Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 281845 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 245 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COASTS THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS AROUND 200-250 MILES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EWD AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE COASTLINE BY THIS AFTN. WITH BOTH RIDGE AXES LOCATED TO THE EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY TODAY IN A DECENT S-SW FLOW REGIME/WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. EXPECT WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S (UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES). && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND WARM TONIGHT WITH INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. PERSISTENT SW WINDS WILL KEEP THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXED OVERNIGHT... THUS TEMPS SHOULD RUN ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S). A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION IS LOCATED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE INITIAL PUSH OF PRECIPITATION TO BE LIGHT AND SHOWERY. HOWEVER BY MID AFTN/EARLY EVENING...A WEAK ZONE OF DEFORMATION DEVELOPS AND PRECIP MAY BECOME MORE STEADY (ALTHOUGH SCATTERED IN COVERAGE) WITH ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME ALONG THE COAST. STORM TOTAL PRECIP SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 0.15 INCHES (+/- 0.05 TO 0.10 INCHES DEPENDING ON WHERE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS). IN ADDITION...SW WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTN WITH GUSTS AVERAGING 15-20 MPH. THE WELL-MIXED CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE AGAIN...HOWEVER THE GRADIENT WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE BTWN CLOUDY/SHOWERY AREAS VERSUS SUNNY/DRY AREAS EARLIER IN THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S NW TO LOWER 80S SE. THE FRONT EXITS THE COAST WEDNESDAY EVENING AND BEGINS TO STALL WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST (ABOUT 250 MILES). THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THERE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS AND A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THIS TIME WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE WED NIGHT...LOWER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE THU NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ALSO FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON THE STALLED BOUNDARY. FOR THE TIME BEING...ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS SUPPOSED TO STAY SHUNTED SE OF THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THURS NIGHT/FRI FOR DRY WX. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE EAST COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT...WITH A STRONG SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE NE COAST ON SAT. THIS FEATURE THEN QUICKLY LIFTS NE AND WELL OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY. WITH THE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHWRS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE WHERE FORCING LOOKS THE BEST. ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AFTER A SEASONABLE DAY ON FRI...MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS FRI FROM THE UPR 50S NW TO THE MID 60 SE. HIGHS SAT/SUN MAINLY 50-55. MONDAY`S HIGHS 55-60. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT FROM THE MID 30S WEST TO THE MID 40S AT THE COAST. MANY INLAND AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE THEIR FIRST FROST/FREEZE OF THE SEASON SAT NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM NR 30 IN THE PIEDMONT TO 40 AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SIMILAR LOWS AGAIN SUN NIGHT. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. S-SW WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WED MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER WED AFTN INTO WED NIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... SSW WNDS CONTG OVR THE WTRS INTO LT WED AS SFC HI PRES INVOF SE CONUS CST TDA SHIFTS E. SPEEDS MNLY AVGG 10-20 KT. XPCG CONDS RMNG BLO SCA THRESHOLDS. CDFNT APPROACHES THE WTRS FM THE WNW WED AFTN...PUSHING ACRS THE WTRS WED NGT (BY MDNGT)...W/ WNDSHFT TO NNW BEHIND THE FNT. STRENGTH OF LO CAA BEHIND THE FNT RELATIVELY WK THOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT A SHORT PD OF INCRSD SPEEDS (LT WED NGT/EARLY THU MRNG). SFC HI PRES BUILDS OVR THE WTRS THU...THEN DISSIPATES. STRONG UPR LVL TROUGH TO CROSS THE RGN FRI NGT/EARLY SAT USHERING IN STRONG LO LVL CAA. HI END SCAS TO PTNTL LO END GALES XPCD TO START THE UPCOMING WKND. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD NEAR TERM...BMD SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...JDM MARINE...ALB

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.