Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 220900 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 400 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...THEN SLIDES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SFC HI PRES (~1034MB) CENTERED OVR THE FA ATTM...AND WILL RMN SO THROUGH THE MRNG HRS. A (VERY) COLD START UNDER SKC AND NR CALM WNDS W/ MOST LO TEMPS FM THE UPR TEENS TO THE M20S. THE HI IS SLO TO WEAKEN/DRIFT OFF THE CST LATER TDA. LGT/VRB WNDS BECOME SSW RESULTING IN MODERATION. SKY RMNS MNLY SKC THROUGH THIS AFTN. HI TEMPS FM THE U40S N TO L50S FAR SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THICKEN FM THE SW LATE TNGT THROUGH MIDDAY SUN...AS GULF CST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTS NE THROUGH THE SE CONUS. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY SAT NGT WITH LOWS RANGING THRU THE 30S. THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION AND ASSOCIATED SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NE AND ACRS THE MDATLC RGN SUN SUN NGT. HAVE POPS FOR RAIN INCREASING TO 30-50% SW 1/2 OF FA DURING SUN AFTN...THEN TO 80-90% EVERYWHERE BETWEEN 00Z-06Z MON...AND FM ABT 70% NE TO 40% SW BETWEEN 06Z-12Z MON. HI TEMPS SUN RANGING FM THE L/M50S NW TO THE L60S SE. LOWS SUN NGT RANGING THRU THE 50S...W/ READINGS LIKELY TO RISE AFT MDNGT. QPF AVGG 1/2 TO 1 INCH. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION AT 12Z MON...WITH A CDFNT PUSHING TWD/INTO OUR EXTRM WRN CNTIES BY 00Z TUE. AFTER LWR CLOUDS AND PSBL FOG MON MRNG...SW WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE CDFNT BECOME GUSTY...AND WILL HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 70S UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. FOR NOW...POPS AOB 14% ON MON. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST BY 12Z TUE. BNDRY THEN STALLS OVR THE GULF STREAM TUE & WED IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF S/W`S PROGGED TO DVLP THEN MOVE NE ALONG IT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRS (OF PACIFIC ORIGIN) OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDS S&E THRU THE MID WEEK PRD. UPR LVL LOW AND TRAILING CDFRNT PROGGED TO DIVE SE FROM THE GT LAKES THU WITH HIGH PRS BUILDING INTO THE ARA FRI. GRIDS WILL INDICATE SLGHT CHC SHWRS WITH FROPA MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER AS CAA SET IN BEHIND THE FRNT. LOWS M-U40S NWRN HALF 50-55 SERN HALF. TUE THRU WED FCST DEPENDS ON HOW FAR N&W MSTR GETS FROM THE DVLPNG LOW OFF THE SERN COAST. GFS HAS A TRACK A BIT FRTHR EAST KEEPING THE PCPN CONFINED TO SERN CSTL AREAS BY LATE TUE...AND GNRLY E OF I95 WED. ECMWF SLOWER WITH A DRY TUE...PCPN MOVG ACROSS SERN CSTL AREAS TUE NIGHT THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA WED BEFORE PULLING OUT TO SEAS WED NIGHT. TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH THE COASTAL LOW TUE & WED...BUT THNK IT IS OVERDONE WRT THE DEEPENING OF THE LOW OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST TURKEY DAY. WILL INDICATE 20-30 POP ACROSS SERN CSTL AREAS TUE. DRY ELSEWHERE. HIGHS M50S-L60S. A GENERAL RAIN OVRSPRDS THE FA SE-NW TUES NIGHT AND WED...THEN ENDS WED EVE AS THE LOW PULLS FRTHR OFFSHORE. PCPN ALL LIQUID WITH THIS EVENT. LOWS TUE NIGHT M30S-M40S. HIGHS WED M40S-L50S. PCPN ENDS WED EVE BEFORE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. LOWS AFTER THE RAIN ENDS FALL INTO THE U20S-L30S W OF THE BAY...M-U30S SERN CSTL AREAS. CLIPPER TYPE S/W DIVES SE THU. ENUF MSTR SEEN WITH THIS FTR FOR AT LEAST SLGHT CHC DIURNAL SHWRS (PSBLY MIXED WITH IP???) THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGHS 45-50. DRYING OUT THURS NIGHT AND FRI. LOWS U20S-M30S XCPT 35-40 SERN CSTL AREAS. HIGHS FRI M-U40S. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH MOSTLY CLR SKY AND LIGHT WIND. LOW DEWPTS MEAN NO FOG IS EXPECTED. WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT OUT OF THE N-E AND WILL GRADUALLY SHFT TO SW BY THIS AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TDA...MOVING WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDS LATE SUN INTO MON MRNG. && .MARINE... THE SCA OVR SRN CSTL WTRS HAS EXPIRED AS SEAS DROPPED BLO 5 FT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNG...EXPECT 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS WITH LGT WINDS AS STRONG SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVR THE WTRS. THE HI SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS AFTN...WITH WINDS BCMG SLY AT 10-15 KT. NEXT LO PRES SYSTM PUSHES NE TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES SUN/SUN NGT...WITH S/SE FLOW RAMPING UP OVR THE LOCAL WTRS AS THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUN NGT INTO MON IN RESPONSE TO THIS...AND MAY CONTINUE UNTIL MON NGT WHEN THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRNT CROSSES THE AREA. GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE OVR THE OCEAN AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING 4TH PERIOD WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES OVR THE BAY WILL REACH 3-4 FT WITH SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS UP TO 6-8 FT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...MAS MARINE...MAS

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