Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 291114 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 714 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY...AND STALL ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATES A SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLC REGION FROM LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WV SATELLITE SHOWS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAILING THE SFC LOW TRACKING EAST OFF THE COAST OF MAINE. WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS STILL IN PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA...BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT STILL ENABLING A FEW SHOWERS TO PERSIST ACRS THE LOWER ERN SHORE JUST TO THE NORTH OF DORCHESTER MD. FARTHER SOUTH...EARLIER SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST HR. FOR THE REST OF TODAY...EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES (EARLY AM CLOUDS/FOG IN THE PIEDMONT WILL SCATTER OUT). IN GENERAL THERE IS A SLIGHT DROP IN DEWPTS ACRS THE FA AS HI PRES JUST OFFSHORE BEGINS TO SLIGHTLY BUILD WWD DURING THE DAY. FOCUS OF HIGHER POPS (30-40%) BECOMES CONFINED TO FAR NW PORTION OF FA WITH ONLY 10-20% POPS ELSEWHERE. SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN MID- UPPER 80S WELL INLAND...TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AT THE COAST. BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 F AND ANY REMAINING CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT SHOULD WANE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... OUR PD OF SUMMER-LIKE WX TO CONT THROUGH THE WKND. BY SAT...CDFNT PUSHES SE THROUGH THE OH VLY...RMNG FAR ENOUGH AWAY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE WX HERE. WILL KEEP CONDS WARM WITH SKIES AVERAGING MOSTLY SUNNY INTO THE EARLY AFTN...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE MID/LATE AFTN. WILL KEEP POPS AT ONLY 10%...WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE. CDFNT FM THE NW CONTS TO SLOLY APPROACH SUN. LATEST GFS IS FASTEST TO BRING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA...WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SLOWER. MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. POPS INCREASE TO 40-50% ACRS FAR NNW PORTIONS OF THE FA FOR THE LATE AFTN/EVE HRS...TAPERING TO 10% FOR SOUTHER 1/2 OF CWA. THE BULK OF PCPN XPCD TO BE ALG AND BEHIND THE FNT (AND THAT IS NOT LIKELY UNTIL LT SUN). HI TEMPS SAT AND SUN FM THE U80S TO ARND 90F INLAND...70S TO L80S AT THE CST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MID/UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COASTS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LATEST 00Z/29 GFS INDICATES THE TROUGH CLOSES OFF IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHILE THE ECWMF HAS A MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH...WITH THE RIDGE RETROGRADING W. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO DROP INTO THE REGION MONDAY. THE GFS REMAINS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER TO PUSH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY WILL NUDGE INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY...AS MID/UPPER RIDGING RETURNS AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. POPS AVERAGE 40-60% SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...THEN TAPERING OFF TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NNE. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE MONDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S N...TO LOW 80S S. COOLER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH ONSHORE FLOW. CURRENTLY WILL FORECAST HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 70S N TO NEAR 80 S...BUT THESE VALUES COULD BE COOLER DEPENDING ON CLOUDS AND PCPN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE THURSDAY. LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE THROUGH THE 60S. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. CALM- LIGHT S WIND AOB 5 KT WILL PERSIST THRU MID MORNING. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A FEW-SCT DECK AROUND 5K FT AGL ACROSS SE VA/NE NC...WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING. FOR TODAY...A SE WIND OF 5-10 KT PREVAILS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE. SCT AFTERNOON CU WITH DECKS 4-5K FT AGL EXPECTED. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA...BUT TAF SITES EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FRI- SAT. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP EXPECTED SUN-MON AS A COLD FRONT REACHES...AND THEN STALLS OVER THE REGION. && .MARINE... LATEST OBS OVER THE WATER REFLECT SLY WINDS AOB 10 KT. WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-3 FT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. A SELY WIND AVERAGES 10-15 KT TODAY. GRADIENT STRENGTHENS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SELY WINDS INCREASE TO A SOLID 15 KT...PUSHING SEAS TO 2-3 FT SAT AND 3-4 FT SAT NIGHT. WAVES BUILD TO 2-3 FT. FLOW BECOMES SLY 10-15 KT SUN...BEFORE THE FLOW WEAKENS SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDS. EXPECT INCREASING NE FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS/WAVES WITH ONSHORE FLOW. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...AJZ/LKB AVIATION...SAM MARINE...SAM

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