Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 230914 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 514 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure remains centered off the Southeast Coast today as a surface cold front approaches the region from the northwest. The remnants of Tropical Depression Cindy will cross the region with the cold front on Saturday. The front then stalls farther south off the Carolinas Sunday and Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Rain showers are finally moving into the region with a slug of subtropical moisture/shortwave energy that previously ejected off of TD Cindy around the time it made landfall in TX/LA. Satellite trends show the moisture losing its oomph as it gets sheared apart by slightly stronger westerly winds aloft early this morning. Lack of instability at the surface or aloft is hampering any thunder potential as well. Have therefore removed thunder and maintained light rain shower wording through this morning`s forecast. For this afternoon, daytime heating aloft should result in enough elevated instability for thunderstorms to develop. With Pwats roughly between 1.50-1.75 inches (about 150 percent of normal), moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible. Meanwhile, a weak deformation axis is expected to cross nrn VA and could provide a better focus for heavier rainfall primarily north of the Richmond Metro area into the MD Lower Eastern Shore. In addition, localized minor flooding may be possible in low lying, poor drainage, and other flood prone areas that receive heavy rainfall in a short period of time. Given the moisture-rich subtropical environment present, it will be difficult to nail down exactly which locations could be impacted by heavy rainfall today. Therefore, have highlighted the potential across the entire forecast area within the HWO. Otherwise, warm and muggy today under mostly cloudy skies. Highs generally in the upper 80s inland/mid 80s beaches. Dewpoints in the lower 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Precipitation wanes this evening with a possible break altogether overnight prior to the arrival of a cold front. The front extends from a low in SE Canada and is expected to drag the remnants of TD Cindy across the Mid Atlantic Region with it. The front will supply enough lift for thunderstorm development, and an incoming theta-e ridge axis will be a good source for instability as well. Therefore, showers and storms will arrive with the front Saturday morning with best precip chances during this timeframe. After which, models are in fair agreement with shearing the precip apart Saturday afternoon. This will greatly reduce any major threats from heavy rain (including localized minor flooding potential), however locally heavy downpours will still be possible in this very moist, subtropical environment. Meanwhile, an upper trough over the Midwest will slowly dig southward and help to slowly, but steadily, push the front eastward through the area...especially as the Bermuda High also retreats to the east. Warm and muggy yet again with highs generally in the upper 80s (lower 90s possible far SE VA/NE NC prior to arrival of cold front). Dewpoints in the lower 70s. The front hangs up a bit Saturday night along the SE VA/NE NC coast with rain chances slowly tapering off from NW to SE overnight. Should be able to maintain thunderstorms through the evening...shifting along/south of Albemarle Sound overnight. Cooler, drier air filters in from the northwest behind the front. Lows Saturday night in the low-mid 60s far NW, upper 60s inland, lower 70s SE. Dewpoints lower 60s NW to lower 70s SE. Overall, a pleasant day anticipated for Sunday. Lingering showers invof Albemarle Sound will come to and end with the rest of the area being dry. Highs in the mid 80s (lower 80s beaches), and dewpoints in the upper 50s NW to mid 60s SE. Comfortable sleeping weather Sunday night with lows in the upper 50s NW to upper 60s SE.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Cold front pushes offshore Saturday night, stalling along the coast Sunday. Height falls ahead of a deepening upper level trough over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Sunday and remnant moisture along the boundary will result in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across northeast North Carolina Sunday afternoon. Drying inland. Highs Sunday in the low to mid 80`s. A secondary front pushes into the region Sunday night and Monday. Have only kept slight chance POPs inland Monday given limited moisture. Highs in the low to mid 80`s. Potent shortwave digs into the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians Monday night into Tuesday with a stronger cold front pushing through the region Tuesday. Moisture return along the coast will result in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across eastern Virginia. Cooler Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 70`s. Dewpoints mix into the 50`s, resulting in pleasant afternoon conditions. Dry and comfortable conditions forecast again Wednesday as the trough pushes offshore and heights build over the Ohio Valley. Surface high pressure settles over the Mid-Atlantic. Highs Wednesday generally in the low 80`s. Cool Thursday morning, with lows in the upper 50`s inland to mid 60`s near the coast. High pressure slides offshore Thursday with return flow resulting in moderating temperatures. Highs in the mid 80`s. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Subtropical moisture continues to stream into the region today through Saturday. Light rain showers this morning will give way to periods of moderate to heavy rainfall this afternoon/evening. Upstream trends show mainly VFR CIGs/VIS with pockets of MVFR CIGs moving in from the southwest. Given the variance of moisture seen in satellite trends and the potential for a deformation axis to pass across northern VA, it will be difficult to pinpoint exactly which TAF sites will experience MVFR conditions and when. Also, brief periods of IFR CIGs/VIS will be possible during heavy downpours this afternoon/early evening. Expect gusty SW winds up to 25kt this afternoon. Precip tapers off through the evening and a break may even occur before the arrival of a cold front between 24/0900-1200Z. The front will slowly cross the region during Saturday and drag the remnants of TD Cindy with it. S-SW winds become breezy ahead of the front with gusts up to 25-30kt through Saturday morning. Otherwise, widespread showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing when the front arrives and continue into the evening. However, models are in fair agreement that storms will become more scattered in the afternoon. Once again, VFR-MVFR conditions should be anticipated with brief periods of IFR CIGs/VIS possible under heavier downpours. The front slows up along the far SE VA/NE NC coast Saturday night with storms becoming focused invof Albemarle Sound overnight. Showers come to an Sunday as the front shifts farther south along the Carolinas. VFR conditions Sunday into early next week.
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&& .MARINE...
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High pressure remains anchored off the Southeast coast early this morning as the remnant low that was formerly Cindy is centered over AR as of 07z. High pressure will prevail off the Southeast coast through Saturday. Meanwhile, the remnant low of Cindy tracks through the Tennessee Valley today and tonight, and then across the nrn Mid-Atlantic Saturday. Additionally, a cold front will push into the Ern Great Lakes today into tonight. This combined with the approach of the remnant low will result in a tightening pressure gradient and strengthening low-level jet tonight through midday Saturday. A SW wind will average 10-15kt early today and then increase to 15-25kt across the nrn Bay/nrn ocean zones this aftn, followed by a lull early this evening. Given this, SCAs north of New Point Comfort and Parramore Island will commence at 17z. A SW wind will then increase to 15-25kt (gusts up to 30kt possible in the ocean/Bay) across the entire marine area later this evening through the overnight hours and through midday Saturday. SCAs for the remainder of the area begin at 02z Saturday. Seas build to 5-7ft north of Parramore Island late tonight into Saturday morning, with 4-6ft out near 20nm north of Cape Charles, and primarily 3-4ft farther south with an offshore component to the wind. Waves in the Bay build to 3-4ft late tonight into Saturday morning. SCA conditions end Saturday as the wind diminishes and seas gradually subside. A cold front pushes across the coast Saturday night with a wind shift to NW. Sub SCA conditions are expected due to a lack of CAA, Another cold front pushes across the coast Monday night, with high pressure building over the region through the middle of next week.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ635>637-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ632>634-638-654. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD NEAR TERM...BMD SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...BMD MARINE...AJZ

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