Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 280135 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 935 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATING TRIPLE PT SFC LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN OHIO...WITH RESIDUAL STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED ACRS NORTHERN VA TO THE ERN SHORE. SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IS NOW REACHING INTO FAR WESTERN VA AS WINDS ARE TURNING TO THE WEST AT HSP AND ROA. AIRMASS HAS STABILIZED ENOUGH THAT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTMS IS LOW...AND EARLIER HIGHER VALUES OF SRH ACRS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY. THUS...ONLY REAL CONCERN THAT REMAINS IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE NEXT 3-6 HRS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE (BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO ~40 MPH POSSIBLE MAINLY ACRS FAR SE VA/NE NC THROUGH 06Z). MOST AREAS HAVE RECEIVED BETWEEN 1-2" OF RAINFALL SINCE THIS MORNING...THOUGH LOCAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3.00" OF RAIN HAVE OCCURRED...AND HAVE BEEN HANDLING THESE LOCATIONS W/ AREAL FLOOD ADVISORIES. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS THROUGH 04-07Z...THEN SHOULD SEE MUCH DRIER AIR POST-FRONTAL BRINGING POPS TO AN END FROM W TO E (ALTHOUGH WILL LINGER HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH 07-10Z). LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT FROM THE MID 60S FAR W/NW TO THE LOWER 70S SE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... WILL HAVE SLGT TO LOW CHC POPS NEAR THE COAST EARLY SUN...OTW...SIGNIFICANT DRYING ON LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING SW (AND GUSTY) DURING SUN. (BECOMING) SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY W/ HI TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS...IN THE M/U80S. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE FA SUN NIGHT...THEN WEAKENS OFFSHORE MON. VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM DIVING SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MAY LEAD TO SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE ON MON. FOR NOW...KEEPING POPS BELOW 15%...AND SKY CONDITIONS AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW TEMPS SUN NGT FROM THE UPR 50S ALONG/WEST OF I-95 IN VA TO THE LOW/MID 60S AT THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS MON AGAIN IN THE MID/UPR 80S. NEXT CDFNT APPROACHES FM THE W TUE...HAVE ADDED 20-30% (HIGHEST WNW PORTION) FOR AFTN HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE M80S TO L90S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... +PNA RESULTS IN A LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SFC LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO LIFT ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY TUES NIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WEDS. TRAILING COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION TUES NIGHT- WEDS...STALLING OVER THE REGION WEDS THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. PERTURBATIONS PROGGED TO DROP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE REGION. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY THRU THE PERIOD. ABUNDANT MOISTURE FORECAST WITH PWATS 1.8 INCHES TO 2.0 INCHES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. THE RESULT WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA. RETAINED 30-40 PCT POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. POPS AOB 20 PCT LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. COMBINATION OF SHOWERS...CLOUD COVER AND H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM 14-18C WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. SLIGHT COOLER ALONG THE COAST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. MODEL CONSENSUS LIFTS THE FRONT NWD EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IN RETURN FLOW. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SAT. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS PUSHING INTO WESTERN VA. EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VIS AND CEILINGS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH(09Z RIC AND 12Z ORF/ECG). AFTER THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION...DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAIL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A CHC OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS RETURNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
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&& .MARINE... UPDATED FORECAST TO TREND WINDS DOWN SLIGHTLY...BUT SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE BAY/COASTAL WATERS/SOUND OVERNIGHT. RIVERS HAVE BEEN DROPPED FROM SCA HEADLINES TONIGHT. GRADIENT HAS RELAXED IN WAKE OF TODAYS CONVECTION AS THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE WATER. COLD FRONT FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS NOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT WINDS PROGGED TO RAMP BACK UP TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS ALL WATERS SUN. SEAS REMAIN 4-6 FT OVERNIGHT WITH 2-3 FT WAVES. PREV DISCUSSION... WARM FRONT CURRENTLY LIFTING OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS...HAIL AND WATERSPOUTS THE MAIN THREATS. WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT THRU THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS VIC OF NERN OH. LOW PRESSURE RE-ORGANIZES IN THE VIC OF THE NJ COAST TONIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. WINDS BECOME SLY TONIGHT...REMAINING 15 TO 20 KT. ADDITIONALLY...SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 4-6 FT (HIGHEST IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS). AS A RESULT...SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE ALL WATERS. THE WIND BECOMES SW BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THEN W BY SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS REMAIN AOA 20KT OVER THE BAY/OCEAN TONIGHT...WITH SEAS/WAVES 4-5FT/3-4FT. THE WIND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHES BY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUN EVENING. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...SSW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AND LOW PRESSURE LOCATES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... RAISED CSTL FLOOD ADVSRY FOR AREAS ALG CHES BAY...AT LEWISETTA VA...CAMBRIDGE AND BISHOPS HEAD MD...FOR ANOMALIES RISING TO 1-1.5 FT ABV NORMAL TNGT. INCRSG SSE WNDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING CDFNT THROUGH THIS AFTN/EVE XPCD TO BUILD UP WATER INVOF CNTRL CHES BAY. CURRENT ANOMALIES AVGG ABT 1 FT ABV NRML...AND XPCD TO INCRS INTO TNGT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ021>023. NC...NONE. VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ077. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634-650- 652-654. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...DAP/JEF MARINE...AJZ/SAM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ

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