Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 180258 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 958 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure intensifies off the Delmarva coast this evening, bringing widespread rain to the region. High pressure returns Sunday with mostly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures. A warm front lifts north through the area Monday and Monday night. High pressure becomes anchored off the southeast coast Tuesday and Wednesday bringing a return to well above normal temperatures.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Current wv imagery depicts the tail of an upper jet progressing across the nrn Mid-Atlantic with a trough digging across the Great Lakes. At the surface, low pressure is organizing off the coast of the Delmarva. Light rain continues across central/ern/sern VA and NE NC with temperatures ranging from the mid/upper 30s N to the low/mid 40s SE under a cloudy sky. Light rain will continue through midnight and then gradually taper-off through the overnight hours as the primary upper forcing lifts farther NE and as drier mid-level air arrives from the NW as low pressure intensifies off the Delmarva, and then heads out to sea by Sunday morning. Lows in lower 30s NW to the upper 30s/lower 40s SE. QPF amounts to avg 0.25 to 0.50" N to 0.15 to 0.30" S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Sfc high pressure builds over the region Sunday for a dry/mostly sunny day. Highs mainly from the mid to upper 50s west of Ches Bay (warmest south central VA), with cooler conditions, mainly in the in the upper 40s/lower 50s close to the coast with light onshore flow. Models bring next system and a return of moisture back from the SW by Mon. Mostly clear Sun evening with increasing clouds overnight from SW to NE. Lows mainly 35-40F though readings may actually rise a bit after midnight across the west. A slight chance for rain late west of I-95. With the sfc high well off the mid- Atlc/New england coast on Mon, overrunning moisture pushes across the local area with mainly cloudy skies and a light E/SE flow. Best forcing remains off to our NW however, so not necessarily looking at a lot of QPF. Will carry PoPs to 40-50% most areas for now. Not a true CAD setup, but a lot of clouds and shallow mixing will keep it cool for much of the day, especially across the Piedmont. Late day highs will avg 50-55F W/NW to the mid 60s far SE. Increasing SW flow Mon night as upper ridge axis begins to amplify/build off the SE coast.Models indicate some continued light QPF amounts Mon night, but there is little forcing for precipitation so will genly keep PoPs capped at just 20%. Milder with little drop in temperatures due to the SW flow, lows ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s. Area will be firmly in the warm sector on Tue, with strong upper ridge centered over the Gulf Stream off the SE coast. GFS/NAM depict a lot of low level moisture across the area so skies may start of mostly cloudy. Suspect the SW low level flow and 850mb temperatures rising to +10 to +12 C will be sufficient to scour out the low level clouds by late morning and allow for a partly sunny day. Highs expected into the 70s except for locally cooler conditions at the immediate coast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A strong +2 st dev 500mb ridge will be located over the Subtropical wrn Atlantic Wednesday bringing very warm temperatures. Lows Tuesday night/Wednesday morning are forecast to be in the mid 50s to around 60F, followed by highs Wednesday in the upper 60s/low 70s over the Ern Shore, and at least mid/upper 70s elsewhere. There is the potential for low 80s over SE VA/NE NC. A weak shortwave trough is progged to rotate around the ridge Wednesday, and this could result in some more clouds and low PoPs (20-30%) over the Piedmont. The ridge slowly breaks down Wednesday night into Thursday, but remains strong. Therefore, a cold front to the NW will have slow progress reaching the Mid-Atlantic. PoPs Wednesday night will range from 20-30% S to 30-40% N, then ~30% S to 50-60% N Thursday. Lows Wednesday night will mainly be in the 50s, with the potential for wide ranging highs Thursday possibly around 60F/low 60s N to the 70s SE depending on where the cold front reaches. Upper level ridging will continue to prevail but gradually weaken off the Southeast coast later next week into next Weekend with well above normal temperatures continuing. There remains some uncertainty with the cold front, with the general consensus for the front to be into NC Friday with highs in the 50s to low 60s, and then lifting back N as a warm front with highs in the 60s to around 70F by Saturday. Forecast PoPs are mainly 20-30% Thursday night through Saturday. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Widespread MVFR/IFR conditions as low pressure system just off the coast and upper level cyclonic pattern pushes light to moderate rain through the region. The low is forecast to continue NE over the waters overnight and the rain will eventually move off the coast before daybreak as high pressure moves into the area. Ceiling and visibility conditions will slowly improve through the night and likely become VFR between midnight and 4:00 AM. Winds will mostly be light less than 10 kt during the overnight and shift to the NW and NE. VFR conditions expected for Sunday with few clouds as high pressure builds in. Another round of rain showers and flight restrictions/lower cigs are possible by Monday and possibly lasting through Mon night/Tue morning with low stratus. Expect VFR/warm SSW flow to prevail Tue after the early am clouds scour out. A cold front approaches from the NW on Wednesday but expect VFR conditions to prevail.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... Latest sfc analysis shows high pressure off the New England coast with weak low pressure off the Carolina coast. Seas remain close to 5 ft over far southern coastal wtrs this aftn, but with a slight downward trend expected and this being quite marginal will not hoist any headlines. The aforementioned low slides NE along the coast tonight and strengthens. A brief period of SCA criteria winds is psbl over the wtrs, but with this expected to last less than a few hours, will maintain previous thinking that a MWS or SMW will likely be best suited to handle this. Pressure gradient then slackens into Sun, with sub-SCA conditions expected to continue through at least the middle of next week. NNE winds late Sun veer around to the ESE Sun night as a surface high slides offshore, becoming southerly Mon night into Tue as a warm front lifts north across the waters. SSW flow persists into midweek, with seas remaining 2-4 ft. && .CLIMATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Another round of record highs will possibly be challenged Tue 2/20 and Wed 2/21: * Record highs: * Date: Tue 2/20 Wed 2/21 * RIC: 77 (1930) 75 (1930) * ORF: 77 (1991) 79 (2014) * SBY: 75 (1930) 75 (1943) * ECG: 78 (1991) 77 (2014)
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .EQUIPMENT... KAKQ radar will be down UFN. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...LKB/JEF MARINE...MAS CLIMATE...AKQ EQUIPMENT...AKQ

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.