Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 171815 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 115 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak warm front lifts through the area this afternoon, as low pressure tracks east from the Great Lakes to New England. A cold front pushes off the Mid Atlantic coast Wednesday morning. High pressure then builds in from the west by Wednesday night and settles over the area on Thursday. The high slides off the coast Thursday night as another front moves in by Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Latest analysis shows ~1008 mb sfc low pressure over Michigan, with strong high pressure centered over eastern Canada, ridging SW to off the mid-Atlc coast. Sfc warm front is becoming somewhat ragged/disorganized to our S and W but weak resemblance of the warm front slides through the area into early aftn. Radar showing 1st batch of light rain moving off to the ENE now confined mainly from the middle Peninsula/northern Neck to the eastern shore. A brief 30-60 minutes of partial sunshine will occur across much of VA W of the Bay, but this should rapidly fill back in as another area of showers/light rain is developing over south central VA and will push to the E/NE over the next few hrs. In general, rain amounts will continue to be very light (and thus far have only been a few hundredths). Still, will maintain likely to categorical POPS over northern sections of the CWA into early aftn, tapered to just a 20% POP over northeast NC. By mid-late aftn will carry a more broad-brushed high chc to low-end likely POP for all zones. Temperatures as of 16Z avg in the upper 40s to lower 50s. With increasing SSW low level flow, expect to see highs over most of the CWA in the mid 50 to around 60 F (but will range from the lower 60s over the far south to the lower- mid 50s over the eastern shore). && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... After perhaps a few hrs of a lull early, POPS ramp back up this evening as a cold front approaches the region from the W. Strong shortwave passes by from 09-15Z/Wed. Best lift and moisture convergence looks to reside over the eastern shore this evening, then with a line of showers pushing S overnight into wed morning. Will carry 30-50% POPS well inland, with likely POPS/60% closer to the coast. Cold Front passes through Wed...and with deeper mixing and WNW flow in low levels...should see skies turn partly to mostly sunny late along with a warm day with highs at least in the mid 60s. Showers will be most likely across the E and SE where drier air is slower to arrive. Dry/mostly clear Wed night and Thu as sfc high pressure settles over the area. Lows Wed night in the mid/upr 30s inland to the lwr 40s far SE. Highs in the 50s Thu. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A series of low pressure systems will lift northeast from the Southern Plains during the long term period. This pattern will keep temperatures above normal for the long term along with a few rounds of precipitation. The timing of the precipitation has been moved a little earlier than the previous forecast. The first system will move through in the form of an upper level short wave Friday with likely POPs except 50 percent POPs for the northeast North Carolina counties. The precipitation ends from southwest to northeast late Friday and Friday evening. The next system will be stronger with a cutoff upper over the Mississippi Valley and associated deep surface low and frontal boundaries extending across the Mid Atlantic States. There is a good chance for showers in the Mid Atlantic States by Sunday afternoon which continue into Monday. Kept POPs no higher than 40 to 50 percent due to a lack of confidence on days 6 and 7. Max temperatures in the 50s Friday through Sunday warm to the lower 60s west of the Bay Monday. Lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s Friday morning warm into the 40s Saturday through Monday mornings. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Challenging forecast as waves of showers preceed a warm front this afternoon/evening given the prevailing BKN-OVC IFR CIGS. Given the sporatic nature of the showers, decided to go with a TEMPO group in the short term to account for the pcpn. CIGS will vary from IFR to MVFR at times. Pcpn chances shift to the sern and coastal areas after 00Z ahead of an approaching cold front Wed morning. Models differences tonight make for a difficult forecast as well. Despite increasing SW winds ahaed of the front, data suggests widespread fog (possibly dense). Didn`t go that low with VSBYS but did take them down to about 2SM with the 18Z issuance. Also wind shear is noted across coastal TAF sites with a 40KT JET noted at 2K FT. CIGS/VSBYS quickly improve after 12Z Wed with VFR conditions expected along with gusty SW winds up to 20 KTS. Another low pressure system looks to impact the region Friday, before dry conditions return Saturday.
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&& .MARINE... High pressure slides offshore by daybreak as a warm front lifts nwd through the aftn, which will spread light rain across the area (especially north of New Point Comfort and Parramore Island). Winds generally s aob 10kt this morning will become more breezy 10-15kt this afternoon during a brief surge in winds. Mainly as a cold front approaches the waters, the pressure gradient tightens, and rainfall slowly tapers off within the warm sector. Rainfall continues to taper off during the first half of the evening but will become more widespread late this evening and overnight as a cold front crosses the waters...exiting the NE NC coast by mid-late morning. Winds become more sw but will remain aob 15kt overnight; gusts up to 20kt coastal waters. Seas 2ft today...increasing to 2-3ft tonight. Waves 1-2ft. The arrival of the cooler post-frontal air on Wednesday will likely result in a more uniform increase in nw winds rather than a typical surge. Speeds still generally aob 15kt with gusts around 20kt on coastal waters. Sfc high pressure builds in from the west Wed night and n winds will gradually diminish to 10kt or less by Thu morning. High pressure resides over the waters through Thu night with light and variable winds anticipated Thu aftn through Thu night. Seas 2-3ft. Waves 1-2ft. Sfc high gets pushed offshore Fri morning by an upper low expected to get stretched across the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic Region. A sfc low is anticipated to develop along a warm frontal boundary associated with this feature and then develop into a coastal low off the far SE VA/NE NC coast Fri night. The coastal low pushes well offshore by Sat with weak high pressure building in behind it during the day. Seas build to 2-4ft late Thu night due to nly swell from the slowly departing Wed system (despite being far enough offshore to have no other impacts on marine forecast). The 2-4ft seas persist into Sat. Waves continue at 1-2ft through Sat. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...LKB/MAS SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS LONG TERM...LSA AVIATION...MPR MARINE...BMD is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.