Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 191802 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 202 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains over the Mid Atlantic Region through the weekend...with temperatures gradually warming. The next cold front is expected to impact the region early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Midday weather analysis features ~1027mb Sfc high pressure along/just offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast extending down into the mid-south region. Sct-bkn clouds associated with a weak shortwave has pushed offshore, leaving a sunny and pleasant afternoon on light SSW winds. Forecast highs 70-75F (upper 60s along the coast) remain largely on track, with only minor changes made per latest obs. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Sfc hi pres remains invof the local through Sat as ridge aloft builds/reaches maximum amplitude. Other possible SCT-BKN CI from time to time...expecting SKC w/ temperatures averaging above normal. Lows tonight in the m-u40s inland...l50s at the immediate coast. Highs Fri in the m-u70s...l70s right at the coast. Lows Fri night in the u40s-around 50F inland...to the l-m50s at the immediate coast. Highs Sat again in the m-u70s...l70s right at the coast. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Sfc high pressure slides off the New England Coast Sat night and continues to retreat to the E into early next week. Ridge axis associated with this feature will remain over the local area through most of Sun before moving offshore. Meanwhile, mid- upper level ridge axis remains centered along the East Coast from the Mid Atlantic to the Southeast through at least Sun before shifting ewd/offshore. A deep upper level trough spans the length of the Mississippi River from the Upper Midwest to the Gulf Coast states Sun... becoming separated from its parent low (near wrn Hudson Bay in Canada) by Sun night. Sfc cold front linking the separated upper lows to cross the Midwest Sun/Sun night, Ohio Valley Mon/Mon night, and eventually cross the Mid Atlantic Region Tue/Tue night. Overall forecast is dry until Mon into Tue night with lingering showers possible Wed. Thunderstorms may also be possible Mon aftn based on current arrival of precip, however this could change if the upper trough digs deeper and delays onset of precip into Mon night. Temperatures will be around 5-10 degrees above normal Sat-Mon night. Expect highs in the 70s. Lows will warm from the lower 50s most areas Sat night (mid- upper 50s beaches) to the lower 60s by Mon night. Highs closer to normal (69-75F) on Tue with widespread rain present. A much colder Canadian airmass moves into the area behind the cold front beginning Tue night. Decent cold air advection paired with a tight pressure gradient will likely allow dewpoints to plummet while temperatures are slower to fall/respond. Lows Tue night in the upper 40s to lower 50s inland and mid to upper 50s closer to the coast. Highs Wed around 5-10 degrees below normal with readings in the lower 60s inland and in the mid 60s far SE VA/coastal NE NC. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR conditions across area terminals this afternoon, with VFR conditions expected to prevail through the 18z taf period. Some patchy ground fog possible once again late tonight (RIC/SBY/PHF). Otherwise, sky should remain clear to mostly clear through the period. Outlook: Sfc high pressure slides farther offshore on Sunday, with a cold front expected to push across the local area late Monday through Tuesday. At least periodic sub-VFR conditions in rain/lowering ceilings likely Tuesday/Wednesday.
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&& .MARINE... A large area of high pressure will continue to impact our weather pattern today. Light winds (5-10 knots) and benign seas (Generally around a foot over the Bay, 2-3 feet over the ocean) are anticipated today. A weak cold front swings through the waters on Friday morning with a wind shift to the northwest and an increase in speed to 10 to 15 knots. The bump in winds will only be temporary as strong surface high reestablishes its control over the region for Saturday and Sunday with a return to benign conditions over area waters. The next chance for significant weather over the waters does not come until early next week as a strong cold front slowly moves across the region late Monday into Tuesday. Expect an increase in southerly winds ahead of the front and strong northwesterly winds behind the front. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/BMD NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM SHORT TERM...ALB LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...MAM MARINE...AJB/ESS

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