Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 241756 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 156 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will move northeast off the New England coast during today, while high pressure builds in from the west. High pressure will move right over the area tonight...then slides off the coast for Wednesday afternoon into Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Sfc low pressure currently sits off the New England coast. That low will continue to lift slowly NE and away from the local area today. One last piece of energy/associated lift rotating SE on the back side of the departing low will provide a slight chance for showers this afternoon (during peak heating). Otherwise, expect sunshine to mix with some clouds...and warmer temps across the area. Highs will be in the upr 70s to low 80s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Broad upper level ridging builds northeast from the Deep South into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast region Tonight into Wednesday, before sliding overhead into Thursday. 850mb temperatures rise to ~15C by Wednesday afternoon...and 16-17c by Thursday afternoon. BL mixing will reach to around 850mb, and should result in highs reaching the mid/upper 80s inland, with low/mid 80s closer to the coast, and upper 70s for the immediate Atlantic coast of the Ern Shore. After morning lows in the 50s to near 60, high temperatures creep up about a category area wide into the upper 80s/around 90 inland (low to mid 80s coastal sections) on Thursday. Forecast soundings/model cross-sections indicate rather dry conditions aloft,owing mainly to subsidence and light downslope flow aloft. Will therefore keep pops in silent range <10% on Wed, with only slight chc for more seasonally typical diurnally-driven pulse convection on Thursday afternoon and early evening. Light downslope flow will likely keep areal coverage of any convection on the low side, and will also serve to mix dewpoints down into the mid/upper 50s in the mid to late afternoon hours both Wed/Thu. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Bermuda sfc high pressure resides over the wrn Atlantic Ocean through the long term periods as mid-upper level ridging moves over the ne CONUS during this time. Although the GFS is trying to develop low pressure over the Caribbean/Bahamas during Thu night/Fri and then tracking it into the Carolinas Sat-Mon, the ECMWF is keeping this system suppressed farther south due to mid-upper ridging well-rooted across the ne CONUS through at least Sun night before beginning to impact the Mid Atlantic Region. WPC forecast is also very similar to the ECMWF and am starting to lean more twd this warmer and drier solution... especially since GFS ensembles support the GFS as more of an outlier at this point. Will trend the long range forecast in this direction regarding precip and temperatures. High temps continue to run above normal throughout the extended forecast periods and are now closer to being around 10 degrees above normal Fri (highs in the upper 80s inland...upper 70s to mid 80s immediate coast). For Sat-Mon, temps are around 5-7 degrees above normal (highs in the mid 80s Sat/Sun and lower 80s Mon). Low temps also still trending around 5-10 degrees above normal Thu-Sun nights (lows generally in the mid 60s). && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Sfc low pressure situated from the New England coast sw to NJ, Drier air and VFR conditions prevail acrs the local area with a W flow, although sct/bkn CU are now pushing SE from the mtns and look to overspread area terminals shortly. Still VFR in any cigs that prevail for a few hrs and while an isolated shower or tstm can`t be ruled out through around 00Z this evening, the probability is too low to include in any TAF. A much more summer like pattern is expected for the rest of the week. VFR conditions expected mostly, however one could not rule out some patchy fog late at night/through sunrise especially with all of the moisture from recent rains. Not much in the way of rain chances, but isolated late aftn/evening tstms will be possible Thu and Fri. A somewhat more unsettled pattern potentially returns by Sat night/Sunday.
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&& .MARINE... Lo pres well e of DE/srn NJ early this mrng tracks sloly ne and away fm the mdatlc rgn tda. Conds blo SCA for the wtrs tda. WNW wnds aob 15 kt become SW lt. Hi pres sfc-aloft builds acrs the wtrs tngt- Wed...then rmns nr the mdatlc wtrs through Fri/Sat...providing mnly SSW wnds blo 15 kt. Will cont to monitor psbl lo pres development off SE conus cst lt wk into the wknd...which may bring incrsd SE wnds and deteriorating conds ovr the local wtrs. && .CLIMATE... The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41". May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at Richmond. Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond 1. 9.13" 1889 2. 8.98" 1873 3. 8.87" 1972 4. 8.67" 1886 5. 8.59" 2003 6. 8.41" 2016 (to date) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...JDM/TMG SHORT TERM...MAM/TMG LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...LKB MARINE...ALB CLIMATE...AKQ

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