Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 260559 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 159 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA BY THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS AND CLOUDS...WITH MAIN CHANGE TO LOWER MIN TEMPS 2-4 DEGREES INLAND. TEMPS IN MANY AREAS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S AT 00Z...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 8-10 DEGREE DROP EXPECTED MANY AREAS AWAY FROM THE BAY/OCEAN. THIS WOULD BRING MANY INLAND AREAS INTO THE UPR...AND PERHAPS MID...50S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TEMPS NEAR THE BAY/OCEAN WERE LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD MITIGATE TEMP DROP IN THOSE AREAS. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS AND NE NC WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN STRONGEST OVERNIGHT. 4 PM DISCUSSION...SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER NRN VA THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SWD...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE APPALACHIANS FROM CNTRL PA TO WRN NC BY DAYBREAK. MEANWHILE... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THAT STRETCHES FROM NEW ENGLAND TO TEXAS WILL START TO BREAK DOWN AND FLATTEN TONIGHT. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER FROM TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BREAK UP AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY AND DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...ONLY TO REDEVELOP NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST BY MORNING. ANOTHER NIGHT OF PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MOST AREAS. TEMPS ALONG THE FAR SE VA/NE NC COASTS WILL ONLY DROP TO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 OVERNIGHT AS A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT MAINTAINS NE WINDS OF 10-15 MPH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT RESIDE OVER THE AREA ON TUE... SHIFTING WWD TUE NIGHT AS TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL MIGRATES NWD WELL OFF THE SE COAST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES INLAND WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NEAR COASTAL AREAS WHERE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF A COOL AIRMASS OVER WARMER WATERS WITH NE/ONSHORE WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUE WILL BE SLIGHLY BELOW NORMAL BUT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER AS MORE LATE AUGUST SUNSHINE IS ANTICIPATED (LOW-MID 80S...UPPER 70S IMMEDIATE COAST). LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE 60S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ITS WWD SHIFT ON WED AS TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL PASSES ABOUT 350 MILES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE...A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH WED NIGHT INTO THU. ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES INDICATE VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LIFT PRESENT OVER THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE... WHICH WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP WED/WED NIGHT (ESPECIALLY SINCE THE AREA HAS BEEN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE FOR SEVERAL DAYS...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO SATURATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER). THE PASSING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON THU. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE FROP AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH BECOMES TILTED ACROSS FAR SE VA BACK INTO THE NC PIEDMONT. NW FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN CONTACT WITH THE SFC TROUGH. ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES ONCE AGAIN DEPICT A SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER WITH WEAK LIFT...THEREFORE AM ONLY EXPECTING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE ERN PIEDMONT AND AREAS ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER THU AFTN/EVENING. TEMPERATURES MODERATE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS WED/THU WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND LOWS WED/THU NIGHTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 IMMEDIATE COAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... UPR LVL TROUGH EXITS NEW ENGLAND THU NGT...LEAVING A WK SFC FNTL BNDRY ACRS (SRN/SW) PORTIONS OF THE FA. AS SFC HI PRES MOVES E THROUGH NEW ENGLAND FRI INTO FRI NGT...THAT FNTL BNDRY WILL PUSH N TRHOUGH THE FA (AS A WARM FRONT), WNDS WILL SWING FM ESE TO MNLY S THU NGT THROUGH FRI NGT. FA IN WARM SECTOR THIS WKND...W/ HI PRES OFFSHORE AND A WEAKENING CDFNT SLOLY APPROACHING FM THE WNW. INCRSG MOISTURE AHEAD OF THAT FNT WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL INCRS IN POPS BY SUN...CONTG INTO MON. HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S FRI...THEN M/U80S SAT THROUGH MON. LO TEMPS FM THE 60S TO L70S THROUGH THE PD. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SFC WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 KT OR LESS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATOCU TO MOVE ONSHORE BEFORE DAYBREAK ALONG THE SE VA COAST AND COULD SEE SCT/BKN CIGS BETWEEN 2500-3500 FT AT KORF/KPHF. ANY CIGS WILL LIKELY SCOUR OUT QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE IS SLOW TO RETREAT.
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&& .MARINE... HI PRESSURE OVR NEW ENG CONTS THE PERSISTENT NE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK. A WK CDFNT WILL SLIP S OVR THE WATERS WED NGT INTO THU. THAT FNT STALLS OVR THE WATERS BY THU AFTN/NGT WHILE HI PRES SLIDES E INTO NEW ENG. MOST SPEEDS OVR THE WATERS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA AFT EARLY TNGT. HWVR...SEAS WILL TAKE (MUCH) LONGER TO SUBSIDE ON THE OCN...A LITTLE FASTER OVR MUCH OF THE BAY THROUGH TUE INTO WED. ANOTHER INCRS IN SEAS...ESP SRN PORTION WED INTO THU W/ PSBL TROPICAL SYS OFF THE CST. FOLLOW NHC FORECASTS ON TS CRISTOBAL. AFT PD OF NNE WNDS INTO WED...MOST OF THE WATERS WILL HAVE DIRECTION TO OFFSHORE BY LT WED INTO WED NGT. ONCE WK SFC BNDRY SLIPS OVR THE WATERS THU...DIRECTION BECOMES NNE THEN E INTO FRI (W/ A PSBL SURGE IN SPEEDS TO LO END SCA...ESP NRN PORTIONS THU MRNG). && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... TIDE LEVELS PROGGED TO COME WITHIN ONE HALF FOOT OF MINOR FLOODING OVER THE CHES BAY RGN ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. THESE TIDES ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT LOWER THAN LAST SUN NIGHTS WERE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR PSBL STATEMENT DURING AS MOST HI TIDES OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN (CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF AKQ BAY WATERS) OCCUR AFT MIDNIGHT/EARLY TUE MRNG. HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK S THROUGH TUE. AFT THIS EVE N...RISK LOWERS TO MODERATE. SEE WBCCFWAKQ FOR DETAILS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098. MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-100. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650- 652-654-656. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD NEAR TERM...BMD/WRS SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...JDM MARINE...ALB/JDM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ

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