Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 280754 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 354 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will slowly slides off the New England coast through tonight. Meanwhile, low pressure will linger off the southeast coast Monday into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Hi pres aloft remains firmly in place over the Mid Atlantic region through today...while sfc hi pres slowly slides E off the New England coast. Meanwhile...very weak sfc low pres in the far wrn Atlantic will be slowly tracking wwd...approaching the NC-SC offshore waters. Deep layered ENE flow will remain in place. Sfc winds will average 10-15 mph at the coast...aob 10 mph inland. Will continue to have SCT-BKN SC moving onshore through today...most widespread expected to be over SE VA-NE NC...while starting the day w/ patchy ST and FG inland. Highes in the l80s at the immediate coast...the 85 to 90F elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Not much change to the pattern tonight-Mon/Tue. Another weak front pushes through the NE CONUS (and S into VA) as a sfc trough lingers off the coastal Carolinas. Highs will average in the u80s- l90s (l80s at the immediate coast)...w/ lows in the u60s-l70s along w/ 15-30% chances for mainly aftn/eve shras/tstms over SE VA- NE NC zones. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Will continue to go with a blend of the 12z GFS and 12z ECMWF for the extended period. Will have a slgt to small chc (15-30%) for pcpn Tue ngt into Thu evening fm the combination of possible tropical moisture along the coast and a cold front pushing acrs the area late Wed thru Thu. More comfortable airmass will filter into the region for Thu ngt thru Sat, as high pressure blds in fm the N and slides to just offshore by late Sat. Highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s Wed, in the mid to upper 80s Thu, and in the lower to mid 80s Fri and Sat. Lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s Tue ngt and Wed ngt, in the 60s to near 70 Thu ngt, and in the upper 50s to mid 60s Fri ngt. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Low level ENE flow bringing in SCT-BKN clouds (cigs roughly 800-1500ft) - most concentrated invof SE VA-NE NC...difficult attm to determine exact coverage though. Also...possible MVFR/IFR due to fog through about 12-13Z/28. Will not rule out isolated pcpn...mainly near ORF/ECG through today...otherwise generally high end MVFR to VFR in SCT-BKN CU. Reinforcing frontal boundary settle S across the FA late Mon-Mon ngt. Mainly dry weather is expected through Wed. For Sunday through Wednesday...isolated to scattered shras/tstms are possible each afternoon/evening across far SE VA/NE NC (mainly impacting KORF and KECG). && .MARINE...
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Sub-sca conditions will continue across the waters through at least the next few days. Sfc hi pressure over New England this morng will slide offshore tda with onshore flow continuing over the local area. Expect 1-3 ft waves over the bay and 3-4 ft seas over the coastal waters. Winds average 10-15 kt for Mon thru Wed, as high pressure weakens and weak low pressure areas or possible tropical lows will spin off the SE or Mid Atlc.
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&& .CLIMATE... Has been a rather hot and dry month of August over much of the area (quite a contrast to a summer that began very wet). Based on forecast temperatures for the rest of the month, Richmond and Norfolk are both going to rank in the top 10 warmest (with a good chance at being among the top 5 warmest). Richmond has only received 0.53" of rain for the month (if this were to stand, it would rank as the 3rd driest on record). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB NEAR TERM...ALB/BMD/LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...ALB MARINE...MAS CLIMATE...

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