Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 200800 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 300 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure moves across the southeastern states through Monday, then slides offshore Monday night and Tuesday. Low pressure will move northeast along the Mid Atlantic coast Tuesday night ahead of a cold front that pushes offshore Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Sfc hi pres will continue to build over the local area overnight. Other than patchy clouds...mainly far NNE portions...SKC w/ WNW winds continuing to diminish (lastly at the coast). Lows in the l-m30s inland...near 40F right at the coast in SE VA-NE NC. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The sfc high moves across the Carolinas Mon then off the coast Mon night and Tues. Dry through this period with a warming trend as winds shift into the SSW. Highs Mon in the low to mid 50s. Lows Mon night in the 30s to near 40 se. Increasing afternoon clouds and milder Tue. Highs 60-65. A trof develops along the sern coast late Tues with a weak area of low pressure moving ne along it Tue night and Wed. Moisture from the system lifts north with the best lift progged along the coast. Expect shwrs to spread north Tue night then shift towards the coast Wed morning as the system slides offshore. Likely pops along the bay and coast...chc pops west of the Bay Tue night. Chc pops along the coast Wed morning then drying out. Qpf generally under one quarter inch. Lows Tue night in the 40s to near 50 se. Highs Wed in the 50s except near 60 across nern NC. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure builds into the area Thursday resulting in a dry but cool holiday. Lows Wed night in the 30s to lwr 40s se. Highs Thurs in the upr 40s to lwr 50s. Another area of low pressure develops off the se coast late in the week but it appears the high to the north keeps any sgnfcnt moisture south of the local area. Dry and continued cool Fri. Highs 50-55. Next cold front approaches from the NW late Sat then crosses then area early Sun. GFS wetter than ECMWF so will go with low chc pops Sat night for now. Warmer Sat ahead of it with highs 55-60. Lows Sat night in the 40s to near 50 se. Cooler behind it Sun with highs mid 40s-lwr 50s. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions across area terminals early this morning, with VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF period and into midweek, as high pressure builds back into the region later today through this evening. Outlook: High pressure slides offshore late Monday night and Tuesday. A trough of low pressure develops along the Carolina coast Wednesday with scattered showers possible at area terminals by later Tuesday into early Wednesday. A brief period of sub-VFR conditions are possible over the terminals during this timeframe. && .MARINE...
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SCA flags cancelled for mouth of James River and Currituck Sound as high pressure builds over the Southeast States and the pressure gradient relaxes. This trend will continue through today. W-NW winds 15-20kt primarily occurring on east side of Ches Bay and ocean (gusts up to 25-30kt north of Parramore Island). There is a good chance that SCA flags for coastal waters from Chincoteague to Currituck Light will expire/be cancelled by 700 AM. Otherwise, relatively quiet conditions anticipated the rest of today through tonight as high pressure becomes centered over the Carolinas and slides offshore late tonight. W-NW winds becoming S-SW tonight with sub-SCA speeds. A Canadian low pressure system will drag a cold front into the Ohio Valley Tue...approaching the waters late Tue night. Pressure gradient tightens over nrn half of area during this time. SW winds should average 10-15kt north/5-10kt south Tue and diminish through Tue night as wind direction becomes more westerly late. Seas 2-4ft north/2-3ft south this aftn through Tue night. Waves generally 1-2ft. Meanwhile, low pressure develops off the Carolina coasts and tracks northeast...passing well east of Cape Hatteras by Wed aftn. Next chance for SCA conditions should be Wed/Wed night for all waters except York, Rappahannock, and upper James rivers. Seas 3-5ft; waves 3-4ft. High pressure rooting itself over the Ohio Valley to TN/mid-Mississippi valleys Wed night through Thu night will allow another low pressure wave to track northeast from the Southeast Coast to an offshore location farther east of Cape Hatteras during this time. Best pressure gradient appears to stay well south of the local waters, therefore sub-SCA N-NW wind speeds are anticipated. Seas slowly subside from 3-5ft Thu to 2-4ft Thu night/Fri. Waves 2-3ft subsiding to 1-2ft during same timeframe. High pressure builds into the Mid Atlantic Region for Fri with light and variable winds expected.
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&& .EQUIPMENT... The fan on the temperature sensor at the Richmond ASOS (KRIC) has likely failed, causing erroneous temperature readings. The contract observer is augmenting the official METAR observations (Hourly METAR and SPECIs). However, the 5-min high resolution data is automated directly from the sensor and is subject to reporting this erroneous data. As such, do not rely on the 5 min temperature data from KRIC until our techs can repair the sensor, likely on Monday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ656- 658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...AJB/MAM MARINE...BMD EQUIPMENT... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.