Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 042048 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 348 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT... THEN CONTINUES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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COLD FRONT CAME THRU RATHER ABRUPTLY TODAY AS A QUICK WIND SHIFT TO THE NNE RESULTED IN TMPS DROPPING SOME 10-15 DEGREES IN JUST ONE HR. SAID FRNT NOW JUST OFFSHORE WITH LOW PRS PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG IT TONIGHT. EVENING FCST RATHER EASY AS RAIN (OF VARYING INTENSITY) WILL CONT TO SPREAD NE MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. POPS WILL VARY FROM CHC ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO CATEGORICAL ALONG THE COAST. QPF BTWN ONE HALF TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE SERN PART OF THE FA WITH TMPS FALLING INTO THE U30S-L40S. THE CHALLENGING PART OF THE FORECAST COMES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS CAA ALONG WITH FALLING THICKNESSES SPRT A PCPN TYPE ISSUE AFTER 06Z MAINLY ACROSS THE NERN HALF OF THE FA. DECIDED TO GO WITH A WWA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING FOR THE VA NRN NECK (1-2 INCHES) AND LWR MD ERN SHORE (1-3 INCHES) BASED ON LTST MODEL GUID. WENT WITH A BUFFER ZONE FROM JUST NE OF RIC TO NR WILLIAMSBURG FOR LESS THAN ONE INCH OF SLUSHY ACCUMULATION SO NO ADVSRY NEEDED THERE. OTW...LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS XPCTD. NOTE...THIS IS NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST GIVEN NO COLD AIR IN PLACE. A DECENT BUST POTENTIAL IS PSBL LATE TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO GENERATE ITS OWN COLD AIR FOR ANY WET SNOW TO STICK/ ACCUMULATE...MEANING THE PCPN WILL HAVE TO COME DOWN HARD ENUF TO GENERATE DYNAMICAL COLUMN COOLING INTO THE L30S. OTW...MAY JUST BE LOOKING AT A RAIN/WET SNOW MIX WITH LOWS IN THE M30S AND ONLY A MINOR SLUSHY ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY OR RAISED SURFACES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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MIXED PCPN ACROSS THE EASTERN ONE THIRD OF THE FA FRI (SNOW NORTH... RAIN/SNOW MIX DOWN TO TIDEWATER AREA...RAIN ACROSS NC) ENDS BY 18Z AS THE MSTR WITH THE DEPARTING LOW TRACKS NE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HIGH PRS BUILDING IN FROM THE W. XPCT DCRG CLDNS W TO E THRU THE DAY. HIGHS IN THE L-M40S. HIGH PRES OVER THE TN VLLY FRI NITE BUILDS EAST OVR THE MID ATLNTC RGN SAT AND SAT NITE. MEANWHILE...A CSTL TROF DVLPS IVOF GULF STREAM WALL. DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS XPCTD THRU ERLY SUN. LOWS FRI NITE M20S-L30S. HIGHS SAT 45-50. LOWS SAT NITE U20S-M30S. S/W ENRGY WILL SPAWN YET ANTHR LOW PRS SYSTM OFF THE SERN US COAST SAT NITE WITH THIS SYSTM PROGGED TO LIFT NE WELL OFFSHORE SUN. MODELS KEEP ANY SGNFCNT MSTR WITH THIS SYSTM SOUTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SND THRU 18Z SUN WITH SOME LGHT PCPN SNEAKING ITS WAY UP THE COAST ALONG THE NRN OUTER BANKS AND SERN VA DRNG THE AFTRN. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHC POPS (RAIN) ALONG THE CNTYS THAT BORDER ALBEMARLE SND WITH A BUFFER ZONE OF SLGHT CHC POPS UP TO AND INCLUDING THE TIDEWATER AREA. OTW...PT SUNNY WEST TO MSTLY CLDY EAST. COOLER ALONG THE COAST (M-U40S)...WARMER INLAND (U40S-L50S).
