Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 162103 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 403 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AND MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AREA OF SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISLTD TSTM OR TWO...WAS PUSHING THRU ERN/SE CNTIES LATE THIS AFTN...WELL IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT WHICH WAS MOVING INTO EXTRM WRN VA. THIS PCPN WILL EXIT OFF THE CST EARLY THIS EVENG...WITH THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWING LATER THIS EVENG INTO EARLY WED MORNG. THE SKY WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LO TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI...AS MAINLY ZONAL FLOW/DRY WNW WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION. LO PRES WILL BE MOVNG AWAY TO THE NE INTO THE NRN ATLC...AS SFC HI PRES GRADUALLY BLDS IN FM THE NW. EXPECT GENERALLY A MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKY THRU THE PERIOD. HIGHS ON WED IN THE MID TO UPR 50S...RANGING FM THE LWR 40S TO LWR 50S THU...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 40S FRI. LOWS WED NGT AND THU NGT RANGING FM THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... CONTINUE TO FAVOR A BLENDED SOLUTION LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND ITS MEMBER ENSEMBLES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS IN REGARDS TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER PATTERN AND THE EVENTUAL STORM TRACK OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST LATER FRIDAY. WHILE DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN LITERALLY ALL OVER THE MAP WITH THIS SYSTEM, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE OPERATIONAL CANADIAN REMAIN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. MODELS CAN AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE AREA TO BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT. ALSO WIDESPREAD CONSENSUS IN INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS DEVELOPING UPPER DISTURBANCE SLIDES NE FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE MID-SOUTH BY 12Z SATURDAY, WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST. DESPITE SOME CONTINUED TEMPORAL DIFFERENCES, MODELS ARE MORE OR LESS COMING INTO CONSENSUS WITH DEPICTION OF A LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER SYSTEM. THE RESULTANT STORM TRACK WOULD TRACK SFC LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE AND ANALOGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT OVERRUNNING PCPN QUICKLY INCREASING, WITH LIKELY POPS APPEARING REASONABLE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. GIVEN THE TRACK AND THE TRANSIENT, RELATIVELY WEAK SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH, STILL APPEARS TO BE JUST A COLD RAIN FOR OUR AREA. HAVE HELD ON TO SOME SNOW SHRA MENTION SAT NIGHT OVER INTERIOR ZONES AS FEW SNOWFLAKES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PCPN COMES TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT/ERY SUN MORNING. OTHERWISE, PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END QUICKLY INLAND AS SYSTEM PUSHES E-NE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD, REACHING ABOVE CLIMO BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM, WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 18Z...A BAND OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING THROUGH KRIC AND SHOULD ARRIVE AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES BY 20Z. BRIEF MODERATE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVE HOURS WHICH WILL TEMPORARILY PRODUCE IFR VSBYS. MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS THE PCPN WANES...AND SHOULD LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 03Z-05Z ONCE DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED WED THRU FRI. && .MARINE... LATEST OBS REFLECT SUB-SCA S-SE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTN AS WEAK SFC HIGH PRES PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND SFC COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE W. ARW/RUC HAVE HANDLED WINDS WELL THUS FAR AND HV LEANED IN ITS DIRECTION WITH TIMING OF SFC COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS EVENING. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT, 15-20 KT OVER CSTL WTRS. SEAS REMAIN SUB-SCA, BUT INCREASE TO 3-4 FT, HIGHEST OFFSHORE AND OVER NORTHERN WATERS. CHOPPY, ALBEIT SUB-SCA SEAS WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM, WITH WAVE PD INCREASING TO 10-12 SEC TOMORROW AFTN AND EVENING. DO HAVE THE CHANCE FOR A FEW GUSTS TO LOW END SCA OVER NORTHERN WATERS, BUT HV HELD OFF WITH ANY HEADLINES WITH PREDOMINATE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA. SFC HI PRES THEN SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WED NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...WITH GENERALLY NW WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. REINFORCING CAA SURGE THU NIGHT MAY BRING WINDS CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS OVR BAY / NRN WTRS...BUT STILL A WAYS OUT FOR US TO MONITOR FOR A FEW MORE FORECAST CYCLES. LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY, PUSHING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME, EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME, THOUGH LOOK FOR WINDS TO BACK FROM THE NE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND SUN NGT BEHIND THE SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...TMG LONG TERM...MAM AVIATION...JDM MARINE...MAM

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