Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 070026 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 726 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... RECORD LOW MAX TEMP WAS SET AT ECG TODAY...BOTH ORF AND SBY TIED THEIR RECORD LOW MAX TMPS. SEE RERECG/RERORF/RERSBY FOR DETAILS. PVS DSCN: THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST, WITH A SFC RIDGE EXTENDING E-NE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING FOR CLEAR AND UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS. MANY LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE LOWS IN THE LOW/MID TEENS...WHICH AGAIN ARE NEARLY -2 ST DEV FROM THE SEASONAL MEAN. INCREASING ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL PUSH THE ARCTIC HIGH WELL OFFSHORE. ADDITIONALLY ANY NRN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL STAY WELL N OF THE MID ATLANTIC. SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL MODERATING TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS SATURDAY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S OVER INTERIOR VA AND NE NC...WITH LOW/MID 40S OVER THE ERN SHORE AND COASTAL SE VA/NE NC. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE MILDER AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. SKY COVER SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SAT...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CHARACTERIZED BY A GRADUAL WARMUP IN TEMPS SUN-MON, THOUGH TEMPS STILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. SPLIT FLOW SETUP CONTINUES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...W/NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONFINED TO THE 4 CORNERS/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION INTO NW MEXICO. DO HAVE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY SUNDAY NIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA, AS THE SOUTHWEST TROUGH WILL EJECT SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL SCOOT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID-SOUTH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS ENERGY PROGRERSSES EAST, IT`LL SPREAD SOME LIGHT RAIN/SCT SHRAS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. DO TO LOW CHCS FOR MEASURING, WL STICK WITH NO HIGHER THAN A 20% POP MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER. REMAINING CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH POPS INCREASING BY LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AHEAD OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL PIECE OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY, WHICH SHOULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPTATION FROM SW TO NE TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. FOR TEMPS, THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATING AFOREMENTIONED WARMUP FROM THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. WENT TOWARDS THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE ON SUNDAY WITH SFC HIGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH (EXCEPTION BEING UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 ALONG ATLANTIC COAST OF EASTERN SHORE). GIVEN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS, WENT TOWARD THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE ON MONDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY SIMILAR TO THOSE OF SUNDAY...U50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTH...LOW TO MID 50S NORTH. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE GOMEX ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EVENTUALLY PUSHING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...SOME DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NWRD INTO THE REGION...BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON TUESDAY..ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS. THE STALLED BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE SE WEDNESDAY FOR LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD BY THURSDAY FOR DRY WX. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER GOMEX SYSTEM TO BRING RAIN BACK TO THE AREA NEXT FRIDAY. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ON TUE...TO THE LOW/MID 50S TO LWR 60S WED AND THU. COOLING BACK INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S NEXT FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER TN/KY/LA THIS EVENING HAS PUSHED DRY AIR IN THE AREA AND THE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH 00Z SUN. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM LIGHT N/NW TO S/SW BY SAT AFTERNOON AS THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE SE COAST. OUTLOOK SUN THRU TUES...DRY WX AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI REMAINING IN THE VICINITY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN MON NIGHT/TUE WITH THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM. && .MARINE... AS OF 3 PM...THE ONLY REMAINING SCA WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS WHERE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY FALL BELOW 5 FT THIS EVENING...PROBABLY TAKING UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR OBX CURRITUCK. N-NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO BETWEEN 5-15 KT AS WELL. BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN THE VICINITY AND SLOWLY SLIDING OFFSHORE. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SCA`S ARE NOT EXPECTED ATTM...EXCEPT POTENTIAL FOR ~5 FT SEAS ALONG THE NORTHERN OBX. && .HYDROLOGY... FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR BREMO BLUFF / RICHMOND WESTHAM ON THE JAMES RIVER AND LAWRENCEVILLE ON THE MEHERRIN RIVER. SEE LATEST FLWAKQ / FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH SEBRELL ON THE NOTTOWAY RIVER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .CLIMATE... RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY 3/7: RIC...12 IN 1960 ORF...17 IN 1899 SBY...11 IN 1960 ECG...17 IN 1960 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM SHORT TERM...MAM LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...ESS MARINE...JDM HYDROLOGY... CLIMATE...

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.