Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 140028 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 728 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A series of low pressure systems will pass to the north of the area tonight through Friday. Low pressure develops along the southeast coast Friday, then tracks northeast while staying offshore Friday night. High pressure returns Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Clipper low progged to track along the Mason-Dixon line tonight. Local area remains south of this track with little if any moisture to work with. Kept slght chc flurries across the lwr Md ern shore btwn 03Z-07Z as the high res data does show at least some lift there as systm tracks off to the east, otw dry. Partly to mostly cldy this evening with decreasing clouds after midnite. Lows in the mid 20s-lwr 30s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... High pressure results in dry conditions Thurs with moderating temps. Highs in the mid 40s-lwr 50s. Cold again Thu nite with low in the 20s to lwr 30s SE. Models continue to show a flatter northern stream systm Fri tracking north of the local area with any lift to produce QPF staying to the north. Meanwhile, moisture gathers ivof of a trof along the sern coast. Local area in btwn systms so kept Fri dry but mostly cldy. Highs from the upr 30s NW to near 50 SE. NAM dry Fri night but the GFS is showing a bit of phasing as low pressure tracks NE across the VACAPES. GFS even throws some moisture back towards the ern shore during the evening hours. Will carry slght chc snow shwr ivof OXB Fri evening. Otw, dry. Lows in the 20s except lwr 30s SE. Highs pressure builds across the srn states Sat / Sat nite. Dry and milder. Highs in the low-mid 40s. Lows Sat nite mid 20s-mid 30s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Model timing and moisture differences make for a low confidence forecast early next week (due to a split flow). The one factor that does seem to be in agreement is that temps remain warm enuf across the local area for any pcpn to fall as liquid. A warm front is progged to lift north of the area Sunday with svrl srn stream s/w`s progged to lift NE from the deep south thru Tue. Slght chc pops across the piedmont Sun aftrn. Highs in the upr 40s- mid 50s. ECMWF/Canadian have wetter solutions but with timing differences while the GFS is drier and keeps the deep moisture south of the local area until late Tue. Thus, keeping some continuity with the current forecast results in keeping chc pops Sun night into Tue for now. (All liquid pcpn with no higher than 40 pop). Dry Wed. Lows Sun nite in the upr 30s NW to mid 40s SE. Highs Mon/Tue in the 50s. Lows in the mid 30s NW to lwr 40s SE. Highs Wed in the upr 40s-lwr 50s. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR conditions expected through the 00Z/14 TAF forecast period. BKN-OVC CIGS mainly aoa 6-8kft and SCT flurries until after midnight as lo pres passes N of the FA. SSW winds aob 15 kt tonight becoming WNW 15-25 kts Thu. VFR conditions continue into Fri as hi pres dominates. Low pres off the coast may result in a few SNSHs at SBY Fri eve. Hi pres returns over the weekend..
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&& .MARINE... Winds are slowly beginning to fall this afternoon as the strong low over Eastern Canada begins to pull NE away from the waters. The pressure gradient should continue to relax this evening for a brief period of time, through about midnight, as high pressure slides just south of the waters. However, the next quick moving storm system, now over the Southern Great Lakes continues to push eastward. This will quickly turn the winds back out of the S to SW overnight with speeds increasing back to 20 to 25 kt, perhaps as high as 30 kt over the coastal waters. The cold front will race off the coast by 12z Thursday with a brief surge behind the front lingering through the afternoon hours. For now, have gone with SCA conditions for all areas through the afternoon hours on Thursday, except for the rivers which should see 10 to 15 kt winds overnight. There could be some gust on the waters up to 35 kt, but not enough to warrant a Gale, especially with the SW flow. Once this system exits on Thursday afternoon, high pressure will then build into the region, although it is a weak area so some light westerly flow will continue but will be below SCA level. On Friday, the region will be between a front to the south and another northern stream low pressure system. Winds will be generally light with some NE flow gradually turning to the SW and then NW by Friday night. A reinforcing cold front will cross the area on Saturday and with the flow increasing with the cold advection. This could lead to more SCA conditions. High pressure returns on Sunday with the flow turning back to the SW and with moisture on the increase some rain is possible Sunday night into Monday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Potential exists for some low water issues during Thurs tide cycles given the gusty offshore flow (W-SW). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for ANZ635>638- 656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Thursday for ANZ630>634- 650-652-654.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...ALB MARINE...ESS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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