Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 231930 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 330 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...THEN BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE ALLOWING LL FLOW TO BECOME SE AOB 10 KTS. XPCT A MSTLY CLR / COOL NIGHT. LOWS U40S-L50S...M50S CSTL AREAS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SFC HIGH BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST THRU THE PERIOD. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE KEEPS AIRMASS DRY ALONG WITH INCRG H85 / DP TMPS. XPCT MSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MSTLY CLR NIGHTS WITH A WRMG TREND. HIGHS SUN M-U70S CSTL AREAS...U70S-L80S W OF THE BAY. LOWS SUN NIGHT U50S- M60S. HIGHS MON L-M80S. LOWS MON NITE M-U60S. HIGHS TUE 85-90. COOLER AT THE BEACHES EACH DAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EACH DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHRAS/TSTMS ACROSS NW AREAS. HI TEMPS WILL AVG FM THE MID 80S TO NR 90 WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S EACH DAY...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THRU THE PERIOD AS WAVES OF LO PRES PASS MAINLY NW OF THE LOCAL AREA. POPS WILL BE 20-30% EACH AFTN/EVENG FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT SE VA/NE NC...WITH NO REASON TO GO HIGHER AT THIS POINT DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND UPR-LEVEL RIDGING.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF VA...MD AND NC THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES. WINDS CLOSE TO THE COAST AND BAY WERE GENERALLY ENE AROUND 10 KT OR LESS WITH SOME LOCAL DEVIATIONS IN WIND DIRECTION DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS. INLAND AREAS WINDS WERE GENETERALLY N TO NE AROUND 5 TO 10 KT. AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING WINDS BECOME SE AND THEN S OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. && .MARINE...
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LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLC WITH WINDS AVGG BLO 10 KT. THE HI WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENG WITH WINDS BCMG SELY OVER ALL WTRS. FAIRLY STAGNANT WX PATTERN THEN INTO ERLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH THE SFC HI REMAINING OFFSHORE AND LO PRES STAYING WELL W OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PERSISTENT SLY FLOW TO DEVELOP...AVGG 10-15 KT. CONDS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA OVER THE BAY LATE EACH AFTN/EVENG BUT FOR NOW FORECASTING MAINLY ~15 KT THERE WITH 2-3 FT WAVES. EXPECT 2-3 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS...UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES FOR NRN WTRS.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...JAO MARINE...MAS

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