Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KAKQ 181423
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA
1023 AM EDT Sat Mar 18 2017
Low pressure passes off the Carolina coast this afternoon.
Meanwhile...a cold front approaches from the west and crosses
the area this afternoon and evening. Low pressure develops near
the coast late tonight into Sunday morning. High pressure
returns late Sunday into Monday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Weak sfc low pres will be passing off the VA-NC coast this
afternoon in response toa sharpening of the mid-upper level
trough tracking E into the central mountains. Moisture
continuing to expand nwd through SE VA this morning. Main area
of pcpn will be shifting off the coast through early afternoon.
Keeping highest PoPs (50-80%) in SE VA-NE NC into midday then
shift ESE early/mid this afternoon. Partial clearing in the wake
of this area of moisture will be spreading through central
areas of FA...maybe to the coast by mid/late afternoon. Clouds
invof SE VA-NE NC likely to hold temperatures down (in the
50s)...while readings to climb into the l60s N and W of there
(except holding in the 50s on the ern shore).
A cold front approaches the Piedmont by late this aftn. SCT-
likely SHRAS (40-60% PoP) are expected to develop ahead of the
front with vertical ascent aided by cooling aloft (as upper
level trough sharpens into the ern CONUS. Rather steep lapse
rates from 1000-850mb and 850-700mb...will keeping a SLGT CHC
thunder along and W of I-95. QPF today will generally be a few
hundredths to 0.25-0.4" near the Albemarle Sound.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
The upper low reaches the coast this evening with the upper low
pivoting into the CWA from the NW. Additional showers are
expected to accompany the upper system, with likely PoPs E of
I-95 and N of I-64, with 30-50% elsewhere. A colder thermal
profile by late tonight into early Sunday morning may be
conducive for a mix of ra/sn, especially N. Lows tonight range
from the mid/upper 30s N/NW to the low 40s for coastal SE VA/NE
The upper low will be slow to exit the coast through later Sunday
aftn. 30-50% PoPs linger near the coast through midday, before
diminishing in the aftn. Once again, thermal profile by be cold
enough to support a mix of ra/sn despite relatively warmer surface
temperatures. Otherwise, cooler with a gusty (up to 40-45mph along
the immediate coast, with 30-40mph farther inland) NNW wind. Mostly
cloudy to overcast along the coast, with decreasing clouds W. Highs
will be tricky, depending on the amount of clearing, with the
current forecast showing mid/upper 40s along the coast ranging to
the low/mid 50s for the I-95 corridor, to the mid/upper 50s for the
Dry conditions prevail Sunday night into Monday as surface high
pressure builds across the area. A NW wind will be slow to subside,
especially through Monday morning along the coast. Mainly
clear/sunny Sunday night into Monday morning, with increasing clouds
Monday aftn. Lows Sunday night range from 30-35F inland, to the
mid/upper 30s for SE VA/NE NC. Milder Monday with highs in the
low/mid 50s along the coast to the low 60s farther inland (interior
coastal plain and Piedmont).
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front will drop thru the region late Mon night thru Tue,
bringing a chance of showers into Tue night. High pressure and
cooler temps will follow for late Tue night thru Thu night. The
high will slide off the coast Fri. Highs in the mid 50s to mid
60s Tue, in the upper 40s to upper 50s Wed, in the mid 40s to
lower 50s Thu, and in the mid 50s to lower 60s Fri. Lows in the
40s Mon night, in the mid 30s to lower 40s Tue night, in the
mid 20s to mid 30s Wed night, and in the 30s Thu night.
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front over the Midwest will cross the Mid Atlantic
States late today into this evening. High pressure will build
over the region Sunday and Monday. Another cold front will cross
the area Tuesday morning.
Rain will end early this morning and then increase in the
southeast...mainly at ECG and ORF after 15z. MVFR conditions
with brief IFR cigs at ECG are possible. The wind will mainly
be from the southwest through today at 8-12kt and gradually
shift to WNW later this aftn/evening, then N later tonight with
gusts up to 20-25kt possible. Thunder is possible at RIC later
Rain tonight for eastern portions may change to light snow
before ending Sunday morning. Dry and VFR conditions are
expected for most of Sunday into Monday night. There will be a
chance for showers with reduced aviation conditions Tuesday. Dry
weather returns Wednesday.
Latest surface analysis centers high pressure off the Southeast
coast with low pressure over the Great Lakes. A warm front was
laying over the waters. The result is a south to southeast wind
of 10-15 knots over the waters early this morning. Seas
generally 2-3 feet and waves 1-2 feet. High pressure slides
farther offshore today as low pressure drops into the region
this afternoon. Winds generally become south to southwest around
10 knots. The attendant cold front pushes offshore this evening
as low pressure reorganizes offshore. Low pressure deepens
offshore late tonight, lifting northeast away from the local
waters. As the low deepens, strong cold air advection and
increasing low level winds result in a period of Gale conditions
over the bay, sound, and coastal waters late tonight through
Sunday morning. Expect north winds late tonight to increase to
25 to 30 knots on the bay to 30 to 35 knots over the coastal
waters. Gusts 35-40 knots in the bay and 40-45 knots coastal
waters. Seas build to 6-9 feet Sunday and waves 4-6 feet. Gale
conditions subside in the bay Sunday afternoon as the low lifts
farther northeast and gradient winds diminish. Gale conditions
then subside north to south over the coastal waters Sunday
afternoon. Seas subside to 4-7 feet late Sunday. SCA conditions
persist through Sunday evening ahead of high pressure building
over the waters late Sunday night into Monday. Seas subside
below 5 feet Monday afternoon. High pressure slides off the
Southeast coast Monday night as flow becomes southwest. The next
front crosses the waters Tuesday morning.
NC...High Surf Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM EDT Sunday for NCZ102.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM EDT Sunday for
Gale Warning from 7 AM to 1 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ630>632-634.
Gale Warning from 7 AM to 7 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ633-656-658.
Gale Warning from 4 AM to 4 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652-654.