Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 302001 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA 401 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure and associated frontal boundaries track across the region Friday. High pressure builds over the area for the weekend. Another area of low pressure crosses the area Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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Latest MSAS has high pressure off the New Jersey coast with a warm front snaking it way across the mts. Kept the evening dry except over extreme western zones where a few shwrs are possible before midnite. High res data shows that overrunning moisture pushes across the area after midnight ahead of the leading warm front. Chc pops east to likely over the piedmont late. Lows mid 40s north, lwr 50s south.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Will follow the premise that there will be two main areas of convection Friday. First one comes during the morning hours as the warm front lifts north across the fa. Mdt to hvy rainfall will be the threat here and added lclly hvy rainfall to the grids. Expect to see a few hour "lull" in pcpn coverage in the afternoon ahead of the triple point low progged to track east but remain north of the fa late. Thinking is that the second area of convection will be associated with the trailing cold front as it crosses the region Friday afternoon and evening. This is where/when the potential for strong to isltd severe tstrms will be but will be highly dependant on the amount of heating that occurs in the warm sector. NAM is the more "bullish" model with respect to a severe threat than the GFS. SPC keeps the entire fa in a marginal risk with the threat being large hail and damaging winds. Best instability progged across the southern half of the fa. Went ahead and beefed up the wording in the HWO for now. Will carry categorical pops all areas given the amount of both Atlantic and GOM moisture entrained into the system. Average QPF around one inch. Highs from the mid 50s-lwr 60s eastern shore, mid 60s-lwr 70s west of the Bay. Low moves off the NJ coast Friday evening. Dry slot behind it will likely cut off the moisture after midnight. Thus, likely pops during the evening tapers off to chc after midnight, ending all areas prior to 12Z Sat. Lows Friday night in the upr 40s-lwr 50s. Low pressure moves farther offshore Saturday with high pressure building into the area from the west. This high tracks over the area Saturday night then moves east Sunday. Upshot will be a dry and rather mild weekend. Should see a large range in temps Saturday with the coolest readings along the coast. Highs there from the upr 50s- lwr 60s ranging to the upr 60s-mid 70s west of the Ches Bay. Cooler Saturday night with lows 40-45. Highs Sunday in the 60s except remaining in the 50s along the coast.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High pressure slides offshore Sun night/Mon as the next low pressure system deepens over the Arklatex Region/Lower Mississippi Valley. The low continues to track NE into nrn OH/PA Mon night into Tue...dragging a cold front through the Mid Atlantic Region Tue aftn/evening. Increasing cloudiness late Sun night into Mon with similar temps to Sun. Lows in the 40s Sun night, and highs in the 60s Mon (upper 50s Atlantic beaches). Sfc pressure gradient tightens substantially late Mon night into Tue ahead of the approaching cold front. S-W winds gusting up to 25-30 mph will be possible. Widespread rainfall is anticipated during this timeframe with very low thunderstorm chances due to rain occurring primarily in the morning. Warmer temperatures Mon night/Tue as a warm front lifts north through the region. Lows Mon night in the mid-upper 40s far nrn counties (i.e. north of the warm front) and in the lower 50s elsewhere. Highs Tue in the 60s far nrn counties and in the lower 70s elsewhere.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure just off the Mid Atlantic coast will drift to the east as low pressure over the middle Mississippi Valley moves east through the Ohio Valley. A mostly overcast sky with ceilings of around 5 to 7 K ft will prevail during the balance of the afternoon with east and southeast winds of 6 to 12 knots. Overnight...winds turn more southerly and ceilings lower ahead of an area of rain that will arrive Friday morning. Visibilities and ceilings will lower to MVFR early Friday morning and to IFR at times late in the morning. OUTLOOK...Low pressure will continue to move east through northern parts of the Mid Atlantic States and eventually off the New Jersey coast by early Saturday morning. A trailing cold front will cross the forecast area late Friday associated with scattered thunderstorms. Precipitation and low conditions will move off the coast early Saturday morning with high pressure rebuilding back over the area for the weekend. There will be a chance for showers western portions of the area by late Monday as the next system develops over the Mississippi Valley. Widespread precipitation and degraded aviation conditions are likely Monday night and Tuesday. && .MARINE... Latest sfc analysis shows high pres stretching down through the Mid Atlc with a stalled frontal bndry over the SE states. Will maintain the SCA over coastal wtrs today for seas up to 5 ft out 20 nm. Mainly 10-15 kt NE/E flow today, with the high sliding offshore tonight and winds subsequently increasing late tonight and especially into Fri as the next low pres systm and associated cold front approach from the west. Marginal SCA conditions are psbl over the Bay and more likely over the cstl wtrs Fri with seas up to 6-7 ft, but will hold off on any headlines for now with this being third period and some headlines already in effect for today. The front crosses the waters late Fri night/Sat morning, with sub-SCA winds expected behind the front. Hi pres then builds in over the weekend. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EDT Friday for ANZ635- 636-638. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM EDT Friday for ANZ630>634. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Friday to 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Friday to midnight EDT Friday night for ANZ656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...LSA MARINE...BMD

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