-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 161925
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
325 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WEAK
FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN STALLS OVER NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC HI PRES RMNS OFF THE SE CONUS CST...WHILE A WK (ILL-DEFINED)
SFC BNDRY IS DRAPED E-W INVOF MD/PA BORDER WWD INTO SRN OH VLY.
VRY WARM AIR S OF THE BNDRY W/ MNLY WSWLY WNDS (A LTL GUSTY AT
TIMES TO ABT 20 MPH). CNVTN BEGINNING TO FIRE INVOF NW VA...JUST
NNW OF CHO...W/ ONLY ISOLD PCPN FOUND TO THE ENE INTO THE INTR
PORTION FO THE LWR MD ERN SHR. CNVTN HIGH BASED (~7KFT) AND
MODIFIED SOUNDINGS ACRS NRN PORTIONS OF FA SHOWING INVERTED V IN
LWR LVLS (TO ARND 850MB). SLGT POOLING OF DEWPTS (U50S) ACRS NRN VA
SO FAR THIS AFTN. ALSO...FREEZING LVL 11.5 TO 12KFT...WILL NEED
CORES OF ANY STMS TO AOA 30KFT FOR STRONG/SVR PTNTL. LMTG FACTOR
IS DP LYRD/DOWNSLOPING W WNDS PTNTLLY MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR STM
UPDRAFTS TO RISE SUBSTANTIALLY. MAIN THREATS - GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL. 17Z/16 RUC GENLY HAS DECENT HANDLING ON STM DVLPMNT
ATTM...AND HV FOLLOWED FOR EVE CNVTV POPS (WHICH CONFINES STMS TO
AREAS ALG-N OF A FVX TO WAL LN). S OF THAT LN ISOLD STMS AT
BEST...BUT RIGHT NOW PROB TOO LO FOR POPS ANY HIGHER THAN 14%.

AFT EVE STMS...BNDRY SINKS S THROUGH VA AND WINDS TURN MR NLY AFT
MDNGT. LINGERING SHRAS AFT MDNGT...THOUGH POPS AOB 20% THROUGHOUT.
LO TEMPS MNLY IN THE L/M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
FNTL BNDRY STALLS OVR NRN VA ON FRI...W/ SFC HI PRES PASSING BY TO
THE NNE OF FA. RESULT WILL BE ONSHR SFC WNDS...AND CORRESPONDING
COOLING. WILL HAVE HIGHEST AMT OF CLDNS FM CNTRL VA ON S...AND LMT
CHC POPS TO MUCH OF THAT AREA (HIGHEST FAR SCNTRL VA INTO INTR NE
NC).

FM FRI NGT THROUGH SAT...WK LO PRES TRACKS E INTO THE CNTRL OH
VLY...RESULTING IN INCRSG MSTR INTO THE MDATLC RGN. FNTL BNDRY
RMNS S ACRS NRN NC...KEEPING ONSHR WNDS OVR MUCH OF THE FA
(THROUGH SAT). IN LEANING CLOSER TO 12Z/16 ECMWF WILL HAVE
HIGHEST (CHC) POPS INLAND FRI NGT THROUGH SAT...THOUGH WILL HAVE
VRB CLDNS OR MCLDY CONDS.

HI TEMPS FRI FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST TO L/M80S INLAND. LO TEMPS
FRI NGT FM THE M50S TO L60S. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE L/M70S AT THE
CST TO 75 TO 80F INLAND.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
PASSING OVERHEAD WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AN H5 RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BUILD OVER THEN EASTERN U.S.
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...THEN SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST LATE WEDNESDAY AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE MID-ATLANTIC. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHC POPS ON TUESDAY DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS AS
TO WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES FAR ENOUGH OFF THE
COAST. THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON
THE WARM/MILD SIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S
AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT
W/SW WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KT. AS THE
FRONT DROPS INTO NRN VA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE REGION...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER. MVFR/IFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF ANY STORMS IS NOT HIGH ATTM...SO HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED TEMPO GROUP MENTIONING RAIN SHOWERS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS SWD...CROSSING THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BACK FROM THE W/SW
TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT REMAIN AOB 10 KT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY
ACROSS SRN VA/NRN NC. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS
WEEKEND...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE N/NE FRIDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...BECOMING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE LIFTING NWD AS A WARM FRONT BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. E/SE WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. SEAS
MAY BUILD TO 5 FT OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...SAM/DAP
MARINE...JDM