Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 171856 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 256 PM EDT Wed May 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure remains anchored off the southeast coast through Friday. A frontal boundary moves south across the local area Friday night...then stalls over the Carolinas Saturday. That front pulls back north Sunday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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Sfc hi pres remains situated invof wrn Atlantic attm...w/ highly amplified ridge along the E coast. The synoptic pattern is typical for a very warm spell of wx in the mid-Atlantic. SW winds gusty to 20-25 mph wane early this evening w/ loss of heating. After afternoon temperatures mainly from the u80s-l90s over the FA...lows tonight will be mainly 65 to 70F under SKC.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Similar conditions for Thu...w/ SW flow bringing another very warm and a tad more humid afternoon. Highs Thu again averaging u80s-l90s...though the u70s-around 80F at the beaches. Models indicating some more convection along lee trough to the W. Given continued warm air aloft and lack of any real convective trigger locally...forecast remains dry over our local area. Ahead of approaching cold front (from the NNW) Thu night- Fri...remaining very warm w/ some increase in cloudiness. Ridge breaks down aloft resulting in more of a deep layered W flow. Minimal trigger for convection into Fri afternoon and combined w/ the W flow likely to limit PoPs/convective potential. Lows Thu night from the u60s-l70s. Highs Fri in the m80s-around 90F...even to most beaches. Will have 20-40% PoPs for SHRAS/tstms Fri night as the cold front settles into the area (from the NNW). An abrupt end to the summer-like wx expected Sat as the cold front settles S of the FA in the morning. Models remain aggressive w/ widespread cloudiness Sat as NE winds (gusty to 20-30 mph...esp at the coast) ushering in (much) cooler air. PoPs will be generally aob 20%...and mainly confined to before 15Z/20. Highs in the 60s at the coast...to the m-u70s inland.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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High pressure slides farther offshore Saturday night as a shortwave tracks across the Great Lakes. Belt of moisture buckles southward Sunday as the shortwave pushes offshore and high pressure builds in its wake. The result will be silent POPs Sunday, but continued cloudy conditions. Highs range from the low to mid 40`s northeast to mid 50`s southwest thanks to northeast flow. A warm front lifts over the region Sunday night as a potent upper level low tracks into the central CONUS. Will keep mentioned of low end chance POPs across the Piedmont Sunday night as the warm front lifts over the region. Heights build over the Mid-Atlantic Monday ahead of an upper level low tracking across the Midwest. Slightly warmer and dry (for now), but still partly cloudy to mostly cloudy Monday. Highs in the mid 40`s northeast to mid 50`s south. Low end POPs return Monday night and Tuesday across the west as moisture increases ahead of the system. Highs Tuesday in the low to mid 50`s northeast to low 60`s southwest.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions across area terminals this morning are expected to continue through the TAF period as high pressure lingers offshore through late week. Southwest winds are anticipated on Wednesday, becoming breezy for the afternoon, 10-15 knots with gusts to ~20 knots. Outlook: High pressure off the coast dominates wx through late week, with a summer-like pattern taking hold on SW winds. The next chance for scattered convection arrives late Friday into Saturday, as a frontal boundary stalls over the area. && .MARINE... Sfc high pressure settles over the wrn Atlantic through Fri night with mid-upper level ridging keeping any precipitation at bay. Winds S-SSW aob 15kt and persisting from this direction through Fri. Wind speeds increase late tonight through Fri morning and remain below SCA. A brief period of low-end SCA conditions (gusts barely 20kt Bay/seas barely 5ft nrn coastal waters) may be possible after midnight Thu night until roughly sunrise Fri morning. Seas generally 2-3ft with periods of up to 4ft nrn coastal waters late Thu aftn through Fri morning. Waves 1-2ft and possibly 2-3ft during same timeframe as higher seas. A cold front approaches the waters from the north on Fri and is expected to stall across the cntrl waters by Sat. Stronger onshore/NE winds develop and increase along/north of the boundary late Fri night into Sat. Low-end SCA conditions may be possible on Ches Bay for gusts to 20kt and coastal waters for seas building to 4-6ft. Although winds diminish below 15kt Sat night into Sun, the persistent onshore direction should keep seas elevated for most of Sun before subsiding below 5ft. The stalled front transitions into a warm front and is expected to slowly lift north of the waters during Sun...causing winds to shift to the SE. Persistent onshore period/swell should keep seas around 2-4ft Sun night into Mon. Waves 1-2ft Fri... increasing to 2-3ft Fri night once the boundary stalls over the waters. Persistent onshore swell and higher seas on the ocean should allow waves to build to 4ft in the mouth of Ches Bay Sat night. After which, waves average 1-3ft. && .CLIMATE... Here are the record highs for Wednesday (5/17)... Record Location High Year -------- -------- ------ Richmond 94 1974 Norfolk 93 1941 Salisbury 90 1944 Elizabeth City 95 1941 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MAM NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...AJB/MAM MARINE...BMD CLIMATE...

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