Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 201112 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 712 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary will remain situated over southern Virginia today before lifting north across the area tonight. A stronger cold front crosses the region late Sunday into Sunday night, with high pressure building in for much of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Current wv imagery and upper air analysis indicates a trough digging into the Nrn Plains, with an upper ridge over the Ern Seaboard. The surface pressure pattern is rather nebulous locally, with a diffuse boundary situated over Srn VA. Conditions are mostly cloudy across the srn half of the area early this morning, with a few light showers in vicinity of the VA/NC border, and partly cloudy to mostly clear across the n, with some patchy fog over the Piedmont. Temperatures are generally in the low 70s. The boundary will remain nearly stationary today. This could be a focal point for aftn showers/tstms from interior s-central VA to ne NC, but overall PoPs are low ranging from 20-30%. Drier from central VA to the Ern Shore, but a very isolated sea-breeze tstm is possible over the MD Ern Shore. Variable cloud cover and warm and humid with highs in the upper 80s to around 90. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... The remnant/weak boundary will lift nwd through the area tonight as a trough digs into the Great Lakes and a stronger cold front pushes into the Ohio Valley. PoPs will be low (aob 20%) tonight into Sunday morning as the flow becomes more ssw. The more significant cold front will approach from the nw Sunday aftn as the upper trough continues to sharpen across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. PoPs of 40-60% have been maintained across the area for mid- late aftn Sunday (highest across the n). Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy with lows Saturday night in the 70s, followed by highs Sunday in the upper 80s to low 90s. The cold front will push off the coast Sunday night, with any lingering showers/tstms quickly pushing offshore in the evening. Surface high pressure builds into the region late Sunday night into Monday bringing drier and much more comfortable weather. Lows Sunday night range from the mid 60s nw to the low/mid 70s se. Mostly sunny Monday with highs in the low/mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure/fair weather prevails over the local area Tuesday and Wednesday. 850 temps begin to moderate, warming to 14 to 16C. Highs both days generally in the mid 80`s (cooler along the coast). Coolest night expected Tuesday night as temperatures inland are forecast to drop into the 50`s in rural areas. Low to mid 60`s near the coast. Upper/surface high pressure locates over the western Atlantic Thursday as the next northern stream trough digs over the upper Midwest and the Great Lakes region. An associated cold front pushes into the Ohio Valley Thursday/Thursday night. Dry for the local area again Thursday with highs warming back into the mid to upper 80`s. The front drops into the Mid Atlantic region Friday, but not before temperatures warm back into the upper 80`s to low 90`s. Will carry only a slight chance POP for the far northwest Piedmont. && .AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A weak diffuse frontal boundary remains over the region early this morning. Any fog/stratus should dissipate/lift by 13z. Showers/tstms are possible (20-30%) this afternoon, mainly over interior s-central VA/ne NC. A stronger cold front pushes through the area Sunday bringing a better chc of afternoon/early evening showers/tstms. Much drier air arrives behind the cold front Monday and continues through Wednesday as high pressure builds over the region.
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&& .MARINE... Light westerly winds observed over the marine area early this morning as a weak/diffuse frontal boundary remains over the region. By mid-morning...flow becomes onshore (east to southeast) and increases to around 10 knots. Waves/seas generally 1-2 feet. Flow becomes southerly 10-15 knots tonight and Sunday as a cold front approaches from the west. The front pushes across the waters Sunday night. Combination of low level cold air advection and warm waters will likely result in a period of SCA conditions late Sunday night. Northwest winds are forecast to become 15 to 20 knots into early Monday morning. Waves may briefly build to 3-4 feet in the lower Bay with seas as high as 5 feet in the northern waters. SCA conditions will be short lived as northerly winds diminish to 10-15 knots Monday. Waves 2-3 feet and seas 3-4 feet. High pressure builds over the region Monday night, remaining over the waters through late in the week. Flow becomes onshore, but light at or below 10 knots. The next front approaches the region Friday. && .EQUIPMENT... Due to an azimuth motor failure, the KAKQ 88D will be out of service through the weekend. The replacement part will arrive on Monday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...SAM EQUIPMENT...AKQ

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