Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 190347 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1047 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK...DRY FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE AREA LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS HAS SPREAD OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN TANDEM WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LESSENING WINDS WILL RESULT IN THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. EXISTING RECORD LOW VALUES WILL BE CHALLENGED AT EACH OF OUR CLIMATE SITES. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 DEGS INLAND...WITH MID-UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER BANKS PORTION OF CURRITUCK COUNTY NC...THE LONE HOLD OUT OF THE LOCAL FALL FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AN UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS WEDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NEWD INTO ERN CANADA. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RECOVER AS A RESULT. THE SFC HIGH WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT BUILDS EWD OVER THE SE STATES...EXTENDING JUST OFF THE SRN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. RESULTANT WEAK SWLY FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA...IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS... WILL MODERATE TEMPS SLIGHTLY WEDS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...H85 TEMPS REMAIN -1 TO -2 STD DEV AND WITH VERY LITTLE MIXING...EXPECT TEMPS TO ONLY WARM INTO THE LOW 40S. (-2 STD DEV). SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN SUNNY SKIES. THE NEXT POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED CLIPPER FRONT DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WEDS. THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION WEDS NIGHT-THURS MORNING. MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NRN LOCAL AREA WEDS NIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. WARMER WEDS NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 20S...STILL 10 TO 15 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. PUSH OF COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS FRONTS...WITH THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR REMAINING NORTH OF THE REGION. FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THURS WITH MODEST CAA EXPECTED LATE THURS INTO THURS NIGHT. WARMER THURS AS SW WINDS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE CLIPPER FRONT...RESULTING IN BETTER MIXING. HOWEVER...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S STILL RANGE AROUND 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL OR -1 STD DEV. UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL PUSH INTO THE CNTRL CONUS FRI AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS EJECTS OFF THE NE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRI. MODEST CAA KNOCKS HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID- UPPER 40S FRI UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
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MD...NONE. NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ102. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633- 635>638-650-652-654-656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632- 634.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...JDM/SAM SHORT TERM...SAM LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...LSA MARINE...MPR CLIMATE...AKQ

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