Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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234 FXUS61 KAKQ 231734 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 134 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Post-Tropical Storm Jose will continue lingers off the New England coast before dissipating later this weekend. Meanwhile, high pressure will continue to influence the weather pattern through early next week. Hurricane Maria is forecast to move northward between the offshore Atlantic waters and Bermuda through the early part of next week. A cold front is expected to cross the area by mid- week pushing Maria east of the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose continues to linger just of the coast of southeast New England. High pressure has centered over the Northeast. Patchy fog, some areas locally dense, has once again developed this morning over portions of the Piedmont and interior northeast North Carolina. Any remaining fog will quickly dissipate after sunrise. High pressure will allow for continued dry weather and above normal temperatures today. Highs will range from the lower 80s near the coast to the mid/upper 80s inland. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure at the surface and aloft will be in control of our weather pattern over the weekend, as PTC Jose weakens and shifts a bit further offshore. High pressure in combination with NNE flow will allow for continued dry weather and above normal temperatures. Will have to keep and eye on Hurricane Maria which will be moving north off the SE coast by Sunday and Monday. Right now Maria is expected to take a course similar to Jose, keeping it well offshore. Highs Sun-Mon will generally be in the mid 80s, except upper 70s at the beaches. Lows will range from the lower 60s inland to upper 60s near the coast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A broad upper ridge is expected to prevail Monday night through Wednesday from the Great Lakes across the Northeast Conus co- located with surface high pressure. Meanwhile, a cut-off upper low (400-200mb) is progged to drop SE from the nrn Gulf Coast to the FL peninsula. The strength of the ridge and the presence of the upper low is potentially complicating the situation with Hurricane Maria. This is resulting in a westward shift in the track with the 23/00z global models, with the tropical cyclone taking a turn toward the NW and heading toward and approaching the Outer Banks during the Wednesday/Wednesday night time-frame per 23/00z ECMWF/GFS. Note the 23/00z CMC appears too fast. Monitor the latest official forecast tracks from the National Hurricane Center. This more westward track would bring an increasing threat of more wind/higher PoPs along the coast by midweek. For now, PoPs and sky cover have been nudged up. A vigorous trough eventually pushes through the Great Lakes Thursday/Thursday night, breaking down the ridge and pushing Maria well offshore. The associated cold front crosses the area late Thursday/Thursday night, resulting in cooler conditions late in the forecast period. Highs Tuesday range from the upper 70s to low 80s, Wednesday in the upper 70s to mid 80s, low/mid 80s Thursday, and the 70s Friday. Lows Monday night through Wednesday night range from the mid 60s to around 70F, then mid 50s NW to mid 60s SE Thursday night. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR conditions prevail for the most part through the 18z TAF period, as high pressure remains in control over the area. Have maintained some MVFR overnight at KRIC/KSBY per 12Z TAF issuance. This seems reasonable given little overall pattern change, and dew points are about the same as Friday. Have kept KORF VFR through the period, as that terminal is generally not prone to nocturnal fog development. However, have opted to forecast similar consditions to Friday night at KPHF/KECG. Both these locations had at least intermittent IFR/LIFR Friday night. Since the overall pattern is unchanged from the last 24 hours, both of these sites should again see intermittent IFR/LIFR conditions after 02Z. Outlook: Generally VFR/dry conditions, with the exception of patchy morning fog, are anticipated through the Monday due to the influence of high pressure over the region. Sub-VFR conditions will be possible Tuesday through mid next week, primarily at eastern TAF sites, as moist northerly flow from Tropical Cyclone Maria overspreads the region.
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&& .MARINE... Early this morning, Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose remains centered SE of Cape Cod, and is forecast to gradually pushing ewd thru Sun while weakening. Meanwhile, Hurricane Maria was located about 350 miles east of Nassau, and is forecast to track to the NNW thru today, then track nwrd thru Wed to well off the outer banks of NC. Long period swell continues to propagate toward the coast with seas generally 3-6 ft. Some portions of the area will have seas fall at times below 5 ft over the next few days. However, the SCA for hazardous seas will continue, and will be extended thru Sun night, as energetic ESE swell will continue. Swell arrives from Maria most likely beginning Sun night, and continuing into next week. The bulk of the forecast guidance still keeps Maria just offshore Tue into Thu, before it gets kicked quickly ENE out to sea Thu night into Fri night. Based on the latest guidance, have increased winds and seas fcst for Mon thru Wed. Monitor the NHC forecast for the official forecast track of Maria. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Water levels expected to remain elevated at all sites through the weekend, but given that the swell is not as large as what it has been, they should stay just below flood. Will need to watch for additional flooding next week, especially in the bay as the swell from Maria moves into the area. High risk for rip currents for all beaches adjacent to coastal waters continues thru today, as swell/nearshore waves will be slow to subside. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>023. NC...None. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ078-084>086-099-100-523. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ095>097-524-525. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ075- 077. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...AJB NEAR TERM...AJB SHORT TERM...AJB/JDM LONG TERM...AJZ/ALB AVIATION...AJZ/WRS MARINE...TMG TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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