Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 151932 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 332 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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Scattered showers and even an isolated thunderstorm are expected through the early overnight hours. A cold front crosses the area tonight. Temperatures will be slightly cooler, but still above normal for the weekend with dry conditions. A secondary cold front will push through Sunday night bringing in cooler air for the start of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... As of 145 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Scattered showers move into the region this afternoon. More widespread showers are expected this evening. - Rainfall amounts will be 0.10-0.25" on average. - Rain chances end from N to S early Saturday morning. Latest analysis shows a cold front continuing to approach the FA from the NNW, with WSW flow aloft with a cutoff low in the Desert SW. While temperatures have risen into the 70s-near 80F, dew points have been slower to recover and are still in the upper 40s-lower 50s. As a result, the precip that is entering our Piedmont counties have little to no instability to work with. Still, expect scattered showers to overspread the FA from west to east through early evening. The cold front is progged to cross the FA from 02-06z/10 PM-2 AM. Rain chances will end from NNW-SSE between 2-8 AM. Dew points will rise a few more degrees later this aftn-early this evening, which could allow for a minimal amount of sfc-based instability (100-300 J/kg) to develop. So cannot completely rule out a few rumbles of thunder (mainly after 4 PM), but no severe wx is anticipated. It is not looking like a washout with QPF late today and tonight on the order of one tenth to one quarter inch, though there may be localized higher amounts with the heavier showers. The front will be well south of the area by sunrise Saturday. CAA will not be that strong behind the front, and so while a cooler night is forecast tonight, lows will range from the mid to upper 40s north to low to mid 50s central and south. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 330 PM EDT Friday... The front will be well south of the area to begin the day on Saturday. A ridge of high pressure will move over the area before quickly shifting offshore by late in the day (allowing winds to turn back to the S). Still pleasant with highs in the upper 60s-lower 70s inland/low-mid 60s near the coast. Strong low pressure at the sfc and aloft tracks E from Ontario to ern Quebec Sun into Mon, sending a second, stronger cold front across into the area Sun night into Mon. Cloud cover will increase throughout the day ahead of the mainly dry front. However, there may be a few light showers along of just off the SE coast Sunday evening into early Monday as a weak shortwave also moves offshore to our south. Highs Sun in the upper 60s-lower 70s. Cooler air will begin to fill in behind the boundary, so low temperatures Sunday night will be in the upper 30s to the west and mid to upper 40s to the east/near the coast. Breezy/cooler on Mon with widespread 20-25 mph gusts. Forecast highs are in the mid to upper 50s.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 330 PM EDT Friday... A secondary, stronger shot of CAA arrives Monday night-Tuesday morning as the flow aloft becomes NW. Breezy (especially near the coast) Monday night with lows in the upper 20s-30s. Tuesday looks to be the coolest day of the period with continued breezy NW winds and highs in the 50-55F range. Temperatures moderate into the 60s (with continued dry wx) for Wed/Thu, as the flow aloft more zonal. Still breezy out of the WNW on Wed. Then, rain chances increase as we head into Friday-Friday night as a deepening low pressure system tracks over the area from west to east. While things can change (and likely will as it is a week away)...this looks like more of a stratiform rain event as opposed to showers/tstms. Ensemble (GEFS/EPS) mean precipitation amounts are 0.50-1.00" across the FA at this time.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 145 PM EDT Friday... VFR conditions prevail through early evening as a cold front approaches from the NNW. Scattered showers are expected to overspread the terminals between now and 21z, and will persist through the first part of the night (before ending from NNW-SSE later tonight as a cold front moves S of the terminals). The rain will be on and off and will result in short-lived VSBY restrictions at most. CIGs may drop to MVFR near the coast for a few hours around the FROPA (mainly between 02-08z), but are expected to rise to VFR late tonight (although MVFR CIGs may linger at ECG through 12z). SW winds will gust to 20-25 kt (highest at ORF/ECG) through this afternoon, diminishing to 5-10 kt in the evening before becoming N overnight behind the cold front. Outlook: Mainly dry with VFR conditions Saturday through Monday. A few passing showers are possible over SE terminals (ORF/ECG) with a second, stronger cold front crossing the region Sunday night. && .MARINE... As of 350 AM EDT Friday... Early this morning, sfc high pressure was centered well off the SE coast. Winds were mainly SW 10-15 kt with a few gusts up to 20 kt across the waters. Waves were 1-2 ft and seas were 2-3 ft. High pressure will slide farther off the SE coast this morning. Otherwise, a cold front will approach from the west today. SW winds will be mainly 10-15 kt with gusts to near 20 kt this morning through this aftn in advance of the front. Winds then become W then NW then N this evening into Sat morning, with the frontal passage. Prevailing speeds are forecast to remain a few kt below SCA criteria, although there is the potential for a brief period of ~20 kt gusts between 2-9 AM Sat on the bay. Sub-SCA conditions are then expected Sat aftn through the rest of the weekend. Widespread SCAs are likely Mon night into Tue aftn in the wake of a much stronger cold FROPA. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ630>632-634.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ERI/MAM NEAR TERM...ERI SHORT TERM...ERI/MAM LONG TERM...ERI/MAM AVIATION...ERI/MAM MARINE...ERI/TMG

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