Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 221212 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 812 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH TODAY...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY...AND PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... FCST AREA WILL REMAIN IN AN UNSETTLED/MURKY PATTER SFC-ALOFT THRU TNGT. UPR AIR LO PRES WILL LINGER OVR THE GULF CST STATES WHILE WEAK HI PRES OVR THE NE U.S. SLIDES E AND OFF THE MID ATLC CST. DEEPER MOIST/SCTD PCPN FM THE CAROLINAS AND SE STATES WILL TRY TO SPREAD NNE INTO THE CWA LATER THIS MORNG INTO EARLY TNGT. HIGHEST CHCS (30-40%) WILL REMAIN ACRS THE SRN HALF OF THE REGION WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY/DYNAMIC FORCING IS FCST. ENE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SE OR S DURING THE DAY...AND WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE EXPECTED...MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPR 80S INLAND...AND 80 TO 84 NEAR THE CST. LOWS TNGT IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... BY WED...NEXT TROF ALOFT TRACKS THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES INTO THE NE/MID ATLC REGIONS WED INTO WED NGT...PUSHING THE NEXT SFC COLD FRONT TWD THE FA. LO LVL FLO BECOMES MORE SSW ON WED...RESULTING IN BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS RESPONDING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. WILL MAINTAIN POPS AT 20-30% ON WED...ESPLY FOR WED AFTN/EVENG. HI TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LWR 90S INLAND...WITH 85 TO 90 NEAR THE CST. ADJUSTED POPS AT BIT FOR WED NGT THRU THU...BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL FCST`S (ESPLY THE GFS/ECMWF) MOVEMENT OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. MAINLY HAVE 30-40% POPS WED NGT...WITH 50-60% POPS THU AFTN INTO THU NGT. LOWS WED NGT IN THE LWR TO MID 70S...WITH HIGHS ON THU RANGING FM THE MID 80S TO LWR 90S. SOME STRONGER STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE THU AFTN INTO THU NGT ACRS SRN/SE VA AND NE NC. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE STALLING OVER NORTH CAROLINA LATER FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THE SLOW PROGRESS OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SOLID CHC POPS ALL AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT (HIGHEST SE). BY FRIDAY...SLGT CHC POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN 1/3RD OF THE FA NEAREST THE FRONT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BEGIN TO NUDGE INTO NORTHERN/CNTRL PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT SHOULD SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH BY FRIDAY NIGHT TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS ALL AREAS. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS NE NC...PENDING AGREEMENT OF NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A DRY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. BY NEXT SUNDAY/MONDAY...THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND TYPICAL DIURNAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 80S...EXCEPT SOME LOW 90S INLAND BY SUN/MON. LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THUS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN LOWERING CEILINGS BETWEEN 07-12Z. VFR CONDS IN PLACE ACROSS AREA TERMINALS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HRS, W/ MVFR/ TEMPO IFR CONDS MOST OR ALL OF THE SITES. PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A FACTOR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, THOUGH DID INCLUDE A VCSH AT ORF WITH SOME LIGHT RETURNS JUST OFF SE VA COAST. CONDS QUICKLY IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH VFR OCNL MVFR PREVAILING MOST OF THE DAY. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER ISOLATED AND MAINLY SW OF TERMINALS. OUTLOOK...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE AFTN. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY/VFR, ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PSBL FRIDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY IN THE SE. NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM SBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE...TECHNICIANS ARE AWARE OF THE PROBLEM. && .MARINE... LATEST OBS REFLECT A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING, AHEAD OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SW TO NE ALONG THE SE COAST THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AND WASHOUT BY MIDDAY, WITH WINDS BECOMING SE THIS AFTERNOON AOB 10 KT. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE SW TONIGHT, AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE WATERS FROM THE WEST. WINDS GRADUALLY RAMP UP AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. S-SW WINDS INCREASE TO ~15 KT LATE WED/WED NIGHT, AS MODEL GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN HAS BECOME A BIT QUICKER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS FROM THE NW THURS/THURS AFTN. WINDS VEER TO THE N-NE LATE THU/FRIDAY. GIVEN A RATHER WEAK CAA SURGE, SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED ATTM. STAYED CLOSE TO NWPS DEPICTION FOR SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WITH SEAS 2-3 FT BUILDING TO ~4FT WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING AS WINDS BECOME N-NE FRIDAY. WAVES WILL REMAIN 1 TO 2 FT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...TMG LONG TERM...ALB/JDM AVIATION...MAM MARINE...MAM

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