Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 181831 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 231 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain just offshore of the southeast coast through midweek...bringing warm and dry conditions to the local area. A cold front crosses the region on Friday, bringing increased rain chances for Friday and near seasonable temperatures back to the region for the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... latest wx analysis features ~1018mb Surface High pressure offshore of the SE coast. Aloft, upper level ridging extends NE from the Gulf Coast into the TN River Valley, with persistent area of upper level low pressure now meandering east of the Bahamas. Very similar day weatherwise across the region today. Heights build over the local area as the strong/anomalous upper ridge builds across the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic Today. Building heights and 850Mb temps warming to +15-17C (+1 standard deviation) will push highs up about a category from yesterday`s maxima. Highs today generally in the low to mid 80`s (slightly cooler immediate coastal zones) under a clear to mostly clear sky. These temps will be challenge daily record max temps at our local climate sites. See Climate section below. Continued clear and mild tonight, with lows ranging through the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The upper high becomes centered from the southeast into the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday, resulting in the warmest day of the period. Record temperatures appear possible with highs climbing into mid 80`s inland, again cooler along the coast. These forecast highs are generally ~15 degrees above normal. A frontal boundary drops into the northern Mid-Atlantic region Wednesday afternoon. Higher dewpoints pool along the boundary to the north, resulting in some marginal instability nudging south across the Maryland Eastern Shore. However, with the upper ridge over the region, warm temperatures aloft should suppress any convection Wednesday afternoon across the northeast forecast area, and have maintained a dry forecast. Mild again Wednesday night with lows generally in the mid 60`s. Upper trough digs from the High Plains into the Mid Mississippi River Valley on Thursday...nudging the associated Sfc cold front east to the Appalachians by Thursday night, and to just west of the local area on Friday morning. Heights and 850mb temperatures begin to decrease across the local area on Thursday ahead of the cold front. Thus while temperatures will remain above normal, expect temperatures to be about a category lower than those of Wednesday. Highs u70s to l80s. Increasing clouds late and continued mild Thu night. Lows around 60. Front crosses the area on Friday, before pushing offshore Friday evening. Typical timing differences persist with the frontal passage, though continue to favor the more progressive ECMWF/EPS solution to the slower/deeper GFS solution. Still, given uncertainty, have nudged rain chances upward but kept in the slight to low end chance for now. Also worth monitoring is the previously referenced disturbance near the Bahamas. Incoming upper trough will interact with this system, lifting the disturbance north- Northeast, keeping it offshore of the SE coast up toward New England Thursday night through Friday night, before the system ejects into Atlantic Canada over the weekend. Best lift and moisture remain removed to the north, nearest to a wave of low pressure that will develop along the boundary along the Eastern Great Lakes. Nonetheless, a period of rain appears an increasingly good bet across the area Friday morning into the afternoon as the front crosses into the area. Daytime temperatures still several degrees above normal Friday, with highs generally in the 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Cold front continues to push well off the coast Fri night as low pres tracks NE through nrn New England. Mainly slight chc PoPs will be confined to Fri eve and nrn portions of FA. Dry/cool deep layered NW flo Sat-Sun. Gusty WNW winds Sat wane Sat night-Sun. Flo aloft becomes zonal (briefly) Mon resulting in a slight warming trend before a secondary push of dry/cool air arrives by Tue. Lows Fri night from the u40s W to m50s at the coast. Highs Sat 60- 65F. Lows Sat night from around 40F NW to near 50F at the immediate coast. Highs Sun in the l-m60s. Lows Sun night in the u40s- l50s. Highs Mon 65-70F. Low Mon night from the l40s W to l50s at the coast. Highs Tue in the l60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Sfc hi pres and upper-level ridging keep vfr conditions and SKC across the area this aftn/evening. With the sfc high offshore, winds will be out of the s/sw and up to 10-15 kt through sunset. Some guidance continues to be overly-aggressive with fog tonight, but sticking to mainly vfr conditions due to temp/dewpt forecasts tonight and winds ~5 kt. Best chance for low vsbys would be at KSBY where did include a brief period of MVFR vsbys similar to what happened this morning. Dry wx continues into Wed with a mostly sunny sky. Outlook: Dry weather/VFR conditions are expected to persist through Thursday. The next chance for showers arrives Friday as a cold front crosses the area. Dry weather returns for the weekend. && .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Sfc hi pres remains invof the Carolinas this afternnon...and will stay in place into Wed. Sfc low pres tracking into SE Canada will briefly tighten the sfc pres gradient over the waters tonight into Wed morning. SSW winds will average 10-20 kt all waters during that timeframe. Ongoing long period swells on ocean (seas mainly to 4 ft) are expected to slowly diminish through midweek. Hi pres remains invof coastal Carolinas Wed through Thu as an upper trough/sfc cold front begin to sharpen invof MS valley into OH/TN valleys. Winds will be mainly S aob 10kt with seas 2-4 ft/waves 1-2 ft. The cold front will be approaching the waters on Friday while low pres deepens well ESE of Cape Hatteras. The cold front (crossing the mid Atlantic Fri afternoon/evening) should keep the low well out to sea Fri night/early Sat. Expecting lo lvl CAA and increased WNW winds (for period of SCAs) post cold front Fri night into Sat...waning by Sun (afternoon).
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... The experimental total water level hydrographs remain unavailable at this time. We hope to have the information back online later today. In the meantime, please refer to VIMS or MDL tidal data. && .CLIMATE... Very warm conditions this week with the possibility of challenging some records listed below: * Record Highs * Tue (10/18) Wed (10/19) Thu (10/20) * RIC 88 (1938) 87 (1938) 89 (1984) * ORF 86 (2011) 87 (2007) 87 (1984) * SBY 86 (1908) 84 (1938) 84 (1984) * Record high Mins: * Tue (10/18) Wed (10/19) Thu (10/20) * RIC 67 (1980) 73 (2007) 68 (1916) * ORF 68 (1980) 73 (2007) 70 (1916) * SBY 70 (1975) 71 (2007) 68 (1916) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...MAS MARINE...ALB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ CLIMATE...AKQ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.