Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 311744 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 144 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATING WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE STILL SITUATED ALONG THE NE NC COAST...WITH A SFC TROUGH FARTHER SOUTH FROM THE GA/SC COAST INTO CENTRAL NC. FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE SW...WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO SEND CLOUDS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA...ALTHOUGH STILL MAINLY HAVE CIGS OF 10-15 K FT ACRS THE CWA SO THE CHC FOR MEASURABLE RAIN REMAINS FAIRLY LOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS DESPITE SOME INCREASING COVERAGE ON THE RADAR. HOWEVER...SOME LOWER CIGS ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF...NOW PUSHING INTO CENTRAL NC AND WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT BY DAYBREAK...EXPECT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC. DESPITE THIS BEING A LOW QPF EVENT FOR MOST OF THE CWA...DECIDED TO BRING SCATTERED WORDING/CHC POPS INTO ALL OF CENTRAL VA THIS MORNING...WITH A BAND OF MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN (AND LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN) AND LIKELY POPS DEVELOPING OVER FAR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC LATER THIS MORNING...AND SLOWLY SHIFTING TO FAR SE VA/NE NC THIS AFTN. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS INTO THE AFTN ACRS AREAS FARTHER TO THE N AND W INCLUDING CENTRAL VA. WITH FAIRLY WEAK FLOW BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE THE SFC THIS AFTN COMBINED WITH LINGERING MID LEVEL MSTR...SUSPECT SKIES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY UNTIL LATE AFTN OR EVEN EARLY EVENING...FAR N/NW ZONES HAVE BEST CHC FOR SEEING SOME SUN AFTER 18-21Z...ELSEWHERE WILL CALL IT MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWERED HIGH TEMPS TODAY TO THE LWR 80S OVER THE FAR S/SE...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FOR TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS S/SE TO AROUND A 20% POP FARTHER NORTH AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GRADUALLY PUSHES FROM NW TO SE ACRS THE REGION. WARM/HUMID OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S NW...TO THE LOWER 70S FARTHER SE. TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY... WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING TO BEGIN THE PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHEAST (SUBTROPICAL) RIDGE BUILDS BACK WEST ACROSS THE SE COAST ON TUESDAY, AS WEAK TROUGHING TAKING SHAPE FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST TO THE OZARKS. MODELS EVENTUALLY CLOSE THIS WAVE OFF BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THIS IN TANDEM WITH THE ANTECEDENT MOIST AIRMASS AND UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. FORCING FOR ANY LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS IS FAIRLY WEAK AND MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH...AND THUS POPS REMAIN LOW BOTH DAYS. WILL CARRY A 20% POP ACRS THE FAR S/SE FOR ISOLATED AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS ON TUE...WITH A MORE GENERAL 20% POP FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON WED (30% NW). EXPECT HIGHS TUE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND...AND AROUND 90/LOWER 90S FOR MOST ON WEDNESDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS EACH DAY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER RETREATS FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH PASS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC ON THURS BUT THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH MID-UPPER 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST VA AND NORTHEAST NC MOVING NORTHEAST PRIMARY ACROSS ECG AND CLOSE TO ORF. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY 4 PM. FOR THE MOST PART MID AND HIGH CLOUDS COVERED AREAS FROM SBY TO RIC AND ROA SOUTH WITH JUST A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING MVFR CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO BREAK UP ACROSS CENTRAL VA HOWEVER A BKN DECK BETWEEN 5KFT AND 8KFT WILL PERSISTS. CEILINGS OF 3KFT TO 7KFT WILL PERSISTS AT ORF AND ECG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON GRADUALLY IMPROVING THIS EVENING. GENERALLY THE LOW AND MID- LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO BREAK UP LATE THIS EVENING. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT DUE TO FOG/STRATUS AT RIC...ORF AND ECG. SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING IFR FOG LESS THAN 2 MILES AND CEILINGS 1KFT OR LOWER BETWEEN 08Z-13Z...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE REGION AND POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD OFF ON GOING TO PESSIMISTIC IN TAFS. HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION EACH AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...RESULTING IN PATCHY EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG.
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&& .MARINE... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A COASTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE SE COAST. THE RESULT IS SWLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT. FEW GUSTS OF 20 KT OBSERVED NRN COASTAL WATERS. SEAS HAVE DROPPED TO 2-3 FT WITH WAVES 1-2 FT. COASTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE SE COAST TODAY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE SRN WATERS. S-SW WINDS 5-15 KT PERSIST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS GENERALLY SW-W AOB 15 KT. SEAS GENERALLY 2 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE REGION FRI...AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SWD OVER NEW ENGLAND. FLOW BECOMES NELY...WITH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIFFERING ON POTENTIAL SCA CONDITIONS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM LONG TERM...AJZ/DAP AVIATION...SAM/JAO MARINE...SAM/DAP

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