Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 181423 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA 1023 AM EDT Sat Mar 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure passes off the Carolina coast this afternoon. Meanwhile...a cold front approaches from the west and crosses the area this afternoon and evening. Low pressure develops near the coast late tonight into Sunday morning. High pressure returns late Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Weak sfc low pres will be passing off the VA-NC coast this afternoon in response toa sharpening of the mid-upper level trough tracking E into the central mountains. Moisture continuing to expand nwd through SE VA this morning. Main area of pcpn will be shifting off the coast through early afternoon. Keeping highest PoPs (50-80%) in SE VA-NE NC into midday then shift ESE early/mid this afternoon. Partial clearing in the wake of this area of moisture will be spreading through central areas of FA...maybe to the coast by mid/late afternoon. Clouds invof SE VA-NE NC likely to hold temperatures down (in the 50s)...while readings to climb into the l60s N and W of there (except holding in the 50s on the ern shore). A cold front approaches the Piedmont by late this aftn. SCT- likely SHRAS (40-60% PoP) are expected to develop ahead of the front with vertical ascent aided by cooling aloft (as upper level trough sharpens into the ern CONUS. Rather steep lapse rates from 1000-850mb and 850-700mb...will keeping a SLGT CHC thunder along and W of I-95. QPF today will generally be a few hundredths to 0.25-0.4" near the Albemarle Sound.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... The upper low reaches the coast this evening with the upper low pivoting into the CWA from the NW. Additional showers are expected to accompany the upper system, with likely PoPs E of I-95 and N of I-64, with 30-50% elsewhere. A colder thermal profile by late tonight into early Sunday morning may be conducive for a mix of ra/sn, especially N. Lows tonight range from the mid/upper 30s N/NW to the low 40s for coastal SE VA/NE NC. The upper low will be slow to exit the coast through later Sunday aftn. 30-50% PoPs linger near the coast through midday, before diminishing in the aftn. Once again, thermal profile by be cold enough to support a mix of ra/sn despite relatively warmer surface temperatures. Otherwise, cooler with a gusty (up to 40-45mph along the immediate coast, with 30-40mph farther inland) NNW wind. Mostly cloudy to overcast along the coast, with decreasing clouds W. Highs will be tricky, depending on the amount of clearing, with the current forecast showing mid/upper 40s along the coast ranging to the low/mid 50s for the I-95 corridor, to the mid/upper 50s for the Piedmont. Dry conditions prevail Sunday night into Monday as surface high pressure builds across the area. A NW wind will be slow to subside, especially through Monday morning along the coast. Mainly clear/sunny Sunday night into Monday morning, with increasing clouds Monday aftn. Lows Sunday night range from 30-35F inland, to the mid/upper 30s for SE VA/NE NC. Milder Monday with highs in the low/mid 50s along the coast to the low 60s farther inland (interior coastal plain and Piedmont). && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A cold front will drop thru the region late Mon night thru Tue, bringing a chance of showers into Tue night. High pressure and cooler temps will follow for late Tue night thru Thu night. The high will slide off the coast Fri. Highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s Tue, in the upper 40s to upper 50s Wed, in the mid 40s to lower 50s Thu, and in the mid 50s to lower 60s Fri. Lows in the 40s Mon night, in the mid 30s to lower 40s Tue night, in the mid 20s to mid 30s Wed night, and in the 30s Thu night. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A cold front over the Midwest will cross the Mid Atlantic States late today into this evening. High pressure will build over the region Sunday and Monday. Another cold front will cross the area Tuesday morning. Rain will end early this morning and then increase in the southeast...mainly at ECG and ORF after 15z. MVFR conditions with brief IFR cigs at ECG are possible. The wind will mainly be from the southwest through today at 8-12kt and gradually shift to WNW later this aftn/evening, then N later tonight with gusts up to 20-25kt possible. Thunder is possible at RIC later today. Rain tonight for eastern portions may change to light snow before ending Sunday morning. Dry and VFR conditions are expected for most of Sunday into Monday night. There will be a chance for showers with reduced aviation conditions Tuesday. Dry weather returns Wednesday. && .MARINE... Latest surface analysis centers high pressure off the Southeast coast with low pressure over the Great Lakes. A warm front was laying over the waters. The result is a south to southeast wind of 10-15 knots over the waters early this morning. Seas generally 2-3 feet and waves 1-2 feet. High pressure slides farther offshore today as low pressure drops into the region this afternoon. Winds generally become south to southwest around 10 knots. The attendant cold front pushes offshore this evening as low pressure reorganizes offshore. Low pressure deepens offshore late tonight, lifting northeast away from the local waters. As the low deepens, strong cold air advection and increasing low level winds result in a period of Gale conditions over the bay, sound, and coastal waters late tonight through Sunday morning. Expect north winds late tonight to increase to 25 to 30 knots on the bay to 30 to 35 knots over the coastal waters. Gusts 35-40 knots in the bay and 40-45 knots coastal waters. Seas build to 6-9 feet Sunday and waves 4-6 feet. Gale conditions subside in the bay Sunday afternoon as the low lifts farther northeast and gradient winds diminish. Gale conditions then subside north to south over the coastal waters Sunday afternoon. Seas subside to 4-7 feet late Sunday. SCA conditions persist through Sunday evening ahead of high pressure building over the waters late Sunday night into Monday. Seas subside below 5 feet Monday afternoon. High pressure slides off the Southeast coast Monday night as flow becomes southwest. The next front crosses the waters Tuesday morning. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...High Surf Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM EDT Sunday for NCZ102. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ635>638. Gale Warning from 7 AM to 1 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ630>632-634. Gale Warning from 7 AM to 7 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ633-656-658. Gale Warning from 4 AM to 4 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652-654. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...AJZ/LSA MARINE...TMG

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