Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 152006 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 306 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure departs to the northeast by tonight. A weak cold front will drop across the region early Thursday, followed by high pressure returning late Thursday into Friday. A strong cold front will affect the area Saturday night into Sunday morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains centered over New England this afternoon, extending southwestward into the Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, a weak coastal trough is situated off the VA Capes and NC OBX. Low stratus is very evident on satellite this afternoon, covering much of the local area in an in-situ wedge/CAD setup. This has kept temps in check today with some locations in the Piedmont holding in the upr 40s to low 50s. Not expecting any pcpn to reach the coast this aftn/eve, despite the coastal trough/weak sfc low backing a bit more to the west before lifting north overnight. Sfc high pressure retreats NE to E of New England tonight as low pressure swings through the upper Great Lakes. A cold front approaches from the NW and drops across the region very late tonight-early Thu. That front will be moisture starved...so will carry no worse than 20-40% PoP across the far N/NE this evening, then over the Eastern Shore between 06z-12z Thu (highest PoPs from the Northern Neck to the the MD Eastern Shore). Mostly cloudy tonight with lows mainly ranging from the upr 30s to mid 40s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Warmer and becoming mostly sunny Thurs, aided by dry WNW flow behind the departing cold front. Highs Thurs in the low to mid 60s. Mostly clear and colder again Thu night as sfc high pressure builds in from the upper Midwest. Lows 30-35 inland and on the lower MD ern shore...to the low/mid 40s in SE VA-NE NC. Mostly sunny Friday as dry and cool high pressure builds over the area. Highs in the low to mid 50s. The high slides offshore Friday night allowing return flow to setup on Saturday with mild temps and moisture advection. Lows Friday night in the mid/upr 30s inland to the low/mid 40s coast. Highs Saturday in the low/mid 60s...possibly reaching the upr 60s to around 70 in the south. Clouds will gradually increase through the day.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A potent frontal system will develop west of the region Sat, then moves across the region Sat night. The best chance for rain appears to be late Sat eve (west) through early Sun. Will carry likely PoPs all areas Sat night, tapering to slight chc or low end chc PoPs (20-30%) across the far east Sun morning. The front quickly exits the region by midday Sunday. Lows drop into the low to mid 40s inland...to the low 50s coast Saturday night. Cooler conditions are expected behind the front with highs in the low to mid 50s on Sunday and upper 40s on Monday. Low temperatures will also be much colder with lows on Sunday night dropping down into the upr 20s/low 30s away from the coast. Cool and dry conditions are expected thru the middle of next week with temperatures remaining below normal.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MVFR stratus (1.5-2.5 kft) has developed at all TAF sites this afternoon and will linger thru the evening. Mostly cloudy but becoming VFR by late tonight as a cold front approaches from the W...then a mainly dry frontal passage Thu morning. WNW winds become gusty Thu (peak wind gusts 20-25 kt)...waning Thu night as VFR conditions continue. VFR conditions Fri into Sat...w/ increased potential of degraded flight conditions (and at least SCT SHRAs late Sat- early Sun w/ the next cold frontal passage. && .MARINE... High pressure dominates the weather pattern through today. SCA flags ongoing for srn Bay and ocean with N-NE winds 15-20kt. Bay zones expire at noon today. Seas are averaging 5-6ft coastal waters and should persist above 5ft through Fri before subsiding. As such, have extended SCA`s for ocean thru Thu evening (700 PM EST) or end of the 3rd period of the forecast for now. Waves on Ches Bay generally 3ft south; 2-3ft north. Stacked low pressure crosses the Upper Great Lakes Wed/Wed night and digs into srn Ontario tonight...dragging a cold front through the Ohio Valley overnight. Meanwhile, a weak shortwave trough ejects off the main upper low and is expected to cross the Mid Atlantic Region late night and may allow a sfc coastal low to spin up near the ern VA/Delmarva coasts late tonight into Thu morning before tracking NE along the New England Coast Thu aftn by the main upper level wave. Pressure gradient tightens up Thu evening due to presence of coastal low and sfc high pressure building over Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Winds generally light and onshore/ENE to N aob 10kt Wed night...becoming NW to W and increasing to roughly 10-15kt all waters Thu morning into the aftn. A cold air advection surge is anticipated Thu night into Fri morning with a period of NW winds 15-20kt Bay/Ocean/Sound allowing SCA conditions to redevelop for Bay/Sound and persist on ocean where gusts could reach 30kt north of Parramore Island. Seas 3-5ft Thu-Fri morning. Waves 2-3ft Thu...building to 3-4ft Thu night. SCA conditions subside through Fri as high pressure builds back into the region from the west. Sfc high stalls along the Southeast Coast Fri night...sliding offshore Sat. Next cold front to race through the area Sat aftn/evening. A much colder airmass and a decent pressure gradient present in its wake should provide the right set-up for strong SCA conditions Sat-Sun. Seas 4-6ft north and 3-5ft south. Waves 3-4ft. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...ALB/JDM MARINE...MAS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.