Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 151124 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 624 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary will remain well south of the local area the into Monday as high pressure builds across New England. A series of weak low pressure areas will track along that boundary resulting in periods of unsettled weather through early in the upcoming week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Weak s/w aloft moving E and well away from the nrn Mid-Atlantic coast...taking -RA off the coast. Widespread cloudiness remains in its wake as sfc hi pres sits nearly stationary from Great Lakes-New England. Models suggest drying from the NNE today...however while CIGS likely improve today...difficult to determine just how much clearing occurs. Will have cloudy conditions to start this morning...then turning partly sunny...especially N and NE. In general...far WSW zones would have the highest chance for remaining mostly cloudy. Highes from the m40s N to around 50F. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Models continue to begin spreading moisture back NNE into the region Sun night into Mon...but w/ the region E of the ridge axis (invof TN/OH valleys)...forcing for widespread/significant pcpn (-RA) will remain weak. Thus...will have 20-40% PoPs across the piedmont to I-95 late Sun night...lowering through the day Mon. Skies remain partly cloudy longer Sun night over the E/NE so some lows in the u20s will be possible from the nrn Neck to the eastern shore...with lows in the m30s-around 40F elsewhere. Thicknesses show p-type mainly RA...though w/ temperatures aob 32F far NNE...could be light mixed p-type far NNE should pcpn make it that far E (late tonight/early Mon). Cloudy Mon with CAD setup but low PoP (generally aob 20%). Highs Mon in the l-m40s NNW to around 50F far SE. Strong sfc lo pres moves NE to the wrn Great Lakes on Tue...lifting a warm front N of the local area. Still uncertain on how much (if any) sun develops so while temps moderate, highs may not get out of the 50s (will have l60s SE for now). PoPs mainly 20-40% Tue...highest NW. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Above normal temps expected acrs the fcst area thru the extended period. Will continue to go with a blend of the ECMWF and GFS with respect to the timing/placement of fronts and the chcs for showers. Best chcs will be Tue night/Wed and again Fri night/Sat. Highs will range fm the mid 50s to mid 60s thru the period, with lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s Tue night, and ranging fm the upper 30s to upper 40s Wed night, Thu night, and Fri night. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Sfc hi pres is centered invof New England as of 06Z/15 w/ a surface ridge axis extending to the S into the Mid-Atlantic region. A stationary front is situated across SC...w/ weak sfc lo pres off the Outer Banks. Aloft...s/w is moving off the nrn Mid- Atlantic coast taking -RA off the coast. VRB CIGS are expected (MVFR/IFR) through (at least mid) morning. VSBY is generally expected to remain aoa 4SM. CIGS are expected to lift N-S w/ some clearing expected by aftn. Sfc hi pres will remain over the region Sun night into Mon...although mid and high clouds are expected to increase Monday. A warm front pushes into the FA later Mon night and lifts N of the region Tue. This could produce some MVFR cigs late Mon night into Tue morning. A cold front approaches from the NW Tue night and crosses the area Wed. This will bring a chc of rain along with degraded flight conditions. High pressure is expected to return Thu.
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&& .MARINE... A frontal boundary remains south of the area today as sfc high pres builds in from the west. A weak northerly surge is expected later this morng, with 15 kt winds staying just below SCA criteria over the Bay. Sub-sca conditions then continue early this week with high pres remaining in the vicinity and the front staying south of the area...1-2 ft waves over the Bay and 2-3 ft seas over coastal waters. A warm front lifts north through the area Tue, with winds becoming southerly Tue ahead of the next cold front which crosses the waters Wed. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...AJZ/ALB MARINE...MAS

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