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH SO DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE FREEZING. PRECIPITATION OVER SE VA/NE NC ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST WILL END SUNDAY EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY. DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW...EXPECT THE PCPN TO BE SHOWERY IN NATURE. A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IS INDICATED ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 EVEN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPR 30S. PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST ON TUESDAY. AS PCPN ENDS FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT...PCPN SHOULD TURN TO SNOW TOWARD THE COAST AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE W/SW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DRY AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPR 40S MONDAY WILL LOWER TO THE LOWER 40S BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS ARE FORECAST FROM 30 TO 35 MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING AND IN THE 20S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST OF A FRONT THAT STRETCHES ALONG THE COAST WILL BRING PERIODIC LOWERING OF AVIATION CONDITIONS WITH WIDESPREAD IFR OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED AT SBY AND RIC FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY. OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING AT ORF/ECG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PSBL. MORE PCPN DEVELOPS BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH MIXED RAIN AND SNOW AT RIC AND SBY AND MAINLY RAIN ELSEWHERE. MARGINAL VFR AND BRIEF IFR WILL BE PSBL.
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&& .MARINE...
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SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE WATERS THIS MORNING, AND SHOULD CROSS THE WATERS FROM DAYBREAK THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE PUSHING JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS HAVE BRIEFLY DIMINISHED SUB-SCA IN W-SW FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL RAMP UPWARD AGAIN IN POST-FRONTAL N-NW SURGE, PERHAPS DROPPING OFF SLIGHTLY IN THE MID-LATE AFTN. HOWEVER, EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS FRONT STALLS JUST OFFSHORE AS SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AS IT PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...A STRONGER N-NW SURGE IS ANTICIPATED THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY SLIDES ACROSS SRN ONTARIO DOWN ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN THE DEVELOPING LOW AND INCOMING HIGH WILL RESULT IN THE STRONG N-NW SURGE WITH GUSTS AVERAGING 25-30 KT ALL WATERS. HAVE GONE WITH A GALE WARNING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL ZONES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...WITH THE BEST CHCS BETWEEN 09-17Z (4A- 12P). NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN PROLONGED PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS IN THE LOWER BAY OR SOUND JUST YET...AND THUS HAVE MAINTAINED STRONG SCA IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER, A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. SCA NOW IN PLACE FOR BAY, LOWER JAMES AND NRN COASTAL ZONES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTN, AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE RIVERS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE PERIODIC LULLS IN WIND SPEEDS AT TIMES THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS AFTN BUT NOT LONG ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE BREAK IN SCA CONDITIONS/HEADLINES. SEAS AVERAGE 4-6FT TDA/TNGT... BUILDING TO 6-9FT SRN COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT/FRI. WAVES ON CHES BAY AVERAGE 3-4FT...BUILDING TO 4-6FT LATE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING. WINDS FINALLY BEGIN TO DROP OFF FRI NIGHT AND EARLY ON SAT AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY SLIDES OVERHEAD AND THEN OFFSHORE BY SAT NIGHT. WINDS/SEAS/WAVES SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CONDITIONS PRIMARILY FOR SAT ONLY BEFORE THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE SE COAST. SPATIAL/TEMPORAL DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT SCA TO GALE FORCE IMPACTS APPEAR POSSIBLE BY LATER SUN MORNING INTO MONDAY. GFS/WAVEWATCH A BIT LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH LATEST 00Z/4FEB RUN...BUT HAVE CONTINUED WITH TRENDING SEAS BACK UPWARD QUICKLY ON SUNDAY/SUN NIGHT.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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RIVER FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR RICHMOND/WESTHAM AND THE MEHERRIN AT LAWRENCEVILLE DUE TO THE RUNOFF FROM THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ021>025. NC...NONE. VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ075>078. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654- 656-658. GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ632-634-650- 652. GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ632-634-650- 652. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ633. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-638.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...LSA AVIATION...LSA/MHX MARINE...BMD HYDROLOGY...ESS

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