Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 251854 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 254 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THEN CONDITIONS BECOME WARM AND DRY ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPDATE...REMOVED ALL PRECIP FROM FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY. ALTHOUGH SHORTWAVE MOISTURE IS STREAMING ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA AS OF 1100 AM...RADAR ECHOES SHOW NO RETURNS ACROSS INTERIOR VA AND ALL OF NE NC. ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE WHERE LIGHT DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR...OTHERWISE THIS AREA WILL BE MOSTLY DRY BUT CLOUDY TODAY. DRY AIR TEMPORARILY MOVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...THUS THE DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH WARMER TEMPS IN FAR SE AREAS (HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S/MID 50S OR SO AT THE BEACHES) WHERE THERE IS A LACK OF CLOUD COVER IN AN ONSHORE FLOW REGIME. CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FARTHER WEST AND NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW-MID 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... FA IN BTWN DEPARTING HIGH TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRS TO THE NW TONITE. SLY WINDS AID IN THE INCREASE IN MSTR TONIGHT WITH THE BEST SUPPORT FOR MEASURABLE PCPN (CHC POPS) AFTR MIDNIGHT. WARMER WITH EVENING LOWS IN THE M-U40S NORTH TO M50S SOUTH. STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TMPS AFTR MIDNIGHT. CHALLENGING FCST WRT PCPN COVERAGE THURSDAY AS MODELS DEPICT SHWR CHCS DURING THE ERLY MORNING...A LULL IN COVERAGE WITH EVEN SOME PRTL SUNSHINE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND ERLY AFTN THEN ADDNTL SHWR ACTIVITY DVLPNG LATE AFTN AND INTO THE EVENING. SO NOT A COMPLETE WASHOUT DESPITE THE HIGH CHC/LIKELY POP FCST. SLGHT CHC THUNDER WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 WHERE SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS NOTED. THIS FCSTD LULL WILL AID IN TMPS BEING ABLE TO RISE WELL INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES XCPT NEAR 70 ALONG CSTL SCTNS AS FA REMAINS IN WRM SCTR. BREEZY AS S-SW WINDS GUST BTWN 15-25 MPH...30 MPH COAST. MAIN COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE THU EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...BRINGING BEST PRECIP CHANCES TO THE REGION. KEPT THE INHERITED POPS (HIGH CHC/LIKELY). WARM AHEAD OF FROPA WITH TMPS FALLING OFF INTO THE M40S-L50S BY 12Z FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW ON FRI AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE AREA...USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS. LOW CHC SHWR ACTIVITY AS ANY HEATNG WILL ACT ON LEFTOVER MOISTURE. TMPS SOME 20-25 DEGREES COLDER FRI THAN THUR. GIVEN THE CLOUDS/SHWR CHCS/N-NW WINDS..WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED TMPS ALONG THE COAST CLOSER TO THE ACTUAL WATER TMPS. HIGHS FROM THE U40S TO NR 50 ALONG THE COAST...L-M50S WEST OF THE CHES BAY. GFS QUICKER THAN ECMWF IN PUSHING THE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSCTD MSTR OFFSHORE. QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE PCPN EXITS BEFORE THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WOULD HAVE P-TYPE ISSUES ACROSS THE LWR MD ERN SHORE WHERE BUFFER SNDGS SHOW THE PSBLTY OF SOME MIXED PCPN LATE FRI NIGHT THERE. WILL CARRY CHC POPS IN THE EVENING LOWERING TO SLGHT CHC AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY. LOWS IN THE 30S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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LOW PRES CONTS TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA SAT NGT...W/ HI PRES AND DRYING/COOL WX SUN. A CDFNT WILL PUSH ACRS THE RGN SUN NGT ACCOMPANIED BY VRB CLDS/LO CHC SHRAS (ESP N PORTION). HI PRES BUILDS ACRS INTO THE RGN MON INTO WED PROVIDING NR SEASONABLE CONDS. LOWS SAT NGT IN THE U20S-M30S. HIGHS SUN U40S-M50S. LOWS SUN NGT 35-40F. HI TEMPS MON/TUE FM THE M50S TO 60S. HIGHS WED FM THE L60S TO ARND 70F.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS OF 18Z THIS AFTN...WINDS AVG 5-10 KT AND ARE BEGINNING TO SHIFT FROM E/NE TO MORE OF A SE DIRECTION. HAVE INCLUDED SOME MVFR CIGS FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS AT KECG/KORF AS SOME STRATO-CU ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. ELSEWHERE...CIGS AVG 3-5 K FT. HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF LOWER CLOUDS/VBSYS UNTIL LATER TONIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING PER LATEST TRENDS IN OBS AND GUIDANCE. EXPECT SOME PATCHY -RA/-DZ AFTER 06Z. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE AT THEIR WORST FROM 08Z-14Z...LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KRIC/SBY...MVFR ELSEWHERE. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN BEFORE CEILINGS LIFT BACK TO VFR LEVELS. BREEZY SSW FLOW 20-25 KT THU AFTN...AS PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURS. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH POTENTIAL FOR AFTN SHRA AND/OR TSRA. RATHER...THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE BULK OF PRECIP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH CIGS DROPPING DOWN TO 1000 TO 2000 FT IN MODERATE RAIN FROM 06-15Z/FRI. WINDS SHIFT SHARPLY TO THE N/NE DURING THIS PERIOD AND AVG 10-20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT KORF/KPHF/KECG. SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER FRI AFTN/FRI NIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE N/NW...CIGS LIFT...AND PRECIP DIMINISHES. DRY/VFR CONDITIONS SAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .MARINE... E-NE WINDS AOB 15 KT WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SOUTH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH LOW- END SCA WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN AND CURRITUCK SOUND. GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN. MARGINAL SCA WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON THE CHES BAY...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ATTM TO HOIST AN SCA. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5-7 FT THURSDAY...WITH WAVES 3 FT ON THE BAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS QUICKLY VEERING TO NORTHWEST BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ633-634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD/MPR NEAR TERM...BMD/MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...JDM/LKB MARINE...ALB/JDM

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