Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 200228 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1028 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front stalls over Southeast Virginia and Northeast North Carolina overnight and will remain nearly stationary through Wednesday. The boundary dissipates late in the week allowing the Bermuda high to build back in. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Severe tstm watch has been cancelled, as severe threat rapidly diminishing and transitioning now to primarily a heavy rain threat. There will still be some potential for gusty winds to 30-40 mph in tstms across SE VA and NE NC overnight as this area has not been as worked over from precip earlier. Potential for localized flooding overnight with training storms in low MBE environment (SW low level jet nearly the same in speed and direction to 500-700 mb flow). The greatest concern will be across south central/SE VA (including VA ern shore) and NE NC. However, thus far this region has not had much in the way of QPF so the threat for widespread flooding does not appear likely. Will maintain 60-80% or higher PoPs through 06Z (and lingering longer for NE NC). Lowering PoPs for central VA and points NW. Otherwise...becoming partly cloudy NW and remaining mostly cloudy elsewhere. Lows 65 to 70 F for the W and NW to the low- mid 70s SE. Mention of heavy rain will continues in the HWO except across the NW where bulk of rain has ended.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Weak/residual frontal boundary lingers invof SE VA-NE NC Tue into Wed as trough aloft is slow to track through New England and strong high pres remains in the WSW Atlantic. By Wed night into Thu...flow aloft become a bit more NW and gradually shifts the moisture axis SE of the local area. Another surge of moisture is possible by Thu afternoon as high pres off the SE CONUS begins to reassert itself (into the mid Atlantic region). The upcoming conditions for Tue-Wed invof SE VA-NE NC potentially leads to extensive coverage of SHRAS/tstms and a heightened heavy rain threat. QPF amounts expected to avg 1-2 inches with 3+ inches psbl in areas that do get training storms. Low confidence in any 2nd-3rd period flood watch (at this time of year esp)...but something to keep in mind going forward. Elsewhere...VRB clouds-partly cloudy w/ decreasing PoPs SE- NW. There will be a slight change in airmass over much of the area into mid week (and some dropped in dewpoints/humidity). Highs both days in the l-m80s...75-80F at the beaches. Lows Tue night in the l-m60s NW to l70s SE. Partly sunny-mostly cloudy Thu w/ a lo prob for SHRAs/tstms (by afternoon)...esp SW portions of FA. Highs ranging through the 80s...75-80F along the beaches. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Anomalously moist air mass remains over the region through the upcoming weekend as a series of weakening cold fronts approach from the west. The fronts are expected to stall along the western slopes of the mountains, but pressure falls on the lee side of the Appalachians will induce lee/thermal troughing over central Virginia. Several disturbances progged to track across the region, resulting in scattered to numerous diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms Friday through Sunday. Have retained above-climo POPs. Near seasonable normal temperatures forecast Friday through Sunday with highs generally in the upper 80`s to low 90`s (cooler along the coast) and lows in the upper 60`s to low 70`s. Medium range guidance digs an upper level trough over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Sunday/Sunday night and into the eastern US Monday/Monday night. While there are still spatial and timing differences in the guidance, an associated (stronger) cold front progged to impact the region Sunday night or Monday. Given the strength of the upper trough, expect the front to clear the local area Monday night as surface high pressure builds over the Ohio Valley. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A diffuse cold front was situated over central Virginia and will stall over southeast Virginia overnight and into Tuesday. Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms were ahead of the front and will continue to affect the TAF sites...slowly improving from the west. The threat for severe thunderstorms has practically ended. Winds will continue from the southwest with gusty winds near any thunderstorms. Expect VFR and occasional MVFR conditions overnight. On Tuesday...showers and a few thunderstorms will continue over southeast portions mainly affecting ORF and ECG. VFR conditions are expected except for some MVFR with the precipitation. Showers in the southeast will taper off Wednesday. The chance for showers and thunderstorms returns Friday and Saturday ahead of a slow moving cold front with weak disturbances aloft tracking across the area. MVFR and patchy IFR stratus will be possible each morning for a few hours after sunrise. && .MARINE... No changes to the headlines this afternoon. A cold front approaches the region from the NW this evening and pushes into the area late tonight. S-SW winds 15-25 kt will continue into the evening before gradually diminishing toward daybreak Tuesday. The cold front is expected to move over the waters Tuesday morning around daybreak then stall along the Carolina into Wednesday. SW winds diminish below 15kt all waters around daybreak, however SCA flags for coastal waters north of Cape Charles Light will continue through the morning due to seas being slower to subside below 5ft. For Tuesday afternoon through the rest of the week, sub-SCA SW winds will prevail. Seas 2-4ft. Waves 1-2ft. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>634-638- 656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ654. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...ALB LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...LSA MARINE...JDM

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