Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 080822 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 322 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary remains nearly stationary off the Mid Atlantic coast through Saturday. A series of low pressure systems will track northeast along this boundary through Saturday. Cold high pressure builds into the area Saturday night into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A messy forecast starting today. A frontal boundary remains aligned off the mid-Atlantic/SE CONUS coasts today. A couple of weak disturbances aloft in strong SW flow will ride NE invof the boundary...slowly pushing moisture NNW into/across the FA (initially from NE NC early this morning). Some light pcpn reaches srn-central VA by late morning/early afternoon...then points NNW of there by eve. Thermal profiles suggest mainly -RA (RA/occasional +RA possible invof far SE VA-NE NC by later today)...though would not rule out a touch of -SN or -IP interior srn VA this morning...and again later today in corridor from central VA to lower SE MD. Highs mainly 40-45F.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Attention turns to the southern stream system currently over the Four Corners region - for Friday Night into Saturday. The operational models have come into better agreement with a slightly more amplified system, allowing more precipitation to be thrown back to the northwest especially during the day on Saturday when the models suggest a weak deformation axis band of precipitation developing on the NW side of the low. However, this better amplification will also cause more warm air to be thrown further inland. With really no cold wedge in place, it will be tough to keep any low level cold air in place and as such with only a marginal thermal profile to support snow, we will be relying on any potential heavier snowfall rates to support any snow accumulations across the interior. Still, as of right now, there seems to be an improved chance for some measurable snow across much of central VA including the RIC metro...extending N-NE into the MD eastern shore. As such, will go with accumulations around an inch late Friday night into Saturday morning for central VA, and around 2 inches for interior MD eastern shore including SBY and Cambridge (where there actually is potential for cold air to get locked into place). Most likely, there will be a narrow band of locally higher snowfall (perhaps 2 inches) somewhere across central VA. However, given the complexity of the thermal profiles and where the best precipitation will set up, it is nearly impossible to pinpoint at this time. Otherwise, precipitation diminishes from west to east late Saturday into Saturday Night. Cold but dry Sunday with temperatures only topping out in the upper 30s. Lows Saturday night in the mid-upper 20s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The long term period will be characterized by below normal temperatures as a long wave trough sets up over the eastern CONUS. A vigorous shortwave is shown to rotate through the mean trough and pivot across the local area late Tuesday into Wednesday. This feature will reinforce the already chilly air in place and probably bring our coldest readings so far this season. In addition, widely scattered snow showers may occur as the upper trough pivots through Tuesday night/Wednesday. Will introduce slight chc pops at this time. Highs Mon/Tues from the mid 40s to around 50. Highs Wed in the 30s to around 40. Highs next Thurs mainly in the 40s. Low temps Sunday night in the 20s, to near 30 coast. Lows Mon night from the upr 20s Piedmont to the mid 30s coast. Lows Tues/Wed nights from around 20 Piedmont to nr 30 coast. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Frontal boundary remains (well) S and E of the local area through the 06Z TAF forecast period. BKN-OVC VFR CIGS (mainly aoa 8-10kft) continuing attm. Area of -RA over NE NC will be slowly spreading NNW today...w/ CIGS/VSBYS lowering gradually to MVFR. RA and IFR/MVFR CIGS expected tonight into Sat at PHF/ORF/ECG...while mixed RA/SN or perhaps periods of all SN expected at RIC/SBY. Pcpn...possibly as a mix of RA/SN even to the coast...is expected to move offshore between 18Z-22Z Sat. VFR conditions are expected after late Sat afternoon/eve and continue into early next week. && .MARINE... Light winds/sub-SCA conditions prevail this aftn with seas 2-4 ft and waves of 1-2 ft. Low pressure progged to develop along a stalled frontal boundary pushing N from Florida late tonight/Fri. Expect winds to shift to N by Fri morning, but with a weak pressure gradient, conditions winds will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through Friday. As the sfc low gradually moves NNE off the coast Fri night and intensifies on Sat, expect SCA conditions to develop over the southern VA and NC coastal waters (seas to 5-6 ft) and possibly the lower Bay and Currituck Sound. Strong cold front passes through Sat night and SCA conditions look to prevail for all zones Sunday (potential for a few brief gusts to Gale force Sun morning). Elevated westerly flow of 15-20 kt to continue Mon-Tue. && .CLIMATE... Avg 1st Data with Measurable Snowfall at Sites (Data based on 1981-2010): * Richmond: Dec 25th * Norfolk: Jan 12th * Salisbury: Dec 25th * Wallops: Dec 26th * Louisa: Dec 18th * Farmville: Dec 24th && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ630-631-650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EST Saturday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MRD NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM SHORT TERM...ALB/MRD LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...AJB MARINE...LKB CLIMATE...

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