Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 271438 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1038 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS VIRGINIA THROUGH THIS MORNING... THEN STALLS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPDATE...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS SFC COLD FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCES SWD THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE NRN NECK AS OF 645 AM. MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO MORNING POPS TO ADJUST FOR LINGERING PRECIP INVOF COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE. QPF AMTS ARE AROUND 0.02 INCHES AS PRECIP STARTS TO DIMINISH. STARTING TO SEE CONVECTION KICK OFF IN CNTRL DE HOWEVER IF THE LIFT IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING...IT SHOULD STAY WELL NORTH OF THE FA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SFC COLD FRONT GENERALLY LOCATED ALONG THE SRN MD BORDER WITH VA...INCLUDING THE EASTERN SHORE. WARM SECTOR TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WITH SW-W WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. NORTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 50S WITH A QUICK SURGE OF NE-E WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH. THE DIFFERENCES ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY TEMP/DEWPOINT FORECAST THE REST OF TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS VA THIS MORNING...THEN STALLS OUT NEAR THE NC BORDER THIS AFTN. HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM THE 60S NE TO MID 70S ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S SRN VA/NE NC. PRECIPITATION GENERATION INVOF THE FRONT CONTINUES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WITH CONVECTIVE FLARE UPS RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. TRENDS OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO HAVE SHOWN A DECREASE IN ISOLATED LIGHTNING TO NOW NONE. PRECIP TRENDS WILL FOLLOW SUIT WITH A DECREASING TREND ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY AS DRIER/COOLER AIR STARTS TO INFILTRATE THE MOIST AIRMASS AND EFFECTIVELY DRIES OUT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE NEXT ROUND OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY THIS AFTN AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE END RESULT WILL BE INCREASING SHOWERS FOR INLAND VA AND ALL OF NE NC WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN PIEDMONT...SCNTRL VA...AND NE NC WEST OF CURRITUCK SOUND. DECENT LIFT ALONG THE FRONT AND SUBSEQUENTLY THROUGH THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE WILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...0-6KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES ARE SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN TUESDAY WITH VALUES AVERAGING CLOSER TO 40KT TODAY. WITH PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR PRESENT IN SOUNDING PROFILES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A POTENTIAL THREAT. SPC HAS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OF SRN VA/NE NC WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED INVOF VA/NC BORDER TONIGHT INTO THU. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RE-DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THU. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE ACROSS SRN VA/NE NC INVOF STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY IF SUNSHINE CAN BREAK THROUGH IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. PRIMARY THREATS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50S ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64...LOWER 60S VA/NC BORDER INTO NE NC. HIGHS THU IN THE 60S NE TO LOWER 70S SW. THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN INVOF SRN VA/NE NC THU NIGHT INTO FRI. PRECIPITATION STARTS TO WANE THU NIGHT AS OVERALL PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE WITH LAST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE COAST WITH A FINAL WAVE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NW. THIS SECOND WAVE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FRI AFTN DURING PEAK HEATING. AFTER WHICH...DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THERE IS VERY LIMITED FORCING/INSTABILITY PRESENT BY FRI AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED DURING FRI AFTN. HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING SHOULD BE DIFFICULT WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS PULLING THE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER INLAND AND KEEPING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE GENERALLY SATURATED. LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE 50S INTERIOR VA AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE...LOWER 60S NE NC. HIGHS FRI WILL BE SIMILAR TO THU WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S NE TO LOWER 70S SW. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S (UPPER 40S POSSIBLE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE/FAR NRN VA COUNTIES). && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF LINGERING SHOWERS. DRY WX MAKES A BRIEF RETURN SATURDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PCPN SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD MAINLY IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPS IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO CENTRAL VA THIS MORNING. REGIONAL OBS ON THE COOL-SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY INDICATE STRATUS WITH CIGS 500-800FT. SBY CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A 500FT CEILING AND THIS IS FORECAST TO LINGER TO ~16Z. ELSEWHERE...THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO ERODE AND LIFT LATER THIS MORNING. AS FOR PCPN...AN AREA OF -SHRA WILL PASS ACROSS THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. OTHERWISE...THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH EARLY TO MID-AFTN. THE FRONT WILL DROP INTO NE NC LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGING -SHRA TO THE REGION. MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN VICINITY OF THE VA/NC BORDER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SINKING SWD FRIDAY. THE CHC FOR -SHRA WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE W SUNDAY. && .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE NRN PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING PRODUCING A WIND SHIFT TO NE. THIS COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SWD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...AND EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN VICINITY OF THE VA/NC BORDER LATER THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT. A NE WIND WILL INITIALLY BE 15-20KT IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN DIMINISH TO 10-15KT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS THROUGH THE DAY. THE STRONGER NE WIND WILL RESULT IN 4-5FT SEAS N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND THIS MORNING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3-4FT BY LATE AFTN. THE CURRENT SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 4PM. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SUB- SCA CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN E-NE WIND ALONG WITH 3-4FT SEAS AND 2-3FT WAVE IN THE BAY. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PUSH SEAS TO ~5FT IN NE FLOW...WHICH COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN PREVAILS SATURDAY AFTN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W SUNDAY...AND TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650- 652.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD NEAR TERM...BMD SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...AJZ

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.