Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 281040 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 640 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY...BRINGING MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NE OH/NW PA WITH A SECONDARY LOW OVER SOUTHERN NJ. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW IN NJ INTO EASTERN VA/NC. WILL CARRY SLGT CHC POPS NEAR THE COAST TIL 14Z TO ALLOW THE LAST BIT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO PUSH OFFSHORE. AFTER THAT...SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE AND WEST WINDS USHER IN LOWER DEW PT AIR. THE SKY IS ALREADY QUICKLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING AND SHOULD SEE SUNNY TO PTLY CLDY CONDITIONS THE REST OF TODAY. LESS HUMID TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPS FROM THE LOW 80S NW AND AT THE BEACHES...TO THE MID/UPR 80S ELSEWHERE. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH A CLEAR SKY AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS. LOWS FROM THE MID/UPR 50S PIEDMONT TO MID/UPR 60S AT THE COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS ON MONDAY. VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM DIVING SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DRY/PLEASANT DAY WITH SKY CONDITIONS AVERAGING PTLY TO MSTLY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPR 80S. NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE TUE AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/TN VALLEY. WILL CARRY 30-40% POPS ALONG AND WEST OF I-95 FOR THE AFTN HOURS...LOWERING TO 20% NEAR THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... +PNA RESULTS IN A LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SFC LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO LIFT ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY TUES NIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WEDS. TRAILING COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION TUES NIGHT- WEDS...STALLING OVER THE REGION WEDS THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. PERTURBATIONS PROGGED TO DROP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE REGION. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY THRU THE PERIOD. ABUNDANT MOISTURE FORECAST WITH PWATS 1.8 INCHES TO 2.0 INCHES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. THE RESULT WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA. RETAINED 30-40 PCT POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. POPS AOB 20 PCT LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. COMBINATION OF SHOWERS...CLOUD COVER AND H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM 14-18C WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. SLIGHT COOLER ALONG THE COAST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. MODEL CONSENSUS LIFTS THE FRONT NWD EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IN RETURN FLOW. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SAT. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHRA/TSRA HAVE DISSIPATED AND/OR MOVED OFFSHORE AS OF 06Z. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN SOME PATCHY STRATUS WITH ~800-1200 FT CIGS. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO VSBY RESTRICTION WITH MOST LOCATIONS HAVING A 6-12 KT SW BREEZE. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 08-09Z AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FARTHER TO THE NE AND A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ALLOWING THE WIND DIRECTION BECOMES WESTERLY. A GUSTY W WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING 10-15KT WITH 20-25KT GUSTS. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A CHC OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FARTHER TO THE NE TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO PRODUCE LOW-END (15-20KT) SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BAY/SOUND/RIVERS...AND SEAS WILL LIKELY LINGER AROUND 5FT OUT NEAR 20NM N OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. SEAS ARE JUST NEARING 5FT OUT NEAR 20NM S OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN 5FT SEAS GIVEN THE EXPECTED WIND SHIFT TO W ALONG WITH SPEEDS AOB 20KT. THEREFORE...THE SCA HAS BEEN LOWERED S OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IMMEDIATELY INLAND TONIGHT ALLOWING THE WIND TO SHIFT FROM W TO NW AND FOR MOST AREAS THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH TO 10- 15KT. A SECONDARY SURGE COULD BOOST WIND SPEEDS LATER TONIGHT N OF CHINCOTEAGUE. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA. THE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE MONDAY ALLOWING A NW WIND TO DIMINISH...AND THEN BECOME SSE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH THEN BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH THE WIND BECOMING SSW AOB 15KT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W BY THURSDAY. WAVES IN THE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2-3FT TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WHILE SEAS SUBSIDE TO 3-4FT TONIGHT. AFTER TODAY AND TONIGHT...SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3FT...WITH 1-2FT WAVES IN THE BAY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630>638-650-652-654.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...AJZ

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