Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 211441 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1041 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS IN PLACE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MID MORNING UPDATE...SFC LOW OFF THE NE NC COAST AT 1430Z...AND MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY NEWD. PRECIP QUICKLY DIMINSHING AND MOVING OFFSHORE AS LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPR SHORT WAVE BEGIN MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. INLAND...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY...AND HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES THERE. ALONG THE COAST...CLOUDS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO CLEAR...AND HAVE THUS DROPPED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS NE NC...EASTERN VA AND OUR DELMARVA CWA. REST OF FORECAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM EARLY MORNING FORECAST. EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION...LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1006 MB SFC LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD OFF THE NC COAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO THE PIEDMONT OF VA/NC. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS EASTERN NC AND FAR SERN VA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL COVERAGE/INTENSITY HAS BEGUN TO WANE IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NE OFF THE NC OBX THRU THE MORNING. AS IT DOES SO...EXPECTING PCPN TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR FAR SE ZONES BUT IN AN OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND. BY 18Z...HIGH RES MODELS HAVE THE SFC LOW OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA...WITH ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN LIMITED TO IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS AND OFFSHORE. WILL SLOWLY LOWER POPS THROUGH MIDDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TODAY...BEFORE CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/I-95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...PROBABLY DRY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS THIS EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS TUNING TO THE W-SW THIS AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND +17C WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 80S MOST PLACES. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPR 50S NW TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE SE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND COMFORTABLE MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES. DID MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) ACROSS THE FAR SE IN THE MORNING AS THE FRONT CLEARS. THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID 50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES). && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR MOST OF THE AREA. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOW PRESSURE IS PRESENTLY (AS OF 06Z) TRACKING NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK THROUGH THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. RA OVER ERN NC IS STRUGGLING TO MOVE N OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE N. ECG COULD EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL -RA THROUGH 12Z...BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON VSBY. STRATUS AT SBY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z...AND IFR AT ORF SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. ELSEWHERE...STRATUS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT RIC/PHF...SO TEMPO IFR HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT BOTH TERMINALS BEGINNING 08-09Z AND ENDING 12Z. THE LOW SHOULD QUICKLY PULLS OFF TO THE NE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH THE WIND SHIFTING FROM NE TO NW ALONG WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NW. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER TODAY AND CROSSES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO SW LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA/TSRA MAINLY ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM RIC TO SBY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS IT TRACKS WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A NNE WIND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE BAY SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 20-25KT WIND IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT TO SW LATE AND INCREASE TO 10-15KT OVER THE BAY/SOUND RIVERS AND 15-20KT OVER THE OCEAN THIS EVENING. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 5-7FT THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 4-5FT TONIGHT. SCAS FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND SOUND WILL RUN THROUGH 17Z...AND THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN WILL RUN THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT AS SEAS SHOULD BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20NM. THE WIND SHIFTS TO NW LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE INITIAL CAA SURGE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA. A STRONGER NORTHERLY SURGE IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...AND THIS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER BAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW...WHICH WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES AND LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE/BISHOPS HEAD SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA. THESE VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098. MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-100. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633- 634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654- 656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM/WRS SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...AJZ/TMG MARINE...AJZ/TMG TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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