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383
FXUS61 KAKQ 010747
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
347 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front approaches from the west today, with mainly dry
weather through early afternoon, followed by increasing storm
chances from west to east late in the day into tonight. The
front will be very slow to cross the local area through Wednesday,
with numerous showers and thunderstorms continuing. Mainly dry
conditions are expected late in the week into next weekend as
high pressure brings somewhat lower humidity to the region.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...

- Slower timing of an approaching cold front will lead to a hot
  and humid day with limited rain chances until late afternoon
  or evening except across the NW.

- Best SVR threat (Slight Risk) will be across the far northern
  tier where better shear resides, and where storms arrive
  earlier.

- Locally heavy rain is possible tonight, mainly for the NW 1/2
  of the FA where a Slight ERO risk is in effect.


The latest WX analysis indicates an upper level ridges well off
the SE US coast, with an approaching upper trough from the
western Great Lakes to the lower OH Valley where there is a lot
of ongoing convection early this morning. There is also an area
with scattered activity across the central and southern
Appalachians. Locally, dry conditions prevail with mainly just
high clouds in place and a very warm/humid start to July. There
is enough of a pressure gradient in place in between high
pressure well offshore, and low pressure approaching from the W,
to keep mixing SW winds to the sfc. Near the coast, SW winds are
gusting to around 20 mph, with 5-10 mph on average well inland.
Temperatures are mostly in the mid to upper 70s, with a few
places around 80F.

For today, the cold front will be slow to approach from the
W/NW, and have generally slowed the timing of the arrival of
showers and tstms compared to the previous forecast cycle. Most
of the CAMs, as well as the GFS and ECMWF really do not bring
much of a chc for showers and storms to the SE 1/2 of the area
until tonight. The 01/00Z NSSL is the most aggressive at
developing a pre-frontal band of storms across central VA as
early as 17-18Z, but this is probably overdone. For PoPs, have
mainly leaned to the NBM, blending in some of the CAMS to show a
little more detail in coverage and timing. The models are in
pretty good agreement that far SE VA and NE NC have a very low
chc until tonight. Model PW values in excess of 2.0" are
expected across the piedmont as the front approaches this aftn,
with ~1.75" to the SE. A somewhat stronger flow, with 850-500mb
winds of 25-30kt arrives later this aftn and evening associated
with the upper trough across the northern tier of the area where
improved storm organization and a slight risk=k for SVR is in
place. Most of the remainder of the area is in a marginal
severe risk (with just general thunder along the Albemarle
Sound). This is mainly due to weaker flow aloft the farther to
the SE, and also with little chc for any storms until after
sunset to the SE. Timing of the severe threat will generally be
during the late afternoon and evening hours. Additionally,
locally heavy rain is possible with the aforementioned moisture
rich airmass, and WPC has a Slight risk over NW portions of the
FA and a Marginal into SE VA. The heavy rain threat should
linger later into the evening compared to the severe threat.
Mid level lapse rates appear fairly weak, generally only
~5.5C/KM so the main threat will be damaging wind gusts with
hail generally unlikely. Highs today will range from the mid 90s
across the SE, and mostly in the lower 90s elsewhere. Peak heat
indices in the upper 90s W to near 105F SE (not expected to be
widespread enough for a Heat Advisory). Rain chances remain high
for the NW 1/2 of the area overnight, though the latest HREF
3"/3hr neighborhood probs drop off overnight with the loss of
daytime heating so the intensity of the rain is expected to
diminish somewhat after midnight and therefore confidence in a
Flood Watch for the NW is too low at this time.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 330 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- The front will be slow to push SE, likely stalling near VA/NC
  border, bringing increased rain chances to SE VA and NE NC
  Wednesday (Marginal ERO for Wed in SE zones).

01/00z guidance continues to trend slower with the front as it
pushes SE Tuesday night into Wednesday, keeping increased rain
chances to SE VA and NE NC through Wed aftn, although there will
likely be a late night/early morning diurnal weakening, before
coverage increases Wednesday afternoon. The primary hazard
Wednesday will be heavy rain as PW values remain at or above
2.0" ahead of the front. However, a few highly localized strong
wind gusts are possible given moisture laden updrafts in a high
PW airmass. High temperatures drop into the 80s Wednesday with
PoPs ranging from 15-30% N to 60-80% S with the front lingering
over the local area. 30/12z EPS/GEFS continue to show the front
pushing S of the region Wednesday night into Thursday, with PW
values dropping to 80-90% percent of normal Thursday. A
secondary cold front approaches from the N Thursday. However,
PoPs are generally < 15% given a drier airmass, with 15-20% near
the Albemarle Sound. High temperatures return to the lower 90s,
with heat indices in the mid/upper 90s as dewpoints drop into
the upper 60s to lower 70s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 340 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly dry through Independence Day and the following weekend.

