Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 272342 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 642 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND ENHANCE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY BUT LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTING OFF THE COAST REMAINS IN CONTROL AND LOOKS TO HOLD PRECIPITATION OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THERE REMAINS A LOT OF CLOUD COVER WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THIS CLOUD COVER WILL START TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST OVERNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG SPEED MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINING OFF THE SE COAST. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT IN THE UPPER SW FLOW. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECT MILDER OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE LOW- MID 40S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... WHILE MODELS AGREE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN THE TIMING OF THE PERTURBATIONS IN THE SW FLOW BUT THE HANDING OF THE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE DIFFERS JUST ENOUGH TO MAKE EXACT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION TRICKY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA SUN AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE ALONG THE FRONT AND OVER THE REGION. A SERIES OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS AND INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL PROVIDE LIFT AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE IN THE SWLY FLOW THE RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD PRECIP SPREADING SW TO NE ACROSS THE REGION THRU THE DAY SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL VA. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST, BUT POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE RAISED TO CATEGORICAL ONCE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE BEST PRECIP IS KNOWN. HIGHS SUN IN THE MID- UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOW 60S SE WHERE CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE LOWER. THIS INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIP LIFTS THRU THE AREA SUN AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR A BREAK IN THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST...EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE SE COASTAL PLAINS AS SWLY FLOW AND DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES. THE LULL IN PRECIP SUN EVENING WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DEAMPLIFIES AND LIFTS INTO THE REGION LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A STRONGER SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT...LIFTING INTO NC EARLY MON MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THIS ROUND OF PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST VA AS WELL AS NE NC. MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT NOW LINGERING SOME MOISTURE OVER THE AREA INTO MON EVENING. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS THRU MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS MON RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE N TO NEAR 50 IN THE SOUTH. UPPER JET AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUES...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL UVM. REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP MON NIGHT INTO TUES MORNING. TEMP PROFILES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THRU TUES MORNING...AS THE BEST CAA ARRIVES AS PRECIP PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE MON NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THRU TUES MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH HIGH TUESDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRIDAY WITH REGARD TO OVERALL PATTERN. A COLD ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA. WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER. LOW TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 24 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE /A BIT WARMER NEAR THE COAST/. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S NW TO THE LOWER/MID 30S SE...WITH MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEFORE 06Z...AS CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE 40S...AND IN THE 40S ALL AREAS FRIDAY... EXCEPT SE VA/NE NC...WHERE 50S LOOK LIKELY. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIVERGE FROM NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM. GFS REMAINS 12-18 HOURS FASTER THAN ECMWF...WHICH DEVELOPS WAVE ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...DELAYING FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL SUNDAY. REGARDLESS...FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE UNSETTLED...WITH CLOUDS AND SHWERS. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY...WITH MANY AREAS POTENTIALLY IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SCT HIGH CLOUDS PREVAILED OVER THE AREA STATES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PCPN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST AND SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY. THE 12Z NAM HAS TRENDED DRIER THROUGH 18Z AND HELD OFF ON PUTTING PCPN THROUGH THEN. NO FOG ISSUES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES BEING HELD UP BY CLOUD COVER AND WAA. OUTLOOK...RAIN DEVELOPS FROM THE N/W SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING WITH PERIODS OF IFR INDICATED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. A TEMPORARY DRYING SHOULD OCCUR LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND PSBL IFR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .MARINE... FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE MARINE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ALONG/JUST OFF THE VA/NC COAST. SOME INCREASE IN WINDS LIKELY TONIGHT/EARLY SUN...WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA LATE SUNDAY...AND CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. WINDS GRADUALLY DROP OFF AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE N/NE ON MONDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO LINE WITH EARLIER FORECAST REASONING...AND ARE NOW INDICATING A STRONGER SURGE...WITH WIND SPEEDS NEAR SCA CRITERIA POSSIBLE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT THAT SEAS WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD TO 5 FT OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS LATE MON-TUE IN N/NE FLOW OF 15-20 KT. MAY NEED SOME SCA HEADLINES DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK...WITH WINDS/SEAS DIMINISHING. && .EQUIPMENT... KDOX 88D RADAR IS EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF SERVICE THROUGH AT LEAST WED 12/31. SEE FTMDOX (FREE TEXT MESSAGE) FOR DETAILS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JEF/JAO NEAR TERM...JAO SHORT TERM...JAO LONG TERM...WRS AVIATION...LSA MARINE...LKB/WRS EQUIPMENT...

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