEAS WILL REMAIN
HIGH...AVERAGING 10 TO 15 FT THIS EVENG/TNGT...THEN SUBSIDE
QUICKLY SAT. N WINDS 25 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40-45 KT
THIS EVENG/TNGT WILL DIMINISH LATE TNGT AND SAT AND BECOME NW...AS
THE LO MOVES AWAY TO THE NE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AND WINDS BECOME
LIGHTER AND FM THE W DURING SAT. A PERIOD OF BENIGN WX AND WINDS
AOB 15 KT WILL OCCUR SUN THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT LO PRES
SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS ON WED AFTN INTO THU
MORNG.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HAVE RAISED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR NORFOLK/VA BEACH/CURRITUCK
NC FOR THE UPCOMING HIGH TIDE EARLY SAT MORNING (GENLY OCCURRING
FROM SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH 3 AM). DEPARTURES ARE AVERAGING
2-2.5 FT IN THESE AREAS AND SHOULD JUST TOP MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS
BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH AND TURN MORE OFFSHORE. ANOMALIES REMAIN
FAIRLY HIGH IN THE JAMES RIVER AND UP INTO NORTHAMPTON COUNTY ON
THE VA SHORE AS WELL BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

ALSO RAISED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR VA BEACH AND NC PER LATEST
OBS AT DUCK WITH SEAS TO 13 FT JUST 2 MI OFFSHORE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ098.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ095-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ633-634-654-656-
     658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