Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 201735 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 135 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... CLDNS RMNS EXTENSIVE OVR THE FA...W/ SCT SHRAS MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF SCNTRL VA/INTERIOR NE NC. OVERALL PATTERN RMNS UNCHANGED...W/ WK SFC HI PRES INVOF ERN NEW ENG...TROUGH OFF THE MDATLC/SE CST AND WK SFC LO PRES INVOF CNTRL GULF STATES. LO LVL FLO FM THE NNE...AND ALG W/ THE CLDS WILL KEEP TEMPS BLO SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE AGN. RUC SHIFTS CURRENT AREA OF SHRAS TO THE E WHILE DISSIPATING NEXT FEW HRS. WILL HAVE VRB CLDS/PCLDY THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...W/ LMTD FORCING (AT BEST)...POPS WILL LARGELY STAY BLO 20-30%. HI TEMPS FM THE U70S TO M80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... FOR TONIGHT...NAM/GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS AMPLIFIES FROM THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL GENLY ALLOW THE SFC LOW ACRS THE TN VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES TO SPREAD INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE EASTWARD AND CLOSER TO THE SE/MID ATLC REGION. SOME INDICATION THAT THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES SPLIT WHICH COULD KEEP MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH...SO WILL STILL KEEP POPS IN CHC RANGE OVERNIGHT AND BEYOND. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS GENLY IN THE MID- UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. STUCK IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN SFC-ALOFT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WK. ONE PIECE OF UPR TROUGH EXITS NEW ENG THROUGH TUE...W/ TRAILING PIECE LINGERING INVOF ERN GULF STATES. MEANWHILE...STRONG RIDGE RMNS ANCHORED FM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...HI PRES TO RMN SITUATED FM NRN MDATLC TO CANADIAN MARITIMES...W/ WK TROUGH FOUND E OF THE CAROLINA CST. DYNAMICS/FORCING FOR PCPN RMNS WK THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS LO LVL FLO CONTS MNLY FM THE OCN. XPCG VRB CLDS TO PCLDY WX THROUGH THE PD...W/ A CONTD/GRADUAL INCRS IN DEWPTS WHILE (DAYTIME) TEMPS ARE HELD DOWN TO OR BLO SEASONAL NORMALS. BULK OF POPS WILL RMN AOB 30%...AND MNLY FAVOR AREAS INLAND/SRN PORTIONS EACH DAY. HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S MON...M/U80S TUE. NIGHTTIME LO TEMPS FM THE 60S TO L70S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME THE MORE DOMINANT WX FEATURE AROUND BY THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK...WITH INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY MORE TYPICAL OF LATE JULY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW LATE THURSDAY...BEFORE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE IN THE WEEK. TYPICAL DIURNAL TSTM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WED/THURS WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. TSTM CHANCES SHOULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER THURSDAY DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. ASSUMING THE COLD FRONT IS ABLE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY...ANY PCPN CHANCES WOULD BE LIMITED TO SOUTHERN AREA CLOSET TO THE FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTH THRU NEXT SATURDAY. HIGHS WED/THURS IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S. HIGHS FRI/SAT IN THE 80S. LOWS THRU THE PERIOD IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LOW PRESSURE A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE VA EASTERN SHORE IS GRADUALLY PULLING AWAY PER VIS SATLLITE IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE HAS HELPED MAINTAIN SOLID IFR/MVFR CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE DELMARVA. THESE CLOUDS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH 00Z. LOW LVL FLOW CONTINUES TO BE FROM THE NE/E THROUGH TAF PERIOD...WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AS SOME TERMINALS. 12Z GUIDANCE ALL POINTING TO A RETURN OF IFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE VSBY AT KSBY AFTER 03Z...AND HAVE CHANGED TAF IN THIS DIRECTION. HWVR...HAVE NOT GONE AS PESSIMISTIC AS NAM. GUIDANCE ALSO POINTING TO IFR OVERNIGHT AT KRIC...AND TSECTIONS SUGGEST LO LVL MOISTURE DEEPENS OVERNIGHT. HWVR...FOR NOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS JUST ABOVE IFR...AS GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY NAM...CAN BE TO AGGRESSIVE. ELSEWHERE...MVFR FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR EXPECTED AFTER 12Z-13Z MONDAY. NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM SBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE...TECHNICIANS ARE AWARE OF THE PROBLEM. INCLUDED AMD NOT SKED FOR NOW. && .MARINE... ...UPDATE...ISSUED SCA UNTIL 00Z FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 10 NM...AS BUOY 44009 HAS BEEN AOA 5 FEET SINCE SUNRISE. EXPECT SEAS TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...AS LO LVL FLOW WEAKENS. INVERTED TROF/SFC BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE CST TODAY INTO EARLY TUE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED NE OR E WINDS 15 KT OR LESS ACRS THE WTRS. WAVES WILL RANGE FM 1 TO 3 FT OVR THE RIVERS/CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SND...WHILE SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT. THAT BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT EARLY TUE...WITH HI PRES BLDNG OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUE INTO THU. WINDS WILL TURN FM THE SE TO THE SW DURING THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE WTRS FM THE WNW LATE THU/THU NGT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...WRS MARINE...TMG

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