Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 280855 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 455 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES ON MONDAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LATEST WX ANALYSIS REVEALS BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NE AND MID ATLC STATES. A STRONG UPPER LOW IS OVER NEVADA...WITH ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER IOWA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...PATCHY FOG UNDER OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S. GENLY THE FOG HAS NOT BEEN TOO WIDESPREAD/DENSE. CONTINUED NICE WX TODAY...SOME INCRS IN CLOUDS IS XPCD THIS AFTN AS A CSTL FNT (INVERTED TROUGH) BEGINS TO ORGANIZE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST BUT CONDS STILL AVG OUT PARTLY SUNNY (AT WORST) THERE (AND MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE). HIGHS AVG IN THE U70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE L80S (WELL) INLAND. INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY THICKEN/LOWER OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD BE THIN ENOUGH IN THE EVENING FOR TEMPS TO RADIATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. NOT QUITE AS COOL AS PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH LOWS 55-60 F MOST AREAS. SHOULD ALSO SEE LESS IN THE WAY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST FROM THE MIDWEST TO A POSITION ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY MON AFTN...THE OVERALL FLOW REMAINS QUITE WEAK. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS...AND AS A RESULT IT SHOULD BE DIFFICULT TO PULL DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE REGION. WILL BE RELYING ON SOME MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN TO BREAK OUT ACRS WRN NC/SOUTH CENTRAL VA BY LATE MORNING...SLOWLY SHIFTING ENE THROUGH THE AFTN. THIS IS NOT ALL THAT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE ON MON HAS BEEN EXPECTED TO BE WEAK. OVERRUNNING WILL BE ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN/EVENING. HIGHEST POPS WILL RESIDE ACRS THE PIEDMONT (40-50%)...LOWEST OVER THE ERN SHORE (20%). HIGHS MON WILL AVG IN THE LOWER 70S FAR WEST...TO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 F ACRS THE EAST (STAYED COOLER THAN MAV BUT A TAD WARMER THAN MET NUMBERS). MON NIGHT APPEARS TO HAVE THE GREATEST CHC FOR PRECIP...MAINLY OVER THE FAR SE AS WEAK SFC TROUGH BECOMES ALIGNED OFF THE SE COAST AND THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE REGION. TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY WILL KEEP LOW END LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR SE...WITH LOW CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. EVEN IN THE SE...QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENLY BE LIGHT (MAINLY 0.25" OR LESS). LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S FAR NW TO THE 60S ELSEWHERE. FOR TUE...LOCAL AREA LOOKS TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN NC)...AND A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE LOCAL AREA...AND HAVE DROPPED POPS CONSIDERABLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WILL MAINTAIN JUST A CHC POP ACRS MAINLY SE VA/NE NC...AND 20% OR LESS ELSEWHERE. SKIES SHOULD AVG OUT PARTLY SUNNY (POSSIBLY MCDY SE). RAISED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES...GENLY INTO THE UPPER 70S N TO LWR- MID 70S FAR SOUTH (THIS IS STILL A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE). && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... LINGERED LOW END CHC POPS INTO WED. SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN ORIENTING ANOTHER DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH ALONG/JUST OFF THE COASTAL PLAIN, WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVING NE ALONG IT. MADE MINIMAL CHANGES IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. STILL A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD WITH DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE STILL STRUGGLING TO DIAGNOSE THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/ECMWF NOW DEVELOPS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OR CUTOFF LOW PUSHING EAST ACRS PA/NJ ON WED WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE STRONGER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE. SFC LOW PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE MID ATLC/SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THE DAY WED. HIGHEST POPS WILL TEND TO STAY NE OFFSHORE WITH THIS PATTERN...BUT ULTIMATELY, POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED AS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT CAN BE REALIZED. SURFACE WEDGE IS EVENTUALLY BROKEN BY LATER WED/ERY THU, WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR TEMPS, HV KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES GENLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL CONSIDERING LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT E-NE FLOW EARLY ON. TEMPS MODERATE BACK TOWARDS NORMAL THU/FRI AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT, WHICH ARRIVES BY NEXT WEEKEND AHEAD OF ANOTHER DEEP NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A LARGE AREA OF HI PRES...STRETCHING FM THE GRT LKS STATES ESE INTO THE NE U.S. AND NRN MID ATLC EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL SLIDE EWRD AND OFF THE CST TODAY AND TNGT. ENUF LO LVL MOIST WILL STILL PRODUCE PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNG...ESPLY AT PHF/ECG AND POSSIBLY SBY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY/MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO MON MORNG ACRS THE AREA. A TROF OF LO PRES WILL THEN AFFECT THE REGION MON AFTN INTO EARLY TUE MORNG...AND COULD BRING LWR CIGS/VSBYS AND A CHC FOR RAIN. && .MARINE... NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU MON NGT...AND SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUE. HI PRES STRETCHING FM THE GRT LKS ESE INTO THE MID ATLC REGION EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL SLIDE EWRD AND OFF THE CST TODAY AND TNGT. NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS MORNG...WILL BECOME E OR SE OR VRBL TNGT...THEN BECOME NNE ARND 10 KT OR LESS ON MON. STRONGER NE OR N WINDS THEN EXPECTED TUE AFTN THRU THU...AS LO PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC CST...AND HI PRES TRIES TO BLD S FM ERN CANADA. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE NGT INTO THU. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...LKB/MAM AVIATION...TMG MARINE...TMG

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.