Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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551 FXUS61 KAKQ 240729 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 329 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure prevails over the region through Tuesday. A weak cold front drops into the region Tuesday night into Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Ltst MSAS showing high pres across the region with a trof extending along a PHL-ROA-AVL line. The high pres continues the mid summer heatwave. Challenge of the day will be temps/dp temps and resultant heat index values as the trof meanders east of the mts. H85 tmps remain in the 20-22C range (+2 std dev). Given plenty of sunshine, sfc tmps should easily reach the mid-upr 90s across the fa except upr 80s-lwr 90s at the beaches. Airmass is mostly capped once again, keeping the threat of any convection low. Models do hint at the potential for an isltd tstm to develop along a sea breeze bndry across the ern shore / wrn fringes of the Ches bay this aftrn, but capped pops at 14% as confidence is low that this will occur. Location of sfc trof this aftrn will be critical as to where dew pt temps can mix out to arnd 70. East of there expect dew pt tmps to remain in the low to mid 70s, resulting in heat index values aoa 105. Latest data suggests only then nwrn counties along with the ern shore areas (due to sea breezes) stay aob 104. Thus, have elected to expand heat advsry frthr West and North a bit. Will have 2 segments, the additional counties for heat index values around 105 with the original advsry btwn 105-110.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Warm and humid tonight with lows in the mid to upr 70s. Hottest day of this stretch appears to be on Mon with highs in the mid-upr 90s again, except upr 80s-lwr 90s at the beaches. Not out of the qstn to see an AWOS record 100. Dew pt temps progged to be in the low- mid 70s fa wide. This would agrue for most if not the entire fa in a heat advsry. Only chc for isltd tstms is over the nwrn zones, all depending on how far east any tstm off the mts can move. The upper ridge begins to slowly break down Mon night into Tues as a frontal boundary slowly approaches from the west. Remaining warm and humid Mon night with evening convection limited to the northern most zones. Lows in the low-mid 70s. Continued hot Tuesday with highs in the mid 90s. Dew pts remain in the low-mid 70s resulting in heat index values aoa 105 most areas (heat advsry range). There is a 20-40% chc of afternoon tstms west of the Ches Bay after 18Z.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Stacked high pressure over the Southeast Coast allows zonal/westerly flow aloft to settle across the region Tuesday night through the week. A series of wx disturbances will pass across the region and keep a chance for thunderstorms in the forecast each aftn/evening. Pwats around 2.00-2.25 inches and dewpoints in the low-mid 70s will result in muggy conditions with ample moisture present across the area...making strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall the anticipated impacts from thunderstorms. Combine the humidity with temperatures remaining in the low 90s, and heat indices will continue to run around 100-104 degrees with a few pockets in far SE VA/NE NC reaching 105-106 degrees for an hour or two each aftn. Lows generally in the low-mid 70s inland and mid-upper 70s beaches each night.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure of the Southeast coast will dominate the weather during much of the upcoming week. A weak cold front will graze northern portions of the area late Tuesday and Wednesday. VFR conditions will prevail during most of the 06Z TAF period. Included MVFR fog at SBY and RIC during the early morning hours today. Dew points are a bit higher than 24 hours ago but wind and low level temperatures may prevent fog development. Southwest winds generally less than 10 knots will prevail today. A windshift to the northeast could occur at ORF around midday but did not include in the TAF. The chances for convection are quite low. OUTLOOK...Another mainly dry day is expected Monday. A cold front drops into the area Tuesday/Wednesday bringing isolated- scattered showers/tstms both days...primarily during the afternoon/evening hours. Brief reductions in VSBYS and CIGS to MVFR/IFR levels are possible with the storms. && .MARINE... Generally quiet/benign conditions expected into early next week. Winds generally s-sw aob 15kt tonight through Monday. Zonal/westerly flow aloft settles across the region Tuesday through the rest of the week. A series of weather disturbances will pass across the region and keep a chance for thunderstorms in the forecast each aftn/evening. There may be a surge in sw winds to 15kt Bay/Sound and 15-20kt Monday night ahead of the approaching weather, however SCA flags are not anticipated at the moment. Seas average 2-3ft and may surge to 3-4ft Monday night. Waves average 1-2ft and may surge to 2-3ft Monday night. && .CLIMATE...
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While its certainly going to be hot today thru Mon, climatologically this is the hottest time of the year with several heat waves having occurred in the past that have been far more intense than what we will experience. Record highs are unlikely to be set Sun/Mon, and in most cases, don`t expect that they will even challenged within 5 deg F. * RECORD HIGHS: Records Sun (7/24) Mon (7/25) * RIC: 105 (2010) 105 (2010) * ORF: 105 (2010) 105 (2010) * SBY: 101 (2010) 100 (2010) * ECG: 97 (2012) 99 (1949)
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012>017-030>032. VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ065>068-077>090-092-093-095>098-513>516-518-520- 523>525. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...MAS MARINE...MAS CLIMATE...AKQ

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