Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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106 FXUS61 KAKQ 191445 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1045 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN SHORE... WHILE A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS. THAT COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTN...THEN PUSHES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA INTO THE EVE. THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND LINGERING CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES MAY RESULT IN ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN PRE-COLD FRONT. THE PRIMARY AREA OF POSSIBLE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATER TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE E OF I95...ESPECIALLY IN SE VA/NE NC. WARM AND HUMID AGAIN TODAY. HIGH TEMPS FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90F (EXCEPT COOLER AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST).
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... CDFNT SETTLES E AND S OF THE FA (EARLY) TNGT. HAVE MAINTAINED 30-50% POPS TO SE VA/NE NC THROUGH ABT 04Z/20. CLEARING OUT POST CDFNT FM NW TO SE...W/ SOME LWRG OF DEWPTS. LO TEMPS IN THE 60S. COOLER/DRY SFC HI PRES BEGINS TO BUILD TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WNW WED...YIELDING A DRIER/MORE COMFORTABLE DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPS FROM THE MID 70S NORTH TO THE LOW 80S SOUTH. COMFORTABLE WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVR THE SE CONUS STATES. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL GET SHOVED NORTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTN/EVE. WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. COOL AGN THU...W/ MOST HI TEMPS IN THE L70S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE REGION THU NIGHT...AND SFC LOW PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE COAST. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHC POPS THU NIGHT...AND SLIGHT CHC POPS THROUGH FRI MORNING IN THE FAR SE. OTHERWISE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI-SAT...AND SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON SUN. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FRI/SAT...PARTICULARLY AT THE COAST ON SAT AS THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE...1030 MB+ AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES IN THE AFTN AS A PIECE OF THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE. SKIES WILL AVG MOSTLY SUNNY BOTH DAYS ASIDE FROM SOME LINGERING CLOUDS FRI MORNING. HIGHS FRI WILL BE FROM 75-80 F INLAND...TO 70-75 F NEAR THE COAST...TRENDING DOWN TO THE MID 70S SAT INLAND TO ONLY THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S AT THE COAST. LOWS WILL GENLY RANGE THROUGH THE 50S SAT AND SUN MORNING. FLOW TURNS AROUND TO THE SSW SUN/MON AS SFC HIGH PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WARM BACK INTO THE LWR 80S INLAND ON SUN...AND 85-90 F BY MON. CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY THROUGH MIDDAY MON...THEN CARRY 20-30% POPS ACRS THE NORTH BY MON AFTN. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. ALTHO...EXPECT MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS AT SBY THRU EARLY THIS MORNG...DUE TO AREA OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM MOVNG THRU. OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE A VCSH AT OTHER TAF SITES DUE TO CURRENT ACTIVITY ON RADAR...AND LINGERING INSTABILITY/BOUNDARIES WITH SURFACE TROF CROSSING THE REGION. CONTINUED CHCS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING TODAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACRS THE AREA. FOR NOW...HAVE A VCSH STARTING AT 16Z-18Z AT THE TAF SITES AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY THIS EVENG. FRONT PUSHES OFF THE CST TNGT INTO WED MORNG...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THRU WED...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA. NEXT THREAT FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE THU...AS A SHRTWV TROF MOVES ACRS THE REGION. && .MARINE... WEAK SFC TROF MOVNG THRU THE CHES BAY AND CSTL WTRS EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL PUSH OFFSHR DURING THIS MORNG. LIGHT ONSHR FLO 10 KT OR LESS...WILL BECOME SW OR W. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACRS THE WTRS THIS EVENG INTO TNGT...WITH WINDS BECOMING N-NW POST-FRONTAL. NOT A REAL STRONG COLD FRONT...BUT DOES APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT COOL AIR SURGE TO LEAD TO LOW END SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE CHES BAY. SO...HAVE ISSUED A SCA FOR THE ENTIRE CHES BAY FM LATE TNGT THRU WED MORNG FOR ZNS 630>632...AND FM EARLY WED MORNG THRU EARLY WED AFTN FOR ZN 634. AT THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT CONDS BELOW SCA FOR THE RIVERS/SND/OCEAN. SFC HI PRES BLDS INTO THE REGION FM THE W WED NGT...WITH A WEAK LO PRES SYSTEM PASSING BY TO THE S ON THU. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR NOW...MODELS KEEP WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT...10-15 KT AT MOST ALTHO THIS COULD CHANGE. HI PRES THEN BLDS OVER THE AREA FRI AFTN-SUN...FAIRLY COOL AIRMASS INITIALLY WILL LIKELY BRING SOME INCREASE IN WINDS FRI INTO SAT. && .EQUIPMENT...
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NWR SALISBURY MD HAS RETURNED TO SERVICE.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...TMG MARINE...TMG EQUIPMENT...AKQ

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