Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 272005 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 405 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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MID-AFTERNOON UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FEATURES DAMPENING/ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAS TAKEN ON A NEGATIVE TILT, AND EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BACK INTO THE MID-MISS VALLEY. AT THE SFC, LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES A SFC COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH IN BACKDOOR FASHION ACROSS THE WATERS/COASTAL PLAIN LATE THIS AFTN...ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM ECG TO PTB TO JUST NORTH OF FVX AT 20Z. 30+ DEG F SPREAD IN TEMPS THIS AFTN...WITH READINGS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S TO LOW 60S OVER THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE/NRN NECK...WITH TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS EAST- CENTRAL VA. MEANWHILE, PRE- FRONTAL SW FLOW IS ALLOWING TEMPS BACK IN THE WARM SECTOR TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. WHILE SHOWERS HAVE TAPERED OFF IN THE COOL SECTOR, WE`RE NOTING SOME SHOWERS BEGINNING TO FIRE JUST WEST OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHING EAST FROM E KY/W VA COURTESY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW UPSTREAM. HAVE REORGANIZED POP A BIT TO DEPICT AN INCREASE IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY ON THIS EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. MSAS/SPC ANALYSIS SHOWING DEEP LAYER (0-6KM) BULK SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 30-40KT NOW THRU THE EARLY AFTN, AS DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 750-1000 J/KG, CENTERED ACROSS THE SAME SRN THIRD OF THE AREA. 12Z SOUNDINGS POINT TOWARD SOME DRY AIR PRESENT IN LLVLS, WITH A DISCERNIBLE INVERTED-V SIGNATURE TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SPC DOES CONTINUE MARGINAL RISK OVER THESE SRN SECTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH THE ABOVE PARAMETERS PORTENDING TO A THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS. HAVE LIKELY POP ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING, TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, WILL KEEP POP NO LOWER THAN 30-40% OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE LOOKING TO CROSS INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. LOOK FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS FROM UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S EASTERN SHORE/NORTHERN NECK TO LOWER 60S FAR SOUTH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED INVOF VA/NC BORDER THROUGH THU NIGHT. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. 12Z/27 MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH NEXT DISTURBANCE CUTTING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST, ALBEIT A BIT LATER INTO THU MORNING. DESPITE PWATS ~1.25" ACROSS THE NORTH, PRESENCE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE NUDGING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LIMITED...AND HAVE ACCORDINGLY DROPPED POPS BACK INTO CHC RANGE THU/THU NIGHT. APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WITH DIURNAL DESTABILIZATON IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SRN VA/NE NC ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PRIMARY THREATS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HIGHS THU IN THE 60S NE TO LOWER 70S SW. THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN INVOF SRN VA/NE NC THU NIGHT INTO FRI. PRECIPITATION STARTS TO WANE THU NIGHT AS OVERALL PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE WITH LAST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE COAST WITH A FINAL WAVE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NW. THIS SECOND WAVE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FRI AFTN DURING PEAK HEATING. AFTER WHICH...DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THERE IS VERY LIMITED FORCING/INSTABILITY PRESENT BY FRI AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED DURING FRI AFTN. HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING SHOULD BE DIFFICULT WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS PULLING THE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER INLAND AND KEEPING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE GENERALLY SATURATED. LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE 50S INTERIOR VA AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE...LOWER 60S NE NC. HIGHS FRI WILL BE SIMILAR TO THU WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S NE TO LOWER 70S SW. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S (UPPER 40S POSSIBLE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE/FAR NRN VA COUNTIES). && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED OVER THE WRN CONUS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD (BEGINNING FRIDAY)...WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROGGED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THRU THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI AS THE ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STALLS OVER THE VICINITY OF WRN PA. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE PA LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS THE WAVY FRONT WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA BECOMES DIFFUSE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES FROM THE NORTH...RESULTING IN COOL/STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NE. EXPECT LINGERING CLOUD COVER OVER THE LOCAL AREA...BUT DUE TO DOWNSLOPING EXPECT THE PIEDMONT INTO CENTRAL VA TO REMAIN DRY. BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE EXPECTED OVER THE NRN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE. HAVE TRIMMED BACK CHANCE POPS TO THOSE AREAS FRI AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 60S NE TO THE MID/UPPER 70S SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS MID/UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOW/MID 50S SOUTH UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED OVER THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY...WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING CONDITIONS RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY. SKY AVERAGES PARTLY CLOUDY-MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S (50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST). THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT PRECIP TO OVERSPREAD THE PIEDMONT LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING AND POINTS EWD THRU THE DAY SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY SUN AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PROVIDES FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER AN INCREASINGLY MOIST (BUT STABLE) AIR MASS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AT ODDS WITH PUSHING THE FRONT THRU THE REGION SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. HAVE LINGERED CHANCE POPS MONDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT IN TROUGHING OVER THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS AT ODDS OVER HOW THE TROUGH DEVELOPS. POPS RANGE FROM SILENT TO SLIGHT CHANCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. HIGHS SUN TO WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO CENTRAL VA THIS MORNING. REGIONAL OBS ON THE COOL-SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY INDICATE STRATUS WITH CIGS 500-800FT. SBY CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A 500FT CEILING AND THIS IS FORECAST TO LINGER TO ~16Z. ELSEWHERE...THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO ERODE AND LIFT LATER THIS MORNING. AS FOR PCPN...AN AREA OF -SHRA WILL PASS ACROSS THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. OTHERWISE...THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH EARLY TO MID-AFTN. THE FRONT WILL DROP INTO NE NC LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGING -SHRA TO THE REGION. MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN VICINITY OF THE VA/NC BORDER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SINKING SWD FRIDAY. THE CHC FOR -SHRA WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE W SUNDAY. && .MARINE... BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THIS AFTN, PRODUCING A WIND SHIFT TO NE. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING, EVENTUALLY SETTLING IN VICINITY OF THE VA/NC BORDER EARLY TONIGHT. HAVE DROPPED SCA ACROSS THE NRN COASTAL WATERS, WITH BUOY 09 DROPPING BELOW 5 FT, AND WITH NWPS/WAVEWATCH BOTH DEPICTING SEAS SUBSIDING TO ~4FT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. E-NE WIND 10-15KT CONTINUES TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY, WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG/JUST S OF THE VA/NC BORDER THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED TO PERSIST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN E-NE WIND ALONG WITH 3-4FT SEAS AND 2-3FT WAVE IN THE BAY. SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN IN INCREASING NE FLOW, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA NEEDED ACROSS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AS EARLY AS LATE THU NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS FRIDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. N TO NE WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY. AOB 15 KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT. WAVES 2 TO 3. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT CONTINUE SAT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS. SEAS BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT LATE FRI NIGHT...WITH 3 TO 4 FT WAVES IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 5 FT LATE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THRU THE WEEKEND...WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 3 TO 4 FT AND 4 TO 5 FT AT TIMES. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...BMD/MAM LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...AJZ/DAP MARINE...MAM/SAM

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