- Lower dew points will bring some relief to the area.

The secondary cold front moves through the region Thursday
night. By Friday, surface high pressure builds over the eastern
Great Lakes and moves SE into the local area. Dewpoints are
forecast to only be in the low-mid 60s into central VA to the
upper 60s SE. Highs Friday are in the mid 80s to near 90F behind
the secondary front, with lows Friday night dropping into the
60s for most of the area, so some relative relief (at least for
early July standards) is expected. Upper ridging will start to
build across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic by next weekend.
Highs trend back toward the 90s, but dewpoints will be slower to
recover and mainly dry conditions are expected for the
Independence Day holiday weekend. More humid conditions along
with low chances of diurnal showers/tstms arrive early next week
well in advance of another cold front moving into the Great
Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 200 AM EDT Tuesday...

Cannot completely rule out an isolated shower this evening near
RIC or SBY, however, confidence is too low to reflect in the
tafs. Otherwise, any isolated showers/storms this evening taper
off overnight with mainly SCT mid level clouds continuing
overnight. A cold front gradually approaches on Tue with a
prefrontal trough across the area. This will allow for scattered
storms to develop Tue afternoon into Tue night. Recent trends
have been for slower timing of storms across the region. As
such, confidence in storms before 22-23z was too low at
PHF/ORF/ECG to reflect in the tafs at this time. However,
confidence is highest at RIC and SBY, particularly from 20z
through 00z. As such, have added PROB30s for RIC/SBY to account
for this. Storm chances increase to 70-90% from W to E from 21z
Tue through Tue night. Storms may produce strong to severe
winds Tue afternoon into Tue night. CIGs remain mainly VFR with
CU developing Tue afternoon (~5000 ft CIGs). MVFR or IFR VIS
with MVFR CIGs are possible with convection, particularly Tue
night. Additionally, CIGs lower to MVFR at RIC/SBY by 3-4z Wed
with MVFR/IFR CIGs spreading across the area Tue night.
Otherwise, winds remain SSW/SW ~10 kt tonight, becoming SW 10-15
kt with gusts up to 25 kt Tue.

The cold front will be slow to cross the region Wednesday
with scattered showers/storms likely (particularly across SE
VA/NE NC). These showers/storms will be capable of producing
brief flight restrictions (mainly due to VIS) in heavy rain
along with strong winds. VFR conditions return Thursday through
Saturday as drier air builds into the region behind the cold
front.
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&&

.MARINE...
As of 200 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories into effect this morning through early
Wednesday for most of the local waters.

- Benign marine conditions return Wednesday afternoon through the
extended period.

SW flow continues this morning with high pressure well to the SW
offshore and a cold front approaching from the W. Winds early this
morning are generally 10-15kt with gusts around 20kt, though middle
portions of the Ches Bay are 20 to 25kt. Small Craft Advisories are
in effect for coastal waters south of Parramore Island and the
Currituck Sound, The Ches. Bay and lower James river. Winds will
likely have a brief decrease in the late morning/early afternoon
today as the marine layer becomes more stable, but will increase
once again this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm associated with
the front as expected to bring heavy rain and potentially damaging
wind gusts. SCAs will be issued as need. Approx. time frame is
between late this evening through tomorrow morning. SCA for the
northern coastal waters will go into effect 11 AM this morning as
winds and seas increase late morning. Waves will peak in the bay
early morning this at 2-3 ft with an occasional 4 ft wave. Late
afternoon/evening, seas will peak at 3-5 ft. Winds and seas remain
elevated through early Wednesday morning before starting to taper
off. Looking at the extended forecast, benign marine conditions will
resume by mid-week and are expected to continue through the holiday
weekend.

The rip current risk is moderate for all beaches today.

&&

.CLIMATE...
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June 2025 ranked in the Top 10 Warmest at all 4 Long term
Climate stations:

* Site: Avg Temp (Rank)

- RIC: 78.1 (5th warmest)
- ORF: 78.8 (7th warmest)
- SBY: 75.6 (9th warmest)
- ECG: 78.6 (10th warmest)
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&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630>632-
     634-638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ633-654-
     656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 3 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ650-652.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ/LKB
AVIATION...LKB/RMM
MARINE...AC/KMC
CLIMATE...