Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 161800
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
200 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure slides off the coast tonight. A cold front
will drop through the region Sunday night bringing in cooler air
for the start of next week. A stronger cold front will cross
the area late Monday into Tuesday morning.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 120 PM EDT Saturday...
Early this afternoon, weak sfc high pressure is over the area
with zonal flow aloft over much of the ern CONUS. Strong low
pressure at the sfc and aloft continues to track E over Ontario.
The surface high will quickly shift offshore this evening
(allowing winds to turn back to the SW/SE/S). Temps will only
drop into the upper 40s-lower 50s tonight with a 5-15 mph SSW
wind. A weak shortwave will also cross the area late tonight,
which will result in an increase in clouds. In addition, a few
showers cannot be ruled out near the coast between 2-8 AM (and
have added slight chc PoPs to the forecast to account for this).
Very little (if any) appreciable rainfall is expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM EDT Saturday...
Mostly clear to partly cloudy tonight with lows in the upper 40s
to lower 50s. Strong low pressure at the sfc and aloft tracks E
from Ontario to the Canadian Maritimes Sun through Mon, sending
a second, stronger cold front across into the area Sun night
into early Mon morning. Cloud cover will increase throughout the
day ahead of the mainly dry front. However, there may be a few
light showers along or just off the SE coast Sun evening into
early Mon morning, as a weak shortwave also moves offshore to
our south. Highs on Sun in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Cooler air
will begin to filter in behind the boundary, so low temps Sun
night will range from the upper 30s to lower 40s N and W, to the
mid to upper 40s SE VA and NE NC. Partly sunny, breezy/cooler
on Mon with widespread 20-25 mph wind gusts. Highs will range
through the 50s to near 60. There could be isolated showers
along the extrm SE VA/NE NC coast Mon night, as shortwave energy
moves across ern NC and offshore. Otherwise, mostly clear to
mostly cloudy with lows mainly in the upper 20s to mid 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 355 AM EDT Saturday...
Tue looks to be the coolest day of the period with continued
breezy WNW winds and highs in the 50-55F range. Temps moderate
into the mid 50s to mid 60s (with continued dry wx) for Wed/Thu,
as the flow aloft becomes more zonal. Still breezy out of the
WNW on Wed. Then, rain chances increase as we head into Fri/
Fri night, as a deepening low pressure system lifts toward the
area from the south. While things can change (and likely will
as it is near a week away), this looks like more of a stratiform
rain event, as opposed to showers/tstms. Ensemble (GEFS/EPS)
mean precipitation amounts are 0.50-1.00" across the FA at this
time.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 120 PM EDT Saturday...
VFR through the first part of tonight with light/variable winds
becoming SSW. A shortwave crosses the area late tonight, which
may bring a few showers to SBY/PHF/ORF/ECG between 06-12z (PoPs
are 20% so have not mentioned this in the TAFs). However, a
brief period of MVFR CIGs is possible at ORF/ECG early Sun
morning in association with this feature. Skies clear out on Sun
with winds shifting to the W-WSW and increasing to 10-15 kt (w/
gusts to 20 kt).
Outlook: Isolated to widely scattered showers will be possible
over SE terminals (ORF/ECG) with a second, stronger cold front
crossing the region Sun night (which may result in brief flight
restrictions). Otherwise, mainly VFR through the middle of next
week.
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 200 PM EDT Saturday...
Yesterday`s cold front pushed offshore earlier this morning,
allowing weak high pressure to build in behind it. Latest obs
indicate the development of a seabreeze with wind speeds at 5-10kt.
Seas are 2-3ft and waves are around 1ft (2ft in the mouth of the
bay). High pressure will slide offshore to the SE this evening as
another (dry) cold front approaches the region. Behind the high,
winds become SE at 10-15kt, then increasing to 15-18kt (highest in
northern waters) as they turn to the SW late tonight. Breezier
Sunday, but still sub-SCA with westerly winds at ~10kt with gusts to
15kt.
W-SW winds turn N-NW, increasing late Sunday night/Monday morning in
tightening pressure gradient ahead of the next frontal passage. Once
again, this surge is forecast to brief enough to hold off with any
headlines despite a few gusts to ~20kt (reasonable to think a brief
Marine Statement may be needed during this period). However, SCA
headlines are likely to be needed as early as Monday evening, but
especially late Monday night/ early Tuesday. A strong cold front
crosses the region during this period, with strong cold air
advection expected. EPS/GEFS both show 850mb temperatures dropping
to as low as -8C to -10C by 12Z Tuesday. Wind probs are low for
prolonged gale force gusts (single digit probs), but solid SCAs
appear likely during this timeframe. Winds slowly diminish Tuesday
with SCA potentially coming down Tuesday afternoon. Winds back to to
W-SW winds late Tue into Wed, with potential for a brief period
of SCA conditions Tue night in the lower bay and lower James
River.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...ERI/TMG
LONG TERM...ERI/TMG
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...AM/MAM