-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 101851
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
151 PM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT THEN SWEEPS
THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS FAILED TO LINK WITH LOW-LEVEL COOLING THIS
MORNING. HENCE...RAIN PREVAILED ASIDE FROM A MIX OF LIGHT RA/SN
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS AS THE PRECIPITATION CAME TO AN END.
THUS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS A BUST. RAIN WILL CONTINUE
FOR A FEW HOURS OVER SE VA AND NE NC WITH MINIMAL ADDITIONAL QPF.
OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR IS QUICKLY ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
N/NW...TO THE LOW 40S SE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BLO NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDG IN FRM THE WEST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO MSTLY CLR/SNY SKIES AND LGT WINDS ON AVG. ENTIRE
PERIOD WILL HAVE DRY CONDITIONS.

LOWS TNGT/WED NGT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPR TEENS TO LO 20S
NW...TO THE LO 30S NEAR THE CST. HIGHS WED/THU WILL ONLY BE IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL. DRY WX
WILL PREVAIL ACRS THE REGION FM THU NGT THRU FRI EVENG...AS HI PRES
BLDS OVR THE REGION THEN OFF THE CST. LO PRES WILL THEN TRACK FM THE
LWR MS VLY LATE FRI NGT...NE TO THE SRN NEW ENGLAND CST BY SUN MORNG.
THIS LO AND AN ASSOC COLD FRONT WILL BRING GOOD CHCS FOR RAIN SAT
INTO EARLY SUN MORNG. THE PCPN WILL END OVR SE CNTIES SUN MORNG...AS
THE FRONT PUSHES OUT TO SEA SUN AFTN. THE PCPN COULD END AS A FEW
SNOWFLAKES ACRS THE NW CNTIES LATE SAT NGT INTO EARLY SUN MORNG. HI
PRES WILL RETURN FOR LATER SUN THRU MON. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE
UPR TEENS TO MID 20S FRI MORNG...IN THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S SAT
MORNG...IN THE LWR 30S TO LWR 40S SUN MORNG...AND IN THE 20S TO LWR
30S MON MORNG. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LWR TO MID 40S FRI...RANGE
FM THE MID 40S TO UPR 50S SAT...RANGE FM THE LWR 40S TO LWR 50S
SUN...AND RANGE FM THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S MON.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GIVEN THE MOIST AIRMASS OVERHEAD...MOST AREAS CONTINUE TO HAVE IFR
CIGS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG. THIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS MORE
RAIN OVERSPREADS THE REGION THRU 16Z. THIS COMBINED WITH COLDER
AIR FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL RESULT IN THE RAIN MIXING
WITH OR CHANGING TO WET SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE ENDING AROUND
18Z IN RIC. THE CHANGEOVER WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT SBY AROUND 15Z
WITH SOME ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE. A
POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX AT PHF JUST BEFORE ENDING... BUT CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INDICATE THAT WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE. ALL RAIN
AT ORF/ECG.

SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS OFF THE COAST BY 00Z WITH TSCTNS SHOWING RAPID
CLEARING FROM W-E. A STRETCH OF DRY AND VFR WX CONDITIONS STARTS
TUES NIGHT WHICH EXTENDS AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC
FOR PCPN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT A MARGINAL (15-20 KT) CAA
SURGE DEVELOPS BEHIND LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. TIMING TRICKY...BUT WILL HAVE
SCA HEADLINES UP AS THE EVENT IN NOW WITHIN 12 HOURS. ADDED THE
CURRITUCK SOUND TO THE MIX. SOME GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AS WELL.

WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH BLO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING...BUT HELD ONTO
SCA HEADLINES FOR COASTAL WATERS MAINLY FOR SEAS OUT NR 20 NM. WINDS
BECOME W THEN SW (BELOW SCA LEVELS) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS WED NIGHT. MODELS DEPICTING ANTHR
DECENT CAA SURGE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SCA`S
EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR