Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 280831 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 326 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT... THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... 1040MB SFC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. TSCTNS SHOW ENOUGH MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SKIES TO AVG PT SUNNY. ANTHR DAY WITH HIGHS SOME 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS H85 TMPS ONLY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE L-M30S. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. CLOUDS QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PREVENT TMPS FROM REACHING THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BLO). DRY THROUGH 12Z SUN. LOWS MID TEENS TO L20S. LOW PRESSURE EJECTS NE FROM NATIONS MID SECTION SUN WITH ASSCTD WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. YET ANOTHER CHALLENGING FORECAST AS THE LATEST MODELS SHOW LIGHT PCPN BREAKING OUT ACROSS NWRN HALF OF FA SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD AIR DISLODGES MAKING FOR P-TYPE ISSUES. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS AOB FREEZING WILL MAKE FOR A WINTER MIX OF PCPN AT ONSET BEFORE TMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING CHANGING PCPN TO PLAIN RAIN. MODELS OFFER UP DIFFERENT SOLNS ON WHERE THESE P-TYPE ISSUES WILL BE BUT WILL LEAN TOWARD A SREF SOLN WHICH SEEMS TO BE A COMPROMISE ATTM. GRIDS WILL SHOW LOW CHC POPS FOR A MIXTURE OF SNOW/SLEET/FZ RAIN ACROSS AREAS WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR BTWN 12-15Z...THEN CHC POPS MAINLY NORTH OF A WAL-FYJ-PTB-AVC LINE BTWN 15-18Z. ONLY SLGHT CHC POPS SE OF THERE WHERE PCPN SHOULD BE RAIN. DATA THEN SUPPORTS TMPS WARMING UP ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AFTER 18Z ACROSS THE FA. TRICKY PART WILL BE ACROSS FAR NWRN COUNTIES (LOUISA/FLUVANNA) WHERE HISTORICALLY THE WEDGE IS HARDER TO BREAK. HIGHS OCCUR LATE AND RANGE FROM THE M30S WRN MOST COUNTIES TO THE L-M40S SERN AREAS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY THIRD PERIOD ADVISORY GIVEN RATHER LOW QPF AND MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL MENTION A PSBL MORNING MIX ACROSS NRN HALF OF FA IN THE HWO. CHC TO LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN IN LIQUID FORM AS TMPS HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE TO THE M-U30S. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND MON...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING ACRS THE FA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. KEPT CHC POPS WITH THE FROPA ATTM. HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT EXITS MONDAY AFTN WILL DETERMINE ANY CLRG TAKING PLACE W-E. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE M40S ERN SHORE AREAS...U40S-L50S WEST OF THE CHES BAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS ZONAL...SO ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S N...TO LOW 30S S. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST FORCING FOR PCPN WILL TRACK N OF THE REGION...SO THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS NRN PORTIONS...WITH A LESSER CHC TO THE S. TUESDAY SHOULD BE CLOUDY AND COOL WITH MOST OF THE AREA WITHIN A RESIDUAL CAD-WEDGE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 40 NW...TO NEAR 50 SE. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOULD LOWS ONLY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT. 27/00Z AND 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY QUICKER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HENCE HAS MORE CLOUD COVER/HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR -RA. THE 27/12Z CMC IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...HIGHS HAVE BEEN TRENDED UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COASTS...WHICH REFLECTS A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND. GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY THURSDAY...WITH ANAFRONTAL PCPN IN ITS WAKE. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS ONCE AGAIN ARCTIC IN ORIGIN. THE QUESTION IN WHETHER OR NOT THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN QUICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A CHANGEOVER TO -SN (PRIMARILY N/NW PORTIONS). THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS CONSIDERED LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME...SO NO MENTION OF -SN WILL BE INCLUDED. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN BY LATER NEXT WEEK WITH CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 20S THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA IS MUCH DRIER THAN LAST NIGHT AND EVEN WITH WIDESPREAD SNOWCOVER...ONLY EXPECTING SPOTTY SHALLOW GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP...IF ANY. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND SPREADS MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WSW TODAY. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY MORNING IN THE PRESENCE OF A RETREATING COLD AIRMASS. THIS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LIGHT -FZRA/-PL AT KRIC...KSBY...AND POTENTIALLY KPHF FROM ROUGHLY 12Z-18Z. LIGHT RAIN LINGERS ALL TAF SITES AFTER 18Z. DRY WX RETURNS BY MONDAY. && .MARINE... MINIMAL CAA SURGE ONGOING ACROSS THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. N-NE WINDS MAINLY 15-20 KT. WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR THE BAY THRU 15Z. NE WINDS WILL FAVOR SEAS REMAINING AOA 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THUS WILL KEEP SCA GOING TIL 4 PM SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP SCA BY 6 AM. SEAS ARE PRESENTLY 6 FT OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO 7-8FT (6-7FT NEARSHORE) IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY ALLOWING THE WIND TO BECOME SSW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. && .CLIMATE... RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE VERY LIKELY. AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 26TH: RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.2 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979. NORFOLK: 32.8 F (-9.7 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978. SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 26TH: * RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB. * NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING): 3/1 ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH _______ __________________________________________ RIC11/1937 10 MARCH 4 2009 ORF18/1980 14 MARCH 14 1888 SBY 13/1980 1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911 ECG 16/1937 16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943 RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (TODAY): 2/28 _______ RIC 28/1934 ORF 30/1934 SBY 29/1934 ECG 33/1934 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-652-654. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ656- 658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...JDM MARINE...JDM CLIMATE...AKQ

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