Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 280557 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 157 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER IN THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 930 PM...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WANE LATE THIS EVENING WITH GREATEST CONCENTRATION OVER SUSSEX...SOUTHAMPTON AND GREENSVILLE COUNTIES ATTM. GRADUAL DECREASE IN PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN GENERALLY DRY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT-BKN STRATO-CU IS EXPECTED AFTER 06-08Z...WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN THIS EVENING. LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... PERSISTENCE GENLY CONTG ON THU...THOUGH MDL SOUNDINGS DO HINT AT A BIT HIGHER SBCAPE/MLCAPE (AGN AWAY FM THE CST) BY AFTN. WILL HAVE VRB CLDS/MCLDY TO START THE DAY...THEN AVGG OUT PSNY...WARM AGAIN W/ 30-40% POPS INLAND...20% AT THE SHORE. LCLLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE PSBL ALG W/ BRIEF GUSTY WNDS FM ANY STMS. HI TEMPS THU IN THE M/80S...W/ EXCEPTION TO 70S AT THE SHORE. WK SFC HI PRES SLIDES E ACRS NEW ENG FRI. MDLS SHOW A SLGT DROP IN DEWPTS ACRS FAR NNE COUNTIES FOR THE DAY...WHILE RMNG UP ELSW. HI PRES JUST OFFSHORE BEGINS TO SLGTLY BUILD WWD DURING THE DAY...SO FOCUS OF HIGHER POPS (30-40%) NW 1/2 OF FA (10-20% POPS ELSW). BY SAT...CDFNT FM THE NW APPROACHES...THOUGH RMNS FAR ENOUGH AWAY FOR ANY EFFECT ON THE WX HERE. WILL KEEP CONDS WARM W/ VRB CLDS/PCLDY AND 15-25% POPS INLAND...10% AT THE CST. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT IN THE M/U80S INLAND...70S AT THE CST. LO TEMPS M60S- ARND 70F. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE ERN CONUS WITH A TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE INTERMOUTAIN WEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS ERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE NRN MID ATLANTIC. 12Z GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE ECMWF WAITING UNTIL MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY. THE BEST FOCUS FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH 40-50% POPS FORECAST ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA. THE WIND PROFILE WILL REMAIN WEAKLY SHEARED SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE RATHER UNORGANIZED. POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE FORECAST TO BE 30-40% MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THEN TREND DOWNWARD TO 20-30% BY TUESDAY AND SUB-15% THROUGH MIDWEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE THROUGH THE 60S. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE THIS MORNING WITH A SFC TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE RESULT IS S-SW FLOW WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 5-10 KT. FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LOWER ERN SHORE. EARLIER PRECIP ACROSS SE VA HAS ENDED WITH ONLY FEW-SCT MID CLOUDS BETWEEN 2500 AND 4000 FT AGL. OTHERWISE...BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25K FT AGL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF FOG AT THE TAF SITES AS MIXING/CLOUD COVER/WARM TEMPS WILL INHIBIT FOG. TAF SITES ALSO MISSED OUT ON LAST EVENINGS PRECIP. MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS AGAIN BY 10-12Z CNTRL AND ERN VA...BUT THINK MOISTURE FIELDS ARE RATHER BULLISH. HAVE MAINTAINED SCT 1500-2500 FT AGL AT TAF SITES KRIC/KPHF/KECG. FOR TODAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW BEFORE WASHING OUT LATE TODAY. SFC WINDS BECOME SELY THIS AFTERNOON...AVERAGING 10 KT. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES AND W COUNTIES. SCT-BKN CU DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH DECKS GENERALLY BETWEEN 3-5K FT AGL. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FRI- SAT. BETTER CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP EXPECTED SUN-MON AS A COLD FRONT REACHES...AND THEN STALLS OVER THE REGION. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK TROUGH TRACKS WELL N OF THE REGION TONIGHT...AND THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE NRN MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT. A SSW WIND COULD BRIEFLY REACH 15-20KT ACROSS THE BAY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE A SSW WIND SHOULD AVERAGE AOB 15KT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY ALLOWING THE WIND TO BECOME SSE AOB 10KT...ALTHOUGH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN N OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WIND TO INCREASE TO 10-15KT (15-20KT OCEAN). THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...ALB LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...SAM MARINE...AJZ

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