Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 250914 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 414 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THAT LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... DRY WX WILL PREVAIL ACRS THE REGION TODAY...AS HI PRES SLIDES ACRS THE GULF CST STATES AND OFF THE SE CST. UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLGTLY ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...RANGING FM THE UPR 40S N TO THE MID 50S S. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER LATE IN THE DAY...IN ADVANCE OF LO PRES DROPPING SE FM THE MIDWEST INTO THE LWR OH VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... ACTIVE PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM...GENERAL PATTERN IS AGREED UPON BY THE LATEST 12Z SUITE OF MODELS...BUT WITH DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SFC LOW OFF THE COAST LATE MON-TUE LEADING TO SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN SENSIBLE WX...MAINLY POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE REGION LATE MON-TUE. 12Z ECMWF IS BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AT DEVELOPING A CUTOFF UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE DELMARVA MON NIGHT/TUE...WHILE THE GFS AND NAM ARE WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE. MAIN THEME FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MIDDAY MON IS A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR...THUS MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE RAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY MON...RATHER THAN SNOW. WILL CARRY HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS (HIGHER NORTH) AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH MON AM. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S S TO THE LOWER 30S N. CONFIDENCE IN THE MON NIGHT TO TUE PERIOD IS BELOW AVG GIVEN THE MAJOR MODEL DISCREPANCIES...THE ECMWF FORECASTING A BLIZZARD FOR THE NRN MID ATLC REGION AND NE STATES...WHILE THE GFS/NAM WOULD SUGGEST OUR NE ZONES GET "BRUSHED" WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE GENLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND GONE CLOSE TO WPC FORECASTS. MOST OF THE CWA HAS A GOOD CHC FOR SEEING AT LEAST LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING...WITH THE MOST UNCERTAINTY OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA WHERE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS POSSIBLE. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS E TO HIGH CHC ELSEWHERE MON AFTN THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. HIGHS MON WERE RAISED INTO THE 45-50 F RANGE ACRS THE SOUTH...WITH UPPER 30S OVER THE FAR NORTH. TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL LATER IN THE AFTN...WITH PTYPE BECOMING MAINLY SNOW FROM N TO S LATE MON AFTN INTO MON EVENING. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS TUE IN THE 30S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUES NIGHT AS THE DEEP/ANOMALOUS NRN STREAM TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE TROUGH AXIS PROGGED TO PUSH OFFSHORE WEDS RESULTING IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT. DISTURBANCES IN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE THE LOCAL AREA WEDS...BUT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SFC AND DRYING CONDITIONS ALOFT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. CAA WILL RESULT IN H85 TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -6 TO -10C DURING THE DAY...YIELDING TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. COLDER TEMPS OVER THE ERN SHORE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WEDS NIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURS. SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING. WHILE THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION...BEST MOISTURE PROGGED TO BE ACROSS THE NE. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF RICHMOND THURS NIGHT AND SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH AND WEST. THERMAL PROFILES...LOW TEMPS AND AIR MASS SUPPORT PREDOMINATELY RAIN ATTM...BUT RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NE ZONES. DRYING FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THEREAFTER...MODELS COMPETING ON WHICH STREAM WINS THRU THE WEEKEND. GFS FAVORS A SRN STREAM SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF FAVORING A NRN STREAM SYSTEM. TEMPS GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL THURS-FRI...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S-LOW 40S SAT. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 1256 AM EST...VFR CONDS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS, WITH A CLEAR SKY EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING AHEAD OF NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NW. WINDS REMAIN W-SW AOB 10KT. OUTLOOK: ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS COULD AGAIN CAUSE SOME MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION...MOST LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE PSBL ESPECIALLY AT SBY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST FOR MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. && .MARINE... LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW WELL NE OF THE WATERS OVER ATLANTIC CANADA THIS MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS MORNING...BUT ARE LINGERING AROUND 5 FT JUST OFFSHORE. WILL HOLD ONTO SCA THROUGH DAYBREAK ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS...AND THROUGH LATE MORNING SOUTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND. OTHERWISE, EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS TODAY AS SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO BUIOLD TO THE SOUTH...EXTENDING NWD OVER THE WATERS. FLOW BECOMES SLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AOB 10KT...AND SEAS WL SUBSIDE TO 2-4FT BY AFTN. GRADUALLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON MON. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY AS IT LIFTS NWD ALONG THE COAST. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING THIS SYSTEM, QUICKLY BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO APPEAR CERTAIN FOR ALL WATERS...WITH CONFIDENCE REGARDING LOW END GALE CONDITIONS INCREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS. THE RESULT WILL BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS. DUE TO ONGOING SCA, WILL WAIT UNTIL CURRENT HAZARDS EXPIRE BEFORE HOISTING NEW FLAGS. BEST CHANCE FOR GALES WILL BE MON NIGHT WITH SCA CONDITIONS PERSISTING THRU TUES NIGHT. DECIDED TO FOREGO GALE WATCH HEADLINE FOR NOW WITH LIKELY TIME PERIOD OF GALES 4 FORECAST PERIODS AWAY. EITHER WAY, WINDS TO START TO DROP OFF WED/WED NGT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH WINDS BECOMING SSW THURSDAY AS HIGH SLIPS OFFSHORE. SEAS WL TAKE AWHILE TO DROP OFF, AND WL LKLY REMAIN ELEVATED AOA 5 FT THRU THE DAY WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM SET TO CROSS THE WATERS THURS NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE YET AGAIN WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THU NGT/FRI. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO 1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SEVERAL SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL REACH HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT MONDAY NIGHT. MINOR FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT OCEAN CITY INLET. HIGH TIDES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUES...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP OFF LATE TUES INTO TUES NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ634- 650-652. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ654- 656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...MAM MARINE...MAM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MAM

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