Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 190700 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA 300 AM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front crosses the local area through this evening. Low pressure strengthens near the coast late tonight into Sunday morning...then slowly moves well off the coast Sunday afternoon. High pressure returns late Sunday into Monday. The next cold front settles into the area Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Current analysis indicating strong upper level low pressure centered over western NY/PA with weak sfc low pressure situated over central NC/VA. Steep lapse rates and cooling aloft allowed for showers and tstms over the past few hrs, mainly along and W of the I-95 corridor. Nothing severe, but with freezing levels of 6-7 k ft, it didn`t take much to get some reports of small hail, and winds gusted to 30-35 mph across some observation sites. Storms have genly diminished to just showers over the past hr while pushing east into the cooler/more stable marine layer. Also, areas farther west have been rain cooled so that most locations are now seeing temperatures in the 40s to low 50s. Not anticipating any additional tstms, but PoPs will remain high chc to likely for the next several hrs over much of the CWA. After midnight...the upper low to the N tracks SE and moves into the CWA from 06-12Z. Will shift highest PoPs (70%) to mainly the northern portions of the FA initially, gradually shifting SSE through daybreak Sunday to overspread eastern 2/3 of the CWA. Colder air will be slowly spreading into the FA by late at night...potentially leading to mixed RASH/SNSH after around 09Z mainly across the northern Neck/MD eastern shore. Lows from the upper 30s N and W to the lower 40s SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... The upper low will be slow to exit the coast through later Sun aftn. Holding onto 40-70% PoPs from I 95 on E to coast through midday...before diminishing NW-SE in the aftn. Once again...thermal profile may be cold enough to support a mix of ra/sn despite relatively warmer surface temperatures. Otherwise...cooler with a gusty (up to 35-45mph along the immediate coast, with 25-40mph farther inland) NNW wind. Mostly cloudy to overcast along the coast...w/ decreasing clouds W. Highs will be tricky...dependent on the timing/amount of clearing...ranging from the m-u40s along the coast to the l50s in the I 95 corridor...to the m-u50s over the Piedmont. Dry conditions prevail Sun night into Mon as sfc hi pres builds across the local area. A NW wind will be slow to subside... esp through Mon morning along the coast. Mainly clear Sun night into Mon morning...then increasing clouds Mon aftn (esp nrn portions of the FA). Lows Sun night from 30-35F inland...to the m-u30s for SE VA/NE NC. Milder Mon with highs in the l-m50s along the coast to the l60s farther inland (Piedmont). Sfc hi pres dissipates Mon night as clouds continue to spread into the region from the W. Carrying a low prob for SHRAS far N. Lows mainly 40-45F. A cold front drops SE into the area Tue...bring mainly cloudy conditions. As the front settles into srn VA in the afternoon...increased PoPs (to 20-40%) by late in the day. Highs from the m-u50s on the ern shore to around 60F near the Ches Bay...and 65-70F farther inland across central/srn VA-interior NE NC. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Showers expected Tue night into Wed morning, as low pressure along the frontal boundary moves acrs the Carolinas and off the coast. Dry wx and cool temps will follow for Wed aftn into Thu night, as high pressure builds SE fm the Great Lakes to off the nrn Mid Atlc coast. Increasingly warmer temps then expected Fri and Sat, but also a gradual increase in low level moisture and pcpn chcs. Highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s Wed, in the mid 40s to lower 50s Thu, in the upper 50s to lower 60s Fri, and in the 60s to near 70 Sat. Lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s Tue night, in the mid 20s to lower 30s Wed night, in the 30s Thu night, and in the mid 40s to near 50 Fri night. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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An upper low will pivot swd along the Mid-Atlantic coast through 18z. A band of rain, reduced vsby, and low cigs will accompany the upper system. Rain will gradually overspread the region through 10z, with cigs forecast to drop to IFR at all sites. Rain gradually ends from NNW-SSE between 14-18z. A NNE wind will increase to 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt, and locally 30-35kt at the coast. Cigs begin to lift and scatter by aftn as the low moves offshore and high pressure builds in from the NW. High pressure prevails Sunday night and gradually slides offshore Monday. A weakening cold front pushes through the area Monday night bringing a 20-30% chc of showers, mainly from RIC- SBY. This boundary stalls across the region Tuesday, with low pressure tracking along the front Tuesday night with rain and degraded flight conditions likely. High pressure builds in from the north Wednesday and settles over the area Thursday.
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&& .MARINE... Late this aftn, low pressure was cntrd over SW VA with a cold front extending SW thru wrn NC and into nrn GA. A warm front was laying off the MD coast. Winds were ENE over MD coastal waters at 5 to 10 kt, and SE thru SW at 5 to 10 kt elsewhere. Seas were 2-3 feet and waves 1-2 feet. The low will move ewrd acrs srn portions of the area this evening into tonight, with another low forming along the warm front off the Delmarva coast and taking over as the main low. All of this will pull a cold front acrs the waters. The main low will deepen off the New England coast late tonight into Sun aftn. As the low deepens, strong cold air advection and increasing low level winds result in a period of Gale conditions over the bay, sound, and coastal waters very late tonight through Sun aftn. Expect north winds late tonight to increase to 25 to 30 knots on the bay to 30 to 35 knots over the coastal waters. Gusts 35-40 knots in the bay and 40-45 knots coastal waters. Seas build to 6-9 feet Sun and waves 4-6 feet. Gale conditions subside in the bay Sun aftn, as the low lifts farther northeast and gradient winds diminish. Gale conditions then subside north to south over the coastal waters Sun aftn. Seas subside to 4-7 feet late Sun. SCA conditions persist through Sun evening ahead of high pressure building over the waters late Sun night into Mon. Seas subside below 5 feet by Mon evening. High pressure slides off the Southeast coast Mon night, as flow becomes southwest. The next front crosses the waters on Tue. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...High Surf Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ102. VA...High Surf Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ098. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ635>638. Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634- 650-652-654. Gale Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633-656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...ALB LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...TMG

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