Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 160759 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 359 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front passes across the Mid Atlantic today. Cool Canadian high pressure builds into the region tonight and Tuesday, and then remains over the area through the remainder of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A vigorous upper trough is digging across the Great Lakes early this morning, with low pressure lifting NE over Atlantic Canada ahead of this trough. A cold front extends to the SW of the low across New England and into the Mid-Atlantic, and locally is pushing into the Eastern VA Piedmont as of 4 am. Structurally, the cold front is anafrontal with areas of light rain on the cool-side of the boundary and currently reaching the NW Piedmont counties. Remaining mild and modestly humid across much of the local area early this morning with temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s, and dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s. The cold front will press ESE early this morning with an increase in speed as the Great Lakes trough continues to dig sewd passing through far SE VA/NE NC by late this morning. A narrow band of modest ascent will accompany the front, with PoPs of 60-70% across the local area, mainly across central VA this morning, and then shifting toward the coast and then SE portions of the area later this morning into the aftn. High temperatures will be achieved early this morning, with temperatures falling into the low/mid 60s through the day, and perhaps into the upper 50s during periods of light rain. QPF will be minimal, and generally less than 0.25".
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Surface high pressure pushes the cold front well E and S of the region tonight, and then the high builds over the area by Tuesday. Mainly clear, cool, and dry conditions are expected. Lows tonight will generally be in the low/mid 40s, with some upper 30s over the Piedmont, and upper 40s at the coast. A few isolated pockets of frost are possible over the NW Piedmont counties. Highs Tuesday should generally be 60-65F under a sunny sky. Surface high pressure will settle over the region Tuesday night and Wednesday, providing continued clear, cool, and dry conditions. Near ideal radiational cooling conditions are expected Tuesday night as any wind will diminish quickly Tuesday evening. Low temperatures range from the upper 30s to low 40s inland, with some mid 30s and possible frost possible in rural outlying areas. Closer to the coast, expect lows of 45-50F for coastal SE VA/NE NC. Highs Wednesday moderate to 65-70F.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A very tranquil weather pattern setting up for the entire medium range period with dry conditions and mild/warm temperatures. Sfc high pressure will be centered from the TN Valley to the local area Wed night, with clear skies and another seasonably chilly night with lows mainly in the 40s (except 50s at the immediate coast). A weak cold front brushes by the NE CONUS Thu/Thu night, but this will have little impact on the local area, merely shunting the sfc high a little to the S/SW. Mostly sunny with highs from the upper 60s to the mid 70s. After that, broad upper level ridge slowly builds E from the TN/OH Valley and amplifies into next weekend. Dry/mostly sunny/clear conditions to prevail, with temperatures rising a few degrees each day Fri-Sun. Highs will avg in the low-mid 70s Fri, trending up to the upper 70s/near 80 F by next Sunday. Lows will avg in the upper 40s/lower 50s Fri morning, trending up to be in the 50s to around 60 F by Sun morning. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A cold front is approaching from the NW early this morning and moving into nrn VA as of 06z. Areas of light rain are expected to accompany the front, mainly moving across central VA 10-16z, spreading toward the coast from 12-20z, and moving off the coast of SE VA/NE NC by 22z. MVFR cigs and occasional MVFR vsby are expected, with a period of IFR cigs possible mainly at ORF/ECG later this morning into early aftn. The wind will shift from SW to NNW in the wake of the front, with speeds of 10-15kt, and gusts up to 20-25kt along the coast. High pressure and a drier airmass move into the region tonight and will persist over the area through Friday. && .MARINE...
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Sfc cold front slower to arrive by about 3 hours as previously anticipated. Winds generally SW with speeds averaging 15-20kt Bay/Ocean/Lwr James River; 10kt elsewhere. Winds become N and increase as cold air advection processes commence. Speeds will average 10-20kt all waters through today. Seas build to 4-5ft north/5-6ft south by this aftn with waves 3-4ft. All SCA flags are now in effect for today through Tue. Added York and Rappahannock Rivers into SCA as well...ending at 700 AM Tue morning. A secondary push of strong winds is anticipated for tonight as high pressure builds in from the west, colder air surges down from the north, and the pressure gradient tightens up again. Speeds increase to an average of 15-25kt tonight. Seas build to 4-6ft north of Cape Charles Light and 5-8ft south this evening through mid morning Tue. Waves average 4-5ft during the same time. SCA flags will remain in effect through at least Tue aftn for Bay/Ocean/Sound/Lwr James River. Seas south of Parramore Island stay elevated to around 5ft through Tue evening...with coastal waters from VA/NC border being the last to subside below 5ft by midnight Tue night. Otherwise, high pressure resides over/near the waters Tue aftn through the rest of the week with conditions becoming more benign. Winds generally NE-E Tue evening through Wed... becoming more variable but remaining light Wed night through Thu night. Main high pressure slides offshore but is reinforced by another sfc high building over the ern half of the US. Winds to become more NW-N Fri/Fri night. Wind speeds sub-SCA Tue night through Fri night. Seas generally 2-3ft; waves 1-2ft.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ635-636. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634- 638. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ633-650-652. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ654-656. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...BMD

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