Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 210759 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 359 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND PUSH INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC HIGH PRESSURE STILL WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY EXTENDING ENE FROM THE SFC LOW TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. SEEING SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT...WITH WEAK TROUGHING INTO THE TN VALLEY AND WRN GULF OF MEXICO...AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING WELL TO THE NORTH ACRS CANADA. WARM/MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH DEW PTS INTO THE LOWER 70S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA (UPPER 60S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS). A DECENT SIZED AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAS MOVED INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND IS SLOWLY DRIFTING N/NE. WOULD BE NICE TO SEE THIS MAKE IT INTO AREAS OF METRO RICHMOND WHERE THE RAINFALL WOULD BE WELCOME CONSIDERING LESS THAN 1" HAS BEEN RECORDED IN SOME AREAS OVER THE PAST MONTH. MAY BE DIFFICULT FOR THIS TO OCCUR HOWEVER AS NAM/GFS DEPICT RISING SFC PRESSURE FROM 06-12Z FROM THE NORTH. LATEST MSAS SHOWS SOME MODEST PRESSURE FALLS HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 3 HRS SO THERE IS SOME HOPE THE SHOWERS MAKE IT AT LEAST A FEW COUNTIES FARTHER NORTH THROUGH 12Z. HAVE LIKELY POPS IN SOUTH CENTRAL VA THROUGH 12Z...TAPERED TO CHC POPS OF 30-50 AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL VA. FARTHER EAST THINK THE PRECIP WILL GENLY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK..AND PERHAPS UNTIL THE AFTN AS HEATING DEVELOPS MORE INSTABILITY. THIS AFTN...WILL FOCUS HIGHEST POPS ACRS INTERIOR NE NC AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA...WITH GENLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE ERN SHORE WHERE IT WILL REMAIN MORE STABLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD IN CHECK TO SOME EXTENT WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER TODAY. WARMER GUIDANCE HAS GENLY VERIFIED BETTER OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT MAV NUMBERS LOOK A BIT TOO HIGH TODAY SO HAVE TRIMMED ABOUT 2 DEGREES OFF THESE VALUES...YIELDING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 80S (UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST). SOME SPOTS IN CENTRAL VA MAY GET INTO THE UPPER 80S DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF AFTN SUNSHINE AND PRECIP COVERAGE. SEVERE WX NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH MINIMAL SHEAR...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE (ESPECIALLY ACRS THE SOUTH) GIVEN PWATS RISING TO 1.5" N TO NEAR 2" SOUTH. WILL LINGER SOME EVENING POPS OVER THE SOUTH BUT OVERALL SO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING OVERNIGHT FOR MORE THAN 20% POPS. WARM/HUMID WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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STUCK IN AN UNSETTLED/MURKY PATTERN SFC-ALOFT THROUGH TUE. ONE PIECE OF UPR TROUGH EXITS CANADIAN MARITIME THROUGH TUE...W/ TRAILING PIECE LINGERING INVOF ERN GULF STATES. MEANWHILE...STRONG RIDGE RMNS ANCHORED FM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...HI PRES TO RMN SITUATED FM NRN MDATLC TO CANADIAN MARITIMES...W/ WK TROUGH FOUND E OF THE CAROLINA CST. DYNAMICS/FORCING FOR PCPN ON TUE APPEAR WEAKER THAN MON...AS PIECE OF SFC HIGH SETTLES OFF THE NRN MID ATLC COAST. WILL ONLY CARRY ~30% CHC POPS (MAINLY AFTN/EVENING) INLAND AND 20% OR LESS CLOSER TO THE COAST. SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE SUN ON TUE WITH SLOW WARMING TREND/ HIGHS 85-90 F WELL INLAND TO LWR-MID 80S NEAR THE COAST. BY WED...NEXT TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES INTO THE NE/MDATLC RGNS ON WED...PUSHING THE NEXT SFC CDFNT TWD THE FA (BY LT WED). LO LVL FLO BECOMES MORE SSW ON WED...RESULTING IN BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS AND TEMPS RESPONDING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV SEASONAL NORMALS. POPS TO RMN 20-30% ON WED...HIGHS INTO THE LWR 90S INLAND WITH 85-90F NEAR THE COAST.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW LATE THURSDAY...BEFORE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. INCREASED TSTM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY (ESPECIALLY AFTN) DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. WILL CARRY SOLID CHC POPS (30-50%)...HIGHEST WEST. ASSUMING THE COLD FRONT IS ABLE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BEST PCPN CHANCES WOULD BE LIMITED TO SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSET TO THE FRONT. THERE IS SOME INDICATION FROM THE GFS/ECMWF THAT NORTHERN AREAS COULD BE DRY ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT QUITE READY TO COMPLETELY BITE ON THAT IDEA GIVEN THE TOUGHNESS OF FRONTS TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH SOLID CHC POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL CARRY SOME LOW END 20-30% POPS AREA-WIDE NEXT WEEKEND FOR TYPICAL DIURNAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION. HIGHS THURS IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S. HIGHS FRI-SUN IN THE 80S. LOWS THRU THE PERIOD IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... RATHER MOIST NE THRU SE FLO WILL CONTINUE OVR THE TAF SITES TODAY THRU TUE. WHILE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...EXPECT MVFR AND EVEN POSSIBLY IFR CIGS OVR SBY/PHF/ORF/ECG EARLY THIS MORNG AND AGAIN EARLY TUE MORNG. ISLTD TO SCTD PCPN IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT SBY THIS AFTN AND TUE AFTN.`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