Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KAKQ 151510
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1010 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017
A frontal boundary will remain well south of the local area the
into Monday as high pressure builds across New England. A series
of weak low pressure systems will track along that boundary
resulting in periods of unsettled weather through early in the
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Current analysis indicates broad sfc high pressure (~1032 mb
centered over the lower Great Lakes, ridging SE into the
Delmarva. WNW flow aloft will bring dry conditions today, but
with a fair amount of low level (800-900 mb) moisture to
linger, especially over the far southern and western sections
of the CWA. Had a brief period of sunshine push through near AKQ
over the past hr but skies have once again clouded over. Made
some minimal changes to the near term forecast for today, but
overall thinking remains similar with skies to avg out partly-
mostly sunny for the MD eastern shore, with more of a mostly
cloudy becoming partly sunny trend elsewhere (and tending to
stay mostly cloudy along/W of i-95 and over the interior or
northeast NC. Temperatures currently avg 40-45 F most places,
with highs expected to range from 45-50 F.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Models continue to begin spreading moisture back NNE into the
region Sun night into Mon...but w/ the region E of the ridge
axis (invof TN/OH valleys)...forcing for widespread/significant
pcpn (-RA) will remain weak. Thus...will have 20-40% PoPs
across the piedmont to I-95 late Sun night...lowering through
the day Mon. Skies remain partly cloudy longer Sun night over
the E/NE so some lows in the u20s will be possible from the nrn
Neck to the eastern shore...with lows in the mid 30s-around 40 F
elsewhere. Thicknesses show p-type mainly RA...though w/
temperatures aob 32F far NNE...could be light mixed p-type far
NNE should pcpn make it that far E (late tonight/early Mon).
Cloudy Mon with CAD setup but low PoP (generally aob 20%). Highs
Mon in the low-mid 40s NNW to around 50 F far SE. Strong sfc
low pressure moves NE to the wrn Great Lakes on Tue...lifting a
warm front N of the local area. Still uncertain on how much (if
any) sun develops so while temps moderate, highs may not get out
of the 50s (will have low 60s SE for now). PoPs mainly 20-40%
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Above normal temps expected acrs the fcst area thru the extended
period. Will continue to go with a blend of the ECMWF and GFS
with respect to the timing/placement of fronts and the chcs for
showers. Best chcs will be Tue night/Wed and again Fri night/Sat.
Highs will range fm the mid 50s to mid 60s thru the period, with
lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s Tue night, and ranging fm the
upper 30s to upper 40s Wed night, Thu night, and Fri night.
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sfc hi pres is centered invof New England as of 06Z/15 w/ a
surface ridge axis extending to the S into the Mid-Atlantic
region. A stationary front is situated across SC...w/ weak sfc
lo pres off the Outer Banks. Aloft...s/w is moving off the nrn
Mid- Atlantic coast taking -RA off the coast. VRB CIGS are
expected (MVFR/IFR) through (at least mid) morning. VSBY is
generally expected to remain aoa 4SM. CIGS are expected to lift
N-S w/ some clearing expected by aftn. Sfc hi pres will remain
over the region Sun night into Mon...although mid and high
clouds are expected to increase Monday. A warm front pushes into
the FA later Mon night and lifts N of the region Tue. This
could produce some MVFR cigs late Mon night into Tue morning. A
cold front approaches from the NW Tue night and crosses the area
Wed. This will bring a chc of rain along with degraded flight
conditions. High pressure is expected to return Thu.
A frontal boundary remains south of the area today as sfc high
pres builds in from the west. A weak northerly surge is expected
later this morng, with 15 kt winds staying just below SCA
criteria over the Bay. Sub-sca conditions then continue early
this week with high pres remaining in the vicinity and the front
staying south of the area...1-2 ft waves over the Bay and 2-3 ft
seas over coastal waters. A warm front lifts north through the
area Tue, with winds becoming southerly Tue ahead of the next
cold front which crosses the waters Wed.