Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 171142 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 642 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure slides offshore as a weak warm front lifts north into the area later today. Low pressure tracks east from the Great Lakes to New England today into tonight, with its associated cold front pushing off the Mid Atlantic coast Wednesday morning. High pressure then builds over the area on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Latest sfc analysis shows 1009 mb low pres over the Midwest with 1026 mb high pres near the Mid Atlc coast and a weak warm front south of the fa. Aloft, a strong mid-level shortwave trough is also located over the Midwest with weak ridging along the eastern seaboard. The sfc high pushes offshore today as any weak resemblance of the warm front slides north into the area while southerly flow increases. Rain is likely today especially over northern areas due to WAA and weak perturbations in the flow aloft moving into a moist airmass. With forcing fairly marginal, rain amounts up to only a tenth of an inch are expected over most areas during the daytime period. Patchy fog is psbl as well this morning but not likely with primarily low stratus anticipated. Skies remain cloudy for the duration of the day with southerly sfc winds increasing to 10-15 mph late. High temps range from the lwr 50s Lwr Eastern Shore to the mid/upr 50s elsewhere, but cannot rule out some lwr 60s over southern areas. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Expect somewhat of a lull in precip early this evening, then POPS ramp back up as a cold front approaches the region from the W tonight. Strong shortwave passes by from 09-15Z/Wed. Best lift and moisture convergence looks to reside over the eastern shore this evening, then with a line of showers pushing S overnight into wed morning. Will carry 30-50% POPS well inland, with likely POPS/60% closer to the coast. Cold Front passes through Wed...and with deeper mixing and WNW flow in low levels...should see skies turn partly to mostly sunny late along with a warm day with highs at least in the mid 60s. Showers will be most likely across the E and SE where drier air is slower to arrive. Dry/mostly clear Wed night and Thu as sfc high pressure settles over the area. Lows Wed night in the mid/upr 30s inland to the lwr 40s far SE. Highs in the 50s Thu. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A series of low pressure systems will lift northeast from the Southern Plains during the long term period. This pattern will keep temperatures above normal for the long term along with a few rounds of precipitation. The timing of the precipitation has been moved a little earlier than the previous forecast. The first system will move through in the form of an upper level short wave Friday with likely POPs except 50 percent POPs for the northeast North Carolina counties. The precipitation ends from southwest to northeast late Friday and Friday evening. The next system will be stronger with a cutoff upper over the Mississippi Valley and associated deep surface low and frontal boundaries extending across the Mid Atlantic States. There is a good chance for showers in the Mid Atlantic States by Sunday afternoon which continue into Monday. Kept POPs no higher than 40 to 50 percent due to a lack of confidence on days 6 and 7. Max temperatures in the 50s Friday through Sunday warm to the lower 60s west of the Bay Monday. Lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s Friday morning warm into the 40s Saturday through Monday mornings. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Mainly MVFR/IFR conditions to start off the 12Z TAF period as low stratus is commonplace across the Mid Atlc. Could see some occasional LIFR cigs this morning as well but not confident enough to include in the TAFs attm. Otherwise mainly MVFR/IFR conditions expected for the duration of the TAF period as a warm front lifts north through the area later today, with winds aob 10 kt and a good chance of rain. A brief period of VFR is psbl to return midday, but MVFR/IFR returns later today with the pcpn. The initial band of rain is expected to move offshore this evening, with the potential for rain moving into SE VA/NE NC tonight into Wednesday morning ahead of an approaching cold front. Drier conditions arrive Wednesday aftn in the wake of the cold front followed by high pressure Thursday. Another low pressure system potentially impacts the region Friday, before dry conditions return Saturday. && .MARINE... High pressure slides offshore by daybreak as a warm front lifts nwd through the aftn, which will spread light rain across the area (especially north of New Point Comfort and Parramore Island). Winds generally s aob 10kt this morning will become more breezy 10-15kt this afternoon during a brief surge in winds. Mainly as a cold front approaches the waters, the pressure gradient tightens, and rainfall slowly tapers off within the warm sector. Rainfall continues to taper off during the first half of the evening but will become more widespread late this evening and overnight as a cold front crosses the waters...exiting the NE NC coast by mid-late morning. Winds become more sw but will remain aob 15kt overnight; gusts up to 20kt coastal waters. Seas 2ft today...increasing to 2-3ft tonight. Waves 1-2ft. The arrival of the cooler post-frontal air on Wednesday will likely result in a more uniform increase in nw winds rather than a typical surge. Speeds still generally aob 15kt with gusts around 20kt on coastal waters. Sfc high pressure builds in from the west Wed night and n winds will gradually diminish to 10kt or less by Thu morning. High pressure resides over the waters through Thu night with light and variable winds anticipated Thu aftn through Thu night. Seas 2-3ft. Waves 1-2ft. Sfc high gets pushed offshore Fri morning by an upper low expected to get stretched across the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic Region. A sfc low is anticipated to develop along a warm frontal boundary associated with this feature and then develop into a coastal low off the far SE VA/NE NC coast Fri night. The coastal low pushes well offshore by Sat with weak high pressure building in behind it during the day. Seas build to 2-4ft late Thu night due to nly swell from the slowly departing Wed system (despite being far enough offshore to have no other impacts on marine forecast). The 2-4ft seas persist into Sat. Waves continue at 1-2ft through Sat. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS LONG TERM...LSA AVIATION...MAS MARINE...BMD

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